Warren Buffett’s Alarming Stock Market Prediction

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  • Опубликовано: 29 окт 2024

Комментарии • 366

  • @HamishHodder
    @HamishHodder  5 дней назад +227

    link to the article is in the description :)

    • @CesarMalacon
      @CesarMalacon 17 часов назад

      When did you hit 200k? Congratulations! Well deserved.

  • @Raniyanhunter
    @Raniyanhunter День назад +366

    I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $250,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?

    • @garnold-l5p
      @garnold-l5p День назад +1

      Personally, I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experienced one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.

    • @Mlanderos-t9e
      @Mlanderos-t9e День назад +1

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

    • @Anessa-gibson
      @Anessa-gibson День назад

      How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

    • @Mlanderos-t9e
      @Mlanderos-t9e День назад +1

      I'm very cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like Teresa L. Teresa I've worked with her for some years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.

    • @Anessa-gibson
      @Anessa-gibson День назад +1

      I just curiously Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I sent her an email and i hope she responds soon.

  • @RomanFranklin-lr3ri
    @RomanFranklin-lr3ri 2 дня назад +138

    It seems like we’re hearing more predictions about a potential stock market correction soon. If there’s truth to it, now might be a wise time to re-evaluate the risk exposure in our portfolios, especially with so many sectors facing challenges

    • @JoshuaMartins-sr7ez
      @JoshuaMartins-sr7ez 2 дня назад

      The possibility of a market downturn has a lot of people worried. I’m seeing more recommendations to hold cash or look for safe-haven assets, but it’s hard to tell if this is precautionary or a real forecast of things to come.

    • @ArianaFelicia-cw7oq
      @ArianaFelicia-cw7oq 2 дня назад

      There are some bearish predictions pointing to a potential dip in tech stocks, which have been strong for so long. This could really shake things up for growth investors if even a portion of those predictions come true

    • @SergioRomano-nj8eb
      @SergioRomano-nj8eb 2 дня назад

      With rising interest rates and debt concerns, a lot of economic forecasts are not very optimistic. Some experts are even calling for a full market reset, which would significantly impact both short-term and long-term plans.

    • @TeresaMicheals
      @TeresaMicheals 2 дня назад

      Given the recent volatility, some analysts are warning of a prolonged bear market. It’s a reminder to stay diversified and perhaps consider assets that perform well in uncertain economic conditions, like bonds or commodities

    • @NicholasSebastin
      @NicholasSebastin 2 дня назад

      Some forecasters are noting that corporate earnings could take a big hit if consumer spending continues to weaken, especially with higher living costs and debt levels affecting budgets. This could lead to a ripple effect through the market, impacting a lot of different sectors.

  • @theartofarbitrage
    @theartofarbitrage 5 дней назад +135

    The man is making the biggest market forecast without saying a word

    • @afonsodeportugal
      @afonsodeportugal 5 дней назад +24

      The emperor needs not to speak. His subjects fear his every gesture.

    • @marcoseggi7274
      @marcoseggi7274 5 дней назад

      ​@@afonsodeportugalproductivty crisis, late stage capitalismby design

    • @13thbiosphere
      @13thbiosphere 4 дня назад +3

      Most of the markets are controlled by artificial intelligence not the old human panic

    • @ansbis
      @ansbis 4 дня назад

      @@13thbiosphere interesting thought...

    • @rallyrcrr
      @rallyrcrr 4 дня назад +1

      The emperor has no clothes

  • @newhampshirelifestyle4233
    @newhampshirelifestyle4233 3 дня назад +29

    It is strange that Warren Buffet claimed, "you should never hold cash, never get out of the market, and nobody can predict the market". Here he is doing the opposite of what he suggested.

    • @gen-X-trader
      @gen-X-trader 3 дня назад +5

      His problem is he is very size limited. He has so much money that he literally would move the market in a lot of the individual securities that he's traditionally known for buying. Why he doesn't index more in the s&p 500? Now that's a question I haven't seen anyone ask him that does make a lot of sense

    • @sahilsharma8629
      @sahilsharma8629 2 дня назад +6

      He is liar, he does the opposite what he says, like he says I drink 5 cokes daily?

    • @carterembrey1393
      @carterembrey1393 2 дня назад

      NICE REMINDER TO STAY INVESTED...THANKS. OLD AGE VISITS US ALL
      HE ALSO IS LEAVING HIS FAMILY GREAT WEALTH THAT HE PROMISED HE WOULDNT☆

    • @GuapLord5000
      @GuapLord5000 2 дня назад

      Did you watch the entire video. This is discussed in it.

