Is It Ok To Guess And Not Test!?
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- Опубликовано: 9 фев 2025
- In this video I bring you along as I "take a guess" at a customer car to fix their intermittent ABS light. I explain the why in the beginning and again at the end of the video.
-Enjoy!
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I just want to make sure I am clear when I say that as a general rule I DO NOT condone "guessing," if you will. There are rare instances when there is an intermittent problem in front of me that I can not duplicate I may elect to use an educated guess providing it is cost effective and most importantly understood by the customer as nothing more than an educated guess. Was I clear in the video and is there any questions when I think it may be appropriate or inappropriate for that matter?
-Eric O.
You were very clear - I guess 😂
Comes under "sometimes it better to be lucky than good".
Crystal clear!
Eh. Im fine with this type of guess, based off of experience. I do the same for clients when their computer is malfunctioning in some way. Its better for both of us when I do. Its easy to spend hours and hours on a computer problem. Its not feasible to bill $700+ for shop time on a computer that is more than a few years old and barely cost them that when new.
I call it "green crusties" all the time(before opening the hood)...90% right(yes I live in salt country)
It is ok to "take a guess" when your guess is educated and not just blind guessing. You never blind guess.
Going back a long time ago and I'm not google driven... isn't a hypothesis an 'educated guess'?
Parts cannons truly suck.
@@defresurrection Actually no. A hypothesis is an assumption, an idea that is proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true. The hypothesis may have some grounding in fact but that's not part of what defines a hypothesis.
@darkerbinding6933 thanks for the clarification, it's been a while. For some reason it stuck with me.
Edit: You made me google, lol. There is support for my memory and your reply. Go figure.
@@defresurrection Its why reasonable dialog is always good. have a great day.
Spock : [to Dr. McCoy] I don't think he understands. McCoy : No, Spock. He means that he feels safer about your guesses than most other people's facts. - From Star Trek IV The Voyage Home.
Exactly how I feel about Eric O's guesses because it's called experience.
Thanks for reminding me to watch StarTrek again
I think most of us who watch this channel know that you don't normally just guess and throw parts. However, the benefit of your experience is what makes this an option, particularly if you've been transparent with the customer.
I second that. You're a good operator. Anyone thinking of criticizing you needs to watch any of a multitude of your previous videos to verify your diagnostic skills, skills that many, many others don't have. You have also taught me heaps. Retired 72 yr old mechanic/machinist in Land Down Under.
@@bobhudson6659thirded
Plus we've all seen the, "We've confirmed it, it really is the speed sensor. Fortunately I already went ahead and ordered the speed sensor, because of course it was the speed sensor."
My teacher in auto shop used to call it the SWAG method, Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
Gotta remember this one lol
In the military, we used EWAG. Educated wild ass guess.
The problem is when it becomes the norm. You could mistake not having the right tools to do proper diag with not worth my time to chase this and take a guess.
SWAG, love it, I’m stealing that 😊😉🤭🤭👍🏼
Poor McCoy being asked about “…his rubbers.”😂😂
He said he thinks his rubber still attached😂
@@AtomWin82 That's funny 😂
@@AtomWin82I could barely hear what he said
That young man is going to learn a lot.... The right way.
Who is he? Evidently I missed the introductory video.
"i don't want to translate it all, it says genuine Gm on it". That explains why i watch you right there.
On the original Star Trek, the captain's nickname for Dr. McCoy was "Bones". Hope that clears it up for you ! 😂😂
Old nick name for a doctor is a Sawbones
In The Doomsday Machine episode, Dr McCoy says "I'm a Doctor, not a mechanic!"
We didn’t have 400 channels of satellite TV back in the 60’s, so no, you don’t have to be a nerd to have watched Star Trek back in the day.
McCoy's wife took everything but his bones when she left, according to him. Thus Bones. Now somebody more into it than me will correct me 🤣🤣
Needs one more intern named Scotty, then we can hear " she can't take much more of this Captain!".
You're a goddamn hero my man. Wish more mechanics were as conscientious about making a repair to outlast the car
What!!!!! Eric pushes the button on the parts cannon?!?!?!? I'm telling Ivan at Pine Hollow!!!
no farts required but i dont think eric gives two schlitzif you do tell lol
I'm telling Paul "Scanner" Danner!!!
