Will T-Bills Hit 7% Again Or Go Down: US Debt Ceiling Deal & What It Means For Your T-Bills
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
- A tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling was announced last night by House Speaker McCarthy - that’s what I’ll be talking about in today’s video:
1. What we know about this tentative debt ceiling deal so far
2. What happens next &
3. How this “deal” might impact T-Bill yields this week (e.g. will we see "blip" yields again, how might this affect the 161-day cash management bill, etc)
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#jenniferlammer #bonds #fixedincome
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SOURCES
www.speaker.go...
www.nbcnews.co...
www.cnn.com/20...
www.treasurydi...
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Happy Memorial Day weekend supersavers! 👉 Help keep our one-of-a-kind videos unbiased & sponsorship-free through channel membership - become a super-supersaver member: ruclips.net/channel/UCnexoc6tvesvcCEzZhmI-Agjoin
And apologies to those of you experiencing audio issues - we were trying to get this one out in time for all the folks that were asking about the 161-Day CMB auction on Tuesday!
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This weekend is a time for reflection to those soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice. So, before you start that BBQ and take your first bite into a burger or a rack of ribs, take a moment to think what this holiday is all about.
@@motorheaddave3981 yes, agreed! Please say a prayer for the families of our fallen soldiers. ❤️🤲💙
I love this channel. I'm 71 years old and through the fruits of my labor I became a "super saver". I am one of those lucky souls who bought Series I Bonds back in 2003/4/5. Now we are all fortunate to be able to buy T-bills that are worthy of being bought. I suspect that once an agreement is voted in by Congress the 1 month BIll's yield will drop below 6%. Thanks for your rational advice because there's a lot of NOT very rational advice out there. You are doing savers a huge favor.
Thanks for sharing & for being a part of our community!
I was reading something about how the Treasury will need to auction more debt than usual after the debt ceiling agreement is reached and that could cause rates to go up.
The volume on this video is very low, then high, then low... just FYI
Thanks - we’ll look into it!
My final T-Bill just matured last Thursday from my weekly ladder. Before I get back into them, I'm going to wait until June 14th to see if they are going to pause or even hike the fed interest rate. The T-Bill rates are close enough to HYSA's and CD's as it is (even no penalty CD's which I purchased). If the longer term T-Bill rates really start taking off significantly again, I'll hop back in.
Me too
I found the CUSIP for the most recent 161 day CMB in TD Ameritrade and initiated a buy today. It's my first time buying treasuries at TDA, so I'll have to wait to see the results.
I moved from 4’s every week to 13’s. But still can’t resist throwing 10k a week into a 4. Good rate. Take that Chase🕺
That's what we do as well - leave the ladder & put extra amounts in whenever a good rate pops up
Jennifer, I went on fidelity last night to purchase 13 week t-bills and they had a note that the Treasury is 'considering postponing the auction of 13 and 26 week tbills this week.' I wasn't able to make a purchase. I was shocked!
Here is the announcement from treasury - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/SPL_20230601_1.pdf
They’re available now
I’m curious as to whether rates might go up still on new issues because the Treasury is going to be issuing a larger supply of bills and bonds over the next three months to build cash reserves back up and maybe the demand won’t be there.
I'm new to T Bills. Apart from the risk of the US Government defaulting and not paying us back the interest, why isn't everyone putting a whole chunk of money into the upcoming 4 week T-bill? Sounds like an easy annualized 5-6% return. Any serious downside or something im missing? Many thanks
I'm big into laddering. I'm with you. I just keep reinvesting them since I don't need the money and I needed to do something with it. The FOMC interest rate makes equities a questionable investment for me, so treasuries make a lot of sense to me. It's an easy 5+% annualized.
Jennifer, while those blip rates will go away if the debt ceiling gets resolved, won't Treasury refilling its coffers require them to sell a LOT of T Bills to get to their planned debt issuance targets by the end of the government's fiscal year on September 30th? As long as Powell keeps rates higher for longer and money market funds are tapping the Fed's Reverse Repo facility every night for roughly $2.3 trillion, it seems that T Bills will have to offer good rates in order to sell all that supply.
I had a feeling I was missing out on something! I've been all over new issues in Fidelity and never saw this how did I miss it 🥺
Raising the debt ceiling to $35T... All the other malarki about raising people out of poverty is complete nonsense, this will spell doom for investing in the US.
I was wondering about Tbill prices in the future. Thank you for tantative uploading.
You go Jennifer! I’m the first to listen.
Glad I have funds at Fidelity. Also funds at Vanguard and their fees are very low but the website isn't robust or user friendly.
