I was defending Ann Selzer for days because I respected Mark’s judgment. And I still don’t believe that she was intentionally dishonest. But when I read more analysis it became clear that Selzer should not have published that poll - and I also remembered her obvious satisfaction, in her first interview with Mark, at the prospect that her rogue poll might herald Harris victories in the blue wall states. Mark, you let her off the hook in this interview.
@PotbellyPunch I respect not wanting to throw a friend under the bus; but the thing to do there is admit you're biased and just not cover the story. Alternatively, bring someone else in to ask the questions. A fawning "interview" like this just demeans everyone and diminishes the platform. Lost a lot of respect for Mark here.
Congressman Ritchie Torres says the party has swung too far to the left but his votes in Congress show his actions don't match his words. He voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2023 and against Secure the Border Act 2023 showing he is quite willing to advance far left ideologies like men in women's sports and open borders.
@@kittybreath could be a number of reasons for that, including negotiation, promise of spot of influence, wanting a clause changed, or not wanting to step outside an orthodox position. I hope he gets bold on his challenges to Dem norms.
@@bgorg1 Yes, all possible. But not one of those things matters. Your voting record is your voting record. Your actions are your actions. What your rationalizations and motivations are for your actions, matter ZERO to those who are affected by your actions.
Mark isn’t practicing real journalism. He assumes his “friend” won’t sway a poll in one’s favor, but doesn’t even push her to see if it’s true. Journalism is tough, and they’re supposed to ask tough questions. This is a handout so Ann can attempt to clear her name.
Selzer truly should ve investigated for an in kind campaign contribution. She released the poll and jumped on MSNBC and had a bunch of other media appearances scheduled. She knew what she was doing. She was extremely arrogant at even the possibility that she had a biased sample and didn’t even want to reveal her crosstabs
She buried her crosstabs b/c anyone who understands the methodologies would have called her on it. Her rationalizations on failing to weight LVs by party affiliation was somewhere between amateur-hour pathetic, and downright insulting.
Her methodology in the past has been good.We are going down a dangerous path if we are going to start investigating people for being wrong about a poll….
@@biscaynediver I’ve been following Baris since 2016. I have plenty of experience thanks lol. And maybe re read what I said and then realize you and I said the same thing and your comment is pointless
Re. Ann Selzer: Mark gently questioned Ann as you would someone who was new at the job. Ann's defense was that of a newbie saying she did her best. She was also asked by a member of the gallery if maybe she should have backed off once she saw the results were outside the average, but she threw the Des Moines Register under the bus by pushing back that they didn't question her. She came across as a child produced from the marriage of the Wizard of Oz and Bernie Madoff.
@@caseyking0917 I'm thinking perhaps Ann stood by Mark when others turned their back on him after his Me Too outing, so he is reciprocating. Just a guess.
Her top reason for why the poll was off is that "voters in my sample didn't vote, they lost interest in the final days" ?? and then she lists "I'm getting voicemails suggesting the election was stolen and my poll was right" 😂 This is not as bad as Alan Lichtman but its close
This is worse than lichtman. At least lichtman accepts that he was wrong and his keys didn’t work. Selzer is still trying to pretend the garbage she put out has some legitimacy
@@croczOTK Lichtman hasn't really accepted his keys were wrong. He says he does and then goes on to blame misinformation and an uninformed electorate. So he's basically saying his keys are still correct if the voters weren't fooled.
Mark, if you want to be respected as a journalist, act like one. You turned this episode into a shameless promotion of Ann Selzer. It was a giant bias-driven editorial. Your job is not to promote your guests, defend their work or opinions, but to ask them probing questions, challenge them, elicit insightful commentary from them, then offer them opportunity to respond in long form. If you were serious about being a journalist, you'd have invited Mark Rasmussen on with Ann and asked them both probing questions and let them speak for themselves, rather than injecting your own very strong opinions. Don't you see the people who come to 2Way are trying to get away from the media pronouncing what the "truth" is from on high and acting as though they know more than their audience? That kind of arrogance and condescension only erodes your credibility. You act as thought there is no reasonable basis for any criticism of Ann's poll. That simply isn't the case, and if you don't know that, then you aren't as knowledgable about the science of polling as you think you are. Yes, Ann is a friend, and yes, we respect that you are defensive of her on her behalf when her motives are impugned. But you'd do well to have a little faith in your audience and let them make up their own minds as to motivations and intentions. If you polled your audience, I think you'd find most care about actions, outcomes and results, not the motivations.
What was wrong with the poll, methodologically? Mark talks about public polls being done on shoestring budgets compared to vastly better funded internal polls, so they often don’t get sufficiently large or representative samples and thus you *shouldn’t put an enormous amount of confidence in a given public poll*. What mistake did she make that other public pollsters don’t make?
