‘Roaring 20s’ Is Back: S&P To 8,000 Says Economist Who Called Rally | Ed Yardeni
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, updates his outlook for the stock markets and economic growth.
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Ed's last interview with me: • Economic Collapse Or B...
*This video was recorded on June 17, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Market outlook
4:51 - Threats to growth’
9:30 - Small businesses
12:15 - Fed rate cuts
15:40 - Inflation
19:38 - Taylor Swift and BoE
20:41 - U.S. dollar
23:00 - Tariffs
25:12 - Credit card delinquency
26:24 - Sector outlook
#economy #stocks #investing
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Do you agree that the S&P 500 will hit 6,000 by 2025? Comment below where you think the markets are headed and don't forget to subscribe!
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Surf shark. Don't surf without one.
It is only right to maintain a diversification over growth, defensive, dividends and speculative growth stocks. The tech sector, especially those companies with close ties to artificial intelligence have made me over ~$400k this year and I’m only 15months into the markets!
Go girl! I'm curious about which stocks are the best performers... I started investing over a year ago and now have over 53 stocks in my portfolio, with $50k invested. However, I am barely breaking even.
NICE. I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I’ll be 44 in October and I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the political tussle going on in the US and current market trends
Great advice here. Keep it simple, buy things you only understand, take some risk but don’t try to shoot the lights out.
The market may seem daunting but trust me it’s quite fun and rewarding with the right info. I’d suggest you consider consulting with a few fiduciary investment advisors to get the best advice. They can at least start you out on the right path! I work with a CFA who has managed my portfolio quite tactically, which basically means active management-- and going where the money is being made, while I crack on with something more interesting.
I'm in the same boat. I'm about 90% in cash. I didn't get in on some things early enough and I'm not a day trader so I'm not buying all time highs when there's a flashing light saying something is going to break. Everyone says find a good financial advisor for guidance but that's harder than you would think. Most of the ones I’ve encountered only take VIP clients, hope you don’t mind, would you be willing to give a referral? I really could use all the help I could get
This guy is saying the evonomy continus to grow. WRONG. govt spending is growing not the evonomy
Yep. Government spending as a percent of GDP had expanded to 47% during the pandemic (a record even exceeding the WW2 era government budget of 45% of GDP). That money is still percolating through our economy causing its Cantillon inflation. As the government spending pulls back to "normal", we will start to realize how much economic distortions have occurred.
I wish I could post a picture of the two city workers standing 3 feet from each other that that have been cleaning a 6 foot piece of path for about 4 hours now.. lol economy is doing great, we have never been more productive !!
The economy is not growing. The debt is increasing. There’s a difference.
@@gustavis85The more reason why the melt up will continue
Currency debasement won't cease, the melt up WILL continue
Possibly a few companies creating new value but not nearly the value they are commanding in the market.
Small business is doing well?
That is the insane talk of a blind person living in a bubble.
Remember 2008 when he felt we would see a "shallow recession" market fell 40% following that prediction... hard to take anything he says seriously given his only motive is to ratch up appearance fees.
he's just a parasite talking his books like the rest of these tapeworms
@@AMP98765 Anyone giving you predictions out into 2026 is a hack, they’ve no idea what’s to come just as he didn’t in 2008. They get by on the fact the market generally goes higher, then paint themselves as an “authority”
He nailed it this year!
@@TheInflationGuy You Miss the point, the market moves higher, that’s the reality, say it’ll go higher 100% of the time (like he does) and you’ll be right 70% of the time. Ask him to predict when it goes down, he can’t, and his track record in that respect has been abysmal.
@@glowwurm9365 the only thing that keeps these tapeworms in business is the criminal activities of the central planners 100% of the time.. take away the money counterfeiting and he might be right around 51% of 52% of the time.. about the real rate of economic expansion.. but regardless his system, and the other parasites like him, is ultimately doomed to failure when the currency implodes.. i.e. when the dollar is no longer the reserve currency and the activities of the Fed are hastening its demise.. so his plan will work until it doesn't
he's out on a limb here...........bookmark this link.......economy and market look like they're rolling over
SPX TO 8000, don’t cry, u will stay sidelined in 2028 too
Indeed I will, Buffet Indicator at 192% ? Price-to-Sales at 300% ? Schiller PE at 35 ? Enjoy the "gains" ahead
@@jaykraft9523 3000 before 8000.
@@jaykraft9523 bookmarked your comment to come back for a good laugh
If the government wasn't spending money we would be in a depression.
