The End of China’s Economic Miracle
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- Опубликовано: 17 окт 2023
- NEW YORK, October 17, 2023 - Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, discusses his Foreign Affairs essay “The End of China’s Economic Miracle” and examines China’s political economy and its “economic long COVID.” Strategic Consultant Henny Sender, formerly of BlackRock Managing and Financial Times, moderated the conversation. (1 hr., 22 min.)
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If we're talking only in the context of an industry that needs a lot of cheap labor, then it's true. But if the talk is focused on the technological aspect, then the Chinese economic miracle is only at the beginning stage.
Must be CCP here...
@@couttsw Not really, in fact my country was one of the biggest victims of communism propaganda in the past. thousands of my countrymen were killed by the communists aided by weapons from the USSR and CCP.
But, as a rationalist and as a person who has had the opportunity to travel around China for months, I agree that currently Chinese industry is moving from cheap labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive.
We know now that Huawei has started to make their own OS and high-end chips that have been recognized worldwide and even surprised America.
We also know that their dominance in 5G shows how Chinese technology has grown and dominated in recent years, so America must use its influence to stop China from dominating 5G technology.
In crypto technology, we also know that Bitmain, Iceriver, etc. were all created in China from the start. And there are many other examples that show that China is pioneering its dominance in high technology-based industries. including in the electric car industry.
@@user-em5wy8zx7o your username screams CCP, or a BOT, try something identifiable or stay in hiding.
@@couttsw Hardly. They've still got TONS of technologies to steal from the rest of the world.
agree😂
Hahaha. There you go again? China has been collapsing for 3 decades.
This guy gets off the same train station as Gordon Chan.
He sounded like a hillbilly.
And don't forget Peter zeihan
been hearing about this end for the last 20 years.
Exactly - these people resent that fact China is slowing dominating the world economics.
I don’t think you can compare the geopolitical trajectory of China’s last five years with any other time since the days of Mao
@@amunra5330Must be why Chinese (esp. educated Chinese) have been leaving in droves to move to the West….
Nope Chinese who migrated to the west are now increasingly turning back to the motherland. Especially scientists and highly educated people.
What exactly been talking about in last 20 years is the economic rise of China that would eclipse that of America.
Another Chinese expert! Speechless!
You should be. Because China is crap.
I am a chinese and food is important in our culture@@michaelmarchal4004
The US government is funding billions of dollars to blame China. Most of the youtube channels are funded by the US government
Another internet troll 👿
Lol another China "expert". Asia Society's content is really going downhill ever since Kevin Ruud left.
come back when you hcinks start eating each other.
It's the easy way to be relevant, tell people what they want to hear
Actually Kevin Ruud is also rubbish.
kevin rudd is an arrogant china hater.
Thank you both.
I have never seen the Asia Society invited anyone from China to talk about China, and that reduces its credibility
Because its goal is to diminish China. And the anti-China Chinese normally have no logic when speaking, it's too easy to lose the audience.
The Chinese people don’t event trust their own “experts” , most of whom are just propaganda vehicles of the Communist party. Why should Asian Society give them a platform for their narratives? if anyone want to hear those brainwashing bullshit they can just go to see CGTV, the network owned by China.
Asia society is create to be anti china????
Very few of the guests ever been to Asia.
This is a fine example of stealing the Asia name to silence the Real Asian voices.
@@misterhill5598 you don’t need to be in north korea to know there are people starving.
Yes, China had already collapsed decades ago. No need to worry.
😂
So now is China New business opportunities for doing more business in New areas of business ?? And for sure will kill usa industries all????
How does one become a China expert without being able to read Chinese/ Mandarin?
It's better not to read Chinese/Mandarin because most of what is written in that language is distorted by brainwashing and information censorship.
Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
From @bklm1234 to
@bumbengtey8464...... Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
He is an economist, not a linguist, stupid.
By trusting second hand accounts … 😂
Mesmerizing.
We need a successful business person doing business in China to be part of this conversation to have a better understanding of what’s going on with its economy
most such people will not speak freely to avoid backlash
@@AKumar-co7oeThat’s so true. Nobody is willing to speak the truth to the public with the political-correct environment in the west. Everything is China bad.
