Jim Rogers: "Time To Worry" About China's Economic Troubles and Market Overexuberance
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
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Today, we are privileged to welcome Jim Rogers, investing legend and co-founder of the Quantum Fund, which famously returned 4200% over just 10 years.
In this episode, Jim discusses the overexuberance that he believes is ramping up in global markets in 2024. One exception to this trend is China, which is going through a period of “despair” following its real estate bubble.
Jim also mentions why he's investing in countries like Uzbekistan before sharing insights into his long/short investment strategy and the key qualities of a successful investor. Enjoy!
Key Takeaways:
0:06 How to Invest Like Jim Rogers
4:48 Japan's Economic Highs and Lows
9:49 Market Overexuberance Concerns
15:00 China's Real Estate Bubble
20:08 Risks of Escalating Wars
25:28 Economic Troubles Ahead
30:48 Lessons on Successful Investing
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#jimrogers #china #chinaeconomy #uzbekistan #georgesoros #stockmarket #realestate #investing
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Few years back, Jim wanted everyone to go all in on China
Yes, I remember an interview with him a few years ago saying China was ascendant and it was going to be the best investment choice for decades.
@shauna996 I've always respected Jim, but I always felt funny about his views in China. Never thought a centralized command style economy could predict market outcomes.
@@flashfuture27You're correct. China's central command had destroyed and suppressed the economy for a hundred years, but then they reduced their central command control, at first when they allowed "special economic zones", which were free of many government prohibitions and regulations. This is what Jim saw all those years ago.
You’re funny - write before watching video - became victim of click bait
Remember he moved there, tried to learn language. Obviously smart man who was also fooled by the CCP.
Jim Rogers used to be a big cheer leader of Chinese economy.
Yeah, his tune has notably changed a bit.
The biggest
Moved to Hong Kong and had his children learn Chinese.
@@anthonyferris8912 singapore
Boy, Jim has changed his tune a bit after moving to the far east a decade ago, having his kids learn Chinese, thought it was all the future Jim.?
Didnt Jim used to think that China was going to take over as the the strongest economy in the world? Just wondering if he changed his mind on that?
Rarely does Jim Rogers reveal any new insights.
Nothing new here
And he is always vague about his role in the founding of the Quantum Fund with George Soros. I have always wondered why.
Thanks for letting me know. It's always the same old folksy manner of speaking saying buy low and sell high. What genius I tell you.
Lucky people getting old sound like him. Never had anything worthy to contribute.
Only a few US tech stocks are rising. Am I correct?
No timestamps?
It is not a bubble that is the problem, it stills has a property bubble, an asset bubble overall, but it has an economic model problem.
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Should silver behave like gold or copper during a recession?
I love how everyone wants to know how the people like Jim Rogers got wealthy. If people like Jim Rogers told everyone how they did it and everyone followed their paths, how are people like Jim Rogers going to get rich if everyone is doing what they did? Jim Rogers NEEDS people like us to get rich otherwise no one will get rich.
Family secret recipes are only handed down to family.
Some wise man once said” when someone is coming out with a book about how to get rich,everytjing in the book is outdated”…
Markets are by & large a popularity contest.
Good interview
Japan's economy hasn't been contracting because of financial management only, Japan has been able to counteract the effects of a declining population by being one of the world's leaders in advanced automation and technology. Japan remains hughly productive as the global #4(dropping one spot to India only this past month) econy as measured by GDP.
Maybe this time its different.....Jim knows better !
Shouldn't you worry about US economy?
You mean with the highest GDP ever and falling post-Covid inflation?
He was talking about the US’s tech bubble. The video’s title was clickbait.
About how the Tech market is a giant bubble.
He does, but he is not ready to sell short just yet
Why? We don't have industries operating at 30% capacity and a bunch of wasting assets. We don't have empty housing fully price controlled at highest value that is empty and able to house 1.4 to 3 billion people while having the fastest collapsing demography in world. We don't rely on exports to employ our people. We aren't a developing country whose debt profile is as high as an advanced country. We don't have a GDP that doesn't write off bad investments, but collateralized them, increases bad assets by rolling over unpaid interest into next year's loans and have a banking sector whose assets are so bloated. If China wrote off bad investments its economy would shrink 40 to 60% and its assets would disappear. The thing is, you people have told yourselves the wrong story for so long.
The biggest
So, gold & silver bottom before the other markets do?
