They extended that problem by making property ownership one of the only viable investments for common people. That increased demand of housing, so they just kept on building even when they were far past the point of saturation. That led to the current problems we might see now, or maybe they will find some clever accounting to extend the problem even further, but it will come due eventually.
One thing people don't realise is China is still in the process of building new satellite town homes next to her major cities in anticipation of rural folks migration ( young people)to the cities . The satellite towns help to decongest the major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Hongkong . Data Reference from book : China Dream.
they can't, but the crash like all crashes, happens slowly at first then all at once. if ponzi schemes failed on day one, there would be no ponzi schemes, there are ponzi schemes, therefore it takes time, the bigger the scheme, the longer the time
@@JamesCoffey It just gets a bit scary when the people running that show also control one of the largest peacetime armed forces by manpower in human history.
@@Plainsburner it's not scary, they can't go anywhere, no blue water navy, if they could then why haven't they taken Taiwan already? And that's not even a blue water operation. Not saying they won't try, but they will fail, they cannot secure the supply of energy and food of which they are a net importer.
I have much respect for Patrick's ability to keep l from giving anything close to financial advice no matter how much Andrew is fishing for even vague statements à la "I see a lot of potential in Indonesia". I wish everyone had that kind of integrity
Indonesian here, run far far away from any Indon market; our country is losing out to the fericious rebels. Which is bad, really bad since a lot of Indonesia's construction is fueled by the exploitation of Papua. On top of that Islamism is on the rise, Indonesia had never been a tolerant country like it loves pretend to be. But recently various Daesh and Al Qaeda/Haqani linked groups are becoming more and more popular. The cherry on top is the legalized thugs known as "ormas" in Indonesia who will siphon the shit out of any foreign or local bussiness venture via forced"donation" There's a reason why middle-uppler claaa Kaffirs like me, especially the opressed eastern Indonesians prefer to keep our wealth "portable". Dont be a sucker.
The contexts is more important then the delivery. Sounding consistently is a matter of conditioning. You need to go in depth and details to analyze and understand the issues before you talk about it. I am rather disappointed that he keep bringing history into the picture. Everything evolves over time. What apply the last time may not apply now! Just look at EV, those big American, European and Japanese companies that ignore EV will eventually collapse. In stead of adoption based on logical analysis, they keep coming out with things like hydrogen cars, special ICE etc to denial the advantage of EV. Why? Because of Ego, Pride, EV's production are mainly made and promoted mainly by the Chinese. Instead of humble themselves and learn from the Chinese. If I will to be Peter position, I will admire how the Chinese study, research, develop and manufacture EV and create its supply chain completely and effectively.
I have noted that in Patrick’s RUclips videos he really controls his hands movements . In this style of interview Patrick lets loose with his hands!😄 Yes a study is in order 👌🏻 I really like both these men !
These people don’t understand. The politic is different from the west. The benefit of one party in china. Every decision they can do it fast unlike the west maybe this term is one party while the next term is another. The whole budget or policy will changed. About corruption, all country got it. Just like my friend in Canada, he opened a business there and said the govt appointed some firms to do certain licenses. So it is pretty must appointed for only those firms otherwise no license can be issued.
China is collapsing despite owning $1 trillion in Tresuries and trillions in overseas assets. USA is booming with $33 Trillions in debts. Go figure who is right.
Im not being negative here but I have been hearing about this “China economy going down” for so many years and yet China still stand strong. Yes i saw the video of ghost cities and empty abandoned factories jn Cjina but i dont see China going down. Whats going on?
It's called insane government officials faking the numbers. From the very beginning, foreign investors were taken for a ride by taking the CCP at face value. It's almost as if trusting a totalitarian government is a bad idea.
It's a bit of a hyperbole obviously, but you don't just suddenly collapse into rubble, no economy does. Look at Pakistan. It's down in the dumps for a long time, but perpetually just skating by. China's economy is just predictably saturating after all this tremendous growth and will slow down, just like the US. That's all that means. It definitely isn't all strong. But it wont be signified by the entire country falling over overnight or something. The impacts will be felt by regular ordinary people on the ground, jobs will be scarcer, necessities will be slightly more expensive, investments will be pulled out, which they are. The usual stuff.
It is collapsing. Ignore the official numbers; the CCP cooks the books. When you see and hear from ordinary Chinese people, you quickly realize that the CCP’s economic policies have been equivalent to starting a dumpster fire and then pouring enormous quantities of gasoline all over the dumpster fire. The real estate crash is much worse than you can imagine, and it will make the Great Depression look tame. It won’t be as global as the Great Depression, but it will be worse for China, because the amount of speculation and craziness got so much worse in China than it ever did in the United States.
Standing strong? Look at the stats for youth unemployment and gdp growth, then come back and talk to us about how “strong” the economy is, you know it’s in dire straits when xi xinping himself admitted it a week ago
Learn from China, Over the past 40 years, Lifting 800 Million People Out of Poverty. Infrastructure to every corner not making money for the politicians, just for the people to improve living. 12-7-2021 Tibet’s first bullet train line enters service For the first time, travelers in Tibet can enjoy the area’s mountainous views at high-speed. A 435-kilometer (250-mile) rail line connecting Tibetan capital Lhasa with the city of Nyingchi entered into service on June 25, giving all 31 provincial-level regions of mainland China access to high-speed train travel. 47 tunnels, 121 bridges Building a high-speed railroad in Tibet, dubbed the “roof of the world,” was no easy feat. Some 90% of the route, which took six years to construct, sits higher than 3,000 meters above sea level. The Lhasa-Nyingchi line features 47 tunnels and 121 bridges - which account for about 75% of the whole route. This includes the 525-meter-long Zangmu Railway Bridge, the largest and highest arch bridge of its kind in the world.
Well, saying that there's no need for high speed railways, coming from an american, where there are 0 miles of high speed railway, is a bit biased, or uninformed to say the least. High speed railway have brought economic growth and prosperity to many chinese territories that were underdeveloped just 15 years ago, and it has already paid by itself. Many american "doom experts" used to say in 2000 that the Euro would collapse in 5 years, and here we are. Blah blah blah.... They usually have lots to say about others, but seem to be oblivious to the fact that US infrastructure is crumbling, if not obsolete, with no high speed railways, it has fallen to 29th in the world in terms of productivity and value added to the economy.
It’s not that there is no need for High-Speed Rail, but connecting random, provincial cities with little economic output over huge distances through difficult terrain probably did not make sense given China’s GDP per capita, among other things.
Boyle's reasoning about what happened to American rail and why trackage declined sounds nice, but is wrong. Before the 1930's roads, and even streets in cities were dirt. Rail was how supplies were delivered to factories. After WW2, the US spent a lot of money building the interstate, and streets in cities all became paved. Roads, cars, and trucks were subsidized. Now, factories are often supplied solely by trucks. THAT is what happened to American trackage.
Ten years ago, I went to the far west of China by train. Alongside the existing rail line we were on, crossing an enormous desert, they were building a massive new high-speed rail line. Very impressive, but I wondered then how such an expensive project to a relatively unpopulated part of the country could ever be justified financially.