@@AKumar-co7oe those who did become Jack Ma #2
> Those who were smart enough don't do public talking as much... some just use it the situation as an opportunity to shift their factory-resource to southern Asia as a counter to the tariff - while it also serve as a good way to secure their asset. e.g if Beijing for any reason decides to seal off mainland (e.g lost in a war and/or needs to push for political security with another cultural revolution) Then those businessman will probably be able to secure their asset oversea.
Some does it when sending their kids to study oversea (e.g buying the real estate for their children while they stay there for education-etc ~ it is (or was) one of the only few available ways to move wealth out that can't get individuals into trouble)
The economy is fine, it's natural that the growth rate is slower year by year.
@@andrewli9793 he's turning it into a war economy to prepare for invasion before 2030
That's very strange because what the speaker said is contradictory to what we see on the ground.
Tier 3 and 4 cities had more tourist than they can handle.
Slowing real estate sector is counted-balanced by the booming of automobiles, semiconductor, new energy, fashion and movie scene.
FDI from western world is quickly replaced by West Asia sovereign fund.
Record number of scholars is returning from United states.
The speaker painted picture of china that doesn't reflect reality.
These are the stooges doing the dirty work of their sour grape masters to bad-mouth China.
They think if they keep repeating something, it will become true.
They've said it a million times for the last 20 years, that china has grown tremendously but it's now the end. They have the memory capacity of a goldfish. They will never learn and their naivety will eventually lead to their demise
The sectors you mentioned are not comparable to properties in terms of comtributions to GDP, not mentioning some sectors like e-car are purely sustained by govt subsidies. the largest wave of emigration since reform era is happening, because people, especially with resources, have no trust and faith on XI' govt.
…..Almost 50% of Chinese independent tourist agencies & tourism-related businesses have folded. Tourism from Western countries (US, EU, AUS &JAP) has dropped almost 90% from pre-pandemic numbers….These numbers hold across all tiers….Other than from, perhaps, HK….Where, pray tell, are these “tourists” coming from?
They are all living in a coconut shell where they are masters of the land, conquerer of the oceans, rulers of the masses, lord over the weakest, smartest of the world, this is their self image living in this fast moving, fast pace 21st century.
only time will tell if he’s right
Well by tomorrow there'll already be another "China expert" who will predict China's downfall. They have the memory capacity of a goldfish
He isn’t.
Gordon Chang has been making this prediction on Lou Dobbs' show since 2000.
A 12 years old boy trying his best to analyze his grandfather. He even wrote several books about him. He is truly a good boy. Jiayou!
Here is a China Communist Party’s barking Dog! who is your grand father? Stalin? 😂
😂😂👏🏻👏🏻
The US government is funding billions of dollars to blame China. Most of the youtube channels are funded by the US government
Here we go again. We have been hearing this for decades and these jokers are proven wrong again and again.
Only Time will tell.
Wonder if he can speak Chinese
Which "Chinese" do you mean? Mandarin, Cantonese, Shanghainese, Hokkien, Hakka, Min, Gan, Xiang?
Swing left bias means “dreams about impossible goals”
This is October of 2023. What would you say now ? China economy is going to end when.
Congratulations 👌
Great video
The Chinese Miracle ended much earlier at around 2010.
The growth of economy from 2010 2020 was a mirage powered by large debt expansion.
What is happening now is because debt levels are so high that it drags the economy down.
But let's see what happens in another 10 years.
Your wish, you can join GORDON CHAN dreams. He has been predicting for 20 years. The country falling apart is United States.
China is about to overtake America exporting all of their tech at lower prices that undercuts America😢 America will be in crisis by summer 2024
the miracle is that the Chinese government spends it's money on improving physical infrastructure, education, research & development, medical and social support for it's people that aids in promoting and encouraging global trade... We in the West spend ours on illegal wars, regime change and sanctions that have been a drain on our nations' economic health... We decline while the regions of the East grow.
I see, thank you for telling me that it’s the end of the US economic miracle.
