Inflation To Make SHOCK Return! (UK House Price Crash 2024)
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- Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024
- UK inflation is set to soar again in a SHOCK move that will send PANIC through the UK housing market. Some may believe that the UK House Price CRASH is over as recent inflation and mortgage rates fall have led to an increase in activity from buyers and sellers, however, with a potential inflation shock on the horizon the future for UK House Prices in 2024 is still very uncertain!
The Red Sea crisis has led to a huge increase in freight container prices, with popular routes via the Suez Canal experiencing price increases of over 400%!
The ECB and OECD estimate that each 50% increase in container costs could lead to a 0.25% increase in inflation, so if prices remain high then a second wave of inflation is extremely likely.
A study by a federal bank suggests that it can take up to 11 months for the full effects of shipping prices to filter through to inflation indexes. This may mean that the current soaring container prices aren't seen in inflation figures until the end of the year.
Container prices can have an impact on more than just the cost of products, they can also impact food, drink, clothing and energy.
This uncertainty means UK house price predictions and forecasts are currently very difficult to make, without lower rates the UK housing market has very little chance of recovery.
What will happen to UK house prices in 2024? How much will house prices drop in 2024? Post your UK house price forecasts in the comments!
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Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy.
I think I could really use more guidance to navigate the market, it is completely overwhelming, I've liquidated most of my assets and I could really use some advice on what best to invest into.
Your best option if you are unfamiliar with the markets is to seek advice or help from a consultant or investing coach. I know it sounds simple or generic, but talking to a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. For me, it's the best method to enter the market right now.
please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.
Predicting 17 of the last 0 housing market crashes. 👏👏👏
I am ex navy. I know difficult it is to protect shipping assets. today's hit on the mv eagle has opened up a new headache as they hit her hundreds of miles from where the naval task force is. I expect US to hit them harder in the next few days but strikes to continue. Hitting unprotected ships with anti ship missile is pretty easy providing you know its location within a few miles they are large slow radar friendly targets. Don't expect shipping costs to come down any time soon! This will go on for months, maybe years
April/May WW3. Shipping costs are going to be the least of our worries.
Why? The US will crush the rebels and that will be that.
What this video fails to point out is that freight prices are topping out at 5k no where near the 20k from the pandemic. It is also Chinese New Year period where you always get hight freight rates, before they start to reduce as capacity increases again on the ocean liners. Adding 10 days to freight times should not see the equipment shortages of 2021 also as port authorities and shopping lines have learnt valuable lessons since then (reducing port free time for a start). So yes the costs are higher now than a month ago, but as capacity returns to the market (some of these new vessels carry 25k teus) prices should cool end February again. It is also noted that some Chinese owned shipping lines are negotiating to return to the Suez of they can guarantee no Israel stopover. I work in the shipping industry and so wanted to give a bit more nuanced answer to this video which is reaching a bit!
He’s always reaching
Thank you
Keep posting, at some point in the next 20 years you are going to be right.
Being your counter argument then, of course bashers never do.
@@squibys2262 I'm a builder developer (professional). Been building new for 39 years so I've seen this crap now 4 times. I can tell you one thing that's always true. There are people in the market that will ALWAYS come out on top with time. Then there are people out of the market who ALWAYS come out on the bottom. Then there are people who talk about the market. Talk is cheap.
The 2044 crash is well under way!!
@@RabJ208 🤣
@@squibys2262the counter argument is the guy making the videos hasn’t got a clue, but there are so many people out there who wrongly think a house market crash will mean it will be easier for them to buy a property, so he makes these videos to make money off those people watching them.
He predicted a crash in 2019 and prices went up 13%.
Taking a few data points and thinking they can predict when a market correction will happen is beyond moronic.
Let’s hope this leads to a proper crash in house prices - if nothing else to wipe the arrogant attitude of Halifax, Nationwide and Rightmove and their pathetic attempts at talking up the market.
It just won’t happen.
Mate, don't worry. The houses will crushed once we go to WW3 in April/May 🤣
don't be so greedy. The house prices have really crashed big time in a long long time! Just take advantage now or lose it, it can't possibly go down more in such a short period in the same time limit! Think that people who sell are downsizing due to high mortgage rates which increase their monthly payments so people who sell-buy, if you think both sides and the chain purchases, it can't go down way too much..
Am hanging fire the crash I feel is coming and it will be horrible.