Not designed for passengers maybe. China Export goods to countries west of China with that rail. That rail can also transport tanks and soldiers quickly to china’s western border
Typical myopic Western observer. China conducts feasibility study before construction. China builds infrastructures for the future, rather than just to sustain current economic development and demographic. If there’s one thing that China has repeatedly demonstrated during the past 40 years, it’s competence of their leaders. Westerners in particular the Americans are susceptible to arrogance - they believe everything China does must be viewed through the Western prism and evaluated by Western metrics.
I have a lot respect for Patrick but just like many other economists he has failed to mention China only has 62% of its population urbanized which compares to 80%+ for the OECD countries such as the US, EU, Japan and South Korea. China’s urbanization rate is even far behind other developing economies such as Brazil (87%), Mexico (80%), Chile (87%), Venezuela (88%). This means for China to reach comparable 80% urbanization rate in the future, there will be more than 250 million people gradually moving from the country side to the urban areas. What the Chinese government doing is to build the infrastructure before these internal migrants arriving to the urban areas otherwise there will be inner-city slums .
Bad investments as far as rail is concerned in the US is really a reductive take. There were all sorts of politics (on local, state and federal levels). Also the lack of commitment by capital to see passenger rail as an alternative to cars.
I was about to comment on the same. I don't think railways were a mistake, but americans just chose to use cars for everything. That was the mistake. Trains could've been great for the country
@@alexanderSydneyOz It did slow down cause of covid, but china has been one of the very few countries out of 200 plus that still had positive growth durin this time
P.B. yes, China has Many Economics problems that seem unsurmountable, still you overlook the number of levers China can still use to overcome them. You didn't know over the last 40 yrs China encountered many economics problems you didn't know they were solved then may not be all of them. Never give up. Your concern should the US economic problems they are far more serious.
@@eng3d Most of the expenditure is in Yuan not US$. That makes a lot of difference. What the US debt US$33 trillion? I would be more worried but I am not a US citizen, that is why I don't spread bad news everywhere.
Lee quan yei, the father of Singapore another great Asian leader responding to a bbc interview ( WHY DOES THE WEST ALWAYS ASSUME WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT WE ARE DOING? AND WE HAVE TO DO THINGS THE WESTERN WAY TO BE CORRECT.WE ARE NOY STUPID). THE WESTERN WAY IS NOT THE ONLY WAY TO BUILD A NATION.
'The West' assumed for 20+ years that China knew what it was doing, and the speed of their development was just terrifying efficiency, not cutting corners. Now 'the West' relies on information from China to question whether that was true after all. And what has all this to do with nation building?
@@oldernu1250 You are clueless. PAP is a Socialist party and Singapore is a Socialist country. Nair the former president of Singapore and PAP member even wrote a book about it, and if you haven't already read Lee Kwan Yew's book, he often refers to Singapore as Socialist. They are even very critical of the Scandinavian Social Democrat system.
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.
One thing OP conveniently forgets to mention during the times he posted: China receiving financial aid from the west to prop up their economy and manufacturing capabilities. The problem is the CCP would essentially take that aid and waste it on garbage megaprojects rather than actually investing it into their country. Now that the global money spigot is turned off in China, the already cash poor citizens will feel the hurt. I'm sure the government officials will be just fine though.
@@eurospecOh yes...the tiresome ol' spiel: "If I repeat this enough times, it'll surely happen sooner or later! (see I can predict the future)", but any day now mate
China's economy is collapsing! Collapsing! 400 Million Chinese is out taking part in snow activities. It has half the world's indoor ski runs, ski resorts grew from 400 to 700 in three years. It is not good, just one aspect of China's economic facts. China economy this winter is freezing while our Ski runs are water logged and ducks are having a great time.
The rails in the US are privately owned, in China they're State-owned. Can't distinguish the difference? Unless you have a profound understanding of Chinese history, culture, society, and their current System, then you'd understand why they keep building roads. Infrastructure projects aren't supposed to be about profits, that's an Oligarchy-Capitalist mentality that only cares about profits, the commoners can eat dirt for all they care.
China's 5% growth rate in 2023 is the same as the 11% growth rate in 2012, measured in absolute amount. Chinese just passed Japan in 2023 as the largest car exporter of the world, mostly in EV cars. And China just passed South Korea as the biggest Large Scale Ship Builder of the world. China now can produce 7nm computer chips AT SCALE. If you look at how much China exports to Vietnam and Mexico, you will realize China simply divert its exports directly to US but through Vietnam and Mexico. And this guys just says China is killing its economy and uses generalized ideas and narratives without facts supporting those claims. China is the real deal in PRODUCING. It has the world's biggest infrastructure and the manufacturing ecosystem. It is managed by an effective government and operated by some of the most widely educated country men and women in the world. Don't let these "pseudo economic professors" tell you otherwise.
Western idiots kept predicting China collapse for decades but the reality went totally opposite. Why people still believe these idiots. The believers just have the same wishful thinking no matter how idiotic it is. I guess they just can't help themselves. Actually what happened in China in the past decades is just a teaser. In couple of decades China will pretty much dominate all areas to make the west so insignificant. I predicted China today decades ago and I'm predicting its future
china speed ran 200 years of economic and financial development in 50 years. from a country full of peasant farmers living in fishing villages to hyperfinancializing their economy and hitting the demographic wall and experiencing almost every single problem that major developing countries are experiencing but with a massive population. aging population, real estate implosion, high youth unemployment, extreme underemployment. they rapidly urbanized which led to a gigantic real estate bubble, they rapidly educated their population which led to not enough high skill/high paying jobs
I heard Patrick said two years ago that Turkey was going to collapse. How many people here actually follow these prophets throughout the years and wait for their prophecy become reality but never bothered go back to their online archives and fact check and question why its not happening what they predicted. I guess many people just come across a title that fit their confirmed bias and hope, then click it to make themselves feel better.
Patrick Boyle is good on certain areas. Nobody is good on everything. However, I sensed that Patrick Boyle may need to travel more globally to understand better.
I respect Patrick Boyle's opinion but looking back upon China's miraculous transformation over 40 years, I see continued imrpovement, albeit slower and more steady. I ridicule the gloom and doomers (eg Gordon Chang) as projecting their own biases and prejudices at a country which has accomplished the unthinkable of bringing 800,000,000 out of poverty (based on World Bank standards). What country/civilization can top that? Let the record speak for itself. Perhaps, the Chinese economy is momentarily "taking a breather"; but others like myself expect far more to come especially as China is using its resources to assist the developing world in the BRI. We in America spend (waste) >$1,000,000,000,000/year in military expenses pursuing useless wars, while China spends the same amount in infrastructure projects. Destruction vs Construction.
Patrick Boyle is good on certain areas. Nobody is good on everything. However, I sensed that Patrick Boyle may need to travel more globally to understand better.
I saw a documentary lately on Mars. It's quite amusing to see these self-proclaimed Mars experts confidently discussing Mars. Delusional experts who have not even been there.
