While I don't think that software engineers as a whole will be replaced, I fear that because of all these new tools available to developers, there might be less need for as many of us as there are. If I'm able to output 3x the work I normally could while using these tools, then in theory a company will only need 1 developer in order to do the same amount of work that 3 could. While I'd like to believe that this added efficiency will just make companies more efficient, the reality of the current job market is that companies will look to cut costs in any way. Also, if my job is easier because of these tools existing, then there is a weaker argument for my salary to be as much as it could be. I'm really hoping that I'm on the wrong track with this logic, but it is a big fear as someone who's about to graduate next semester
There's an analgous situation from history for this: the maturity of CAD/CAM and low cost networked workstations in the late 90s for mechanical engineers. This really reorganized things to favor entry level engineers, because it increased productivity, made collaboration much more efficient, and supervision and management easy. So you could break up a problem into tiny manageable bits and have CADmonkeys do it, where as before you may have needed a small team of mature engineers to handle the project. Honestly I don't think that's a bad thing. It evened out in the end, since it expanded the demand for engineers overall and there's still team leaders and senior engineers. It's just there aren't as many "elite rockstars" as in the past, where special talent could really produce special results. But I think it's really great. Everyone's productivity will increase. The whole marketing cycles of hipster frameworks/languages du jour is likely to finally DIE, because it will be trivial to pick up new paradigms with expert assistants. THANK GOD.
"I think that ChatGPT will be like a compiler. Nowadays, fewer people write in Assembly or machine code and use compilers and other programming languages instead. In the future, coding will likely evolve to another level and become more accessible to more people. I believe that coding will focus more on program architecture rather than just the coding itself."
This is definitely the most grounded and realistic assessment of the likely impact of AI in SW development. Having been in IT for over 30 years I smiled when he says "the next big thing" has always been touted as our replacement. It never has been and there are way more people working in tech now than there were 35 years ago when I started.
Sry but I think your in denial. AI is improving an an exponential rate, not linear, meaning it will become so good that a human will get kicked out of the equation, an AGI will be able to do everything in a software engineer job. All these requirements that you just described, an AGI is easily capable of understanding all those and it will go much beyond that. And I’m not talking about ChatGPT per se, just AGI in general will replace software engineers. Your only considering what GPT-4 is not good at right now for example, but again, your forgetting it’s improving at an EXPONENTIAL rate, meaning it will be much much differing just 5 years from now. Once companies start seeing that AGI’s are better at building software than human software developers, sorry but humans will get replaced, not have their abilities enhanced, but just replaced. The company is just trying to increase profits, there’s not sympathy or attachments involved
Oh. IT will be better exponentially...but at what? The way AI is designed and how they learn, there are some biological things they just can't have. They rely too much on databases and can't come up with anything new. For example, they aren't creative. Much of Ai art is plagiarized and it all is just learning from what other artists have made.
Gotta be honest here: not in the degree for software development. I'd rather consider it as a beginning for AI, Machine learning and Data Science master, since not only is considered the best series of jobs by job reviewers, but are the highest paid jobs in Silicon Valley. So, in synthesis: less software development, more machine learning jobs, and less IT secondary school programmers & more mathematics engineers So... Yeah... Results win after all. But to be honest, I take no pity for traditional artists and their jealousy for AI.
First off, people aren't gonna credit the AI company for generating AI images for their artbooks. Paid users essentially own all assets they create using AI image generation, so they will credit themselves for creating the image. Secondly, you're saying AI is not capable of producing the same quality work as human artists? Check out: Midjourney Showcase
dude ai art won't replace artists because animation companies and art software/hardware companies like Adobe or Wacom, won't do most anything AI art, because they don't want to lost their audience...
Raw opinion, the people who believe AI will replace programmers, are likely not programmers themselves or they are in IT adjacent to programming and have maybe read some code or worked on simple code and are assuming a lot. I have been programming professionally going on 5 years now. Mostly in Endpoint work and system integration. I have attemtped to get a few AI systems to produce something even small enough to be staging worthy (no luck). This video is ehcoing my thoughts exactly. An AI is missing the most important attributes of a programmer, and its not the ability to code. It is the ability to critically think, analyze and problem solve. AI currently is only able to utilize the informaiton provided in its data set that is is trained on, and even then its statisics at play. The most common pattern is provided, usually the best solution is the path least traveled and an AI will not be able to ever provide that path based on its design.
I agree. " An AI is missing the most important attributes of a programmer, and its not the ability to code. It is the ability to critically think, analyze and problem solve." So is ChatGPT is really a "true" AI? I don't think so. Also I hear for about 10 years that we will have self driving cars, Elon Musk in 2014 said it will be in next year, and in 2023 a Tesla facing several court cases for laying that their cars have ability to self driving.
