The AI Stock Market Crash That No One Saw Coming

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  • Опубликовано: 19 фев 2024
  • AI stocks have gone up in a straight line in 2023 and 2024 and it's all beginning to look suspiciously like a bubble.
    A small number of stocks are going up hundreds of percent in a matter of weeks or months while the rest of the stock market is going nowhere.
    Are we about to see a big stock market crash or is this time going to be different?
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Комментарии • 428

  • @Jamesbrown1126
    @Jamesbrown1126 Месяц назад +233

    AI Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.

    • @Greghilton3
      @Greghilton3 Месяц назад +6

      you’re right! The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner

    • @Quason788
      @Quason788 Месяц назад +4

      I have maintained contact with a financial advisor from the beginning of my business. Understanding the culture of today The difficult part of investing in trending stocks is figuring out when to buy and when to sell. My advisor selects entry and exit orders for my portfolio, which has increased in value by over $900k in just over a year.

    • @Elkemartin213
      @Elkemartin213 Месяц назад +4

      Mind if I ask you recommend this particular professional you use their service? i have quite a lot of marketing problems

    • @Quason788
      @Quason788 Месяц назад +4

      Her name is “Amber Dawn Brummit” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

    • @Elkemartin213
      @Elkemartin213 Месяц назад +5

      Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

  • @colixo5731
    @colixo5731 2 месяца назад +27

    A good rule of thumb I've heard for world changing technology or developments is that people tend to significantly over estimate their impact in the short term and significantly under estimate their impact in the long term

    • @f4ust85
      @f4ust85 2 месяца назад +1

      I think the second part is expendable. Is anyone underestimating the longterm impact? No, everyone is talking about Artificial General Intelligence and Universal Basic Income already, is an absolute frenzy.

    • @colixo5731
      @colixo5731 2 месяца назад +2

      @f4ust85
      People are talking about it, yes, but that doesn't mean a huge amount. People were talking about the Internet, indeed there was an internet bubble and subsequent crash (the short term over estimation bit).
      And now everyone is physically indistinguishable from their smartphones.

    • @f4ust85
      @f4ust85 2 месяца назад +1

      @@colixo5731 I am just saying this popular reversal sounds witty but its largely nonsensical because you cannot overestimate something on a short-term basis without seeing it as important in the future. You practically cant hold both these positions at once, nobody does. People simply greatly overestimate how fast and radically technology can be implemented. Another thing is commercial viability: many things are brilliant but simply not profitable or easy to market and eventually die off. We are not always using the best technology available when its not in the interest of corporations and their infrastructure.

    • @colixo5731
      @colixo5731 2 месяца назад +3

      @f4ust85
      I think you may be missing the point a little. It's over-estimate the impact that it will have IN the short term. That is, assume that everyone and everything will be all over it immediately, and it will lead to short-term dividends/investment returns (which causes endless news cycles and inevitable investment bubbles)
      The long-term bit refers to the fact that once the hype dies down, the actual effect over the course of years is fundamentally transformative in a way that people are unable to countenance or even estimate initially. In the internet example, that would be smartphones, the commoditisation of data, A.I., the move to paperless currency, and stuff we haven't thought of yet.

  • @derekk2708
    @derekk2708 2 месяца назад +1

    Great Video. Very informative. Thanks for uploading. ; )

  • @cvrart
    @cvrart 2 месяца назад +3

    Yep, this is pretty much exactly the way I see the current situation. Well elucidated.

  • @davidcunningham2074
    @davidcunningham2074 2 месяца назад +1

    good to see someone seriously thinking this through.

  • @AdrianTap
    @AdrianTap 2 месяца назад

    As always. Cold&Crisp with data. Eye opening video.

  • @stevehensonuk
    @stevehensonuk 2 месяца назад +41

    Damn....I was lucky enough to work in that sector (Nortel) between 1999 and 2003. During the spring/summer of 2000 colleagues were taking out bank loans to buy stock in Nortel, Lucent, Cisco and Alcatel. It really did not end well. Like you say things sure do look similar!

    • @repomannv
      @repomannv 2 месяца назад +3

      I was at Sun Microsystems during the same period...stock went from 200 down to 5. Fun times. When all the tech nerds things can't go down, they usually crash at exactly that time.

    • @stephenhookings1985
      @stephenhookings1985 2 месяца назад +3

      SUN appeared to be an innovative company. Shame that the less creative companies win out in the long run.

    • @thecount3965
      @thecount3965 2 месяца назад

      No one is taking out loans and doing that atm. Everyone is fearful and calling for a crash and calling it a bubble because they are sidelined

    • @stevekowalski7936
      @stevekowalski7936 2 месяца назад

      They are, Cisco was the greatest thing, now all these stink buyers have no idea what Cisco is

  • @timblagdon103
    @timblagdon103 2 месяца назад +7

    I bought to NVDIA months ago after hearing about it here so thanks Sasha!