Either way, we are observing from the outside looking in. In a lot of ways, people outside China do have a better view of China since the CCP rigorously prevents information from getting to its people.@@dicky-duck6632
6:55: When will interest rates go back to their normal level of zero? Indeed every real estate agent in Australia, and our new group of super spruikers - Buyers Agents, are all preaching this!
What did you expect from a country that killed off all the sparrows, that resulted in an explosion of crop eating insects, that resulted in famine that killed millions of people. I though to said these people were smart.
History is littered with environmental disasters, but few compare to the one kicked off in 1958 in China. That was the year that Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People's Republic of China, decided that his country could do without pests like sparrows. The impact of this ill-conceived decision - along with many other policies he put in place - caused a domino effect of destruction. Three years later, as many as 45 million people were dead. @@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh
He is living in the dream comparing Europe and US with China. Basically the path are different. The cost is lower and the need is much higher with a very large population and the belt and road to countries badly need the infrastructure.
Wrong. Digging holes and filling them back up is another name for the Belt and Road Initiative. Go visit some of the locations and see for yourself. China has wasted hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sri Lanka really needed to pay all those Chinese companies to build useless projects with high interest CCP loans. Why did they go insolvent? It must be a CIA plot!
Anyone who can carry-their-own, in an in-person interview with Patrick Boyle, gets my attention. The great job done got the subscription, notifications, a like - and this comment! There is only one Patrick Boyle.
What amazes me is the self proclaimed experts have been so slow on the uptake. I’m a very close friend to a very senior analyst of Asia, for the last 10 years I’ve been pointing to the problems with the CCP and the structural chasms in the CCP and the Chinese economy. For up until 18 months ago, I’ve been derided by the experts, now, they are pontificating using points I was making 6 and 7 years ago! But no one wants to hear what I’m saying now about China! I say, look at Japan, think 1980, think NO DISCIPLINE, think no real,cultural unity!
Keep smoking that weed buddy while China becomes a super Singapore. Because it is Singaporean's Confucian based system China has decided to adopt 40 years ago.
Just like the CCP, a lot of investors are vain. They just want to save face and be told that their money is being well spent. It takes a totalitarian government going back to it's roots to make them face the music.
It now takes Canada a hundred years to pissing do a mile of railroad tracks maintenance west of Toronto on technology that basically over 100 years old
Building railroads to remote areas may seem pointless, but those sparse areas gradually become trade, industrial and tourist destinations. Opportunities and supporting economies follows. Population grew, suddenly the road to nowhere becomes the road to somewhere. It’s already happening to China’s poorest regions, they are the fastest growing provinces.
I love it when smart people talk about subjects they do not fully understand. Success doesn't mean you become an expert in everything. China is NOT a Western economy. Many of its internal investments do not have to be profitable (like high-speed trains), but they have to benefit the population. Yes, there is a huge difference between Western civilization and China’s civilization. Cultural comparisons, when the entire structure is different, are plainly inappropriate. In Western society, we have reached a point where the government only invests in things, even if they are highly beneficial for the population, if private contractors can make astronomical profits from it. It's an in-your-face corruption, but profit is prioritized over growth because growth is no longer about life quality but rather profit for an elite. We are in trouble, and I often wonder whether smart people, when interviewing, are not as smart or if they are caught up in the anti-China propaganda machine.The best example is an author, Gordon G. Chang, who wrote a book (published in 2001) titled "The Coming Collapse of China." He became an instant expert, and since then, he is considered someone who knows. However, every single one of his predictions was based on the Western economy/system and has proven to be inaccurate.Just like the person in the video has no idea what he is talking about, but his life success is more important than the content of his talk.
All this experts from western keep talking about China collapsing or problems. If it is true then they should not talk about it all the time because that what we, the western or eoropean want right? Your guys should focus on your own region or the USA. I live in the US for 43 years. I saw it goes down hill so fast same as UK and they still worry about China.
Any thing built properly and Maintained, Will last. Throwing out a system that works for something not ready and in development,is greed and ignorance leading the way.
😂 Killing its economy while the west is desecrating the remains of its once powerful economy. Trillions in debt in yanksville due to almost a century of military occupations
@@strigoiu13 There is nothing to explain. Everything is fake news of the West: 1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing. 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? .... Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
What economists don’t talk about is the much bigger issue and urgency for the Chinese to spend their massive dollar denominated foreign reserve (accumulated over decades of trade surpluses) while Washington accelerates its money printing policy. For China, it comes down to either keep building trains even if nobody ride them, or sit & watch the value of their hard earn dollars eventually goes to zero.
I always say CCP but China changed it last year and pretend the abbreviation was always CPC (Communist Party of China). Because CCP always linked to those bad images through the so called “west propaganda” lol. So funny how they change the truth very Orwellian.
today china is just too rich & powerful. us mexicans are very jealous of the chinese people. however, mexico has to put on a happy face and be happy for china... but deep down we want mexicans to be # 1. brave new world ahead...
First, China is a country with 1.4 billion people. The demand to go fast to anywhere within the country is shooting so high. Secondly, China has plans to develop Xinjiang and Tibet so transportation in and out the area is necessary. Third please do not apply any economy models that happened in the West on China, the economic scale of China is something that westeners have never imagined before.
When they first build high speed train in China, i took it and very few passengers. Today it's pack. Same with property eventually it will be purchase. Wise Developer will Keep building when material are cheap and sole with high profit.
Gotta disagree on the train example though. Highways are absolutely terrible awful investments and it makes way more sense to move people on rails… if one would strictly look at investments and returns, cars would basically be nonexistent.
Look at the China, it was such a big country sit at the bottom of the 192 countries for about 200 years. When it climbs back, allow 100 years (which is 50% of the time).
Boyle is knowledgable about western markets, but have no idea about Asia. He assumes that China works like the UK. For one thing few people see the full picture of Chinese accounting.
A major part of the China problem is the lack of a real property market. People don’t own land. The complex correcting mechanisms don’t exist in a command economy. President Xi can’t control everything despite what he might imagine.
In what country you are allowed to own land? When a family court can decide to give your wife your property it is already not your. Can you name a western country that ban your wife from claiming your property?
@PatRisberg owning your own property is the best way not to be a slave or surf, and be Free, or be a true self reliant nomad, or take up drugs... And move to California....
Gets really boring listening to people talking down Chinese economy, been listening to this rubbish for the last 10 years. Tip of the day: try something original.
@PatRisberg For China? In the near future? Not even close. China's population decline is significant. In 2022, China reported a population decline of 850,000, bringing its total to 1.411 billion. This was the first population decline in decades, influenced by factors such as the "zero-COVID" policy and the effects of the one-child rule. The reduction in the labor force could push China to increase wages or bring in migrant workers. Additionally, the population decline may lead to increased labor costs, impacting one of China's key economic advantages. The issue of automation, while important, might not be as immediate as the population decline in terms of its impact on China's economy. However, in the longer term, as the workforce ages and shrinks, industries that rely heavily on physical labor, such as manufacturing and construction, may face severe labor shortages. This could drive companies to invest more in automation and technology to compensate for the reduced workforce. Interestingly, despite the declining population, China's labor force was estimated to be around 791 million in 2021, and certain areas still have significant numbers of unemployed or underemployed workers. So, while both points are relevant to China's economic challenges, the immediate impact of the population decline seems to be more pressing, especially considering the country's demographic shift and its implications on labor costs, economic growth, and political stability. Automation may become a more significant factor as the labor shortage becomes more pronounced in the future.
