Inflation Is BACK. The 2024 Crash Starts Today
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- Опубликовано: 12 фев 2024
- US Inflation came in at 3.1% which is a month on month drop, but is higher than the 2.9% to 3.0% that analysts were expecting.
The stock market is panicking dropping 1.4% after the data came out, but is this a sign of a fundamental problems with the economy or is it a blip on the way down?
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They be hating but they be clicking.
i read it in your voice as well.
Hater here 🙋🏻♂️
We are laughing at your nonsense not hating 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Sasha, no-one believes in this "crash" narrative now mate.
😂😂😂
I really appreciate these videos Sasha, I know they don't get loads of views but these videos are one of the main reasons I subscribe.. thanks for your work man
Sasha is really quick with it, Hats off
Had to work fast to make it to the pub in time!
@@SashaYanshin
😂
Well, yes, Sasha… if you ignore recession risk, and you call for a bull market to then flip-flop in 2024 over 1 reading, throwing all of your bull market argument out the window. It makes you look very funny. Becz that what us “haters” have been trying to tell you. So thanks for doing all of that bs in your videos to the viewers that are on the other side of the trade that you now are flipping to
Fire up the interest rate rises again.
Need to go to 6% next meeting, and again to 6.5% next meeting.
Love your videos and analysis
Thank you
Sasha we love you ❤👍😁
Keep on stacking 🪙🪙🪙
Great video as always
Thank you Carl Icahn! I've been accumulating JBLU below $6 for a while now!
Inflation is mainly driven down by energy, which is now slowly going up due to demand concerns. Also the red sea crisis effects should start filtering through to prices now. I wont be surprised if inflation was still above 3% or increases in Feb
Appreciate your work. Markets likely make another ATH circa NVDA earnings next week. Next wave down shortly after. Rates are coming down, rest of the news is just noise.
At present, the most prudent consideration for everyone should be diversifying their income sources, ones not reliant on government support, particularly given the ongoing global economic challenges. This remains an opportune moment to explore investments in assets like digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, thanks to Flora Elkin for her guidance in these fields her proficiency is outstanding
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It is really refreshing to see a comment about Flora Elkin.I have worked with her also for months now, reached out after reading more about her on the internet. she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the trend, She's a guru i'll say
They are lot of people around the world who became Millionaires in recent years because they were brave enough to invest in different types of cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin. Ethereum, and others, and it is very clear that Cryptocurrency is here to stay and it is not just at passing phases that trend....
Great video! Thanks. Are there any etf or stocks crypto related in UK?
a lot of money was printed. Why should inflation stop now?
10 trillion in treasuries are being sold too :D
You just answered your own question. "WAS PRINTED"
wait until the next print
I think it's really simple. If we suddenly have twice the money, it should be half the value. And we are not there yet. Given that no value was created when working from home.
@@circuitdotlt The world runs on software that was created from home.
Well a 400g tin of C&B Brocolli&Stilton soup in ASDA has risen from £1 to £1.25p , a 25% increase .
A catastrophe, considering the entire economy is measured by Asda soup
Of all the supermarkets i think asda are trying it on more than any the other ones. Asda own brands are the same as sainsbos now and they have much better quality.
This kind of hidden inflation is disgusting.
The UK state never cared about the little person on the island of Britain.... so why do you keep waving such bullshit flags op
UK flag isn't even that native
I just side step to tne cheaper food and simplify my diet back down to £15 a week.. after some time having treats went minimalist after homelessness in 2019 thru 2021 kept stacking cash went from 300 and no carpet to fully housed decor funished all bills in credit between 3 and 12 months and 100k in the bank... tried the nice car and more expensive food it ai t worth it so back to stacking investing and min living tesla up 50% arm up 50% rolled Royce up 180% there the only three company's I invested in all obvious winners now buying my council,flat cash
I'm really hoping that the markets do cool down. "Why?"...because I have a lump of cash sitting in my pension that I've been waiting to invest since last November. I know the saying "time in the market, not timing the market", but I also know "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" and we've been in extreme greed zone the last few months.