Not yet, for US still have $100 Billions $$$ to give away...
China's recent 3rd quarter GDP is 5.2%. Keep talking all the gloom and doom makes very little sense. If China economy is getting bad, the rest of the wor,d including the USA will for sure getting much much worse
I think not.. there is nothing China produces that the West absolutely needs. The CCP's new policy of promoting EV cars and solar batteries we don't want while forgetting toys, plastic components, etc, which we do - is going to doom what is left of the Chinese economy.
Brilliantly explained. Having spent my working life outside USA, I have studied lots of similar societies and nations. Incidentally, I was an economist and portfolio manager, and subscribe wholeheartedly to what is being propounded here.
can you talk about the topic?
No miracle. Just hard work.
There would be no modern China without access to US markets
@@malachite7287 sounds like the entire world owes USA and everyone should do what USA asks them to do to return the favor then? You can become a US dog at your own will but not me.
The end of the miracle?
As i understand it, china is expected to grow by 5% this year ??. While uk is 0•1 % at best .
This is not children's math. China needs a certain level of growth to handle it's coming challenges. These are complex issues beyond, "X is higher than Y".
@@DenOndeMistercare to elaborate more?
Posen is brilliant as usual! ❤🎉😃
Oh dear!
Too many commentators are not reading the headline or the presentation properly. No one in their right mind thinks China is “finished”. It is not. What is “finished” is the veery high compound growth rates. The days of double digit growth are over. China will gradually revert to the mean of about 3% growth for recently modern countries. Whether they can manage that respectable level of growth is another matter. But in no event is China going to disappear or become irrelevant.
Different from you guys,
China intelligent experts still predict China has potential to grow 5-8 percent per year until 2035
such as Lin yifu, who was the leading economist of world bank.
The problem is Xi . You guys are assuming he will do rational intelligent actions based on real data. That’s not the case. He’s fallen into the dictator information black hole. Nobody tells him anything bad. China was having rolling blackouts not that long ago for months. When Xi had a face to face with Biden, he asked Xi how things were going with the blackouts. Xi didn’t know about the blackouts. He found out from sleepy Joe. China has built enough vacant housing for the entire population of China.
Nope, Middle income trap here we go... If they are lucky. Enron style economic policies reconning hasn't even started yet. We know how this ends... Always the same... We just like to think this time it will be different... Ask Soviets or Venezuela - one time the very rich and powerful. Or Zimbabwe. Or Argentina... Or just 1945 Mao times. Everyone thinks this time will be different, you can mismanage the economy without the consequences... Nope, the show is only starting
Silly uninformed person. China is already finished.
@mkmcat 😂 When you wish upon a star
Make no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
I would see no country could hold their economy growth rate at high level, 5%GDP growth at this time, that will still shock many countries.
Well, Moldy India has a higher growth. The country is a shit hole still. They the billionaires slum lord😅
You misread China.
Again! 😅
China does not need anyone outside to worry . 😂
perhaps you should disconnect you vpn and stay inside your digital prison
@@chrystalnetwhy are you "so" sure about usage of vpn?
@@chrystalnetTry to get an education if u can afford it 🤣
there is nothing wrong by using vpn if people from mainland China。
“Asia society” should be renamed “China bashing by white people”.
What a magnificent back-and-forth and analysis by you both! And, at the end, the questioners. Thank you so much.
lol complete trash analysis
I agree. True brilliance and humility.
Miracle or not, the world has created an aggressive nation with no gratitude.
😂
It needs such experts to keep telling Americans they still have the best government and the strongest economy.
😂
Sorry , truth hurts
I don't remember hearing Stars and Stripes or Old Glory and seeing eagles blazing machineguns over the screen, so maybe I missed when they claimed US GREATEST NUMBER ONE A-OK! can you point out where they claimed we have the best government and strongest economy, please?
Saving not spending IS A GOOD THING😂😂 it make the economy more resilient
True but when something like 47% of chinas GDP growth was investment driven growth, at some point you need consumers to spend more and create consumer driven growth - as you run out of things to invest in- and you need that consumer spending to fuel continued growth in China’s GDP…
@@jonlbdg This things balance out. It is not one or the other but sure in time of doubt people will reduce spending.
