Great find Tom! Do you have any thoughts or have you read anything interesting on how to go about calculating maintenance capex, either from an academic or qualitative perspective?
It can be really tough. It’s rarely broken out, although on some occasions you can find it. Depreciation and amortisation can be a starter, but it really depends on the business.
@@InvestingwithTom yeah that's true. I'm surprised more investors don't ask about it on conference calls.. I imagine the management would have an idea haha. Thanks for the reply :)
Great video, Tom! Also great sub stack you were able to find about Todd Combs talking about his role at Berkshire Hathaway. I totally agree with you when you said it’s one of the best things I’ve read this year.
Exceptional breakdown Tom, very glad to have come across this video. I like the specifics that Todd offers (confidence intervals, unit economics, impacts of scale, KPI changes) a lot of meat on this video to go through in more depth.
Hi Tom, I enjoy watching your videos. Thanks for putting them together. I'm not sure how to interpret, "How many names in the S&P500 are going to be 15X earnings in the next 12 months?" AAPL declining to a P/E of 15 makes it sound like a bad buy that wouldn't pass this screen? Or is this meant as a risk assessment? As in, "how many firms will not fall below 15X in the next 12 months?"
I also had the same question. Without context this question makes it sound like Buffett is trying to predict the multiple at which stocks are trading at. I thought that was something he specifically doesn't do. Any insight on this Tom?
The way I understand Buffett, he made this very clear, is that any asset has the more return potential, the lesser the current value is relative to its intrinsic value (sum of all future cash flows discounted to their present value). It however very challenging to correctly forecast things like capital expenditures or earnings growth at individual companies, often probably impossible. I do know that the S&P 500's historic average P/E ratio is 15, Apple falling back to a market cap of around 1.5 trillion US$ would not hurt Buffett.
@@janreichenbach265 Because large businesses tend to perform best when measured using capital performance. You could have a company looks very expensive when looking at price to earnings but when you look at capital performance the company can look like good value. PE is not a useless figure and should not be ignored as an extremely high figure might never allow a return.
Selecting a good quality business is not a complex process. Valuing a business is not complex either. What is complex is separating human emotion that influences selection such as I like what a company is because they make great phones, cars and so on.
Charlie Munger to Todd Combs: What percent of S&P 500 businesses will be a 'better business' in five years? Todd: less than 5%; The rate of change in the world is significant, which makes this exercise difficult, but this is something that Charlie, Warren and Todd think about.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024.
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
Honestly speaking, I will continue to trade and stick to Sylvia Nicolas daily analysis and guides as long as it works well for me..
I'm 42 and i am debt free because of sylvia.
Though I started with as low as $30,000 AUD actually because it was my first time and it was successful, She's is a great personality in Australia.
please educate me, i am willing to make consultation to improve my financial situations.
Mr. Tom,
As a long-term Buffett / Berkshire fanatic, this is great! Sincerely, thank you for posting.
- Brett
This is one of your best, Tom!
Thanks very much :)
Great find Tom! Do you have any thoughts or have you read anything interesting on how to go about calculating maintenance capex, either from an academic or qualitative perspective?
It can be really tough. It’s rarely broken out, although on some occasions you can find it. Depreciation and amortisation can be a starter, but it really depends on the business.
@@InvestingwithTom yeah that's true. I'm surprised more investors don't ask about it on conference calls.. I imagine the management would have an idea haha. Thanks for the reply :)
Great video, Tom! Also great sub stack you were able to find about Todd Combs talking about his role at Berkshire Hathaway. I totally agree with you when you said it’s one of the best things I’ve read this year.
Yeah, was a cool find!
Very informative Tom. I use Hatch for U.S, ASB and latterly Sharesies for ASX, NZX.
Thanks Tom, absolute treasure trove of information!
Yeah, it was an epic article to find!
Exceptional breakdown Tom, very glad to have come across this video. I like the specifics that Todd offers (confidence intervals, unit economics, impacts of scale, KPI changes) a lot of meat on this video to go through in more depth.
Glad it was helpful!
I wish there was a link to the actual meeting
Cyclicals always look expensive at the bottom and attractive at the top. Terrific summary!
Hey Tom is there a link to the full interview?
Food for thought indeed Tom
Thanks for posting
My pleasure :)
Hi Tom, I enjoy watching your videos. Thanks for putting them together.
I'm not sure how to interpret, "How many names in the S&P500 are going to be 15X earnings in the next 12 months?" AAPL declining to a P/E of 15 makes it sound like a bad buy that wouldn't pass this screen? Or is this meant as a risk assessment? As in, "how many firms will not fall below 15X in the next 12 months?"
I also had the same question. Without context this question makes it sound like Buffett is trying to predict the multiple at which stocks are trading at. I thought that was something he specifically doesn't do.
Any insight on this Tom?
Incredibly insightful. Thanks for the link to the article. Cheers.
Happy to share it :)
Great video and very interesting to hear things that Warren would normally not say
The way I understand Buffett, he made this very clear, is that any asset has the more return potential, the lesser the current value is relative to its intrinsic value (sum of all future cash flows discounted to their present value). It however very challenging to correctly forecast things like capital expenditures or earnings growth at individual companies, often probably impossible.
I do know that the S&P 500's historic average P/E ratio is 15, Apple falling back to a market cap of around 1.5 trillion US$ would not hurt Buffett.
The PE ratio is only really a factor with small business valuations. It becomes less important as the business gets larger.
@@Art-is-craft Huh ? Why is that ???
@@janreichenbach265
Because large businesses tend to perform best when measured using capital performance. You could have a company looks very expensive when looking at price to earnings but when you look at capital performance the company can look like good value. PE is not a useless figure and should not be ignored as an extremely high figure might never allow a return.
Great recap
Thanks Tom!
Selecting a good quality business is not a complex process. Valuing a business is not complex either. What is complex is separating human emotion that influences selection such as I like what a company is because they make great phones, cars and so on.
Excellent content as always. Thanks!
Great summary, thank you!
I was happy to stumble across the article!
Great episode, Tom!
Thanks mate!
great vid tom! very interesting
Thanks Ben :)
I thought after the information age it was the spiritual age. Can't see anyone being spiritual but warring❤❤🎉🎉
Very interesting video, as always. Great work.
Thank you! Cheers!
Did you actually attend or otherwise hear the interview or did you read the Summary?
This is gold!
Thank you :)
Mauboussin (mentioned in the substack) is also a great figure, highly recommend his writings
Haven't read much of his work, but have heard very good things
Great vid!
Thanks :)
hey TOM,where are u , we miss u....
Wow, This is like Todd as a whale who finally surfaced
I’ve been really curious about him
Thanks
Click bait
Charlie Munger to Todd Combs: What percent of S&P 500 businesses will be a 'better business' in five years?
Todd: less than 5%;
The rate of change in the world is significant, which makes this exercise difficult, but this is something that Charlie, Warren and Todd think about.
You got it!