Push polling is real. It is conducted by partisans. To be effective you have to obscure your partisanship and build credibility until the opportune moment for the big push.
Mark ... I like your show but your decision to promote Selzer does not help you ... and those of us taking a chance on you, may need to reconsider that decision. Be an honest broker and bring other pollsters on to counter Anne.
All politicians know this. And yet left leaning politicians obscure the facts to pander to the women of their party. As has been said of the recent election, it's no longer about being pro-choice, but being pro-abortion. Sad.
Ann doesnt discuss that Emerson released an Iowa poll the same time that showed completely different results. I dont believe she released the cross tabs so others could analyze her data set when the poll was released. She seems to smart and experienced to be releasing a poll so far off a few days before an election.
I just don’t get why she would release a poll that was in her own words “stunning”, and also such an outlier from every other poll. In any profession, if you do a bad job, you pay a price for it, why should a pollster be any different? Her intention doesn’t matter, she received the natural blowback for doing a poor job. Mark needs to stop making excuses for her professional underperformance. One “good” poll from her in 2008 shouldn’t be the basis for assessing her competency for the rest of her career. Her methodology is obviously not intellectually sound. She suggested at the time that OLD WOMEN were behind the anomaly in her ludicrous poll. Well, SHE falls within that category and it’s about time she retires.
So if a pollster gets a surprising result and they can’t see anything they did wrong methodologically, they should just throw it out? That doesn’t seem like a very good way to conduct research lol
Mark, I felt the good ol’ boy (girl) club kick into gear when a week or so ago you jumped all over Sean Spicer for simply showing doubt about Selzer’s objectivity. It seems you want to protect the club more than get to the truth here.
One of the biggest issues with Ann's poll is the fact that she didn't have a clue how out of touch her poll was with her electorate, when anyone with a brain knew that poll wasn't even remotely possible given the 2020 outcome. It just doesn't pass the smell test that people around her didn't tell her how off she was.
Mark i don't care if she was your "friend". This was a very inappropriate way to cover for her. THAT POLL was a travesty and sneaks to high heaven. Period.
If you get a poll that makes absolutely no sense why release it. At least do a second poll and see if the numbers match up. Ann cooked her reputation and career because she couldn't believe her polling system could be wrong. Happy retirement.
It was a strange anomaly and I’m guessing because she had that accurate Obama poll in ‘08 which was exact that this would repeat. Albeit I can be as human and tribal like others, I don’t think she was - in the words of Mark - trying to “cook the books”.
I just think she was not being objective, she desperately wanted Kamala to win and it led her to do what she did with this poll. I don’t believe that she did it purposefully to affect the outcome of the election.
I’m not sure who shot through their own reputations worse, Ann Selzer with an 11hr outlier Iowa poll (throwing advantage to Harris) or Prof Allan Lichtman and his 13-keys to the Presidency (again Advantage Harris). When it was clear to anyone paying attention, Iowa was DJT country all along and if you actually ran Lichtman’s 13-keys, again Trump clearly held more keys.
Yeah that’s a great way to do research/science - if you get a weird result and can’t find any flaw in the methodology, just keep redoing the poll until the results better match your priors lol
Know enough about how this works to skip this evening's show. I would like Mark to bring on Bannon for some perspective. Being fair and balanced and all. Peace, love, and understanding.
@@markayouso that’s what I’ve thought about too. Clearly the Harris campaign internal polling was bad, and they used this Iowa poll as a last ditch effort to get out the vote nationwide. Ironically it probably worked as far as the popular vote a little, but not nearly enough.
The My First Million podcast recently discussed the person who won millions betting on a Trump win on Polymarket. It turns out that guy lives in France. He paid a pollster to take polls in the US, but instead of asking who the person was planning to vote for, they asked who they thought their neighbor was going to vote for. The results indicated a huge Trump landslide. So he placed his bet on polymarket for a Trump win even though the odds were terrible and it payed off in a big way.
She should’ve compared her BS poll to polls in other states with similar demographics. This exercise would’ve shown that her BS poll was clearly an anomaly. Unfortunately she let her hate for Trump and her bias toward Harris get in the way. Too bad you tanked your reputation on the way out, Ann. 😃
Omg, neither sounds like a Republican. They sound like the democrats. Majority of Trumps positions on policies were former Democratic positions. Trump won over democrats because it’s what democrats always ran on. I’m a democrat & voted for Trump because he sounds more like a democrat than the Democratic Party
Wkipedia states that the final Iowa Poll before the election was a D+3 poll. As someone who was born in Iowa and has dozens of family members living there, I can tell you that Iowa is not a D+3 state. It might have been during the Obama years, but no longer. I apologize if I'm misreading the data. I was unable to find the crosstabs on the Register's website. What I don't understand is how the Register's editors could in good conscience run with poll the week before the election when they knew it skewed Democrat unless they were trying to influence the outcome nationally.
