How to Trade Stocks (Using Probability & Edge)

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  • Опубликовано: 14 дек 2024

Комментарии • 106

  • @suntouch3r
    @suntouch3r Год назад +11

    4:29 "Each event is completely random. Anything can happen in the short term. Losing streaks and winning streaks are common, but with a large enough sample of trades the EDGE will eventually materialize."

  • @ch3ckm8
    @ch3ckm8 2 года назад +16

    It's not enough to do technical analysis to have win rate advantage. You have to backtest. It's usually because traders never backtest thats why they lose money in the long run. Even though technical analysis is widely used, theres very few who succeed

    • @FinancialWisdom
      @FinancialWisdom  2 года назад +6

      Completely agree, back testing theory has been key to my progress over the years.

    • @q-q-qiah
      @q-q-qiah Год назад

      How many succeed would you say?

    • @kingal89
      @kingal89 Год назад +1

      That goes without saying. Impossible to know win rate of a system without backtesting and forward testing. Completely pointless to trade a system without testing it

    • @fadialkhoury7765
      @fadialkhoury7765 2 месяца назад

      all that you mention is BS ,,, we should just estimate a positive trade expectancy and trade for 100 times

    • @ch3ckm8
      @ch3ckm8 2 месяца назад

      @@fadialkhoury7765 you are the BS. "estimate" my ass

  • @thetrumanshow4791
    @thetrumanshow4791 Год назад +3

    The nearest brick and mortar casino to me is 3 hours and 10 minutes. It is what you would call a "real" casino. They have dozens of roulette tables. The minimum bet at any of those roulette tables is $25 (NOT $5. (Maybe $5 bets 20 years ago?) Assuming you ONLY have $100 to bet, you could place 4 different bets for $25 each. At $25 per spin of the wheel, you could lose your money in about 8 to 10 minutes. Good job!

  • @paulnyagini
    @paulnyagini Год назад +3

    There is the old say the more you bet the more edge you give to the house.and if you cannot spot the sucker at the table then you are probably the one.

  • @chrisbrian433
    @chrisbrian433 2 года назад +54

    This was very informative but newbies still must realize that the market comes with lots of risks and you could potentially lose all. Secondly, what works for A must not necessarily work for B. Always make correct inquiries before putting your money somewhere or better still, get the services of a pro (that way, you give little room for error get tailored investments and save time). Made my first million earlier this year this way. Good luck!

    • @timwest9123
      @timwest9123 2 года назад +4

      facts only

    • @chrisbrian433
      @chrisbrian433 2 года назад +7

      @Rosemarie Luiz Funny enough, I can honestly relate. It's not as easy as it may sound and requires some sacrifices but it is definitely rewarding. I don't know if I am permitted to go into details here, but her name is "Leah Marie Sandock". Was in the news a lot in 2018. You may look her up for more.

    • @queenofkatwe3990
      @queenofkatwe3990 2 года назад +4

      @@chrisbrian433 wow I know this little lady. Once attended a fundraiser she was also in attendance in Vancouver,, Great speaker with a funny accent,, She's American though, I doubt she works with foreigners,,,

    • @thepotter867
      @thepotter867 2 года назад +4

      @@queenofkatwe3990 This right here is the second time I am coming across this name in a week. Came to my school for a program and it was lit and yes, she has a really cute southern accent.

    • @chrisbrian433
      @chrisbrian433 2 года назад +2

      @@queenofkatwe3990 Guess she does. I am neither from there nor do I stay there hahaha.

  • @jb_makesgames2264
    @jb_makesgames2264 2 года назад +4

    Excellent video - Few new traders understand the concepts that you present especially the concept of expectancy. Keep it up!

  • @CatsAndGoodCoffee
    @CatsAndGoodCoffee Год назад +1

    Great video as always.

  • @HnuchhamTraders-fh7tb
    @HnuchhamTraders-fh7tb 5 месяцев назад +1

    9:41 mindblowing

  • @stevek5461
    @stevek5461 Год назад +2

    Great and very informative video. I understand the concept of determining the amount of risk for a trade ( ie. stop loss point) , but how is the amount of reward determined? I don't think an empirical 2:1 , 3:1 etc, for a R:R is practical. Any ideas ? Thanks

  • @williamkz
    @williamkz 2 года назад +8

    Thanks Gareth. Great consolidation of basic principles. I wish I'd paid more attention to statistics at school!

