Negative Oil Prices: Explained
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- Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
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Earlier this week we've started seeing articles noting that oil prices have now gone into the negatives (meaning investors are paying to give away their oil).
What is going on here? How does this make sense?
As always with these weird and wonderful things, it's all basic economics. And to properly understand this, we're going to need to look at 3 things: Negative value items, the 2020 oil market, and how oil is actually sold!
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📚 Want to learn more about oil? We recommend reading "Oil 101", by Morgan Downey
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#OilMarket #Recession #Economics
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Sources & Citations -
Lee, K., Ni, S., and Ratti, R.A., 1995. Oil shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of price variability. The Energy Journal.
Pirrong, C., 2011. The economics of central clearing: theory and practice.
Guay, W., and Kothari, S.P., 2003. How much do firms hedge with derivatives?. Journal of financial economics
Pirrong, C., 2009. The economics of clearing in derivatives markets: Netting, asymmetric information, and the sharing of default risks through a central counterparty. Asymmetric Information, and the Sharing of Default Risks Through a Central Counterparty
Articles -
- nytimes.com/article/negative-oil-prices-facts-history.html
- forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/04/21/heres-what-negative-oil-prices-really-mean/#2c19d87a5a85
- barrons.com/articles/negative-oil-prices-from-the-folks-who-brought-you-the-financial-crisis-51587549601
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When is the Economics Explained Basic Universal Likes Rolling out?
It's been a hard quarentine, you know?
Pls make a video about the african union
66
@@mapichan5169 a
*The world is in for a crude awakening*
Ha! mah man
Well I woke up with a greasy feeling
You’re slick
😂 😂 😂
@@VocalMabiMaple and I m getting negative thoughts about the news 😅
Last time I was this early we were predicting Peak Oil.
nice way to avoid spam comments
O o f
bruh
#BurnsLikeAMolotov
Lol
Gotta love these stock footage, 11:26 the pen doesn't even touch the paper lol
Get a load of 8:08. They can't actually tug on the tp roll because it'll break, so they look like they're playing with it
also 10:33
also at 19:06
Or at 5:56, when he says "hiccup" but the video clearly shows a car's suspension fully absorbing the shcok of the speed bump.
Stock footage is the best.
The only way I can understand this:
-i have too much, running out of space, take it for free
-no, I have enough, and it takes resources to pick it up
- I'll pay your travel costs
-okay
Mostly, they agreed on a price weeks or maybe months ago, and suddenly that price is total bullshit, and to make it worse, they agreed, if they cannot sell the stuff, they have to store it, and suddenly nobody wants it. It is the filling up of a pipeline. In the case of oil, sometimes even a literal pipeline. And our current economy made the pipeline sensible with much longer than wider, so to make a balanced trade, you need to know weeks or months before the amount of demand, to create the supply in time, but in two months, our demand plummeted like a rock, probably the greatest oil demand reduction pretty much ever, and the pipeline is filling up with the speed of the expected demand of two month ago. Our storage capacity is also limited, since it will go bad, quickly.
The really important part is that the drilling companies have not incentive to stop producing more crude oil because they get paid the prices agreed upon before the covid 19 crisis and that the other end of those contracts need somewhere to store all that oil they get delivered.
thanks for saving me 20 mins
Its like this - the speculator/investor buys a future contract for deliver of x amount of oil at a future date for a set price. He never intends to take delivery of the oil, but just wants to profit from a rise in the price of oil so he can onsell his contract to someone who actually wants delivery. If the price of oil fell a bit he can still sell the contract at a small loss. But in this case a lot of speculators had bet on oil going higher and all wanted to sell their contracts at once. The buyers kept dropping the price they would be willing to pay - then realising that there is no storage for the oil, they also did not want it - so the price went negative - you had to pay the buyer to take the oil. Apparently you must take delivery if you hold the contract, you cannot refuse it, so it becomes a problem that is going to cost you to make it go away; as it did in this case of negative valuations.
