Subscribed today. I have been informed greatly and pleasantly by your videos in the past, and now see I have simply forgotten to do the minimum 'thank you' beyond simply 'liking' your content. You RAWK!
RUclips ads are getting out of control. I’m not sure if you have any control over that or not. Have you every considered moving to another platform such as Rumble?
Cern is by far my favorite guest. He has the most analytical mind and builds the best models towards understanding potential for Tesla’s furure business.
True. There is lots of redundancy but not everyone listens every day or to every video. Herbert is still the most comprehensive in Tesla coverage and deserves lots of credit for his efforts.
Well, I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered and I don't know where to go here out of devastation.
The safest approach I feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.
@@RodericksCurrys I totally agree. A financial advisor can provide valuable insights and help ensure that our investment portfolios are aligned with our long-term financial goals. They have the expertise to navigate through market fluctuations and make informed decisions.
@@SloansHagers The beauty of MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY approach is her dual focus: while aggressively pursuing profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
Every time Cern comes on the show, I get real excited......these are conservative numbers!!!.....MIND IS OFFICIALLY BLOWN (AGAIN)!!!.......thanks Cern for all of your hard work.
I've been an investor in Nvidia for the past six years now because I strongly believe in the company and in the stock, but now I've been thinking of redistributing my portfolio of about $560k and buy other stocks. and asset classes. Maybe buy Tesla? They are also doing great things in the AI space. Some digital currencies too. What do you think?
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
Cern is an absolute G! This is WILD! Love the presentation as always with the charts and graphs from Cern. every time Cern and Herbert drop a video like this it’s even easier to justify buying Tesla at what ever price it is today. Don’t care if it’s $400 today because it’s going to be worth a lot more in 5-10 years time
I have just saved this interview to watch again and again. It was fantastic, thank you Cern for the most considered and precise breakdown of Tesla I have seen. I will also share it with friends to show them what to expect in the coming years. Epic!😃
@@michaelnurse9089 Okay, maybe I'm wrong but just the fact a company is so close to government and people expect it will be good for business and their stock, is something I didn't see coming, and it makes me sad.
Thanks Cern, and Herbert. I watch this video twice and value how you made a projection. Nobody does it like you and there are other analysis with also valuable graphs that are possible. Cern is on a league of his own, I am sure Elon Musk is following your projections. Nice Job
Tesla will either do a share buyback or pay a great dividend in the next 5 years as they start printing money. It’s so exciting to see how this plays out!
There’s a lot more to build before dividends. Once a company starts they shouldn’t stop. Buyback potentially if factories are already covered in budget and credits/laws are known. Exciting
@ if they can be productive with the money continued growth sounds great. At some point (I am thinking 5ish years), they will have to do something with all their money.
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
Some strategies could be put in place for solid gains regardless of the economic situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
@@AdlenGrassi I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@QumarsNou MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY is a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and is a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
@@LovisaJawadi I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
Could you please consider removing the price value from the title? It sounds so ridiculous, that many my friends will reject that even without looking, because this sounds too good. And I want them to watch this whole video!
Cern, this is incredible! No other analyst has brought the opportunity to light this clearly. We're looking in the future. Elon has laid out the plan in plain English. If you could see in the future, take advantage of this opportunity... Just awesome. Even if you're half correct. I think you're likely right on.
I'm sorry fellow subscribers but you guys are so lazy with that like button. The amount of value that comes out of these videos he should atleast get the standard 10% view/like ratio. Thanks Herbert and Cern, amazing show. The future is indeed bright!
Great channel Herbert and thank you Cern for taking the time to share with us your analysis. I'm 58yrs and jumped on board about two months ago going All In buying 383 shares. I'm looking forward to paying off my house $150,000 and buying a new vehicle in five years give or take and still have shares.
I wish this was all happening ten years ago….I’ll be in my 70’s when Tesla moves me from comfortably off to rich….😐 Good to see that there are more analysts with brains out there who are willing and able to look a decade ahead instead of the dolts on Wall Street who can’t see past the next quarter! Cernbasher, Ark Invest and Solving the Money Problem all give me confidence that my money is on the right horse!
Even with a p/e of 100, that would require $100/share earnings. Next year, they're estimated to make $3.24. From $3.24 to $100 would require earnings to double every year.
@@darylfoster7944 It is not coming from existing earnings. It will come from new earnings from Robotaxi/Optimus. Revenue growth will be nothing for a dozen or so quarters and then suddenly take off in just a couple - think Apple with the iPhone.