  • @DanielFlores-no9wc
    @DanielFlores-no9wc 2 года назад +2

    Cheers from Panamá 🇵🇦

  • @wmhmw6049
    @wmhmw6049 2 года назад +2

    Hi..I'm a fan of your channel. Great stuff and very educational. One thing i would like to ask for your favor if you could show how to use your monte carlo analysis. I have purchased the spreadsheet but couldn't get the same result as you show in min 5:23.. thanks

  • @siomokof3425
    @siomokof3425 Год назад +1

    6:37

  • @mnzd475
    @mnzd475 2 года назад +1

    One of the best that you have ever made👍

  • @paulmorales390
    @paulmorales390 Год назад +1

    How did you calculate the edge? Because 1 divided by 38 is .02631? I don’t know how you came up with 5.26%

    • @FinancialWisdom
      @FinancialWisdom  Год назад +1

      Hi Paul, no it is the difference between the two, it's a common mistake by many

    • @paulmorales390
      @paulmorales390 Год назад

      @@FinancialWisdom thank you for the help! Love the channel! Thank you for making videos like this because it’s my learning style and you make things simple and easy!

  • @johnw6648
    @johnw6648 2 месяца назад

    reward to risk ratio is not called risk reward ratio. two to one means the reward is 2 x the risk not the other way around

  • @Forex-Academy_fx
    @Forex-Academy_fx Год назад +4

    The problem is when you increase your risk to reward your winrate reduces

  • @SujitDutta
    @SujitDutta 2 года назад +4

    "Probably" see you soon.

  • @Amitkumar-gh7wc
    @Amitkumar-gh7wc 2 года назад +1

    nice video and update my knowledge. Thanks

  • @whoiswho22
    @whoiswho22 2 года назад +3

    Really love your videos and strategy, thank you and keep it up! Btw, some content about dividends for Cashflow purpose coming?

    • @FinancialWisdom
      @FinancialWisdom  2 года назад

      Sure thing!

    • @whoiswho22
      @whoiswho22 2 года назад +1

      @@FinancialWisdom my strategy, thanks also your help, is 2/3 growth stocks/crypto. However I am working right no on putting 1/3 into dividends to generate some Cashflow to pay basic bills and want to start now so it really has some impact in 10+years from now.

    • @evelynm2530
      @evelynm2530 2 года назад

      dividend investing. Wouldn't that involve a buy and hold strategy which is not what he advises

  • @princephilipog1336
    @princephilipog1336 2 года назад +1

    Im a forex trader and this was really good - Nice work!

  • @totalizer4824
    @totalizer4824 5 месяцев назад

    what if i told you there is no edge in choosing RR? what if a high RR automatically sinks the WR and viceversa? what if ?

    • @FinancialWisdom
      @FinancialWisdom  5 месяцев назад

      I would say you were misinformed 😉

    • @totalizer4824
      @totalizer4824 5 месяцев назад

      @@FinancialWisdom what are your arguments ?

    • @totalizer4824
      @totalizer4824 5 месяцев назад

      @@FinancialWisdom I bet you are not a profitable trader.

  • @ciaoatutti11111111
    @ciaoatutti11111111 2 года назад +2

    May I make a suggestion for next video? Stock correlation how to avoid too closely stock make all of your basket.. I personally think there is a big misconception there that lead people to consider shorting the market when it does not go as expected... But I will let you to take care about it! :-)

  • @vikassinha6320
    @vikassinha6320 2 года назад +3

    Thank you! Very educational and informative.
    Question -- Any thoughts/strategies on trading leveraged 3x ETFs?

    • @FinancialWisdom
      @FinancialWisdom  2 года назад

      So long as they are well diversified. Personally I await a minimum 25% correction before averaging into ETF's etc.

  • @BioInsight_Lectures
    @BioInsight_Lectures 2 года назад +2

    Thanks again for the nice video and update my knowledge.