Polls are judged by success or failure. Yours failed miserably. You can make excuses now until you're blue in the face. Retirement is the correct choice.
Actual result was Trump +13 For Ann’s poll to be right literally every single other poll both nationally and in swing states this entire cycle needed to be wrong. Think about that
This man needs to be the leader of the Democratic Party, not Gavin Newsom, Alvin Bragg. Come on, democrats, get some good people into leadership positions.
Mark we get that Ann is a long time friend but there is nothing redeemable about her performance before the election. Her methodology was shamelessly biased “and she knew that”. She knew the poll was a misfire but decided to publish it anyway. She then went on a media tour defending the poll “which she knew was garbage”. I might add on mostly liberal MSM platforms. We’ve seen pollsters miss by 7-10 and sometimes it happens. The sample could be skewed by bias and the methodology of the poll may be flawed. Ann missed by nearly 17 points! 17! Not 5! Not 8! Not 10! Not 12! Not 14! Not 16! 17 points! Not to be arrogant but I could walk into five restaurants in Iowa and conduct a better poll than she did. The poll was putrid, shameless, and an obvious psychop designed to discourage Trump voters “which is what it was because the MSM ran with the narrative for days leading up to the election”. To use a football analogy….. Ann’s team just got crushed in a 50pt blowout loss. She’s trying to say that it wasn’t that bad and that there is room for improvement. Unfortunately in that situation the coach, gm, and front office are getting fired. That poll wasn’t a “ah we’ll get em next time”…….. That was a PERMANENT CAREER ENDER. We appreciate you wanting to keep things civil and interesting but this woman should have ZERO voice in American Politics after what just happened.
Robbe Torres should run as a Republican Candidate for NY Governor - Republicans would show up for him across the state and so would most independents, plus a good chunk of NYC Dems.
The post modern utopian left is destroy everything. They touch until they can shake that they're done most people on both sides of the aisle have a visceral reaction to their lack of objective truth.
2020 Primary wasn't open - it was open AT THE BEGINNING but then Bernie started winning the early primaries and the rest was split across such a large candidate pool the primaries were on a path to take up to the convention to secure enough delegates AND were likely to win the field like Trump in 2016. The DEMS expressed concern that if they had to keep pouring money through an extended primary it would really hurt the general election fundraising window. They were also concerned about Bernie being the likely winner bc there were so many moderates diluting the moderate vote. So, they forced a COLLAPSE of the field before Super Tuesday rather than letting it flow out a natural process. What made it even worse is that Biden was in 5th place going into SC and bartering a Black Woman SCOTUS nominee/Black female VP selection for Clyburn's to save his nomination in SC. And they DID IT KNOWING Biden was already showing Cognitive Decline. The DNC/DEM elites/MEDIA colluded to suppress reporting on Biden's Cognitive Decline out of pure malice toward Trump and for their own personal POWER. COLLUSION+COUP=TREASON
This is all that needed to happen with Ann. Just like the blue team, when you aren't responding to a mistake or a problem people will choose their own adventure and you get drowned with hate and trolls. Just show people that you are A: Aware of the problem and B: Willing to take that problem serious. Good on her and on Mark for taking the time to hold folks hands through the process of how she came to what she did.
I’m not mad at her for getting the poll wrong, polls are a snapshot of a minute in time and is dependent on the underlying data, although I do think her personal bias was considered. I actually find it kind of funny that the dem media and trump haters got all invested in it as if it were the gospel truth and didn’t look at the underlying data and consider her bias.
If my job was to gather data and apply it to get a likely result of something… and it was public… I need to be on with criticism when I’m wrong. I wouldn’t need or want my friend to try and rescue me. You live by your data if it is your job to gather, extrapolate, and provide insight on preferences of voters or potential voters. So… it’s like being a public figure. It’s your job.. it’s public… you’re not always going to get positive feedback. I like Ann. Very nice. I wish her the best.
As soon as I saw the Trump 40 Biden 41 2020 recall stats on the slideshow, I knew that was the problem. And sure enough, Ann explained that had she controlled her numbers based on 2020 recall, it would have been Trump + 6 instead of Harris + 3. Still a miss, but not egregious, and at least she would have had the right candidate picked, and nobody would have thought differently about the poll. Rasmussen consistently posted videos talking about the importance of weighting for the 2020 recall vote, and they absolutely nailed this election. So the issue isn't about people's ability to remember who they voted for-the issue is that weighing for recall works!
This Congressman is profoundly insightful and articulate. I don’t know his positions but so far what I’ve seen here, he would have been a wonderful candidate. The Democratic Party missed out on an impressive candidate.
I gave respect for Ann. But these explanations don’t relate to the poll they put out. They seem to go against it. It’s probably me, but I don’t get it. I’m lost.
