Cascade ordering strategy base on mathematics and statistic
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- Опубликовано: 23 сен 2024
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In this video an innovative strategy base on mathematics and statistics is described, programmed and tested.
This is one of strategies used by one of the most famously successful individual trader in Japan. His nickname is Cis. He calls it "Rectangular Buying". I think he call it rectangular as opposed to pyramid or inverse-pyramid because the same unit number is bought at each step instead of reduced numbers (pyramid) or increased numbers (inverse-pyramid).
I am from Sri lanka. Found this Chanel. Wow i felt ideal match for mind set .I felt you are as my twin brother. Many❤ for your mind set and Thank you very much 🙏
Hello Chia,
I have such a similar strategy that I have already worked out (theoretically) but, in "manual" trading this is incredibly difficult to do. But, with an EA this is a very simple strategy that is quite easy to build, thanks for the fine videos
hi
can u share your email
are u sure?
Wishful thinking not based on reality.. Even in first instance if your TP is 20 and SL is 10 (Pips) that means you going to hit SL 2x times vs hitting your TP, not to mention that you want to multiply this scenario by 3x..? How often and when did you see price moving in 1 direction without any retracement..? Maybe at some NFP news or similar, but not on regular occasion.. This system is dead on arrival.. IMHO..
This is very interesting. So basically it's a scale in strategy with a special trailing stop. Great idea!
I compared this ea with trailing stop ea. Better result with this strategy.
@@pky013 Got some room to breath at times.
this strategy just looks good for R/R above 4. but statistically is rarely possible that price goes up to high R/R without any correction! because a correction simply hit the stop losses. in other hands this strategy make worse the low R/R and convert a R/R=2 to R/R=1, the possibility of low R/R is much higher than the high R/R, so you should revise your mathematics.
I compared this strategy with trailing stop. Better result with this strategy.
12 percent per month and profit factor 2 is just super. The only negative about this video is that it was only tested for one month. It was necessary to test for a year or more.
Hi, please notice that this is not a trading strategy, but exiting technique. you should combine it with a trading strategy to maximize profit.
@@ecoengineering7535 Hi, give us the code please
I am really thankful to you for your such detailed videos. However, requesting you to kindly share the codes before line number 50 .
Hi Chia. I find your aproach as simple as it is extraordinary. Thank you, thank you very much.
Hi Chia, thanks for this video.
By the way, there are many improvements the code needs to work better.
The first BIG issue is that the functions to count open orders and to close the orders are not compatible with other EAs running in the same MT4 because you don't check for the magic number of your specific EA.
So you are going to count and close orders from any other EA or even manually entered orders.
That's very unpolite and it could be very dangerous when you are going to close loosing orders of other EA. You could burn out your account!
You should open orders with a unique magic number and manage only those, not other EA's orders.
The second problem is you never check the opening and closing MT4 standard function result, to be sure the orders are opened and closed correctly. You never check for errors.
The best case is your EA is not able to open orders. The worst case is you EA is not able to close orders when it should.
The third problem is in your custom closing function, when the flag to to close all the orders is true, you call 2 times the mt4 standard function on the same ticket, because they are not mutually exclusive, they are not separated by an "else" block....
One month of backtesting is ridiculous, you have to backtest the EA for 10 years at least, otherwise you are just fooling yourself...and us...😂
Regards...
Would you be willing to help me code my EA, I have all the mathematics sorted already and expressed as equations, I just need someone who knows how to program to code the bot to run on those equations. I can assure you the bot 100% will make money, the system is what I use as a full time trader, I want a but because I can increase the complexity of my equations exponentially, so if you are willing to help me, not only can you keep a version for yourself, but I will keep you up to date with the new iterations of my equations
Hello. I wrote this strategy in C# for the cTrader platform. Test results showed 1.25 ratio on Pound/Dollar but if bot buying from 30 and selling from 70 RSI level. In second place was the SP500 index with the same conditions. All testing results with breakouts of 70 for buy and 30 for sell gave less than 1 Ratio. Perhaps due to the fact that I used a fixed lot and a stop. Please explain how you calculate the required lot and stop for a position at the same time, managing only the risk in the settings
Would you be willing to help me code my EA, I have all the mathematics sorted already and expressed as equations, I just need someone who knows how to program to code the bot to run on those equations. I can assure you the bot 100% will make money, the system is what I use as a full time trader, I want a but because I can increase the complexity of my equations exponentially, so if you are willing to help me, not only can you keep a version for yourself, but I will keep you up to date with the new iterations of my equations
so what is the slippage per trade? Because the market may move so fast that your order will not be able to execute at the desired price
Please combine this strategy with your hedging strategy and make another video. This combination should reduce losses.
