Great episode. I completely agree with the sentiment that euphoria is at its peak right now. It’s evident everywhere, with some communities like MSTR taking it to another level of absurdity by predicting a 5x increase in the next few months when the stock is already up 400% YTD etc. When people feel invincible, it’s usually been a good indicator for me to start scaling out. Good job as always VP.
Saw a video that talked about the excessive amounts of gambling sites that exist now, and how it's been gamified and even has a pathway of trading cards -> microtransactions -> online gambling. Sites like Polymarket(?) are apparently contributing to this. The interesting part was that big banks are apparently wanting to get into the action as well, as another product offering. And let's face it, young people (and people in general) today have no patience or impulse control, so they're going to get sucked into it hard. Thus, I can see there being a fair bit of upside in the finance sector as well as oracle providers for these services. It'll be interesting to see how the market unfolds, but I like the idea of that for a 3-5 year horizon. I still think we'll top in 2026 due to Benner Cycles (and yield curve), so we'll probably get a crypto selloff sooner or later, but that next downtrend is when you really want to position yourself. People are going to fold and drop the price as soon as tough times hit and they start getting losses.
WMT is up like 75% if you bought it Jan 2nd this year. Why is a megacap bluechip consumer *defensive* stock up more than 8-12% in a year? Even SPY is up 25% or so (not impossible, but definitely unusual). How much of that is from a strong economy? Inflation? Money printing? Melt up? These stocks are almost too good to be true. I think 2025 will still be neutral to bullish, but I'd watch out for 2026. As others have said, no harm in taking some profits off the table, moving to defensive plays, dividends and fixed income, etc. Remember that gold and silver tend to move with the broad markets (but are good long term as an inflation hedge). Really, as long as you're spread out and aren't leveraged to the tits, you'll be alright.
Took somme profit before the drop and bought some things on discount. Tbqh I don't think it was because of what CherPow'll said about the bitcoin reserve, I think it was the revised dotplot and his relatively 'hawkish' tone when everyone thought for some unknown and unknowable reason he was going to be 'dovish' and say there will be loads of rate cuts next year. Everything dumped except the DXY (basically) and alts were what got hit hard (for btc that hardly qualifies as a 'dump') - because the expected liquidity they wanted to see injected was off the table. But that was always a fantasy (in the immortal words of Adam Curtis)
@@NoNonsenseForex Completely forgot to check the calendar when I was trading last week, and coincidentally sold out of a few option positions just in time, as well as playing USDCAD up and down almost perfectly. It's nice to see green once in a while, even if it was by accident
Bro Plug Power and Greenwood energy are creating a JV for crypto mining now, and people panic over an old dude sentence that drop came soooo good for me I just had some left over capital that I couldn't commit and I kind of aped into that
Take your profit. Even it's just a partial profit. My plays were all up. Stop losses were pulled up into profit and cover fees.
Great episode. I completely agree with the sentiment that euphoria is at its peak right now. It’s evident everywhere, with some communities like MSTR taking it to another level of absurdity by predicting a 5x increase in the next few months when the stock is already up 400% YTD etc. When people feel invincible, it’s usually been a good indicator for me to start scaling out. Good job as always VP.
Superb time to slap in da face and remind what’s been forgotten. Don’t die!
Japan is easing regularion around crypto too, China is turning a blind eye and India is rethinking their regularions, it all over the world
Saw a video that talked about the excessive amounts of gambling sites that exist now, and how it's been gamified and even has a pathway of trading cards -> microtransactions -> online gambling. Sites like Polymarket(?) are apparently contributing to this.
The interesting part was that big banks are apparently wanting to get into the action as well, as another product offering. And let's face it, young people (and people in general) today have no patience or impulse control, so they're going to get sucked into it hard. Thus, I can see there being a fair bit of upside in the finance sector as well as oracle providers for these services. It'll be interesting to see how the market unfolds, but I like the idea of that for a 3-5 year horizon.
I still think we'll top in 2026 due to Benner Cycles (and yield curve), so we'll probably get a crypto selloff sooner or later, but that next downtrend is when you really want to position yourself. People are going to fold and drop the price as soon as tough times hit and they start getting losses.
WMT is up like 75% if you bought it Jan 2nd this year. Why is a megacap bluechip consumer *defensive* stock up more than 8-12% in a year? Even SPY is up 25% or so (not impossible, but definitely unusual). How much of that is from a strong economy? Inflation? Money printing? Melt up? These stocks are almost too good to be true. I think 2025 will still be neutral to bullish, but I'd watch out for 2026.
As others have said, no harm in taking some profits off the table, moving to defensive plays, dividends and fixed income, etc. Remember that gold and silver tend to move with the broad markets (but are good long term as an inflation hedge). Really, as long as you're spread out and aren't leveraged to the tits, you'll be alright.
Took somme profit before the drop and bought some things on discount.
Tbqh I don't think it was because of what CherPow'll said about the bitcoin reserve, I think it was the revised dotplot and his relatively 'hawkish' tone when everyone thought for some unknown and unknowable reason he was going to be 'dovish' and say there will be loads of rate cuts next year.
Everything dumped except the DXY (basically) and alts were what got hit hard (for btc that hardly qualifies as a 'dump') - because the expected liquidity they wanted to see injected was off the table. But that was always a fantasy (in the immortal words of Adam Curtis)
Thank god for trailing stops. Might look into lithium etfs
So you took profit on your crypto before the FOMC even though what they said was a nothing burger and then decided to buy more
Yep. FOMC doesn't factor into my investing money management.
@@NoNonsenseForex Completely forgot to check the calendar when I was trading last week, and coincidentally sold out of a few option positions just in time, as well as playing USDCAD up and down almost perfectly. It's nice to see green once in a while, even if it was by accident
@@NoNonsenseForex Thought Vp does not answer questions :) All hail vp.
Bro Plug Power and Greenwood energy are creating a JV for crypto mining now, and people panic over an old dude sentence that drop came soooo good for me I just had some left over capital that I couldn't commit and I kind of aped into that
Anyone with Android that can recommend me an app that hosts the 10 minute contrarion podcast of vp?
Spotify is the big one, but I use Podcast Addict myself on Android.
@NoNonsenseForex thank you so much!!!