Just looked at one Vanguard FTSE Dev World tracker that went up 13.41% in the last 12 months. Time in the Market wins most of the time.
When everyone was selling in 2022 I was buying. I invested about £100k that year overall and again in 2023. I'm still buying in 2024 and making outstanding returns. Sitting waiting is never a good idea.
Great video, one thing you forgot to mention, is that January is when manufacturers are hit with the 1st yearly price increase, so January can often have large cpi increased I'd like to think.
It is seasonally adjusted.
Electricity and natural gas where I live in WA state is negotiated between a state commission and the power companies for a 2 year period and usually the price changes on January 1st so not surprised to see some CPI action, even though I only know how WA state works. I guess we can go back and look at 2023 data, if electricity primarily changed in the January CPI?
Hi Sasha, what's your current thoughts on Tesla. I've been continually buying shares on the way down but interested to hear your thoughts?
Sascha - in the UK minimum wages goes up nearly 10% in April. Do you think this will cause UK inflation to go up significantly again as businesses pass this labour cost on?
How could it not push up inflation. Businesses have to pay 10% more, prices and services rise 10% more to cover the costs.
that would only be true if the retail price was 100% wages you need to knock off vat transport raw materials energy rents executive and managerial wages dividends taxes and all the other costs that makeup the retail price @@lzl3lol
Not just that, the salary threshold for skilled worker VISA sponsorships are increasing by 40%.
The stock market doesnt need a reason to drop. This is just a well timed excuse. That and the 2nd half of February often shows weakness and s&p has had 14 green weeks in the last 15. Its not even 2% down. Not a crash and not much of a pullback so far.
So far
Crash and so far can you see your error
Good language point - reason and excuse are two different things and it is important to separate if you can.
February, June and September are generally weak months for the Nasdaq. A pullback of 8-10% is well expected by investors who have actually some experience in the market. The market tends to have around 2 to 3 pullbacks of 10% a year and one correction of up to 20% every 3 years. It's how the market works. The news are useless 99% of the times. Before Corona hit no-one knew what was going to happen(of course). Before 2022 all the news were positive, and that got many people buying at the top right before the 2022 bear market, many lost all their savings in that period, and the most ambitious bought crypto. They all lost everything, including some of my friends. When the news are too positive, that's a concern. But when these useless fund managers talk non sense on the news trying to predict some crash, I know they are full of it. That is probably a good time to build up your position.
Whoever freaks out because the market has dropped 2% or 3% should in my opinion grow some balls or just put their money in a saving account because they clearly have no idea of what's going on.
On a positive note, @SashaYanshin, I love your work, you and Damien, you guys are simply brilliant :) You should bring also Gary Stevenson on-board, before he looses his plot to fame LOL
About as scary as a cloudy day. Fed wasn't going to cut in March and one report isn't enough to change the dial for May cuts so it's really nothing. Buying up more crypto,2024/25 bull run will take many by surprise.
great again
A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.
Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a dependable trading system that can lead to successful outcomes. Personally, I've been working with a financial advisor for about a year now. Starting with less than $200K and I'm now just $19,000 away from making half a million in profit
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
When ‘Laura Grace Abels ’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The base effect, especially on energy, is not going to do the numbers any favors beyond May. I don't see us getting up crazy high, at least reported by CPI, again, but I could see it compounding at 3% or above, going on 34 months now, and that's 50% > the Fed's target. If fiscal policy proves unsustainable, likely, I think a quick flip to deflation is the bigger risk and then from there we get back into QE and big inflation talks again.
If anyone is interested, the CPI index of the United States which goes back to 1947, has only seen one period where inflation has risen as quickly over 4 years as the recent spike and that was the late 70’s. The only time the Index actually fell since records began was after the financial crash of 2008
Bought an NVDA call on the dip, it came straight back up ;) Anyone who can trade NVDA can eat well.
How to trade NVIDIA: Literally just buy it.
OMG some stocks are at prices not seen since Friday!
Lol
So many companies put prices up in January every year so im not surprised it has gone up month on month
Yep, nice discount.