    • @EtherealSpectrum
      @EtherealSpectrum 2 дня назад +2

      man ....his "cash" delivers 1bn for BH every month lol. Most of the cash is parked in Treasury bills.... He never holds just cash except a percentage to pay unexpected bills...He is a wise person

  • @npaul3008
    @npaul3008 5 дней назад +69

    The problem now is that retirement of literally everyone going to retire from now and forever to come is tied to the stock market. A 17 year period of "no growth" will destroy a hugh portion of 401Ks

    • @krismicinski
      @krismicinski 5 дней назад +11

      Meh, destroyed is a big word. Many of these people will move significant portions of their portfolios into things like dividend funds or the like. Retirees could *never* count on consistent compounding returns over *any* 10-year period in history.

    • @caryphillips4885
      @caryphillips4885 4 дня назад +4

      That's a good thing, considering 401Ks enable Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street to gain voting power over every last stock on the market. If money were to withdraw from the market and re-enter later through non 401K means, it would be a great relief for the voting power of normal people.

    • @jasonb4770
      @jasonb4770 4 дня назад +6

      Destroyed is accurate. As someone who witnessed 1999 and 2006. This is like watching a rerun.

    • @jonnelson9760
      @jonnelson9760 4 дня назад

      @@jasonb4770Actually it’s not accurate. I also lived through 1999 ( 2000 ) and 2006 ( 2008 ). During that time I was working and contributing to my 401k. Those periods were the time in which I was able to make the most money by buying low. That is where the real growth comes from.

    • @jonnelson9760
      @jonnelson9760 4 дня назад

      I have wondered about this but from the standpoint that there is always new money entering the stock market. I wonder if that has changed the old metrics of an over-valued market.

  • @ItsaJourney4007
    @ItsaJourney4007 День назад +162

    My portfolio of 200k is not increasing any more than 5% and we seem to be facing a massive crash now. I cant tell where the market is headed, or perhaps I should just sell off and avoid the panic.

    • @MiddleclassAmerican-7220
      @MiddleclassAmerican-7220 День назад +1

      i'd advise you redistribute assets in your portfolio with the help of a license professional so you don't get burnt in this volatile market

    • @veteran-m4y
      @veteran-m4y День назад +1

      You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.

    • @GREGG-43
      @GREGG-43 День назад +1

      This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now

    • @veteran-m4y
      @veteran-m4y День назад +1

      There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Elise Robinson for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @GREGG-43
      @GREGG-43 День назад

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @johank1061
    @johank1061 День назад +5

    Never believe a top investor that has his own priority to manipulate the investors for his own benefit.

  • @CliveBirse
    @CliveBirse 13 часов назад +7

    For new investors: buy stocks in solid companies and hold them as long as they stay strong. Ignore forecasts and market opinions-they’re distracting at best and useless in the long run.

    • @mikegarvey17
      @mikegarvey17 13 часов назад +5

      The key to strong returns isn’t quick-gaining assets but managing risk in relation to reward. It’s about maintaining the right allocation and consistently using your edge to reach your goal. This holds true for everything from long-term wealth building to short-term market plays.

    • @ThomasChai05
      @ThomasChai05 13 часов назад +4

      That makes sense. I’ve been using a financial market expert for two years now and I own a six-figure diversified portfolio from investing in stocks. I want to diversify more this year, though.

    • @mariaguerrero08
      @mariaguerrero08 13 часов назад +4

      @@ThomasChai05Impressive can you share more info?

    • @ThomasChai05
      @ThomasChai05 13 часов назад +3

      Her name is. ‘IZELLA ANNETTE ANDERSON’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @91ScottieP
      @91ScottieP 13 часов назад +2

      Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.

  • @Beowulfsg
    @Beowulfsg 5 дней назад +20

    Great overall review thanks Hamish!

    • @HamishHodder
      @HamishHodder  5 дней назад

      thank you!!

    • @gabrielmihai7856
      @gabrielmihai7856 5 дней назад

      Excellent!

    • @ClemensGoermer
      @ClemensGoermer 4 дня назад

      I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I'm 59 living in Melbourne Australia, bought my new mansion in August and hoping to do more if things keep going smoothly for me..