Too soon. Robocab factory only pushing out first batch then. Semi still ramping. Optimus still in limited beta. 2027-2028 for that price. Then again, wtf do I know.
Bullish or bearish, AI stocks will still dominate 2024, even beyond. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long-term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or seek advice from certified market strategists.
@@HabiboMelzig Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
@@HabiboMelzig I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get.
Once again, Cern's analysis and calculations encourage me to stay with Tesla for several more years. Heck, my money doesn't have anything better to do than grow.
Take over an entire abandoned mall. Have major charging, sales, service and off-road course for CT, let people drive the Semi, rent out to a supermarket chain and a movie theater chain, do a Tesla laundromat there and then rent space on the outskirts to third parties who want to sell to Tesla customers and EV owners in general. People can experience Optimus and see the robotaxi fleet being cleaned and charged and sent out again. It’d be part amusement park tbh 😊 Cover most of it in solar and have a BESS and it’ll be a good sized power plant too. These could become new malls with a purpose and a sustainable ethos from the start. These could be a large source of revenue. But they should make one asap and really go for it somewhere in Austin area.
Cern is the greatest of all time 😅... Really appreciate the way you present the variables in your model. Your assumptions are also reasonable and clear. Everytime you present it's worth paying attention. Thank you, Cern, Herbert. If you could team up with Adam Dorr, Jordon (the limiting factor) - i.e., Cern, Adam, Jordan, Herbert to have a discussion on battery and energy requirements into a 4th industrial revolution - it would be special to hear. The more energy produced (especially if without negative externalities) the more energy consumed. I assume the total world energy requirements will not simply go (near) full electric - it will grow more than we've assumed thus far. The denominator on global energy demand - demand itself (i.e., TAM) will expand - I assume - since history seems to suggest. E.g., imagine Tesla as a "mech' wear" (i.e., biosynthetic - Neuralink'esque) company also - that would likely rival bots in value 😅 Tesla cyberpunk lol - prosthetic arms, legs, eyes, etc., probably no BCIs. Then there's the general AI initiatives. Christ❗ Thus, in the longer term, we're still being conservative, perhaps 😅? 🙏🏾❗ Thank you
The discount rate is the method used to bring future stock prices back to the present day. So a 14% discount rate is the annual return that an investor might require to invest in the stock. Said another way, future dollars are worth less than today's dollars.
I would like to know how Cern came to his daily revenue model for Optimus. He’s estimating $27 per day of revenue per bot. That’s a low cost for a business and a high cost for an individual. Elon says everyone will have one or more in their house. That makes me think the monthly cost will be much lower than Cern’s projection. Not to mention that other companies are already selling a low cost bot. I’m not aware of their monthly charge if any, but I bet it’s significantly lower than Cern’s estimate for Optimus
Herbert and I have done a few videos on bots where we've discussed this. In the early years the profit on a bot will be much higher than $27/day. In the later years the profit could be lower, but on billions of bots the total profit would be gigantic.
I agree. Assigning a 100% probability to Elon failing completely to reach ANY of his stated goals, after he has stacked Win on Win on Win, is beyond ridiculous.
About the "Potential Share Price" charts, I think it would be much more straightforward to show a chart of the "Estimated Fair Price by Year". I guess this is what the blue chart shows, but the way it's presented is confusing.
Something to consider. At some point, or points, Tesla will upgrade factory Optimus bots. Could they sell used Optimus bots to the public, or to other manufacturers?
I would like to hear what kind of financial plans Cern would consider for TSLA retail shareholders with various share counts 50, 100, 500, 1000, 5000 or 10,000+ shares. I'm in my 40s, own 800+ shares, about 350 in a traditional IRA, 350 in a Roth IRA & 100 in a brokerage account
Just found the channel def subbed, thank you for the great information! 10k beginner investor here, is it too late to enter this cycle? or would i see more gain at a lower entry point? if so when you do think the next dip will occur speculatively?
IMHO I think ultimately the auto business of Tesla will be the Robotaxi business but that will take several years…beyond 2030-2035. The robotaxi ramp up will take several years and the expansion worldwide. People still would like to drive their Teslas as they are so much fun and Tesla could still sell them the FSD package meanwhile. The regulators could also play a big role how fast will they allow them (worldwide) to operate. Great show Cern is 👌🏽🙏🏼👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
With Elon working with the White House, these projections seems more realistic ever. FSD needs a lot of approvals, Chinese EV tariffs ... all need US government. Another things is, we'd seen Elon diplomacy, and that's necessary. When Elon was working on Shanghai factory, Li was the party boss and now he's the PM of China. China dominates solar panels in the world, and Tesla Energy would need this.
