Russia is in a deadly fix in Ukraine, but does it realize it?
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- Опубликовано: 9 июл 2024
- Renowned US author and analyst, Chuck Pfarrer, a former squadron leader of SEAL Team 6, explains why Russia is continuing to fail in Ukraine and is struggling to advance despite all of its recent reinvigorated efforts. Pfarrer points out the many signs that Russia has neither the strategic nor tactical ability to execute complex missions. Russia, time and again, fails to make significant headway in Ukraine and is facing increasingly hostile troops unwilling to become cannon fodder.
Pfarrer, who has advised the “full alphabet soup” of US national security agencies and is a leading figure in the analysis of the war in Ukraine, is a new special correspondent for the Kyiv Post. Here, he explains why Russia’s losses so far have been disastrous and why an abysmal summer awaits the Kremlin. Russians soon to be mobilized should not delude themselves with fantasies of victory: Like nearly all of the Russian soldiers who participated in the initial full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the newbie Russian troops will be heading straight to the meat-grinder.
After his service in the US Navy, Pfarrer served public and private sector clients as a military and counter-terrorism contractor and non-proliferation expert. Pfarrer has written extensively on counter-WMD proliferation and gray zone operations. He has written an op-ed for the New York Times and the Knight-Ridder Syndicate and has appeared as a writer and counterterrorism expert on CNN, ABC, MSNBC, Fox, CSPAN, NPR, Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Al Hurra, IPR, and America tonight.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:25 Ukraine's secret operation in Russia
02:23 How Russia missed its best opportunity.
06:26 Which weapons does Ukraine require now?
07:49 Do the Russians realize what a bad situation they are in?
10:15 What should we expect in the coming months?
11:44 Do you think the Russians are sincere in calling for negotiations?
14:20 Thank you
More stories on our site: www.kyivpost.com
Our Twitter: / kyivpost
Our Facebook: / kyivpost
Ukraine keep hitting hard.
Lol , bro they are being decimated and this fatuous analysist is clueless.
Lol laughs in FAB
with bombs that don't hit, whereas every FAB-3000 hits its mark and Ukraine can't intercept anything. In fact, Ukraine's missile interceptors are being hit in flight by Russian interceptors
@@ClubofInfo-CirculationRusia is failing since the beginning.😂😊
@@ClubofInfo-Circulationglugluglu 🚽
I hope the Pentagon is listening to you, Mr Pfarrer.
@@brianfreeman8290 haha your funny
There is 1 traitor comming...... TRUMP.
@@robertwallace4515you're not at all
It’s NOT the Pentagon! It’s Chump’s fascist House Republiclowns! You’re blaming the wrong people.
The Pentagon is not to blame! It’s the House Republiclowns!
This guy is a real gem. I remember reading his book 20 years ago
@@loucaribou7765 he's a pretentious pleb. Nothing special about him .... Christ!...😒🚮
COOL, must read. Thanks
@@kevinmccarthy8746 yeah it's pretty good I forgot what it was called but I'm sure it shouldn't be too hard to find
@@loucaribou7765 more like a polished turd
Totally agree with you
This is the 1st analyst that I completely agree with... As an ex-US Air Force Special Operations troop and someone who served at a UK NATO Nuclear Tactical Fighter / Bomber base & served in the Gulf war... I'm no expert... but served & have been interested in war strategy since the age of 12... This guy has an accurate, level headed and balanced view of this conflict & in my opinion will be proven 100% correct... How so many "two star pontificators" have gotten it wrong is amazing...Its as if they have no recollection of war history... This guy is spot on...
If you didn’t do the time in the Infantry then everything else you did stands for nothing. Your no authority on the subject of combat and your experience is worthless.
Chuck is the best example of a true American I have ever known. This man makes me proud to be a fellow American. He is intelligent, well educated, speaks clearly and isn’t afraid to tell the truth regardless of whether it hurts or not. I wish we had more men like him in the US, but sadly, he is a rare breed. I agree 100% with everything he has to say in this new piece. Kiev Post is also an excellent source for accurate and timely info. Thanks for sharing this interview. Glory to the Heroes! 🇺🇦👍🏻🇺🇸🤘🏻
Why people like him do not run for president? Seriously.
@@PuleczechNo ego
@@Puleczechbecause he's a nobody in the US.
he strikes me as the sort of fellow your country desperately needs as president
Growing up my exposure to American's were my Grandmother, Pa and some relative's, Calm, Charm & Character. That's my memory of being 5 or 6 in Ireland, 60's & 70's. My Gran visited Ireland and didn't want to leave, She was of German & Polish hereditary.
Half a million casualties but over a million fleeing emigres; rebellion springing in other oblasts; collapse of the economy; loss of the black fleet world wide humiliation; I don’t think Iran and North Korea can rescue the teetering dinosaur…
Wishful thinking is a good thing.
