So in two heavily leave voting areas reform UK matched its nationwide polling figures. I think we can assume that these are the types of seats where reform would get its best results so I still think their national polling is overstating their support. Still if they keep the Tories in a panic about their "right flank" its no bad thing.
National polling is kinda irrelevant if it doesn't convert to seats. Even if you give Reform a 12% vote share that still populates as 0 MPs in all election calculators. Village idiots everywhere is a given.
For your info - in Kingswood, the Tories ran a quite nasty campaign that focused on the Labour candidate '[not being from Kingswood', even though he grew up here. I got leaflets through my door claiming he was a Londoner (which was pretty stupid - he worked in London, but is very obviously a local guy with the accent to go with it). The gall of the Tories to claim they don't like candidates being parachuted in is also pretty vomit-inducing being as, for example, I don't think Liz Truss had ever been to Norfolk before she ran there!
Starmer is not fit to be prime minister. He is a undemocratic and democracy must be all important to any country. He wanted to get rid of trident he wanted to abolish the monarchy. He is for uncontrolled immigration and open boarders he even voted against illegal migrant criminals rapist and murderous from being deported. He stood on side of corbyn saying he would make a great prime minister then stabbed him in the back. He saw Boris has his biggest threat and spent months and months trying to stir the public against Boris because he knew he didn't stand a cats chance in hell of winning against Boris. Hell will freeze over before I would vote for starmer.
I think we can conclude the point that was made months ago, the British public has simply decided they do not want the Tories in power anymore and nothing is going to change that mindset.
@@TheotherTempestfox The one emerging from covid lockdown enjoying large January retail sales, big leap in business confidence, juicy tax cuts with more incoming thereby boosting growth,..UK only in ''recession'' for barely five minutes. Compare that to Labour boom and bust 2009, no money left,...open borders, cheap EU labour, mass immigration, massive welfare dependency,...years and years of brutal Brown stealth taxes.
@@georgebisacre9413 it's going to be difficult to repeat it all over the country , the polls may suggest labour can win over 400 seats but i just think to gain 200 plus seats in 1 election seems unlikely
They are not. There is never going to be labour government but Tory with Sunak. This is Ge coming up and Sunak is delivering and Starmer has no plan if elected 9:34
@@Trendycosmetics-os6ghwhat rock are you living under? All Sunak has delivered is recession, a broken NHS, and shame. The Tories are cooked. Unless Sunak discovers a magical portal to Middle Earth and exploits the Mithril trade to reinvigorate British manufacturing, the Tories arent going to be winning this election. Labor could literally run a bunch of bland chartered accountants that simply promise to stop the bleeding caused by the Tories and easily win the election. The question is not "will the Tories lose" but "will the tories exist as a party after this election". It is Canada 1993 and the Tories are about to become history.
@davidellis1355 : By saying " no more safe seats " do you mean that Tory seats are no longer considered safe or does that also apply to seats that Labour currently holds ????
Ours is a 'safe seat' Tory constituency, with a hitherto unengaged MP, who has preferred to pursue government positions. Strangely, he's recently been more visible. Maybe, a 21k majority isn't as unasailable as we'd all imagined 😊
All industrial areas have their nearby dormitory suburbs and rural areas where the top businessmen can take refuge when they leave behind their Slave-Driving 'Duties'. They make their money in Hartlepool, Boro and Darlington and weekend in the North Riding. The equivalent dorms for Brum are Solihull, Kidderminster and Lichfield. Britain operates a poorly hidden apartheid system of class distinction.
An interesting coincidence is that the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill is having its Committee stage on Tuesday, so that means one of the first things Chris Skidmore's Labour successor will do as an MP is vote against the Bill he resigned over.
Could the result in Kingswood have been (partially) caused due to the circumstances in which the previous MP stood down, when you compare it to the result in Wellingborough?
I live in Kingswood and I think the fact that Skidmore didn't endorse the Tories after he quit made a bit of a difference, but overall I think people have just decided it's time for a change. Skidmore was very, very popular here (though not in my house). Sam Bromiley is a bit of a charisma vacuum and ran a quite personal and negative campaign against Damien which I suspect turned people off a bit as well. The Tories started off on a more positive footing, presenting their vision and talking about protecting the green belt but the Blue leaflets through the door very quickly became character assassination type stuff which I think the average person isn't really happy with.
