Patrik Antonius SOUL READS With $825,000 On The Line!!!
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- Patrik Antonius is no stranger to battling for huge amounts of money at the poker tables. He is mostly known for his exploits in the world of high stakes cash games but here he finds himself 3 handed in a $25,000 Triton Poker tournament with $825,000 for 1st!
In this hand from the Triton Poker Series in Cyprus, Patrik Antonius finds himself in a tricky spot on the river as his aggressive opponent Fahredin Mustafov puts him to the test with just ten high!
On the river Patrik Antonius shows us all why he has stood the test of time and is still battling in the biggest poker games in the world. Using all of his time banks he really thinks the spot through and stares down his opponent before making his decision.
With just bottom pair on this board and facing aggression on every single street, could you find the call for your tournament life in a $25,000 Triton poker tournament?!
Thank you to Triton Poker for allowing me to use their video footage, check out this hand and many more over on their RUclips channel:
/ tritonpoker
This hand analysis was part of my Weekly Poker Hand series. I have been covering a poker hand every week for over 8 years!
You can find all of the hands I have covered in this playlist:
• Weekly Poker Hand
#tritonpoker #patrikantonius #pokerstrategy
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Would you have found the hero call on the river as Patrik Antonius? Be honest! 😅
No
Hell no.
No, because even if you rule out the A and Q, he could easily have 7 or 6.
Absolutely... not!
I mean every draw missed... So maybe...
Being all in with 10 high and having Patrick Antonios staring at me would be terrifiying
What does he make of the tell when you poop yourself?
Lol
you can see him breathing heavy
I would just melt and give him all of my chips to make it stop
thats why he gave off a big tell... scared
I cant believe he slowrolled him like that with his 2s
I once made a hero call with 10 high against an opponent's 9 high in a 5 card stud home game. My poker career has been downhill ever since.
And they think J4 call is crazy!
Patrick Antonius always manages to impress me, somehow. One of the only early members of online poker to actually have a really, really strong game.
Actually Patrik has a cool bluffcatching combo - he hasn’t a club or any card between 3 and T which unblocks all the bricked frontdoor flushdraws and every straight draw on the flop. Still very tough to actually pull the trigger to make this call at this stage, this is what makes him so strong.
That hand reminds me of the hand Patrick Antonius played against Phil Lack on High Stakes Poker. He also called with just a bottom pair (pair of 4) and won a huge pot!
I’m a fan of Patrik, as well. Well thought out play. Great analysis, Jonathan.
I think preflop is standard, although it's interesting that T8o in a cEV spot wouldn't always raise here.
Flop is interesting. Patrik could actually lead here a tiny percentage of the time with his exact hand (bottom pair with a backdoor flush draw) although in practice check is fine. Mustafov's hand gets to do a little bit of everything - it can check, bet small or even bet medium sometimes, although I'd think a small bet is probably best as it is likely the most effective at putting ICM pressure on Patrik. (even though in reality Mustafov should not be range betting here on this board) Patrik should always call, obviously with bottom pair and backdoor hearts.
Turn is standard for Mustafov, although I could argue that he's really not folding out a lot of stuff that Patrik calls flop with other than maybe some suited 2dxd or 2sxs type hands. That being said, Patrik is in a rough spot but I agree that call is probably best. Solvers would likely argue folding some % of the time to that sizing even with the heart draw, especially with ICM implications, but if we think Mustafov is betting way too many hands here we can probably always call . Jam really isn't a thing with pair + flush draws, the bluff jams are going to be the high equity combo draws like 85hh or 95ss.
Interestingly enough, if you run this through a solver, J2/T2/92 are a pure folds for Patrik on the river, while some worse 2x like 52 are calls. My hunch is that this comes from the fact that the J, T and 9 block a lot of the bluffs Mustafov will have. So for Patrik to call, he actually should feel like Mustafov is significantly overbluffing - which he likely is to pile on ICM pressure.
Fascinating hand.
Love the breakdown, just don't agree with the Antonius turn lead (even a tiny percentage of the time) just because you picked up a bunch of equity there and getting re raise jammed in that spot is horrendous. Did not do the solver work but I assume good spots for Antonius leading would be if the 6, 2 or maybe even the 7 pair because a lot of Mustafovs' range checks back in that situation.
Jonathan do you think there is some merit for Mustafov to only bet maybe 2 mio on the river, because it looks stronger than a jam?
I can easily say TM @ Poker Lodge ends up in this situation often & many a dealers have seen him nail it. Much respect!
Given the stack sizes the buttons ranged is nearly uncapped pre flop. He triple barreled so he couldn’t be more polarized. The run out let Patric get to the river and at that point it was a question of stack size. He figured this was a good a chance to win a big pot as he will have given the blinds. Always feels good catching a bluff.
did this at a 1/2 table now knees are broken.
I saw this hand. I also like Antonius.