Russia is now importing oil there going to loose all there refineries
@@Zero95011yeh yeh yeh keep thinking this and Ukraine will win 😂😂😂😂
@@Zero95011 Hah, Russia is DYING Kremlin fanboi
this level of delusion cannot possibly be good for you.
Putin's dilemma is that he cannot just say "Whoops, I made a mistake" and withdraw without doubling the wrath of thousands of mothers and wives. Same predicament that the US was in over Vietnam.
US only lost 50k troops throughout all of Vietnam
Russia has lost 250k so far!
Putin could "dig in" at the current front lines, he is still controlling a lot of Ukrainian territory (Mariupol and all of the Azov Sea, Crimea, half of Donbass). If that happens, it would be the Ukrainian army who would have to do costly attacks. The reason why Putin doesn't do that is, I suppose, because he understands that he will not achieve peace and normal relations with other countries by just digging in and offering a peace with new borders on the front line. He will go on having refineries bombarded, and bleeding money, and being isolated and sanctioned, until inflation, lack of spare parts and lack of fuel will get him out of power.
Wrong. Wives and mothers make no difference. Keep it in your pants, feminist American. It's the men who died, it's the men who fought, it's a struggle between men, not a coffee clatch between backstabbing hairdos, and backseat drivers. Putin can pull out, like your dad should have. But like most you-tubers, he lives in his own narcissistic fantasy of ultimate superiority. You forget, he kills his own friends. If Hitler had nukes, he would have used them, even in Germany, once he saw the end was near. When Putin sees the curtain falling, he'll pull the pin and take as many with him as he can. Putin does not love Ruzzia. He could have built roads if he did. He could sell trees to China for decades. He'd still have a country and an economy and a claim to forests to clear-cut. These are riches neither you or me could hope for. He, like you, imagines a world that men have to stand together against. While you can just stay home and be a mother or a wife.
An ideolog takes losses in stride, and doesn't have the same sense of responsibility or conscience like the average normal individual.
For his own hubris arrogance and conceit Putin would rather destroy Russia's future than he himself walk away from the disaster playing out in Ukraine.
shame on russia
We definitely don't want Ukraine as an enemy... ever.
Geez maybe the Russians are telling the truth about the Keivistas attacking beachgoers. The Greeks went nuts on the sands of Asia Minor to the effect that after that they called 'em TROJAN beaches, you know? Boys be cray.
@@That_Guy_Says_Hi Maybe Russians are so dense or passive they have beach holidays in war zones, to act as human shields for their frightened servicemen!🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@That_Guy_Says_Hi U B dim.
I have lived among the Ukranian diaspora here 🇨🇦. They WON'T back down when it comes to protecting their family, friends and country.
Four generations of Ukrainians have proven they're very stubborn, determined people to make a life worth living.
We in the "West" have grown complacent, don't understand why it's so important to deal with realities of conflict effectively.
@@ninemoonplanetpoots is finding out the hard way that the Ukranians are most certainly NOT "Little ruzzians" but are completely different people - indomitable, freedom and family loving who will give him hell before they back down like his slavish, resistance averse ruzzkies.
💪🇺🇦💥
What Russia is doing is wrong in so many levels, to invade another country is wrong and i can only assume that would be unecceptable. Ukraine has the right to exist as every other country does.
Russians have been fed delusions for decades. They have been told they're one of the most powerful countries. Any real analysis of the economy, the real lives of people outside the major cities shows endemic, deep and pervasive poverty.
America is next
Then you must be really pissed at the United States for invading Ukraine first. Oh, you didn't know? Look it up.
You think Russia just went in for nothing your delusional try 8000 civilians killed in the Donbass pre smo and your on the start
not only the invasion it's the utter tripe those russians were spewing that only india and africans ate up and spewed all over social media the first year of this kicking off...you don't see those same africans/indians making those comments now it's derranged kiddie westerners spewing it...obviously the social commie bot farms have run out of funding
It is so refreshing to hear somebody of note express an optimistic and even hopeful tone on the future situation in Ukraine.
Слава Україні! 💙💛
Yes for sure and someone who knows what he is talking about.
I avoid nut nut channels but hear all the time optimistic Ukraine news. It's war. It's tough. People are dying. Russia is taking land at the moment but at huge cost. This is an attrition war. That involves killing more Russians on the battlefield.
But also the country is rapidly falling apart economically.
The money will run out and then what ?
What will their soldiers do ?
I like this guy. Go Ukraine!
Your guest was awesome.. 👍🏻
I like this guy Chuck optimistic Slava Ukraine!!!
A regular on Mriya Report 🙏🏽
He may be far more accurate in his assessment than some of the people in the administration, USA, Canada, NATO and Europe.
Far too little until the citizens get angry, determined to support Ukraine, then suddenly the materiel appears. 🙄🙇
I same th same..
yes, 'Breaking up Moscow empire is the only way to end its imperialism', And I don’t mean Putin´s imperialism, but Moscow imperialism in general , from Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky to Yeltsin and Dugin.