@@DefinitelyNotAMachineCultist it's not about the population (which is massively over estimated for other reasons) but the demographics of the age. If you have a billion 20-somethings and a hundred million retirees, that's a great economy. If you have a billion retirees and a hundred million 20 year olds... different story. The results of generations of One Child policy are already starting to come to fruition.
@@DefinitelyNotAMachineCultist oh yes. You might ignore a dictator if you have good living standards. You might ignore low living standards if you are free. But low living standards AND a dictatorship? NAW!
@@darthkek1953 Not even low living standards as much as general stagnation and resentment stemming from seeing how those who came before you had it easier than you, and are now passing more burdens onto you, at least in your eyes. The 'lying flat' meme comes to mind. There're even stories of parents tolerating physical abuse from their kids FFS. Even the woke nonsense in California that the US tradcons always rant about can't hold a candle to this when it comes to social degeneration. Legacy of that godawful Cultural Revolution combined with the one-child policy based on Malthusian nonsense.
China is investing in infrastructure, research and development and winning the confidence of its citizens, the future domestic consumers who will cause export to be unnecessary, irrelevant, and redundant.
Projection Bozo should stick to analysis on small scales. He has no clue about China's size, scale and speed because he hasn't lived in China, nor really experienced China. He has no clue about the culture so he's analysis China from his fixed outdated Western lenses and that's not sufficient to understand China from a macro or micro standpoint. Take for example, High Speed trains maintanence is not an issue in a country with 1.4 billion people and the "Eye test" doesn't contradict this simple logic. Nor how much utilization problem in a country with 1.4 billion people. But of course these are big problems in small countries like UK or Ireland. Projections and Propagandized victim.
I remember conversations like this about China even before the GFC. Questions like "How can they afford all these buildings they are keeping empty?"
They extended that problem by making property ownership one of the only viable investments for common people. That increased demand of housing, so they just kept on building even when they were far past the point of saturation. That led to the current problems we might see now, or maybe they will find some clever accounting to extend the problem even further, but it will come due eventually.
One thing people don't realise is China is still in the process of building new satellite town homes next to her major cities in anticipation of rural folks migration ( young people)to the cities . The satellite towns help to decongest the major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Hongkong . Data Reference from book : China Dream.
they can't, but the crash like all crashes, happens slowly at first then all at once. if ponzi schemes failed on day one, there would be no ponzi schemes, there are ponzi schemes, therefore it takes time, the bigger the scheme, the longer the time
@@JamesCoffey It just gets a bit scary when the people running that show also control one of the largest peacetime armed forces by manpower in human history.
@@Plainsburner it's not scary, they can't go anywhere, no blue water navy, if they could then why haven't they taken Taiwan already? And that's not even a blue water operation. Not saying they won't try, but they will fail, they cannot secure the supply of energy and food of which they are a net importer.
I have much respect for Patrick's ability to keep l from giving anything close to financial advice no matter how much Andrew is fishing for even vague statements à la "I see a lot of potential in Indonesia". I wish everyone had that kind of integrity
Indonesian here, run far far away from any Indon market; our country is losing out to the fericious rebels. Which is bad, really bad since a lot of Indonesia's construction is fueled by the exploitation of Papua.
On top of that Islamism is on the rise, Indonesia had never been a tolerant country like it loves pretend to be. But recently various Daesh and Al Qaeda/Haqani linked groups are becoming more and more popular.
The cherry on top is the legalized thugs known as "ormas" in Indonesia who will siphon the shit out of any foreign or local bussiness venture via forced"donation"
There's a reason why middle-uppler claaa Kaffirs like me, especially the opressed eastern Indonesians prefer to keep our wealth "portable". Dont be a sucker.
Patrick Boyle is a legend. Watched his channel grow from a few thousand to hundreds of thousands. Knew he would do well with it.
There's certainly no shortage of ignorant followers for these fake news propagandist
Legend !!!! my dirty foot
Proof that people will believe anything from anyone.
Basically more Macro economic propaganda China-doomsayer of the last 30 years have not kept their mouth shut adn kept on spewing out nonsense
Any video that talks bad about China will have hundreds of thousands of subscribers and millions of views. Have you found a way to make a fortune?
While studying at King's College London took a course on derivatives delivered by Patrick. This course was one of the best on the programme.
I would’ve failed the class, but I’d be so tempted to take any class taught by Patrick.
I love how Patrick sounds the same no matter who he is talking to, an interviewer or his RUclips audience. No acting, all natural.
He speaks his own convivial patois.
Just him and his dry humor
His nickname is "Projection Bozo" so you clowns have a lot to learn and get your head out the sand, son.
He clearly sounds different in this interview.
The contexts is more important then the delivery. Sounding consistently is a matter of conditioning. You need to go in depth and details to analyze and understand the issues before you talk about it. I am rather disappointed that he keep bringing history into the picture. Everything evolves over time. What apply the last time may not apply now! Just look at EV, those big American, European and Japanese companies that ignore EV will eventually collapse. In stead of adoption based on logical analysis, they keep coming out with things like hydrogen cars, special ICE etc to denial the advantage of EV. Why? Because of Ego, Pride, EV's production are mainly made and promoted mainly by the Chinese. Instead of humble themselves and learn from the Chinese. If I will to be Peter position, I will admire how the Chinese study, research, develop and manufacture
EV and create its supply chain completely and effectively.
Patricks improvement in camera presence over the past two years needs to be studied.
He’s come so far imo
Too much hands
I have noted that in Patrick’s RUclips videos he really controls his hands movements . In this style of interview Patrick lets loose with his hands!😄
Yes a study is in order 👌🏻
I really like both these men !
@@jeffreyadams648 Only care about his audio, like listening to his talk by RADIO and Not bother looking at the screen.
@@jeffreyadams648but they aren't random I might say. I like when people articulate like that
@agoodchow maturity
These people don’t understand. The politic is different from the west. The benefit of one party in china. Every decision they can do it fast unlike the west maybe this term is one party while the next term is another. The whole budget or policy will changed. About corruption, all country got it. Just like my friend in Canada, he opened a business there and said the govt appointed some firms to do certain licenses. So it is pretty must appointed for only those firms otherwise no license can be issued.
It's amazing that the China Collapse theory will not die :D
China collapsing is a whole industry now Patrick also latches on...
China is collapsing despite owning $1 trillion in Tresuries and trillions in overseas assets.
USA is booming with $33 Trillions in debts.
Go figure who is right.
They are smart academics. Life time employment secured.
Im not being negative here but I have been hearing about this “China economy going down” for so many years and yet China still stand strong. Yes i saw the video of ghost cities and empty abandoned factories jn Cjina but i dont see China going down. Whats going on?