I'm a mechanical engineer and doing some coding on the side in CAD tools and add-ins. I can only speak of CAD development and in this field it is severely lacking. Even for fairly simple applications, it is awful. I've thought in the beggining that it would be a miracle tool and would disrupt the job market but at this point I'm pretty confident that in the next ten years it will not.
but if you study their methods of learning..... there are just some things about humans that aren't in neural networks so AI *cannot* learn this, this I think is scientific proof (or at least inference) of the human soul.@@finalsecretofchrono1339
Programmers have been copy-pasting code since years ago. It's not something new. Like you said chat gpt will be a tool to use, like stack exchange, google, etc. Having said that, at some point far in the future, Skynet will become reality and will threaten humanity like it happened on Terminator 🤷🏻♂️
I agree that it won't replace us. I've been using GPT-4 to help me write unit tests. I had to spoon-feed it step by step, file by file, and in the end, it still hallucinated a whole bunch of stuff in my code. Needless to say, it is a helpful tool, but replace us, maybe one day, but definitely not now, not until they solve the hallucinating problems.
I was strongly in the 'it will replace us' camp. I've made a complete 180. Not only do I think ai will not replace us, I think it's the next blockchain/smart contract type of hype. I really thought hard about this, and I think ai will be a flop. I know that seems crazy to say.
@@naturelife7536 Not him, but my 2 cents. Calculators didn't replace mathematicians. They made it easier for them to do their job. AI is the same. Ultimately our job is to design software solutions for problems people face. There are a multitude of considerations to make that require a level of human insight and abstract understanding that AI lacks/cannot ever replicate. It can help write code snippets, but it is utterly incapable of understanding the actual problem. You're still in school so you probably don't have much exposure to coding in the real world. A lot of people meme about the DSA leetcode interviews when the job is "center div," but the reality is our work involves projects with hundreds of classes, thousands of functions, and orders of magnitude larger amounts of code. An AI will never be able to understand and implement the architecture patterns we use, the reason why we choose certain principles over others. Ultimately all it can do is help us with small tasks that are the same thing as a mathematician doing ln(3).
No. There are many fields (especially where being right is critical) where human input and understanding makes or breaks the code. CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) is difficult for a reason: many of the breakthroughs have been to eke out extra processing power, but more often it is via mathematicians or engineers finding clever ways to reduce or correlate the Nav Stokes equations in a novel way. This is letting alone the extreme difficulties associated with "non-math" systems. Chemical systems (kinematic chains, by-products, etc) have similar computational limit issues: there is just too much to capture and compute, and so reasonable simplifications are necessary. How much error is enough error? How good is good enough? Being 'wrong' can have catastrophic consequences, and it isn't wise to leave that to AI. Obviously, this is just with more of the hands-on, 'engineering' end of things, but I suspect that the point you make--human understanding and knowledge of what a customer wants being critical to good programming--is widespread in nearly all of coding jobs.
No, it CERTAINLY won't replace programmers. ChatGPT can, given a description, return a small snippet of code. But I think overall what it generates is trivial. There is still the matter of understanding the problem abstractly, what the constraints are and what we are trying to solve, and architecting a solution. That is, the abstract problem solving component of writing code that is separate from the specific implementation in a specific language and environment are separate things. And LLMs like ChatGPT understand NOTHING. It isn't an expert system, it's a neural net that mimics language. So it can't reason about anything. What I predict will happen vis a vis ChatGPT/LLMs and programmers is like what happened when CAD/CAM and networked workstations became mature and viable for Mechanical Engineers. The tools are so good, and fill in the skill gap, that most of the demand will be for codemonkeys (just like CADmonkeys), and salaries will drop for these positions will drop. Most positions will be of this type. Gone will be the days of "rockstar" hipsters that are just good at quickly memorizing hipster frameworks/fashionable languages du jour. What I mean is that ChatGPT or assistants will flatten the field. There won't be these "rockstar" positions (because most of them are unwarranted in the first place), but the productivity will open up in new dimensions that the sheer NUMBER of available jobs will open up. You won't have the elitism and barrier to entry. I think it will be nice. And alot more cool code will end up being written that will solve real problems, which is out of reach right now.
I’m in WGU for software engineering and let me tell you this video was definitely needed. What you said makes a lot of sense. If anything AI and chatGPT are here to make our jobs easier not replace us. Awesome video!
I graduated from WGU CS in February 2021. Got my first Software Engineer job in June 2022. Been working for a year and loving it! I wouldn't worry too much about AI. It's dumb as bricks when it comes to writing real-world code. Even if it improves, there's no actual reasoning or ingenuity involved. You'll still need people that know how to ask for what's needed, how to spot errors in generation, and how to actually integrate the code.
I’m almost 4 years in as a Dev in the industry & I totally agree. Maybe that’s not enough experience to comment but whatevs. Yeah, how is AI going to “sit in” on the endless Agile meetings and attempt to grasp the multitude of contexts / subjects that can happen in a single meeting? Is AI going to “sit in” during a backlog refinement and refine a story and the stakeholders are going to be comfortable with that? Ok, maybe companies ditch agile at some point but I don’t see this happening as it seems companies are so heavily invested in it and if you as a human attempt to go against the Agile flow you get treated like you’re sporting a cubs hat in downtown St. Louis. I digress. Personally, this is going to be an awesome tool for me. Lastly, if you happen to work in the finance industry on the tech side, it is so heavily regulated and our legislation in the US tends to be so slow… you get the point.