The feds can pull the plug at any moment
@@patrickslomka2017 the plug could also be pulled by market forces outside the fed’s control
David Hunter has been calling for 7,000 since the beginning of the year!
since the beginning of three years ago… there , fixed it
Nothing worse than a guy kissing the feds ass.
Blasphemy! Powell is the second coming of Christ
😂@@duanejackson6718
Yep, just like CNBC Steve Lies-man, he is the biggest Fed Cheerleader, it’s so disgusting!
His 3 yr forecast will be reached in 3 months
Wrong again genius
@@bdek68 😆😂🤣🫵🏼
old man early onset, living in his fantasy world!
Genius
The economy is not growing. The debt is increasing. There’s a difference
And the dollar is deflating like ice cubes melting in our hands.
Melt up? Ha!!! Retirement home is calling!
This guy needs to cut WAY back on magic 🍄🍄🍄.
this will be hard to listen too - my sentiment is with DDB (Danielle Demartino Booth). - Double D Danielle
DD 👙
At least i hear some arguments from Daniela. This guy is boolish by profession
@lavague7648 lol. I'm bullish. After 50 years of saving in fiat I've debanked and finally see a bump in my " Income". Anything I can't afford to lose I buy bitcoin. NonETF self custody. #coldWallet
Life gets easier on a bitcoin standard.
I am all-in SQQQ prior to airing of this interview
Lol. For 2 years I've held sqqq. Still holding a bit. But stacking sats with every btc dip.
Me SQQQ calls
Me too!!!
I rather follow WB, he is stacking up cash. Why would he do that if it’s a bull market????. WB knows a major correction is near and when it happens, it’s buying at a discount time!!!
The hugely inverted yield curve is SCREAMING for the Fed to cut rates. Disinflation is everywhere except in lagging indicators like insurance premiums and the nutty stat called "owners equivalent rent" !
Good to get different perspectives like this one on your show David. Was a nice listen.
How come bears never predicted what actually happened???? But when Yardeni largely predicted what did happen, he's called crazy.
Bears are coping hard
7-10 stocks my friend! Look at equal weight and small caps. 70% plus of all stocks are under their 2021 highs. Wake up
Sometimes its okay to be bullish. Sometimes its okay to be bearish. Being bullish because old people noticed the AI Chatbots and novelties we've already been enjoying online is a bit too far. It would be one thing if there was an actual breakthrough in AI that was profitable. Right now its just speculation. AI isn't saving much money at all and not generating money on the other side either.
Hahaha what happens after thousands of banks collapse. What happens when everyone realizes we're screwed with our national debt and the interest owed. What happens when more countries dump our bonds??? Hahaha
Back in the 80s my local WF chained their doors Shut. With the contents of my Safety Deposit Box inside.
Self custody.
#NoTrusted3rdParties
it's all just digits in the computer. if we let "them" take everything because they clicked a bunch of digits into a computer then we got what we deserve
bitcoin will boom ;)
@brianrbowman4262 we deserve transparency. Honest policies that protect the consumers. And prevent predatory speculation from destroying the people. Oh wait... bitcoin does that. Transparency scarcity portability Store of Value.
SP500 8000 in a year means P/E 30+ sure let’s assume people are really that crazy to invest at that level
The numbers are eerily similar. From August '21 to September '29, the Dow rose by 496%. From March '09 to now, the Dow has risen by 519%. It could well be that we are indeed back in the roaring '20's, and it's September '29 again!
Also, April 2008, before the markets dropped 50%. .. Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research is one of many economists who expect a short, shallow recession during the first half of the year with a recovery starting by fall, and he projects that S&P 500 operating earnings will rise 7% for the year. Yardeni also notes that the price/earnings ratios of big value stocks are quite low and that growth stocks are the cheapest they've been in more than a decade.
I need Mr. Yardeni. My bias is bearish; his is bullish. Even where I may not agree with him, and even when it's obvious he simply disregards data to the contrary of his opinion, it still does me good to hear him. I've made too many mistakes over the years heeding my bearish inclination and risk aversion.
It's all concentrated in a few stocks. Without AI tech basically the entire market is flat. I know bc most of my IRA investments are in dividend equity ETFs and they've been flat for almost two years. I expected things would blow up a lot sooner but it turns out everyone has decided a graphics card company with shaky fundamentals and no ability to power the AI rigs they've concocted. Not to mention the inevitable regulation that will come down the pipe when 40% of the entire population is put out of work by AI.