You forgot to add the following after the travel cost:
-no, It also takes resources to store it
- I’ll pay your travel costs AND storage costs
- okay
like how you silently diss about the diamond pricing industry...
I hate the diamond industry
@@lamarnash2439 yup. all bloody scammers
Wait, where and when?
@@AR15ORIGINAL 18:33
Anyone who buys into is an idiot who don’t have any balls to make their own decision
EE:"Russia is not part of OPEC"
EE: * shows EU building *
These never get old xD
EE: Mr. Worldwide
OPEC is based in Vienna, Austria.
@@artman7780 Holy shit, you're right....Why?
@@Seth9809 According to Wikipedia, the Arab countries wanted it based in an Arab country but Venezuela wanted it in a neutral location. OPEC went to Switzerland but then moved to Austria.
Can you do a The Economics of Economics Explained explained?
That would take a whole college degree to understand lol
Rasmus Holmgaard Nielsen the world is not ready yet
hehehehe rofl
Meta asf 😂
The economics of economics explained explained
"There are people that like taking risks"
*zooms in on chicago*
You're not wrong!
Vegas?
Ashley Clarke no
This channel seems to be the world`s whole demand of stock footage.
Some people on the Moscow Trade Market literally made a trillion ruble loss on that day with no other money left.
WOW
Tho what is one Trillion Russian ruble 15 Million?
They pretty much killing the oligarchs holding the large share of the market in Russia.
@@cookiecola5852 13 billion USD if that's a serious question. A trillion is a million x million. Only countries with massive inflation (like Zimbabwe) should have currencies that weak.
Too big to fall, they said...
ive been doing the math to see how many barrels will fit in my yard
@@mr.boomguy the results? Not enough. D:
I'm sure your neighbors would be thrilled too.
OMG I ordered 3000 barrels and they're on it's way to my house.
You are not going to get actual barrels, but you will get a tanker truck on your doorstep with a driver expecting you to tell them were to pump the oil.
@@jascrandom9855 The tanker truck won't even come you your doorstep, you'll have to go to Cushing Oklahoma to pick it up
We live in days where sanitizer is more expensive than oil , lol
I’m finally living in days which will be valuable as history in future
I was waiting for this video , thanks
We live in a days where ink printer is far more expensive then blood
We live in a world where bottled water is more expensive than beer!
I understand the joke, but hand sanitizer has always been more expensive than oil. A gallon of hand sanitizer, before the whole rona, would cost about $15. Oil hasn't gone past $4 in years.
I’m very happy to be living in history (I’m a history geek), but I am not happy that these are the days people will look back and say, “Let’s not repeat what they did.”
Clark Anzara
Absolutely true
This channel makes you understand economics so well while critisizing it so hard. Absolutely fantastic.
This is why Behavioral Economics should be taught in universities everywhere in the world.
> go to local gas station with zero dollars
> ask for 200 gallons
> walk out of store with $1000
This is nice.
This channel is honestly getting better by the day. Absolutely amazing!
as a texan I saw the pool at the beginning and said audibly "You're god dammed right its a real thing"
Loved the video. Topic idea: today’s monopolies
But US government, i dont have a monopoly on shipping! Why? Oh... because im a web services company!
Disney.
Crony Capitalism.
Venezuela's economy
Disney
Amazon
Unilever
Monsanto
Luxottica
Google and Facebook
to add to the confusion: Sweden have/does buy garbage from Norway
What about this: The Netherlands buying garbage of the British and the Napolitan mafia or Poland just burning everyone's trash.
And sweden has exported the garbage to south asian countries.
@@MartinNew14 Rather the ash that goes into groundfill
Classic way to make money in Sim City
U mean garbage?
this video has some sick writing and editing! the setup at 4:10 and then the payoff at 14:10?
lmao I love this channel
"This is crude oil" shows soy sauce
I'm starting to think some of these shots might be stock footage.
It looks like 100% of this channel is stick footage 😂
They are hilarious. Must be on purpose.
