Michael Burry Is Betting On Another Collapse
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- Опубликовано: 6 июл 2024
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This SEC filing released last week gives us a snapshot of Michael Burry’s current stock portfolio. It shows he sold every single share in 14 companies he previously owned, used the cash to double down on some of the ones he decided to keep, and to invest in 5 brand new stocks.
So let's take a look at The Big Short star’s $200 Million portfolio, a deep dive into the 16 stocks revealed by his latest US filing and also a stock that isn’t listed, one that’s hidden in UK regulatory filings.
TIMESTAMPS
INTRO 0:00
BURRY BUYS GOLD 0:54
INFLATION R2 5:09
HIS BIGGEST STOCK 10:19
3 STOCKS, 1 STORY 11:35
BURRY'S SECRET 13:16
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Disclaimer:
The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder.
Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances.
Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
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oh the one that says that they have been doing therapy forever?
Better Help is a scam, change sponsors.
I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.
Got it! Buying stocks during a recession when prices are down could be a good move. You might get them at a lower price and sell later when they go up. Just do your homework and be aware of the risks before diving in!
Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
That's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you.
“Carol Vivian Constable” is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Her name is 'MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH' She maintains an online presence. just make a simple search for her name online.
SUNITA SUZANNE BYG is her name,You are most likely to find more info when you look her up
The U.S. economy can actually get better if only the govt can start making better decisions for the sake of it's citizens, cos' they've really made life more difficult for its residents. Hyperinflation has left the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. Its already eating into my entire $620k retirement portfolio. Like where else can we invest our money with less risks?
Just get a financial planner straight up! personally, I would invest in etf and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but I'm comfortable in my financial environment.
I agree. Exactly why I now work with one. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, during the covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence researched for advisors and thankfully came across one with grit. As of today, my cash reserve has yielded from $350k to nearly $1m
Who is your advsor please? if you don't mind me asking
Finding financial advisors like Carol Vivian Constable who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
Sometimes Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.
Nobody knows anything, you need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin ,While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving
It's possible to hire a skilled financial planner especially if you're not one yourself. I hired one after my retirement portfolio took a hit in April 2023 due to the crash. The planner devised a defensive strategy that protected and profited from my portfolio during this red season. I've made over $250k since then.
who is your guy and how good is he / she ?
The decision on when to pick a fin- consultant is a very personal one. I take guidance from Sharon Ann Meny to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Trustworthiness is also part of the issue: Entrusting someone with your finances requires a high level of trust
Interest rate cut and geopolitical uncertainty intensified a seII off in Big Tech Mkt darling Nvidia(NVDA)lost 10%, while Amazon(AMZN)saw a drop of more than 2%. Apple(AAPL)decreased 1%. I'm curious, which st0cks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth. I've allocated $350k for lnvestment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. Like spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?
My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Crash fatigue is showing with most people. Most are so tired of hearing about the worse even though its true. We are being boiled slowly in the pot! I want to diversify my $250k portfolio.
I completely agree. It's not just about the dividends or profits, Diversifying a portfolio can be a smart move and i always advise one gets a professional to help out.
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash that comes afterwards. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date
Could you possibly recommend the FA you've consulted with?
I'm hesitant to make recommendations like this online so I can't drop her contact here, but you could look her up yourself and contact her if you wish. Her name is *Sharon Lynne Hart.*
Thank you for this. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to connect with her.
The whole talk about "reverse" market crash (real estate and stock market) basically argues that we are nowhere near done with inflation and that we might actually experience "hyperinflation" in the near future combined with accelerating poverty levels across the nation or going thru a historical economic depression...those are the extreme conditions that have produced the reverse market crashes in most examples I've seen. I personally don't see anything that extreme coming, but who knows.
You know there are pictures of the real Michael Burry, instead of using the actor Christian Bale.
Michael Burry doesn't look like Michael Burry. You gotta use Christian Bale.
That won't affect the outcome.