I live in Warmley, I've always remembered Skidmore being a popular MP. The Labour vote just reflects the national mood I'd say more so than anything else.
This is a question I have relating to the Lib Dems. In the first half of the Parliament they seemed to be the by election machine. Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. They were also expected to get Mid Beds, but they seem to have lost steam and now Labour seems to be sweeping all before them. Are the Lib Dems now irrelevant?
Euphoric New Statesmen failed to discuss why the British voting public are pissed off with both MS Parties which the turnout in the General Election will show
We`ve just emerged from a time when the Tories only wanted to punish the poor for their poverty and Labour onnly wanted to punish the wealthy for their wealth. Both have preoved disastrous. What the nation needs now is a governement that acts in the interests of the whole country. Starmer is increasingly looking as if he`s got the policies to do that.
Thanks for your comment, you can read it here and the link is also in the description now: www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics-interview/2024/02/chris-skidmore-the-kingswood-by-election-is-the-opposite-of-uxbridge
I'm afraid the Gaza/Israel war will not factor in my voting come May/November, the commentator at 24m in is spot on. It matters to those who have an emotional investment either personal or historical. Being expected to take a side and publicly demonstrate it or ELSE won't cut no ice either. But hey, Galloway will get in and he'll sort it out. Apparently.
It factors into life in other ways. Not least in the Russia Ukraine conflict. You can't supply and finance a genocide in plain sight and then try and muster support against Putin who can point to Gaza as justification for his aggression. BTW Hamas has offered a ceasefire from the outset: a return of hostages in return for the thousands of Palestinians including children Israel interns often without trial and capriciously in the process of running its illegal occupation. Absent the occupation there would be no Hamas.
Yeah. At this point, domestic politics (or local level international relations with the EU and Ireland) are all that voters should consider. The UK cant really do much to change the situation in the Middle East and there are far more pressing issues for Great Britain. For one, Labor needs to save the NHS to stop Britain from getting the nightmare of US healthcare. Also the UK needs to figure out how to get closer to the EU and move towards an EFTA style agreement to help the economy. Remember that not voting is a vote for the Tories and that Sunak isnt going to show any more sympathy for Gazans than he will for the children of Bradford. Sure you can put pressure on Labor to make some changes to their foreign policy platform, but at the end of the day, Labor is a better option than the Tories by a landslide.
It’s probably fair to say this was a vote against the useless Tories rather than a vote for Labour. But, frankly, that’s nearly always the case in by-elections and general elections. Political parties lose elections because they’re unpopular and the main opposition usually gains votes because of that. This was amplified in Kingswood and Wellingborough because of the appalling incompetence of the present government.
Normally yes absolutely - can’t be that two dimensional anymore with these seats, this Government and the trend it’s going? What is probably true here is that is the usual case but now it doesn’t matter. Like ‘97, people are willing to try Labour/want Labour. Too close to a general election to follow the trend you’re saying, surely?
Maybe a lot of people can accept that a spending commitment of £28bn per year really has to be reconsidered when the much higher interest rates will make the investment some 20 times as expensive as you had estimated in 2021?
Investment into things that will stimulate growth and generate jobs is what gets you out of a recession. Unlike other policies, this one actually will create long term growth, security and prospects. So no, not a bad investment
@@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr I don't think moving the uk closer to being energy independent is nothing. Can't be at the mercy of international oil and gas prices forever. The added side effect of fucking up the planet a bit less is also nice
Because they still do manual counts and quite frankly with the mess the US gets up to with voting machines from hanging chads to the orange one and his lunatic mates saying they have been influenced by Hugo Chavas, it’s a damn good job!
I think under labour the immigration crisis will get worse, this could also have knock on affects for the NHS crisis and crime. Labour might get like a honeymoon period from the unions so this could possibly help them. I think on the economy labour will do better than the Tory's, this might help to offset some of the other issues. All in all I'm hardly optimistic it's going to be much better for your average person, time will tell though. I totally agree though that the Tories need booting out, they been a disaster for this country.