One viewpoint that I heard, is that they think that there may be an influx of unskilled "programmers" flood the job market. But good Programmers/Developers are still going to be needed. Someone who holds a programming position doesn't just write code, they have many other responsibilities related to the role. They also work as someone who informs, educates, and integrates technologies. Another point is that while Chat GPT may help speed up the development process, there are still so many businesses and areas in the world that could benefit from a good programmer coming in, assessing their needs, and helping them to integrate their workflows and accelerate them with technology.
Ai is incredibly useful, but it’s nowhere near replacing programmers. At the moment it’s essentially the greatest encyclopedia the world has ever created, but it struggles at doing complex things. I always see the narrative “Well, if it keeps getting better exponentially, it’ll do anything we can do and become an AGI”, but we could be decades away from exponential growth, if that every happens. We’re already seeing the limits of LLMs, as it takes an order of magnitude more compute to power GPT-4, which is only marginally better than GPT-3.5.
One thing that no one has brought up for discussion is the need for verification of code. It's very easy to just generate a snippet of this or that, but a professional needs to review it before it gets implemented. Think of it as code review. I can see more jobs being created just from this aspect alone. We will need legions of verifiers, tackling everything from business logic to security concerns. Coding is more complicated than people think, especially when you are addressing complex end user needs, and it's not as clean as people think either.
probably... but most people use python and python was built on C. Now Pseudo-Code will be treated as a programming language. We are still telling the computer what to do. It's just a new language, or another level of abstraction.
I think ChatGPT will replace entry level jobs potentially. There will be less of them and the industry will not know that it is a problem until too late. Additionally, it will depress wages.
Well, the fact is that not all will be replaced, but many will. The workforce will be reduced. It's important to be realistic. Yes, a senior developer is required to gather requirements and communicate them to the mid level and junior developers. It's the juniors who are truly "in danger". We lost a junior at work due to downsizing and not to be rude but I don't even miss him at this point. I have started passing all the work to ChatGPT that I used to give him
Disagree that AI will replace SE or even programmers. Also disagree that ChatGTP is good at producing code. It sucks at it, it provides great examples but once you want it more complex or longer code it goes all south. Also, it takes everything literally and it's like talking to a 5 year old. Yet, super useful to lead you into the right direction and generate examples. It can't even replace coding, far from it.
These type of videos seem to be deliberately short sight, much like the famous "you'll never need more than 640k" quote, except it wont take years to be even more incorrect. It has been months since the popularization of LLM AIs, and it's already creates an existencial threat to many careers, so it wont get any better in that aspect. Some incredibly niche jobs will appear as kind of "AI" caretaker to keep it aligned, but even decision making will be left to the AI.
I asked GPT4 and it said: "While ChatGPT and other AI models can assist software engineers in various tasks, they are not likely to replace them entirely. AI models can help with code suggestions, bug fixes, or even generating simple code snippets, but software engineering involves a lot of complex problem-solving, creativity, and understanding of the domain-specific requirements that cannot be easily replicated by AI. Instead, AI technologies like ChatGPT can be seen as tools that can complement and enhance the work of software engineers, making their tasks more efficient and helping them focus on higher-level design and problem-solving aspects of their work."
i absolutely agree. Being human is what makes us distinct from technology through our creativity and intuition like you stated, as well as our emotions. AI was built BY code. And many non-programmers need to understand the creation can never replace the creator.
Well, ML models like ChatGPT are still being developed. There are people who maintain the ML model. Such ML models will help programmers write better code and suggest better ways to maintain the software or the hardware. At most, they will be able to take over a lot of the work that programmers do, but they'll never completely replace programmers. It more like the relation between JARVIS and Tony Stark (you'll know this if you read Marvel comics or watch their movies).
AI will without a doubt replace some programming jobs but not all. When the work becomes more efficient due to AI then less programmers will be needed to complete projects. Therefore, less potential jobs in the future. Not to mention AI is already incredibly powerful for how new it is, it will only get better over time. Investors love cutting corners for cash. AI will be improved significantly and leveraged to its full potential.
@@joshuapayne9811 No, assumptions. His theory assumes that software will FOREVER remain at SAME level of advancement it is now. It will be like frameworks, program generators and high level programming languages. They make developers more productive than lets say developers were in the 70s. And is there more devs now or was in the 70s? Of course now. Because if devs become more productive business will just DEMAND MORE COMPLEX BIGGER APPS for them to build. Then they become standard. Then every company will want them as MINIMUM. History sometimes hold an answers. This entire HYPE that is happening now happened many times in the past.
What worries me more than being replaced is being paid pennies. That's the more likely scenario. Everyone can keep their job (more programmers using AI means more output) but they'll all get a massive pay-cut cause the barrier for entry is now super low... just need to know fundamentals, some patterns and architecture and how to ask AI.