BATS didn't slash their dividend. There was a stock split and they started to pay every quarter instead of twice a year. The dividend has not been reduced for the last 25 years,
Investors are extremely alarmed by the impending recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates. My $600,000 stock portfolio has lost 25% of it’s value. Whats the best way to hedge my portfolio to make profit in this coming recession
I guess it's important to reassess your investment strategies based on current market conditions. You should also consider a market expert to guide you
Having the correct plan in place is crucial; my portfolio is well-suited to each season of the market and recently experienced a 100% increase from early last year. My CFP and I are working on a 7-figure target, albeit this could take until Q3 2024.
I need guidance so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can i reach this advsor?
She goes by ‘’Lauren Marie Ehlers'’.... I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her
He is always betting on a collapse lol
Keeps trying to relive that high school touchdown
He will have the Last laugh.
That’s what I was gonna say!. lol he said this in 22 a bunch.
Kind of his gimmick yo
Well everyone kicks can forward instead of looking to a mirror and take a hit. Each time problem comes bigger and bigger. When or what makes it eventually break is always a surprise for everyone
Great video! I really enjoyed this topic
I think what you may be missing about Gold is that it is not an investment exactly. It is money. It is money that does not devalue with inflation, like all paper money in circulation. So when inflation strikes the goods and services you can buy with paper money decreases in line with inflation. Whereas priced in Gold, the goods and services are not more expensive. If this thesis is correct, then while Gold is not productive and does not have a 'yield', compared to paper money it does have a yield, which is the inflation rate.
Misleading title- bait and switch.
What website has this information
This will be his 3rd collapse call in 2 years. Of course you'll be right if you call it every year
8th
Most people over-read into what he does. He is a value investor, so will always put money into things he thinks is undervalued. People often think it’s because he’s predicting some macro event.
It takes years for a macro correction to occur. He’s been calling it since 2021-2022 and housing prices, at least here in FL are at the same price as they were 2 years ago and not selling. Inventory is spiking here and quite a few American manufacturers from John Deere to small machine shops are laying people off. Something is coming.
Great podcast👍
What is the best stock to short?
"Gold has no intrinsic value"? What about its use in electronics and jewelry--not to mention that its malleability and resistance to tarnishing make it an ideal form of money.
Ehm sorry Gold is money actually
Most gold isn't used. Most sits in vaults. It really doesn't get used. Now silver. Well we cannot have today's society without silver.
@@KoDeMondo Gold is not money. It never was.
I think he means productive value
@@ShreendgGold is money because it has intrinsic value in this case like all precious metals it comes in the form of the source being finite. What the world perceives as “money” today isn't money at all but currency. More specifically fiat currency which means its backed by nothing. It perceived value comes from consumer confidence which is financial speak for “I think therefore it is.”
Whether or not Burry is a perma-bear as some like to say on here, I like the approach he takes to stock-picking. It’s refreshing and helpful to see his 13F filings as I’ve made a few decisions very similar to his in the past couple of years. Turned out well so far but you do have to be more active on these picks than the average investor would like.
Doesn't he always?
yup
Like the new sponsor - well done
Interesting that you would compare GC to the consumer price index.
Isn't that $80m+ secret position just his investments in water in one way or another whether direct or indirect?
Can you talk potentially about resources like GOLD/Palladium but as ETFs? Is there a real deal with not "owning" the physical gold?
Your CPI graph with gold. Was CPI calculated with 1985 rules like should or new rules which is not really showing inflation…?
Oups!
Every tweet he makes it’s just material for you guys. As soon as he predicts another collapse you guys run and make a video about it. I get it… he’s a genius for seeing the 2008 collapse ahead of everyone else. But other than that, what other genius moves has me made? He’s a very odd investor, very unpredictable. Goes all in on a particular stock and then 3 months later completely exits his position. Forever he will be a legend for predicting the housing bubble and a lot of people follow him to see whats his next prediction is and also for RUclipsrs to make another video on what he said or on what he just tweeted.
BATS didn´t cut their dividend in 2017. They changed from 2 dividend payments a year, to 4.
They also did a stock split.
They are 1 year away from being a dividend aristocrat and they have an interesting payout ratio compared to their free cash flow.
Nice video despiste that error !!!
Keep them coming.
Was about to ask about that, thanks. The chart clearly goes down by half but hits twice as often, for (about) the same annual dividend.