It is not a bad thing and don't require government action that will only make thing worst and create a crisis.
, Thank you for eyes openning
A few bucked the trend and saw it coming!! From 2016 - Peter Zeihan speaking at an energy conference. You could date back much of his ideas several years earlier. Of perticualr imterst to China's fall checkout the Q&A @49mins. Linl below....
Economist's like Nick Glinsman and Kyle Bass called b*llshit on Blackwater years ago. Then several Japanese/Korean economist's began releasing scary data. Hong Kong diaspora have written books too. Eye opening stuff. It's like America and Germany were oblivious to what happened in 2013. Li Keqiang spilled the beans.. and low and behold China smashes open the piggy bank, starts building everything it can possibly build and the belt and road becomes a behemoth investment instead of an economic corridor.
3:29 and that started me thinking
📱Ringing XD .... ... shooting people with Phone 🤣🤣🤣
T____T Then ambulance ring at 2 minutes later. Better Call James, the Who.
In my college days there are students that come on a motorcycle, well dressed
and all the rest. They fail the exams. China reminds of them.
Yeah, sounds familiar, heard that before? In the 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 2023 and everyday. Guess what? Chinese EV cars are all over the world.
anyone buying huawei?? they have 7nm chip technology
Better to organise a forum : The End of the Economic Miracle in China or the U.S. ?
Neither US and China would stop growing. The entire world would suffer if any one of them declines. 2%GPD growth in United States is equivalent to the GPD of one country whose GPD ranks 20th in the world e.g.Switzerland.
@@kaimingraymondchoi9909 American economy grew at 1%, rock solid. China's economy grew at 5% and is collapsing. Ya?
I also question the 5% like you do. China is facing a hard time. US government stopped their importers importing goods from China. This affect the small and medium size manufacturers most. They are moving their production facilities from China to other Asian countries and Mexico. We all understand that and that's why we are working hard to survive.@@redbeansg
@@robinbreeds9217 you believe Biden n the liars cooking the data for him?
the guest offered an opinion 😐
If you want to know how well heeled and wealthy looking intellectuals look like, what they say and how they behave in their leisure, you are looking at it. Carl Jung would be envious. 😜😜😜
Thanks for telling me our country is going to end😂
Vredi vredi poslušati. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 😊 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Adam posen took it up side-down, based on his limit ability to access to policy and facts in chinese or association with chinese policy makers, by a series of shallow analyses of western views which are inaccurate in Asain , particularly China, context. That is probably the intention as his remarks are salable in the mainstrean medias in the US!
Giving millions of deaths in the US, it is non-sense to avoid the facts and human's natural resistance to virus after pandemic, and making assumption of the superiority of mNRNA vax. Finally there is no china economic miracle as the west would like to criticize the chinese as they came from a very low base at the begining, isn't it.
Why you are not telling the audience about biological laboratory the United States have all over the world I think you’re over 400 some and they have 800 m bases all around the world to. I don’t see any of you speak publicly.
Another CCP
The CCP do that enough for everybody
China is growing 4.9% in the third quarter and this guy said the coming collapse, I wonder where he is getting his degree
His degree is from Harvest university
@@tangkwoksang2343 no it is from Heilvadt Universitaet😂
look at your stock market! 3000 points? 😂 India’s market went to 1200% in the past ten years and China is still 3000 points like in 2000? 😂 the GDP 4.9% is a make-believe figure that only idiot will believe. again? look at your real estate market and your stock market.
and in the meantime, USA growth is just 1.2% at the same period.
@@tangkwoksang2343 not surprising...
I suggest this gentleman go read the Brundtland Commission report Our Common Future as a backgrounder for understanding the paradigm shift in the way China design it's development model.
One idea for China to get out of their “Evergrand builder” situation, in my opinion, is to do fire sales to the common people but not institutional investors. In order for the people to invest in their living with credit/ maybe some subsidized loans to general public.
the inanity of the comments here given the erudtion of the discussion is quite striking
Lots of cope
Why do you say that?