Same. I feel like there are two groups of people, the ones who say that it will completely replace developers and the ones who say that it will just be a handy tool for us. I'm kinda in between. I don't think it is going to completely replace us, but iI think t's definitely going to have some kind of an impact on the industry in the long run
The fundamental flaw in his take is that current AI technology is not good enough. If AI continues to improve (it will) then eventually (if not soon) it will be capable of doing most of the work software engineers do. Does that mean total replacement? Not necessarily but it would mean there will be far less demand for human software engineers.
sure it can knock out some code blocks / syntax etc...but does it know about logic and flow control ? surely the decision making of code ( conditions / if then else / using objects / etc ) is the difference between interpreting the docs and actually coding in the large. I'm sure AI can do the former but can it curently do the latter ?
Oh yes it will! Want to bet? People behind the scenes at openAI said GPT5 can do everything a team of 1000000 people might be able to do, key word MIGHT!
I had some people at my workplace, half-jokingly, say we were going to be replaced by AI in 5 years. I don't buy it. I think you're right about AI being an assistant. It will help programmers spend less time on boilerplate and trivialities, and write more error-free code. More time can be spent on bigger problems.
I agree with you. A systems like chatgpt is just as mush of a threat as stackoverflow. I agree with you as well that i hope these systems get better because systems like chatgpt are great resource for research, espically its ability to communicate similar to a person. It makes asking questions easier then taking that question to google. Thanks for the videos
Programmers who are worried they can be replaced by an overgrown Markov chain probably deserve to be replaced. Likely, even a rubber duck could have replaced them just as efficiently.
I think low level developers will be replaced or cut down immensely, espcially in context of tenweb and other AI builders that can build website in seconds.. I started to learn python and i was about to start to learn html but after seeing AI's immense power, it will be a waste of time to learn new languages.
Hello, I would like to know if this also applies to Computational biology and Data Science? will those fields get overtook by AI? many thanks in advance
Your theory assumes that software will FOREVER remain at SAME level of complexity as it is now. It will be like frameworks, program generators and high level programming languages. They make developers more productive than lets say developers were in the 70s. And is there more devs now or was in the 70s? Of course now. Because if devs become more productive business will just DEMAND MORE COMPLEX BIGGER APPS for them to build. Then they become standard. Then every company will want them as MINIMUM. History sometimes hold an answers. This entire HYPE that is happening now happened many times in the past.
Thos is all true, but the point is not to replace 100% of software engineers. The point is to replace 80% of software engineers. Less people coding, less useless meetings, less people handling everything. Like in agriculture.
A team of developers replaced by one senior? Never going to happen, atleast in big companies. Instead, the team of developers will get more features to work on since they'll be more productive.
Most people go to this field for money , no joke , just for good pay and yes it will not replace software developers . BUT , it will make your salary at least 40% less , you don't like to work ? there is always someone else can use AI and code and need to feed him/herself , so my prediction is , it will not replace anyone , it will just make your pocket go on a forever diet . at the end this WEF is not joking when they say you will own nothing and be happy !
We definetly can't know for sure what's gonna happen or how things will turn out with the new technologies that will emerge from AI for software development, will it be able to make most of the developer job with the developer himself/herself using a framework made by the big players owning the main AI SDKs that will assist greatly in buidling most of the app? I also see many people saying that with that kind of things 5 developers would do the job of 10, maybe but we also have to take into consideration that the field is expanding so the need for developers is also rising. So maybe it will change the way developers work, but also create new opportunities.
While I don't think that software engineers as a whole will be replaced, I fear that because of all these new tools available to developers, there might be less need for as many of us as there are. If I'm able to output 3x the work I normally could while using these tools, then in theory a company will only need 1 developer in order to do the same amount of work that 3 could. While I'd like to believe that this added efficiency will just make companies more efficient, the reality of the current job market is that companies will look to cut costs in any way. Also, if my job is easier because of these tools existing, then there is a weaker argument for my salary to be as much as it could be. I'm really hoping that I'm on the wrong track with this logic, but it is a big fear as someone who's about to graduate next semester
Think about how many new projects and companies will be started. There will be many new jobs.
There's an analgous situation from history for this: the maturity of CAD/CAM and low cost networked workstations in the late 90s for mechanical engineers. This really reorganized things to favor entry level engineers, because it increased productivity, made collaboration much more efficient, and supervision and management easy. So you could break up a problem into tiny manageable bits and have CADmonkeys do it, where as before you may have needed a small team of mature engineers to handle the project. Honestly I don't think that's a bad thing. It evened out in the end, since it expanded the demand for engineers overall and there's still team leaders and senior engineers. It's just there aren't as many "elite rockstars" as in the past, where special talent could really produce special results. But I think it's really great. Everyone's productivity will increase. The whole marketing cycles of hipster frameworks/languages du jour is likely to finally DIE, because it will be trivial to pick up new paradigms with expert assistants. THANK GOD.
Did frameworks do that? Libraries? Think about that one.
"I think that ChatGPT will be like a compiler. Nowadays, fewer people write in Assembly or machine code and use compilers and other programming languages instead. In the future, coding will likely evolve to another level and become more accessible to more people. I believe that coding will focus more on program architecture rather than just the coding itself."