It's an ad for gold
In monetary history, 100% of currencies fail (100%!!! Since the Roman times) When it does, you want to own gold/silver because is real money, not fiat money. Or you want to use gold/silver to exchange for the new currency (if happens).
Gold is not taxed, at least where I live.
Been years since i posted on your channel. I think gold is more or less a hedge against your own currency and a insurance incase your currency goes to the dumps. Sort of like whats happenijg to the japanese yen, they saw its value fly to the moon whereas usa has not. Citizins in mayanar and turkey probably are probably glad they own some of that yellow metal
I love how so many are so terrified of a crash they can only lash out and make fun of people. Most here have only seen stocks go up in theur trading lives. Most are so scared of what is coming and cannot be stopped. Its ok when something really bad happens most people scream or freeze and do not know what to do. Few will act instantly accordingly. Most would rather never think of bad things that can happen. Me i prefer to be prepaired for alot. My family refuses to speak of any of it. Thats ok because my kids will be stronger for it and will benefit from their dad not being afraid to think critically
Spot on
Gold and silver in measured in troy ounces not standard ounces. And 400 troy oz works out to roughly 12.5 kilos or 27.5 pounds.
Its probably cash he'll scoop up company's after a crash, Buffet has a large cash position as well. They are planning something.
Gold is not an inflation hedge.
The worse conditions get, the more people will smoke (and drink) I guess. I actually bought Japan Tabacco a during the pandemic because they send stockholders with over 100 shares a big box of instant ramen and they were yielding over 5%. They dipped 25% when Japan cut ties with Russia but now they've doubled in value and are still yielding. They are going to stop sending ramen next year though, so...
I have never thought in my lifetime that I will witness the US dollar retribute . I know this will have a major impact on my $300k portfolio. As a boomer I'm seeking for ways to navigate the market.
Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Amber appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call.
BTI also produces Velo which is becoming more popular.
One success doesn’t make an expert
Doesn’t mean it’s not coming but he’s been thinking this for a while
From last 4 years he is doing production nothing happening 😅
Question how many has he got right ,i belive majority of is predicted were wrong
But when he was right he went big, probabilities are a thing Afterall
yeah, he predicts crashes pretty much every year
1
You are a hoss. Peace!
Curious, please like or dislike to show your opinion,
Are we currently in a bubble?
He will go bankrupt betting against the market this time.
This kind of repetitive content, trying to predict a crash because Michael burry burped or sneezed, is getting really annoying, seriously, it has been the same thing for years now.
For gods sake do something original already
When berkshire decides to sit on 180 billion in cash it should raise your eyebrow. It might not happen in the next 2 years but I doubt we have to wait another 5. Worth a thought.
@@Christoffer424 A crash is unlikely while the government continues to support private sector balance sheets with deficits
Exactly, you'd think his other failed predictions would stop people treating him like a prophet but i guess not. If you want a market predictor with an actual good track record check out a guy called Mike Norman on here
@@Christoffer424 yes but if you check previous years, Berkshire has been progressively holding more and more cash on hand for the past decade or so.
It could be them preparing for something
It could be a function of the company growing
It could be a function of inflation
It could be just a good business practice
And i think its most likely all of the above.
Bottom line is, nothing has really changed or happened that requires a new video about it.
Of course i understand its a way to keep the channel going and growing
But it really is getting too much.
Of course nobody owes anything to me, im just saying i used to love this channel, but now im mostly let down every time i see a new but not so new video
When the dollar goes down gold goes up..
Silver always out performs gold
Better help therapist aren't always licensed they are basically scamming people, please do a better check on your sponsors
Sad to see you taking sponsorship from better help, I'm not certain you've done your due diligence on them.
I buy deep out of the money puts on the major indexes each month awaiting a stock market collapse far worse than the 89 percent drop top to bottom from the '29 crash. I look in the mirror each morning and pat myself on the back for being so intelligent.
Buy cheap sell high.
Odd that he’s investing in BATS s the UK is banning smoking entry for a specific age group which will cause a decline in profits from the Uk and a possible contagion to other countries should their governments think this is a vote winner.