  • @eunicef1
    @eunicef1 2 месяца назад +1

    Great vid, thanks. S&P still for me for these very reasons.

  • @lesdickson9765
    @lesdickson9765 2 месяца назад +79

    A crash? If NVIDIA post record earnings again (which I feel like they will), the AI bubble may continue blowing up. If they miss, then maybe a ‘crash’ will happen but its earnings miss will have ripple effects across the tech sector.
    Also, Sora is going to be as disruptive as ChatGPT in regards to anything related to video - the movie (and wider entertainment) industry could be upended.
    Edit: NVIDIA beat on earnings (which I hoped for).

    • @archvaldor
      @archvaldor 2 месяца назад +3

      "Also, Sora is going to be as disruptive as ChatGPT" You say that but there seems to be comparatively little going on with chatgpt when you take all the hype and bs. True and value its actual utility-not easy.

    • @4dscdriver
      @4dscdriver 2 месяца назад +4

      The last few quarters nvda sold off after having good earnings. I don't see anything different here.

    • @XORTION
      @XORTION 2 месяца назад +2

      arm is flying, get involved

    • @lewisstretch
      @lewisstretch 2 месяца назад +1

      Be careful. We live in the upside down where good news is bad news and bad news is good news. We have seen this repeatedly.

    • @mattx4253
      @mattx4253 2 месяца назад +3

      Sora is basically fake. They found the shutterstock stock video and images they based it on

  • @ThoughtLineQuotes
    @ThoughtLineQuotes 2 месяца назад

    Thanks for nice video

  • @kquat7899
    @kquat7899 2 месяца назад +1

    just keep a close eye on the charts.

  • @MilesLangley
    @MilesLangley 2 месяца назад +36

    This time it’s different

    • @gormenfreeman499
      @gormenfreeman499 2 месяца назад +3

      We haven't tried real stock market yet.

    • @jefegamez6284
      @jefegamez6284 2 месяца назад +6

      Literally said in every bubble before it popped

  • @stansheppard8929
    @stansheppard8929 2 месяца назад +1

    Appreciate this is an issue for tech indexes or AI/tech weighted bespoke portfolios.
    I guess the point (or one of them at least) of buying an index is that we buy the other 493 at a discount while they are negative and balance out any crash in one niche or sector.

  • @jefegamez6284
    @jefegamez6284 2 месяца назад +2

    That why I DCA into VT etf

  • @UC6h-h7xIZPdaVBlAaY5hQIg
    @UC6h-h7xIZPdaVBlAaY5hQIg 2 месяца назад +2

    Great comparison with Cisco.

    • @autistic-man-
      @autistic-man- 2 месяца назад

      No it's not. Nvidia is profitable, and has a profit margin of 77%

  • @P2wpio9143
    @P2wpio9143 2 месяца назад +2

    And then when stock is over heated already, big banks like JPM or Gold issue a price target just above a current price a few weeks before earnings so investors go full berserk mode and starting loading more of over priced stock, create enormous liquidity that bank uses to exit their positions. And then comes the correction...

  • @StrangerOnTheWeb
    @StrangerOnTheWeb 2 месяца назад +14

    Personally a dip before earnings is a good sign, I believe if the report is good tomorrow then the pump will resume

  • @cgrieser
    @cgrieser 2 месяца назад +36

    Your monologues are fire. Literal LOL over here. 🔥

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад +5

      Thank you!!

    • @aaron6806
      @aaron6806 2 месяца назад +1

      Seconded. I'm enjoying being poor. Missed the boat, not going to leap from the dock.

  • @Neil_KnowsNoKungFu
    @Neil_KnowsNoKungFu 2 месяца назад +4

    Agree with the point that msft ect wont be buying cards constantly and at some point there will be a reality check. But for the cisco/nvda comparison is this really 2000? i think its 95 or 96. They havvent even cut rates yet. There will be bumps, maybe even crashes, but this is just the start.

  • @williampmcd8548
    @williampmcd8548 2 месяца назад +1

    Thank you. Wonder if you can comment, what is the basis for the AI output? With people, I suggest, truth is the basis for sincere opinion, and perhaps all the mockery as well.
    As when a person "vents" their frustration, isn't that sincere opinion honest also? For this to be so then truth is the basis. Can we confirm or refute this with AI tech?

  • @Chris-ty7fw
    @Chris-ty7fw 2 месяца назад +2

    (I don't own any NVidea stock ..)
    Have you seen the new text to video it's insane? There could be more run in AI yet. There does seem to be actual use of AI, it's a new tech I actually use.
    One thing that could lower the requirement is the cryptos that share cards(compute) out, gamers can rent out their GPUs in the way that used to work with crypto mining.