It's called insane government officials faking the numbers. From the very beginning, foreign investors were taken for a ride by taking the CCP at face value. It's almost as if trusting a totalitarian government is a bad idea.
It's a bit of a hyperbole obviously, but you don't just suddenly collapse into rubble, no economy does. Look at Pakistan. It's down in the dumps for a long time, but perpetually just skating by. China's economy is just predictably saturating after all this tremendous growth and will slow down, just like the US. That's all that means. It definitely isn't all strong. But it wont be signified by the entire country falling over overnight or something. The impacts will be felt by regular ordinary people on the ground, jobs will be scarcer, necessities will be slightly more expensive, investments will be pulled out, which they are. The usual stuff.
It is collapsing. Ignore the official numbers; the CCP cooks the books. When you see and hear from ordinary Chinese people, you quickly realize that the CCP’s economic policies have been equivalent to starting a dumpster fire and then pouring enormous quantities of gasoline all over the dumpster fire. The real estate crash is much worse than you can imagine, and it will make the Great Depression look tame. It won’t be as global as the Great Depression, but it will be worse for China, because the amount of speculation and craziness got so much worse in China than it ever did in the United States.
You can’t judge macro by looking at micro. That’s two subjects in economics
Standing strong? Look at the stats for youth unemployment and gdp growth, then come back and talk to us about how “strong” the economy is, you know it’s in dire straits when xi xinping himself admitted it a week ago
Learn from China, Over the past 40 years, Lifting 800 Million People Out of Poverty.
Infrastructure to every corner not making money for the politicians, just for the people to improve living.
12-7-2021 Tibet’s first bullet train line enters service
For the first time, travelers in Tibet can enjoy the area’s mountainous views at high-speed.
A 435-kilometer (250-mile) rail line connecting Tibetan capital Lhasa with the city of Nyingchi entered into service on June 25, giving all 31 provincial-level regions of mainland China access to high-speed train travel.
47 tunnels, 121 bridges
Building a high-speed railroad in Tibet, dubbed the “roof of the world,” was no easy feat.
Some 90% of the route, which took six years to construct, sits higher than 3,000 meters above sea level.
The Lhasa-Nyingchi line features 47 tunnels and 121 bridges - which account for about 75% of the whole route. This includes the 525-meter-long Zangmu Railway Bridge, the largest and highest arch bridge of its kind in the world.
Can you tell us what happened on June 4th, 1989? Since you seem to speak nothing but the truth, surely you can answer such a question.
@@Stalkerfan498 what a dumb answer, dumbest answer of the month, congrats
@@ToriZealot You are ever-so wise sir. Maybe you can answer?
@@Stalkerfan498 it was my 46th birthday, happy?
@@ToriZealot Happy tp confirm that you can't provide the obvious answer, courtesy of your CCP paymasters.
Well, saying that there's no need for high speed railways, coming from an american, where there are 0 miles of high speed railway, is a bit biased, or uninformed to say the least. High speed railway have brought economic growth and prosperity to many chinese territories that were underdeveloped just 15 years ago, and it has already paid by itself. Many american "doom experts" used to say in 2000 that the Euro would collapse in 5 years, and here we are. Blah blah blah.... They usually have lots to say about others, but seem to be oblivious to the fact that US infrastructure is crumbling, if not obsolete, with no high speed railways, it has fallen to 29th in the world in terms of productivity and value added to the economy.
Head in sand effect seems to be a thing for Americans. Not like they can do much about it anyways though.
It’s not that there is no need for High-Speed Rail, but connecting random, provincial cities with little economic output over huge distances through difficult terrain probably did not make sense given China’s GDP per capita, among other things.
In terms of productivity the US is still in the top 5 on a per labor hour and a per capita basis.
30 years I heard China is collapsing…..😂
well it kinda is right now if you know anything
@@songhan15865.5% GDP growth for 2023, that's not "collapse" by any measure...
And I have heard for the last 30 years that China will overtake America soon, but that hasn't happened yet.
If that number is to be believed...
This is called willful ignorance. Anything that you don't like is fake.
Boyle's reasoning about what happened to American rail and why trackage declined sounds nice, but is wrong.
Before the 1930's roads, and even streets in cities were dirt.
Rail was how supplies were delivered to factories.
After WW2, the US spent a lot of money building the interstate, and streets in cities all became paved.
Roads, cars, and trucks were subsidized.
Now, factories are often supplied solely by trucks.
THAT is what happened to American trackage.
They've been saying the same thing for 40 years now. Maybe it will work someday.
Ten years ago, I went to the far west of China by train. Alongside the existing rail line we were on, crossing an enormous desert, they were building a massive new high-speed rail line. Very impressive, but I wondered then how such an expensive project to a relatively unpopulated part of the country could ever be justified financially.
Id guess they're hoping it encourages people to move along the rail line?
Not designed for passengers maybe. China Export goods to countries west of China with that rail. That rail can also transport tanks and soldiers quickly to china’s western border
@@harrisonhan3148 it is very hard to maintain a long railroad against partisans in a wartime.
Typical myopic Western observer. China conducts feasibility study before construction. China builds infrastructures for the future, rather than just to sustain current economic development and demographic. If there’s one thing that China has repeatedly demonstrated during the past 40 years, it’s competence of their leaders. Westerners in particular the Americans are susceptible to arrogance - they believe everything China does must be viewed through the Western prism and evaluated by Western metrics.
A modern day silk road perhaps
I have a lot respect for Patrick but just like many other economists he has failed to mention China only has 62% of its population urbanized which compares to 80%+ for the OECD countries such as the US, EU, Japan and South Korea.
China’s urbanization rate is even far behind other developing economies such as Brazil (87%), Mexico (80%), Chile (87%), Venezuela (88%).
This means for China to reach comparable 80% urbanization rate in the future, there will be more than 250 million people gradually moving from the country side to the urban areas. What the Chinese government doing is to build the infrastructure before these internal migrants arriving to the urban areas otherwise there will be inner-city slums .
Bad investments as far as rail is concerned in the US is really a reductive take. There were all sorts of politics (on local, state and federal levels). Also the lack of commitment by capital to see passenger rail as an alternative to cars.
The capital was there maybe not at the beginning but the capital flowed
Rail transport for passengers only works in dense population areas. Investment got nothing to do with it.
🎯Thank you.
I was about to comment on the same. I don't think railways were a mistake, but americans just chose to use cars for everything. That was the mistake. Trains could've been great for the country
Yeah, that statement from him shows me he really doesn't know a lot about rail on either continent
Asian vs Westerner thinking.
Patrick been saying China is on decline for 2 years now.
And it has been in decline for 2 years.
@@alexanderSydneyOz In your dreams.
@@alexanderSydneyOzwhat is your petrol, diesel rate in your country 😂
@@tipupakoro5729no, no. In reality
@@alexanderSydneyOz
It did slow down cause of covid, but china has been one of the very few countries out of 200 plus that still had positive growth durin this time
P.B. yes, China has Many Economics problems that seem unsurmountable, still you overlook the number of levers China can still use to overcome them. You didn't know over the last 40 yrs China encountered many economics problems you didn't know they were solved then may not be all of them. Never give up.