Absolutely superb comprehensive breakdown. Re SOI - I would argue this would likely fall or at the very least plateau. As when you're reaching lofty heights of FCF they will struggle to find a home for all that cash. Share buybacks will be inevitable come 2030 latest.
@@HAL9000_ICantDoThat Yes - new share issuance to employees/Elon should be offset by lots of FCF to buyback stock - which will likely cause a drop in shares outstanding at some point. Just being conservative.
Cern has revealed what many 'Tesla Opimist' are inviting people to pay for (a long term evaluation- both Bull, moderate and Bear case) in a simple to understand method. Admittedly, I have not 'subscribed' to said evaluations, but am convinced that those whom have required compensation for such info would largely agree that this module is at least close to their own evaluation. Thank you, Cern, for divulging your module freely, and giving investors something tangible to consider, which is largely optimistic. I know you will receive a lot of pushback on this by those who deem any real 'value' in Tesla, and I trust you are prepared to 'produce the reciepts'. True, we do not know what the future holds, but anyone investing in any company should, at very least, look at past performance (not time lines) to make a sound decision.
The reason Tesla is so undervalued is that 90% of the industry believe the ONLY, ONLY, ONLY thing that matters is past results, and based on that one or two quarters projected forward. That is why Wall Street consensus says Tesla is worth 200 or something like that. There are lots of other videos analysing Tesla's results - normally just past release of the results. This video is all about projecting forward the value of businesses that have not yet earned any revenue.
What happens when roboTaxi's are driving around dropping off Optimus robots to do "useful work". Things like, house work. From taking care of the kids, painting your house, wall mounting TVs, to helping grandma. Tesla semi's delivering merchandise with Optimus bots to stock the shelves? All provided as a service. Practically all human labor unseen by the customer will be a service provided by Tesla. For better or worse, things will get wild. And its only 5-10 years away.
What many don't appreciate is that millions of robots are already in use around the world. However, they generally can only do one function, e.g. weld cars on an assembly line. When the need changes the welder cannot change -- so we tend to think of these as robotic machines rather than robots. (Just as Elon has to remind us that FSD cars are really robots on wheels.) But humanoid AI robots will ultimately be able to switch to any task a human can do whenever needed and instantly learn even more jobs from other robots: plumber, electrician, mechanic, baby sitter, security, search and rescue... I want one.
Dunno. When nobody needs needs to work to survive then we will all focus on our diet so much more. Ostrich burgers will be in demand. Make sure you use bots for labour though...
As of 2024 and using rough numbers the world has approx 900 trillion in wealth (bonds, real estate, stocks, M1,M2 supplies etc) + derivatives market (murky area) ..I’m not smart enough to know how big that number could be in 2035….however, your base case has Tesla in 2035 being worth 15% of today’s current world wealth …btw, this isn’t an attack…what I do suspect that if that’s true, then something truly profound has shifted and values of everything else are also probably blown out of the water in various ways…that or we live in a world where 1 company just dominates so completely that it might be a world we should be wary of…btw, I’m balls deep into Tesla and am thrilled for the ride to come.
I did the same thought experiment - you have to subtract debt - in which case it would be more like 25%. Similar results on GDP. This is realistic if they can do it. Imagine voters in every country want robots outright banned and it does not happen. Imagine there is an unsolvable technological problem we cannot solve. Personally, I have invested every last cent into it as I cannot imagine it not working. Even if it fails and Tesla must sell cars/energy I still get my money back - or at worst half of it.
I don’t think Robotix should be modeled so far out. I really think drones are going to cut into Robotix revenue a lot unless Tesla starts offering drone transportation service because the quickest way to get someplace is in a straight line.
Good point. Robotaxi could also hurt short-haul air travel. And Robotrucking will hurt trains. So there’s plenty of opportunity for robotaxi to eat other markets!
I suspect AI inference could grow even quicker than Optimus, but where we are now makes it much more speculative. We should get a better idea within the next 5 years.
The thing is - what would it be used for? The only market I can think of is powering LLMs. And it would be much lower latency than Nvidia GPUs in a server farm, so it would have to be some kind of 2nd grade LLM or one that takes an hour to answer.
This is why nobody wanted to say the real value out loud people throw rocks at things they can’t wrap their head around you’re messing up their world view
I didn't quite understood which of the categories the FSD revenue fell into in this analysis. It is clear to me that they are not included under "service & other" nor under "AI Interface" since in my humble opinion the FSD should generate huge profits because it is a software sale that has a very large marginal profit with a large sales potential from monthly subscriptions and one-time purchases.