That's when I will buy.
@@Tech-Corner2023 There's another 3 years of price attrition. We've only had the warm-up act so far.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
This seems like the worst period.Even the markets are very unpredictable.started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high, today i am more than 60% down
The current situation is incredibly dire for people in the United States and other countries. The global economy is facing a significant downturn, with increasing inflation rates and unemployment figures.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this consultant?
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Shipping costs pushed retail prices up, did they come down again when shipping costs reduced?
Red sea at night. Buyers delight
It's funny. The doom mongering community say "lowering inflation doesn't negatively impact house prices". But now with this red sea nonsense they say "inflation is going to rise and push house prices down". Hahahaha
Thank you Darren for your remarkable content. Opinion is indeed divided, you say there is a massive crash coming, all of the property experts say there isn't. Who am I going to trust - a bunch of industry professionals with a vested interest or a guy on RUclips also with a vested interest? I always side the underdog! You've been saying for 2+ years there will be a crash and you are right there will, it might be in 10 years but eventually you'll be proven right. Thanks to you I've elected to make "the right decision" and put my property on the market at a loss. Thank you.
Just like an ageing boxer who refuses to stop - these doom monger RUclipsrs refuse to stop blowing the "there's a crash coming" trumpet. This stubbornness won't end well for them . Their legacy destroyed.
Lenders Santander, Skipton and Coventry building societies continue to cut mortgage rates despite shock🤣 inflation rise
Santander
60 per cent LTV two-year fixed rate residential purchase mortgage with a £999 product fee is now priced at 4.10 per cent, down from 4.55 per cent.
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyper-inflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
@@joshbarney114 I want to play the long term game with well diversified fund. Please how can i reach this CFP of yours?
I think this should be the best time to put cash to work rather than allow it lie waste to inflation. I'm ready to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks. I just need ideas on how to navigate the bear markets and other sectors to diversify
In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024
Please how do I find and contact this financial counselor ?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Nicole Desiree Simon for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
There will no house price crash, he has been telling this for 2 yrs now
Charlie is worse. He's been saying a crash is coming since 2020. Lol
What never again? Boom and bust mate that's how modern economy works.
@@squibys2262, the market will rise between 5 and 10%. Stop following doom mongering RUclipsrs who don't know what's going on.
Crapping yourself?
House orives will be the last of our worries, during the coming years!
@@andrewtaylor6737, property doubles in value every 10 years on average. Cheak this out:
1950 the average price of a propery was £1,891
1960 the average £2,189
1970 the average £4,975
1980 the average shot up £20,897
1990 the average £59,987
2000 the average £82,563
2010 the average £177,754
2020 the average £252,000.
The average property in 1950 will have gone up X127 times
Rhys Davies, a former government trade adviser who now advises clients at the consultancy firm Flint Global, said freight costs had clearly been affected by tensions in the Red Sea, but that the impact on inflation would probably be limited.
“The effect feeds into the economy pretty slowly, taking about 12 months after the spike [in shipping costs,” he said. “So if the disruption is time-limited, as we would expect, it will probably be drowned by wider disinflationary impacts.”
Although global freight costs have risen sharply in recent days thanks to the Red Sea disruption, they remain significantly lower than two years ago. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, the most widely used index for sea freight rates for imports from China worldwide, is down by more than half.
ING Economist
This Wednesday’s CPI release for December might be too early to see that, and we’re only expecting a fractional tick lower in the headline measure to 3.8%. It’s a similar story for core, which strips out food and energy. But by April, headline inflation is set to fall below 2% and drop to 1.5% in May. We expect it to stay below 2% until November.
More excellent analysis. Keep 'em coming.
How can analysis that has been continuously wrong be excellent?
There has been no 20% crash and all this guy is doing is clutching at straws because he convinced his Mrs to sell at the bottom of the market to rent just as Landlords started increasing their rents by astronomical levels.
Honest Moaner appears more like a stooge for greedy private landlords looking to cash in on convincing fools to sell their own homes cheap to rent expensive instead.
We've decided to pull the trigger on a property, managed to get 15% off the original asking price and we feel that it is a good price for the area. Not sure we would have saved any money waiting it out anymore and would have potentially missed out on the property we liked! Also the money we've saved now (£90k off the asking) we wouldn't have saved on the lower interest rates sometime later this year. I think its worth considering if now is the time and don't be afraid to put in cheeky offers, estate agents legally have to present it to the seller!