Great interview. Bravo! Interesting!
Chinese saying: this guy 不是蠢就是坏😂
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber to this channel
No worry let Chinese worry about it. Look for another dilusion .Indian military veterans
Do you want to bet that China is finished? I'd take your money happily.
It’s good to see a really great economist talk, unlike the 800 apparatchiks at Federal Reserve.
LOL All the China trolls in the comment section. Que the “It’s afraid” Starship Troopers meme😂
I wonder how these people feel on the last days of their live, knowing they have lied half their life about a country?..
U can’t wake someone who is pretending sleeping. So they will never come to realize he was wrong!
They congratulate themselves on their sophistication and intelligence. All extracted via the system they so artfully serve. It’s all supported via the taxes of those lesser beings they disdain.
It is not only an end, it is rolling back.
in your dreams
the west is is rolling back; China will rule for the next 3000 years
This is trade cycle every country is subject to, not just peculiar to China. US and Europee no exception. So what's the deal in this streaming?
Patton Oswalt will play this man in a film one day. Mark my words.
China have the best meritocratic and experienced leaders and government for the past 5 decades. China a massive country and have tens of key pillars in their economies. There will surely be revolving ups and downs in different sectors of the economy. China main growths is in their growth in foreign trades, infrastructure projects and it’s growing trades with 170+ countries now. For the past two decades China middle income population were growing fast and adding on the China’s GDP expansions.
Every countries have wealthy peoples investing some of their money overseas is normal and that will not seriously affect China government finances.
Lee Kuan Yew was always paranoid about the conditions how he governed Singapore even after he successfully took Singapore to became the world most successful and wealthy nation in the world.
Deng Xiaopeng and all his following leader China Central Committee were paranoid too and worried that nothing were perfect and constantly changing of their policies without the worry and needs with winning votes in the next election but through a team of meritocratic and experienced central government committees to implement changes from time to time. President Xi Jinping can be eliminated from his position by the few hundred Central Committee if he doesn’t perform well for their peoples and their country.
you must be Singaporean as you obviously know the reality in Asia much to the ground.
Sydney to write on China info
**learned how to use chopsticks, became china expert."
There is no END of China's Economic Miracle ! Since China-economic growth does not happen because of MIRACLE but HARD-WORK of all China citizens.
CORRECTION... not noted, over multi-millions of European, African, Middle Easter, American & etc.. are living in China today and are getting rich. One other secret of China, they welcome all commoners since Marco Polo time
Nowadays layman like me uneducated, also can become an expert because I know how to talk nonsense.
She just destryed the talk of this man!
THEY ARE UNSTOPPABLE GET READY
The idea that a country with an average weighted tariff of 2.5% is deliberately deglobalizing just bcuz trade as a share of GDP didn’t go up, seems like a really lazy & unprofessional take. American tariff rates are lower than almost anywhere else, & we absorb historically gigantic trade deficits with a contented a-plum that I think would be difficult to find any corresponding examples of.
As for the economics matters not stopping China…..Adam supposes that our trade relationship with China is to our benefit. It is not. Every state in the American union would be better off if the bulk of our international supply chains were with countries we can actually sell to in return, that don’t get free access to our R&D w/o any investment contribution themselves.
All I need is a miracle...
China offer it thru BRI, NDB and BRICS+6
Isn't it a great thing everybody here always wanted?
Jaka będzie polityka USA gdy ChRL uzna niepodległość Tajwanu ?
The female host sounds so eager to show off but really shallow
Name dropping and bragging of who she know to keeping up with her phony guest speaker spreading fake acquisitions of CCP China 💩💩💩
Funny how the host mentioned that she had to call her friend in McD Shanghai to check how many outlets are open during CoV? 😅 Also she trying to tell everyone that she comes from a family of doctors and very conversant on the medical updates. The session is without subjects heading where she & her guest is taking everyone around all subjects from the economy, finance, competitions, politics, manufacturing, government behaviour but ultimately dislike how Chinese government runs their country and ultimately instigating people to take out Xi Jing Ping. If USA can compete with China, then leave people alone. I wonder if these host and guest will have a session on USA and how they would like to take out their own President? Typical Americans, can’t look after their own back yard.