I’m a Tesla bull and think the stock will grow significantly over the next few years, however I don’t agree that Optimus will be as big as Cern thinks. I don’t see Optimus as having much utility in a consumer/home setting. The $25k car was not even mentioned, which I think will cause the stock to explode. However, I hope he is right and I am wrong.
Are you kidding? Do all the household chores, cook the food, repairs and maintenance - and when you are finished go to the neighbours and do the same for a payment.
Pls consider subscribing to help me to get to 100k subs?
It's a simple act but goes a long way to help me and the channel.
Thank you! 🙏
I would if I could subscribe twice! Great channel
Subscribed today. I have been informed greatly and pleasantly by your videos in the past, and now see I have simply forgotten to do the minimum 'thank you' beyond simply 'liking' your content.
You RAWK!
RUclips ads are getting out of control. I’m not sure if you have any control over that or not. Have you every considered moving to another platform such as Rumble?
Cern is by far my favorite guest. He has the most analytical mind and builds the best models towards understanding potential for Tesla’s furure business.
I hate to be too harsh, as this is all free content, but a lot of this channel has become redundant lately. Cern is great.
True. There is lots of redundancy but not everyone listens every day or to every video. Herbert is still the most comprehensive in Tesla coverage and deserves lots of credit for his efforts.
Do my own research? That's what we have Cern for 😅😍
Amazing Cern. And especially since Elon has made the announcement on our latest vid we will be expecting a very interesting ride ahead.
Eventually things like this will beat BTC and ETH because they have AI tech which scales by itself and needs less power consumption
I’ve been following Elon for years, and I trust his vision. xAI is going to change the game!
I really can't wait for the xAI smart contracts. I want to build something!
Good that they got it working in time! Let's go! Trump 2024!
I'm excited to see how xAI unfolds. Self interest meets good outcome.. indeed..
Well, I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered and I don't know where to go here out of devastation.
The safest approach I feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.
@@RodericksCurrys I totally agree. A financial advisor can provide valuable insights and help ensure that our investment portfolios are aligned with our long-term financial goals. They have the expertise to navigate through market fluctuations and make informed decisions.
@@RobisonsWades I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I need help, who is this investment adviser that guides you?
@@SloansHagers The beauty of MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY approach is her dual focus: while aggressively pursuing profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
@@RobisonsWades Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up and wrote her explaining my financial market goals.
Every time Cern comes on the show, I get real excited......these are conservative numbers!!!.....MIND IS OFFICIALLY BLOWN (AGAIN)!!!.......thanks Cern for all of your hard work.
Between Cern and Jeff I feel like I have a crystal ball and am making all the right decisions (long hold TSLA).
I’m in Connecticut and will be buying a Tesla in early 2025.
Don't know if you care, but you may not get the $7500 if you wait until next year.
@@darylfoster7944 just buy the stock!
@ I don’t qualify for the $7500 deduction.
Do not buy a Tesla, buy the shares
@ I already have the shares. Somebody has to buy the cars and I need another car.
Thanks! Cern Basher my favorite!!
Thanks Keith!
I've been an investor in Nvidia for the past six years now because I strongly believe in the company and in the stock, but now I've been thinking of redistributing my portfolio of about $560k and buy other stocks. and asset classes. Maybe buy Tesla? They are also doing great things in the AI space. Some digital currencies too. What do you think?
investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
It's always delightful listening to Cern unpack his latest analysis and how he builds on the previous picture. Well done Cern
This is the only guests I enjoyed watching all throughout your video. Thanks for the great graphs/charts/visuals and explanations.
Thanks a lot, you just made it impossible for me to get a Cybertruck. NO way I can sell TSLA now to fund a Cybertruck purchase.
Sorry
Short term pain for long term gain, worth it 😁
Why buy when you can lease..and still keep your growing stock
hang in there for 5 years and buy 5 Flying Cybertrucks
An extremely thorough, exciting and rational examination of Tesla's future potential.Exellent work.
Cern is an absolute G! This is WILD! Love the presentation as always with the charts and graphs from Cern. every time Cern and Herbert drop a video like this it’s even easier to justify buying Tesla at what ever price it is today. Don’t care if it’s $400 today because it’s going to be worth a lot more in 5-10 years time
I predict Cern will go down in history for this. I have not seen an opportunity like this with the clarity of vision.