    • @MikeRaymond-x6p
      @MikeRaymond-x6p 4 дня назад

      Congratulations dear. You're really doing well for yourself, I'm 51 and my financial life is in a mess. Any great tips would really go a long way in shaping my life. I want to buy my own house, that's really a big flex

    • @TonyPantoja-m3h
      @TonyPantoja-m3h 4 дня назад

      If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation

  • @jackiechan8840
    @jackiechan8840 5 дней назад +6

    Always good information Hamish. Thanks bud

  • @adamjoyce4528
    @adamjoyce4528 5 дней назад +9

    Nice research.. thanks

  • @paykh
    @paykh 5 дней назад +5

    the debt is growing at an alarming pace. Near impossible to lower interest rate given the volume of bond the American gov needs to raise.

  • @itsMohak
    @itsMohak 5 дней назад +6

    Great insights and research

  • @mikestanmore2614
    @mikestanmore2614 4 дня назад +2

    Good video Hamish, thankyou.
    The question is, perhaps, what happens to individual shares during the 'flat' periods? At the moment the growth in the S&P is essentially gathered in a handful of companies. So without them, the market would be a lot flatter.
    Question 2: what happened to dividends over the 'flat' period?

  • @fluffycolt5608
    @fluffycolt5608 4 дня назад +3

    When you show eg the 66% return over 17 years are you reinvesting the dividends or is this simply comparing the share price index?

  • @rickpuigmusic
    @rickpuigmusic 5 дней назад +16

    Would like to see a us debt factored into the analysis. Printing all that currency has to go somewhere.

    • @Logge0815
      @Logge0815 5 дней назад +1

      It´s called hyper inflation and will come before the year 2030.

    • @shadowninja6689
      @shadowninja6689 5 дней назад +5

      Yeah, I really call the idea into question the idea that US treasuries are ultra safe given just how unsustainable the US debt load is, and just how rapidly it's been adding more and more debt. Either it eventually won't be able to pay off that debt when interest exceeds tax revenue, or your money will be worth next to nothing when they turn on the money printer to make the payments. And I'm saying this as a US citizen.

  • @Henry.Nibler
    @Henry.Nibler 5 дней назад +4

    It would be very valuable to see the GDP number minus real estate.
    Real estate transactions have been so disjointed, and massively imoact GDP

    • @rebeltheharem7028
      @rebeltheharem7028 4 минуты назад

      Real estate prices generally follow the market, which generally follows economic conditions, because all these things relate to how much money people have to spend, and thus how much capital people will have to invest and or buy real estate.
      The US isn't a very real estate centric economy until recent years. Its historically (and still remains), a consumerist economy. Real estate only effects less than 20% of the GDP (but its recently been growing thanks to high real estate prices).

  • @rocking1313
    @rocking1313 5 дней назад +3

    Thanks Hamish.
    Passive inflows into 401Ks and ETFs would likely mitigate this valuation issue to a large extent ?

  • @bionicle37
    @bionicle37 5 дней назад +14

    It would be awesome to see some content on Milei and argentina. Anyhow your videos are really interesting keep up the good work

    • @freesk8
      @freesk8 3 дня назад +2

      Milei is awesome. Wish we had someone like him in the US!

  • @77magicbus
    @77magicbus 5 дней назад +2

    Good job explaining Buffett's rationale and methodical thinking. As I talk to people who invest it becomes apparent to me that even when people know that it is a long term game and that they need to hold on through the ups and downs...they can't do it. They don't have the stomach or temperament to sit back and watch the show. And even fewer people have the temerity to buy more as the markets and market news headlines become center stage. People think it is easy to buy when the markets are crashing . It isn't!!!

  • @blackbear92201
    @blackbear92201 5 дней назад +2

    Very informative. Subscribed. thanks for posting! :D

  • @Investright-t8k
    @Investright-t8k 5 дней назад +23

    So what your sayin is we should have lots of cash reserve so if there is a market crash we can capitalize on the low prices?

  • @ttrjw
    @ttrjw 5 дней назад +6

    The Bank of England has been around 1694. With the exception of extreme periods (ZIRP - late 1960s - 1980s) interest rates have been in the range of 3 - 5%. It's very unlikely that they will go below 3%.

    • @jeffbguarino
      @jeffbguarino 5 дней назад +2

      That is what Buffet said and the rates went to zero.

    • @freesk8
      @freesk8 3 дня назад

      Recently it was near zero. I'm old enough to remember the inflation of the '70's. What you learn living as long as I have is that surprising things happen.

  • @JS-jh4cy
    @JS-jh4cy 4 дня назад +1

    What are the two variables, I see inly one mentioned which is interest rates

  • @jamescampbell7894
    @jamescampbell7894 5 дней назад +1

    Great video Hamish!