I would have considered check-jamming the turn. This isn’t a prime consideration usually with a pair-but wouldn’t have assumed bottom pair J kicker had a lot of showdown. But assuming I check-called the turn,
On the river: we unblock all the flopped straight draws: T9, T8, 98, 54. That’s a lot of bluffs. It’s a negative we have hearts, but the front-door flush draw was clubs and we have no clubs either. So we are unblocking quite a lot of bluffs.
I think we have to know what the other stack sizes at the table are. Antonius is way shorter stack than Mustafov. I guess I fold if there are 1 or two tiny stacks at the table I could potentially outlast, but if I’m the shortest stack after the money I already put in the pot, I’ll do the hero call.
Actually it's not a negative to have hearts. Missed hearts usually should give up on the river since they block missed hearts from the villain :)
@@justsomeguy8018 haha that’s kind of interesting logic!
Can't decide if I would call based on what I know in the video. Patrick has been paying attention for a while to how he is playing at this point and that would inform my decision also.
Maybe Patrick saw a physical tell? The opponent was staring at him. Most of the time that is a bluff. He was trying to look strong. Should have stared at the cards. Maybe that helped on calling.
What about physical and verbal reads here? I have no history on villain. His bets are questioning. His voice goes up at the end. His demeanor suggests strength. Is he transmitting strong is weak here? Hero is watching.
Sometimes tells are relevant.
Great Video Johnathan ! Best call ive seen 2022 !!
Thank you for doing this video. I was hoping you would do an analysis after watchings this on facebook. More power!
Absolutely not finding the call unless I’m hammered thinking I have a set of 22
I would not have been able to make this call. I imagine more than just the action that Little describes here, Antonius had to have had some additional read to make the call he did. Imo, this is a much more impressive call than the 10 high call
against Fedor given the action and the board run out in that hand. In this hand, I’ve no idea how he reasoned out a call here.
A lot of times, an opponent is so aggressive that every time you check from early position, they bet: every time, on every street. That has to be a part of your thought process.
Very shallow stack poker at the end of a tourney is such a special different animal than your full ring 2/5 game. Like a different game. No way I’d make this call but I can see how study can get you to making calls in spots like this.
At what SPR do you think Antonius should have shove check raised on the turn?
Calling shenanigans on JL or the video footage!!!! how does the field go from 4 to 3 in the same hand?
That is textbook definition of hero call
See joey Ingram's ig post. Now that's an analysis of this hand #dankness
Amazing call. I wonder if the villian's cbet on the flop was 2/3 the pot if Patrick would still make the call.
In a heartbeat. I think Patrik had his mind made up on the turn. Being the movie star he is. Played the roll out. How about some backgammon Jeff. Is that you?
Johnny Rockwell?
Couldn't have called with the deuce, more than likely. I would've jammed the Qh on the turn, hoping Villain would fold.
I always appreciate your content. Thank you.
To answer your question: I'm never calling there. Which is (part of) why Antonius is a better player than me!
WOw such a nice call im almost for sure not able to make such call in such circumstances
that call was WAY beyond my ability...((
that buy in alone can be WAY beyond your wallet
Waiting for all the poker pros to comment saying it's a easy call.
I would have never made that call
Yes, I would have called. Any pair feels like the favorite. T8 I would shove flop and cross fingers. Seems like more fold equity
Are there really ICM implications when you are in the final 3, and you are the shortstack? I don't think so. How much did the other dude have? Patrick looked pretty short. Unless there were other tables running, which isn't likely.
Yes...that is when ICM is the highest...
@@PokerCoaching Yeah but when you are the shortest stack by a good margin? It's not like you are worried about busting before stacks shorter than you. You have to take +EV when you can if very short.
Thats a sick call by Patrick!
Mike Postle would have called. He wouldn't have even tanked for that long.
To the overy aggressive players, you just have to close your eyes, believe, and make the call
given how few BB's he has, and will have, you pretty much have to call there and just hope like hell he's got a bluff. as you said there are plenty of them, and far far fewer value hands in his range. not what I'd call an easy call but at that stage of the tournament it's pretty much fold on the flop or accept that you're bluff catching all the way down with hands like this (assuming you actually have showdown value vs no pair hands).
dealer in the secret lab chair?
Never couldve find the call 😅
Hell no I'm folding turn or river??? All in with 22??
Ace on the River made it tougher to call . The bet should’ve been 6.8m on the River if he has an Ace . But a shove ? is a bit smelly . Against this high caliber players like Patrick Antonius , you cannot make any mistake
Insane call but I think the best play would of been jamming the turn honestly in most situations. Obviously he got max value with this incredible call tho.
he made the best play, he got a full double up from it
The problem is, as John said, he has no fold equity against any better hand, every hand he is betting for value on the turn i.e. 7x + is gonna call him and he will be in horrible shape with one card to come. If he had smt in the ballpark of 20+ blinds behind at that point it would be a good play but in that situation I don't think the hand plays the same. As played however he has 12 blinds so around 8,5 more than what Mustafov already put in on his turn bet in that spot I feel even some semi bluffs like straight plus flush draws might call him and if they are of clubs I would not be thrilled with the call holding just the deuce there.
if I'm playing a 1$ tournament I"m calling 100%
It looked like Mustafov was attempting to use his big stack like a club and smash his last two opponents. I hope I would’ve made the call but it’s unlikely.