  • @user-hp9eg3gf6s
    @user-hp9eg3gf6s 2 месяца назад +1

    Bubbles always happen with new things. The only people that gain are those that had the stock before the bubble Or those that invest after the bubble where real profits and growth happens. And my index funds have less exposure. 80% FTSE All world, 20% small cap value weighted in US and Europe. I do have disproportional exposure to US regional banks though that could also crush.

  • @darren875
    @darren875 2 месяца назад +2

    What's your thoughts on the new way the o n s are calculating excess deaths would love your thoughts.

  • @futureHR2025
    @futureHR2025 2 месяца назад +2

    Interesting how the market sentiment is going low while I am buying stocks at a discount compared to 24 months from now. 💪🏼

  • @darren875
    @darren875 2 месяца назад

    What's your thoughts on the changes to the o n s calculation on excess deat@s

  • @tekboi1984
    @tekboi1984 2 месяца назад +3

    It's crazy that I totally called it but never knew it would have this effect. 2-3 years ago when all the graphics cards were being used to create bitcoin/eth mining farms. I heard that some mining farms in North Dakota were running on electricity from generators. Those generators were
    burning natural gas from the land that the server was built on. I went on a whole rant that we were knowingly or unknowingly setting up the infrastructure for AI to run without humans. I think I was mainly pissed off that I couldn't find a video card for my gaming pc though lol:

  • @TheMafuri
    @TheMafuri 2 месяца назад +1

    It's hard to say if it's a bubble, but it may become.

  • @daviddoink872
    @daviddoink872 2 месяца назад +1

    it would be interesting to know what proportion of Mag 7 revenues is Gov related

  • @Pirake123
    @Pirake123 2 месяца назад

    Factor investing to hedge for different sectors seems the way to go

  • @stevekowalski7936
    @stevekowalski7936 2 месяца назад +1

    Mad respect, anyone who brings up Cisco I have made respect, Cisco was the first stock I remember constantly talking about how great it is...

  • @AT16
    @AT16 2 месяца назад +11

    I saw Sasha coming 🎉

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад +5

      Did you now?! 👀

    • @AT16
      @AT16 2 месяца назад +1

      @@SashaYanshin 😬😂

    • @VermaFinance
      @VermaFinance 2 месяца назад +1

      Ayo

  • @SaadonAksah
    @SaadonAksah 2 месяца назад

    Just be prepared then! 😱

  • @orangedrone
    @orangedrone 2 месяца назад +7

    We all knew it was coming. Just wasn't 100% on the when.

  • @quixomega
    @quixomega 2 месяца назад +10

    I called this when this started, the expectations are totally detached from reality.

    • @jefegamez6284
      @jefegamez6284 2 месяца назад +2

      Yeah it’s scary out there. It makes me not want to invest and just put it in savings, but I just DCA into VT

    • @jace8861
      @jace8861 2 месяца назад +1

      Have you seen what they are able to do with SORA from Open AI now. What do you think?

    • @FunFunFun8888
      @FunFunFun8888 2 месяца назад

      A big Nvidia crash coming and nobody buying Nvidia until next year unless they are stupid.

  • @mitesh8522
    @mitesh8522 2 месяца назад +2

    I enjoy Sasha's videos and like all of us, he has strengths and weaknesses. His strength is putting together valuations/fundamental analysis, and analysis of financial statements and economic data. Unfortunately, he doesn't believe in technical analysis which I've found is also an important part of stock picking. There's very few times when we get Nvidia-type events (Tesla being another) and if you're not looking at indicators of momentum, and only looking at DCF and the like, you'll be sitting on the sidelines whilst other get their 150%+ returns. Yes, we know it could crash at any time which is why it's important to keep a close eye on things to determine when to sell. That's not a reason to avoid getting in.

  • @Del_987
    @Del_987 2 месяца назад +15

    I think there's one more leg up. Big ouchie coming in late-March to mid-June. I am mostly pulling this out of my ass but it's as good as any analyst.

  • @jamesmulrooney3309
    @jamesmulrooney3309 2 месяца назад +2

    interest rates are staying between 5-3.5% over the next 5 years is great news for money savers or wealthy individuals and bad news for mortgage holders and people with overdrafts or loans.

  • @geolykos
    @geolykos 2 месяца назад +1

    Very very good analogy with Cisco. I agree that this is a hype and FOMO investing until it isn't.
    Their valuation is not as crazy as Tesla's was 3 years ago though. I think Nvidia stock will eventually crash but not nearly as bad as Cisco did.