Dems are always opposing State amendments like 1. Parental notification for minors 2. Health standards for clinics 3. Reporting minor pregnancies for statutory rape 4. Informed consent including sonograms 5. Clinic responsibity for complications, injuries, death
Mark your defense of Selzer triggered my gag reflex. It’s obvious what she was doing in her last poll. 13 points… 16 points between Selzer poll and outcome is to corrupt to ignore
Around 17:00 minutes the guys question is a battle the right has won. It’s winnable. You have to care more about the consequences of staying silent than you are of the consequences of speaking. You have to be courageous & speak unpopular truths. You have to be louder than the loudest group. You have to be unapologetic because they will use your empathy against you. It takes time & people get slandered, loose their job, etc. on the way but eventually your message breaks through the noise once enough people are courageous. It becomes contagious. Also unapologetic doesn’t mean be like DeSantis and never back down. Some of his supporters took that way too literally. You should apologize when necessary.
I was defending Ann Selzer for days because I respected Mark’s judgment. And I still don’t believe that she was intentionally dishonest. But when I read more analysis it became clear that Selzer should not have published that poll - and I also remembered her obvious satisfaction, in her first interview with Mark, at the prospect that her rogue poll might herald Harris victories in the blue wall states. Mark, you let her off the hook in this interview.
Mark’s handling of Selzer and her poll is shocking and disappointing
I know mark wants to be kind to ann and i appreciate that but There's too many questions about her actions in this last election to just overlook.
@PotbellyPunch I respect not wanting to throw a friend under the bus; but the thing to do there is admit you're biased and just not cover the story. Alternatively, bring someone else in to ask the questions. A fawning "interview" like this just demeans everyone and diminishes the platform.
Lost a lot of respect for Mark here.
Congressman Ritchie Torres says the party has swung too far to the left but his votes in Congress show his actions don't match his words. He voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2023 and against Secure the Border Act 2023 showing he is quite willing to advance far left ideologies like men in women's sports and open borders.
@@kittybreath could be a number of reasons for that, including negotiation, promise of spot of influence, wanting a clause changed, or not wanting to step outside an orthodox position. I hope he gets bold on his challenges to Dem norms.
@@bgorg1hahaha sure
@@bgorg1 Yes, all possible. But not one of those things matters. Your voting record is your voting record. Your actions are your actions. What your rationalizations and motivations are for your actions, matter ZERO to those who are affected by your actions.
I feel like that’s because the Democrat party always has had to show that they are United. Idk why. I like that republicans fight it out.
@@biscaynediver correct if you’re explaining you’re losing.
Mark isn’t practicing real journalism. He assumes his “friend” won’t sway a poll in one’s favor, but doesn’t even push her to see if it’s true. Journalism is tough, and they’re supposed to ask tough questions. This is a handout so Ann can attempt to clear her name.
Selzer truly should ve investigated for an in kind campaign contribution. She released the poll and jumped on MSNBC and had a bunch of other media appearances scheduled. She knew what she was doing. She was extremely arrogant at even the possibility that she had a biased sample and didn’t even want to reveal her crosstabs
She buried her crosstabs b/c anyone who understands the methodologies would have called her on it. Her rationalizations on failing to weight LVs by party affiliation was somewhere between amateur-hour pathetic, and downright insulting.
@@biscaynediverit’s “taboo” according to her but in reality picking the electorate for the poll is literally the job of pollsters
Her methodology in the past has been good.We are going down a dangerous path if we are going to start investigating people for being wrong about a poll….
@@baronvonricklive9687 100%. It's not "taboo," it's standard practice in the industry.
@@biscaynediver I’ve been following Baris since 2016. I have plenty of experience thanks lol. And maybe re read what I said and then realize you and I said the same thing and your comment is pointless
Re. Ann Selzer: Mark gently questioned Ann as you would someone who was new at the job. Ann's defense was that of a newbie saying she did her best. She was also asked by a member of the gallery if maybe she should have backed off once she saw the results were outside the average, but she threw the Des Moines Register under the bus by pushing back that they didn't question her. She came across as a child produced from the marriage of the Wizard of Oz and Bernie Madoff.
Mark is unable to mask his bias for Ann. He’s admitted they’re friends.
@@caseyking0917 I'm thinking perhaps Ann stood by Mark when others turned their back on him after his Me Too outing, so he is reciprocating. Just a guess.
@@TheRavenal very astute observation. These elitist types will usually cover for each other.
Her top reason for why the poll was off is that "voters in my sample didn't vote, they lost interest in the final days" ?? and then she lists "I'm getting voicemails suggesting the election was stolen and my poll was right" 😂 This is not as bad as Alan Lichtman but its close
In fairness to Ann, she referenced that stolen thing in the context of what she said were conspiracy calls on both sides.
This is worse than lichtman. At least lichtman accepts that he was wrong and his keys didn’t work.