The video finished abruptly after 8:32 minutes. When will part II be uploaded so that we can see if it makes more sense than what he was trying to say in this video?
He does that for dramatic effect
Could the food prices be up affected by the series of frigid weather you think?
Oh no more flames!!
Sorry… Did you say more flames? Ok. More flames it is. 🔥
Outside the Mag 7 there are cheap stocks out there. I'm getting some nice dividends in PEY, WDS, PBR.A, EC. Nat Gas is way down, will be reflected in inflation figures with the lag.
Yes, there’s a long-term fundamental problem with oil look at the monthly chart it was cooling off for one year now it’s time for the counter trend rally in the .04 you saw in core. CPI is only the beginning buckle up Oil is going to 115 this year
Im new to all this stock investing thing.. should i just hold onto to them and buy while theyre in red or just sell shares
Can you do a video on which stocks you feel are most primed for success in this current market. Thanks
You ask too much. Ask me.
Hope this isn't cope but the stock market is pricing in previously high rate of inflation. I've been all in long the dollar against the British pound for a while now. I'm imagining a shock deflationary print in the future as they start cutting rates which will send the market to lower lows compared to 2022 then QE begins.
they needed to pull back the index, it was going crazy up and upper. Good chance to buy the dip.
It looks like we could hit a recession again (a proper one at least, not the technical variant)
not this year. maybe last half of 25 or in 26
Inflation never went away :)
Inflation is a measurement of greed statistic, so it never will.
That's because inflation is the creation of currency. Interest rate rises will not cure price rises it simply destroys demand.
I really appreciate your insight. But how do explain that the crash has not happened yet. Is it simply that the crash is being stretched out after experience after the last “hard” crash? Or is it just luck?
Sasha, you think we could see a rise in interest rates maybe?
Didn’t react that bad seeing strong support, recovering well actually
Food has never come down. I don’t care what data you have. The food at the grocery stores is absolutely insane.
Inflation coming down doesn't mean prices come down. It just means prices go up slower. So if for example Food inflation was at 4% and came down to 3%, that means that prices have increased 3% this year instead of 4%. Still an increase, but the increase is less than before.
@@terraslayer6042Thats very true we need deflation for food prices coming down
You're paying for grocery store and supply chain, not the food. It all runs on debt.
The fire! The downward arrows! Aaaaaaahhhh!! Lol 😂
So we might have to wait a little longer for rate cuts. Big deal, doesn’t mean we need to sell off everything.
Whaaaat? You’re not panic selling because inflation is at 3.1%?! How dare you?!
@@SashaYanshin call me a maverick lol
@@SashaYanshinthe sarcasm in this conversation. Wooshed over my head for couple of seconds there 😂
Loved your content sir.
Very informative.
Hi Sasha, did you really think after all the printing, debt added, fiscal expansion, inverted yield curve, we were going to see fed cuts? The only reason the fed cut is because something breaks.
Hey Sasha, I just watched your video and I must say that it was really informative and well-made. I was wondering if I could help you edit your highly engaging videos and thumbnails which will help your video to reach to a wider audience and increase your subscribers and viewers.
In my lifetime there have been 8 financial crisiseseseses, including ones particular to where I live. I am 30.
You must have slept through the other 10!
It's a permacrisis
@@SashaYanshin good thing I don't live in the UK.
sasha could you also dig in why is Yelen so panicking about debt ceiling? and how it will affect all this
Just today got a letter from HSBC that my credit card interest rate on purchases is raised by 5 % to 24.99% from March 2024. I was thinking Interest rates will go down...
Credit Card interest rates have nothing to do with Central bank interest rates.
That elnino will for sure keep oil prices down dest year!.
Im confused sasha wasnt your video yesterday about how there wasnt going to be a crash ?
2/3 is inputed rent, a seasonally adjusted made up number. MSM indulging in pop psycholgy of why share go up today and might go down tomorrow. Real economy shedding jobs by the bucket. Maybe some see lower earnings, other don't. The only certainty is passive investing goes on and on, representing over 50% of share flows. It will be fun when at some point (who knows when not) everyone rushes to the exits...
cpi will tick up as shrinkflation can only go on so long and its not shown in the numbers
Never miss a good opportunity to panic!