If I owned garbage like that I'd be selling it as fast as I could all of it too. I'll be buying deep out of the money puts on the major indexes each and every month starting this middle of September.
Betting on China
Im proud to be part of the 0,1% of under 18
gold is a great inflation hedge if you think in decades instead of quarters. when interest rates are 3x inflation, it wont keep up, but then the money supply triples, it will catch up. biden, Lincoln, Napoleon and Caesar all buy a new outfit with a one ounce gold coin.
No burry, i'm not strong enough for another.
buying individual gold miner or gold streamer stocks is better than buying physical gold or spot gold etfs. Better performance and more cost effective. my recommendations: GFI or WPM
Honestly speaking I highly respect Dr. Burry. He's been right on many occasions throughout his career but his market timing sucks.
Always short and then spread negativity
Does it matter? He is a billionaire?
First 😂
Always love Michael Burry stock analysis! Thanks
Yield curve inverted for 2 years now. Still waiting for this crisis. Yawn. Soon....
The crisis unfolds when the yield uninverts.
Gold actually has done MUCH worse then those charts show. Take a look at an inflation adjusted chart of gold's price, gold has STILL not surpassed it's inflation adjusted all time high set in the very early 1980's. And worse yet, if you held gold all that time you'd owe taxes on all of those fictional "gains" that are really just inflation. Plus those numbers also show that the gold is likely near the all time inflation adjusted high that it will ever achieve due to the current inflation fears that both those periods have in common.
You’ve got to be high. The charts clearly show that gold has increased in value…
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Sharon Marissa Wolfe because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more
I try to listen to contrary opinions as the market is in a bullish phase. However, Burry seems to be a perma-bear who has forecasted eight of the last three recessions. Also, I can't agree with investing any money in China when their auditing processes are so suspect.
If predictions were 100% right you would be just stating the obvious.
"gold just sits there and looks pretty"...
This is just ridiculous, stopping the video after hearing it. Cant believe video has this many likes. Educate yourself on gold
I guess he is hoping for high returns if the stock rebounds.
Some investors might also have insider knowledge or use it to diversify their portfolio. However, this strategy is very risky and requires careful research.
You're right when you said it's risky !
That's why it's nice to get accurate data from a good financial analyst like Nelson Maynard Fisher.
Is he that good?
Nelson Maynard Fisher once helped a family recover from financial hardship by creating a tailored investment plan that not only stabilized their finances but also secured their future.
Guy is the definition of a broken clock
He’s predicted 37 of the last 2 recessions correctly to be fair
burry is too quick to see doom, and the older he gets the more he sees shadows of monsters.
we're about to enter the very early stage of a long term easing and growth cycle. might be the last one before ai takes over, and it will be the biggest.
Don't worry he's betting on China 🤣
Oh fun fact. Everyone sais nothing can happen before the election. That makes me pay attention for sure
1980, 2000, 2008 - I don’t know where that idea comes from. Because the opposite seems to be true
do the opposite
Overrated😂😂
Guess he’s finally lost his mind. The gold standard didn’t work, that’s why we’re here.
“The government told me that government is good during my government school , how could anyone say it’s bad?!”
Exactly, we were averaging 4 recessions every decade on the gold standard and had to abandon it a bunch of times and clowns still want to go back to that
@@grimaffiliations3671 Wow that makes sense because gold would fix liquidity and ability to print new money.
@@grimaffiliations3671 But now, we get fewer but bigger recessions. Recessions are a necessary evil to remove the inefficiencies out of the economy. Instead, we pay for these constant economic bailouts with a weaker currency, higher costs, and record personal, government, and corporate debt.
@@toinengwyn3935 not true at all, none of our recession since we left the gold standard have been as bad as the ones we had while on the gold standard. Otherwise they'd be called depressions, and depressions are a relic of the gold standard era
He’s been betting on a recession since 2018
Burry is a perma bear. I don't think following his lead is a good option for long term retail investors.
Agreed, he ll predict it 5000 times, be wrong 4999 times and the last time he is right he will say shit like i saw it coming and i warned everyone
Bright Green Corp. BGXX
Gamestop - GMX
SELL!!!
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.