Good question.
Jim is sane . He is right in how war is started and people don't know how to get out.
Good good.
Mr Jim Rogers 👍
When did this interview take place?
At noon
Why you worry China, you should worry your own country instead, 34T debts, day in day out piling up with no signs of stagnation.
LGFVs are crumbling, Wumao.
He’s lived in Singapore for almost two decades. 🧨
We worry China because China fall apart. America have problems, but small compare to China for examper, there no baby in China.
Is better to save your own skin, rather then worrying about other people.
How does he invest in these developing countries and how does he short them?
🎉🎉
Jim Rogers put his own $ into his investments, unlike GIC/TH. JR has been successful. In contrast SGP's govt has to make up its humongous losses by increasing GST & a host of other charges. PSA, a 100% TH sub tried to sell off its stake in PRC ports which PSA Int. bought in 2005/2006 amounting to US$5.5 BILLION, without success for several months recently. Speaks volumes about the incompetence of LHL/HC management of our reserves........meanwhile US & Japanese stock mkts hit record highs........BUT PRC;s indices suffered huge losses.
How can Japan survive with this level of debt/gdp?
Because of the banks, I think? It runs differently from western nations. If any western nation had that level of debt, it would be worse off than Japan.
@@Theactualclips Can you explain a little?
I believe it's because almost all of the debt is owed to its own citizens and not to foreigners.
@@stevenoliver7120 How would that make a difference?
I can only presume it's a form of MMT which would present the nation's economy as a balance sheet with the private sector (the people) on one side, and the government (owned by the people) on the other side. Entire books have been written on this. I'm not really qualified to explain it.
Jim seems very down these days. He must have lost a shit ton of money from chinas market crash. He really loves china as he made alot of money on the way up. However china never gives up anything of value. Never invest in china unless you're prepared to loose everything you've invested.
May be his young wife bailed on him :)
Such an investor legend ✨️👊✨️
Such a cowboy investor legend ✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️
Could this be a hyoe to scare investors to leave so others can take over? It's been dine before.
Yes, since is likely shorting.
Dont worry about china they are doing fine
lol :))
Why so many people worry about China these days? The worst days were over and the property crisis is easing off now. Things start to resume and people at art spending money again since the beginning of 2024. Why I know cos I live here😅
@@DerDoplol what mf?
I am in China over 15 years.. Everything is fine here as you just mentioned.
@@user-ex9je5fm5e lol again :)))
Despite negative comments I see posted, IMO Jim Rogers'discussion appears to be fair. He touches on the umportance of timing investments, the state of the Dollar, economic bubbles and a lot more based on his life experience. Everything can be debatable and open fo discussion but aren't particularly radical.
Is the current environment of 'easing while tightening' or fiscal stimulus with restrictive fed rates a new thing? It would seem to explain the above expectation growth numbers and delayed recession. Someone posited that it has been the illegal immigrants who are boosting our economy above expectations; I like that one.
If the Fed and Treasury are in the process of inflating us out of our fiscal deficit, what would that look like in terms of magnitude, meaning how long and what levels of inflation would be necessary to accomplish this.
Jim was in the right place at the right time.
Downturn is not bad. Everything should slow down.
jim rogers howv times have changed when mr rogers was the Chinese optimist
Rogers and co. always talk up their own book.
@25:00 he dodges the AI question twice
Think about it, he is not willing to discount the idea, that workers might be able to reduce their work week to three days due to productivity gains
Any idea excessive liquidity is driving rhe USA econimy rise is tupid and uninformed. The Fed announced over 6 minths ago it had sucked out all the liquidity unjected into the economy due to Pandemic aid. Current performance is entirely the strength of the US and not due to any manipulation or trickery.
There is some concern about the debt payments that will become due related to the increase un the National Debt but for know is considered manageable as ling as the current demand for US sovereign debt remains high and hopefully interest rates will decreae soon. But conditions would have to radically change for the current US financial strategy to change significantly.
He’s definitely not excited at really answering questions in this interview…
If someone like Rogers, a Chinese economic apologist, is worried... things must be serious
Seems like the host has no idea how to ask great questions in front of one old legend of Wall Street.😅
Home boy , you should worry about US economy first, China has been around for five thousand years !!!!! They will out do everybody.
He was talking about the US’s tech bubble. The video’s title was clickbait.
About how the Tech market is a giant bubble.