Your concern should the US economic problems they are far more serious.
us in a nutshell: collect 5 trillions and spend 7 trillions, and instead of restricting the spending, it is spending even more.
@@eng3d Most of the expenditure is in Yuan not US$. That makes a lot of difference. What the US debt US$33 trillion? I would be more worried but I am not a US citizen, that is why I don't spread bad news everywhere.
@@eng3dit's insane, and it Will end up badly if sanity doesn't happen soon, like the day before yesterday.
Lee quan yei, the father of Singapore another great Asian leader responding to a bbc interview ( WHY DOES THE WEST ALWAYS ASSUME WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT WE ARE DOING? AND WE HAVE TO DO THINGS THE WESTERN WAY TO BE CORRECT.WE ARE NOY STUPID). THE WESTERN WAY IS NOT THE ONLY WAY TO BUILD A NATION.
What's your point?
Singapore then is not like mainland China under CCP now.
'The West' assumed for 20+ years that China knew what it was doing, and the speed of their development was just terrifying efficiency, not cutting corners. Now 'the West' relies on information from China to question whether that was true after all.
And what has all this to do with nation building?
@@oldernu1250 You are clueless. PAP is a Socialist party and Singapore is a Socialist country. Nair the former president of Singapore and PAP member even wrote a book about it, and if you haven't already read Lee Kwan Yew's book, he often refers to Singapore as Socialist. They are even very critical of the Scandinavian Social Democrat system.
You can't even spell Lee Kuan Yew properly
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if
China..
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft
Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China
avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from
China: A Hard Landing
2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing..
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than You Think
2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is
Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is
Here.
Every year the same old propaganda.
Ah the old "because it hasn't happened it can therefore never happen" argument. Your logic is irrefutable.
That is hilarious. Why wasn't there an article about such prediction in 2019? Is it because they predicted COVID would happen at the end of 2019?
One thing OP conveniently forgets to mention during the times he posted: China receiving financial aid from the west to prop up their economy and manufacturing capabilities. The problem is the CCP would essentially take that aid and waste it on garbage megaprojects rather than actually investing it into their country. Now that the global money spigot is turned off in China, the already cash poor citizens will feel the hurt. I'm sure the government officials will be just fine though.
@@eurospecOh yes...the tiresome ol' spiel: "If I repeat this enough times, it'll surely happen sooner or later! (see I can predict the future)", but any day now mate
I rather they spent money on rail than money on guns like some country
China's economy is collapsing! Collapsing! 400 Million Chinese is out taking part in snow activities. It has half the world's indoor ski runs, ski resorts grew from 400 to 700 in three years. It is not good, just one aspect of China's economic facts. China economy this winter is freezing while our Ski runs are water logged and ducks are having a great time.
The rails in the US are privately owned, in China they're State-owned. Can't distinguish the difference? Unless you have a profound understanding of Chinese history, culture, society, and their current System, then you'd understand why they keep building roads. Infrastructure projects aren't supposed to be about profits, that's an Oligarchy-Capitalist mentality that only cares about profits, the commoners can eat dirt for all they care.
They are talking about other people's problem to cover up their own bigger problem.
What? You mean building bridges to nowhere makes you broke? I'm shocked. Absolutely shocked.
Andrew and Patrick, TWO of my favourites!!!
❤
China's 5% growth rate in 2023 is the same as the 11% growth rate in 2012, measured in absolute amount.
Chinese just passed Japan in 2023 as the largest car exporter of the world, mostly in EV cars. And China just passed South Korea as the biggest Large Scale Ship Builder of the world. China now can produce 7nm computer chips AT SCALE.
If you look at how much China exports to Vietnam and Mexico, you will realize China simply divert its exports directly to US but through Vietnam and Mexico.
And this guys just says China is killing its economy and uses generalized ideas and narratives without facts supporting those claims.
China is the real deal in PRODUCING. It has the world's biggest infrastructure and the manufacturing ecosystem. It is managed by an effective government and operated by some of the most widely educated country men and women in the world. Don't let these "pseudo economic professors" tell you otherwise.
The whole talk with Patrick is worth watching. Thank you!
Your spot on there
Western idiots kept predicting China collapse for decades but the reality went totally opposite. Why people still believe these idiots. The believers just have the same wishful thinking no matter how idiotic it is. I guess they just can't help themselves. Actually what happened in China in the past decades is just a teaser. In couple of decades China will pretty much dominate all areas to make the west so insignificant. I predicted China today decades ago and I'm predicting its future
china speed ran 200 years of economic and financial development in 50 years. from a country full of peasant farmers living in fishing villages to hyperfinancializing their economy and hitting the demographic wall and experiencing almost every single problem that major developing countries are experiencing but with a massive population. aging population, real estate implosion, high youth unemployment, extreme underemployment. they rapidly urbanized which led to a gigantic real estate bubble, they rapidly educated their population which led to not enough high skill/high paying jobs
Agree, that was a massive change and they will need some time to redirect for sure
Like the Banque du Canada did until 1974,
The Chinese government is financed interest-free
China is a different system, The country and population in focus , not the corporate elite.
@@costamarques3900 that is what the Nazis said and did with Mefo Bills. It didn't work out that well.
The population, not the corporate elite or the CCP lackeys, is also in the focus of the oppression.
@@lewisbrandThe USA is the nation with the nazi problem today, what a statement..if trump wins its over literally.
A lot of folk were mortgaging housing that literally didn't exist yet. Then the inevitable happened.
China is growing stronger whereas US and western countries are declining that's the fact.
I can hear a particular politician saying, "Chiiina is eating our lunch!"
On Rail , there was more rail in 1800s than now is because there was no planes & Highways.
High speed rails in the 80-500 mile range are more effective than highways.
Great guest and great video
Thank you!
Patrick is an Irish gem with his sardonic dry humour. A gas man indeed!
If gurus like these passes off as "gems" these days, I've got bad news for ya
@@accountantthe3394 Your bad news is as worthless as yourself lol!!
I heard Patrick said two years ago that Turkey was going to collapse. How many people here actually follow these prophets throughout the years and wait for their prophecy become reality but never bothered go back to their online archives and fact check and question why its not happening what they predicted. I guess many people just come across a title that fit their confirmed bias and hope, then click it to make themselves feel better.
Delusional experts who have not even been there.
Patrick Boyle is good on certain areas. Nobody is good on everything.
However, I sensed that Patrick Boyle may need to travel more globally to understand better.
Yes. He still appeard good. Just that I am in the Far East and see it real, so it is NOT convincing me.
Another pupil of Gordon Chang 😅
How much did Patrick abstain himself from saying "silicone valley bollocks" instead of "silicon valley language" ? 😂
Remember 23 years ago when analysts claimed chinas realestate market was going to collapse when it was quite the opposite ?
Oh wow, this is a treat!
Nomad Capitalist x Patrick Boyle!
Can we have the plain Bagel here too????
That conversation sounds interesting.
