The Video assumes that economic growth involves only a physical increase in the quantity of goods (or in this case a single good, the lego brick). Whereas economic growth often arises because of an increase in economic value when comparing one item to another - a single pen has more value than a single pencil, a song by Adele has more value than a song by.... me. In addition, in the case of the latter, no extra atoms were consumed in producing the higher value output. Indeed, the notes and words making up the song can be arranged in an infinite number of ways, therefore an economy comprised of items such as songs, would not be limited by the number of atoms available to us.
This is all true, and even if we acquire all of the atoms in the galaxy, we could still 'produce' more value by writing more songs or something, as you say. And further, economic value is potentially somewhat arbitrary. Someone might value a song as X dollars, but if they find out it was produced by AI, they might now value it at X * 0.1 dollars overnight, even though it's the same song. Robin Hanson had more to say in response to this in his Limits to growth post from 2009 which I didn't get in to here, but might be worth looking at (it's a fairly short read). www.overcomingbias.com/p/limits-to-growthhtml
I agree that this video has some framing problems and would to add that it also doesn't relate the doubling effect to either total population or total workforce. Over the timescales discussed, we expect the birth rate to decrease as a byproduct of higher living standards (pretty well understood) but don't have good models for how increased longevity or increased automation might change total economic productivity or productivity per capita.
No, economy grows because of technology. Economy truly took off when industrial revolution happened. Now imagine if we colonized the stars. How much goods and services can we produce when we have entire planets and stars at our disposal?
@@IamAWESOME3980 My point was that economic growth can arise through increases in quality as well as quantity, with the former not necessarily requiring an increase in the number of atoms used. Furthermore, those atoms can be reused. Therefore, the analogy of seemingly endless lego bricks is not necessarily a good one. Technology can increase both quality and quantity.
And straight out of nowhere, I get recommended this guy I've never seen before with just the right video to keep me well entertained during my evening nugget and fries binge. Jokes aside, this was really quality content. Appreciate it!
Love your graphics and animation! Also, can you confirm a stat I heard where all recent growth in global renewable energy over the past year has been completely absorbed by the growth in energy demand from AI and new data centres. Where will that leave us for sustainable future energy supply?
Thank you! And great question. Global data centre electricity use was 240-340 TWh in 2022, so let's say 340. This doesn't just include AI, so let's call this figure an overestimate. Global renewable electricity production grew by almost 600 TWh in 2022. So at least as of 2022, this is most likely not true. But, I suspect it will become true pretty soon, even with pretty mid-range projections of AI growth. I read one troubling report recently talking about making the tradeoff between the competing interests of meeting climate targets in the US and national security interests by beating China in the AI arms race. Total energy production in the US has only grown by 5% in the last decade, which may not be enough to keep up with increased data centre energy demands soon.
Thank you for using documented stats! Given the extraordinary growth in AI and data centres over the past 12 months, it appears my hearsay stat may actually be realistic. Frightening!
What do you think about all this? What will economic growth trends look like over the next few centuries, and is this really the most important century?
*GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda* What is NDP, Net Domestic Product? When do economists talk about that? Where is the data on the annual depreciation of automobiles and other durable consumer goods since Sputnik? Beware of "experts" leaving out information!
I'm sorry, but this is tedious to watch. Too many numbers & abstract figures, too much talking, too long to get to the point. I'll watch more of your videos because I'm interested in the topic and I want channels like yours to succeed, but please try to be more entertaining. Cheers.
This was a novel approach to this subject, keeping it in line with previous videos regarding Dyson Spheres. Thanks for posting!
I'm glad you enjoyed it, thanks!
But seriously this is mind blowing! So informative and fascinating 🤩
I'm so glad you enjoyed it!
Very cool perspective, thanks for sharing it. I appreciate your first principles approach. Also, yes, this is the most important century
My pleasure! I'm glad you enjoyed it.