I backtested this in the EUR/USD which one of the most volatile market on FX.
The Sharpe Ratio was 3.1 which is amazing.
Hi , Can you share more insights on the backtest?
How long was the backrest?
Thanks for the great video! As we can, all surmise, it is very hard to come up with a new algorithmic trading scheme. Maybe yours is original, as I have not had a chance to look at it in detail. This looks an awful lot like a technique called zone recovery. Note that I think it also goes by a couple of other names as well, probably helps to obscure it from significant attention. Some have likened it to a martingale, strategy, and in some respects it is. However, the difference is that in zone recovery you define a number of levels at which you will simply take your lumps and take the loss. This prevents the potentially exponential explosion of loss as in a real martingale strategy. If anyone has examined it enough to tell for sure whether it is or is not zone recovery, I would love to hear a comment on that. Otherwise, I will be planning to dive into it when I have a chance. Thanks for a great video nonetheless!
You've never heard of anyone adding to winners and trailing their stops? You invented this? Wow man.
for every new order youd have to pay the spread. why wouldnt you just use an auto trailing stop OR edit the order to move your SL and TP up effectively keeping the market boxed in?
I remember seeing a very nice cartoon strip on mathematics and trading. There were four panels. All feature a guy sitting in front of a computer.
Panels
1. Guy says, "I'm an engineer. I'm good with numbers".
2. "The stock market is all about numbers".
3. " i should be able to do well trading the market using math".
4. "Whoops, where did all my money go"?
Of course, quants use mathematics and statistics for trading, but like just about everything around the market, some do well, most don’t.
I compiled the source code and get the message "0 errors, 3 warnings, 9395 msec elapsed, cpu='X64 Regular'",
1. declaration of 'EntryPoint' hides global variable
2. declaration of 'RiskPercent' hides global variable
3. possible loss of data due to type conversion from 'long' to 'int'
The EA give the result with flat line at the graph tab as big as balance value, no trade happened.
Would you advice with this matter please? Thanks in advance.
this is very good sir, I hope you have EA ready for us :)
Hi Chia, thank you for the opportunity for a great training session. I noted you started explaining the code at line 92, is there more to it that is missed and if so could you add it in the description?
Very interesting, need to investigate in this more, will try your code..
What about increase the lotsize also? does that destroy the compounding ?
Wow, 100 thou strat, most normal people barely have $100 to trade! this means a good solid strategy must be able to make consistent profits with as little drawdown and risk of terminal loss as possible, surely the graphs look beautiful, but who's got that kind of cash? no one who actually has 100 thou would probably wanna throw that in the market this way. With me I don't go above $1000 for any strat, and all my strats actually must be able to handle $10, yep ten bucks, and use that to grow the account. That is a sure fire method to ensure that the strategy is fireproof and places trades as accurately as programatically possible. Just my thoughts on this topic. Thanks for the video
Nice presentation! Where can I download this code?
Thanks for the strategy, very helpful for beginners who are still learning like me in the nfc community.
Really nice in-trade management/optimisation strategy. Quick Question: If your starting trade had a Reward/risk ratio of 5:1 say, instead of 2:1, does that affect the Reward/risk ratio of subsequent trades? in other words, if you had a stop loss of 10 pips and target profit for the first trade of 50pips, would your second trade have a stop loss of 2 pips? or 5pips?
Either way, thank you!
This is renko strategy , if you look deep enough , and set brick size accordingly
There are so many undefined and and undeclared functions. I will be helpul to have the link of the code and check your results. Thank you.
Hi, All of them are discussed in this course, please find the link to MQL tutorial below:
ruclips.net/video/4Cv2G0tVm4Q/видео.html
@@ecoengineering7535 Could you show what is written from line 0 to 50, please?
Would you be willing to help me code my EA, I have all the mathematics sorted already and expressed as equations, I just need someone who knows how to program to code the bot to run on those equations. I can assure you the bot 100% will make money, the system is what I use as a full time trader, I want a but because I can increase the complexity of my equations exponentially, so if you are willing to help me, not only can you keep a version for yourself, but I will keep you up to date with the new iterations of my equations
Great video, only problem is if prices keeps going in direction your f***ked & the quality bar is low.