Been around for 5,000 years yet doesn't have the gdp of the USA a country that is only 250 years old and has a population less than 1/3 of China.
China is crashing its obvious.
China yes, but Chinese people have been eating dirt for large stretches.
Now they can just take a plane to Mexico and cross the border
It's easy to succeed when you have the entire US manufacturing sector literally boxed up and shipped to China for free to employ their massive cheap labor force. Then, give them free shipping and tariff free open access to the US. Now that this gravy train has run dry, seems like they're trying to find people to sell stuff to.
China has had many horrific cycles. Oh yeah, remember CCP has tried to destroy cultural past--remember the great leap forward? Civil wars? Invasions? Han genocide wars?
Just we should buy Cardano ADA or even better Midnight privacy thing once it comes out in the beginning of the next year, or even privacy COTI right now.
Yes, privacy COTI now and Midnight in Q1 in 2025.
Those are highly sure things.
Bad business plan to threaten your biggest trading partner.
These questions are terrible.
Is this anew interview, or a recycled interview from long ago?
How do US people sleep?😢
Jim has been a doomsday preacher for the last 2 decades amd yet the U.S.A stock market kept going highet and mightier!
The stock market is not the real economy.
Yes, he is a permabear. He made his money via shorting. Looks like he lost some money in the past couple of years on shorting.
Contrarily, Rodgers is always right. He valuess things in gold, not US dollars...
That doesn't make him a liar. After all there's nothing about fiat being real. Just a casino with magic rules.
He will eventually be right someday
Now the joker is crying for China..dissing growth in India and making ppl miss out on next growth engine
I've got out NOTHING from the vid.
"Stocks don't go up forever"--pan to Opto looking like someone stole his binky.
That’s what I’ve been saying. The tech market is a bubble. For example, Apple makes around 90 billion every year (net). But it’s worth 2.67 trillion. Meaning it would take close to 30 years to actually make its valuation. But then we have Saudi aramco worth about 2.017 trillion, but makes over 350 billion every year. Meaning it would take around 5 years to make back the valuation.
I personally feel like the tech market is hyped especially in the US, it makes too little for its valuation. It’s a bubble.
(Although most people just take loans against their stocks. Which they have to pay back). My point is, it’s a bubble.
Jim, admit you're wrong about China and keep quiet from now on.
Best comment so far.
Is this another China collapsing discussion 🙄
China despair???? Isn't the whole world in despair? Why China? This kind of headline of China negativity doesn't work anymore.
But only China is in a deflationary spiral.
He mentions their reliance on real estate. What's your opinion?
I remember he was the biggest china bull EVER. moved there, had his kids learn the language etc. I just he wasted decades on that disaster of a call, and the impact on his life surely negative.
divine central authority unity with substantive human rights choice for international law overcome political government separation from God
Hey jim say hello to your boss George Soros.
Silver could go down? Please retire
this guy is a forever China bull. Don't know how he can do that
Paid to tell untruths and half truths.
@@gusdeng6082 Uncle Sam paid him?
(He's) - A - (Multi - Billionaire) - 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯 - (He's) - Been - (Successful) - ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ -
@@milexiangyangli5666does not need the money.
@@fredfrond6148 - (Bingo) - 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯 - (The - Reason) - (He) - is - (Telling - It) - Like - (It - is) - ✋️✋️✋️✋️✋️ -
Jim is getting old
Not much substance.
What bullshit.....
This is painful viewing.
This guy doesn't provide any insight of the world's economy. Just rumor.
Hey, you wanna worry? That should take up some of your meaningless lifetime.
Boring ... no real Information... nothing that we dont know
Rodgers is a dinasour and has no wisdom to share. What adore he has become.
Rogers looks grumpy here. Not sure why he is on this podcast. It appears he is no longer a China bull, and has shorted some stocks in both US and China. Uzbekistan is not for us mortals. I invest in China only if there are ADRs available. There is no such thing for us in Uzbekistan.
He knew that and sold his stocks...he was bullish a few months back only to sell his stocks
He was named a Chinese expert, obviously he doesn't know much.
This guy told you to ditch thr US equity market and go all in on China about 20-30 years ago. Over that span, his recommendation under performed at about 1 to 10 ratio. So his "success" is really quite a stretch of the truth.
Gold has done fantastically.
@@sulavaca look at the 20 year history, not just last year
Japan = 80s 90d relic.