Are Leading Indicators Broken?
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- Опубликовано: 9 фев 2025
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This video explores why there has been an unusually long lag between a decline in Leading indicators and the expected impact on growth and employment.
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
Thank you buddy! You’re one of the few reporters I trust. What people forget is that they can still setup a profit stream before and after retirement - make it part of your budget and you would be amazed how much money you can have during later years (after 75). I have a small TFSA, GIC, and high interest in digital market rolling through my retirement with the aid of a technical analyst. A fundamental knowledge of this strategy is required to prepare one for a convenient retirement I must commend.
As you know there are tons of opportunities out there and without solid knowledge I can’t decide which is best, but having a technical analyst sounds more like it. Could you please explain further how you this works.
Does this program take into account the compound growth of the RRSP over time while in retirement? I'm guessing the funds are still invested while they are drawing from them.
What software you are using? - I would like to play with the numbers as I’m planning an early retirement. Who is this technical analyst?
On telgram with the user name below..
On telgram with the user name below..
Everything is broken thanks to low rates, money printing and the everything bubble.
Low rates??
From before, for a long time. Not now. It did the damage though.
Ya. Don't forget Japan gov outright started buying equities to stimulate everything. I can see our gov doing the same, as they've effectively already been doing by giving so much $ to megacaps in the name of "A.I. developement".
thanks EPB. I'm still team "hard landing... eventually" lol
For some reason there a contingent out there HOPING for a recession...
@@avernvrey7422I feel delaying the natural cycles of the economy only makes the eventual cycle continuation worse. I don’t hope for a recession, only a resumption of the natural ebbs and flows that inevitably drive the next upswing. A forest will die without the occasional burn, and a severely delayed burn will be much more destructive than the naturally occurring small ones.
By changing the rules of what we call a recession. This was changed in 2022 right at the exact time we had two negative quarters of GDP growth.
@@jhygggffg7360Natural economic cycles? How about an organic panic... 😂
@@avernvrey7422 Ignorance is not bliss
do you ever get tired of ALWAYS being wrong?
Ahahha true, this dude is a clown
He even deleted comments similar to yours lmao…
@ Indeed, clicked back to this from a reply to a comment chain no longer here about how he deleted a bunch of old videos. Embarrassing.
Unsubbed from this channel after seeing that behavior despite generally good explanations.
@@tHebUm18 Same, unsubbed
Lol this guy is deleting comments about him deleting videos of wrong predictions over the last few years?
Unsubbed.
@@wesselmartens1621 Same
I think the current data is much more consistent with the recessions of the 1970s. There is an extremely high similarity in the situation between 1974 to 1975 and 2023 and 2024. For myself, I call it an "inflationary recession", I believe that there was already a recession in 2023 and 2024, it just wasn't caused by the business cycle, but by inflation, similar to what we just saw in the 70s.
True, asset prices spike and gov spending overal covers up the fact lots of people are struggling
New video with a new hypothesis every year so, and the market is still standing...
EPB has been bearish for the last 3 years. Even with a 50% crash, he wouldn't be able to buy at the low prices from 3 years ago. Especially in stocks.
@@djaj7144so are you buying at the current prices?
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She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name,,
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Thank you…. I have searched her up Google I think I am satisfied with her experience.
Clear, concise and to the point! Keep up the great work.
Thanks!
Thank you!!
Point is, the cutting back of interest rates to zero blew historic bubbles everywhere in 2020-2022. We'll get the hangover soon.
The hang over will be a melt up, it won't be a massive crash....and anyone without assets will be rendered POOR by the rapid rate of new inflation the likes of which we've probably never seen. My guess is sometime in the next 2 - 5 years.
Have fun being poor!
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How did you manage to achieve that level of growth? I've been trying everything I can to improve my investments, I want to retire in a few years and I need a better diversification
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Thank you! Please make longer content, interviews, podcasts!
ugh, another sky is falling channel...i was duped by these channels a few years back and missed out on huge gains. steve van metr is the worst...that guy has screamed recession for the last 20 trillion years.