  • @bigtalljosh
    @bigtalljosh 2 месяца назад +9

    I think nvidia have massive headroom yet. Autonomous vehicles, home AI, game consoles, mobile AI, IoT AI, farming equipment, war, space exploration…

    • @MrRaisin56
      @MrRaisin56 2 месяца назад

      maybe in the next few decades, your thinking is along the same lines as what people were saying for Tesla and look what happened to that...

    • @bigtalljosh
      @bigtalljosh 2 месяца назад

      I think the difference here is I’ve seen AI come and take over my industry in 18 months. If you’re not using an assistant in coding you’re in the Stone Age. The pace of change is crazy. AI can be applied to everything, every professional, it’ll be everywhere. And to power it all you’re gonna need compute.

  • @ominollo
    @ominollo 2 месяца назад

    Thanks for being a voice of sanity in these crazy times 👍
    Given the crazy guidance for 2024 I expect NVIDIA can still go up significantly in the next months before eventually crashing down for the reasons you mentioned

  • @RetireandGo
    @RetireandGo 2 месяца назад +6

    I love this pull back
    I’m adding nvidia and amd
    Please drop more
    Slow add
    Thank you !

    • @travismartinson1813
      @travismartinson1813 2 месяца назад

      Have you seen the weekly chart? This is just a blip right now and the dip has just begun. When it gets around 581 I'll buy the dip and get more shares.

    • @brunoheggli2888
      @brunoheggli2888 2 месяца назад

      How about Canada Railway stocks?

  • @eng80425
    @eng80425 2 месяца назад +1

    exuberant but not sure if it is all backed by practical applications

  • @dfmillard
    @dfmillard 2 месяца назад +1

    Do a shot every time Sasha posts a video with fire in the thumbnail and/or ‘CRASH’ in the heading

  • @friendscallmeap
    @friendscallmeap 2 месяца назад +1

    Great points; a little counter-point, given the high interest rates (given the curvature it is likely cuts come June?) the slow-growth businesses are discounted, if SP500 would gain 27% from AI Boom, but printed 23% overall, is it fine to assume that the rest of the index (everything with the exception of AI) contributed -4%. If they will stop being discounted, perhaps the risk will become less concentrated and keep SP500 on the upward trajectory

  • @Trifvas
    @Trifvas 2 месяца назад

    Take a look at the new Groq chips

  • @schumanhuman
    @schumanhuman 2 месяца назад +1

    Everyone surely saw this coming given how markets wobble at every quarterly earnings. Sold NVID befefore today's markets opened, doubt earnings will be enough to exceed expectations so another pullback but will look to buy the dip over next few days. NVID can still double from here over the next 2 years credit will keep those P/E ratios heading higher until the housing market busts et 2026/7. Crypto will take the biggest % gains though.

  • @FreaksSpeaks
    @FreaksSpeaks 2 месяца назад +1

    It is not just AI almost all the Nasdaq companies are too way too expensive.🎉

  • @JonathanSwiftUK
    @JonathanSwiftUK 2 месяца назад +2

    It takes a while for the people who get incredibly excited about shiny new things to realise the promises made in hast won't materialise. Sure we'll get something useful, but solid reality will bring people back down to earth with a bump. Too many speculate wildly and whilst we need dreamers we have to remain level-headed. I never fell for the hype, not for a second, seen it all before. Besides, I asked Alexa and she said it was all rubbish :-P

  • @dxd42
    @dxd42 2 месяца назад +3

    This bubble will burst ...
    1 - IA needs huge investment, what company will invest in new tech, in a moment of high interest hates?
    2 - IA is not so simply to implement, you need to train IA for months to really begin to get some results, yet companies cannot trust 100% in the results from IA.
    3 - Generative IA is a nich, it will take years to fully integrate our lives. Let's be sincere, do you like to talk with a human attendant or IA?
    4 - IA chips are not so complicated, AMD and Intel have parallel processing chips too. Nvidia value comes from the CUDA architecture... But, I bet we'll have open source models and architecture in the future... And, as we have Linux shining in the servers and data centers, these open source models will bite Nvidia market.

  • @Professional_Youtube_Commenter
    @Professional_Youtube_Commenter 2 месяца назад +3

    i thought stock market ws supposed to reflect the value of the company but it seems that people just speculating on where the price is going to be and they are on a buying frenzy. I can't understand why a tesla stock is worth more than an established car brand

  • @l0v3nul
    @l0v3nul 2 месяца назад +3

    Sasha we love you, its ok that you screwed up with Palantir...happens to everyone

  • @Loundsify
    @Loundsify 2 месяца назад +4

    The AI bubble is insane. When it goes it's gonna drag a lot of shit down.