I don't know, man, his face (Mustafov), after the jam was not convincingly...
Its funny Patrick still looks the same as 20 years ago
I would not have made that call but probably all in on turn wow he is amazing!
No way I could have called
Afraid I would not have had that call in me.
Well maybe, we dont know the history of him, but even if he was a massive over agrassiv mega punter I might try to find a better spot.
Could be just me, but if I were Patrik, I would've been more concerned if the opponent bet one-third pot again on the A river, i.e. something like 2.2m into the 6.4m pot. That would scream value to me as the opponent is not putting me all-in and seemingly wants a call without me feeling like I'm risking my whole stack. I think I would've had a harder time making the call if the opponent took this line. Great call by Patrik regardless!
with that pot size it's pretty much all in or nothing
He has to be balanced by jamming all of his value bets (even the thin ones) in that spot because he is giving up a huge amount of equity by not busting you when he has it and the difference of 3 blinds when he value owns himself is marginal because the very last chip he takes from you is worth a couple of 100k. So basically everything from 7J to top set is a jam in that spot it's not like a cash game where you have different sizings dependent on hand type.
I would have fold preflop or check yam turn
I would probably find the call if i Did everything Patrik did to the river, but I probably would have check jammed the turn
Yeah I think you have to make the call you're already pot committed as far as you've been this far into the hand you have to call I mean if you lose you lose honestly you you know but you've already jumped most of your stack in this pot and you pulled what do you got left maybe five big blinds if you're lucky if you're lucky you got you just got a call and if he's got a better hand than he had a better hand that's all there is to it.
probably not
No, not me
If he folds he's crippled and if he's out he's third. If he wants to win calling is the only option. His best chance of winning is calling. Folding is likely third and calling has a chance of third but also getting enough chips to win. I'd call.
Nope, a pair of twos is a pure bluff catcher. I can see why Patrik did call. But it's a tough spot for your tournament life. If Mustifov didn't have a higher pair, he likely was bluffing with a K or a 10. Patrik blocked J so it is less likely than a K or 10, but possible. So he Patrik guessed correctly, it was a pure bluff. I don't know that I would have put that together in the time given.
SO IS THIS A PROFITABEL PLAY 😂😂😂❤
I would have called, villain would have shown Q7o for two pairs and poker internet would wonder if I had ever heard about ICM.
i wouldnt have made that call. but thats why he is a pro
Don’t think I would have been able to make that call. Might have even folded before the river…
I would've snap called easy all day!! Then wake up and make coffee before heading back to my bs job..
I could never make that call. What is also true is I'd never be in that tournament to begin with.
Congratulations to huge win! 💖 I know where you can get more than 78 free spins.Best choice.
It is funny to watch streamers winning big and pretending like its their money 🤣
I would fold that select version of J2 of hearts for sure. Other J2 would be the real question
No way I can call there.
no
If youre gonna hero call make sure theyre bluffing
I would have never called river with bp for my tour life as played, but I would have definitely shoved turn if I played at my current state.
2 days ago I would flip on the flop against this maniac chip leader.
I live for hero calls. I definitely call off.
I'd fold either on the flop or on the turn, that's why I'm bad player lol
Definitely would have folded, but it's a great call and makes total sense.
You only want to keep them in on the turn if you’re snap calling the river shove. If you’re folding then you might as well fold or shove the turn, almost no card can change your plan in this scenario unless multiple things hit. Like a 9,8 or a club
And the announcer is absolutely right that some hands that are bluffing are ahead. I’m not sure I like the turn call and river call with 2’s. Does the solver call here?
No I wouldn’t have found that call
Snap call
I think so, because you are already in the money, dude is agro, you would only have a few BB’s left over, and the other points you made about range. Hard to say sitting on the sidelines though.
Nope i don't make the call
I'd have shoved at the turn tbh 😅
No
I feel like this is fully being honest. In that situation I think I would have made the call. Given that pairs are harder to make in that situation and for all the reasons mentioned I feel like could have made the call. The club flush draw missed, the straights missed. I presume 4th got paid so I’m walking away up and I’m in it to win it. Close my eyes and call. Now all that being said in my low stakes games that’s a fold all day lol I play with people who never bluff the turn and river. They always have it! Always!
How can he do this? what cards did he put him on? maybe he is cheating
Never in a million years. Im no Antonius.
I would snap fold
I would have folded the turn already haha, makes me prolly a bad player :D
Heck no
You're checking 100% of the time if you have a pair there. He's all in with nothing. Not a good play.
What? 😂
@@juha-pekkarainio8770 Shove with nothing is a good play.
Never in a life time.
easy call duh
this type of call is what makes poker interesting, not bluffing necessarily
just bet BIG on the flop and end the hand represents own overpairs, what's wrong with these GTO 1/3 cbet anyway, its getting annoying everyone seems playing like a robot!
Gto is complete trash
no
No
No