Get the Russian agents, spys out of America and Europe. Exile Viktor Orban to Moscow.
Yep, the russians need to really learn their lesson.
lol dream on americans
@@ProxAIhey 👋 Z patriot 🌻
How to end the imperialism of the states though?
Putin should be worried about his own neck. He has cost the loss of around 500K Russian boys in his stupid war. That is a lot of ticked of moms and dads. Not to mention wives, sweethearts and children. Shalom
Nobody cares because they're not counted. Women will birth new men.
Besides Your very wishful thinking about Russias' casualty rate,one thing that You are right about is : THERE ARE A LOT OF TICKED OFF.....
These folks,ARE VERY ANGRY AT US.Make no mistake,RUSSIANS KNOW THAT WE ARE THE DRIVING FORCE,BEHIND THIS
@@petehowett2854cray cray much?
@@petehowett2854 Up voting your own comment is rather childish. If you think I wishing for Russians or anyone to die you are sicker than Putin. Shalom
Putin can only go forward.
- Retreat? He will die
- Defeat? He will die.
- Leaving Crimea? He will CERTAINLY die.
His innercirle will see it as weakness, and replace him. He won't survive that.
I don't think he's really intending to share Crimea, because that will probably have the same end result for him.
Chuck, you hit the nail on the head on a couple of points you made. FYI, I served in SBU's and also in Vietnam, Brown Water Navy.
Now, not too long ago, I made the comment online that the Ukrainian/Russia War had turned into a small unit tactic war. Vietnam was fought with the mindset of large unit maneuvers because of the general officers had been junior officers during WWII & Korea and were trying to fight set place battles with the NVA & VC and plenty of books I've read written by platoon commanders in the field stated that the NVA/VC would use the same tactics that the plains Indians used. They would send out a few men, fire some shots, then retreat. The platoon CO would report the contact up the chain, and he would be told to follow and develop the situation. He would and his men would be led into a well prepared dug in ambush, and the gap would be closed behind them. Then, when rescue tried to relieve the trapped platoon, the enemy would be waiting for them, too. It happened over and over in many books written by platoon leaders. The US never learned either. The same thing now applies to the Russians but with a slight twist.
Even with those tactics, the VC were wiped out in Tet of '68 and the NVA were almost entirely annihilated that same year. North Vietnamese called for negotiations then once they had been crushed. The US had the ability to end Vietnam in 2 weeks of bombing Hanoi and Haiphong, but LBJ and Kissinger drew out the war for years, costing 58,000 US lives and untold losses to Vietnamese, Cambodians, and Laotians. We wasted thousands of aircraft and war material in the process as well, while Congressmen laughed to the bank.
@@LRRPFco52, I think that's where Ukraine's new air power might factor considerably.
The Russians are successfully using their new glide bombs. Their employment is more or less the first very successful combined arms tactic we've seen from the Russians (Lord knows we ain't seein' much successful combined arms action from their Navy).
If the Ukrainians can deploy their planes & keep them protected then the fight over the skies in this theatre becomes true war on the Russians. F-16's with Rockeyes cannot hold ground, but they sure as Hell can de-Z the living shit out of a place.
The most disturbing parallel for the Ukrainian side is the escalation management of the current US administration (and Euope) which is a much like that of Robert McNamara who it can be said probably lost the air war. Futher problems are the media which can snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory such as happened in the Tet offensive in Vietnam which was a US victory but such a shock the media portrayed it as a defeat causing a loss in the will to fight in the US. Finally we must fear a new President who is a wild card and already giving hope to Russia and may change Policy and allow Russia to win or the time in a fake peace plant to build its arms.
🤦🏽♀️
Does Russia realize it’s at war and war can have dire consequences? Lol
Projection of the USA dilemma
Too much corruption and profiteering, not enough weapons that work.
Like the entire world being vaporized? It's a good thing their boarders are far more important while ours is wide open.
Bullies rarely expect to be hit back.
they do, I mean Russia does… They pretend they do not understand. That’s the Russian way😂😮
I don’t think they have a clue what to do at this point. Putin wants to save face and knows the whole house of cards will collapse if he just pulls out and returns all Russian forces to their border. I think their plan may be to dig in and hold as tight as they can until Ukraine breaks and surrenders all the captured territory as a peace treaty which, of course, we all know won’t happen.
My concern is in an act of desperation they’ll open up a new front or otherwise make a significant escalation. As of yet they have not fully committed their military.
Wow that mission was some James Bond shit.
Quite literally
Well said!
It would be a heck of a movie.
Nice 😎
@@cruisinguy6024😄 yep
I'm a "private contractor" over here.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
NAFO 69th brigade
*sniffing
Nice
@@Youbetternowatchthis
Thx yes. I often get shadowban when putting in it.
Due related to drugs or pervert. Or/and due reported. No clue.