I respect Patrick Boyle's opinion but looking back upon China's miraculous transformation over 40 years, I see continued imrpovement, albeit slower and more steady. I ridicule the gloom and doomers (eg Gordon Chang) as projecting their own biases and prejudices at a country which has accomplished the unthinkable of bringing 800,000,000 out of poverty (based on World Bank standards). What country/civilization can top that? Let the record speak for itself. Perhaps, the Chinese economy is momentarily "taking a breather"; but others like myself expect far more to come especially as China is using its resources to assist the developing world in the BRI. We in America spend (waste) >$1,000,000,000,000/year in military expenses pursuing useless wars, while China spends the same amount in infrastructure projects. Destruction vs Construction.
I have told you a billion times not to exaggerate.
It's quite amusing to see these self-proclaimed China experts confidently discussing China
Patrick Boyle is good on certain areas. Nobody is good on everything.
However, I sensed that Patrick Boyle may need to travel more globally to understand better.
I saw a documentary lately on Mars. It's quite amusing to see these self-proclaimed Mars experts confidently discussing Mars. Delusional experts who have not even been there.
@@YourHineyness the difference is we cannot buy a ticket to Mars but we can buy a ticket to China and check things out
Either way, we are observing from the outside looking in. In a lot of ways, people outside China do have a better view of China since the CCP rigorously prevents information from getting to its people.@@dicky-duck6632
Well, you can’t expect the average Chinese citizen to be able to discuss their own country.
6:55: When will interest rates go back to their normal level of zero?
Indeed every real estate agent in Australia, and our new group of super spruikers - Buyers Agents, are all preaching this!
What did you expect from a country that killed off all the sparrows, that resulted in an explosion of crop eating insects, that resulted in famine that killed millions of people.
I though to said these people were smart.
You mean Vietnam?
History is littered with environmental disasters, but few compare to the one kicked off in 1958 in China. That was the year that Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People's Republic of China, decided that his country could do without pests like sparrows. The impact of this ill-conceived decision - along with many other policies he put in place - caused a domino effect of destruction. Three years later, as many as 45 million people were dead. @@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh
What do you expect from USA that killed millions of native animal every year 😂
He is living in the dream comparing Europe and US with China. Basically the path are different. The cost is lower and the need is much higher with a very large population and the belt and road to countries badly need the infrastructure.
Wrong. Digging holes and filling them back up is another name for the Belt and Road Initiative. Go visit some of the locations and see for yourself. China has wasted hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sri Lanka really needed to pay all those Chinese companies to build useless projects with high interest CCP loans. Why did they go insolvent? It must be a CIA plot!
These two are legends!!!
Anyone who can carry-their-own, in an in-person interview with Patrick Boyle, gets my attention. The great job done got the subscription, notifications, a like - and this comment!
There is only one Patrick Boyle.
Why not send him a love letter? Others have to read this ass kissing.
Enjoy the bovine manure fed to you by your favourite CIA sponsored anti China fake news propagandist
What amazes me is the self proclaimed experts have been so slow on the uptake. I’m a very close friend to a very senior analyst of Asia, for the last 10 years I’ve been pointing to the problems with the CCP and the structural chasms in the CCP and the Chinese economy. For up until 18 months ago, I’ve been derided by the experts, now, they are pontificating using points I was making 6 and 7 years ago! But no one wants to hear what I’m saying now about China! I say, look at Japan, think 1980, think NO DISCIPLINE, think no real,cultural unity!
Keep smoking that weed buddy while China becomes a super Singapore. Because it is Singaporean's Confucian based system China has decided to adopt 40 years ago.
Just like the CCP, a lot of investors are vain. They just want to save face and be told that their money is being well spent. It takes a totalitarian government going back to it's roots to make them face the music.
"There is a guy who look like Jesus... He talk Silicon Valley language" He got me with that one : )
It now takes Canada a hundred years to pissing do a mile of railroad tracks maintenance west of Toronto on technology that basically over 100 years old
Building railroads to remote areas may seem pointless, but those sparse areas gradually become trade, industrial and tourist destinations. Opportunities and supporting economies follows. Population grew, suddenly the road to nowhere becomes the road to somewhere.
It’s already happening to China’s poorest regions, they are the fastest growing provinces.
Has Patrick ever been to China?
This channel doesn't deserve Patrick Boyle.
correct
I love it when smart people talk about subjects they do not fully understand. Success doesn't mean you become an expert in everything. China is NOT a Western economy. Many of its internal investments do not have to be profitable (like high-speed trains), but they have to benefit the population. Yes, there is a huge difference between Western civilization and China’s civilization. Cultural comparisons, when the entire structure is different, are plainly inappropriate. In Western society, we have reached a point where the government only invests in things, even if they are highly beneficial for the population, if private contractors can make astronomical profits from it. It's an in-your-face corruption, but profit is prioritized over growth because growth is no longer about life quality but rather profit for an elite. We are in trouble, and I often wonder whether smart people, when interviewing, are not as smart or if they are caught up in the anti-China propaganda machine.The best example is an author, Gordon G. Chang, who wrote a book (published in 2001) titled "The Coming Collapse of China." He became an instant expert, and since then, he is considered someone who knows. However, every single one of his predictions was based on the Western economy/system and has proven to be inaccurate.Just like the person in the video has no idea what he is talking about, but his life success is more important than the content of his talk.
The propaganda is strong in America no doubt.
Patrick is truly the goat
Building infrastructure is not malinvestment; but building war machines is.
Omg didn't know you guys know each other.. Patrick Boyle is a genius
What a fabulous explanations
All this experts from western keep talking about China collapsing or problems. If it is true then they should not talk about it all the time because that what we, the western or eoropean want right? Your guys should focus on your own region or the USA. I live in the US for 43 years. I saw it goes down hill so fast same as UK and they still worry about China.
As long as it benefits China, why should be outsiders be worried about how they spend their money
everyone one keeps saying the Chinese economy is going to implode, but it still seems to stagger along - the EV industry is booming etc
What a great colab🎉
Hey , they can't be doing worse than Germany and the EU 😂 , all roads are shifting East , if you don't see it, you're not paying attention.
The trouble with pouring vast amounts of concrete is it very polluting and it only lasts 2 or 3 decades.
Not the way Chinese companies pour it though. They often skimp on cement so it crumbles into dust even by hand.
Any thing built properly and Maintained, Will last. Throwing out a system that works for something not ready and in development,is greed and ignorance leading the way.
😂 Killing its economy while the west is desecrating the remains of its once powerful economy. Trillions in debt in yanksville due to almost a century of military occupations
As your economy is going now, I don't think you are in a position to give indications
Ia explica-ne tu mai bine cum sta treaba 😂😂😂
@@strigoiu13 There is nothing to explain. Everything is fake news of the West:
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
....
Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
Why dont you tell us the irrecoverable DECLINE of the US !
We literally discuss it almost daily.
What economists don’t talk about is the much bigger issue and urgency for the Chinese to spend their massive dollar denominated foreign reserve (accumulated over decades of trade surpluses) while Washington accelerates its money printing policy. For China, it comes down to either keep building trains even if nobody ride them, or sit & watch the value of their hard earn dollars eventually goes to zero.
china has been dumping their USD foreign reserve and accumulating gold
Pity they haven't been able to access the bulk of their foreign currency reserves. 😅
This makes perfect sense
China has 9 trillions overseas perhaps all in USD. It’s better sell it and spend in infrastructure back home unlike US in war after war.