Consumer confidence falling, gov debt skyrocketed, ability to pay this debt on a knife edge, low breath in the market. Great forecast 🤣
David!!! Is this the top? You don’t have a doom and gloom guest! My world makes no sense I can’t count on anything!!
Thank you David
It's always good to get a different point of view, even if it is idealist in contrast to so many analysts today, whether economic or geopolitical. However, I do agree with what many are saying that we are one crisis away from total disaster. There is so much uncertainty out there, and these crisis come at a time when the wealthy investor class and their swarm army need to make a buck and control incoming global shifts.
True. 1920's a credit debt bubble, to Dow $380, 18 ounces of gold. 2020's a credit debt bubble to Dow $38,000, 18 ounces of gold. Too blind to see it is all just debasement, inflation, a massive government debt bubble? Gold is money. All else is man made credit. Protect yourself.
Now?
Bitcoin 👍😀
@@claybomb1064 gold will be your safe bet😉😉
If you don't hold it it's not yours.
@@427vot My 🍆?
Let's see how this ages. I don't know, seems like some pie in the sky numbers. This market is heavy right now
If you can’t see a recession is looming you’re not really paying attention or looking at the wrong data
Why is there never a remark on the benefit to savers regarding higher interest rates?
Higher rates help offset inflation so retired people can spend on the goods and services that they need.
In the 1960’s savings rates were 7% or higher and no one complained.
A nation of speculators is not heathy for any country.Plus the house always wins!!!
The last part of your comment is correct.. lol but if you think the bank has ever paid you more interest than the inflation rate you don't understand where the bank gets the money to pay your interest
The "interest" or Savings-money earns can't compete with the Rate of Inflation. Broken money. And mis aligned incentives. Bitcoin fixes that. Btc grows over time. The dollar is dying.
You are dead right, Frank. We do need decent interest rates for savers. Agree 100%.
Inflation is around 3.3%. Online savings accounts pay 4.75% interest.
Nice question. The cd ladders at 4% and 5% over the last few years are barely ok. But my bitcoin wallet is getting fatter and is in the green over same two years. Zero is the only wrong amount.
It's the money printing that's growing. The govt expenditure continues to grow on the back of money out of thin air.
The non government economy is in an iron lung. Without the money printing it would be in a catastrophic depression.
The s&p grows with the money supply. The s&p growth shows the true inflation rate. The market has nothing to do with company profits.
You have excelled post Kitco and you are now one of my favourites. Ian in New Zealand :)
Love how he compares interest rates to before the GFC and concludes 'yep this is level where ge economy preforms well '
"I don't really expect the unemployment rate to be rising mush from here" 23:35
This one has potential to age well haha
😂
Early video today David. Thanks
Crazy prediction
So we are .1% increase in employment that would indicate a recession. but not concerned about jobs. losses. This is absolute clown world.
David, where did u find this FOSSIL?!?!
HE'S SOOOO OUT OF TOUCH he claims low end wages are going up, what a joke
Great quick questions, David. Thank you Dr. Yardeni for your insights and most interesting outlook (i hope you are right, because equities is where i am at, but missed out on the tech stocks).
ty great show great optimistic guest ty Yardeni
The problem I have is that I look around and outside of the top 10-20 percent everywhere I see folks deep in bad debt, and they just keep doubling down! Folks making $50k with tens of thousands in CC and student loan debt, they aren't even living paycheck to paycheck, rather they are living credit card to credit card! And this is the situation for the vast majority of the folks in this country!
Interest rates for these Clearly this situation is going to come to a head at some point in the near future.
Thank you 🙏🏽 ed
Good to see a different point of view
Interesting interview!
Great information brother 👍😊
Makes no sense.. Shiller PE is at 36 when it should be at 15, so for it just to return to historical averages either we have a 50% crash or a doubling of earnings, if we go to 8000 by 2030 then earnings have to triple by then which is a fantasy
Technology Revolution: Normies and old people learned about AI chatbots we had years ago.
It is good to hear the bullish point of view. I get tired of the endless doom and gloom that often turns out to be wrong. Sure there are some negative economic indicators, and there will eventually be a recession, but you cannot spend year after year waiting for the next recession while missing out on stock market returns.
He also called a rally 24 years ago and got it really wrong. Go look at his interviews from back then.
Agree or not, you gotta love the optimism.
He seems to be a pretty good top signal.
vertical in one stock, how can he not acknowledge that this is lunacy . nifty 50 vs nifty 3
No idea but no way this supports 8,000
Bitcoin under 20,000 maybe 15,000
Apple 110-120
Things like that
Housing down big
It’s coming but may take to 2033 but could happen 2028 can’t predict with the spending
The consumer is broke.