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Ivan would have cleaned the connector and sent it on it's way then changed the sensor and connector when it came back.
Scottie already told them.
79 year old mechanic still learning . Love the small socket wrapped in insulation tape for winding around in tight spaces . you are not guilty of shortcutting .. you ARE guilty of calling in the years of experience you have amassed .Priceless.
There's a monumental difference between a parts-cannon, shotgun guess and a professional experience *educated* guess. Heck, if anything, the exception proves the rule. Awesome job as always, Eric.
I am a factory trained person and you are a field trained professional and I would take your best guess anytime over a lot of so called dealer trained persons any day Eric. Thank you for sharing all of your talents.
Wish the world had more honest mechanics like you. Good to see Mrs O back
An honest mechanic would of told this customer to get rid of this pos asap. Buick Encores or one of the biggest rolling catastrophic failures you could possibly own 😂
I guess you could tell most customers that walk though your door the same thing. Most of todays cars are over-engineered junk. Probably will not have any customers soon.
@@rolandthethompsongunner64 An honest mechanic always helps the customer with proper diagnosis, repairs and information. Most people cant afford to just throw away a car and get a new one because the mechanic says its bad. Saying "get rid of the car and get a new one" is not an honest or good mechanic.
“I see, said the Blind man, to his Deaf Daughter”…..Love your videos, you have skills!
I hope McCoy is keeping a notebook with all of your educated guesses. You guesses are based upon years of experience. You just can't have enough experience. Great job guys.
Somebody beat me to it, but the key is "educated guess" and not just 'guess'. It's what separates a great tech from a parts changer. Knowing how the part is supposed to operate and what's involved in it doing its job, past experience, etc are critical. And of course, you being who you are, the other part which is just as important is being crystal clear with the customer about the process.
Dear sir. You don't need to make light of your issues with your fingers anymore. We all have medical issues and we totally understand. Fortunately, a lot of people have that type of situation and I'm sure it's difficult situation but. No need to mention it. We understand. Love your channel and watch it forever. Been watching it forever. Take care sir
Once again Eric, you're keeping it real! McCoy is getting some real world experience from the real doctor!
The Real Doctor? Is that another SciFi reference? Doctor Who? No, Doctor 'O'
One of the reasons this channel is good..the editing out of dead time, seamlessly.
Wait a second. Did i just see Eric, the best Diag mechanic in the USA take a GUESS at a repair???? Good lord above Eric you actually are human. Makes absolute sense in terms of time and dollars. Keep em coming
Give McCoy a SMA hoodie.
Experience gives you the ability to guess , I have been fixing cars for 30+ years and yes when its super intermittent . I will give the customer the option to replace the best guess or wait until it breaks . This is reality!
I have more confidence in your guesses' than I have in other people's opinions. Great job on the wheel speed senor.
I'm glad you made this video. This kind of educated guess on a less expensive and fairly easy to get to part is totally appropriate.
I know years ago when I first started following you, Eric, your motto was, "test, don't guess." However, I've seen you from time to time not able to duplicate an issue the customer describes and if the parts aren't expensive you go ahead with your hypothesis. I would say all of your guesses are based on years of experience and likely you have seen symptoms before. GREAT VIDEO!
Of course it's okay. Got me through 10 years of marriage.
😂😂😂😂
How about 50+ !!
I've been at it nearly 50 years. I was awash in stats etc. in Engineering School, but believe you me, It doesn't work with a spouse. They have no interest in Math, you are wrong and that's the end of the matter.
"honey, does this dress make my ankles look thin?" Me.. "I guess"
Sometimes, it's the only way.
It's always great to see the beautiful smile of Mrs O
It says that it's genuine GM... I love it! Eric your content is great!
Eric, since you're parts cannon shy I wish you were in my hood to guess what's wrong with my car and pickup! An educated guess by you is worth way more than 3 hours with a scanner! Great video!
Knowledge made your guess. Nothing wrong with it. Don't apologize for it.I've watched this channel for years .you are truly knowledgeable it your testing and troubleshooting. Great video Eric as always the best from SMA!