Today was a good day. They stick.
Lmao touch grass
At least we're not the only ones who see this. I sure hope my country doesn't duck things up. Glory to Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Vote Dem
Listening to Putin's recent comments of ridiculous revisionism on the events around how Russia failed to take Kyiv draws the picture of one of Russia's biggest problems.
Yes, all the krembots are told to sing a fake history of events.
Sounds like he and Chump are coordinating. Wonder where our CIA is???
Are his recent comments delusional? Are they propaganda? Or is he just putting lipstick on a pig? Putin must be near the end of his rope.
One doesn't set out to capture major city with 190 thousand army. Therefore what Putin says might be true e.g. there was no 72 hour plan and his plan was not to conquer the whole country but to force them to start negotiations
Must be a big problem to have taken one fifth of Ukraine
This dude Chuck , man you hit the nail right on the head with this analysis.
Really? 1000 Russian soldiers dead in one day? The highest estimate by mediazona is ~1800 a week, while confirmed is ~350 a week.
american 'experts' usually set me on edge, but this guy seems well thought through. I would add that Ukraine iwith western weapons is Russia'a nightmare enemy - they know the russians better than the russians do, and with better equipment they will win.
Trump: Hold my beer....
I could smell it,too. Putin looked weak.
Putin is ill and kinda insane.
That's what you think. A man with wisdom is strong
@@user-sy6ot9lt3w Nah Putin knows it is endgame. He is losing. The only thing he kinda hopes for is Trump, but the damage is already done.
During this "special military operation", accidents happen to russians. To the Moskva and other warships. A dozen of Z generals went AWOL for ever too.
Chuck is partially wrong about their Generals. They did have some rising stars in their senior leadership.
Teplinsky was one. Popular with his troops, did all his military academy training plus some, came up with the best way to use TOS-1A in Donetsk, so he was pretty effective even in Ukraine.
He got fired, though, around DEC2022, apparently for complaining about a lack of support for his soldiers. Something like 3-4 Months later he got rehired & given a new commission similar to the one he had, 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers. He may have died earlier this Year.
Surovikin was reportedly a good tactician as well, he of the "Surovikin Lines" & he also got retired against his will from the theatre.
So, there are some proficient Russian commanders. Russia just tends to fire them or murder them like Utkin's Neo-Gnat-See *ss.
@@CoffeeAndPaul russia do not like people climbing the ladder and gaining popularity amongst its own..it's not the commie way
Whenever I see Chuck is speaking, I listen.
He's a bit rosy in his assessments & skews toward Ukraine, but I do admire his commitment to Ukraine's cause.
The raid on the ship is incredible. That they managed to spirit the defector out is awesome.
@@CoffeeAndPaul It was like a good old episode of "Mission Impossible."
Same here, I never miss an opportunity to listen to the man...
He has forgotten more than most of us will ever know.
@@mikehunt6218 And he never tries to sell me a flashlight, or a zoom lens, or any of the other special "Military" products on RUclips ads.
@@celticman1909 😂😂😂
Good point!
🎉 Viva Ukraine, Viva, Viva, Viva!💪🇺🇦👑🪖🎖️🪖🏆🪖🙏✌️🕊️
Гарні шоломи.
Yes. Seems to me there should be more explicit emphasis that US-EU support for Ukraine is a national security issue, not a “foreign aid” issue.
RuZZia lost against Chechnya,,,,,, japan 1904,, WW1, In WW2 Germany lost against UK and USA,
Russians are fighting because they love serfdom and get off on being oppressed and like having shit to complain about. It's like if I'm going to get beat up by anybody I'm going to get beat up by my own tsar
Kadyrow, do you know that name? WW2 Germany lost against UK and USA at the west front, and there was east front as well.
@kastnoka1274 Don Don, Don Don Don.
@@kastnoka1274 Who supplied the USSR with weapons and material?
@@heathermccall8015, okay your comment made me laugh for like a good 20 seconds.
God, is that man detestable.
Thanks Chuck your Analysis is Absolutely Correct. Anyone who thinks Russia is Coming out of this situation intact should have their head Examined.
Haven't Russian soldiers heard about fragging?
The Ukrainians sure have.
Glory to the strong ukrainian soldiers and brave population showing little putin the back door
Have you heard about the extreme draft dodging? There are a lot of brave Ukrainians, but not enough of them are volunteering and most of those drafted just refuse. After all, they'll only get a fine as opposed to likely dying in the trenches.
@@Andreas-gh6is Just like Russia then or any other nation. Andreas, för helvete..
@@Andreas-gh6is Source?
@@larshesthaven5828 delusions.🤣🤣
@@Zero95011Crackle crackle crackle. Sounds like something burning.
Brilliant analysis! 👌
🇩🇪❤️🇺🇦❤️🇺🇲
Slava Ukraini from Germany!