I'm curious how stock footage are made and how EE got their hands on them.
There are sites that allow you to make youtube videos of stock footage without how to download the footage. Instead, you edit your video on there website. You just upload a speech, and search and select footage. When done, you click done button and they render the video for you, and from there. You didnt even have to use an editing software
@@Repz98 lol i thought its an AI software speech recognition then automatic video matching
2:10, I appreciate the Malaysian market clip
18:35 who hurt you Economics man.
he's referencing the scam that is the diamond market
De Beers hurt him
Aussie women are huge liabilities
Negative value item is not strange at all
Remember the line in The Big Short
"I got a negative carry of 20million a month"
Yes, but he was the one buying Credit Default Swaps, i.e. insurance contracts. Insurance isn't a negative value item for the insurance company (until the number of claims that have to be paid multiplied by the dollar amount of those claims is larger than the money earned on premiums for insuring the risk).
Yeah, as in his monthly premium. The bank is selling the security in that sense. They weren't paying him to hold the option
"This was kind of the equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot to win an argument over who ran the slowest."
This made my day
Last time I was this early Economics Explained was Economics Explaining
💩 ruclips.net/video/ps6YEbSTUkE/видео.html
ok.
20 years ago, people played Fallout. A game about nuclear apocalypse triggered by lack of oil. Who would have known back then that negative oil prices would cause a crisis.
"What do you mean too much oil?" - Environmental activists from the 80's.
An economic crisis caused negative oil prices, not the other way around.
*Delmini* Coved-19 has caused a glut of oil due to some Industry shut downs, travel bans on International and Domestic Air routes, and even to domestic travel in vehicles for holidays away. The irony is of course, is just when one is well able to afford filling the family car, we're told to stay home. What I cannot understand, is all these headlines bemoaning the fact that the World is running short of where to store the bloody oil. Maybe I'm missing something, but is there some logical reason why we cannot shut down the wells pumping it out?. HELLO!, time to turn off the taps baby, and go home...
@@filippkhan3935 Are you forgetting how Russia and Saudi Arabia went ballistic on their oil production? This is a two-faced crisis, one caused by the kyogre attack (Covid) and the other is the direct result of the pyrrhic fight between the two aforementioned powers in the oil market.
@@davidhamilton506 There is a logical reason though. Russia and Saudi Arabia are going ham on each other since their negotiations broke down. The rest of the world may shut their wells but that would result in an overdependence (as if the previous state of affairs isn't bad enough) on one or both powers. They (the two nations) won't cut their production because that's their weapon against each other and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept ramping up output even more until one or both comes crashing down.
You mentioned 'very poor underlying fundamentals' of the economy, could you expand on that ?
That would require either a five second video or a six part hour long series.
I would guess that it's non-participants participating in the market (people not in the oil industry buying and selling oil contracts without the physical capability to fulfill those contracts) and removing pricing incentives from oil producers. When oil exports from Russia and OPEC spiked, the most expensive oil producers (many of whom are American producers) should have shut down their wells immediately. Instead they kept on pumping because they had a contract to fill, despite there being no demand for the oil they were contractually required to produce.
Last time I was this early, people said the economy would grow forever
💩 ruclips.net/video/ps6YEbSTUkE/видео.html
Long term it will
Tyler Chamberlain yeah until the planet is dead
I love this Channel. I learn so much about current global economic events. I enjoyed this longer video format with more economic and financial terms for me to further my research. Keep up the great work and congrats on your seemingly exponential channel growth in recent months!
I just had a moment of clarity thanks to this video I live near the sea, and for the past couple of days I've seen an Oil Tanker anchored somewhat far from the coast and I was curious as why a Tanker that have tights schedules to delivery this product been anchored doing nothing for days, now I know. Thanks EE, great video.
Oil: drops to negatives
US soldiers: *ILL TAKE YOUR ENTIRE STOCK*
Wow, This is really interesting!Thanks!