This is definitely the most grounded and realistic assessment of the likely impact of AI in SW development. Having been in IT for over 30 years I smiled when he says "the next big thing" has always been touted as our replacement. It never has been and there are way more people working in tech now than there were 35 years ago when I started.
Saying AI will Replace Programmers bring way more view that telling that everything is fine and that AI will just make us more efficient.
100% a big fat lie! AI will 100% replace programmers, a gazillion percent.
@@revoltoff then you need to understand that it will also replace other fields also!!
@@SyedSufiyanJaved Yes but programmers are the first ones to get replaced.
@@revoltoff it will only take a couple of years for it to take over other fields also !!
@@SyedSufiyanJaved 100% unless they stop advancements.
A nice balanced take.
Good luck getting a computer to understand scribblings on a napkin when you are trying to explain what you want your app to look like and do.
Sry but I think your in denial. AI is improving an an exponential rate, not linear, meaning it will become so good that a human will get kicked out of the equation, an AGI will be able to do everything in a software engineer job. All these requirements that you just described, an AGI is easily capable of understanding all those and it will go much beyond that. And I’m not talking about ChatGPT per se, just AGI in general will replace software engineers. Your only considering what GPT-4 is not good at right now for example, but again, your forgetting it’s improving at an EXPONENTIAL rate, meaning it will be much much differing just 5 years from now. Once companies start seeing that AGI’s are better at building software than human software developers, sorry but humans will get replaced, not have their abilities enhanced, but just replaced. The company is just trying to increase profits, there’s not sympathy or attachments involved
Ps I'd don't think it's all that good
Oh. IT will be better exponentially...but at what? The way AI is designed and how they learn, there are some biological things they just can't have. They rely too much on databases and can't come up with anything new. For example, they aren't creative. Much of Ai art is plagiarized and it all is just learning from what other artists have made.
Gotta be honest here: not in the degree for software development. I'd rather consider it as a beginning for AI, Machine learning and Data Science master, since not only is considered the best series of jobs by job reviewers, but are the highest paid jobs in Silicon Valley. So, in synthesis: less software development, more machine learning jobs, and less IT secondary school programmers & more mathematics engineers So... Yeah... Results win after all. But to be honest, I take no pity for traditional artists and their jealousy for AI.
it won't replace it will just make finding jobs harder
You would make a good voice over for Mark Ruffalo
Chatgpt is terrible at writing software
It will replace you in the same way that ai generated art will replace artists. It's only a matter of time.
Ai art it's nice but it oftern isn't specific enough
It will replace artists for people who aren't wiling to pay and guess what they aren't willing to pay anyway
First off, people aren't gonna credit the AI company for generating AI images for their artbooks. Paid users essentially own all assets they create using AI image generation, so they will credit themselves for creating the image. Secondly, you're saying AI is not capable of producing the same quality work as human artists? Check out: Midjourney Showcase
dude ai art won't replace artists because animation companies and art software/hardware companies like Adobe or Wacom, won't do most anything AI art, because they don't want to lost their audience...
Copium
Raw opinion, the people who believe AI will replace programmers, are likely not programmers themselves or they are in IT adjacent to programming and have maybe read some code or worked on simple code and are assuming a lot. I have been programming professionally going on 5 years now. Mostly in Endpoint work and system integration. I have attemtped to get a few AI systems to produce something even small enough to be staging worthy (no luck). This video is ehcoing my thoughts exactly. An AI is missing the most important attributes of a programmer, and its not the ability to code. It is the ability to critically think, analyze and problem solve. AI currently is only able to utilize the informaiton provided in its data set that is is trained on, and even then its statisics at play. The most common pattern is provided, usually the best solution is the path least traveled and an AI will not be able to ever provide that path based on its design.
I agree.
" An AI is missing the most important attributes of a programmer, and its not the ability to code. It is the ability to critically think, analyze and problem solve."
So is ChatGPT is really a "true" AI? I don't think so.
Also I hear for about 10 years that we will have self driving cars, Elon Musk in 2014 said it will be in next year, and in 2023 a Tesla facing several court cases for laying that their cars have ability to self driving.
I'm a mechanical engineer and doing some coding on the side in CAD tools and add-ins. I can only speak of CAD development and in this field it is severely lacking. Even for fairly simple applications, it is awful. I've thought in the beggining that it would be a miracle tool and would disrupt the job market but at this point I'm pretty confident that in the next ten years it will not.
AI saves you a few google searches per topic and maybe skimming some documentation. 🙄 that's really it
Saying AI will replace programmers is like saying the calculator replaces the need to learn mathematics.
The end goal for ai isn't a calculator, it's a mathematician.
but if you study their methods of learning..... there are just some things about humans that aren't in neural networks so AI *cannot* learn this, this I think is scientific proof (or at least inference) of the human soul.@@finalsecretofchrono1339
Programmers have been copy-pasting code since years ago. It's not something new. Like you said chat gpt will be a tool to use, like stack exchange, google, etc. Having said that, at some point far in the future, Skynet will become reality and will threaten humanity like it happened on Terminator 🤷🏻♂️
Still need devs to make the code that's copy pasted
Good point
I agree that it won't replace us. I've been using GPT-4 to help me write unit tests. I had to spoon-feed it step by step, file by file, and in the end, it still hallucinated a whole bunch of stuff in my code. Needless to say, it is a helpful tool, but replace us, maybe one day, but definitely not now, not until they solve the hallucinating problems.
