2024 NFL MOCK DRAFT: Inspired By The Betting Market | PFF NFL Show
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- PFF's Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo do a mock draft that is inspired by the betting market suggesting to us where each prospect is likely to land.
0:00 - Intro
5:20 - Pick no. 1
5:50 - Pick no. 2
14:00 - Pick no. 3
16:20 - Pick no. 4
22:30 - Pick no. 5 & Pick no. 6
28:50 - Pick no. 7
29:40 - Pick no. 8
30:00 - Pick no. 9
33:09 - Pick no. 10
36:07 - Pick no. 11
43:55 - Pick no. 12
48:55 - Pick no. 13
52:15 - Pick no. 14
54:17 - Pick no. 15
5:25 - Pick no. 16
1:00:35 - Pick no. 17
1:04:00 - Pick no. 18
1:07:25 - Pick no. 19
1:10:05 - Pick no. 20
1:10:55 - Pick no. 21
1:13:22 - Pick no. 22
1:20:13 - Pick no. 23
1:22:29 - Pick no. 24
1:28:00 - Pick no. 25
1:31:00 - Pick no. 26
1:33:30 - Pick no. 27
1:34:45 - Pick no. 28
1:37:00 - Pick no. 29
1:49:00 - Pick no. 30
1:50:00 - Pick no. 31
1:50:55 - Pick no. 32
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Turning Odunze into Thomas Jr. for just the 90th pick would be very underwhelming. Adding to the four picks doesn’t automatically bring more value in this draft.
If these guys actually would listen to Poles they'd realize this isn't happening. They want a blue chip guy with the pick and aren't going to trade back that far. Poles has already basically said this is more of a quality over quantity draft, with a lot of kids going back to school. We aren't trading back to get 3rd and 4th round picks when the quality depth, according to Poles, is less this year than it will be next year when the Bears have way more picks throughout the draft. If we trade back, it'll be a small trade back to still get one of the blue chip guys they've identified.
@@jroe25yt8the Patriots are in the same boat… people saying they’re going to trade back just doesn’t make sense, ESPECIALLY with the Vikings. They would miss out on every blue chip player, including the top 4 QBs, top 3 WRs, and potentially 2-3 OTs. I get it’s a rebuild for the Patriots but the only people who think it’s a good idea is Vikings fans who want Drake Maye 💀 Trading back in the first round in this years draft is one of the worst things a team can do, unless they don’t have any major needs. I think draft day trades are going to cost a lot more, and there’s going to be less of them with NIL deals and kids staying in college until they’re forced to leave. There’s crazy good talent at the beginning, and then a cliff to the next tier of players in pretty much all positions.
Argue with Arjun Menon lol. He’s the one who came with these terrible trades.
Id take brian thomas over odunze honestly
@@kevenadrien Totally. Not arguing or shooting the messenger. Just saying, the proposed scenario seems like it's based on an odd understanding of draft capital value for 2024.
I love listening to you guys. Thanks for the years of great conversation.
Personally, I loved the Dumb and Dumber joke Steve. 10/10 drop
I was hoping other people picked up that joke at 1:55:35 🤣
As a Bears fan I agree 100% - I would be very annoyed if we left Rome on the board and traded down to take BTJ. However, trading down abit to take Latu / Verse and then adding another WR with the pick we get sounds great to me
As a Bears fan, I would hope they draft Odunze if he’s still there at #9. If not, I like the idea of them moving back to add more picks. They were in the same position last year, traded back from #9 to #10 with Philly, still got Darnell Wright and used the 4th to add Tyler Scott. It remains to be seen what he can be, but adding a 4th to move back one spot, so another team can take a guy you have no intention of taking - that’s what good GMs do.
#9 is a pretty key spot where teams will be looking to move ahead of the Jets to take an offensive weapon, so they should listen to all offers.
If they trade back and still get BTJ, that would be great too, but not at #11. It would have to be like #18 or later in my opinion. I have 1.05 in my 1QB league, and I would love to have him fall to me after the Top 3 and Bowers go.
I would get Brock bowers at 9 if I was a Chicago Bears fan. He can block and he can run very good.