I have been saying that all along air defense is the first and foremost priority they need them in the hundreds if not thousands. Then they need offensive weapons and the capability to strike anywhere and everywhere in Russia.
Ukrainians are intelligent
Yes we are.
I am American. I have gotten to know the Ukrainians over the past 3 years, these people are AMAZING.
Resilient & fierce I might add.
Cleverer & a lot more educated than the average Russian.
Yes, for example most of the Ukrainian men refuse to fight and die in a war they can't win.
Is this an oxymoron?.
I know the current generation of Ukranian people who are part of the diaspora, 1.3 MILLION people.
They're stubborn, creative, determined, and will fight with everything they can to protect their children, family, friends and country.
The Russians seriously underestimated the people of Ukraine.
The administrations of the US, NATO, Europe have lost the idea that conflict is dirty, horrific and ugly, but sometimes it's necessary when attacked by an international bully.
🔱🇺🇦🇨🇦🤗
😂international bully check the last invasions of the last 20 years and see if who is the bully
I like this bloke, he always gives it to us straight. Cheers Chuck.
Russia is a ingrown toe nail, with some nail polish on top.
Slava Ukraina
Heroyam Slava!
@@steelytemplar heroyam slava
Heroyam Slava!!
Slava Baclava.
JAKE SULLIVAN HAS TO GO!!!!!!
Or modify his thinking, I agree completely.
"There is no General Grant on the Russian side". Never was a truer word said.😏
Except it is wrong. Wars are won by economy and logistics, not generals.
@@rursus8354 try to learn history before pontificating. What was Grant's strategy for winning the war? You think it was purely via battlefield exploits?
@@rursus8354 except you are also wrong, conserving manpower to create opportunities to go on the offensive and to defend the back lines is how wars are won. This ain't the US, this is a conventional force without the level of support and manpower the US has. Every day the war goes on, it's one less people to support the logistic support and enable needed offensive actions to reclaim the territories, as well as post-war rebuilding.
All generals that's not US need to keep in mind of both, logistic and offensive opportunities, with regard to the operation theatre bigger picture.
Outstanding!
Well done, gentlemen.
F16 are great but supplying Ukraine with something like Tomahawk (2500km range version) and permission to use them on military and logistic targets inside orkistan would certainly focus attention.
That'd mean giving them a $2.2b Arleigh Burke destroyer, which I'd be totally fine with. Or, converting the Mk 41 VLS to a ground launch system.
The problem is that tomahawk is only launchable from naval strike platforms-Ships & submarines. It’s a very heavy missile.
@@GrahamCStrouse I think the Ukrainians will find some ways to modify it for use, heck they already modified the soviet cruise missile for that task...
Mr. Pfarrer would be an invaluable NATO General, or have a top advisor role in the defense dept.
There is a reason why in Finnish verb "Ryssiä" (Muscovy ) , roughly meaning "to totally fail something".
Only thing the russians does best is die en masse.
well, they did failed the Winter War badly...
I have a book printed by the US Marine Corps about the 5th Marine Division during WW2. The book was given to my father as part of his honorable discharge from the Marine Corps. I haven't read it yet, but what an operation. Amazing. Russia is no where near creating nor managing any such division.
I could not agree more. Evil will be crushed at the end !
shame on putin
Sure russia / putin does understand, it just does not care as long as putin and his fellow criminals still feel personally safe and their kids are out of harms way aka in the West.
Is not Putin, all RuZZian are the same
Great interview with Chuck…. Glory to Ukraine from Australia.
Great Video Kyiv Post, Refreshing to hear that Ukraine has the advange and will win, thanks for sharing
Ukraine have some important & very material advantages but not the advantage overall.
Putin's abilities to force alot of the Russian economy into war production is a command & control that Kyiv simply doesn't have. That's one gigantic advantage of tyranny.
The Russian strategy of targeting civilian concentrations is why Ukraine desperately needs air defenses that it cannot yet make indigenously, though they're working on that.
Russia also has the larger physical combatant force by numbers & an overall larger population. Though their losses are indeed horrendous they still have plenty of men to throw away, & Putin's solid control over Russian radio, TV & online networks means that the Russians themselves don't know how bad their wartime losses actually are.
To Tens of Millions of Russians Putin still appears to be winning the War & victory is inevitable.
Encouraging analysis in favor of Ukraine. Thanks
We're definitely looking forward to it !!!
Optimism doesn’t help on front line, 14 Ukrainian new brigades still waiting for promised weapons, US administration playing waiting game, meanwhile in Europe friends of russia winning elections. This war will haunt western world for years to come. Pretending to help is much worse than refusing help
Yeah Chuck, buddy your right............. well done! Great presentation!