Selzer is still trying to pretend the garbage she put out has some legitimacy
@@croczOTK Lichtman hasn't really accepted his keys were wrong. He says he does and then goes on to blame misinformation and an uninformed electorate. So he's basically saying his keys are still correct if the voters weren't fooled.
It’s exactly the same. Both are blaming the voters.
@@TravNicholson at least both her and lichtman are willing to go full “mask off”
Why did she not release the crosstabs of this poll earlier? If it had shown a recall of Biden +1, everyone would have known it was off
She was asked on a previous program by someone in the gallery about the crosstabs, no answer.
Mark, if you want to be respected as a journalist, act like one. You turned this episode into a shameless promotion of Ann Selzer. It was a giant bias-driven editorial. Your job is not to promote your guests, defend their work or opinions, but to ask them probing questions, challenge them, elicit insightful commentary from them, then offer them opportunity to respond in long form. If you were serious about being a journalist, you'd have invited Mark Rasmussen on with Ann and asked them both probing questions and let them speak for themselves, rather than injecting your own very strong opinions. Don't you see the people who come to 2Way are trying to get away from the media pronouncing what the "truth" is from on high and acting as though they know more than their audience? That kind of arrogance and condescension only erodes your credibility. You act as thought there is no reasonable basis for any criticism of Ann's poll. That simply isn't the case, and if you don't know that, then you aren't as knowledgable about the science of polling as you think you are. Yes, Ann is a friend, and yes, we respect that you are defensive of her on her behalf when her motives are impugned. But you'd do well to have a little faith in your audience and let them make up their own minds as to motivations and intentions. If you polled your audience, I think you'd find most care about actions, outcomes and results, not the motivations.
Agree
Tomorrow he'll just say comments were a cesspool.. ignoring all of this
What was wrong with the poll, methodologically? Mark talks about public polls being done on shoestring budgets compared to vastly better funded internal polls, so they often don’t get sufficiently large or representative samples and thus you *shouldn’t put an enormous amount of confidence in a given public poll*. What mistake did she make that other public pollsters don’t make?
Push polling is real. It is conducted by partisans. To be effective you have to obscure your partisanship and build credibility until the opportune moment for the big push.
Don't think she would have done the interview under those circumstances.
Mark ... I like your show but your decision to promote Selzer does not help you ... and those of us taking a chance on you, may need to reconsider that decision. Be an honest broker and bring other pollsters on to counter Anne.
Mark, Ann needs to retire without comment.
It is SO OBVIOUS she was in the tank for Democrats. And so are you!!!
Don't be like the unhinged leftists on here that demand more favorable coverage to their beliefs. Don't be like them.
My goodness this pollster was a train wreck. Just say you got it wrong and you’ll do better next time. All this excuse making is not needed.
At least 90% of abortions involve a completely healthy baby and a completely healthy mother, and do not involve rape or incest.
All politicians know this. And yet left leaning politicians obscure the facts to pander to the women of their party. As has been said of the recent election, it's no longer about being pro-choice, but being pro-abortion. Sad.
@@jotolo1840 so sad.
I would have guessed even higher
@@tintshady2049 It's over 99%.
"Elective abortion" should be used more in rhetoric to avoid the red herrings.
Ann doesnt discuss that Emerson released an Iowa poll the same time that showed completely different results. I dont believe she released the cross tabs so others could analyze her data set when the poll was released. She seems to smart and experienced to be releasing a poll so far off a few days before an election.
I just don’t get why she would release a poll that was in her own words “stunning”, and also such an outlier from every other poll. In any profession, if you do a bad job, you pay a price for it, why should a pollster be any different? Her intention doesn’t matter, she received the natural blowback for doing a poor job.
Mark needs to stop making excuses for her professional underperformance. One “good” poll from her in 2008 shouldn’t be the basis for assessing her competency for the rest of her career. Her methodology is obviously not intellectually sound. She suggested at the time that OLD WOMEN were behind the anomaly in her ludicrous poll. Well, SHE falls within that category and it’s about time she retires.
She was always mediocre at best. Mark is biased; he admitted they’re pals.
The problem with pollsters is that many don't publish outliers. She is one of the best pollsters by every metric before this election.
So if a pollster gets a surprising result and they can’t see anything they did wrong methodologically, they should just throw it out? That doesn’t seem like a very good way to conduct research lol
Mark, I felt the good ol’ boy (girl) club kick into gear when a week or so ago you jumped all over Sean Spicer for simply showing doubt about Selzer’s objectivity. It seems you want to protect the club more than get to the truth here.
Long time Republican here, abd this guy is the next star of the Democrat party
If Ann polled and Trump was ahead in Washington State by +3 would she publish?
Of course not... these "mistakes" only go one way and always in favor of the Democrats
One of the biggest issues with Ann's poll is the fact that she didn't have a clue how out of touch her poll was with her electorate, when anyone with a brain knew that poll wasn't even remotely possible given the 2020 outcome. It just doesn't pass the smell test that people around her didn't tell her how off she was.