I agree
I was strongly in the 'it will replace us' camp. I've made a complete 180. Not only do I think ai will not replace us, I think it's the next blockchain/smart contract type of hype. I really thought hard about this, and I think ai will be a flop. I know that seems crazy to say.
@@mhc4124 can you tell more on why, im trying to make a 180 as well in my mindset
@@naturelife7536 Not him, but my 2 cents.
Calculators didn't replace mathematicians. They made it easier for them to do their job. AI is the same.
Ultimately our job is to design software solutions for problems people face. There are a multitude of considerations to make that require a level of human insight and abstract understanding that AI lacks/cannot ever replicate. It can help write code snippets, but it is utterly incapable of understanding the actual problem.
You're still in school so you probably don't have much exposure to coding in the real world. A lot of people meme about the DSA leetcode interviews when the job is "center div," but the reality is our work involves projects with hundreds of classes, thousands of functions, and orders of magnitude larger amounts of code. An AI will never be able to understand and implement the architecture patterns we use, the reason why we choose certain principles over others. Ultimately all it can do is help us with small tasks that are the same thing as a mathematician doing ln(3).
@@babadook1283 i hope it wont be able to do those things ive just begun studying coding
No. There are many fields (especially where being right is critical) where human input and understanding makes or breaks the code.
CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) is difficult for a reason: many of the breakthroughs have been to eke out extra processing power, but more often it is via mathematicians or engineers finding clever ways to reduce or correlate the Nav Stokes equations in a novel way.
This is letting alone the extreme difficulties associated with "non-math" systems. Chemical systems (kinematic chains, by-products, etc) have similar computational limit issues: there is just too much to capture and compute, and so reasonable simplifications are necessary. How much error is enough error? How good is good enough? Being 'wrong' can have catastrophic consequences, and it isn't wise to leave that to AI.
Obviously, this is just with more of the hands-on, 'engineering' end of things, but I suspect that the point you make--human understanding and knowledge of what a customer wants being critical to good programming--is widespread in nearly all of coding jobs.
It bugs me when its the people who haven't written a line of code that say this.
I write code. And yes it will replace programmers easily. Humans aren’t all that smart. AGI’s will pass us up very easily
No, it CERTAINLY won't replace programmers. ChatGPT can, given a description, return a small snippet of code. But I think overall what it generates is trivial. There is still the matter of understanding the problem abstractly, what the constraints are and what we are trying to solve, and architecting a solution. That is, the abstract problem solving component of writing code that is separate from the specific implementation in a specific language and environment are separate things. And LLMs like ChatGPT understand NOTHING. It isn't an expert system, it's a neural net that mimics language. So it can't reason about anything. What I predict will happen vis a vis ChatGPT/LLMs and programmers is like what happened when CAD/CAM and networked workstations became mature and viable for Mechanical Engineers. The tools are so good, and fill in the skill gap, that most of the demand will be for codemonkeys (just like CADmonkeys), and salaries will drop for these positions will drop. Most positions will be of this type. Gone will be the days of "rockstar" hipsters that are just good at quickly memorizing hipster frameworks/fashionable languages du jour. What I mean is that ChatGPT or assistants will flatten the field. There won't be these "rockstar" positions (because most of them are unwarranted in the first place), but the productivity will open up in new dimensions that the sheer NUMBER of available jobs will open up. You won't have the elitism and barrier to entry. I think it will be nice. And alot more cool code will end up being written that will solve real problems, which is out of reach right now.
I’m in WGU for software engineering and let me tell you this video was definitely needed. What you said makes a lot of sense. If anything AI and chatGPT are here to make our jobs easier not replace us. Awesome video!
Yup! It's a tool to leverage and better yourself with.
Exactly!
How are you liking the SE program at WGU? I might be starting next month
Just graduated from wgu for computer science! Best of luck in your career!
I graduated from WGU CS in February 2021. Got my first Software Engineer job in June 2022. Been working for a year and loving it! I wouldn't worry too much about AI. It's dumb as bricks when it comes to writing real-world code. Even if it improves, there's no actual reasoning or ingenuity involved. You'll still need people that know how to ask for what's needed, how to spot errors in generation, and how to actually integrate the code.
I’m almost 4 years in as a Dev in the industry & I totally agree. Maybe that’s not enough experience to comment but whatevs. Yeah, how is AI going to “sit in” on the endless Agile meetings and attempt to grasp the multitude of contexts / subjects that can happen in a single meeting? Is AI going to “sit in” during a backlog refinement and refine a story and the stakeholders are going to be comfortable with that? Ok, maybe companies ditch agile at some point but I don’t see this happening as it seems companies are so heavily invested in it and if you as a human attempt to go against the Agile flow you get treated like you’re sporting a cubs hat in downtown St. Louis. I digress. Personally, this is going to be an awesome tool for me. Lastly, if you happen to work in the finance industry on the tech side, it is so heavily regulated and our legislation in the US tends to be so slow… you get the point.