Hello Erick & Mrs O. Experience is a wonderful teacher. Customer satisfaction is primary in running a successful busisness. When both are used to improve the issue resolution the customer benefits. This case a very good example. Keep the interesting & informative videos coming. Good job.
Dear Eric and Vanessa: A wonderful video, a true measure of mechanical genius. Thanks ever so much. Greetings from the warm Caribbean !
There's a world of difference in approach between using experience and common sense instead of guesswork, hope and parts cannon. Depends if you are happy to give your customer a huge bill and probably never see them again for any other work.
Eric, I love the new improved way you’ve shown us how to lose a 10mm socket!! I would drop that bad boy sooooo fast. Thank you, though seriously, we all enjoy your craft and I learn so much from you! McCoy is truly blessed to have you for his Yoda!!
You’re an honest broker for the customer.
Glad to see Mrs.O and you have a great video.
I don't have much as far as testing equipment so usually I start guessing and try to use what I have to test the theory.
Informed decision-making comes from a long tradition of guessing and then blaming others for inadequate results. you the man, Eric..you the man
Glad to see a youngster learning for Eric..Congratulations Bones, You are learning from the master
Eric. Please don't be so apologetic. You are simply the best...hands down. Kind Regards. Craig. BTW so you have psoriatic arthritis and it affects your nails. No big deal
Sometimes a guess is the best repair as you have shown. What great content on diagnosing
Local GM dealer service dept tech would have guessed that it at least needed a new ABSModule and Hydraulic control unit ):
And a harness for good measure😂
@@mph5896and add a ecm as well with a grand total of $5,995 out the door for the repair 💁♂️😉😅🤣😂
LOL - "I didn't watch Star Wars" - made me LOL! STAR TREK!!!! Dammit Jim!!!! Hahaha.....He'll fit right in!!!!
TS 6:21 " I see said the Blind Man as he picked up his Hammer and Saw" lol thats what i have been told. Any one else heard that last part of the phrase?
I owned a marine repair shop for years. A typical no spark issue was usually a failed power pac (brain box) capacitors cooked open.
So I gave the customer the option of “my 25$ hunch” or the 100$ system analysis. 90% of the time it was a cooked pac.
There's guessing and there's seasoned, experienced intuition, which you have passed along to us...and we thank you!!!! NJ. I trust all of you with my only child.
"star wars, I don't know, star trek, one of the two".
That's some hard trolling there Mr.O.😂
😉
Worth at least 25-50 comments!
As always, thank you for this video. Also, as many years as I've been in this industry, I see a teachable moment along with a training point.
Also, no matter how much experience I may have. Every video I've watched has taught me something. Young Sir having you as a trainer and guide to this industry. He will make an amazing technician!
You’re freaking me out I’ve never seen you do that granted I haven’t been watching forever and you did have a pretty strong argument
As a home meddler, I mean mechanic, I have enough knowledge to narrow it down pretty close, but I don't have a lot of knowledge when it comes to testing (or a decent scanner). That's why I appreciate you, SMA. Good teacher.
I think its funny that while trying to show a situation where a guess might work out better than the standard diagnostic process, you once again proved that the standard diagnostic process is the better direction. Even if it wasn't intended to work out that way.
"Yeah we are just gonna wing a sensor into this thing and see if that fixes it - oh look, the connector is full of water and green crusties.."
That said, you have a point where in cases where an issue is not repeatable or persistent and experience says "it is very likely this part which isn't very expensive - shall we give it a try and see?" an educated guess has a place. Thanks for the video!
Your educated guess based on experience is invaluable, thanks for being awesome!
I make sure and hit the "like" button once Mrs. O shows up. That hard working girl deserves some of the credit.
Especially since the problem was intermittent, and your experience of seeing these sensors fail in the past, this was a perfect educated guess Eric. Good idea on covering the whole connection with tape to prevent this from happening again.
Hi Eric, McCoy and the lovely Mrs.O., Anybody that watches your channel would trust your (Guess) over some others Diagnosis! You have a loyal following Eric ,forget a bout it!!!