If I could get a 600k listed house for 510k I’d pull the trigger. You’ve done well there but I don’t get the feeling most sellers arent ready to take that hit
Never a dull moment in this world ffs
Interesting take on things
Just an observation. When Halifax, Nationwide state that prices are coming down, its cited as evidence but when they state that prices are going up, they are wrong! It looks as though interest rates are going to come down quickly, those that made huge gains during covid, will switch from saving with higher interest to buying property. The pressure is for house prices is to rise. If you are correct, isn't it better to borrow as much as possible to buy and let inflation negate the debt?
excellent video.
Fascinating insight into this metric. Thanks for explaining.
What do you ship from Shanghai?
Another great video. If the situation in the Middle East escalates then it also will have massive effect on oil and gas prices. I would say there is a 50/50 chance of massive increase in inflation this year.
Actual inflation will go up but the Govt will lie and show lower inflation as it needs any excuse to reduce interest rates and hence mortgage rates by May 2024 and people will allow it, prices are rising at alarming rates so how is inflation down?
The bigger risk is deflation now.
Please,,how can I make profitable investment as crypto has become dominant ?
Most times you don't just start trading on your own, sorry for your loss, I will advise you to get a professional in this..
How can someone know a professional trader when legit once are very hard to find.
I will advise you stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
I don't trades on my own anymore,l always required help and assistance.
From my personal financial advisor
I've seen a positive reviews of this professional must be exceptionally for people to talk about her goodness.
Your channel has great information, thank you. Heading over to your other channel now.
keep trying, your going for the world record for being wrong
You sound like a Remoaner!
When the 2052 crash happens he'll do a video on how right he was. Lol
"Those who bury thier head in the sand" - Says the guy who suggests a house price crash for 2 years and house prices are still up and selling....huge demand and no supply, it aint rocket science Darren
These RUclipsrs who are publicly predicting a crash are harming their own reputations. Unfortunately there are people who still take this guy seriously.
The UK economy may see inflation rise by 0.2 to 0.5 per cent due to commercial disruption caused by the Houthis in Yemen continuing to target vessels on the Red Sea, according to Whitehall calculations.
Independent
Red Sea ship attacks could push UK inflation up
well yes, no **** sherlock!
The inteconnected energy grid and lack of indigenous storage+production might have a bit of a bearing too!
These projects "SHOULD" have been managed as a strategic reserve,despite what the doomsayers and green gospel preachers were espousing.But they weren't.
Green gospel was taken as gospel,and we had shortages due to lack of storage/capacity/shutdowns.
The governments sort of have seen the error of their ways, but re-commissioning takes years,and the zealots are still preaching....if you want to have peace,you have to prepare for war......which they haven't been doing for ages....classic UK in actual fact, did the same pre WW2,and the same pre falklands, very nearly paid a terrible price for it too.
the other side to this is economic theory.the way to cure a supply side shock is not to curb demand....it is to increase supply.
Big bods not got their head around that yet.
Houthis fired rockets at gas tankers, gas prices went down, why? No demand! More than a little bit weird cheering on death and destruction, but unfortunately as the gas price trend shows it doesn’t matter what the idiots abroad are doing to shipping. in 2020/21 there was excess demand, combined with increased shipping costs and supply chain issues. Now we have low demand (and trending lower), no supply chain issues and a little spike in shipping costs. How can goods prices go up, where is the demand coming from? All that will happen this time is retailer margins get squeezed to death
Goldman Sachs research article on this said that doubling shipping container costs changes inflation between 0.5% -1%.
It's not a massive shock.
Uncertainty in middle east can still play a part, but shipping container costs won't seem like they'll have a dramatic impact, especially with oil prices likely to remain stable.
Also, we are nowhere near levels seen during the pandemic.
Great video, clean and clear keep it up mate just subscribed
Despite the longer route, the number of containers has stayed the same and quantity of goods has probably declined. Fuel burnt has risen but not by 400%. It just requires a bit more forward planning for deliveries. And maybe this will be a call to move some manufacturing closer to India or even return it to Europe. Many factories in China are closing down due to lack of demand.