  • @Blair62
    @Blair62 5 дней назад +8

    "If inflation stays around 2%." The debt is over 35 trillion and is increasing by 1T every quarter. The fed's "balance sheet" is over 9T. Gold is over $2700 an oz.

    • @xXdnerstxleXx
      @xXdnerstxleXx 3 дня назад +2

      Which means it can move 2 ways. That spending make speople poor due to distortions. Unaffordability crisis affecte the real economy and stocks and gold crash like in 2000... or well any other of these scenarios. Or weget hyperinflation. Pick the one you think is more likely, I for one pick the first, as the US is not indebted in foreign currency.

  • @smashschool6747
    @smashschool6747 4 дня назад +3

    You just warned the stock market could go down over the long term then said people should buy the index for the long term.

  • @rakeau
    @rakeau 5 дней назад +13

    So if I’m interpreting this right .. There’s basically nowhere for growth to come from. No fuel for the fire. Maybe can cut rates again, but that’s about it.

    • @jpcarsmedia
      @jpcarsmedia 5 дней назад +3

      Growth is from AI and layoffs

    • @curtfromcanada6988
      @curtfromcanada6988 5 дней назад +1

      Jpc is correct without AI consumers are broke and done for.

    • @MrTea7
      @MrTea7 5 дней назад +3

      @@jpcarsmedia Beat me to it. The Question is how fast and to what degree do they implement it. 10 years ago the authors of "People Get Ready" were on C-Span said the German Minister of Industry told them "we could replace 100K high-wage workers (BASF, Siemens, Benz, etc) but we're not going to do it because we don't know what to do with the people". Mercenaries in US now not likely to have such sentiments. Most likely post-election jobs depression followed by some government intervention. Bringing back the WPA would not be bad if it could be managed, trouble is the Democrats turn everything into the Chicago public schools.

  • @DanielPflager
    @DanielPflager 5 дней назад +6

    Do you have a link to that article?

    • @HamishHodder
      @HamishHodder  5 дней назад +1

      It's now in the description :)

    • @oldrrocr
      @oldrrocr 7 часов назад

      dude, Warren hasn't said anything since 1998?
      We've had a few crashes since then...

  • @ClemonSteve
    @ClemonSteve День назад

    How do you feel about Covered call ETFs? I don't have the experience to sell SCHD myself. But I hope the ETF management does. I just really want to know more about these things before investing, only if someone can put me through.

  • @xokelis0015
    @xokelis0015 5 дней назад

    Does anyone know which bank houses his cash? Or if his cash is in TBills, or some foreign bonds? Does anyone know. how to find this information? Thanks.

  • @rob2530
    @rob2530 5 дней назад +1

    Excellent video, thank you 😊

  • @BenKaiser-v2v
    @BenKaiser-v2v День назад +52

    Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early, I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but l'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling! Thanks Wendy Stewart

    • @ScottHubbard232
      @ScottHubbard232 День назад

      I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Wendy Stewart, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.

    • @Victorianguyennguyen
      @Victorianguyennguyen День назад

      The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

    • @franchescaconcepcion1845
      @franchescaconcepcion1845 День назад

      You trade with Wendy Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family

    • @BrandonMiller454-h2h
      @BrandonMiller454-h2h День назад

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @BenKaiser-v2v
      @BenKaiser-v2v День назад

      she's mostly on Instagrams, using the user name

  • @Ochi2000
    @Ochi2000 День назад

    What about His Market Indicator. The ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP is @ 200.2% right now. Indicating that the shoe could drop any time soon ( not that it's going to, that it could ).

  • @LinardsBerzins
    @LinardsBerzins 5 дней назад +1

    love these videos, keep em coming

    • @HamishHodder
      @HamishHodder  5 дней назад +1

      Thank you for being a long-time subscriber of the channel!

  • @graham9334
    @graham9334 8 часов назад

    I would argue this inflation is different in that the fed *has* to keep rates low to pay off the debt interest and will instead tolerate high inflation. We cannot repeat 18 percent interest without a complete collapse.

  • @nedyalkokarabadzhakov5405
    @nedyalkokarabadzhakov5405 4 дня назад

    I am coder but very vey interested in financial world and investing, i need to learn more and more. Your videos help me a lot.

  • @jonathansmith5305
    @jonathansmith5305 5 дней назад +28

    He sold banks because they are short silver and will collapse soon

    • @nonexistent5030
      @nonexistent5030 5 дней назад

      Lol "billions" in losses of the 5 largest banks will lead to their total collapse.

    • @nonexistent5030
      @nonexistent5030 5 дней назад +3

      That's such a tiny fraction of their equity.