At this point it's all about experience.
Unbelievably awesome tips! I love the idea of wrapping electrical tape around a socket to get into small spaces. Also, I had no idea that the part of the crimper was for non-insulated connectors. Great info, as always!
You use intuition guided by past experience. Great job. ❤❤
I learn more from this channel than any other I watch. TY!
We all need more shops like yours
Yes... In my profession certain problems come across a lot more than others and usually it's the same fix... so an educated guess has a high chance of success and it's saves everybody time and/or money. In this case for example... that sensor costs maybe 50 bucks when an hour of your time diagnosing it will probably cost double that.
The secret of flate rate is, guess your best and charge 1 hour of diagnosis.
It is not a guess when backed up with years of experience. Great to See Mrs. O again. Great job.
The "educated guess" from experience is completely different from the "wag" aka "wild assed guess" and is an important part of every "good" mechanic's tool kit. Well done video and explanation.
Another amazing video by RUclips's Best Mechanic/Technician!! Thanks for sharing, great job as always!!
When you’ve done the same job with the same problem over and over on multiple different cars and the same repairs fixes it then it’s not guessing, it’s experience. At 67 years old, 50 as a auto tech, I wish I could be that young man working with you. I hope he realizes how lucky he is to have you as a mentor.
For a mini roll I use an 11mm, at least it sees the outside of the toolbox every now and then.
If you drop the 11mm inside the car wormhole, you havent lost your most popular size socket. Is there such a beast as 11mm?😮 yes!! My set has one..i had to walk outside and look
11mm is close enough to 7/16ths that I use mine often.
I was happy to find out where the connection was!
Eric, car maintenance is always an " educated guess" but most of the time you feel much more confident after some testing that your guess is correct. Kind of like taking an open book test, just because you have the book in front of you doesn't mean you looked up the correct answer. IE: Car won't start and the battery tests at 9vdc and you determine at least one bad cell, your "guess" is you have a bad battery. But after replacing the batter the car still will not start, only to find the starter is weak.
As a car owner I would feel much more confident that Eric is making his "best guess" than if I asked the 15 year old down the street what he thought about the issue.
Great channel Eric. I've learned so much from watching your channel and the skills I've gained from that knowledge is not restricted to automobiles. They can be transferred to other life topics as well.
Your years of experience makes this "guess" an educated guess. That is miles different than using a parts cannon after using an ODB2 scanner. As a guy about the same age as you I have a lot of respect for the application of your skillset. I'm in the IT industry but it works the same for me. Great video!
I had a 2015 Lexus in here not long ago with a wheel speed sensor wire that was broken. The harness was built onto the sensor, otherwise it was just a plain old wheel speed sensor. It was just under $500 with shipping. Aftermarket. o.0 Needless to say, I took a hint from Ivan's book and soldered the wires on the old one.
Agree 100%, and you still are the best.. Enjoy the videos, especially when you have Mrs. O in the script.
McCoy was a crusty ship’s doctor who cared very much about his patients. Being called McCoy is a compliment.
Your educated guesstimate was based on years and years of experience. It’s something you learn how to do and trust when you spend many years in the dealership. No harm no foul. Again you were right on the money.
Years ago in Canada I took my 2000 Malibu to Midas Muffler who charged $100 to scan for the source of an ABS dash light. They told me 3 sensors were bad ! Internet research prior indicated most GM vehicles, and mine in particular, had sensors embedded in the wheel bearings so that would have been a costly repair. Research also showed that the problem point was usually the drivers side front ABS wiring harness ......not the sensor itself.
I told Midas to replace the harness on that wheel and the ABS warning light then disappeared and I had no issues over the remaining 5 years I owned the car. Either the scan tech was dishonest or an idiot. I never went back there for any kind of work after this attempted ripoff. Honest people like you Eric are keepers ! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻🔧
I don't have all the fancy scan tools.. so just about everything for me is an educated guess. 99% of the time throw a part at it and it's fixed. But if not sure.. I always watch your videos and start with the cheapest solution first.