I have just saved this interview to watch again and again. It was fantastic, thank you Cern for the most considered and precise breakdown of Tesla I have seen. I will also share it with friends to show them what to expect in the coming years. Epic!😃
I've been talking to my friends and family about Tesla subs since 2019. I've never met someone who can wrap their head around it.
Same, i got them to buy some shares tho
@@Tjmalloy2Me too. Some don’t have a lot, but even a little should set them up for a good retirement.
If you tell them corruption is a good thing nowadays; they will understand.
@@crazyloopster That does not make sense.
@@michaelnurse9089 Okay, maybe I'm wrong but just the fact a company is so close to government and people expect it will be good for business and their stock, is something I didn't see coming, and it makes me sad.
I'm listening again to this video. My fsd v12.5.4.2 is driving A to B without intervention. Smoother and safer than human.
Thanks!
Thank you Rex!
Im 67 and pray I get my Bot before I’m 70, the Bot will dramatically improve quality of life for the aging and ALL RETIREES. 🔥💕🌎😊
Agreed! Tesla seems to focus on factory use for now, but home use will be critical to many.
Doubly so if one's body starts to give in.
Thanks Cern, and Herbert. I watch this video twice and value how you made a projection. Nobody does it like you and there are other analysis with also valuable graphs that are possible. Cern is on a league of his own, I am sure Elon Musk is following your projections. Nice Job
I’ve been dreaming about 20 million auto sales by 2030 and this is just the entree to the Robotaxis and Optimus possibilities. Holy Moly.
What a gift!! Thank you Cern. Your hard work and diligence is very comforting. All we need now is Tesla to deliver 😃
Superb analysis, thank you Cern and Herb.
Great video Herbert. I love hearing from Cern. Super feasable and articulate modelling breakdowns.
Tesla will either do a share buyback or pay a great dividend in the next 5 years as they start printing money. It’s so exciting to see how this plays out!
There’s a lot more to build before dividends. Once a company starts they shouldn’t stop.
Buyback potentially if factories are already covered in budget and credits/laws are known. Exciting
@ if they can be productive with the money continued growth sounds great. At some point (I am thinking 5ish years), they will have to do something with all their money.
No chance. If they do that it means they have no better use for the money and that implies it is time to sell.
@@michaelnurse9089 We shall see.
Exactly!
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
Some strategies could be put in place for solid gains regardless of the economic situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
@@AdlenGrassi I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@LovisaJawadi Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
@@QumarsNou MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY is a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and is a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
@@LovisaJawadi I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
Love these presentations by Cern. Offers so much insight and awareness into Tesla's potential. Thank you both!
Could you please consider removing the price value from the title? It sounds so ridiculous, that many my friends will reject that even without looking, because this sounds too good. And I want them to watch this whole video!
Love a bit of Cern Basher on a Saturday night!
Might be the best Cern video I've seen and I watch a lot!
Cern, this is incredible! No other analyst has brought the opportunity to light this clearly. We're looking in the future. Elon has laid out the plan in plain English. If you could see in the future, take advantage of this opportunity... Just awesome. Even if you're half correct. I think you're likely right on.
I'm sorry fellow subscribers but you guys are so lazy with that like button. The amount of value that comes out of these videos he should atleast get the standard 10% view/like ratio. Thanks Herbert and Cern, amazing show. The future is indeed bright!
Great channel Herbert and thank you Cern for taking the time to share with us your analysis. I'm 58yrs and jumped on board about two months ago going All In buying 383 shares. I'm looking forward to paying off my house $150,000 and buying a new vehicle in five years give or take and still have shares.
Is there some way one can get these spread sheets? They are fantastic.
Optimus isn't creating one business, it's creating 1000s of businesses.
I can relate to Herbert in regards to 3 year projections. This makes more sense for 3-5 year retirement portfolios.
Great analysis Herbert of Tesla future PV and business template. Do you have one of PLTR ?
I wish this was all happening ten years ago….I’ll be in my 70’s when Tesla moves me from comfortably off to rich….😐
Good to see that there are more analysts with brains out there who are willing and able to look a decade ahead instead of the dolts on Wall Street who can’t see past the next quarter! Cernbasher, Ark Invest and Solving the Money Problem all give me confidence that my money is on the right horse!
Is there a link to Cern‘s spreadsheets?
Hello from Germany and thx for you information from Tesla 🙌🏽💪🏼
Herbert, you are the goat in what you doing. Thanks a lot for bringing such an amazing content!!!!