  • @FinancialWisdom
    @FinancialWisdom  2 года назад +2

    My Breakout Scanner - bit.ly/3ea6sl8
    My Forum - www.financialwisdomTV.com/forum
    My Strategy Blueprint - www.financialwisdomtv.com/plans-pricing
    My Brokerage Account (Interactive Brokers) - bit.ly/3UGvn1U
    Trading Simulator - www.financialwisdomtv.com/shop

  • @lakhangangurde190
    @lakhangangurde190 2 года назад +1

    Very very nice video sir 👌..
    I love your video... ❤️

  • @dynamics9000
    @dynamics9000 2 года назад +3

    You can only become truly accomplished at something you love. Don’t make money your goal. Instead, pursue the things you love doing, and then do them so well that people can’t take their eyes off you. --Maya Angelou....

  • @tdb5318
    @tdb5318 2 года назад +1

    Thank you very much for your education!!
    Have a great week.

  • @MARKCRASTO
    @MARKCRASTO 6 месяцев назад

    You keep talking about your personal style, but ended up making 26% returns in the USIC. Odd, very odd.

  • @floxydorathy6611
    @floxydorathy6611 Год назад +63

    What is the best way to profit from the current market, meanwhile I'm still undecided about investing $40k in my stock portfolio to get some dvidends and minimize risk

    • @floxydorathy6611
      @floxydorathy6611 Год назад +1

      Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one

    • @floxydorathy6611
      @floxydorathy6611 Год назад +1

      I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.

  • @johnschenck8497
    @johnschenck8497 2 года назад +1

    RUclips has now added 2 or 3 ads before you can watch a video. C'm on youtube.

  • @titanstrading
    @titanstrading 2 года назад

    great video as always, thanks my friend

  • @FilFinance-x7s
    @FilFinance-x7s 2 года назад +1

    Thanks for the videos.

  • @fatihkayal9021
    @fatihkayal9021 2 года назад

    As always, I clicked the like button before watching the video.Thank you

  • @richardcrown9764
    @richardcrown9764 2 года назад +2

    I make huge profits on my investment since i started trading with a professional broker Mrs Stacie Morgan, her trading strategy are top notch coupled with the little commission she charges on her trade. Thanks so much ma'am♥

    • @benroland3652
      @benroland3652 2 года назад

      With just a thousand bucks. my portfolio is worth much more now within just weeks of trading with her thanks Stacie.

    • @martinthomas9371
      @martinthomas9371 2 года назад

      I'm surprise to see others who trade with Mrs Stacie, i am currently on my 5th trade with her and my portfolio has grown tremendously

    • @felixsizer300
      @felixsizer300 2 года назад

      I thank you for the level-headed financial advice. I started my investment with $3,345 in just a week of trading with her I’ve gotten $7,939 in my portfolio. Thank you Ma'am

    • @anitalawrence2668
      @anitalawrence2668 2 года назад

      Pretty good. please how can i reach this Mrs Stacie? i want to invest i'm in Taiwan

    • @martinthomas9371
      @martinthomas9371 2 года назад

      @@anitalawrence2668 REACH HER ON HER TELEGRAM

  • @johnpark2847
    @johnpark2847 Год назад +1

    Mark Douglas is the only reason as to why you made this video.... And he is an American.....

  • @JanosTerroz
    @JanosTerroz 2 года назад

    Another great video.

  • @Bill0102
    @Bill0102 Год назад

    The understanding in this content is exceptional. A book with akin insights brought a new depth to my life. "Mastering Money Mindfulness" by Benjamin Hawk

  • @ellydavis2066
    @ellydavis2066 2 года назад +1

    Maths.

  • @luisc6335
    @luisc6335 2 года назад +1

    You lose all at roulette because your line is TOO SMALL.

  • @bodhisoha
    @bodhisoha 23 дня назад

    I guess Gann, the world's greatest stock picker, does not agree with you. But you need real wisdom, not mere knowledge, to understand that. Probability is rudimentary mathematics compared to Gann's methods, which were based on superior, wisdom inspired mathematics. What you call an edge, is like a flea's shadow. Probability is materialism/nihilism applied to time.

  • @nisargpatel8891
    @nisargpatel8891 2 года назад +1

    100% loose

  • @brunosilva650
    @brunosilva650 Год назад

    Great video, Jesus Christ saves! John 3:16!!!

  • @watchingyoutalk6539
    @watchingyoutalk6539 5 месяцев назад

    Sorry, but this was the most pointless video I’ve ever watched.

  • @Serenelove520
    @Serenelove520 6 месяцев назад

    This is a lot of bullshit and misconception

  • @gen6523
    @gen6523 2 года назад

    promosm 🤭