What was his take on small caps? Massive rebound?
Most likely shorting the market if he is smart.
Beware the Ides of July. Just about time, DT is to be sentenced around 7-11, and 7- 12 will begin the big correction. Yes, the Feds will reduce rates as the market and economy begin to tank. That is a reason for rate reductions.
I Agree S&P 500, 8000 by 2026
Is called Hyperinflation
FED 2% inflation target , not happening anytime soon
The glory era for perma-bulls is coming to an end. This is a disastrously bad call, I'll definitely screen shot this one, Ed Yardummy.
Resilence of the economy and consumer, other than government reports which all have been debunked, what is the evidence of this because it conflicts with consumer and small business sediment
Yes ±Flokong! Great pick! ±Flokong rocks!
He is right until he isn't.
Tunnel vision over seeing the big picture.
Naive perception.
When the nvidia bubble pops and everyone is bankrupt it's too late.
Rents will come down ? Sure, ok.
Clearly ±Flokong was a right choice. Hope to learn more from you this is pure knowledge
Ask him about his year 2000 call.
Going on to repeating it soon or late someone will get it right … 2 years 3 years 6 years down the line …
I respect your work mate so you say ±Flokong good one to use?
We might get that melt up to a little over 6k this year but that long term prediction is pretty cute
Do you think ±Flokong will pump before ETH?
Yardeni has nailed this market he and Tom Lee give the guy his due. Geez.
Great show David. What's with the steady drip noise during the ad reads? Forces me to skip the ad read.
Will ETH 2x? 3x? Maybe. But add two more 00 to that for ±Flokong having 200x or better
I heard SP to 8000 eventually. The rest of the interview and the reasons provided don't make too much sense.
think of the numbers as Monopoly Money...does that help?
Fantasy.
Your labor for their worthless paper. Hmmm. Bitcoin is savings for your Energy. Your Labor. Your "salt".
Send iiiiiiiiiiiiit🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Does this brilliant economist/analyst understand that markets correct on average of -30% over the last 11 rate cut cycles! Embarrassment
Lfgoooooo. Send it.
N U M B E R S!!!!! GUYS !!!! NUMBER GO UP !!!! lmfao
LmAo 🤣! 2:13
Bulls Stampeding !!
Yes.
And from my bitcoin perch waaaay over here...i can hear the thunder of distant hooves.
It's good to be early.
DL- your hair rocks.❤
i think i've found the exact opposite of Peter Schiff
The disadvantage of old coins is that they can't have so much exponential movement. ±Flokong is fresh and young and lovely 🐸
There is no second best. Stack btc sats. 😎
His unemployment reading is a bit shallow and too optimistic.
This was one of the best videos! But ±Flokong is running so hot
Binance listing ±Flokong is set in stone. 🔥
±Flokong another Floki stronger than usual alt coins. If any alt matters it is ±Flokong
All guys stacking ±Flokong before next bull are smart apes for sure
I see ±Flokong with 50x, maybe even 100x. Binance also gonna have that
Omg so bullish on ±Flokong! ATH next month? 🔥
Been collecting the ±Flokong it never lets us down
Um nope.
Outstanding guest & host ..Wonderful insights & discussion:)))❤❤❤😊😊😊❤❤❤
Seems like he’s ignoring a lot of indicators of downturn.
I wish I had the rosy outlook he has. Seems he's not considering the global factors as much as he should.
This guy is a joke! He was also talking about a “rolling recession.” 😂
There was a recession in tech especially software
@@BootsieTheGreek What recession? 2-yr. & 10-ye. did not un-invert, no negative GDP prints…
Myriads of restaurant chains and countless websites selling Chinese made goods do not make an economy.
Neither do armies of baristas with worthless PhDs come anywhere to being a skilled and useable workforce.
Stock market gains are propping everything up so expect the authorities to do whatever it takes to avoid a crash.
Rich guy, surrounded by rich guys. Enjoying the matket and high fed funds. Oblivious to increased business failures and the struggles of everyday people.
2x is too small but definitely daily possible with the ±Flokong
If you own a business with customers, maybe get out a sharpie and paper with tape. Tape your inflating prices on the door so people know how much to pay going in. Then they know ok 15% tip, because if they take 30% tip from a price you didn't know. I came back in and said I want my tip back... haha, geez. Quit the price gouging huh?