If this happens for the Bears I would lose my mind lol
no way the bears do that! lol
Michael Penix's positive traits are viewed as negative. Oh but he was in college for 6 years (thats a lot of development which is good). Oh but he was on a great team (thats a lot of experience with good players thats a good thing, just look at CJ Stroud). He ran a 4.4. but he never runs in a game (thats means he'll stay healthy like he has the past 2 years and if he does run he'll pick up a ton of extra yards which are good things). Rant over.
Yeah facts I don’t see the big gap between Jayden and Penix like everyone’s making it seem like. Daniels is only more athletic but lacks passing over the middle and doesn’t always go through progressions before trying to run. Both were on great teams. Not sure why everyone harps on Penix besides age (which doesn’t matter at qb) and injuries but he hasn’t been injured in 2 years.
Penix stayed healthy the last 2 years only because he was playing behind the best pass blocking line in the college ranks. He was rarely even touched. That won't happen in the NFL, where BTW...some teams RIGHT tackle will be protecting his blind side. He's a 2nd round pick IMO.
I love Arjun, he does great stuff with Guilty as Charged
so bears trade back 2 spots to lose out on the best available WR just to reach for another wr.... but hear me out, YOU GET 90TH PICK. wow, poles should be fired on the spot
Dolphins don’t value IOL enough to draft a likely RG in the first round . Brewer is locked into Centre. So Centre is not a big need. JPJ would play RG.
The last time the Dolphins drafted IOL in the first round was Mike Pouncey in 2011. So 13 years ago. Not happening under any situation.
They can get an above average solid guard at 55.
The funny thing is Sam said the exact reason why Dolphins won’t be drafting a likely guard who can play centre in first round.
That trade for the bears is dumb af. Would take way more than 90 for me to downgrade from Odunze to BTJ.
Lots of top50-100 picks would need to be traded to Chicago to move off any of their first round picks 😅
The recent Brad Spielberger trade idea from their website: Saints get 9th and 75th overall and Bears get New Orleans' 2024 1st, 2nd and 168th overall (?!) selections is highly laughable 😂
# Only Poles Knows # In Ryan We Trust
Agreed. If Odunze is available at 9 you take him. No questions asked. Only trade down if not available.
@@chrisrakow9745 I'm not even arguing whether that return would be enough for pick 9 or not, I meant it more that in that particular situation, between those two players, I think the gap in talent is way more than pick 90.
Its as if these PFF clowns don't follow their own big board. imagine the Bears actually trading the #6 player in Odunze for #28 BTJ, getting only a late 3rd.
If Poles were to trade out of the blue chip zone he better get at least a 2nd the Bears currently lack.
@@redrum154 Did you watch the video? They explained the circumstances of mock draft that they were covering.
Loving the NZ Maori jersey
Hey Sam, The Saints new kicker, Charlie Smyth is from Ireland 🇮🇪 and he said “Gaelic Football” is the biggest thing in Ireland, “every village has a team”. Why have you never mentioned “Gaelic Football” Sam, and what the heck is it?
The Saints kicker had an accent that was also much thicker than yours and he said “Wee” & “Lads” a lot more than you do Sam.
His accent was so thick I had to verify my Lucky Charms hadn’t gone missing.
What happened to Georgia's OT Amarius Mims?
ESPN Milwaukee used to do an annual Mock of the Draft
I know Minny has to trade up BUT with Verse falling to 23, if you’re Minny would you rather have Penix and Verse (keep 11 and 23) or just trade up for JJ?
Steve should show the footage around 1:55:00 as evidence why he shouldn't be allowed to serve.
this is not Steve getting out of jury duty; this is the justice system gaining a morsel of integrity! way to go, Steve, a real american hero! 🎉🥂🥳🎉
Light package for the #4 pick
It’s really not. Picks 11 and 23 have nearly the same pick value as the 4th pick on almost all trade value charts.
Graham Barton going to the Green Bay Packers is feasible.
The GB OL roster has players that can each play more than 1 OL position.
Barton checks that box.
However, GB tends not to make R1 OL picks.