Bam. So well laid out. I finally understand why different people view present day value with such variety. How far willing to peer into future.😮
In my personal valuation model I have Tesla @ around 10k$/stock in 2030. Nice to see that we're on the same ballpark.
Even with a p/e of 100, that would require $100/share earnings. Next year, they're estimated to make $3.24. From $3.24 to $100 would require earnings to double every year.
I would be ecstatic if TSLA only goes up to 20% of your valuation model @ $2,000 per share!!!
@@darylfoster7944how much is the labor of 10,000 humans worth a year? Double that 10 times.
@davidbeppler3032 that absolutely will not happen in five years. Maybe 20 years, possibly longer.
@@darylfoster7944 It is not coming from existing earnings. It will come from new earnings from Robotaxi/Optimus. Revenue growth will be nothing for a dozen or so quarters and then suddenly take off in just a couple - think Apple with the iPhone.
Wow. Thanks for sharing this excellent work. 🙏
Seems very undervalued to me. I think it could be hitting $5000/share by late 2026.
Too soon. Robocab factory only pushing out first batch then. Semi still ramping. Optimus still in limited beta. 2027-2028 for that price. Then again, wtf do I know.
Future is bright! Those forecasts are off the charts!
Very relevant analysis by Cern. Thanks!🙏
Bullish or bearish, AI stocks will still dominate 2024, even beyond. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long-term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or seek advice from certified market strategists.
@@HabiboMelzig Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
@@HabiboMelzig I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get.
Really appreciate all of this great value. TSLA is a smaller part of my portfolio but I’m holding for 10 years plus
Once again, Cern's analysis and calculations encourage me to stay with Tesla for several more years. Heck, my money doesn't have anything better to do than grow.
Take over an entire abandoned mall. Have major charging, sales, service and off-road course for CT, let people drive the Semi, rent out to a supermarket chain and a movie theater chain, do a Tesla laundromat there and then rent space on the outskirts to third parties who want to sell to Tesla customers and EV owners in general.
People can experience Optimus and see the robotaxi fleet being cleaned and charged and sent out again. It’d be part amusement park tbh 😊
Cover most of it in solar and have a BESS and it’ll be a good sized power plant too.
These could become new malls with a purpose and a sustainable ethos from the start.
These could be a large source of revenue. But they should make one asap and really go for it somewhere in Austin area.
Cern is the greatest of all time 😅... Really appreciate the way you present the variables in your model. Your assumptions are also reasonable and clear.
Everytime you present it's worth paying attention.
Thank you, Cern, Herbert.
If you could team up with Adam Dorr, Jordon (the limiting factor) - i.e., Cern, Adam, Jordan, Herbert to have a discussion on battery and energy requirements into a 4th industrial revolution - it would be special to hear.
The more energy produced (especially if without negative externalities) the more energy consumed. I assume the total world energy requirements will not simply go (near) full electric - it will grow more than we've assumed thus far. The denominator on global energy demand - demand itself (i.e., TAM) will expand - I assume - since history seems to suggest. E.g., imagine Tesla as a "mech' wear" (i.e., biosynthetic - Neuralink'esque) company also - that would likely rival bots in value 😅 Tesla cyberpunk lol - prosthetic arms, legs, eyes, etc., probably no BCIs. Then there's the general AI initiatives. Christ❗
Thus, in the longer term, we're still being conservative, perhaps 😅?
🙏🏾❗ Thank you
Thank you CERN!
What did the final slide mean by ‘14% discount rate’? Great video, thankyou.
The discount rate is the method used to bring future stock prices back to the present day. So a 14% discount rate is the annual return that an investor might require to invest in the stock. Said another way, future dollars are worth less than today's dollars.
Cern is awesome. He actually help me plug my car in on the way to Florida a month ago super nice guy!
This guy analysis is outstanding.
Great info Cern
This is such an amazing video love the analysis! Cern is awesome ! Love when he’s on the show! So much Alpha !
Wonderful analysis and considering contributing factors. Appreciate your both!
Thanks Herbert and Cern, monumental work, Thanks. This kills for sure the last shorty is he Mark Kuban?
They say that shorting Tesla will one day make Bill Gates a millionaire.
Thank you Cern and Herbert, appreciate you research 🎉
I would like to know how Cern came to his daily revenue model for Optimus. He’s estimating $27 per day of revenue per bot. That’s a low cost for a business and a high cost for an individual. Elon says everyone will have one or more in their house. That makes me think the monthly cost will be much lower than Cern’s projection.