Hi, Jennifer, I think the sound of the video has some issues, it is hard to hear even at the maximum level.
Noted - we'll check on it for the next one!
Good breakdown. Thanks
I am seeing that the treasury may issue up to 700 billion in treasuries. Can the market absorb that quantity and do you see this liquidity drain effecting equities?
If this happens I expect yields to spike.
I investet into a new issue four week t-bill but should judt kept the cash liquid. Unless you are invensing six figures it dosent make much sense.
We will likely see 7-8% T-bill yield in next cycle, which will be 3-4 years away. Normally, T-bill catches up inflation in the second cycle, provided that inflation persists. The 1970s was such an example.
why is comerica quoting me so much lower t bill yields. How difficult is it to purchase directly through treasury direct?
Thank you for another awesome video!
It's a freeze agreement on spending and a 1% increase spending in 2025.
@Diamond NestEgg CNN announced that the treasury is offering one day CMBs. If they blip, where and how do we buy them?
Will T-Bill Yields Hit 10% | How To Buy Cash Management Bills On Fidelity & E-Trade (Treasury CMBs)
ruclips.net/video/dfc1HRAiMso/видео.html
Jennifer - I loved your reference to pizza at around the 4:10 mark! Can we start to reference interest earned and inflation in terms of pizza dinners? You may be on to something here! 🙂 Kind of reminds me of the Waffle House Index used to reference storm strength. Happy Memorial Day Weekend!
With the recent market run-up, expecting inflation to remain high thus higher interest rates.
Jennifer, your volume is quite low. I have to crank it on my end.
Thanks - we’ll look into it!
Thanks for the info, however; the volume on the audio was all over the place.
Noted
@@DiamondNestEgg ♥
Thanks!
Thank you for this information because I invest in T bills.
Just picked up some 13-week t-bills from Vanguard yesterday. I think they reopened the offer for the 13-week t-bills.
Thanks - I'll share with the community
Great recap! Did you mean your bouncing red arrow to be pointing to the “Ask yield” column, tho, rather than the “bid yield” column in your example of the 6.1 dated secondary offerings at 3:25?
Good catch Greg, you are right!
You guys are so attentive!
Hi, there is something up with your microphone, volume is super low when compared to the debt announcement video.
Noted - thanks
Vanguard reopened the 13 week and 26 week T bill purchases yesterday, May 27. I purchased two 26 week T Bills.
Thanks - I'll post an update in the community section
I Thank You my Teacher....,,, , Why?? last week? Fidelity's posted the expected yield on a 4 week T-bill at less than 5, when it was such */s., I know its just an auction but, there's reality among supersavers.
Please , any video's on how to buy T-bills on secondary market? where the bond prices move ..
Fidelity: ruclips.net/video/kxxP8iHd7bg/видео.html
Schwab: ruclips.net/video/LraR-9pu5No/видео.html
Merrill: ruclips.net/video/8ogAA4BXXeE/видео.html
So we should wait till Tuesday?
Thanks
Can you give advice on where you should put your money for it to grow other than that bank account because I don't want to take any more risk
She gives plenty of informative videos on investing. Do the work and watch them then be your own advisor.
With regard to T-Bills bought and are in my IRA at Vanguard and Schwab. When the 4 week T-Bill matures on May 30th what date is the money returned to my settlement account? Thanks in advance
I don't know the answer to this off the top of my head, but just posted this for you in our member-zone. Hopefully, you'll get a response there.
Check the member-zone - one of our members has an answer for you
Where can I buy short-term T-Bill in the secondary market?
Fidelity: ruclips.net/video/kxxP8iHd7bg/видео.html
Schwab: ruclips.net/video/LraR-9pu5No/видео.html
Merrill: ruclips.net/video/8ogAA4BXXeE/видео.html
Hi Jennifer, On 5/29 I tried to purchase 13 week bill with 5/30 auction date but TreasuryDirect kept sending error messages. I gave up after 4 attempts and didn't receive any confirmations from them, either. To my surprise today my bank informed me about 4 failed withdrawal attempts and my TreasuryDirect account shows 4 orders for the same auction as if they all went through. Have you heard of anything like this?
No - you may want to call TD to find out what happened. I called yesterday and the wait was only two minutes.
@@DiamondNestEgg Will do. 2 minutes wait time is great news! Thank you.
I'm starting to think I need a Fidelity account.. my accountant is gonna be pissed... TD, Schwab, Robinhood, Coinbase, CIT, Marcus/Goldman, Treasury Direct.. too damn much.. what about this Public app?.. any experience peeps?