My pleasure! Glad you enjoyed :)
what I love about your channel is that it's a sequence of irrelevant stock footage but with great audio content attached and so i can treat it like a podcast of sort :)
Thank you for making this video so quick! Really informative.
Thanks for helping us understand this interesting chapter in world history.
7:06 That silver car created a phantom traffic jam
I was literally asking about this yesterday to a friend. Thanks!
As always, your work is great and highly informative. Keep up the great work.
The more I learn about economics, the more I realize it's been designed by clowns.
PS: this video was really very funny
Then you learned nothing. The markets are why you have a modern life, and aren't living in a dirt-floor cabin.
It isn't designed so much as it is created by the actions of several trillion greedy algorithms and maybe a few thousand non-greedy ones.
Slappy he’s one of those money is the root of evil people. If it’s so bad how do you get a haircut a house and a car. Stupid hippie.
@@slappy8941 I don't think he referred to the entirety of the last 6000 years of economic developmnent when he said that :
They are not designed at all, they came to be by circumstance.
Designed economic systems, like Communism, tend to fall flat on their face because it is pretty mutch impossible to predict what the future will look like.
17:15 "Some very poor underlying fundamentals." That is a phrase that is crying out for careful, thoughtful, detailed elucidation. This is, of course, a request for explanation of something akin to 'life, the Universe and everything,' so give it an hour or two.
Thanks for making these videos! Really insightful and enjoyable to watch
Great video, I appreciate you giving all the surrounding context.
Get paid for taking oil
Dump oil on ducks
Invest in Dawn dish soap
Profit
You mad man
The price of oil doesn't go negative. It's the price of a futures contract that does. And all futures contracts are simply gambling.
That's not true. If futures did not exist, the price of cereal would fluctuate day to day depending on what the corn sellers feel like selling the price at that day. Futures help stabilize prices by locking them in ahead of time
fallout560 the problem is that they can be trade , resale, bet on. Affectively turn them into casino chip.
Mate , your explanations are crystal clear and hatsoff to thinking of those examples
The variety and abundance of stock video clips in these videos is fascinating.
I believe oil will never be as high as it was a few years ago. At least not in the next 1-2 decades.
fix they want price below shale gas and nuclear energy ... so price never cross 60$
In today's world you never know what is going to happen tomorrow
Donald Trump hits Iran with someone missiles
Crude at $100😅
@@shivamshahorignal I dont think so. Every commodities will always have its peak then they started falling off the drain. Just 200 years ago, Tin was king. Now its nothing. With more going into hybrid technology. My bet is Oil is not going to be king anymore.
not true. we arent in the renewable energy age. as soon as this is over price of oil will go back to normal.
If anything restarts it, it will be increased space travel
In the ending when you said "price gouging like good old days" I laughed my ass off
You are so quick on these topics. Thankss ❤️
I like how you blend visual stimuli with your storytelling skill of verbalizing. Neat
Last time I was this early Econocmics Explained was still good.......
now you're fing amazing mate!
As soon as the economy reopens and I can open up my business again, I'm joining your patreon. This channel is Gold.
Great video! Just a minor suggestion:
You could have mentioned the benchmarks WTI and Brent used to price crude oil worldwide and that the price of WTI contracts for May 2020 went negative. Brent stayed around $20/barrel and so did the WTI contracts for June.
Thanks!
I love how there is already stock footage of a toilet paper fight.
I can't imagine hows Venezuela doing
America: "Doctor Venezuela, now might be a good time for you to go into crisis"
Venezuela: "That's my secret cap, I'm always in crisis"
@@bluemountain4181 So fucking true lmao. Permanent crisis since 2013 nonstop.
Venezuela has no right to be in a crisis with the amount of petroleum under their lands, shitty government politics, with people who would rather leave for Colombia than fight for their country.
Tries piracy. Clash between its patrol boat and unarmed German passenger vessel ended up with sunk patrol boat.
