How To Track The Economy & Predict Recessions
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- Опубликовано: 9 фев 2025
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This video provides an in-depth overview of the Business Cycle Sequence and the EPB Four Economy Framework.
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Let's face it... buying more stocks & index funds during stock market corrections and bear markets is scary. Which makes it really hard to do for most people like me. I have 260k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
I've been thinking of going that route, been holding a bunch of stocks that keeps tanking and I don't know if to keep holding or just dump them, think you coach could aid me with portfolio-restructuring?
“ Lisa Grace Myer is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
Eric's videos are the absolute best on Macro!
So glad you like them!
@@EPBResearch Absolutely love them! Learnt so much from you! Thank you Eric!
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K in a meme coin from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires. ❤️
Huge! been trying to trade on my own for a while now but it isn't going well. Few weeks ago I lost about $10,000 in a particular trade. Can you at least advise me on what to do ?
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful.
I'm guided by Josh Olfert.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimony on CNBC news last week.
I have made more than 90K God bless Josh Olfert God bless America 🇺🇸.
Keep it coming Eric!
Will do!
I love your input on this. Thanks for contributing to a fundamentals based analysis and not clickbait nonsense.
Trying to put forward good educational content!
EPB releasing two videos in one week?! 👀
We are so fucked
How lucky are we!?
I really appreciate your work and clarity. Perhaps your upcoming releases will help us make wise investment decisions. Seems like we have been waiting a very long time for this economy to blow off some steam.
"Waiting" is relative to which of the Four Economies you are in (most people are in services, so the fourth or Lagging Economy.)
If you chat with someone in manufacturing (Cyclical Economy, second bucket), they will tell you conditions have been rough for more than a year.
The BLS reports job losses in manufacturing for over a year.
Always contextualize the economy through these buckets as it allows for more nuance.
The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, is most closely aligned to the Lagging Economy.
@@EPBResearch You are right. I am in Manufacturing and I have seen the volume is declining significantly.
Excellent as usual. Please share where we are right now based on all indicators combine.
Glad you liked it!
We provide a comprehensive update of exactly where we are in this sequence each month. We present it in an animated video like this video.
The link is in the description.
You can also reach out through our website for more information.
@@EPBResearch I appreciate it.
Great work.
Many many thanks
Great video, thanks Igor!
The intellectual achievement is excellent. The visual presentation is excellent. I wish the Federal Reserve would pay attention to what Eric says. Eric can focus but the Fed feels it must multi-task and juggle a thousand thoughts at the same time. Eric is cool, calm and collected but the Fed looks distracted and persecuted. Wise up bureaucrats!
Looking forward for lots more!
The modern day Federal reserve has distorted the business cycle greatly. You now never know how much money is left in the system because the Fed just keeps delaying the any downturn with more money.
free college!
Best comment! That's the goal!
Damn, beautiful. Clear as day.
Ray Dalio inspired video ?
this video was a little tip off to those who have their eyes and ears open... look at the lagging at @4:15 !!!!
wish you had a cheaper subscription option. Ain't nobody can afford $2k per year :(
👍
The whole point of any technical analyses like these is to predict (1) when to buy and when to sell and (2) what to buy and sell. Where is the proof that EPB Research's models provide actionable intelligence consistently over a timespan exceeding 10 years consecutively resulting in returns better than simple buy and hold dollar cost averaging into low expense ratio S&P500 index funds? I'll be sure and hold my breath awaiting for the evidence making your case.
I hear what you are saying but that is not the exclusive goal of what we do as our client base spans well into construction developers, manufacturing companies and logistic companies that are not involved in the stock market at all.
@@EPBResearch Translation: There are no metrics to prove your analysis provides net value. There are no predictions you've made with specific actionable recommendations that are archived publicly to prove the value of your service. If were able to do this, you would not be making videos on youtube. You would be a billionaire and not sharing your insights online.
@@drott150 Indeed.
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