This housing industry is a con. Anyone can view all sold house prices for any postcode by going to the Land Registry sold house prices data base. I did Huddersfield with 111 sales for September and the first two houses on the list had dropped by 30% and 20% on the highest estimate on Zoopla. Also, the ONS state because of 22% less sales they can only include around 50% less sales in their calculation. If that is not false accounting then what is. This is a 8.7 trillion market so a 1% under reporting each month is 87 billion. Why is that not the biggest fraud in financial history. If any company pretended their shares were worth 87 billion more than they would end up in prison. I have no doubt the government is in on this and order the Land Registry to take off those sales that have fallen the most. If they do not what the hell is the ONS doing?
Let's not forget the root cause of the high inflation and stagflation of the 1970s. The Suez canal was closed from 1967 to 1975 due to trouble in the area.
Actually inflation can be good for house buyers, like my parents who paid £5000 for their 3 bed semi in Bristol back in 1968. By the time they had double glazing put in it cost more than the house.
We weren't so dependent on goods from the Far East in those days.
So how is inflation good for buyers there? You mean it’s good for home owners?
OMG! This guy has a crystal ball! ONS figures announced today (17 Jan), that’s AFTER this video was posted, shows inflation up! Respect to Honest Money.
God, the policy makers just dont get it
how can a few of us see inflation out there but they arnt,
so Decembers figure has gone 3.9% up to 4%
Economists were wrong by as much as 0.2%. What a tragedy🤣
You probably didn't notice that inflation surprisingly dropped significantly last month.😎
Inflation often rise unexpectedly and next fell sharply.
Inflation never falls in a straight line. 😉
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My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
Best life changing advice is to pick a good financial mentor and let them guide you towards wealth. This really saves you from loss and time wasting. I am glad I know Yetta Cox.
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You could bury your head in the sand for 12 years and house prices would have doubled ! That is a cert…
Well said!
I'd like to see a video on what's going on in Hong Kong and China right now
Do you offer any mentorship?
You follow him you will never get on the property market….
A very high amount of new instructions are coming onto the market daily in Surrey. A good area to focus on with a mix of high end and low end properties. Lots of people are coming to the end of their fixed rates and they are panic selling. Add to that inflation and lenders dropping rates just to sell money and you can paint the picture of what is coming. Agencies are still overvaluing to win the instructions and are adding fuel to the fire. Only so much you can blow up the balloon. The bang wil be loud.
PAST MY HOME TOWN, CAPE TOWN 😂👍🇿🇦🇬🇧🇿🇦🇬🇧
It’s inevitable market is going down people in denial. People living in Alice in wonderland bubble
Yeah 5% then next year up 7% hahaha
lol you have no evidence of this, it is you who is delusional , its simply a demand and supply issue - crash will never happen
I work in McDonalds and I'm just waiting for the big crash so that I can finally live in the mansion I deserve.
You care just copying the Albino looking guys property videos, as well and making about 20 videos re UK house price crashes/drops, none or which have happened. Although I guess you can't be wrong all of the time if you keep predicting the same thing.
What has someone’s personal appearance got to do with their insights
All planned, of course
whats the plan?
Apparently by 2030 I'll own nothing and be happy. I wonder are they going to send in the Police or the Military to seize all of my possessions?
@@RabJ208 itll be a team of lawyers with special arsehole rights
The price of food continues to rise and it does not rise in small steps it doubles.
Until the developers build much more new housing, I'll keep investing in property.
Many new homes are needed and the demand is soaring vs supply, as always.
As long as housing can be purchased by the wealthy as cash flow machines... I'm sorry to say, but it will keep rising in value.
If you can't afford rent at 1.5k a month, somebody else can. That's the issue.
As an asset class, it's so heavily invested in by the eilte that it can't ever fail... just like oil money.
Get on the ladder yesterday is my advice.
No, I think deflation will happen in a few months.
Also ,,after all this years you say the market will Crash.
Price been double .
since your Crashed vlog,lol
Did you manage to get a house in between??!😢😢😢
Is it house price crash 2024 now, thought it was 2023 and 2022.. oh and 2021. Dope.
Video number 500 on a house price crash that doesn't happen. Landlords making a fortune on renters.
Do yourselves a favour renters, buy a property this year, before prices increase out of reach.
One of those clueless sheep...
RE; '' buy a property this year, before prices increase out of reach.''
I sold my home September 2021 for £403k. Unfortunately the chain fell apart (not from my end). I have had another fall through more recently (buyer changed her mind), and my agent today has revalued my home at £325k. That is a decrease of £78k which is almost 20%.