  • @almabe7608
    @almabe7608 2 месяца назад

    Lol 😀 bratan, perfect, just perfect. 💁‍♂️

  • @Lolatyou332
    @Lolatyou332 2 месяца назад +1

    Regarding AI:
    Yes you need GPUs but if the models become more efficient over time it could lower the actual processing requirements.
    AI will change the future 100%, I'm just not sure buying exclusively Nvidia is going to be the answer to capitalize on all of it.
    Hopefully the general US market will just continue to massively expand at larger rates due to efficiencies from AI.

  • @mitesh8522
    @mitesh8522 2 месяца назад +1

    It's been a while since you've talked about your own positions. I recall you have large holdings in Tesla and Pinterest. Are you still bullish on these?

  • @Gotdam
    @Gotdam 2 месяца назад

    I saw it coming and bought puts way too early

  • @Yoyoy08
    @Yoyoy08 2 месяца назад +2

    The crash usually comes when the real hype at the top..thats how they get you

  • @gianlucapagnoni283
    @gianlucapagnoni283 2 месяца назад +1

    NVIDIA earning report looks like a gamble now: I feel lots of investors will sell and cash the profits this afternoon and price might fall even if they are reporting exceptional earnings...

  • @mmartin4978
    @mmartin4978 2 месяца назад +3

    The sh*t to fan ratio comes in to play

  • @brunoheggli2888
    @brunoheggli2888 2 месяца назад

    I dont know!

  • @autistic-man-
    @autistic-man- 2 месяца назад +2

    hit $820 today

  • @miri9600
    @miri9600 2 месяца назад +5

    NVDA and AMD are most likely heavily overvalued, but MSFT, AMZN...etc not that much and will benefit the most in long term.

    • @robymaru03
      @robymaru03 2 месяца назад

      Or they might be digging their own grave, they're hyping the stock to lure in small and individual investors, but most of them are already broke, they might end up holding their own bag.

  • @affegorilla1299
    @affegorilla1299 2 месяца назад +4

    I only see a healthy pullback on nvda today. Where is the crash? I hope it drops more after earnings tomorrow!

    • @4dscdriver
      @4dscdriver 2 месяца назад

      I want to see it fill the big gap from last year.

  • @typhusfever2262
    @typhusfever2262 2 месяца назад

    Rightly or wrongly, I have bought into IITU, which is the S&P 500 tech stocks fund. All the big 7 excluding Tesla are in there, but it diversifies a little more as it includes a lot of none AI firms like Sales Force that are still making a lot of money. I think ARM may be a big hitter in the future. It seems like their chipset has a real chance to make moves on the X86 chipset from Intel. Unfortunately ARM can't be held within an ISA.

    • @waynemay7327
      @waynemay7327 2 месяца назад

      Why can't ARM be held in an ISA?

    • @typhusfever2262
      @typhusfever2262 2 месяца назад

      @waynemay7327 I'm not 100% on the technicalities, but when you buy ARM, you aren't actually buying shares. You're buying securities, and the real shares are held in a trust. And ISA rules are so that you can only hold shares.
      I think it is because ARM chipsets are used a lot in military systems, so it stops foreign takeovers. A national security issue.

    • @waynemay7327
      @waynemay7327 2 месяца назад

      @@typhusfever2262 Thank you for taking the time to reply.

  • @sirrodneyffing1
    @sirrodneyffing1 2 месяца назад

    Simplistic.

  • @andyasia
    @andyasia 2 месяца назад +1

    The maths is a bit, no quite a way off because if Nvidia has a weight of 3.7% but grew 234% then (ceteris paribus) its weight at the beginning of the year would be 3.7/234% = 1.37% or less than half the quoted 3.7%. However, even that is wrong because the weighting would modify and rise throughout the year, as Sacha noted.
    The point is that if the weight and rise impact were halved, to approximate the average throughout 2023, then you'd have a market rise of 23.7% in the S&P and a weighted rise of the magnificent 7 of 27.1% which would leave the 493 remaining stocks with a (27.1-23.7)=3.4% rise, not a negative.

  • @iko3
    @iko3 2 месяца назад +15

    I come for the financial education but stay for the comedy. 😂

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад

      🙏🙏🙏

    • @DJDilemma1
      @DJDilemma1 2 месяца назад +3

      "And this reaction is completely normal"

  • @seanlam3823
    @seanlam3823 2 месяца назад

    The last sentence 😂

  • @azaharlionhart7084
    @azaharlionhart7084 2 месяца назад

    yes.. streets ahead :)

  • @TheMemeAsylum
    @TheMemeAsylum 2 месяца назад

    As the chips get better the die price goes up ai will continue to consume plus Nvidia also has the biggest share of the gaming industry and some crypto still use GPUs untill we reach agi Nvidia will be a profitable company

  • @georgeorwell7291
    @georgeorwell7291 2 месяца назад +2

    What you are saying does not mean those stocks are "overvalued", because the earnings are there. What this says is we need a MegaCap Index.