The CSA was not kicking the US at the beginning of the Civil War. This is a fact that is often overlooked because the newspapers of the day like today concentrate on Washington, DC. The South early on lost Island No. 10, Fort Donnelson, and Shiloh which opened the Mississippi River to Union assault. Then the Union army took New Orleans leaving only Vicksburg as a bridge between West and East in the Confederacy. While all the publicity goes to Gettysburg, that battle obscures the even greater disaster to unfold in the west with the fall of Vicksburg on July 4, 1863. While Lee was successful in the East through out the war, the war was won and lost in the west and on the seas. In those theaters, the South was losing the war from start to finish.
The ability of the Union army to move supplies and men, and maneuver into position was a crucial advantage. The Union knew this as well which is why they would raid and attack Confederate rail infrastructure. The South didn't have the industrial base or even the manpower to keep up with the maintenance and battle damage. The Confederates finished the war having lost substantial portions of the rail network. The Union laid new track throughout the war.
This is something the Ukrainians seem to have grasped although it would be good to see them attack Russia's ability to move and maneuver much more directly. They're doing good at hitting military assets, but that Kerch bridge and the rail bridge near Syvash really need to get destroyed if they want to move on Crimea. That would allow them to place troops and air defense systems in Crimea along with assets like F-16s that can make passes at the flanks of the Russian troops to the north in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. If they can disrupt supply there, the Russian positions will fold in a couple weeks.
Wasn't it Grant that was victorious in Vicksburg? Chuck was saying Grant made a real difference.
@Clean97gti The Kirch Bridge is essentially out. Russians move heavy stuff by ferry, and the Ukrainians sunk a few ferries too. They also collapsed some rail tunnels connecting Russia with N Korea and China, so now that stuff has to travel by sea as well. Ukraine is also slowly but surely destroying parts of Russian oil infrastructure for which they have no spare parts and little expertise at maintaining. So Ukraine has been doing a lot of things rarely reported on in western media that seems to have latched on to the ideology that "the Ukraine war is a stalemate ". Western media daily does disservice to Ukraine. That's why I watch "Reporting from Ukraine", "The Russian Dude", and others that give daily updates and analysis. They use good sources like the Institute for the Study of War and monitor Russian military bloggers to get verification of destroyed equipment.
@@i-love-space390 Yes, it was Grant and the Army of Tennessee. Sherman led a division in that army.
@@i-love-space390 Yes, Grant came from the West where he was winning from the beginning of the war. What I was taking issue with is the notion that the south was winning at the beginning of the war. We were losing from 1st Bull Run on. Only Lee kept the south in the war for as long as he could.
I think he’s right. Unfortunately, it migjt take 3-5 years.😢
That's what I think, too.
Barring outside influences happening like a Chinese Communist Party collapse or COVID coming back with a vengeance, the Russians indeed can keep warring until at least mid-2025.
Once 2025/2026 comes around, though, they better win or they better retire. They can't sustain a "war footing" set of economic conditions longer than 2 Years. The factories & the workers to keep Russia in "Large Juggernaut" status simply don't exist in Russia, & the sanctions will keep much help from arriving from beyond Russian borders.
Nevertheless another Year of War is still terrible on the Ukrainians.
Young Ukrainians all over the World, it's time to come home & do your part in this fight.
Your Country needs you, & She needs you NOW.
The real difference between the Vietnam war and this war is the US lost 55,000 men, the Vietnamese lost more than a million soldiers. In Ukraine the Russians have already lost in 2 years 10 times what the US lost in 10 years of war.
Fantastic interview I'm gonna listen more to this guy,
Definitely going to end Putin too.
In your dreams...
@@breakbollocks9164well yes, but pootin is not a spring chicken and he made his bed. Someone will take exception to him sooner or later.
@@breakbollocks9164, can Putin conceivably survive this gigantic mistake?? Mmm... I dunno, man, he made a deal with the Russian people.
"Give me your votes & I will guarantee your safety" is more or less the deal he made, & this activity DEFINITELY breaks that deal.
Even if you don't bother calculating their naval losses & disregard the Baltic Sea turning into a NATO backyard swimming pool, you can't claim this War hasn't been a disaster. The Russians have lost more men in 2 Years than any prior Russian invasion of any other Country, easily going all the way back to the mid-1800's.
Only the Crimean War was deadlier overall on a Russian invading force, & technically speaking this current War is deadlier on the Russians in actual firing combat.
(Most of Russia's losses in the Crimean invasion & War were from various diseases & septic infections.)
Also, shades of the Crimean War echo today. Russia lost control over the Black Sea during the Crimean War. Their defeat also influenced the Russians to make some pretty large societal changes, though of course giving up their drive for imperialist goals is not one of those changes which is why they're getting the stuffing sanctioned out of them right now.
@@breakbollocks9164 my very sweetest dreams. Putin will not end well no matter what.
No
0:30 Kronstadt is an island, with a military harbour, in the bay of Saint Petersburg. It's not an "exclave". He is confusing Kronstadt with Kaliningrad.
He's not confused about calling this Kaliningrad or the location; just a misuse of the noun "exclave."