I am seeing many instances of properties either going sideways or increasing since the peak of '22 and most are not shifting - All about affordability.
@@jamessky9155Good, good, I see the same here in the SE...
Prices have been out of reach in the south for a decade. In the north, since 2020. Bring back the 2019 prices, i can afford those now 😭 i could afford the current prices, if they stay the exact same, for 2 or 3 more years.
Notice how Charlie's language is beginning to change:
He predicted the market would drop 35%
The he claimed that he never "predicted" the market would drop 35% and that it was his "expectation" that the market would drop 35%.
More recently he's been saying things like "look guy's I'm not always right and I don't care, my focus from now on will be on helping people move on because I don't have time to debate" etc
I used to pay around 16 quid for an online takeaway as a treat. Now it's gone up to 20 quid! That's like over 20% increase!
The only thing I see coming down was petrol prices but not by much.
Yes, they say you can get a mortgage rate under 4% now but you need at least a 40 percent deposit. It has not really changed much apart from helping current landlords who need to remortgage or cash buyers that need a bit of a top up.
First time buyers are out the game for now until there is a real decrease in rates for them.
I'm basing this theory on the London market, as it's already really expensive to buy and rent!
First time buyers at 75% LTV can get rates at 4.5%. This time last year it was over 8%.
A broken clock is right 2 times a day.
Keep it up, one day you might be right 👍
The 2052 crash is underway!
what planet do you live on?
do you not understand vectors?
@@bigmacntings7451, I understand vectors very well. If the crash happens in 2052 - will he say "told you so" ?
Sunak considers radical plan for 99% mortgages to help first-time buyers
House prices in the UK will fall to 40% terraced 50% semi detached 60% detached and 65% buildings over £500000 @2018
🤣👍
If you search hard enough you will find evidence for any bias you have - I didn’t buy on your basis and lost thousands thanks
Unfortunately you aren't the only victim of these online "guru's". There a channel "moving home with Charlie" promoting the idea that prices are going to dive 35%. Hundreds of his followers across all of his platforms are waiting for the "crash" (that isn't going to happen). There will be a lot of heartache over on that channel too.
@@RabJ208 Me thinks your either a landlord or heavily mortgaged up. Charlie is spot on and wants to help people - houses are down approx. 15% in my area from the highs and still trending down due to affordability. Its a good thing to have a correction.. if people can buy then they will. A slide is happening in front of your eyes right now...
Keep looking for excuses to support your never arriving House price crash 😂. This guy has been 3 years paying RENT after selling his house because he thought the House market was going to crash mext month of hik selling 😂😂
This guy never has good news😂
Doom doom doom doom
This dude is always predicting a house price crash , but it never happens. It's bollocks.
Play fascinating insight. 👍
Inflation goes up that’s great ! Means my 190k mortgage becomes worth peanuts ! Haha ultra cheap borrowing !
You only look on the negative side.?
When all your kids have a house you say differently.
i really appreciate your intelligence.
Sheep’s always follow sheep’s arse..lol
Darren,
Another geopolitical hot spot is Taiwan. Their new President is not of the CPP’s liking.
Tension has also increased in the contested South China Sea/West Philippines Sea. America is building new military bases, airfields and ports.
Someone has to pay the costs of war.
Isn't the Houthi action what would be called a "black swan" event ?
Not black enough
Not even close
No swans were involved as far as I am aware. Maybe flamingos.
House prices are up 1.3% for January according to right move. BoE base rate is looking likely to be cut between 6 and 10 times this year. Interest rates are being cut by virtually every bank to below 4%. Even the biggest doom and gloom merchants are now realising the games up. Your gamble didn't pay off, time to sit the wife down and admit you were way off the mark.
She has probably sat him down many times and told him he is wrong..the videos are him trying to convince himself he is right 🤣🤣🤣
Well , its because the Houthi currently attack the ships b u t there i s an international Naval Task Force on the Way to protect the Tankers and Containerships = its not really an 1 year long disturbance , it may take an quarter to normalise but at some point it will . There will be some attacks on Houthi strongholds and they will take cover for some Time i guess . With Satellite
surveillance the Houthi have not really a place to hide if western naval Forces are nearby . Besides , its not the frst Time that such attacks appear
Another ,convenient insident n china profit..shop elsewhere
EGGHEAD OFF THE YEAR 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 RAT RAT RAT