The Video assumes that economic growth involves only a physical increase in the quantity of goods (or in this case a single good, the lego brick). Whereas economic growth often arises because of an increase in economic value when comparing one item to another - a single pen has more value than a single pencil, a song by Adele has more value than a song by.... me. In addition, in the case of the latter, no extra atoms were consumed in producing the higher value output. Indeed, the notes and words making up the song can be arranged in an infinite number of ways, therefore an economy comprised of items such as songs, would not be limited by the number of atoms available to us.
This is all true, and even if we acquire all of the atoms in the galaxy, we could still 'produce' more value by writing more songs or something, as you say. And further, economic value is potentially somewhat arbitrary. Someone might value a song as X dollars, but if they find out it was produced by AI, they might now value it at X * 0.1 dollars overnight, even though it's the same song.
Robin Hanson had more to say in response to this in his Limits to growth post from 2009 which I didn't get in to here, but might be worth looking at (it's a fairly short read).
www.overcomingbias.com/p/limits-to-growthhtml
I agree that this video has some framing problems and would to add that it also doesn't relate the doubling effect to either total population or total workforce. Over the timescales discussed, we expect the birth rate to decrease as a byproduct of higher living standards (pretty well understood) but don't have good models for how increased longevity or increased automation might change total economic productivity or productivity per capita.
No, economy grows because of technology. Economy truly took off when industrial revolution happened. Now imagine if we colonized the stars. How much goods and services can we produce when we have entire planets and stars at our disposal?
@@IamAWESOME3980 My point was that economic growth can arise through increases in quality as well as quantity, with the former not necessarily requiring an increase in the number of atoms used. Furthermore, those atoms can be reused. Therefore, the analogy of seemingly endless lego bricks is not necessarily a good one.
Technology can increase both quality and quantity.
And straight out of nowhere, I get recommended this guy I've never seen before with just the right video to keep me well entertained during my evening nugget and fries binge.
Jokes aside, this was really quality content. Appreciate it!
You don't how much feedback like this means to me, thank you. I'm glad you enjoyed it!
Damn, I was so looking forward to the growth in year 4785. :c ;_;
If expand out of solar system, why can't it? Doubling insane though
Love your graphics and animation! Also, can you confirm a stat I heard where all recent growth in global renewable energy over the past year has been completely absorbed by the growth in energy demand from AI and new data centres. Where will that leave us for sustainable future energy supply?
Thank you! And great question. Global data centre electricity use was 240-340 TWh in 2022, so let's say 340. This doesn't just include AI, so let's call this figure an overestimate. Global renewable electricity production grew by almost 600 TWh in 2022. So at least as of 2022, this is most likely not true. But, I suspect it will become true pretty soon, even with pretty mid-range projections of AI growth.
I read one troubling report recently talking about making the tradeoff between the competing interests of meeting climate targets in the US and national security interests by beating China in the AI arms race. Total energy production in the US has only grown by 5% in the last decade, which may not be enough to keep up with increased data centre energy demands soon.
Thank you for using documented stats! Given the extraordinary growth in AI and data centres over the past 12 months, it appears my hearsay stat may actually be realistic. Frightening!
As long as technology continue to advance
Very informative
I'm very glad to hear that, thank you!
We need a Vegan Donut economy! 🌱🌱🍩🍩🌍🌍
I can get behind that!
What do you think about all this? What will economic growth trends look like over the next few centuries, and is this really the most important century?
*GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda*
What is NDP, Net Domestic Product?
When do economists talk about that?
Where is the data on the annual depreciation of automobiles and other durable consumer goods since Sputnik?
Beware of "experts" leaving out information!
I'm sorry, but this is tedious to watch. Too many numbers & abstract figures, too much talking, too long to get to the point. I'll watch more of your videos because I'm interested in the topic and I want channels like yours to succeed, but please try to be more entertaining. Cheers.
@@d3ni553rbu I appreciate the feedback.