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад +2

      Question is if you think them earnings that are there are gonna keep being there and growing fast on top.

  • @boyasaka
    @boyasaka 2 месяца назад +5

    Nvidia is down 5 percent today
    And down 2 percent over the last week
    Nasdaq down 1.3 percent down today which is very tech heavy
    And this is a AI crash ??
    I'm confused plz educate me someone

    • @typic_
      @typic_ 2 месяца назад +2

      this is not an AI crash yet, sasha is talking about the effects of one if it does happen (which seems highly likely)

    • @lostinbkk555
      @lostinbkk555 2 месяца назад +3

      @@typic_ Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience

  • @mikelord93
    @mikelord93 2 месяца назад +15

    I get what you're saying Sasha, I really do. I have these discussions with people all the time, and I hate to say the stereotypical ignorant thing, but this time it's different. Ai is solving unsolved math problems Sasha, UNSOLVED MATH PROBLEMS. All predictions about its future capabilities keep being conservative, despite all the hype. We're on the knife's edge with extinction on one side, dystopia on the other and godhood at the end of the edge. I want to believe you, that this is all going to blow over and that this is going to be like all the last big things, changing our life, but being overpromised and underdelivered, but this might actually be one of those times when the stocks do grow at stupid rates of 50%/year. This one might just be the one beyond our imagination and understanding, and it frightens the living shit out of me

    • @MarcoNierop
      @MarcoNierop 2 месяца назад +1

      I am with you! I watched a ton of YT video's about Sora last weekend, this came on top of the Apple Vision Pro stuff that came out.... Scary stuff if all this gets 'normal' and Zuckerberg's Metaverse joke may become a reality after all.

    • @SengerTube
      @SengerTube 2 месяца назад +8

      I recommend you watch the video again. Sasha has not said that Nvidia’s share price may crash because AI is just another blip in technology. He just reminded us that Nvidia is a graphics card manufacturer that saw profits rising because of a surge in demand and that there’s no way to be so sure that the demand will continue to surge at the current pace. It’s quite simple.
      AI; yes, it’s amazing! But Nvidia is a supplier of chips. And if their clients have already bought enough of these or decide to produce their own or buy from a competitor, Nvidia will see their profits fall. AI has come to stay, and I think you’re right in that. The question is: will Nvidia stay?

    • @MarcoNierop
      @MarcoNierop 2 месяца назад

      @@SengerTube Nvidea's growth is in the Server market, not the (retail) graphics cards. H100 and H200 chips later this year are server chips, not GPU's. Servers are needed to train all the different and emerging AI softwares. Each robot will need an AI chip.. If Tesla and Figure are right about their projections, we will need BILLIONS of these!
      After a significant slowdown, the PC/Laptop market is growing again, also catered towards AI tools that Microsoft, Apple, Google etc are developping. So probably the GPU market will grow again as well. But the most Nvidea will grow in the server market.

    • @jace8861
      @jace8861 2 месяца назад

      @@SengerTube The reason why GPU will continue to be needed is because the AI modeld that companies like Open AI are building need thousands of GPUs. If a company only buy a set amount it mean the time it take to get the results (train) is much longer overall it ends up meaning that they fall behind there competitors. The real issue would be for Nvidia is if AMD release better GPU than them and become a leader the the space.

    • @mikelord93
      @mikelord93 2 месяца назад

      @@SengerTube Makes sense, but Ai will benefit all parts of all industries. Now, more than ever, leadership and risk taking will be rewarded, and from what I figure, Nvidia made the right calls at the right time and I don't think they're about to stop any time soon. I think they'll compound their advantage. The only probable way for them to become risk averse is if the hype dies down and chips see a huge overproduction and loss because of it, but if the rate of improvement is as fast as I think it will be, we will see earnings growth beyond our expectations.
      Even if compute for ai becomes orders of magnitude more efficient, lowering demand, this will only ensure more smaller players join the race. If graphics cards are replaced as the preferred hardware solution, I'm sure Nvidia will throw everything they have at producing their own.
      But, who knows? Transition periods like these should be chaotic. Anything could happen

  • @boyasaka
    @boyasaka 2 месяца назад +3

    Yes Sasha was correct again
    AI crashed very heard today ( Thursday 22nd Feb

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад

      Maybe try watching the video before commenting?

    • @boyasaka
      @boyasaka 2 месяца назад

      @@SashaYanshin watched it all last night , thanks

  • @goodnonsensecrew
    @goodnonsensecrew 2 месяца назад

    “Irrational Exuberance”

  • @raymcconnell3839
    @raymcconnell3839 2 месяца назад +1

    and??