Ukraine and America must remain united!!!
I was impressed how Ukraine's counter-reconnaissance forces stuffed the offensive in the north near Vovchansk. The Russians were stopped BEFORE getting to the 1st line of defense. One video Russian special forces marched closed up single file without point nor flank security right into a heavy machine gun ambush! If the special forces are so poorly trained, where are the trained soldiers capable of training replacements?
The analogies with the US failure in Viet Nam are superficially interesting, but with only a moment's thought it's pretty obvious the war in Ukraine is very different. Ukraine is a frontal war, fought by "conventional" organizational means & logistics. Neither side is fighting a guerilla or insurrectionary war; neither side has a large number of clandestine or "fifth column" (i.e. Maquis) in the other's territory, though Ukraine is somewhat advantaged in this regard. Militarily this war has become an attritional war like WW I in Europe; and Russia is fighting it very, very stupidly.
I think that Chuck Pfarrer brings up Viet Nam for the one very relevant analogy; it was a war idiotically entered by the US-- the very definition of an idiot war is one that you are better off losing than winning, and history has shown that to be the truth about Viet Nam. The same is true for Russia and Ukraine -- suppose for a moment that Russia were now to "succeed" in taking a great deal more Ukrainian territory? Russia simply doesn't have the resources to "pacify" Ukraine; it would become a massive bleeding sore for Russia. The better analogy would be both of the wars in Afghanistan: first the Soviet one and then the American one. Both got out when it became obvious that there was no way to win. The problem for Putin is that getting out of Afghanistan triggered the collapse of the Soviet Union ... though at least Gorbachev died in bed. If the USSR couldn't win in Afghanistan then it's absurd to think that Russia could win in Ukraine.
The only thing that amazes me about Putin's current "peace proposals" is that he is making them now. Why isn't he waiting to find out if Trump becomes president? This hints at utter desperation; that Putin is worried the situation in Ukraine will collapse before Jan 20.
Nah, you've got it backwards. Putin fears that Trump will cut off Russian and shadow fleet oil deliveries from Russia to India and China. That's Putin's desperation. No oil, no money. Game over.
It would be like the Vietnam war, if Russia actually took Kyiv. Which just shows how screwed Russia is. Even if they some how 'won' it would just go from this bogged down WW1 scenario, to a Vietnam for them. There would still just be Ukrainians out in the forest, drone striking random Russians and stuff. They literally can't win this war. They don't have the ability to take the land, and even if they took the land they don't have the ability to control it.
Even if Trump becomes President it doesn’t mean Congress will let him abandon Ukraine. I believe Congress has the majority needed to over rule any deal Trump will try to give Putin. It also doesn’t matter. With the delay in recent US weapons deliveries Europe greatly stepped up their supplies and it looks like Europe has decided Ukraine will not fall. Many European Countries are gearing up for war. They all just have to agree on how they are going to do it. But I expect EU troops to be in Ukraine in significant numbers by the end of the year.
Just marking that youtube is shadowbanning on this channel
@@matthewhuszarik4173- yes, though a president has many ways to slow walk something he is opposed to.
But what the MAGA pro-Russia faction seems to be too dense and gullible to figure out is that the recent funding act is about a year's worth of American war contribution , and Biden will ship it all before Jan 20. Trump's "day one" bluster is just exactly that.
Love you Chuck!!!! You cheer me up!!!
This was a great interview Jason. I absolutely love Chucks analysis. He knows how this will play out and explains it so effectively.
Personally, I am heartbroken by the losses of both Ukrainian AND Russian young men ! In another universe, those men should have been back home getting married, and having families. That's it. No other discussion.
And those men shouldn't be having affairs outside of their fiance, spouse, girlfriend, and even boyfriends ;). Look up the russian rapes of ukranians. I understand now why Ukraine can't just surrender to stop the killing of their own people because if Russian is allowed to take full control of Ukraine, the warcrimes like rape will be much worse.
God Bless 🙏🙏🙏 Ukraine and President Zelensky with Victory and Justice ⚖️⚖️⚖️
Victory to Ukraine
Russia realizes that it cannot do a military solution, so now it is trying for a negotiated resolution ! Keep up the pressure !
Of course it can. The thing is it would mean evacuation and destruction it wants to avoid
Excellent post, thank you gentlemen. Slava Ukraine!!
Brilliant
Yeah imagine being the poor sod that has to tell Putin he's losing.
Imagine being the poor sod that believes it 😂
Russia is winning across the board. And why would a poor sod from Ukraine be taking with the president of Russia?
‘We are really looking forward to it!’ - aren’t we just!!! 😂
Another great interview. Thank you. I hope Chuck is right 🤞
Thank you
SLAVA UKRAINI
The Drone technology changed everything..Slavia Ukraine
This is the kinda truth that you Will not get in the Media
Kjiv Post isn't the media?