@@petir2008yes they will need that Gold for maintenance of their Railways..........
USA
can print money and keeps its Carrier Fleet just fine
Great format, thanks! ❤😃
Glad you like it!
Patrick have you worked in China just out of interest ?
I really miss those brave men that instead of China say CCP
I always say CCP but China changed it last year and pretend the abbreviation was always CPC (Communist Party of China). Because CCP always linked to those bad images through the so called “west propaganda” lol. So funny how they change the truth very Orwellian.
What is Ccp, some anti-China thing?
@@ToriZealot Chinese and China isn't their goverment. That's really important to understand a Dictatoraship
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
today china is just too rich & powerful. us mexicans are very jealous of the chinese people. however, mexico has to put on a happy face and be happy for china... but deep down we want mexicans to be # 1. brave new world ahead...
Amazing collab, not the one I expected but appreciated nevertheless
First, China is a country with 1.4 billion people. The demand to go fast to anywhere within the country is shooting so high. Secondly, China has plans to develop Xinjiang and Tibet so transportation in and out the area is necessary. Third please do not apply any economy models that happened in the West on China, the economic scale of China is something that westeners have never imagined before.
If you measure the Chinese system using the yardstick and logics of capitalism, then it should have failed about 60 years ago.
When they first build high speed train in China, i took it and very few passengers. Today it's pack. Same with property eventually it will be purchase. Wise Developer will Keep building when material are cheap and sole with high profit.
Tofu dreg does not count.
@@vitawater4259your country doesn't have high speed train still run on 50 years old locomotive 😂
Still derailing everymonth.
Gotta disagree on the train example though. Highways are absolutely terrible awful investments and it makes way more sense to move people on rails… if one would strictly look at investments and returns, cars would basically be nonexistent.
Higher interest rates are bringing us a return to sanity.
I always figured China would go the way of Japan, bubble wise. Maybe so.
Everything is possible in ur dream 😂😂😂
Its call an economic cycle. Every country has it
It's Official when Patrick makes a video about it!
... after everybody made a video about it.
Look at the China, it was such a big country sit at the bottom of the 192 countries for about 200 years. When it climbs back, allow 100 years (which is 50% of the time).
I like this guy how he speak. Good pick
9:59 doesn't that contradict the academical point of view that lower priced companies (value) outperforms higher priced companies (growth companies)?
I think China, Russia and the USA are less than Steller atm.
Patrick Boyle, excellent!
Nice to see Patrick speaking without deadpan ironic snarking.
Boyle is knowledgable about western markets, but have no idea about Asia. He assumes that China works like the UK. For one thing few people see the full picture of Chinese accounting.
Great video on the economy
A major part of the China problem is the lack of a real property market. People don’t own land. The complex correcting mechanisms don’t exist in a command economy. President Xi can’t control everything despite what he might imagine.
In what country you are allowed to own land? When a family court can decide to give your wife your property it is already not your. Can you name a western country that ban your wife from claiming your property?
They have a 75 year lease, and can renew. Though the land ownership system is still developing.
@Teochewtuattthhang that's what to many lawyers and politicians get you. Filthy rich don't have that problem.
@PatRisberg owning your own property is the best way not to be a slave or surf, and be Free, or be a true self reliant nomad, or take up drugs... And move to California....
@@Storm4155commies own everything, not the common comrade.
The "whooshing" sound effect for the banners is very distracting.
Gets really boring listening to people talking down Chinese economy, been listening to this rubbish for the last 10 years. Tip of the day: try something original.
Think 🤔 about the fact that "money " can only be made when the lowest of wages are paid 😢😢
The rest of the money goes to economists to tell you why it must be this way
No mention of the elephant in the room, population decline?
@PatRisberg For China? In the near future? Not even close.
China's population decline is significant. In 2022, China reported a population decline of 850,000, bringing its total to 1.411 billion. This was the first population decline in decades, influenced by factors such as the "zero-COVID" policy and the effects of the one-child rule. The reduction in the labor force could push China to increase wages or bring in migrant workers. Additionally, the population decline may lead to increased labor costs, impacting one of China's key economic advantages.
The issue of automation, while important, might not be as immediate as the population decline in terms of its impact on China's economy. However, in the longer term, as the workforce ages and shrinks, industries that rely heavily on physical labor, such as manufacturing and construction, may face severe labor shortages. This could drive companies to invest more in automation and technology to compensate for the reduced workforce. Interestingly, despite the declining population, China's labor force was estimated to be around 791 million in 2021, and certain areas still have significant numbers of unemployed or underemployed workers.
So, while both points are relevant to China's economic challenges, the immediate impact of the population decline seems to be more pressing, especially considering the country's demographic shift and its implications on labor costs, economic growth, and political stability. Automation may become a more significant factor as the labor shortage becomes more pronounced in the future.
@@DefinitelyNotAMachineCultist it's not about the population (which is massively over estimated for other reasons) but the demographics of the age. If you have a billion 20-somethings and a hundred million retirees, that's a great economy. If you have a billion retirees and a hundred million 20 year olds... different story. The results of generations of One Child policy are already starting to come to fruition.
@@darthkek1953 Don't forget the general demoralization, which somehow seems to be even worse than in the West…
@@DefinitelyNotAMachineCultist oh yes. You might ignore a dictator if you have good living standards. You might ignore low living standards if you are free. But low living standards AND a dictatorship? NAW!
@@darthkek1953 Not even low living standards as much as general stagnation and resentment stemming from seeing how those who came before you had it easier than you, and are now passing more burdens onto you, at least in your eyes.
The 'lying flat' meme comes to mind.
There're even stories of parents tolerating physical abuse from their kids FFS.
Even the woke nonsense in California that the US tradcons always rant about can't hold a candle to this when it comes to social degeneration.
Legacy of that godawful Cultural Revolution combined with the one-child policy based on Malthusian nonsense.
EXCELLENT INTERVIEW
Thanks!
They want to go back to full swing commun-ism
National Socialism with Chinese characteristics.
They wouldn't be anywhere near what they are now, with out capitalist communism, if they went back to pure communism.. forget about it.
China is investing in infrastructure, research and development and winning the confidence of its citizens, the future domestic consumers who will cause export to be unnecessary, irrelevant, and redundant.
Did you read that in a CCP brochure?
Projection Bozo should stick to analysis on small scales. He has no clue about China's size, scale and speed because he hasn't lived in China, nor really experienced China. He has no clue about the culture so he's analysis China from his fixed outdated Western lenses and that's not sufficient to understand China from a macro or micro standpoint.
Take for example, High Speed trains maintanence is not an issue in a country with 1.4 billion people and the "Eye test" doesn't contradict this simple logic. Nor how much utilization problem in a country with 1.4 billion people. But of course these are big problems in small countries like UK or Ireland. Projections and Propagandized victim.
They just be hating on China