Hi Chia, like others in the comments, I would also like to see the code before line number 50. Would it be possible to please get a video of all the code, or if you are able to share the the files that would be great.
this should be adjusted for the atr to reduce unnecessary stop
I am at a loss to understand. How is this technique different than using trailing stop loss? Unless, we are using the previous gains to increase the size. If we do that only then I can see that we will gain the compounding factor
Trailing stop just moves the single existing positions stop as you go..
A strategy implementing cascading orders adds to the total lots in play. Potentially compounding overall gains. (Only in trending market..)
Kinda like implementing martingale techniques
Have you tested addig on the pullbacks.... Not easy to program. Thank you for sharing a great concept
Videa seems interesting, but as per statistics, it 'll have big drawdown. Lets check with bionamial probability, if all trader win probability is 50% = probability of 4 continues win is only 6.5%. which is less then 10%. But you know probability of 3 and 4 trader will be less then 50%. So in long run , it might not work.
i backtested this strategy over years of historic data. It does not work. If you buy every x pips you need to sell every x pips too. otherwise your results depend on if in the end the price rises. if you buy and sell at the same spot. if price rises 5 pips your short is stopped out and you still have no profit. then you are still dependant on chance. price goes down 10 pips you are also stopped out of your long positioin. will you go back in at your original point? price can go up and down 10 pips many times and stop you out 10 times at the same price. One option is to don't close trades at all till you reached 100 pips profit. and then open a long and a short at this point. but then if price keeps going in one direction (lets say 500 pips up) you are stuck with 5 shorts that you can only close if price goes down by chance. This strategy is garbage.
Not sure you quite understand the technique. You may need to watch the video again. From my understanding of this technique, you won't have long and short open trades at the same time. I advise you watch again.
No. It depends how you calculate each leg
😂😂😂😂
Saved me 22mim thank you
@@ademolaalimi8863 Yes, he did not understand this strategy at all. Apparently he is new to trading.
Amazing!, please do a video on your custom functions, I'd love to see that.
Interesting. So it's basically an alternative to trailing stops
the first example of trading if applied to USDTRY will have made you a millionaire from the past 10yrs, the pair is just going up
think I would be massive loses bcz the market moves in small waves in small and big time frames not vertically as you mentioned in the video and the correction most likely will happen , so It will hit the sl then go to the target especially in currency pairs but maybe works better in doejones and Nasaq or even gold
Thank you for your comment...please try to write the code and back test it... You will see there are some times that it can happen...for example 2 days ago in EURUSD you could catch a huge profit with this strategy.... It is one of my main strategies for several years and I like it.
Hey thanks for the video ! I did watch your other video about similar subject ! Where does this idea come from? Do you have a book or something where you have inspired yourself ?
Hi, I just start to use this technique by myself, I have no book to mention.
What was SL size in pips you kept? 5 pips in a 1Hr TF would most likely end up being stopped in wiggle room…?
Its seem like 30pips
Why do you need a strategy with this approach, could not this be used in a grid bot?
What is the difference between this and a trailing stop loss 5 points behind once your up 20 points? Thanks
Hi Chia, great lesson! can you please explain more in depth about your three user defined options as that looked really interesting.
Mathematical models are only as good as the data used in them!
You've updated the EA, but I cant' find any instructions on the settings. Please help. TIA
Great video, thank you so much!
I'm glad you enjoyed the video! Thank you for watching!
Wow cool, thanks for sharing, but I usually use the unfilled order strategy in the nfc community.
Dear Sir,
I am impressed with your wisdom & your hard work.I request you to backtest this strategy. It is nearly impossible to guess where market would next go but it is much easier to tell where market is less likely to go--and that is where there is mathematical edge & would be easier to code.
You could test the strategy on instruments which have high liquidity & trade around the clock--let us say forex & high volume US indices to start with.All orders are Limit order & orders are entered end of each day based on closing prices(EOD).For Forex pairs end of NY session is END OF DAY
On A given instrument(say Eur/Usd) limit order is placed to buy(or sell) at A distance " D" which is (70% of average daily ATR) away from the closing price EOD.Take profit (TP) & stop loss (SL) distance is 50% of that distance (D)--every order is all complete order on the same ticket.Only one order/day on the instrument.Win or lose--no trader intervention,market decides when take profit or stop loss gets hit.On that instrument orders are entered on both sides, Long & short at the same time.