Immigration becomes much less of an issue when public services are properly run and cities properly planned. If they had just built enough housing and doctors offices/schools etc. in the early 2000s Labour would have had much less headache back then.
Immigrations only at its current numbers because of Boris Johnson. His issuing of student visas and allowing employers to pay immigrants less than nationals has been the reason. It has quadrupled since he came into office. What's Labour got to do with that?
Those voting Labour were voting for a blank sheet of paper. So many U-turns, no policies remain. Not one policy on making us better off in spite of relentless ''cost of living crisis'' mantra.
“Tory Labour Party” It’s just not the case, and by parroting that ridiculous meme you show yourself to either be a Tory stooge or someone on the left who cannot stand that their own particular brand of Labour isn’t ascendant at the moment.
Loads of tribal, habitual Tory voters don't vote in by elections. Low turnout. I think the Tories will lose the election but I really don't see a landslide happening for Labour. I reckon a small majority.
I think it depends on campaigning and on the effectiveness of the Reform party in throwing dynamite on the Tories. If Starmer is a competent campaigner and Sunak is a buffoon who makes May look charismatic, that will widen the margin of victory substantially. If Labor/Lib Dems use tactical voting and Reform siphons off the far right, the Tories could lose much of Essex and Kent. It could very easily be Canada 1993 where the Conservatives completely collapsed (albeit with a third of their old seats becoming Reform party seats). Looking at PMQs it does appear that Sunak is a terrible campaigner and that Starmer is semi-competent (at least compared to Corbyn's disasterous campaigns).
This is nothing. Wait till GE. Starmer has no plan and Tory didn’t campaign there and there was only 30% turn out. Sunak is delivering whilst Starmer is stuck on the fence. Sunak will definitely win GE 4:31
So in two heavily leave voting areas reform UK matched its nationwide polling figures. I think we can assume that these are the types of seats where reform would get its best results so I still think their national polling is overstating their support. Still if they keep the Tories in a panic about their "right flank" its no bad thing.
National polling is kinda irrelevant if it doesn't convert to seats. Even if you give Reform a 12% vote share that still populates as 0 MPs in all election calculators. Village idiots everywhere is a given.
I've never been the first commenter of a New Statesman video before. Truly a day of monumental change.
Live in kingswood and tactically voted labour. Housing and col crisis are a real issue here.
Like Starmer gives a toss about those things. Thanks for perpetuating the status quo with a new coat of paint.
He's better than the Tories or Reform@@archvaldor
Well done! I hope your country gets to pull itself together.
Thank you for doing your part. It's time for a change in leadership
Col?
For your info - in Kingswood, the Tories ran a quite nasty campaign that focused on the Labour candidate '[not being from Kingswood', even though he grew up here. I got leaflets through my door claiming he was a Londoner (which was pretty stupid - he worked in London, but is very obviously a local guy with the accent to go with it). The gall of the Tories to claim they don't like candidates being parachuted in is also pretty vomit-inducing being as, for example, I don't think Liz Truss had ever been to Norfolk before she ran there!
I hear she had the operation to create webbed-feet in advance of that.
Can anyone else smell panic?
@@CZAC 😂😂
Starmer is not fit to be prime minister.
He is a undemocratic and democracy must be all important to any country.
He wanted to get rid of trident he wanted to abolish the monarchy.
He is for uncontrolled immigration and open boarders he even voted against illegal migrant criminals rapist and murderous from being deported.
He stood on side of corbyn saying he would make a great prime minister then stabbed him in the back.
He saw Boris has his biggest threat and spent months and months trying to stir the public against Boris because he knew he didn't stand a cats chance in hell of winning against Boris.
Hell will freeze over before I would vote for starmer.
More like necrosis
If Nigel Farage joins the Tories, then things will get interesting...
@@infohound41 He only gets elected in democratic processes like European elections.
He's the most overrated character in British politics.
I think we can conclude the point that was made months ago, the British public has simply decided they do not want the Tories in power anymore and nothing is going to change that mindset.