One viewpoint that I heard, is that they think that there may be an influx of unskilled "programmers" flood the job market. But good Programmers/Developers are still going to be needed.
Someone who holds a programming position doesn't just write code, they have many other responsibilities related to the role. They also work as someone who informs, educates, and integrates technologies.
Another point is that while Chat GPT may help speed up the development process, there are still so many businesses and areas in the world that could benefit from a good programmer coming in, assessing their needs, and helping them to integrate their workflows and accelerate them with technology.
Ai is incredibly useful, but it’s nowhere near replacing programmers. At the moment it’s essentially the greatest encyclopedia the world has ever created, but it struggles at doing complex things. I always see the narrative “Well, if it keeps getting better exponentially, it’ll do anything we can do and become an AGI”, but we could be decades away from exponential growth, if that every happens. We’re already seeing the limits of LLMs, as it takes an order of magnitude more compute to power GPT-4, which is only marginally better than GPT-3.5.
One thing that no one has brought up for discussion is the need for verification of code. It's very easy to just generate a snippet of this or that, but a professional needs to review it before it gets implemented. Think of it as code review. I can see more jobs being created just from this aspect alone. We will need legions of verifiers, tackling everything from business logic to security concerns. Coding is more complicated than people think, especially when you are addressing complex end user needs, and it's not as clean as people think either.
I see those stuff online. But i want the real answers, like will people still write code by typing in the future.
probably... but most people use python and python was built on C. Now Pseudo-Code will be treated as a programming language. We are still telling the computer what to do. It's just a new language, or another level of abstraction.
I think ChatGPT will replace entry level jobs potentially.
There will be less of them and the industry will not know that it is a problem until too late.
Additionally, it will depress wages.
Well, the fact is that not all will be replaced, but many will. The workforce will be reduced. It's important to be realistic. Yes, a senior developer is required to gather requirements and communicate them to the mid level and junior developers. It's the juniors who are truly "in danger". We lost a junior at work due to downsizing and not to be rude but I don't even miss him at this point. I have started passing all the work to ChatGPT that I used to give him
Disagree that AI will replace SE or even programmers. Also disagree that ChatGTP is good at producing code. It sucks at it, it provides great examples but once you want it more complex or longer code it goes all south. Also, it takes everything literally and it's like talking to a 5 year old. Yet, super useful to lead you into the right direction and generate examples. It can't even replace coding, far from it.
These type of videos seem to be deliberately short sight, much like the famous "you'll never need more than 640k" quote, except it wont take years to be even more incorrect.
It has been months since the popularization of LLM AIs, and it's already creates an existencial threat to many careers, so it wont get any better in that aspect. Some incredibly niche jobs will appear as kind of "AI" caretaker to keep it aligned, but even decision making will be left to the AI.
I asked GPT4 and it said:
"While ChatGPT and other AI models can assist software engineers in various tasks, they are not likely to replace them entirely. AI models can help with code suggestions, bug fixes, or even generating simple code snippets, but software engineering involves a lot of complex problem-solving, creativity, and understanding of the domain-specific requirements that cannot be easily replicated by AI.
Instead, AI technologies like ChatGPT can be seen as tools that can complement and enhance the work of software engineers, making their tasks more efficient and helping them focus on higher-level design and problem-solving aspects of their work."
i absolutely agree. Being human is what makes us distinct from technology through our creativity and intuition like you stated, as well as our emotions. AI was built BY code. And many non-programmers need to understand the creation can never replace the creator.
Well, ML models like ChatGPT are still being developed. There are people who maintain the ML model. Such ML models will help programmers write better code and suggest better ways to maintain the software or the hardware. At most, they will be able to take over a lot of the work that programmers do, but they'll never completely replace programmers. It more like the relation between JARVIS and Tony Stark (you'll know this if you read Marvel comics or watch their movies).
JARVIS or FRIDAY.
AI will without a doubt replace some programming jobs but not all. When the work becomes more efficient due to AI then less programmers will be needed to complete projects. Therefore, less potential jobs in the future. Not to mention AI is already incredibly powerful for how new it is, it will only get better over time.
Investors love cutting corners for cash. AI will be improved significantly and leveraged to its full potential.
Facts
@@joshuapayne9811 No, assumptions.
His theory assumes that software will FOREVER remain at SAME level of advancement it is now.
It will be like frameworks, program generators and high level programming languages. They make developers more productive than lets say developers were in the 70s.
And is there more devs now or was in the 70s?
Of course now.
Because if devs become more productive business will just DEMAND MORE COMPLEX BIGGER APPS for them to build. Then they become standard. Then every company will want them as MINIMUM.
History sometimes hold an answers. This entire HYPE that is happening now happened many times in the past.
What worries me more than being replaced is being paid pennies. That's the more likely scenario. Everyone can keep their job (more programmers using AI means more output) but they'll all get a massive pay-cut cause the barrier for entry is now super low... just need to know fundamentals, some patterns and architecture and how to ask AI.