All open orders get cancelled at the end of that day & new orders are entered based again on end of day new prices.Orders are placed on multiple different currencies to diversify risk(both dollar pairs & cross currencies as well).Risk capital on any instrument is 1% of account equity only.
Rationale--Markets are random but fractal in nature.Distance travelled in a given time span is based on square root of time.TRADING EDGE comes from the fact that from End of day INITIAL price the TP is closer compared to SL & chances of hitting TP are higher than hitting SL--and when TP is hit,then stop loss order gets cancelled right away..If one month option is priced $1--then 4 month option should cost $2.Distance travelled in 4 months is square root of 4.Option premium formulas are not ALLperfect but billions of $$ trade based on that formula & market makers make $$,no matter where the market goes/or does not go.At the money Call & put cost the same--take your pick.
And Thank you
hey what is all this? im getting confuse
Sir, You are A bright man wth wisdom.Markets are random & we do not know her next move.Direction is 50/50 over thousands of episodes with jerky trends at times. AND 5/10 point stop loss(SL) would get triggered many many times with random motions.May be do this video strategy(Yours wisdom) with 20 points SL & 40 points take profit (TP) to start with & when first TP is reached, new order may have SL of 15 points--on and on & on.Please back test this idea.Thank you.@@powerball200
Whoa Nelly. I see 3 maybe 4 problems with this.
1) This assumes that the price is more likely to hit the TP before the SL because the TP is closer. However, this does not consider market direction, momentum, or any kind of news events that could easily move the price to SL.
2 ) Relying solely on ATR for entry, TP, and SL (settings) ignores other important things like trend direction, support and resistance levels, and macro indicators.
3 ) The approach of cancelling all open orders and setting new ones daily may lead to missed opportunities or escaping profitable positions too early. Don't you want to make money - and more of it?
On Rationale -- You hinted at leveraging the fractal nature of markets and the square root law of market movement - like the concept used in option pricing models (ie. Black-Scholes) - however, the simplistic application of these complex theories into a mechanical trading rule greatly oversimplifies market dynamics in my opinion.
I really want to use this strategy but I don't know the whole code. How can I get it?
Can you please show the codes before line 50?
Thank you for sharing the method of optimizing profit. This is very helpful. I wander if you can share any profitable entry techniques? I have tested many so called "high return" methods on RUclips, most if not all, failed miserably. Thank you.
I can see it working well with CPI news where the price continues far in one direction....
It will have a good performance in that situation
Where to get whole code of this strategy from (cant see line 1-50)? I copied it to mt4 editor and cant make it to run. There is lots of errors. I cant include the inputs file to expert. Pls help. Thanks
Hi Chia. Is the code in for this EA available or available for purchase. I would like to use it and run my own testing. Regards. Wayne
I wonder how it works using 1r multiples of tp instead of 2r
HI Chia, I have done extensive testing for different hedging strategies and would like to test this Cascade ordering strategy , how can i get a copy of the EA to test it please or if it is for sale how much is it for.
Kind Regards.
Nabil Magar.
second question, what if you did not rich the first TP in order to move the TP and open the second position? do you simply hit the stop loss and that;s it or do you open other position hoping for the price to close at least at breakeven?
No, This is not hedging strategy and when we hit the stop loss we simply accept it
Imagine how well you would hav3 done on jpy shorts this fast few weeks
The market moves in ranges and may takes many stops until found a profitable trade
This seems like the perfect way to blow an account if you were to factor in slippage, fees, and consistently hitting your sl.
No, this is not hedging or Martingale and if you implement it correctly with algorithm, there is no way to blow your account.
Hello Chia, do you perhaps have this in MT5 or could do a video about it in MT5? I am trying to work on a bot but its not seeming to behave as expected in my MT5 😞
For what markets can you use this ? I dont think itwill work for synthetics because the market is computer controlled and can continually hit your buy and sells until you run out of equity and lose . I have seen someone lose 2.5 thousand dollars trying to use the same strategy
So what happens if the market doesnt go activate the second order, I mean if it keeps going down?