  • @hch5807
    @hch5807 2 дня назад +1

    So it's his past prediction, not his current prediction? If correct, what is value add of this podcast?

  • @pierrec1590
    @pierrec1590 5 дней назад +2

    Markets are fundamentally a reflection of the activity of people active in that market. If you look at the population curve of that market, you will get a predictor of the activity of that market. All our economic models are viable only in growth mode. The population is aging and the economy will go down.

  • @raychen3295
    @raychen3295 5 дней назад +1

    thank you for doing such thorough research ,love it

  • @HamishHodder
    @HamishHodder  5 дней назад +36

    My AI Buffett used in the intro needs some work... 😆

    • @theartofarbitrage
      @theartofarbitrage 5 дней назад +16

      The voice is scarily good - which AI tool do you use for this?

    • @marcopolo3936
      @marcopolo3936 5 дней назад +14

      I thought buffet actually said this 😂😂😂

    • @rbiscuit7458
      @rbiscuit7458 5 дней назад +7

      Had me fooled

  • @maximayr9297
    @maximayr9297 5 дней назад +2

    If this holds up, stockpicking will become more important in the next years.

  • @SB-yq6ze
    @SB-yq6ze 4 дня назад +1

    I feel it's not that appropriate to link returns to US GDP any more, companies are so much more global than they used to be. If the US stagnates and Asia pacific booms, global companies can still grow above US GDP

  • @kowalski7161
    @kowalski7161 5 дней назад +7

    The stock market does not reflect the value of businesses anymore, it is now mostly to do with the value of the dollar.

    • @MikeVeracity
      @MikeVeracity 2 дня назад

      No, There is something else that is a big secret here. Clue: Modern Munger and Warren think it is rat poison. Really!

    • @gcraig0001
      @gcraig0001 2 дня назад

      It's actually more about manipulation by the big players to benefit themselves. Stock prices suffer a distinct drop for no really valid reason, soon followed by a buying spree by the same investors that started the selloff. It's a rigged game and the little guys get the shaft. Kind of like a casino.

  • @LukeyPoo65
    @LukeyPoo65 5 дней назад +4

    I love you Hamboy!

  • @lightlock2177
    @lightlock2177 2 дня назад

    not accounting for explosion of index investing. hard to argue for historically benchmarked inflated p/e ratios being an indicator of future depressed returns when $50 billion flows into the s&p a week

  • @DavidNorden
    @DavidNorden 3 дня назад +5

    This is an article from 1999, how could you expect this to apply to today's world that changed a lot !

  • @SportsIncorporated
    @SportsIncorporated 5 дней назад

    The short term treasuries went to 21% and the 30 year went to 15%. General obligation bonds went to I think 14% or more. But you had to watch out for the call dates. How long were you going to get a high rate of return.

  • @Joe-sg9ll
    @Joe-sg9ll 5 дней назад

    what should you have invested in from 65 to 85?

  • @AndreaBocelli-lc2ft
    @AndreaBocelli-lc2ft 14 часов назад +1

    Now I have recovered 90% of my lost money may Allah keep blessing her for me ❤

  • @DanielPflager
    @DanielPflager 5 дней назад

    Thank-you Hamish.

  • @KanesTrades
    @KanesTrades 4 дня назад +5

    pfft, so after all that, Buffet says that the market as a whole has very little impact on his investment decisions because he picks individual companies. I might invest a small amount into indexes, but I'll focus on picking individual stocks which makes all of this concern about the overall market almost irrelevant.

  • @JS-jh4cy
    @JS-jh4cy 4 дня назад

    What article was this in which magazine? Fortune 500 or _____ magazine

  • @Ausuomi
    @Ausuomi 4 дня назад

    Great video. The best you’ve posted in a while, Hamish. Well done.

  • @pelhamh
    @pelhamh 4 дня назад

    Brilliant Hamish - great piece

  • @perspective4517
    @perspective4517 3 дня назад

    Enjoyed your explanation Hamish. Your analysis fits well with predictions about the likely impact on the overall market if a particular candidate wins the US election. Tariffs on imports will fuel inflation. Inflation will increase bond yields and interest rates overall. That will pull money towards safe/guaranteed returns at a higher yield and drag down the S&P500, if my extrapolation of your historical examples is correct. I understand that this is inductive logic which is subject to failure, but I'd be interested in your take on the likely impact on the market of both outcomes, a T or H win.

  • @stevenvan5104
    @stevenvan5104 4 дня назад +8

    Buying Stocks or Gold are the absolute best hedges against hyperinflation.