@@istvanglock7445 l Totally agree with you on this point
I have to call BS. This is exactly what the western mainstream media spews out.
Ukraine needs to take Donetsk Airport.
Chuck, I knew on day one that Vlad could not take Ukraine and that Vlad will be bogged down forever.
Great guest speaker! Really enjoyed his insights and breakdown!
Wrong statement not United States it was the Republican politicians in the House of Congress.
Mike Johnson in particular... FDT!
Exactly! Red hats worship pootin, they are to blame.
It was the failure of the Biden White House to agree to any sort of border security, which would have been enough to get the Republicans to go along with the Ukraine aid package. Why were the Democrats so enamored with their trashing the immigration laws, in violation of their oath of office, that they held Ukraine hostage to that agenda?
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦♥️🤟🤟🤟
I like your brief introductions, efficiently combining the first question with the guest's credentials.
Anchors Aweigh, Chuck...I agree with you 100%
sorry - someone help me here . the ½ mill loss which is mentioned several times it is KIA or KIA+WIA ?
Combined
Generally, casualties = KIA + WIA + MIA + PoW.
Not included in the 1/2 Million is the men who fled Russia to avoid conscription, thought to be in ballpark of 800K.
The military, casualties, and draft avoiders are all younger to middle-age men, who now are missing from the work force. That’s got to be a significant impact on the Russian economy.
combined. Russian loss figures do not include casualties from Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, PMC's such as Wagner, or contracted fighters from outside of Russia.
Another 100k MIA/KIA could easily be accounted for here.
@@HooptieWagon Remember the problems the Russians had with frozen pipes last winter! All the maintenance and repair men had been killed or wounded in Ukraine.
It's what the Russians call "irrecoverable losses". Both killed and maimed. Ordinary wounded is not included in that figure (they tend to get recycled anyhow).
At the start of the invasion, my biggest worry is that we would go balls to the wall on a war economy and spend a 200 billion every year. I would have never guessed that we would be nickel and diming weapons that shoot at russian soldiers.
Absolutely spot on.
As a former Swedish speciel force vet! exactly my thougthts! Russia lacks competence in leadership and therefore they still going as they did during ww2! 27 million russians dead! wonder how loong the people will go for it?!
Peace talks, well see next year when the Russian military is weaker.
How you figured
😂next year you think Ukraines got next year wow there loosing 2k men a day that’s 30k plus a month dead not including wounded there is no next year for Ukrainian and victory is not coming accept it jackasses
We cannot re-elect the orange man here in the states. I fully believe in representative democracy. Ukraine deserves the right to choose its own path. We must support them fully if we believe in our own ideas of freedom. 🇺🇲💙💛🏁
Trump will ally with the winning party and with our American Republic.
Spread the word thanks
Nah, you've got it backwards. Putin fears that Trump will cut off Russian and shadow fleet oil deliveries from Russia to India and China. That's Putin's desperation. No oil, no money. Game over.
@@dan9002Trump will ally with what benefits trump not what benefits democracy. Get that traitor to the big house not the white house.
@@dan9002😅
Great to listen to an articulate Killer asses a situation he has first hand experience in. Great Interview, thank you and the Seal.
Excellent reporting. Thank you for your efforts.
"They're above half a million casualties in two years" - Chuck Pfarrer
Russians have never been allowed to forget the second world war in which, between June 1941 and April 1945, the Russian army lost 13 million soldiers. And still went on to win. That was about 3.5 million PER YEAR, that's nearly fourteen times as many casualties per year. So in comparison to the casualty rates of WW II Putin and the top generals aren't shocked at all by the casualty rates in their invasion of Ukraine. The casualty rates won't stop Putin.
That was the Soviet Army. The Soviets had a lot of non-Russians to draw on as cannon fodder, a lot more than Putin has now.
Completely different demographics. Completely different strategic situation. Completely different morale dynamics. The Ukrainians are and Russians are fighting on home soil, for their very existence and against a murderous regime. Russia was being heavily supplied and their enemy was fighting an enemy who was fighting on multiple fronts against all the Worlds superpowers. One can only imagine what would have happened if it was one on one. What you’re describing is an exercise in false equivalents.
😂Russia isn’t half a million but you can beat your ass Ukraine is a couple hundred k past that wake up to yourselves
"Благодаря невероятно успешной внешней политике путина у нас всегда будут полные холодильники! " - заявил директор Ростовского морга 🇷🇺 ...
That was so good, thank you.
Great to get to hear a real soldier give his opinion, says it as it is respect to this veteran 🇮🇪☘️🇮🇪
It's telling that all of this is known reality, yet a candidate for President in the US, a leading NATO member state, is actually advocating on behalf of Putin. It means that candidate campaigning against the incumbent is completely unfit.
Nah, you've got it backwards. Putin fears that Trump will cut off Russian and shadow fleet oil deliveries from Russia to India and China. That's Putin's desperation. No oil, no money. Game over.