Lol....far too presumptuous,....economy will win it for those lovely, delightful Conservatives.
Very likely but as a former Labour Party agent I count wins when the result is declared
@@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr What Economy?
@@TheotherTempestfox The one emerging from covid lockdown enjoying large January retail sales, big leap in business confidence, juicy tax cuts with more incoming thereby boosting growth,..UK only in ''recession'' for barely five minutes. Compare that to Labour boom and bust 2009, no money left,...open borders, cheap EU labour, mass immigration, massive welfare dependency,...years and years of brutal Brown stealth taxes.
@@georgebisacre9413 it's going to be difficult to repeat it all over the country , the polls may suggest labour can win over 400 seats but i just think to gain 200 plus seats in 1 election seems unlikely
I hope this is actually the end of the conservative party. I feel like ive been ruled by insane scumbags for the last 13 years.
No condition is permanent.
The Labour Party also needs to be rebranded.
We thank you Anoosh! Fascinating stuff, great for an A-level politics teacher like me
I cannot believe anyone would leave Anoosh out in the rain!
The conservatives are do done. The only bad thing about this us that it will empower farage
He is too lazy , won't spend years on the opposition benches. After the $$$
@@daraorourke5798 not when he can make the big money doing the american right wing grift
They are not. There is never going to be labour government but Tory with Sunak. This is Ge coming up and Sunak is delivering and Starmer has no plan if elected 9:34
@@Trendycosmetics-os6gh Do you offer Stand-Up as well?
@@Trendycosmetics-os6ghwhat rock are you living under? All Sunak has delivered is recession, a broken NHS, and shame. The Tories are cooked. Unless Sunak discovers a magical portal to Middle Earth and exploits the Mithril trade to reinvigorate British manufacturing, the Tories arent going to be winning this election. Labor could literally run a bunch of bland chartered accountants that simply promise to stop the bleeding caused by the Tories and easily win the election. The question is not "will the Tories lose" but "will the tories exist as a party after this election". It is Canada 1993 and the Tories are about to become history.
No more safe seats ... I hope they can win West Dorset
@davidellis1355 : By saying " no more safe seats " do you mean that Tory seats are no longer considered safe or does that also apply to seats that Labour currently holds ????
Agree but LibDem target - don't waste your vote on Labour there!
Please continue your mission of 'being committed to shining a light on obscure by-elections' - rain sleet or snow... or barking dogs
I hope the rest of the country will vote the same way!
Maybe it's time the conservatives reconsider their opposition moving away from First Past The Post?
Come on kier, I hope you’re on the road to victory!
Ours is a 'safe seat' Tory constituency, with a hitherto unengaged MP, who has preferred to pursue government positions. Strangely, he's recently been more visible. Maybe, a 21k majority isn't as unasailable as we'd all imagined 😊
Rishi's constituency of Richmond & Northallerton etc will stay blue... I'm from there... it's mind blowingly detached from reality!!
All industrial areas have their nearby dormitory suburbs and rural areas where the top businessmen can take refuge when they leave behind their Slave-Driving 'Duties'. They make their money in Hartlepool, Boro and Darlington and weekend in the North Riding.
The equivalent dorms for Brum are Solihull, Kidderminster and Lichfield.
Britain operates a poorly hidden apartheid system of class distinction.
An interesting coincidence is that the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill is having its Committee stage on Tuesday, so that means one of the first things Chris Skidmore's Labour successor will do as an MP is vote against the Bill he resigned over.
Could the result in Kingswood have been (partially) caused due to the circumstances in which the previous MP stood down, when you compare it to the result in Wellingborough?
I live in Kingswood and I think the fact that Skidmore didn't endorse the Tories after he quit made a bit of a difference, but overall I think people have just decided it's time for a change. Skidmore was very, very popular here (though not in my house). Sam Bromiley is a bit of a charisma vacuum and ran a quite personal and negative campaign against Damien which I suspect turned people off a bit as well. The Tories started off on a more positive footing, presenting their vision and talking about protecting the green belt but the Blue leaflets through the door very quickly became character assassination type stuff which I think the average person isn't really happy with.