    • @borisdodgingbullets
      @borisdodgingbullets 2 дня назад +1

      Absolutely. Historical patterns show that both beat bonds and cash during the 70s.

    • @BuGlobalToday
      @BuGlobalToday 2 дня назад +2

      Not true

    • @borisdodgingbullets
      @borisdodgingbullets 2 дня назад

      @@BuGlobalToday During the last period of sustained inflation (1970s), gold was up 2,300%. Commodities were up 586%. REITs were up 100%. The S&P 500 was flat. But, defensive sectors held their pricing power. Bonds performed very badly!

    • @MikeVeracity
      @MikeVeracity 2 дня назад +1

      No, There is something else that is a big secret here. Clue: Modern Munger and Warren think it is rat poison. Really!

  • @dougm5702
    @dougm5702 5 дней назад +10

    A lot of similarities covered in this video. Debt to GDP wasn’t 130% during that time frame.

  • @richardgordon
    @richardgordon 5 дней назад

    Great video! You deserve much,much more than 200K subscribers.

  • @davidlavalle
    @davidlavalle 5 дней назад

    That was a fantastic video. I always enjoy looking for your new videos, but this one was the best!

  • @JohnPamplin
    @JohnPamplin 5 дней назад +11

    That's why I'm keeping my powder dry for the moment. I can't see buying into the market at all-time highs - I'll wait for the next disaster and buy the dip - it's the only way I can see to get decent returns over time for the next decade.

    • @HamishHodder
      @HamishHodder  5 дней назад +4

      The next few years will certainly be interesting, thanks for watching!

    • @Historicallybuilt
      @Historicallybuilt 5 дней назад +4

      1000% Believe the same thing.. This is the biggest bubble in the history of this over 100 to 110 year old Fiat currency.

    • @carlyndolphin
      @carlyndolphin 5 дней назад +14

      The last 2 years you have lost out on 60% gains! Good luck on timing the market though.

    • @JohnPamplin
      @JohnPamplin 5 дней назад +5

      @@carlyndolphin I am already in stocks in my 401k, and have been. I'm talking about where to put a newly-acquired war chest of cash. Given the options, stocks is NOT the best choice in 2024.

    • @B.U.M-q2e
      @B.U.M-q2e 5 дней назад +5

      ​@@JohnPamplin invest in your own business. That's the biggest return you can get in the next 17 years

  • @nedyalkokarabadzhakov5405
    @nedyalkokarabadzhakov5405 4 дня назад

    Your analisis are amazing.

  • @MRADefeat
    @MRADefeat 5 дней назад

    S/P 500 index or ETF. Time in market not timing the market.

  • @tarabostes90210
    @tarabostes90210 5 дней назад

    According to the Buffet indicator, S&P is over valued by 63-65% now, so expect that pull back and then you can say that you bought at real valuation.

  • @KaranButtarr
    @KaranButtarr 2 дня назад

    Great video

  • @c47force15
    @c47force15 20 часов назад

    Time to buy then.

  • @rokurussell9862
    @rokurussell9862 5 дней назад +3

    I take money out of stocks every month that there's a new high.

  • @thomasbennett7329
    @thomasbennett7329 3 дня назад

    Keynesian economics works well only in expansions because it does everything we like to see- create new money, stimulate demand for goods and services, bolster the jobs market, generate rising tax bases, foster creativity, etc. In reverse it ushers in the opposite of all those wonderful things, delivering reality to us in the forms of”credit crunches” in multiple manifestations: recessions, depressions, inflation, stagflation, bankruptcy, debt restructure- you name it. Any way you cut it major “adjustments” lie directly ahead.

  • @hliang4
    @hliang4 5 дней назад +1

    Buffett really is the goat, I wonder if he’ll be going into commodities now

  • @johnhuston650
    @johnhuston650 4 дня назад +4

    Nobody invested in stocks in the 60’s and 70’s. People started investing in the mid 80’s. Even more people are investing now than ever as companies no longer use a pension.

  • @mdevorah6833
    @mdevorah6833 4 дня назад

    In late 1970 early 1980 a CD was close to 21% interest.

    • @chesshooligan1282
      @chesshooligan1282 3 дня назад +1

      It was only vinyl and cassette tapes in the late 70s.

  • @алексд-к7г
    @алексд-к7г 5 дней назад +1

    But you can trade stocks using leverage. I mean 3,5 percent is nice when you have millions.