Drake to pats! Can’t wait. I hope with our early second they get Xavier Leggette. I think he will be a stud in the NFL in a couple years. Drake will end up being very similar to Josh Allen, and will be the best quarterback in this draft throughout their careers. Caleb might be better year one but we’re looking for a franchise quarterback. Drake has the potential to be elite and don’t forget he threw 70 throws at his pro day, and he threw very difficult throws. More throws and more difficult throws than the other quarterbacks pro days. He was making a statement.
Penei Sewell vs JaMarr Chase. BUT ALSO:
Penei Sewell VS Rashawn Slater.
MOST OF THE 2021 draft redo’s out there have Rashawn as the best tackle and Sewell a late first round pick….
Because of Teez Tabor I got scared when Brad Holmes picked Brian Branch. I’m glad I worried for nothing but as a Lions fan to see Tabor just fail the way he did because of his speed woke me up to the 40 yard dash results. For DB’s anyways.
Ranking the 2020 qbs
The arguing over who the Bears would take if they trade down to 11 is moot. They probably won't do it if Odunze is there anyway - and they surely wouldn't to get just the 90th. The Cards have 35, 66 and 71. One of those would have to be included to give up Odunze.
So who did Philly draft again?
If Vikings move up to 4, it’s not just those 2 1st rd picks for the 4 spot swap. I’m seeing those 2 picks, and a 3 atleast next year
Ayyy happy birthday Steve, didnt know we shared a Bday I turned 21 yesterday
yesterday you were exactly half Steve's age, to the day, that's crazy, man 🤯
Every year for the last decade the Seahawks have needed a QB, and every year the team is too good to be able to get into the QB market. I’m genuinely curious at this part of the rebuild, how would PFF go about taking the next step of the rebuild given the rest of the team is in such good shape at the premier positions other than QB?
Betting odds at the top of the draft shifted hard after this video was made.
These were the same dudes who ranked Mitch Trubisky as the #1 QB in 2017
Need more Arjun content!
Penix to the Raiders at 13? I thought Al Davis was dead.
Agree, but if you think there's a QB that has the potential to hit, throw the book out on draft position value. Without a QB you're going nowhere. I can see at least one or two teams reaching on QBs.
From a Cardinals fan perspective, I can tell you any trade that doesn't include at least three first-round picks will be met with significant fan revolt. Throw the charts out. We're not only talking about factoring a "QB tax." There also needs to be enough compensation to justify not drafting the best player on many team's boards, at least the Cardinals board (likely MHJ or Nabers).
The 23rd pick is not enough to pass on MHJ or Nabers. And next year's Vikings first will likely be out of the top twenty. So, I think they'll need to include one of the three third-round picks they are projected to have in 2025 (after compensatory picks are allocated).
I keep seeing proposed trades that only include the two firsts this year from The Vikings. I've even seen a few that have the Cardinals including even more picks (besides the #4 overall). That's absurd.
If they only go with the two firsts or anything that includes even more picks from the Cardinals (especially anything in the first four rounds) they will lose the fanbase.
The Cards need to hold firm at a minimum of three first-round picks++. If not, most Cards fans would expect them to stay at four and take MHJ or Nabers.
Orn3ry UofM Dad here.. end that stream laughing my rear off.
Cardinals would need to move up to 8 to get rome because o think the bears stock and pick. An extra draft pick to miss on the top wrs isn’t worth it.
As a raiders fan I can confirm these guys had nothing nice to say about Tyree Wilson at 7.
It's highly unlikely Miami drafts JPJ at 21. They just got Brewer to be center. They're going to draft a high-value position like edge or OT, or they could draft someone with a first round grade if they drop due to all the QBs getting drafted. Newton would be a great Wilkins replacement if he's available. If Latu and the best OTs are gone, they could trade back and use the picks to fill out their roster with quality cheap talent.
I’m confused though.. Shouldn’t a player’s grade (i.e. Nabers vs Harrison) be the very thing that selects out for factors like QB and situation and simply grades the individual as an individual? Like what else is a grade on a player if not the grade on that player? If other players come into the final grade, then I would say you’re doing it wrong.. Having said that, Nabers is the best WR in this draft..