@kinggordon8762 yah it never made sense to me. She had to have done it for a reason. No way that was an honest poll.
Mark i don't care if she was your "friend". This was a very inappropriate way to cover for her. THAT POLL was a travesty and sneaks to high heaven. Period.
Hopefully this is the last time we hear about "my good friend ann selzer" on 2way
Tuning in to see if Ann admits she was paid off for that poll.
@@kinggordon8762 , me too
They gave her enough to retire.
Democrats stay the course please. Remain Irrelevant!😊
If you get a poll that makes absolutely no sense why release it. At least do a second poll and see if the numbers match up. Ann cooked her reputation and career because she couldn't believe her polling system could be wrong. Happy retirement.
It was a strange anomaly and I’m guessing because she had that accurate Obama poll in ‘08 which was exact that this would repeat. Albeit I can be as human and tribal like others, I don’t think she was - in the words of Mark - trying to “cook the books”.
I just think she was not being objective, she desperately wanted Kamala to win and it led her to do what she did with this poll. I don’t believe that she did it purposefully to affect the outcome of the election.
@@txDDS I don’t believe there was enough time to conduct another poll. It was released on the Saturday before Election Day.
I’m not sure who shot through their own reputations worse, Ann Selzer with an 11hr outlier Iowa poll (throwing advantage to Harris) or Prof Allan Lichtman and his 13-keys to the Presidency (again Advantage Harris). When it was clear to anyone paying attention, Iowa was DJT country all along and if you actually ran Lichtman’s 13-keys, again Trump clearly held more keys.
Yeah that’s a great way to do research/science - if you get a weird result and can’t find any flaw in the methodology, just keep redoing the poll until the results better match your priors lol
Know enough about how this works to skip this evening's show.
I would like Mark to bring on Bannon for some perspective.
Being fair and balanced and all.
Peace, love, and understanding.
Wonder how much Harris Campaign paid Ann for her idiocy?
@@markayouso that’s what I’ve thought about too. Clearly the Harris campaign internal polling was bad, and they used this Iowa poll as a last ditch effort to get out the vote nationwide. Ironically it probably worked as far as the popular vote a little, but not nearly enough.
The My First Million podcast recently discussed the person who won millions betting on a Trump win on Polymarket. It turns out that guy lives in France. He paid a pollster to take polls in the US, but instead of asking who the person was planning to vote for, they asked who they thought their neighbor was going to vote for. The results indicated a huge Trump landslide. So he placed his bet on polymarket for a Trump win even though the odds were terrible and it payed off in a big way.
You are better than this Mr. Halperin.
She should’ve compared her BS poll to polls in other states with similar demographics. This exercise would’ve shown that her BS poll was clearly an anomaly. Unfortunately she let her hate for Trump and her bias toward Harris get in the way. Too bad you tanked your reputation on the way out, Ann. 😃
Because of your channel I heard Ritchie Torres for the first time. What an impressive young man. Thank you all.
My boy Ritchie sounds an awful lot like a republican. One day he might find himself crossing over---love the guy.
Sounds like a rational democrat to me…
Omg, neither sounds like a Republican. They sound like the democrats. Majority of Trumps positions on policies were former Democratic positions. Trump won over democrats because it’s what democrats always ran on.
I’m a democrat & voted for Trump because he sounds more like a democrat than the Democratic Party
@@daviddombrowski7943 exactly
Wkipedia states that the final Iowa Poll before the election was a D+3 poll. As someone who was born in Iowa and has dozens of family members living there, I can tell you that Iowa is not a D+3 state. It might have been during the Obama years, but no longer. I apologize if I'm misreading the data. I was unable to find the crosstabs on the Register's website. What I don't understand is how the Register's editors could in good conscience run with poll the week before the election when they knew it skewed Democrat unless they were trying to influence the outcome nationally.
Wow, I can’t believe people quote Morning Joe
Really wild isn't it
Torres: great guest. Selzer: owes Mark big-time for airing this lengthy apologia. Nobody cares now. Credibility can't be regained.
Whatever makes ya sleep better at night, Ms. Selzer.
Let's see if Chris mentions that he went to Harvard.
I was shocked he didn’t mention it.
Well the poor guy can't get over the fact that black americans actually voted for Trump.
@@neerajchaudhary1821 Mark went to Harvard and has never mentioned it.
And that race has everything to do with everything.
Worst polling miss of this election by far. A 15 points miss is nearly impossible, you have to try hard. Odds are this was a push poll for Harris.
She was brave to face the public.
Polls are judged by success or failure. Yours failed miserably. You can make excuses now until you're blue in the face. Retirement is the correct choice.
My first time listening to Congressman Torres- awesome- thank you!
Great to hear from this Congressman. Wish him well.