(Reality is crazier than fiction)
@@quisqueyanguy120 lol poor venezuela still doesn't know who's president. Us Americans thought we had it bad, but we pretty much figured things out after several weeks.
Very beautiful made and explained videos. Keep up the good work 👍
Finally, an explanation that makes sense to me! Thank you.
Thank you for the video. As always I found it very interesting, but I have an issue regarding the second part of the video (Pump and Dump).
Most articles I read indicate that there were three major actors who contributed to situation on the oil market: Russia, OPEC and the US.
Summarily put, what I read was that US producers pumped massive amount of oil to have the US dominate the market. The OPEC and Russia refused to stand down, and increased production in a defensive move. The increase in production led to the fall of prices, and ultimately the negative price situation when the production war met the virus.
So why did you not mention the US at all in your video ? Why was everything pegged on Russia and the OPEC ? I hope I understood something wrong, because I am confused and questioning the reliability of information on your channel.
This is not widely reported in the media, but you are correct the US has been dumping since February 2017 as per US government data: www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrexus2&f=m
@@Obscurai nice.
It makes a lot of sense since it’s reported here in the UK that it’s specifically Texan Oil that’s reached Negative pricing. Texan oil primarily travels via pipelines and the main buyer is the US.
Russian and Saudi oil doesn’t have this problem since they can be transported to net importer countries as usual. Texan oil doesn’t get exported as much so it costs to transport it thus the negative price
What you are referring to is the 2014 dip in oil prices. As US shale companies started producing more and as hydraulic fracturing became more profitable, US output rose significantly. Saudi decided to maintain market share instead of cutting supply to maintain price as it often does. This tanked oil prices from over 100$/bbl to 30$/bbl WTI. Ultimately this is a battle that Saudi backed down on which led to the movement back to 60$ oil in the previous years.
Coronavirus presented itself as a prime opportunity to try to harm US production again. This downturn was specifically decided by Saudi and Russia.
www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart
Ancient Greece: *exists*
Economics Explained: THIS IS
Awesome how you make it so clear, great job
Wow this was so well explained! You just got a new subscriber
Wouldn’t this be a perfect time for countries like the US with a strategic oil reserve to add to it?
Yes I heard that they are filling the tanks
Lewis Stockett Let the US save the 900,000 patients first though
They already did at 11$
@Thomas hmmmm interesting
Us reserve filled to capacity already.
8:55 so I should be able to get someone to pay me $160 to take a barrel of petroleum off their hands 🤔
Theoretically yes, but good luck storing it and refining it. :)
Lol, when he said petroleum costs roughly 4X what crude does, I thought the same thing... "what does that mean if the price is negative?"
Now you will never get the oil you get the futures position. You settle it in cash no one uses futures to arrange shipment
You're so good at this! I almost understand what you're saying...
Lovely Channel. Learnt alot from this channel. Would u mind talking about the oil, gold (precious metals) and other resources and what their relationship with economics is? Thanks
I’m waiting for weed to get in the negative lol.
I might buy it for an investment
These prices may be a bad thing for oil producers, but I'm loving the low prices!!! Gas is $1.49 where I am.
NoobToob per gallon!????!!?
Nothing's changed that much where I am. more than 4.10€/gallon
@@boterham7144 Yes, per gallon!
@@TuskForce I'm sorry to hear that. Truly.
Properly informative, thank you E.E.
Thanks for the video, you do amazing work
you know something is really wrong when the thing that runs the world has a negative price
yeah it's never a great sign
Lol. It's wonderful time for petrochem corporations and net oil importer nations.
Once the economy's open Oil prices will be as high as never seen before
Thank you for another great explanation. I'm slowly gathering a bunch of questions that I hope are worthy of your thoughts. So sometime soon I'll pop into discord.
Great stuff as always
"Sure, there is fuel to power our caaaaahs..."