Only way Eagles are adding a CB is in a Trade. Any CB's in this draft would be at best 6th on the depth chart. Slay, Rodgers and Hall will be the starters with Ringo' Ricks Jobe and Bradberry as backups
If and big if bowers is there for bengals at 18 i would hope they sprint to the podium tired of 1 yr rentals
The assumption that Sean Payton would see Bo Nix as a better prospect than Jarrett Stidham is highly questionable. Nix had to transfer to a perfect situation to stand out. He followed OC Kenny Dillingham to Oregon after a very average 3 years at Auburn in order to stay in that system. BTW...Stidham was grossly unprepared for the NFL when he first came out in large part because he was a product of Gus Malzahn's system, which is one of the worst in preparing QBs for the NFL. Stidham had the good sense to come out after his junior year to start his NFL career. Nix was in that system for three years also, two at Aurburn & one at Oregon.
The really pathetic thing is that no matter which WR the Giants chose we don't have a QB that can get him or Jalin Hyatt the ball. Hyatt was the fastest man in the NFL last season. He went 4 games where he was targeted ZERO TIMES!!!
Thank God not shit content today just because.
I’m suprised no one has the falcons trading or the Giants trading.
If Odunze is available at 9 the Bears are not trading down lol.
Yeah cause you’re best friends with Ryan poles right?
@mattoie3828 Will come back to this comment in 25 days
🔥@@skeeter1858
@@skeeter1858just saying that no one has any idea what these gms are actually going to do until the picks are announced
Kind of weird how these hosts mention "how mad will viewers be" so many times.
I love Latu as well. But will GMs have the guts to pick him with the medical red flag?
I don't understand how do many people seem more concerned about Maye's missed throws than they did with Anthony Richardson last year. Maye looks like Drew Brees compared to him
AR10 was a special athlete. Everyone rightly pointed out his accuracy issues, but the man could have switched positions to tight end and still have been a day 2 pick.
20:20 To Sam's point, it blows my mind that people let single games and pro-days sway entire season's worth of data.
That mic must be strong AF, because I can hear that dude moving change around in his pockets.
I'd rather take Bowers over BTJ @11
Also klatt who is the best college quarterback, analyst let’s be honest guys. Has Drake going number two for a reason. So I will be very happy if my patriots get him. I would also be just as happy if we get Jaden. They are both going to be great quarterbacks.
Klatt is blinded by in person biases.
I would bet money that the Cardinals stay put at 4, and the Chargers trade down from 5.
This is definitely an April fools draft... picking Thomas Jr. When Latu is available, is comical.
Guys......the Steelers have NO Centers on their roster. Don't bet they don't take Jackson Powers Johnson at pick 20
Tulane prince pines
And lets make the lions reach. I know this is market based but it just feels like pff hates us
Aaron Donald said TJ is the best defensive player and should have won 2 more DPOY, sorry guys your win rate is only 1 aspect
AZ needs Newton more than OL/C unless JPJ in available. AZ may trade with Titans not CHICAGO at 9
Do we really think the Chiefs are going to take a WR with so many bad drops when that's one of the main reasons they even need a WR?
One thing about worthy, media doesn’t cover about the drops that was mentioned is he played with a broken hand that affected him.
Perfect for the Bears. Chris’s Simms #2 receiver in the draft at 11? Sweet.
BTJ is a talent for sure, but I'd feel a lot better if that #90 pick was instead #66. Then you can take your biggest defensive need at #11 and then you're in the R. Pearsall/J. Polk/X. Lagette range at #66.
This I could live with as a Bears fan with how highly Odunze is thought of by a lot of experts.
You're acting like Chris Simms knows anything about football. 😂
Their assessment of Maye is off a bit. His footwork is what makes him the highest chance to bust. He does not read the defense well that’s why he’s so erratic and inaccurate. He’s not marrying what he sees to his drops and lining up with them. That’s why he has so called upside bcuz he’s not very good right now. He has room to grow. He doesn’t deserve to be top 5 in this draft. Inconsistent players should not go top 5. QB or otherwise.