Super episode. Very well done and thanx heaps from Australia
Ann Selzer at Harris +3. The final result was Trump +11. She was either incompetent or corrupted.
@@brianthomassen2209 it opened my eyes once again to the fact that polls are useless
Most likely a little bit of both. She didn’t put her finger on the scale, she stood on it. Buh bye, Ann. Good riddance.
Tomatoe - tomatoe
Actual result was Trump +13
For Ann’s poll to be right literally every single other poll both nationally and in swing states this entire cycle needed to be wrong. Think about that
Why would anyone quote Joe Scarborough?
I I don’t know the last time Mark had someone on that he just turned the platform over to for half the show? We tune in for a 2 way convo.
Excellent interview with Rep. Torres. He understands the working class. I hope his influence is exerted on the modern Democratic Party.
Wrong….Anne was trying to hype up Kamala voters. End of story.
Yup. And she failed quite miserably. Serves her right.
This is the truth. Mark doesn’t want anyone to say this though.
The timing fit in perfectly with the media narrative of how Harris was closing strong and Trump was closing weak.
Looked like a garbage poll. (I got an A in 700-level Statistics in Grad School.)
Mark's pandering to an obvious liar (Selzer) calls into question the entire premise of this platform.
He is completely out of touch. He brags about being besties with Mika and Joe. He has no credibility.
BS!
Ritchie impressed me.
Torres comes across as very Smart and has a realization of where His party is going wrong!
Yet he voted with the far left on every issue..... so he's full of BS now
Me thinks the lady doth protest to much
I thought she “retired”??
Nooooooo!!!! I missed this live!!!
You didn’t miss anything.
This man needs to be the leader of the Democratic Party, not Gavin Newsom, Alvin Bragg. Come on, democrats, get some good people into leadership positions.
And I am Trump voter, but the congressman makes a great argument for centrist democrats.
Mark we get that Ann is a long time friend but there is nothing redeemable about her performance before the election.
Her methodology was shamelessly biased “and she knew that”.
She knew the poll was a misfire but decided to publish it anyway.
She then went on a media tour defending the poll “which she knew was garbage”. I might add on mostly liberal MSM platforms.
We’ve seen pollsters miss by 7-10 and sometimes it happens. The sample could be skewed by bias and the methodology of the poll may be flawed.
Ann missed by nearly 17 points! 17! Not 5! Not 8! Not 10! Not 12! Not 14! Not 16! 17 points!
Not to be arrogant but I could walk into five restaurants in Iowa and conduct a better poll than she did. The poll was putrid, shameless, and an obvious psychop designed to discourage Trump voters “which is what it was because the MSM ran with the narrative for days leading up to the election”.
To use a football analogy…..
Ann’s team just got crushed in a 50pt blowout loss. She’s trying to say that it wasn’t that bad and that there is room for improvement.
Unfortunately in that situation the coach, gm, and front office are getting fired.
That poll wasn’t a “ah we’ll get em next time”…….. That was a PERMANENT CAREER ENDER.
We appreciate you wanting to keep things civil and interesting but this woman should have ZERO voice in American Politics after what just happened.
aMEN!🇺🇸😇
Kudos to Congressman Torres - one of few Democrats in Congress that are genuine and reasonable
Robbe Torres should run as a Republican Candidate for NY Governor - Republicans would show up for him across the state and so would most independents, plus a good chunk of NYC Dems.
There’s way more democrats in New York.
“One in twenty polls is just off” ….especially in the last week before the election, and when Kamala was desperate.
It seems like the democrats are going to break apart
The post modern utopian left is destroy everything. They touch until they can shake that they're done most people on both sides of the aisle have a visceral reaction to their lack of objective truth.
2020 Primary wasn't open - it was open AT THE BEGINNING but then Bernie started winning the early primaries and the rest was split across such a large candidate pool the primaries were on a path to take up to the convention to secure enough delegates AND were likely to win the field like Trump in 2016. The DEMS expressed concern that if they had to keep pouring money through an extended primary it would really hurt the general election fundraising window. They were also concerned about Bernie being the likely winner bc there were so many moderates diluting the moderate vote. So, they forced a COLLAPSE of the field before Super Tuesday rather than letting it flow out a natural process. What made it even worse is that Biden was in 5th place going into SC and bartering a Black Woman SCOTUS nominee/Black female VP selection for Clyburn's to save his nomination in SC. And they DID IT KNOWING Biden was already showing Cognitive Decline. The DNC/DEM elites/MEDIA colluded to suppress reporting on Biden's Cognitive Decline out of pure malice toward Trump and for their own personal POWER. COLLUSION+COUP=TREASON
I’m so glad that Torres is being honest about Biden failing at the border issue.
I've never voted for a dem, and I live in a different state, but I have to say.... Ritchie Torres is an impressive guy.