I live in Warmley, I've always remembered Skidmore being a popular MP. The Labour vote just reflects the national mood I'd say more so than anything else.
This is a question I have relating to the Lib Dems. In the first half of the Parliament they seemed to be the by election machine. Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. They were also expected to get Mid Beds, but they seem to have lost steam and now Labour seems to be sweeping all before them. Are the Lib Dems now irrelevant?
Anoosh is beautiful and intelligent in so many ways. Utterly irresistible! ❤🎉😊
I got Rishi ad watching this 😂😂😂😂
I feel the constituent that I live in (rochford and Southend east) which has been Tory for as long as I’ve been alive will switch to labour.
Interesting. Once in a lifetime opportunity for Labour?
That will never happen. Rochford will be a disaster with Labour Party This win for labour means nothing. Ge will say it all.
If Essex seats fall, the Tories are facing oblivion.
We can only hope.
@@Trendycosmetics-os6ghOh go away Mogg.
@@Trendycosmetics-os6gh you're making the same desperate claims on lots of comments here but I think you're out of touch with reality, ol chum
Did anyone catch the name of the Modelling mentioned by Ben? Specifically the one that predicted the Reform vote numbers/polling ?
How many excuses can that bloke say 😂
Euphoric New Statesmen failed to discuss why the British voting public are pissed off with both MS Parties which the turnout in the General Election will show
We`ve just emerged from a time when the Tories only wanted to punish the poor for their poverty and Labour onnly wanted to punish the wealthy for their wealth. Both have preoved disastrous. What the nation needs now is a governement that acts in the interests of the whole country. Starmer is increasingly looking as if he`s got the policies to do that.
Rachel's interview with Skidmore . . . there's no link to it in the description; does anyone know it?
Thanks for your comment, you can read it here and the link is also in the description now: www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics-interview/2024/02/chris-skidmore-the-kingswood-by-election-is-the-opposite-of-uxbridge
Quite a simple question to Ben but be rambles on and on. Really, the NS videos could be a lot shorter without losing quality.
Comment section I need help: is there a chance the Labour Party can reverse the 5-point plan James Cleverly announced on immigration?
they totally can. These are just policies. They can be changed by whoever is in charge. Theres nothing binding about them
Will there ever be a 5-point plan from, dud, vacuous, empty Starmer?
Perpetually U-turning.
Hello
I'm afraid the Gaza/Israel war will not factor in my voting come May/November, the commentator at 24m in is spot on. It matters to those who have an emotional investment either personal or historical. Being expected to take a side and publicly demonstrate it or ELSE won't cut no ice either. But hey, Galloway will get in and he'll sort it out. Apparently.
It factors into life in other ways. Not least in the Russia Ukraine conflict. You can't supply and finance a genocide in plain sight and then try and muster support against Putin who can point to Gaza as justification for his aggression.
BTW Hamas has offered a ceasefire from the outset: a return of hostages in return for the thousands of Palestinians including children Israel interns often without trial and capriciously in the process of running its illegal occupation. Absent the occupation there would be no Hamas.
Yeah. At this point, domestic politics (or local level international relations with the EU and Ireland) are all that voters should consider. The UK cant really do much to change the situation in the Middle East and there are far more pressing issues for Great Britain. For one, Labor needs to save the NHS to stop Britain from getting the nightmare of US healthcare. Also the UK needs to figure out how to get closer to the EU and move towards an EFTA style agreement to help the economy. Remember that not voting is a vote for the Tories and that Sunak isnt going to show any more sympathy for Gazans than he will for the children of Bradford. Sure you can put pressure on Labor to make some changes to their foreign policy platform, but at the end of the day, Labor is a better option than the Tories by a landslide.
Ben is 100% right about Gaza & Israel
It’s probably fair to say this was a vote against the useless Tories rather than a vote for Labour. But, frankly, that’s nearly always the case in by-elections and general elections. Political parties lose elections because they’re unpopular and the main opposition usually gains votes because of that. This was amplified in Kingswood and Wellingborough because of the appalling incompetence of the present government.