  • @MrMcSwiftface
    @MrMcSwiftface 2 месяца назад +2

    I have 21k of NVDA and it’s up 67%, I hope it doesn’t go down that much! I don’t want to sell but this is concerning

    • @kellyja8
      @kellyja8 2 месяца назад

      Hedge with protective puts if this is a concern.

  • @neilmac4730
    @neilmac4730 2 месяца назад +1

    Honestly, Sasha, you should have a million subs. There are way too many hucksters out there spewing crap.
    Thanks for keeping it real.

  • @affegorilla1299
    @affegorilla1299 2 месяца назад +1

    Sasha are we finally moving on FVRR after earnings this week?

  • @PaintrainX
    @PaintrainX 2 месяца назад

    Nvidia really is doing impressively well. But yeah, I have my doubts about the sustainability of this growth. It might slow down sooner than people think. I think we won’t see a crash yet. Personally I have my eye set at selling at $1000.
    As for other Big Tech stocks: their gains are not blindly based on AI imo. Look at Microsoft. Microsoft is very solidly setup. The valuation is a little rich, but they have massive potential in several areas aside from AI. Same goes for Meta. Meta is even pretty fairly valued.
    The big crash will come amongst speculative AI stocks like Palantir and others. They shot up to insane valuations, but didn’t show impressive growth. Let alone that there is a solid plan for their future.

  • @Trading21295
    @Trading21295 2 месяца назад +5

    Hey Sasha I have got a question. I was considering investing in the S&P 500 equal weighted index fund instead of the popular capitalization weighted index since I think that the magnificent 7 stock prices are extremely overvalued right now compared to the rest of the market so getting an equally weighted fund will limit my exposure to those stocks. An example of this in the UK is the SPEX by Invesco or ISPE by ishares. What’s your thoughts on these.

    • @Trading21295
      @Trading21295 2 месяца назад

      I would like to mention though that those funds management fees are higher at around 0.22% instead of VUSA 0.07%

    • @quokkapirquish6825
      @quokkapirquish6825 2 месяца назад

      Sasha won’t give you direct investment advice, for obvious reasons

  • @nikoc3585
    @nikoc3585 2 месяца назад

    Nvidia, lets have a awesome few earnings. Stock split too please!

  • @danunpronounceable8559
    @danunpronounceable8559 2 месяца назад +2

    "using these latest profit numbers Nvidea has a PE ratio of 50", not sure those numbers are quite right. At a market cap of $1.8T and trailing 12 month net profit of $18.9B, you get a PE ratio of 95. Maybe you're assuming 4th quarter net profit will be $18B? But this feels out of the realms of possibility.

    • @derekhoffman818
      @derekhoffman818 2 месяца назад +1

      And then they blew right past those projections ! Lol

    • @danunpronounceable8559
      @danunpronounceable8559 2 месяца назад

      @@derekhoffman818 nope, it was pretty good 4th quarter, net income was $12B, giving p/e of 66 on market cap of $1.97T. Sure, closer to p/e 50 but still massively exuberant - beyond anything that could be considered value.

  • @madsnygaard6444
    @madsnygaard6444 2 месяца назад

    Good points as always and interesting parallel in regards to Cisco. Nvidia is the epicenter of a perfect storm isn't it - it's obviously AI, but as their graphic cards are evidently also integral (with next to no alternatives) for crypto mining rigs as well as the gaming industry. I am having a hard time seeing immediate failure ahead even in spite of the hype - with a 15000+% rise over the last 10 years I guess the company has the pedigree that suggests an ability to stay on top of their game. Obviously there's a limit - but I do think the stock has pontential to cross the 1000$ mark this year... we'll see!

  • @justgeneric2876
    @justgeneric2876 2 месяца назад

    When we say no one saw coming do we mean maverick of wall street and the guy from big short

  • @phesho
    @phesho 2 месяца назад

    We need a new index: S&P7

  • @stoneageman18
    @stoneageman18 2 месяца назад

    If there is one thing I took awwayfrom this video. Its that
    we should all buy NIVIDIA, short squeezes don't stop if you don't stop buying

  • @hanshart1413
    @hanshart1413 2 месяца назад +1

    So is it then not worth to invest in s&p500 at the moment??

    • @StephenRWilliams
      @StephenRWilliams 2 месяца назад +1

      Time in the market beats timing the market.

    • @neilcook1652
      @neilcook1652 2 месяца назад

      S&P yes, specific S&P companies no, and look globally too, diversify and hold.