  • @goobda_
    @goobda_ 5 дней назад +2

    Right now for me the best short-term investment is bank deposits with the interest rates of around 7-8% here in Poland. I can dump there very large sums of money, risk-free, instead of buying overvalued assets on the stock market with very high risk, where surely I wouldn't deploy that much capital as well.

    • @HamishHodder
      @HamishHodder  5 дней назад

      7-8% is pretty damn good! thanks for watching :))

    • @goobda_
      @goobda_ 5 дней назад

      @@HamishHodder Isnt it! Cheers, thank you for great conent

    • @alexandermills382
      @alexandermills382 5 дней назад

      7-8% sounds far too good to be true! Be careful…. Remember a bank can freeze your deposits overnight and then collapse. I prefer precious metals in my hand! Buy silver and gold coins on dips. I agree stocks are too risky at the moment. Poland is the safest country in the EU I have read, congratulations on your strong government. We need something similar in the UK.

    • @goobda_
      @goobda_ 5 дней назад

      @@alexandermills382 Thank you for the nice words about my contry. I hope UK bounces back soon. Regarding the bank deposit - right now the average is around 5,5%, a year ago it was around 7-8%, but yesterday I made a deposit with a substantial amount with 7,5% interest rate. There are still some big banks who offer such rates from time to time, and if the timing is right, you can really benefit from it. I think the collapse of such banks is extremely unlikely. There is no 100% safe way to invest, but in the past 2-3 years this has been the best way to invest money for me, given exorbitant prices in the market.

    • @tictoc5443
      @tictoc5443 5 дней назад

      Banks deposit insurance?

  • @TheJoker-qn6vw
    @TheJoker-qn6vw 5 дней назад +2

    Where can someone get this article to read?

  • @bartdart3315
    @bartdart3315 2 дня назад

    Ask friends and family this question regardless of where you are: Are you struggling financially? The predominant answer i found is YES. Our financial system depends on consumers consuming to sustain growth. I do not see it happening, and i see 2025 as what i describe as a "make or break year" regardless of Buffets cash position or historical advice. Case in point: Tesla stock jumped by over 45 USD in a day last week...this is exuberance above and beyond the norm. I for one believe that the stock market is overvalued and there is too much cash around trying to justify value.

  • @bootstrapstylerich
    @bootstrapstylerich 4 дня назад

    You might have to become a value investor and focus on dividend paying options: like VOO @ 45% and FDVV @ 55%.

  • @ryanl2324
    @ryanl2324 4 дня назад

    10:40 A 6.3% increase in the S&P 500 over 17 years relative to inflation is still waaaay better that you would do if you held plain cash

  • @ISAmillionaire7789
    @ISAmillionaire7789 5 дней назад +1

    Flat for two 25/26 …mini bull peaking at 2030… stay invested and go and get a hobby till 2030 do not be tempted until 27

  • @JoshuaRose-f4y
    @JoshuaRose-f4y 5 дней назад

    I think a lot more people bought bonds instead of stocks during the 70s

  • @jonnelson9760
    @jonnelson9760 4 дня назад +1

    I bought a stock because Warren Buffet bought it. It now is a big red.

  • @rufuspipemos
    @rufuspipemos 2 дня назад

    At some point PEs will go sub 15x. That bodes very badly for stock the next decade.

  • @justgeneric2876
    @justgeneric2876 4 дня назад +1

    You will note modern pension plans came in over that period which has fueled the market.

  • @Scarprotte
    @Scarprotte 5 дней назад

    Thanks for an interesting video 🙂

  • @MikeVeracity
    @MikeVeracity 2 дня назад

    The bonds are not risk free, they are risk (of purchasing power) guaranteed. Hello .....

  • @haze1123
    @haze1123 5 дней назад

    With all of that cash holding... It seems to me that Berkshire is a good hedge purchase.
    If there's a big drop, do you think you can allocate cash better than Berkshire?

    • @Joe-sg9ll
      @Joe-sg9ll 5 дней назад

      a single share is the cost of a house. and iirc invite only

    • @haze1123
      @haze1123 5 дней назад

      @@Joe-sg9ll There is Berkshire Class A... and Class B.
      Class B is currently $457.

    • @HouseofTheRisingFunk
      @HouseofTheRisingFunk 5 дней назад

      Berkshire will hold up longer than than the SPX but will eventually collapse just like everything else just not as much.

    • @haze1123
      @haze1123 5 дней назад

      @@HouseofTheRisingFunk Yes... But unlike the SPX, Berkshire is preparing for that collapse with a cash pile.
      I think Berkshire will be able to put that cash to work better than I could.