I think Ann seems sincere, I wish her well
This is all that needed to happen with Ann. Just like the blue team, when you aren't responding to a mistake or a problem people will choose their own adventure and you get drowned with hate and trolls. Just show people that you are A: Aware of the problem and B: Willing to take that problem serious. Good on her and on Mark for taking the time to hold folks hands through the process of how she came to what she did.
If I get to ask Ann Selzer a question, it would be "how do you ensure your samples and sampling method are reliable?"
Shocked weirdo Mark didn't comment on Torres' appearance like he does every time a somewhat fit man comes on.
I don't know why you're so willing to burn any reputation defending her taking a check? I mean.. we all have eyes..
She got enough to retire.
Her explanation seems perfectly reasonable, but Ann’s poll simply doesn’t pass the smell test.
This congressman gives me hope
She was so close and then she had to quote Joe Scarborough 😅
Please get out of the polling business! My dog did better
I had a monkey throw a dart at a board and he was more accurate.
Mark speaks like he is in Anne’s head
As the great Steve Bannon says, “there are no conspiracies, but there are no coincidences.”🇺🇸🦅
I’m not mad at her for getting the poll wrong, polls are a snapshot of a minute in time and is dependent on the underlying data, although I do think her personal bias was considered. I actually find it kind of funny that the dem media and trump haters got all invested in it as if it were the gospel truth and didn’t look at the underlying data and consider her bias.
I don’t k ow the first congressman but he is 100% right on!
Thank goodness the Democrats will not learn anything from the past election. It’s a Blessing that will keep on Giving
If my job was to gather data and apply it to get a likely result of something… and it was public… I need to be on with criticism when I’m wrong. I wouldn’t need or want my friend to try and rescue me. You live by your data if it is your job to gather, extrapolate, and provide insight on preferences of voters or potential voters. So… it’s like being a public figure. It’s your job.. it’s public… you’re not always going to get positive feedback.
I like Ann. Very nice. I wish her the best.
The Poll wasn’t right!
As soon as I saw the Trump 40 Biden 41 2020 recall stats on the slideshow, I knew that was the problem. And sure enough, Ann explained that had she controlled her numbers based on 2020 recall, it would have been Trump + 6 instead of Harris + 3. Still a miss, but not egregious, and at least she would have had the right candidate picked, and nobody would have thought differently about the poll. Rasmussen consistently posted videos talking about the importance of weighting for the 2020 recall vote, and they absolutely nailed this election. So the issue isn't about people's ability to remember who they voted for-the issue is that weighing for recall works!
Seth Keshel again please
Ann Selzer: 😂😂😂😂😂
This Congressman is profoundly insightful and articulate. I don’t know his positions but so far what I’ve seen here, he would have been a wonderful candidate. The Democratic Party missed out on an impressive candidate.
I gave respect for Ann. But these explanations don’t relate to the poll they put out. They seem to go against it. It’s probably me, but I don’t get it. I’m lost.
Ritchie looks perfect and has powerful friends.
His background and stance on Israel alone will disqualify him from any higher Dem office, particularly if current trends continue.
The dems would never ever vote for a safe, legal and rare abortion federal law
Dems are always opposing State amendments like
1. Parental notification for minors
2. Health standards for clinics
3. Reporting minor pregnancies for statutory rape
4. Informed consent including sonograms
5. Clinic responsibity for complications, injuries, death
Ritchie Torres is very very smart men!
As long as dems keep discussing race/gender as a priority, I as a proud Trump Supporter since 2011 sleep VERY soundly at night, MAGA!🇺🇸🎉
Representative Torres is WAY too smart and reasonable to stay in the Democrat Party.
Ann double check again.
Mark your defense of Selzer triggered my gag reflex. It’s obvious what she was doing in her last poll. 13 points… 16 points between Selzer poll and outcome is to corrupt to ignore
What about the Emerson poll?
Ann is the perfect representation of the Democrat party.
I find Torres hilarious as he votes with the far left issues every time. He's a liar.
I cannot remember the last time anyone said anything about defund the police... What's he talking about? Harris ran as a moderate
This show is starting to stink from Bias
What an impressive individual
Very appreciative of Ann to come on and explain the rezults from her newly purchased NYC penthouse.
Probably a good idea for Selzer to retire. Clearly, she's embarrassed herself.
Around 17:00 minutes the guys question is a battle the right has won. It’s winnable.
You have to care more about the consequences of staying silent than you are of the consequences of speaking.
You have to be courageous & speak unpopular truths. You have to be louder than the loudest group. You have to be unapologetic because they will use your empathy against you. It takes time & people get slandered, loose their job, etc. on the way but eventually your message breaks through the noise once enough people are courageous. It becomes contagious.
Also unapologetic doesn’t mean be like DeSantis and never back down. Some of his supporters took that way too literally. You should apologize when necessary.