NOOOOOOO! YOU CANT JUST PAY US TO BUY OIL! THATS GOING TO RUIN THE ECONOMY! NOOOOOOOOO!
haha oil well go glug glug glug
More like
Russia and OPEC: haha American oil markets go **screams* *of* *the* *damned**
i hear many retail trader in that time ( before price went minus) recommend long OIL, they said that oil will never went to 0 but wow,
Amazing video as always!
I immediately thought of nuclear waste: By sitting on tons of Caesium 137 for example, I would really pay someone to get rid of it.
Search RUclips: health bracelet radioactive testing
They put a piece of radioactive metal inside a bracelet/neckless design for comfort wearing it 24h. It madness. Some conspiracy theory Suggest it's a radioactive waste disposal scheme.
Please add cc please
Great explanation!!! Thank you so much
Great video mate you’re really good at this
Take us back!
It’s rough out here
The fundamental economic assumption of economic man (rational behavior) is in itself irrational😂😂😂😂😂
Yeah, economists make pretty spreadsheets that bear no resemblance to the real world and then use the assumptions in those spreadsheets to trash the world.
The stock footage you used when you mention oil barrels at 11:52 are actually wooden casks for cask aged Port Wine in Porto Portugal ;) Specifically Sandeman cellars Port Wine.
Been waiting for this this video like crazy
Last time I was this early, Russia was still doing Soviet things.
💩 ruclips.net/video/ps6YEbSTUkE/видео.html
Better red than dead
@@USSR413
Typical thinking of a naive resentful kid.
Why can't you just be normal?
Even I saw Dead Stalin Walking on the street.
Can somehow explain how a future contract has value? I mean, if I agree with a person to buy item X for Y amount of money (considering Y is a very fair and average price) then I will have to pay Y amount of money on average. So it shouldn't in general have a market value hovering around $0? (sometimes there are more people who think it will go up, and other times there are more people who think it will go down). So my question is: why is a future contract, on average over time (under normal circumstances) traded for money? Like if I buy the contract for Z amount, I now have to pay both Y and Z!
Tthecreator you dont paid double, once you buy a futures contract, you own it and wait for for the expiry date and exchange
P/F formula
A futures contract is a promise by the seller to let the buyer have a commodity at a set price on a specific date. If on that date the current market price is higher than the contract price, the buyer completes the trade and makes a profit, but if the current market price is lower, then the buyer can choose to let the trade expire worthless, and the seller keeps the premium that the buyer paid to initiate the contract. A buyer may also sell the contract at any time up to the completion date.
@@DuyPham-xd8lp so you mean the price of the contract is the price of the goods, payed at the beginning when the contract is made/sold and then the goods are exchanged later when the contract expires?
Because you believe it will be worth more by the time the boat arrives than what the current owner is willing to sell it for.
This obviously assumes that the current owner thinks he will get a better price by selling to some dumbass derivative trader right now than by holding on to it and selling it later, when the boat arrives.
Thanks for making this vid brah. I know a thing or two about stocks and economic principles but no matter how long I thought about it I didn't really find a feasible solution for negative value apart from intercompany trading and waste disposal of sorts.
Well explained. Thank you very much
Economics of stock footage day 4
hahaha you gonna do this every time ?
Economics Explained until it is done
All I've learned from economics explains is that everything they taught me in school was true, but it's even more complicated in how humans are irrational
Thank you, appreciate your vids.
love your work!
8:52
This is in fact incorrect. Since currently oil prices are negative and petrolium prices are positive, their quotient is negative. Thus it's less than 4.
4x the typical cost
Why do you say American things like gas stations and gallons?? You're an Aussie mate stay Aussie!
Alec Green I think many of the people who listen to his channel are Americans. I’m not sure 🤔
@@Stoneface_ Yeah that probably is the reason, still though..
Because he’s smart and growing his channel... you would rather have 365 million possible people being able to understand and learn what he’s saying the easy way cause most of us are dumb and ignorant. America’s RUclips demographic is unmatchable
Thank u for making this video. I was wondering why
Really interesting video, well explained thanks.