I opened an account with fidelity and ended up transferring fromTD as well. I couldn’t be more happy. Thanks to Jen! More user friendly, they answer their phones and you can buy TBills, 17 week t bills & CMBs. Just better overall. Not sure why your accountant will be pissed? He or she works for you. 😊
@@debrabullion3766 Thanks DB! - I'm working up the initiative as I just finally got TD to open an inherited IRA for me after two months of delay for virtually nothing.. I guess they're super low on employees now that they've been acquired by Schwab.. Accountant just wants me to simplify so he can bill me less... a worthy cause :).. happy Yield hunting
T Bill rate will go higher?
3 day CMB...interesting.
Thanks for your information, you must get a better sound on your broadcast. Too LOW.
Noted
Nice video
So I'm in the auction to get my first ever 4 week t-bill. Is there any way to know how much it may come down? Because they have been going for nearly 6% lately if I'm not mistaking.
There is no way to "know", but she just explained how much it "could" come down (not much). There is no way for her to "know".
@Enforcer I rewatched it again and I saw. I'm at a pool full of kids lol. But thanks for the info. I'm new to t-bills but heavily invested in ibonds and wanted to get into t-bills now. I'll just have to wait and see!
you won't know the rate you get until the announcement date, unfortunately
@@followmesky You mean until after the auction on the auction date.
@@SpaceClick You're right. It's really the issue date, after the auction. Thanks
Does anyone here know how to get a T- bill into auto roll if you did not requested at the time you purchased it? For instance if you bought the t-bill on the 3rd of the month and do not request auto-roll at the time but then 3 weeks later you change your mind and want it to auto roll at maturity? Thanks in advance.
Where did you buy your t-bill? At Treasury Direct it's possible to edit individual bills to change reinvestment information, which includes adding or modifying, as long as it's not too close to the maturity date.
@@bjdarrow I eventually found out that Fidelity does not allow you to do this, after you purchase the Bill. However, alternatively, you can choose to renew at purchase and then decide the opposite (cancelling the reinvestment). Treasury OTOH allows you to go both ways online. Thanks
@@MrRudy235 what is OTOH?
He and the guy behind him look beat.
I just placed an order for 5 day T bill at 5.06 .Better than money market fund
Where do you do this? Thanks
Thank you for the video as always very informative. I am tired of Congress holding us all hostage over this. This is all just grandstanding. These are Adult acting like children.
Or Congress could just stop increasing how much it is borrowing instead of voting to increase its debt ceiling.
@@jroysdon Exactly that is the process they are supposed to use. This is the equivalent of holding a gun to your head and say do it this way or else
@@jroysdon The time to do that is when you are setting the budget, not when you are supposed to pay for what you already budgeted for. This action by the Republicans was disgraceful and shows you how much disdain they have for their constituents, threatening to destroy the economy to get their way because they believe their supporters are too stupid to know that it was their fault just because a Democrat is President and the "media" is telling them so. It's a shame that so many people have such a limited understanding of our government and just blame everything on the President, not knowing that congress can do things and there is not much that the President can do about it. These are the acts of a dying party.
Just congress?
@g.t.richardson6311 Congress has the power of the purse. Only reason they are negotiating this way. It is because they are taking advantage of the situation. So yes just congress
any new CMBs?
Please see the community post in the members-zone
Is it only me? why the voice is so low😅😅
Enjoy the pizza! 🍕 Ceiling crisis over! 🇺🇲
Don't put too much into the agreement. It won't be accepted as is by either side, and will still need to be worked out.
In Washington, "in principle" like "fair share" like "common sense" can mean anything. 😁
Gets 4.5% on tbills, only mean you're losing about 2% of your purchasing power instead of 6%. Sweet!
Can I transfer my current ibonds (which I’ve held for over a year) and put them into t-bills? Or would I have to buy t bills with $ in my personal checking account? Thanks
I think you would need to cash out the Ibonds then go buy bills. I could be incorrect but this seems logical. Have not heard anyone talk about Ibond to bills within treasury direct.
As the other supersaver said, if you want to use the proceeds from your I-Bonds to purchase T-Bills, you would need to cash them out first. The other alternative is what you suggested, using funds from your personal checking account.
What a hero Mccarthy is after holding it as leverage for months. 🙄
Lol. I hope not.
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Thanks tool
Not what we discuss here
Pump you bs elsewhere
You're welcome & thanks for sharing
We will default the hard line Republican's are saying never no way.
First viewer lol