Hi Chia, Thank you very much for the great informational video. I am still learning these scripts. Can you kindly help to share how did you get all those variables in the EA to take inputs for RSI etc... I dont know how to declare all those input variables. I expect those variables have been declared in your Cascade RSI First Wave.mq4 file on top. Can you kindly share how do you do that ? of if you have Github to share the code with community users, that would be great as well. Thanks, Nitin
Input (variable type) (variable name) = (default value);
Example
input int rsiLevel = 70;
Very good idea, I like it so much
Thanx for this! - 🙏 - I coded and tested it, and it is testing pretty fast in MT4 Strategy Tester, which I like very much! - The Entry here is of course a "generic" one but do not miss the point here folks: Cascading orders ("scaling in" into positions) is pretty powerful. Combine this technique with the best entry signal you have, the one which delivers the highest MFE / MAE stats and trades frequently (not only once a month or so), then test it and see for yourself. - Happy Coding! Happy Trading! - 😃 - Thanx once again! - 🙏
Thank you very much for your comment.
You are obsoletely right. This is not a strategy to enter a trade. It is a strategy to close it. Unfortunately some viewer mistakenly think this is a signal to enter a trade.
Hi intresting Strategy, where i find mt4 expert advisor about this strategy?
Can u share the mql4 file?
@channelowner. Can you please tell us how to backtest on mt5? The EA settings are different from your video, in addition when I tested, none of the trades are triggered. Thanks.
please search in channel's play list, we have a full tutorial for MT5 and MQL5.
@@ecoengineering7535 Thanks. I'll do that and get back to you.
Awsome work thanks so much 🙏 i will manually trade this on small account over next month on BCOUSD and see how it goes . Like you said have even 1 trade that reaches full 4x profit and youd have to loose 10 in a row to back to break even . Math will always prevail in a numbers game .
I think Tom Houguard uses this trading strategy all the time.
thanks for the video. please link for the codes
Its working for me on tradetron using it for Nifty
This is indeed an interesting concept. Would you help me to merge this with something else? (And make it 200% more profitable?)
wow cool, if I use the unfilled order strategy taught in the nfc community.
Hi. Excellent channel. Do you mind sharing the xide in txt file or source code. Battling to get it to work as I'm not a coder
Hello could you made video about newton (yes the famous newton with apple) trading strategy base on mathematic
All very good but where is the link to the code you said in the video was provided ?😊
I am making an MQL account and put them there
Where is the link?
I want to try to test it too.
Many thanks.
Nice videos
Hi Chia, I am not a coder, but do you have it in Python? I am using custom built Algo...
hello.. can i test this in tradingview. do you have pinescript available?
Thanks for this. Is there any way I could get the code?
Sr great video can you share the MT4 code?
How would I calculate 1 point for XAUUSD (GOLD)?
Hallo, very interesting strategy, trank you!
Could you give me the Code, since I am Not a programmer?
Do it on 1000 trades minimum, 30 trades has no statistic value.
great thank you, but I cannot find the code??
Hi Chia
That is a brilliant system and as simple as it gets. Can you share the EA or help build an ea for this strategy.
I understand that an order is placed independent of the cascade EA and this will manage the stop loss and take profit once the initial take profit is reached?
Thanks for sharing this idea🙏
dear sir ..nice videos.. can you please make a video on supply and demand zones..marking each zones with rectangles
Are you able to share the source code? Or collab on a EA I made, I wish to implement this cascade to an EA, which i feel would really add value to the logic in mine mql4 EA.
Hi is there anywhere to access the code? I am trying to piece together my own idea but my knowledge of MQL4 is a little rough
I am making a video for the code and share it there
I like this. Can I a get detail info on please?
Any news on this bot strategie ? Looks great
Hi, do you have the mql4 code that can simply be copy/pasted?
Thank you for the video. I learnt a lot from you. Can you share with me your most common includes .
Thank you
Hi
This is exactly the way I trade many months but manually. Is it possible to get this EA from you or the code in a file? Best regards, Richard
How do you account in the spread
Do you have this code in MQL5 ?
Hi, If there is an EA already available, can you share it please?
you can have access to the code through the following video:
ruclips.net/video/3dAs980enns/видео.html
This looks amazing and straightforward. You said this is a technique, my question is what one of your strategies could be paired well with this and combined in one ea besides the RSI overbought/ oversold? Thanks
Trailing stop + DCA
Your superb. Keep it up ❤