Normally yes absolutely - can’t be that two dimensional anymore with these seats, this Government and the trend it’s going? What is probably true here is that is the usual case but now it doesn’t matter. Like ‘97, people are willing to try Labour/want Labour. Too close to a general election to follow the trend you’re saying, surely?
And it’s probably a fair mix of both: Tired of Tories, Anticipating Labour as well as actually believing or following their dogma
Useless Tory? useless Labour Party with Starmer. GE is coming and Starmer will lose and resign
Economy fast improving, inflation and interest rates tumbling,....that's what'll swing it for the Tories.
Failure Labour much too risky.
Maybe a lot of people can accept that a spending commitment of £28bn per year really has to be reconsidered when the much higher interest rates will make the investment some 20 times as expensive as you had estimated in 2021?
Investment into things that will stimulate growth and generate jobs is what gets you out of a recession.
Unlike other policies, this one actually will create long term growth, security and prospects. So no, not a bad investment
This eco stuff is fantasy stuff, horrendously expensive, achieving very little.
@@KILKennyLaDa9898-js2nr I don't think moving the uk closer to being energy independent is nothing. Can't be at the mercy of international oil and gas prices forever.
The added side effect of fucking up the planet a bit less is also nice
why dont they count ballots at polling stations and then report them. waiting 6 hours is crazy
Because they still do manual counts and quite frankly with the mess the US gets up to with voting machines from hanging chads to the orange one and his lunatic mates saying they have been influenced by Hugo Chavas, it’s a damn good job!
I think under labour the immigration crisis will get worse, this could also have knock on affects for the NHS crisis and crime. Labour might get like a honeymoon period from the unions so this could possibly help them. I think on the economy labour will do better than the Tory's, this might help to offset some of the other issues. All in all I'm hardly optimistic it's going to be much better for your average person, time will tell though. I totally agree though that the Tories need booting out, they been a disaster for this country.
Immigration becomes much less of an issue when public services are properly run and cities properly planned. If they had just built enough housing and doctors offices/schools etc. in the early 2000s Labour would have had much less headache back then.
Immigrations only at its current numbers because of Boris Johnson. His issuing of student visas and allowing employers to pay immigrants less than nationals has been the reason.
It has quadrupled since he came into office.
What's Labour got to do with that?
Those voting Labour were voting for a blank sheet of paper.
So many U-turns, no policies remain.
Not one policy on making us better off in spite of relentless ''cost of living crisis'' mantra.
Starmer's Tory Labour party gained a pittance,just look at the stats compared to 2017-19. Most tory voters stayed at home or voted for others.
“Tory Labour Party”
It’s just not the case, and by parroting that ridiculous meme you show yourself to either be a Tory stooge or someone on the left who cannot stand that their own particular brand of Labour isn’t ascendant at the moment.
Loads of tribal, habitual Tory voters don't vote in by elections. Low turnout. I think the Tories will lose the election but I really don't see a landslide happening for Labour. I reckon a small majority.
I think it depends on campaigning and on the effectiveness of the Reform party in throwing dynamite on the Tories. If Starmer is a competent campaigner and Sunak is a buffoon who makes May look charismatic, that will widen the margin of victory substantially. If Labor/Lib Dems use tactical voting and Reform siphons off the far right, the Tories could lose much of Essex and Kent. It could very easily be Canada 1993 where the Conservatives completely collapsed (albeit with a third of their old seats becoming Reform party seats). Looking at PMQs it does appear that Sunak is a terrible campaigner and that Starmer is semi-competent (at least compared to Corbyn's disasterous campaigns).
It will be libdems or the green for me. I hate keir SCAMMER!!!
Why?
The Pro-Israel bias is really strong, guys. The AP recommends neutral language
@tcb3901 : Better Pro-Israel than being considered anti-semitic
@@herondelatorre4023 Wow! What does that say about perceptions of antisemitism.
This is nothing. Wait till GE. Starmer has no plan and Tory didn’t campaign there and there was only 30% turn out. Sunak is delivering whilst Starmer is stuck on the fence. Sunak will definitely win GE 4:31
Nurse!
Economy is clearly turning, no recession,...inflation soon 1.4% and interest rates tumbling.