Na they will make lots of mistakes and have a low productivity... just cause it's spits out a solution doesn't mean it's a solution you want
I don't think it will replace them totaly, but I do think a lot of the work for them will either be easier or just replaced.
Same. I feel like there are two groups of people, the ones who say that it will completely replace developers and the ones who say that it will just be a handy tool for us. I'm kinda in between. I don't think it is going to completely replace us, but iI think t's definitely going to have some kind of an impact on the industry in the long run
The fundamental flaw in his take is that current AI technology is not good enough. If AI continues to improve (it will) then eventually (if not soon) it will be capable of doing most of the work software engineers do. Does that mean total replacement? Not necessarily but it would mean there will be far less demand for human software engineers.
I feel like AI is the topic in tech where people are the most pessimistic about.
And the biggest voices are the people who don’t know much about it.
I'm an experienced iOS developer, and so far, I can tell for sure that ChatGPT sucks at iOS development
sure it can knock out some code blocks / syntax etc...but does it know about logic and flow control ? surely the decision making of code ( conditions / if then else / using objects / etc ) is the difference between interpreting the docs and actually coding in the large. I'm sure AI can do the former but can it curently do the latter ?
all repetitive work using computers can be automated within 2 years by ai.
Oh yes it will! Want to bet? People behind the scenes at openAI said GPT5 can do everything a team of 1000000 people might be able to do, key word MIGHT!
they're selling a product, ofc they'd *say* something like that. back it up with facts and evidence though, then we can have a real conversation.
Agree! Specially the Concluding Statement.
ethics????? poor argument
I had some people at my workplace, half-jokingly, say we were going to be replaced by AI in 5 years. I don't buy it. I think you're right about AI being an assistant. It will help programmers spend less time on boilerplate and trivialities, and write more error-free code. More time can be spent on bigger problems.
I agree with you. A systems like chatgpt is just as mush of a threat as stackoverflow. I agree with you as well that i hope these systems get better because systems like chatgpt are great resource for research, espically its ability to communicate similar to a person. It makes asking questions easier then taking that question to google. Thanks for the videos
Programmers who are worried they can be replaced by an overgrown Markov chain probably deserve to be replaced. Likely, even a rubber duck could have replaced them just as efficiently.
ok
Great video!
I think low level developers will be replaced or cut down immensely, espcially in context of tenweb and other AI builders that can build website in seconds.. I started to learn python and i was about to start to learn html but after seeing AI's immense power, it will be a waste of time to learn new languages.
I don't think it will replace , it may boost productivity Yes but replacing ? not going to happen. at least not at this point
Hello, I would like to know if this also applies to Computational biology and Data Science? will those fields get overtook by AI? many thanks in advance
❤
The best video on that topic
Are u persian?
pov: chatgpt made this video
Any one tried auto gpt??
It's not AI that replaces humans. but 1 human who uses AI replaces 10 humans who do not use AI
Your theory assumes that software will FOREVER remain at SAME level of complexity as it is now.
It will be like frameworks, program generators and high level programming languages. They make developers more productive than lets say developers were in the 70s.
And is there more devs now or was in the 70s?
Of course now.
Because if devs become more productive business will just DEMAND MORE COMPLEX BIGGER APPS for them to build. Then they become standard. Then every company will want them as MINIMUM.
History sometimes hold an answers. This entire HYPE that is happening now happened many times in the past.
Thos is all true, but the point is not to replace 100% of software engineers. The point is to replace 80% of software engineers. Less people coding, less useless meetings, less people handling everything. Like in agriculture.
such a wise words !
AI won't replace programmers, but a team of developers will be replace by a Senior Engineer using AI tools.
You seem to forget that software engineers are in short supply and also no juniors = no more Seniors in the future.
A team of developers replaced by one senior? Never going to happen, atleast in big companies.
Instead, the team of developers will get more features to work on since they'll be more productive.
Most people go to this field for money , no joke , just for good pay and yes it will not replace software developers . BUT , it will make your salary at least 40% less , you don't like to work ? there is always someone else can use AI and code and need to feed him/herself , so my prediction is , it will not replace anyone , it will just make your pocket go on a forever diet . at the end this WEF is not joking when they say you will own nothing and be happy !
Don't waste time, The answer is it depends on the AI
We definetly can't know for sure what's gonna happen or how things will turn out with the new technologies that will emerge from AI for software development, will it be able to make most of the developer job with the developer himself/herself using a framework made by the big players owning the main AI SDKs that will assist greatly in buidling most of the app? I also see many people saying that with that kind of things 5 developers would do the job of 10, maybe but we also have to take into consideration that the field is expanding so the need for developers is also rising. So maybe it will change the way developers work, but also create new opportunities.
We have already seen Ai do most of the stuff he said it couldn't. What is he on?
Like what?
@@ChatGTA345 Understanding sarcasm - waaaaay better at it just 7 months later
AI won't replace programmers, People who use AI Will. Stay salty techbros 😜
cope