This channel and that other lunatic the maverick of wall street or something are doomsaying since Covid 😂🤡 I’m sorry for those who believe this shit, they lost so much gains
Tbf they were thinking logically. The market _should've_ crashed, but it didn't. As much as people like to give the federal reserve shit for not doing what they think is right, the fed has been doing very well keeping the market afloat and preventing a massive crash. I'm not saying the fed is/isn't doing the right thing (for long-term market health), just speaking from a performance standpoint from 2008 until now.
Agree with you that the sky is falling channels are terrible, but I wouldn't say this channel is in that same category. He has some videos that come off that way, but his content is always very objective and rooted in the fundamentals. He's never screaming about an impending doom or giving any sort of investment advice. Really feels like more of an educational channel to me than a scaremongering one.
@@dlanor15 the fact you're so very wrong but getting likes explains the ignorance of the country. The last admin had been printing money to keep the market pumped and the economy appearing "good" in spite of what the federal reserve was doing. Now that the election buying liquidity is fading away, watch what happens next.
Nope. The guy isn't pontificating doom from his armchair but actively researching the business cycle.
Enough of the classical recession signals have been hot that anyone doing that research would be foolish to ignore them.
This is incredible, I never would have guessed that there would be a correlation like this in the market, I've been wondering for a while now why the turn around had not happened yet. Thanks so much you made me a subscriber in this video
I think you are forgetting that multi family dwelling means more housing per permit. Similar happened in oil when they switched to horizontal drilling. Less rigs more oil.
The point is condos cost as much as single family homes should. So more revenue for employment.
What an analysis 😮👏👏👏👏
Okay, this is one of the indicators, but what about the others? My criticism is that "just building a house" is not an indication of how the job market is going to be in, let's say, the oil industry, or the general economy. This effect must be for _all_ indicators to actually make sense to me. Best example would be NVIDIA - they won't bother if there is unemployed but forklift certified drivers running around.
Feels like a CoverYourAss type video. Still like the analysis though, keep it up.
thanks Eric!
Excellent video!! Can you do more of these with other leading indicators? Such as yield curve and consumer co fierce? Thanks!
The economy is broken
is all I've heard for the last 20years.
It works, you just have to be a multimillionaire to not feel squeezed. Just broken for the rest of us fighting amongst ourselves over an ever shrinking share of the pie ignoring the astounding growth in wealth inequality over the past 40 years. Economy still working great for the wealthy to get wealthier with lower effective tax rates than the shrinking middle class.
Somehow an economy with a a 3-4% GDP QoQ is broken? Your little brain is just too stupid to understand macroeconomics.
They are running out of excuses as why their economic predictions have been wrong for 2 years
PREDICT CRASH EVERY MONTH AND YOU WILL BE RIGHT EVENTUALLY. THIS IS WHAT THIS CHANNEL IS ABOUT.
you should have put this video out months ago when you were talking about the leading indicators, not now after you realized things didn't happen
too much long term debt was issued during extreme low rates
Except building permits fell only a little, per your graph, not a lot like in 2008. And looking at the lates data they are creeping back up again. So whatever decline will be minimal and short lived.
Valid point, but 2008 isn't the best comparison since it was the biggest decline in history. Permits fell about 30% from peak levels yet construction activity is only down about 15% so far so it's the lag there that's allowed employment to hang in for longer than expected.
Hopefully the decline in building permits is short lived--we still haven't come remotely close to offsetting the incredible lack of underbuilding relative to population growth that took place 2008-2019 which is part of why housing has become so unbelievably unaffordable.
Love the content, keep it up!
these indicators are mainly for the "old economy" we are now in a "new" digital economy that is over inflated by digital "money"
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in 2025 with the markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy and hold'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in ROI
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
The adviser I'm in touch with is 'Melissa Terri Swayne'. You can use something else, for me her strategy works hence my result. she provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
‘Melissa Terri Swayne an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
So basically we will see a drastic fall ... eventually?
Yes. That's the "big" prediction: _"Eventually, we'll have another recession."_
Nobody can predict the future.
Between now and 2050, yes.
Quick answer…..YES
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Safest approach i feel to go about it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Lisa Grace Myer’ and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her.