Nvidia and SMCI bucking the trend, the ai hype is insane
then you should know it's a good opportunity to make some green@@ianc5549
Uptrend isn't parabolic most of the time and downtrend the same way. I'm thinking this was expected because all the inflation numbers would be from the holiday months. As long as interest rates stay up, it'll start dropping but this news only means Feds most likely will keep interest rates where it's at.
I assume Feds knows what is really going on and don't plan on cutting till next year. If they want 2%, it has to be by the holidays and I don't see that happening.
It's a very slow downward trend. I love the work you put into this.
Hi all
Thanks Sasha, sold everything switched to crypto.
😂😱
@@SashaYanshinloooool
Not quite the fire sale we were looking for… let’s keep waiting…
Yep as said before, Sasha doesn't believe a crash is coming in 2024. Buy whenever you see a discount he says
Please lay the facts with your statement above. I'm curious to see if you really have something to back this up or it is just noise.
Of course there will be a crash. We have 98-99% of stocks mostly in a bear market (slowly trending down) and an enormous AI bubble in a small number of stocks that have pumped the market through the roof. Two thoughts - why did ARM double in value in the last 3 days? (Hint: they said “AI”). NVDA is now worth more than the entire Chinese market ($1.75tn with forward revenues of about $40-$50bn). All bubbles eventually resolve. What will happen then will be truly catastrophic this time - because so many people are now in index funds when the panic starts to get out of the market (really the AI bubble collapse) all the good stocks will be taken down with them. Wait and see. Ask yourself why is Buffett sitting on the sidelines in Treasuries at the moment? Hint: because there are going to be some once in a lifetime bargains on sale when this happens.
So your saying that if I just keep on buying like always I'll get an even better deal? Sweet. What data do you have to back this up?@@nixer65
@@nixer65 If anything we'll have a mini-crash, more like a blip like we did in August 2011 when the US got downgraded with the credit rating and Obummer couldn't make an announcement on Friday about the issue and instead he waited until Tuesday to say sht. Fk him I'm still mad about his slow response to that. When we see a lot of home foreclosures or loan defaults and bankruptcies either commercial side or other will hurt US revenue next year then we can expect a steep crash like in 2008. We're somewhat okay right now.
@@nixer65 Good job that's largely irrelevant to index fund investors with a longer investment timeline. I'll buy every month regardless of price. I've another 25 years or so left in the market so I'm hoping for some good sales.
Surely shelter costs are hugely influenced by mortgage interest rates. Prices down 10% doesn't offset financing costs up 50% does it!
Does anything in finance (outside of idiotically first order modelling) ever progress in a smooth line?
No reason for shitting the bed over one datapoint.
Glad the US stock market has come down; now I can buy in when it bottoms...
Sure because you know exactly when it will bottom! 🤣🤣🤦♂️
Uhh what?
oopsie doopsie looks like she's back up and roaring already, tough luck
How did that go do you? Lovely rebound 😀
have been renting for 8 years and never seen a drop or even same rate, only has been going up.
Went to honda dealer yesterday to get few plastic screws, dealer charged 5.46/screw+tax, I needed 6, total $35.55. Online you can buy same screws for 7.05 for a pack of 6.
Wil s&p 500 drop further this year ?.
the market will not sell off for 1 day only . nasdaq will drop to 14500 by march. then the next cpi report in march will send it down further. when the fed applies it's rate cuts in october , only then will the markets start to recover. sell everything and rebalance your 401k to 100% stable value fund so you don't lose money . then rebalance at the end of this market downturn. will this be a repeat of 2022, when the markets sold off for an entire year? i hope not.
Yesterday's video you only mentioned deflation?
Time to buy!
😂😂😂😂
😅😅😅😅
Told you so !
@@tonyh1460 it’s pretty much flat since then lol
The analysts never get it right. No sweat.