The cardinals trade makes zero sense why do we use so much logic at some points and abandon it at will lol...they have no wr1 they have their choice of whichever at 4 makes zero sense they have all the draft capital they need this draft already its just moronic
JJ McCarthy is going to be the third Qb taken, he is better than Drake May, May is the next Daniel Jones.
You have no idea what you're talking about
Spent the whole Raiders segment talking about the broncos, typical
Maye has a higher likelihood of being Sam Darnold than Justin Herbert. So many red flags when you watch full games but people fall in love with the occasional wow throws.
This is what I don’t understand Jayden Daniels has arguably more red flags than maye
@@Wwyou617 Daniels has his issues but I like his floor over Mayes. I like that his processing allows him to take all the lay ups and not panic in the pocket. He has his own issues with the pocket sometimes but I’d rather him use his ultra elite scrambling ability to escape than Drake going wild where he’ll either get sacked or throw something up for grabs.
@@RB-.- You have no idea what you're talking about.
1. Drake Maye - Bears
2. J.J. McCarthy - Redskins
3. Joe Alt - Patriots
4. Cooper DeJean - Cardinals
5. Brock Bowers - Chargers
Next mock draft should be round 2. Only so many new things to say about the same 32 players
"blame capitalism" - sadly, applicable to soooo many things...
Rashee Rice will be fine. He‘ll get suspended and come back better for the second half of the season
The more I hear about PFF GAS, the more I become convinced it’s a terrible metric. Sorry guys but it’s an opportunity based effort measure. Any defensive player trying to chase someone down for 40 yards will get a good GAS, but if you don’t have that opportunity, it will be lower?
Some players have gotten torn down for “low gas” while other players get poopoo’d for “high gas” because it’s opportunistic.
The way you guys have used it in the past 3-5 shows makes it entirely sound like a bias confirmation number (because almost every draftable player is in the 80th percentile or better)
Everybody talked about all the problems with CJ Stroud last year too
.It was obvious he was the top QB. Maye IMO will end up the best QB in the draft. Alot depends on where they go.
Maye is overrated stop making excuses for Him. JJ is a Winner love that Kid.
#2 will be JJ
The Bears would be utter fools to do that trade down at 9. Do better guys, move makes 0 sense.
Have you watched any of their other mocks? This one is based on betting markets.. not their straight opinion. Do better guy..
@@ianmarcusiu8703 Then they got bad info, because anyone with a brain would not bet on Poles trading down if any of the big 3 WR are at 9. Again they need to do better lol
Maye had one of the worst pro days in recent memory he's not going 2.
Missed the point of this mock. Its not where they think players are going. Its where the odds say they are.
@@gaps2420 I'm aware I was talking to the point with how high they are on Maye. He has bust written all over him. He couldn't hit out routes struggled with crossing routes and threw a poor deep ball.... The only reason people like him is because he can throw 75 yards and has some athleticism. But having a huge arm doesn't matter if you can't his the receiver.
@nevadapoole6180 WTF are you talking about? Did you even watch his pro day? He lit it up. He had like 3 misses out of 70 passes. The three misses, he corrected on the very next throw. Scouts and coaches were oohing and ahhing at a lot of his throws. At least do basic research before throwing shit on the wall and hoping it sticks. What you said is just utterly false.
@@robertb67 bro I did dude missed 6 passes with no defense or pressure😂😂😂 the only way he has any shot of not busting out is if he's throwing to JJ and Addison 😂
@@nevadapoole6180 Man, just stop. You look like an idiot or a troll. You know you didn't watch it. You probably read some idiotic comment from Chris Simms and just assumed it was true. Jayden missed on a few deep balls at his pro day. I didn't bother watching JJ because he isn't going in the top 3. Drake had a good day and was receiving praise after it. I watched it live. You saying he had the worst pro day in recent memory is complete BS.
Bears should take Maye or at least trade down with the Commies to take him. Maye is the safer pick and has everything you need except for the occasional inaccuracy and few head scratching decisions.
Maye isnt safer
@@abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz4610 Yeah, that's one of the last words I'd use when comparing him to Caleb.
@@abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz4610 how so?
Bad take. Very bad.
0% chance. U should watch basketball instead.