I try to do the same thing you were mentioning at the end of the video. Be up front with the customer and tell them that the issue cant be duplicated at the moment and I think that X could fix it but because I can't prove it I can't recommend it. I wish there were more people like this in the industry but unfortunately shops or even mobile "mechanics" are all too eager to just take the payday and continue about their day. I obviously do all my own work for that reason and bc im not going to pay somebody else labor to do my job but that kind of dishonesty is part of the reason I got into being a mechanic. Appreciate your video's and I watch all of them even the simple stuff like brake jobs and wheel bearings because I like what you do.
Thank you for pointing out the correct way to crimp. I have a Knapheide KUV work van and they used the non-insulated side to crimp a heat shrink connector. It only lasted about 6 months before it corroded and I lost my LED cargo lights. You could see where it pierced the connector and the corrosion started. I enjoy your channel. I learn a lot from you.
And to add to your explainatIon, your customers are paying for your EXPERIENCE which allows you to take very educated "guesses", which in this case really isn't a guess. It is years of hand on experience combined with hard data in the form of the scan performed which lead you directly to the problem. Don't apologize for professionalism. You are a master knuckle buster!
Eric great video as always you are a honest and great mechanic that’s why I love this channel and I’ve been a viewer for a very long time since the beginning is that young man your son he will learn a lot from you
Explanation very good. You saved the customer three times less money.
Eric that may of been a guess but it was an educated guess with years of experience behind it, big difference. Love your videos, I've learned so much from watching and listening to you. God bless you and your family.
Under the conditions that you noted, taking an EDUCATED guess is just fine. Well done.
Makes perfect sense. The DTC indicated a problem with the left front ABS. The most likely part to fail there is the sensor. Or if your customer wants, you can drive it around for 8 hours, charge 8 hours labor for that, find out without a doubt that it is the ABS sensor and then still pay for the sensor and the labor to install it. Diagnostic time isn't free.
An educated guess, like you did, is not what we generally call guesswork. Experience plays an important role in that decision.
Scotty approved! Great job Eric O! I’d take your guess more than anyone else’s facts! Experience pays!
I have a tip I used to share among my fellow technicians is to order some Plasti-Dip spray and coat the connectors and seal them right up. It may not be better protection than liquid black tape but it's easily sprayed on and easier to peel off for repairs and you can get it in a variety of colors. I guess it would be similar to the newer Flex Seal spray they have nowadays that only comes in black or maybe white now too as some of their other stuff I know comes in white. Anyways, you can pick a color that blends well with your project or maybe even contrasts it to easily locate in the future. Really great for coating connections on trailers. Any time I'm wiring a trailer I automatically put in GM Weatherpacks at each tailight and coat them to prevent hassles in future lamp replacements.
I would listen to your guesses any day of the week, Trust in a great technician always wins, Thanks great video..
Genius! That is why you could move forward down the path to a proper repair. Great video
Makes sense too me... Just wish you were closer...! Good job Eric..Kudos
Always nice to see Mrs.O.
What a parts changer!.. 🤣 Paul would be proud
We all do it
Sometimes it’s the more logical approach given the symptom & how easy we can duplicate the customers concern
I used to have a MECHANIC just like you that lived next door to me. Literally.😊
Now I pay.😢😢😢
Awesome video 👏👏👏🫶
The only thing he might have said was to call me over when the light stays on, but don't shut it off.
I agree Eric. These intermittent issues are the worst. See my comment regarding my grand-daughter's 2017 Buick Encore. A steelership would never have found the cause, I'm sure. You always impress me with your ability to trace down electrical problems, and, your educated guess at times when required.
Your guesses are better than many others troubleshooting.
When Eric fires the Parts Canton he's a sniper!👍👍🇨🇦
Nice place for the connector. Good thing it showed on service data.
I been working on machines for forty years and I agree on taking a guess especially on "known" concerns. I also agree on letting the client know what is going on befor the guess so they have a complete understanding. As far as wiring concerns especially on data circuits I try my best to solder them and heat strink. I also use a dab of RTV or hot glue for extra protection. Love your channel for sure.
It’s not an everyday thing, so I trust your guess. I believe it’s better to test and find out what’s wrong, but in this case your experience pays off. So guess and trust your gut. Love all your videos and wish you were here in Iowa.