Great video! I’d say that the return to player of scratch off tickets is much lower than that of traditional casino games you mentioned (like slots and roulette), because it needs to take into account the costs associated with the physical tickets being produced, distributed, and sold to players. It could also partially explain the higher house edge of low-value tickets, because these costs (production, distribution, etc.) may not necessarily depend on the value of the ticket. So, if a $1 ticket had an expected return of 80 cents (80% return), it would mean just a 20 cent profit for the company or state running the lottery, which may not be enough for the entire operation to be profitable. But an 80% return would be more than enough to cover these costs at a price of $20 or $30 per ticket.
Love the content! I've been playing and studying poker for a while now, and I've always been very interested by the EV calculation aspect of it, and risk management/probability aspects as well, but it's so hard to find good, easy to digest probability content. This is just what I was looking for. Keep it up! Thanks!
This analysis (and on other web sites such as scratch off odds) overvalues return. Main correction is to use present value of top prize instead of annuity (5800000, 3480000, etc instead of 1000000, 6000000, etc). Present value is on back of a ticket with annuity prize. Using present value for big prizes paid by specific schedule will correct return down by 10-20%.
Very interesting videos! From my several experiences in CA, if you win “ticket”, they give the cash value of the ticket. This might affect the EV depending on if the person wants to cash out vs buying another ticket of same value.
Can you elaborate on the steps at 1:45 and onwards. Why isnt the total EV of the ticket simply $0.064... why did you add that to the other prices and then updated ?
There's a article on 60minutes about an old couple that allegedly found a loophole in Michigan Lottery, could you explain what they did? How and how to spot those kinda of opportunities?
Minding The Data could you find the data on those mistery boxes such as nike’s and Loui Vitton? The ones they upload at - hybe. Com and places like that?
I think I'm going for maximum expected value and buying 3 $30 tickets and a $10. You can also see how many top prizes are left for each ticket at www.calottery.com/scratchers, so I think I'd go with whichever one has the most left.
If odds of winning 10 millions are 1 in 3 million, wouldn't be profitable to buy 3 million ticket's and make 7? I know you still can't be sure to win but it should have positive ev?
conclusion: The cheap tickets have a lower return rate because scratch off tickets take a lot of work (selling, storing, shipping, administration, servers) That is why the more expensive tickets have a highter return rate. the reason why the rate is still not that hight is because they are mostly sold at stores so the store has to make a profit from them but the scratch off ticket company also wants to make a profit.
Not really. Theyre counting on people to keep playing. The expensive tickets have a higher buy in but a higher perception of winning with the better odds. You dont mind losing as often if it is only a couple of dollars at a time.
dude good work, keep them up you're good at this..
You're like if casually explained was a powerful mathematician
Youre like the best commenter Ive stumbled upon
Great video!
I’d say that the return to player of scratch off tickets is much lower than that of traditional casino games you mentioned (like slots and roulette), because it needs to take into account the costs associated with the physical tickets being produced, distributed, and sold to players.
It could also partially explain the higher house edge of low-value tickets, because these costs (production, distribution, etc.) may not necessarily depend on the value of the ticket. So, if a $1 ticket had an expected return of 80 cents (80% return), it would mean just a 20 cent profit for the company or state running the lottery, which may not be enough for the entire operation to be profitable. But an 80% return would be more than enough to cover these costs at a price of $20 or $30 per ticket.
Underrated channel right here! Amazing work
Love the content! I've been playing and studying poker for a while now, and I've always been very interested by the EV calculation aspect of it, and risk management/probability aspects as well, but it's so hard to find good, easy to digest probability content. This is just what I was looking for. Keep it up! Thanks!
This analysis (and on other web sites such as scratch off odds) overvalues return.
Main correction is to use present value of top prize instead of annuity (5800000, 3480000, etc instead of 1000000, 6000000, etc).
Present value is on back of a ticket with annuity prize.
Using present value for big prizes paid by specific schedule will correct return down by 10-20%.
Very interesting videos! From my several experiences in CA, if you win “ticket”, they give the cash value of the ticket. This might affect the EV depending on if the person wants to cash out vs buying another ticket of same value.