I just checked her out and I have sent her an e-mail. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The stock market is not the economy. It is what most participants consider how the economy may be, in the future.
people really need to stop using words like "exploded" and "skyrocketed" to describe everything
The answer lies in the money supply inflating asset prices. M2 was increased 40% (6 trillion) 2020-22. Home prices increased 37% during the same period. It’s comical to see crypto market cap 3.7 trillion, Dogecoin 60 billion, Fartcoin 1 billion and everyone is all-in. Someone should do an analysis to see how much wealth has been transferred to billionaires by clueless sheeple trading stocks and crypto on Robin Hood. Billionaire wealth as a percentage of GDP has increased from 14% to 21% over the last 4 years.
Good strategy as always. Thanks a lot for this video. Everything completely explained. I have long since realized profits through trader Anna and am now relaxed and watch her doing the trades in all the markets and i withdraw profits.
Hw can i get on Trader Anna.
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Nice
I feel fortunate as I bought most of my stocks in 2020 and 2022. I haven't bought any since but it's lunacy to not be diversified.
Cause it won’t! We are the biggest and strongest economy in the world!
You didn't even mention the long-short (usually 10-2 year) treasury yield curve, inversion, uninversion and its implications. It has more direct relevance to what you're talking about then the housing market lag effect described here.
I've discussed the yield curve several times. It is an important part of a comprehensive leading indicator basket, in addition to things like building permits.
👍
So why didn’t you mention this problem when you made you original predictions? Making excuses doesn’t really help
Even if we have a deep recession with 50% loss it won’t make up for the mistakes this channel has made over the last three years. Yeah eventually the economy will turn but probably best to ignore someone this wrong for this long
I think it’s pretty obvious something is coming, we just don’t know when.
when saltman goes on stage and demonstrates the next gen AI that is truly capable of doing any and every job with minimal to no human intervention
Because central banks. The end.
This was pointless
Lol TV era indicators don't do shit in an internet era.
Youre like 3 days behind.
I think crypto has a lot to do with it. There are a lot of people out there who bought Bitcoin when it was at $500 and now it's worth 100K.
Can't fire when you still need to hire. The Demographic Drought is the real reason why no recession will be showing up. 1000 more workers retiring than entering the workforce... PER DAY.
Everything is broken, but stock market is still making new high every-week
Everything is actually going well. You low iq kids reading "scary" info on the internet about how everything is broken is what's wrong. We are still 3-4% QoQ on GDP and unemployment is low, inflation is low, and manufacturing data is booming. You have to remember, most of you are way too stupid to be investing/trading on your own.
god, one day you will be proven right. Until then keep making videos. Always extrapolating the negative trend
Everything is masked by 2 trillion annual deficits...everything is pointless as usa still the best alternative to protect the rackets, mostly...
Sorry, you've missed it -- everything depends on the constant inflow of passive money, that is the momentum. Once flows into the indexes reverse, we will see our retirement system collapse, that's why it can't be allowed to happen. But at some point, people WILL want their money out, that's when the chaos begins. Look up Mike Green if you want to know more about passive.
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Housing is not leading indicators of US economy…you are losing the forest😂
So what is, o wise one?
Completed housing is a lagging indicator. Building permits are a leading indicator. You have conflated two things that are related but not the same.
Housing is one of the leading indicators. Yes, there is a forest of information but a lot of those trees you're seeing are influenced by housing. About 16% of the economy is housing and many other sectors of the economy, think government spending, grocery stores, etc are non-cyclical. So housing is a significant leading indicator.
China is the one that economy is driven by housing. Not the US.
The US economy grows mainly through innovation and increasing productivity. Housing serves as a fundamental need for living rather than acting as a primary driver of the entire economy. Don't just rely on theoretical knowledge-think practically. Japan serves as a prime example of how a shrinking population and a weakening housing market can eventually rebound as productivity begins to improve.
@@el4138 So you're talking about how the economy grows/shrinks, not what the main indicators of such are...womp womp.
Everything is broken, since 2020....
No, it broke in 2006 and we've been trying to climb out of it ever since by printing trillions and trillions and there is no room for more printing without serious consequences in 2025.
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