  • @johnmilton2242
    @johnmilton2242 2 месяца назад

    You know Sasha I have a great deal of respect for your work, your deep dive in UK ecomics is spot on.
    HOWEVER you really, really need to pay more attention to the American side of things before you make videos about it. The 7 companies your talking about are : Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Mircosoft, Apple, Amazon and NVIDA. Of those 7 only 4 remain keeping the stock market up THIS year: Meta, Mircosoft, Amazon and NVIDA. The others have stagnated or gone down.
    NVIDA is valued more than the entire Chinese stock market atm and has been over priced back in July 2023; they are known to be 'creative' with their accounting particularly there orders, non completed reported as profit. Mircosoft used to be NVIDA's top customer due to OPEN AI buying there servers, came out about 3 months ago with its own manufactured AI Chips.
    As you've pointed out the rest of the stock market has been left behind- thats because the US Economy is fucked, utterly fucked- something you really should try to remember the next time you report the US economic figures.

  • @jkosiba228
    @jkosiba228 2 месяца назад +1

    I can’t look at my NVIDIA stocks right now. Don’t want to tempt myself to sell them! They’re going to rocket again I feel

  • @steveno7058
    @steveno7058 2 месяца назад

    AI is cool. But could they PLEASE fix spell check fisrt!!!

  • @Shawhir
    @Shawhir 2 месяца назад +1

    Streets Ahead - Pierce would be proud

  • @livinsite1
    @livinsite1 2 месяца назад

    The trend of smartphone hype is tried with AI. But AI is not as big of an impact compared to the internet or smart phone hype. It does not improve the quality of life for all demographic like the internet or smart phone. But it sure is a valuable improvement along the line of digital. But holding the entire digital market accountable to the ai growth is not fail. This bubble will be burst sooner or later. It will settle down.

    • @ekay4495
      @ekay4495 2 месяца назад

      The usefulness of a.i has just begun to the average person. Soon it will be replacing most non-manual jobs 10 years give or take.

  • @markbrzezinski8889
    @markbrzezinski8889 2 месяца назад +1

    Thanks Sasha.
    I have a bridge to sell.
    What do you think?

  • @jrcp106
    @jrcp106 2 месяца назад

    In the 2000s Cisco's revenue plummeted after the release of the thong song.

    • @SashaYanshin
      @SashaYanshin  2 месяца назад

      Woop! Somebody spotted the joke! 😂

  • @NeroX-nh8se
    @NeroX-nh8se 2 месяца назад

    Oh, so that is why Jensen urged other countries to have sovereign AI... He want to keep the sales going...

  • @eika6814
    @eika6814 2 месяца назад +8

    The only problem with drawing parallels between cisco and nvidia is that at the moment, nvidia products are at an unmatched "state of art" complexity, rather than cisco products at a time, which were popular due to the standardisation and convenience.
    But yeah, nvidia will def. will go down eventually, but i don't think it will have as hard of a crash

    • @mattx4253
      @mattx4253 2 месяца назад +1

      There is nothing special about Nvidia GPUs amd can make just as good and so now can Intel. iBM has even better and Nvidia doesn’t even make them. So foundries will push up costs also

    • @hugevibez
      @hugevibez 2 месяца назад +2

      Well competitors are arriving though. Tenstorrent w Jim Keller, Qualcomm/NUVIA, SambaNova, AMD, Cerebras, graphcore, lightmatter, (and I'm not even mentioning all the hyperscalars that are coming up with their own hardware) are all coming with chips that can match or even beat Nvidia. The future of AI hardware is not GPUs, it's gonna be dedicated accelarators or FPGAs on semicustom SOC designs for those who have pockets deep enough to afford that, and Nvidia does not have an answer to these new technologies.

    • @rtmclean484
      @rtmclean484 2 месяца назад

      @@hugevibez I believe whoever makes the most efficient chips will win out in the AI accelerator wars. Nvidias GPUs are great but they suck down a tonne of power, running thousands of them like Meta and Microsoft are doing will be costing insane amounts on the electric bills. In building server rooms efficient chips and parts is always a big consideration.

  • @arthurworld9768
    @arthurworld9768 2 месяца назад +107

    Is NVIDIA a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I'm tired of these new buys every week, just to make up some assets with low percentage on my $136k portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%.

    • @jamesfriedrich1150
      @jamesfriedrich1150 2 месяца назад +1

      Yes! but still make your own research. And I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. Youre safer that way

    • @VanPelt54u7fcyde57
      @VanPelt54u7fcyde57 2 месяца назад +1

      I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and REITs, my $610k portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 28%.

    • @arthurworld9768
      @arthurworld9768 2 месяца назад

      massive gains! mind sharing details of your adviser pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help fuel my money goal

    • @VanPelt54u7fcyde57
      @VanPelt54u7fcyde57 2 месяца назад

      She goes by ‘’Bella Mia Darmon’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

    • @arthurworld9768
      @arthurworld9768 2 месяца назад

      Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing.

  • @agaragar21
    @agaragar21 2 месяца назад

    Wait ...What ???