Not to mention that other companies are already selling a low cost bot. I’m not aware of their monthly charge if any, but I bet it’s significantly lower than Cern’s estimate for Optimus
Herbert and I have done a few videos on bots where we've discussed this. In the early years the profit on a bot will be much higher than $27/day. In the later years the profit could be lower, but on billions of bots the total profit would be gigantic.
I agree. Assigning a 100% probability to Elon failing completely to reach ANY of his stated goals, after he has stacked Win on Win on Win, is beyond ridiculous.
I'm long and conviction buy but this analysis has got me excited again.
Cern does this consider annual subscription for each Optimus? I would assume at least $500/mo - $1000/mo
Yes. I’ve modeled Optimus several ways. The subscription model is very attractive and very profitable for Tesla.
CERN is the best
thanks Cern!
About the "Potential Share Price" charts, I think it would be much more straightforward to show a chart of the "Estimated Fair Price by Year". I guess this is what the blue chart shows, but the way it's presented is confusing.
Thanks for the feedback
Something to consider. At some point, or points, Tesla will upgrade factory Optimus bots. Could they sell used Optimus bots to the public, or to other manufacturers?
Herbert and Cern thank you so much for an amazing presentation! I guess I will keep my stocks a little while longer than 2025 haha :)
Best breakdown ever!
Thats S curve chart is bananas! We are going to be very rich!
I would like to hear what kind of financial plans Cern would consider for TSLA retail shareholders with various share counts 50, 100, 500, 1000, 5000 or 10,000+ shares. I'm in my 40s, own 800+ shares, about 350 in a traditional IRA, 350 in a Roth IRA & 100 in a brokerage account
Thank You Cern !!!!
You need to also put in inflation. 10 years out all the revenue should be up by 20-30%
200%-300% - if you want to inflate away the US federal deficit.
Just found the channel def subbed, thank you for the great information! 10k beginner investor here, is it too late to enter this cycle? or would i see more gain at a lower entry point? if so when you do think the next dip will occur speculatively?
IMHO I think ultimately the auto business of Tesla will be the Robotaxi business but that will take several years…beyond 2030-2035. The robotaxi ramp up will take several years and the expansion worldwide. People still would like to drive their Teslas as they are so much fun and Tesla could still sell them the FSD package meanwhile. The regulators could also play a big role how fast will they allow them (worldwide) to operate. Great show Cern is 👌🏽🙏🏼👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
I think it will be 2000 bucks much sooner than what Cern is predicting.
Thank you so much 🎉🎉
With Elon working with the White House, these projections seems more realistic ever. FSD needs a lot of approvals, Chinese EV tariffs ... all need US government. Another things is, we'd seen Elon diplomacy, and that's necessary. When Elon was working on Shanghai factory, Li was the party boss and now he's the PM of China. China dominates solar panels in the world, and Tesla Energy would need this.
Absolutely superb comprehensive breakdown.
Re SOI - I would argue this would likely fall or at the very least plateau.
As when you're reaching lofty heights of FCF they will struggle to find a home for all that cash. Share buybacks will be inevitable come 2030 latest.
Yes, dividends and stock buybacks will only increase the share price
@@CernBasherSorry, I meant in regards to your slide of increasing SOI. May do the opposite or be a negligible increase due to FCF.
@@HAL9000_ICantDoThat Yes - new share issuance to employees/Elon should be offset by lots of FCF to buyback stock - which will likely cause a drop in shares outstanding at some point. Just being conservative.
Could you do similar projection for NVDIA?
Are all these companies under the tesla stock?
Thanks a lot trillion$ information and the best analyzing ever….
Optimus can be sent to Mars to create a human-friendly environment
Cern has revealed what many 'Tesla Opimist' are inviting people to pay for (a long term evaluation- both Bull, moderate and Bear case) in a simple to understand method.
Admittedly, I have not 'subscribed' to said evaluations, but am convinced that those whom have required compensation for such info would largely agree that this module is at least close to their own evaluation.
Thank you, Cern, for divulging your module freely, and giving investors something tangible to consider, which is largely optimistic.
I know you will receive a lot of pushback on this by those who deem any real 'value' in Tesla, and I trust you are prepared to 'produce the reciepts'. True, we do not know what the future holds, but anyone investing in any company should, at very least, look at past performance (not time lines) to make a sound decision.
Yes, I’m happy to discuss my modeling approach with all whom wish to challenge it.