@@Rob-iz6nm - worst still, she is in such pretence of being so Americanised.
@@Rob-iz6nm her race has no bearing but what she try to portray to be will be her issue.
I have heard this claim for more than 20 years and it is a miracle indeed that these people still can gather the audience. Ok, time for me to leave now.
402 viewer is not an audience, but just paster by like me... not coming back.
He needs to meet Kishore Mahbubani.
What about the US? We're living on debt too. And the fact that other countries, like China, are worse than us, which draws in foreign capital. But how long is what we do sustainable?
Restricting China from getting technology that enables from building the most advanced weapons is doable and being done. This is being done in collaboration with many like minded countries. The US is building and nurturing relationships~ with Vietnam, Philippines, Mexico and dozens of others. The problems are China, Russia maybe Iran and certainly North Korea. Most of the world’s population is Asian. That would still be at least close to half without including China. I agree that even the headline MAGA is cringy but that is not the message from the current administration.
our relationship with Vietnam is fucking *weird*, man. They actually claimed we're their greatest foreign ally ten plus some odd years ago.
It's surprising that Asia Society is allowing comments for this session. It has been featuring speakers spinning one-way anti-China monologues with the main theme that China has changed because of Xi who is dictatorial and therefore a cause of China's downturn.
Almost everything that are being said is so different from experience on the ground and different from facts.
Just on covid itself, China puts life above business and saved more lives than it could have lost (compared to US?). As for covid vaccines, their effectiveness had been well verified outside China but required 3 doses instead of 2.
An Australian Jerry Grey has been in China for over a decade and documenting life in China in his RUclips channel, Jerry's take of China. He explains why most of the spins that are mentioned here are false. Another on-the-ground vlogger, a Belgian business consultant, Pascal Coppens, has written a book, 'Can China be trusted' explains why and how the West misunderstands China.
The China-US relation is critical to overcoming our common existential threats posed by climate change, arm race, Ai, and nuclear weapons
Asia Society sadly has deviated from its mission to promote better understanding of China to one of demonising China.
I'm also surprised this one didn't close the comment section. 😂 Wonder what gives them the courage to do so, usually they can't face the comments.
@@MissAwa515 🤣They finally believe in their own lies after repeating them so often!
Most of the Chinese "experts" on Western media are not really experts. It's a pity that genuine experts on China like Pascal Coppens are never seen on Western media.
Dream on
Great show.
Have you guys been smoking lately.
seems you should disconnect you vpn and stay inside your digital prison - don't smoke the wrong stuff in china if you want to avoid death penalty
Until proven guilty
No, they are actually praying if not braying!
Fyi, the locals are happy in China.
There might be some truth here but the boy has cried wolf way too many times. This stuff is now a bad joke.
All these hopeful haters wishing fall on China is laughable. Haters will always hate, China will always rise😂
The topic should be the end of good trading relationship between China and the West
FF 2 months and the decline is even more true
Are they graduation from Hardfart University ? in humble opinion they sound just like another Flash Gordon Chang gastric acid prophecy 😞 😷 just sayin ,,,,
CCR's tune about CCP :
I see a bad moon rising
I see trouble on the way
you can also invite Gordon Chang to enforce your views.
I think both speakers were paranoid about China instead
An incompetent speaker on a topic he does not fully able to apprehend …
Seems to me you westerners should be more involved in western countries and not in the affairs of asian countries!! Let Asians run and admin this asian society!
You fail to understand that the fate of the Chinese economy has significant implications for western economies. We have a duty and a right to take an interest in it.
@@budawang77 I think you should solve your problem first
China has four thousands of continuous history
It is the oldest continuous civilization
Does it tell you something
His essay is so good that you can roll it up and smoke it 😂
⚠️🇺🇸⚠️ The end of the USA economic miracle started in 1970! Kept in a coma state with debt for last 23 yrs.
Damn... It's a waste of time watching this.... Asia Society please find a better speaker...