Inflation never went away. Those who buy things at the grocery store have known better all along. The only thing that changed was how much they cooked the books. For some reason they want us to see more realistic (but not yet fully honest) numbers today. This is so they won't lower the Fed loan rate. Why is this important? The Fed needs to sell about 8.9 Trillion dollars in Federal bonds at a High cost. They can only make those bonds look appealing if loan interest rates remain high. Once the banks start lowering rates, those bonds will become much less appealing with lower offer rates.
No market crash!
Workers getting >3% wage increases each year. Wont see 2% inflation for awhile
Crash and burn, I don't want to hear ATH for the next 2 years. My puts printed bigly today
it is crazy that a tiny change in inflation drops stock prices like this. BTW what kind of an investor would sell stocks on days like this? I am sure many of us (including me) were actually buying this dip today but stocks still continued to drop. so someone was actively selling... are funds selling stocks and buying treasuries/bonds for rebalancing on days like this? it is the only explanation I can think about as no long term investor would sell due to such a petty reason
The market has been going up for quite awhile. I would guess a lot of call options piled up and the market maker needed to make them worthless ASAP.
Its fooked !!
Higher than expectations
Inflation has to come down because if people have no money, they will reduce prices.
Own brands are actually cheap, so other companies must be able to drop prices.
And if there are fewer people, because more people are - unexpectedly - dying due to unknown, ie global warming/racism causes - then, there will be less demand, which will reduce inflation. And this is in a permanent sense, since also the birth rate is declining for the same (unknown/global warming/racism) reasons.
Stop making me depressed Sasha!!!
Long term investments over short term gains.. glad I’m not a day trader
I’m never sure if you’re taking about the UK specifically or not
i dont really think it's crashing. Would take another 10 days of the same for this to even be considered a pullback.
*food moved up just 0.6? huh... not my food... that would be a dream to "just" be at 0.6 increase*
My estimate on the prices I pay is inflation is around 12%
The loaves of bread I eat, have gone up 100% what used to be 399 is 799. We used to be five dollars is eight dollars that's inflation they need to count food because it's consumed by people.
Look at cattle and hog futures. The grains are about to bottom too. Food will not go down. Housing will not go down.
Except housing inflation is going down in every measure except CPI Shelter.
Super core is 5.5% up from 3%. That’s not good though is it. America is pumping debt in to the market and the US gov is near a debt doom loop with a racing deficit. The US stock market is in an AI bubble
Oil prices are likely to rise a lot this year even though demand might be soft and the Red Sea situation doesn't look likely to go away anytime soon. All inflationary.
Elnino.
Buying long term holds only. If they dip, I’m adding shares
Industrial metals
Bulk transportation
Energy
Pharma
Chips
Big tech
Corporations are still having to renew their debt instruments at these higher rates. Perhaps another reason the FAANGS rose is because they are free of debt rather than just AI branding?
Funny last video Sasha was ranting how the Fed had no clue and should be cutting interest rates.
Was thinking the exact same thing. The sarcastic tone calling the Fed morons and how even a trained money could read the data completely disappeared in this one. Must have eaten a bit of humble pie before he started recording.
He had more of this. "Quality research".
There is the internal economy and the external economy. Assess both of them and work on yourself. You can always make money as long as one is willing to adapt to the new climate. I recommend checking Robert Kiyosaki 😊.
I don’t know what’s going on 🤷🏼♀️ but the food prices still rising at least in NY same for housing ( buying or renting) Absolutely can’t see the rates cut in the near future if they do it inflation will go to the moon.
red is a better color than green anyway
11th March
Predictable over-reaction by the markets for an actual fall in inflation. Buy this dip, sell it in 2 weeks time.
I love the market. It’s more volatile than a hormonal teenager.
I don't understand the rise in food prices, at all...
My father is a farmer in EU. Grain prices are in a 40-60% deflation. They reached pre pandemic levels, yet food on shelves is literally unchanged. Even bread is at an all time high.
What drives this market? Are there bigger forces that manipulate it?
Bullwhip effect
I feel like throwing myself out of the window. My american funds are all down by 1.6% waaaah!! Shall i just sell the lot??