The reason Tesla is so undervalued is that 90% of the industry believe the ONLY, ONLY, ONLY thing that matters is past results, and based on that one or two quarters projected forward. That is why Wall Street consensus says Tesla is worth 200 or something like that. There are lots of other videos analysing Tesla's results - normally just past release of the results. This video is all about projecting forward the value of businesses that have not yet earned any revenue.
@@michaelnurse9089 Yes, it takes a little courage to see things that have never existed before.
What happens when roboTaxi's are driving around dropping off Optimus robots to do "useful work". Things like, house work. From taking care of the kids, painting your house, wall mounting TVs, to helping grandma. Tesla semi's delivering merchandise with Optimus bots to stock the shelves? All provided as a service. Practically all human labor unseen by the customer will be a service provided by Tesla. For better or worse, things will get wild. And its only 5-10 years away.
What many don't appreciate is that millions of robots are already in use around the world. However, they generally can only do one function, e.g. weld cars on an assembly line. When the need changes the welder cannot change -- so we tend to think of these as robotic machines rather than robots. (Just as Elon has to remind us that FSD cars are really robots on wheels.) But humanoid AI robots will ultimately be able to switch to any task a human can do whenever needed and instantly learn even more jobs from other robots: plumber, electrician, mechanic, baby sitter, security, search and rescue... I want one.
Amazing video. Thank you so much!!!
Thinking the future is only a robotaxi future is a city living myopia.
So much for my "Ostrich-Burger" business 😊
Dunno. When nobody needs needs to work to survive then we will all focus on our diet so much more. Ostrich burgers will be in demand. Make sure you use bots for labour though...
@@michaelnurse9089 👍
Valuations are sandbagged. I’d say they are on the lower side of fair value in a bear market. Expect higher in a bull and fair price
As of 2024 and using rough numbers the world has approx 900 trillion in wealth (bonds, real estate, stocks, M1,M2 supplies etc) + derivatives market (murky area) ..I’m not smart enough to know how big that number could be in 2035….however, your base case has Tesla in 2035 being worth 15% of today’s current world wealth …btw, this isn’t an attack…what I do suspect that if that’s true, then something truly profound has shifted and values of everything else are also probably blown out of the water in various ways…that or we live in a world where 1 company just dominates so completely that it might be a world we should be wary of…btw, I’m balls deep into Tesla and am thrilled for the ride to come.
I did the same thought experiment - you have to subtract debt - in which case it would be more like 25%. Similar results on GDP. This is realistic if they can do it. Imagine voters in every country want robots outright banned and it does not happen. Imagine there is an unsolvable technological problem we cannot solve. Personally, I have invested every last cent into it as I cannot imagine it not working. Even if it fails and Tesla must sell cars/energy I still get my money back - or at worst half of it.
I don’t think Robotix should be modeled so far out. I really think drones are going to cut into Robotix revenue a lot unless Tesla starts offering drone transportation service because the quickest way to get someplace is in a straight line.
Good point. Robotaxi could also hurt short-haul air travel. And Robotrucking will hurt trains. So there’s plenty of opportunity for robotaxi to eat other markets!
This is excellent. Cern is my new favorite. Herbert is obviously my all time favorite!!
I suspect AI inference could grow even quicker than Optimus, but where we are now makes it much more speculative. We should get a better idea within the next 5 years.
The thing is - what would it be used for? The only market I can think of is powering LLMs. And it would be much lower latency than Nvidia GPUs in a server farm, so it would have to be some kind of 2nd grade LLM or one that takes an hour to answer.
@ People have been saying the same about new innovations for centuries. The most obvious recent example being smartphones.
This is why nobody wanted to say the real value out loud people throw rocks at things they can’t wrap their head around you’re messing up their world view
Thanks for sharing this. A completely rational and sensible analysis. This is a valuable presentation for anyone who is forward looking, THANK YOU !
I didn't quite understood which of the categories the FSD revenue fell into in this analysis. It is clear to me that they are not included under "service & other" nor under "AI Interface" since in my humble opinion the FSD should generate huge profits because it is a software sale that has a very large marginal profit with a large sales potential from monthly subscriptions and one-time purchases.
I included FSD sales/subscriptions in Autos.
I’m a Tesla bull and think the stock will grow significantly over the next few years, however I don’t agree that Optimus will be as big as Cern thinks. I don’t see Optimus as having much utility in a consumer/home setting. The $25k car was not even mentioned, which I think will cause the stock to explode. However, I hope he is right and I am wrong.
Are you kidding? Do all the household chores, cook the food, repairs and maintenance - and when you are finished go to the neighbours and do the same for a payment.