    • @HouseofTheRisingFunk
      @HouseofTheRisingFunk 5 дней назад

      @@haze1123 I agree. I own shares of Berkshire. I have studied their history extensively which has led me to such conclusion.

  • @xman7695
    @xman7695 День назад +1

    Ive seldom seen this many scam comments just sitting in the comment section. --_-- It really goes downhill with scam comments and bots.

  • @annaj.osorio
    @annaj.osorio 4 часа назад

    Thank you so much for this video but in these uncertain times, it is more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

    • @LejlaGöransson
      @LejlaGöransson 4 часа назад

      Invest in S&P 500 ETF, for as long as possible. Do it as often as you can. Try not to withdraw this money and let compounding do its work. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.

    • @KristensenJørgensen
      @KristensenJørgensen 4 часа назад

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

    • @Robbertskypes
      @Robbertskypes 4 часа назад

      This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation

    • @KristensenJørgensen
      @KristensenJørgensen 4 часа назад

      Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.

  • @Ferdinand208
    @Ferdinand208 5 дней назад +1

    Run! Panic! Buy Gold!
    Let me make a prediction: Berkshire will have more money in cash in 2025. And 2026. And 2027. And 2028. But not 2029!

  • @mmmom6469
    @mmmom6469 4 дня назад +3

    Will not crash will have a big rise in coming months

  • @kalvaxus
    @kalvaxus 5 дней назад +4

    It's only alarming for people who want to retire in 10 years, for everybody else who's accumulating it's perfect for stocks to be flat.

    • @MattMcQueen1
      @MattMcQueen1 2 дня назад

      Unfortunately, I'm retiring in 6 years.

  • @douglasmcgraw96
    @douglasmcgraw96 День назад

    The problem with the argument presented in this video is in comparing 1965 to 1981 to the current time doesn't factor in the fact that there are billions upon billions of dollars pouring in from 401(k)s and pension plans that were not there during that original time period. When this money comes in to money managers, they are required to invest that money in the market. So there's a built-in tendency for the market to go up that didn't automatically exist, originally.
    In addition, the current returns don't seem to reflect previous investment schemes in anyway. No one has a crystal ball. And the way this video attempts to analyze the market is as faulty as any other way. This is the best something to keep in the back of your mind as you plot your way forward.
    The stock market is overvalued. A serious correction is overdue. So what you should get from this video is the comment about Warren Buffett having a lot of cash on hand. An argument could be made to wait to invest after that correction occurs. The problem of course is timing. Nobody knows when that's coming and nobody knows how much money they're gonna lose by selling too soon.
    But definitely don't watch a video and think that that should determine your investment plan or get either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic based on it.

  • @xst-k6
    @xst-k6 4 дня назад

    It's common sense that all that printed money will eventually find its way into the market... why do most people over analyze this fact?

  • @brucemackinnon-k3x
    @brucemackinnon-k3x 3 дня назад

    If the dollar crashes from BRICs currency, the value of that cash will shrink fast.

  • @joaor.8780
    @joaor.8780 5 дней назад +1

    Buffet plays the game the other way around doing what 99% doesnt do. Thats why he is successfull. But people cant do what he does...

  • @davegubbins4428
    @davegubbins4428 4 дня назад

    sell stocks , work for a living, be economically productive. your economy/country needs you.

  • @gordongekko2781
    @gordongekko2781 5 дней назад

    Warren Buffet's own market-wide valuation equation (aptly named the 'Buffet Indicator') is currently at the HIGHEST LEVEL EVER (going back 50+ years). And, it is projecting an estimated return of 0.0% over the next seven years. Actual results will likely vary of course, but 0.0% total gains (including dividends) is the baseline projection.

  • @Abdul_Rahman86
    @Abdul_Rahman86 4 дня назад

    Is the market over valued?? DEFINITELY!
    But I don’t look at my investing journey as buying something that’s overvalued. I look at it as a way to allocate a percentage of my wealth into highly innovative and valuable businesses that will do well in the long run.
    Because I invest in an index fund, the best companies get access to most of my wealth.

  • @25Soupy
    @25Soupy 5 дней назад +2

    The market is up 30% from just 1 year ago. What would this video say if it was made just 1 year ago?

    • @JunkSock
      @JunkSock 3 дня назад

      Exactly - 1 year of -22% or +33% changes the long term return quite a bit

    • @jarrod499
      @jarrod499 3 дня назад +1

      That’s the problem with successful timing. This exact argument could have been made a year ago and if had been acted on one would have missed out on a great year of returns.