Great content man, very informative (i came from reddit)
Your videos are super interesting and well made I can’t believe you’ve only made 3 so far good job👍
Goooooood information!!!
I am not sure how did youtube figure out i would be interested in your videos, but im glad I got here. Keep it up .. this has a potential.
Amazing work! Great graphs and use of math formulas
Subscribed since the first video! Great content :)
Spent 150$ on scratchers last week and didn't win on any of them, kinda explained the theory I run by
3rd video watched, great stuff man.
Hey...nice videos. Can you do Baccarat game math?
Great videos man, well thought out and thoroughly explained
These are really really good, keep it up. You have a great niche and do it well
Yea he is in my niche
Keep making videos this channel will grow rapidly.
Commenting to support!!
really well put together bro
very intriguing stuff man, it's cool to see you using graphing tools, python nd excel to help solve problems
I love your videos! very educative!
Amazing channel, instant sub, but please improve your audio quality
Thanks! I got a new mic for my most recent videos. Let me know if this is better
Great videos bro. Just work on the audio and you’re golden from here on out !
I remember learning this in calculus
Lets hope the YT algo gods bless this channel
great vids broo, keep em upp!!
I knew the ev was bad on those but I didn't know it was that bad!
I commented for the RUclips algorithm
I love your work man
very cool vid i have liked and subbed
Hella good video, thanks!
Dude good job
keep up the good work.
Do an Omaze video.
Can you elaborate on the steps at 1:45 and onwards. Why isnt the total EV of the ticket simply $0.064... why did you add that to the other prices and then updated ?
usually i dont leave a comment but since you are a new channel... keep it up :) but maybe get a better sounding mic ;)
Since lottery uses odds, would it not be (1 / 18) instead of (1 /17) and so on? Or are they actually using probability and call it odds?
Don't mind me, I'm just interacting
good work ! thx
There's a article on 60minutes about an old couple that allegedly found a loophole in Michigan Lottery, could you explain what they did? How and how to spot those kinda of opportunities?
Yeah! Check out my most recent video :)
Minding The Data just saw it! Greatt
Minding The Data could you find the data on those mistery boxes such as nike’s and Loui Vitton? The ones they upload at - hybe. Com and places like that?
Minding The Data idk if they disclose their codes but maybe somehow you could find it and explain it
Very good. Do you do consult work for small Ytubers. I would pay to have this analysis.
Hey there! I’d love to hear more about the analysis that you need done. Feel free to reach out to me at MindingTheData@gmail.com
at 2:17 you didn't use the iterated value of EV
If you had $100 to spend on the scratchers you analyzed ($1.00 to $30.00) which ones would you buy and why?
I think I'm going for maximum expected value and buying 3 $30 tickets and a $10. You can also see how many top prizes are left for each ticket at www.calottery.com/scratchers, so I think I'd go with whichever one has the most left.
Can you do a video about Roobets live game such as Monopoly and crazy time
you should match/compare this data to mr beasts video where he spends 1 million on scratch tickets
Cool vid
Goooooood evening friend and thank you for the info. Goooooood luck to you!🍀🎄🎁☃️🤑👍
Can you do michigan scratch off tickets or give website in comment?
If odds of winning 10 millions are 1 in 3 million, wouldn't be profitable to buy 3 million ticket's and make 7? I know you still can't be sure to win but it should have positive ev?
The ticket with the 10 million costs $30 each, so you would need to spend 90 million to win the 10 million.
conclusion: The cheap tickets have a lower return rate because scratch off tickets take a lot of work (selling, storing, shipping, administration, servers) That is why the more expensive tickets have a highter return rate.
the reason why the rate is still not that hight is because they are mostly sold at stores so the store has to make a profit from them but the scratch off ticket company also wants to make a profit.
Not really. Theyre counting on people to keep playing. The expensive tickets have a higher buy in but a higher perception of winning with the better odds. You dont mind losing as often if it is only a couple of dollars at a time.
Do video on Texas Hold EM
cool
oh
love your shit
If you were my math teacher I wouldve done a lot better in school
Ruining my dreams :(
Show me the money
nuts
:3
.
MrBeast has several great examples of this, where he actually bet tens of thousands (or even 1 million) in his last video and ended up with about 700k