I think the hint by the NHTSA that they would defer to manufacturers of self-driving vehicles to self-regulate is a major factor in the current run-up.
18:00 Re: FSD Take Rates. From what I’m hearing, even with “free” trials to new buyers, plus showroom demos, general technophobia is still much too great to engender anything but novelty adoption. One year out? Near 100%!
Merry Christmas Herbert and Randy…the stock rise is the perfect storm of a perception shift to what Tesla will become sooner than most people know or think. A lot of growth drivers in the pot brewing….klp
Tesla could also get into advertisement, like hotels, restaurants, along the way. I would not mind getting prompted to stop at a nice place to have a cup of coffee, a piece of pie, or whatever.
when there's enough robots mining resources from the ground , purifying mined items, building parts, DIAGNOSING EACH OTHER AND FIXING EACH OTHER, serving us with whatever we need, may end up being Kingdom of Heaven on Earth.
Talking of driving to NYC - Black Tesla showed exactly that on a video today. Two takeovers on the drive in busy traffic on all sorts of roads (and a tunnel).
If it costs them $20k then what will they sell them for? $40? $60? Either way they are not gonna rent them for $60 if someone could buy them at $60. Where are you getting these numbers?
Comment of the Year!!!! My comment is that UBER in it's current form is a Conglomerator of Cars in different brands to deliver mobility to all. JUBER will be UBER that conglomerates owners of Bipedal Robots (Tesla/Atlas) Robots to be rehired for a Spot Job for employers. It's the Jobs Uber. Duuuuuuude. I have comment of the year!!!
Thanks for the forecast! I need some advice: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
@@AdryanaAlef Yeah, I’m also closing in on retirement, and I have benefitted much from using a financial advisor. I didn’t start early, so I knew the compound interest of index fund investing would not work for me. Funny how I pulled in more profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years.
@@VeziSalsa I've shuffled through investment coaches; they can positively impact an individual's portfolio. But do your due diligence to find a coach with grit that withstood the 2008 crash. MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY was better and smarter than all the advisors I have ever worked with. I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
What’s nuts is Optimus will be able to build Optimus..which can be on an infinite loop of the amount of Optimus you can build. Scaling is going to be nuts. It’s the first product that can build itself.
Funny that Herbert said ‘you were Uber Bullish..’ instead of Tesla bullish. Randy didn’t notice and the next five minutes is essentially praising uber when you both meant Tesla. That might confuse people that don’t regularly watch.
Thanks, Herbert! I haven’t heard any channel speak about Elon’s need to compensate his employees with reasonable priced stock. In the past, a split has occurred around $500 per share. Are we due for a split?
@@trina2100 LOL I know what his intention is. The stock pulled back and rallied after 3 days. That does NOT work with a stock that is this strong. Tell him to post his trades. Let's see how that plays out.
@ well I’m unfortunately in the same boat. I sold at PATH and shoulda bought back in at $418 last week. Not looking good for me lol. Ima learn my lesson one day.
@@trina2100 This is my exact point. These guys know a lot about TESLA. They don't know shit about the stock market. And they hide behind the BS that they say it's not financial advice. But people are listening to this crap.
Randy is a pure optimist. Everything he says will be true. Just add 5 years to his estimates. I don’t see FSD truly viable until HW5. The car must be able to learn” local knowledge. Right now it drives as if you were the first time through an area. No learning. All learning is done on the general level at the main computers. I can’t teach my car to back into my garage and don’t see that happening anytime soon.
I disagree. Local knowledge is such an obvious move. When Tesla hasn't done it yet, I'd think it's either because they want to make sure it works flawlessly in new environments first, or they simply don't have the capacity yet.
The problem is there is no 22:30 feature roadmap published to determine feature completion. For example is it necessary to include the ability to speak in the vehicle and provide instructions on where to drop you off. What about people who don’t speak and need to just pointing. Are these deal breakers to be able to deploy a service without a driver. When FSD started being sold last decade Robo Taxi was never a consideration. FSD is a subset Robo Taxi requirements.
Herbert and Randy: I believe you need to start, including in your conversations that the robots will be building more robots. In other words, the machine that builds the machine. This could be endless upscale for production of robots. Love this show.
Due to all of the preliminary training requirements which would far exceed that of human training, their value for immediate use is hindered, imo 60k usd is 50% too high.
I would love to see a successful Starship landing on the Moon, with a dozen or more Optimi walking onto the elevator and then down, down, down to the surface where they spread out to begin working at many different tasks guided by human remote operators back on Earth. HUGE opportunities in this for testing new equipment from hammers to Moonsuits without risking a human. Equally huge opportunities for proof of concept regolith gathering, refining and making endless varieties of new equipment in situ. All sorts of shelters, cobblestone paths and roads as well as safer landing pads for the humans' future landings. SO. MUCH. TO. DO. Randy, we will need infinite supplies of drool rags just for Larry, you and me, much less the rest of the world, and the rest of the world will be watching all of it. Endless 24x7 marketing of Opimus. Wouldn't THAT be a great Christmas 2025 present to the world!!!
Define intervention. I’ve driven from Pensacola to downtown New Orleans and back a couple times with no “safety” interventions with 12.5.4. I’ve “Intervened” by pressing the pedal due to slow speed, but it wasn’t a safety issue.
I love Randy, he is an interesting character. However, he is always too early on his valuation and product predictions. Optimus is a big unknown but my valuation would be around $5000 for 2030. This is mostly from FSD, RoboTaxi, and Optimus. The other businesses are big (very important to society) but in comparison they barely move the valuation needle. Note my valuation forecast is more than 10X from where it’s today. After 2030 Teslas AI will jump to other products and anyone’s guess is good from there!
Wait a minute, gentlemen. Your numbers and projections may be accurate, but you've overlooked a critical external factor. Every Optimus delivered and put into a factory displaces a worker whose income supported himself/herself and their family. Every autonomous Semi delivered, puts a trucker on the street. How long before the resistance and sabotage begins? No one is addressing the social and cultural impact of this displacement. For the first time in human history, we have a viable path for eliminating the need for most human labor. People identify themselves by the career they follow. What happens when they have no careers? Do you expect no opposition by those who are displaced? Has anyone seriously tried to develop a path and mechanism to completely change society? I've seen nothing in this regard. Therefore, my conclusion is this will only continue until significant numbers of displaced workers begin to resist the changes imposed. Unless preparations are made to facilitate the change, Tesla becoming CHOAM will hit an obstacle it cannot surmount. We need a transition plan. NOW
With every single drop of stock ive been accumulating with money I would spent on smokes, starbucks, lottery tickets, dust collectors, dunkin donuts, cruise vacations. I can hardly wait for robotaxi delivering my optimus. Taxi drives up and door opens and out walks optimus. Imagine all that packing styrofoam and cardboard and wood NO LONGER NEEDED! First things 3TLV would do is cook us meal and clean the house. I would name my Optimus (3TLV) which would stand for three trillion, low voltage. Three trillion would be what Tesla's worth and LV is low voltage . My Tesla Model Y"s name is 3THV 3 trillion and HV High Voltage.
Tesla Cortex Training Computer System has already improved FSD to the point that FSD may already be safer than any human driver. My prediction: By the end of 2025 Tesla stock price will have moved dramatically higher. $1,000 is possible!
I don't know what the hell he's talking about renting the bot for $60,000 a year. Nobody would pay that. You can hire a minimum wage employee for a third of that price and even with benefits it would be half. And there's no training or maintenance or anything. The price is 20,000. That's what Elon has talked about. That $20,000 price would come with some kind of software contract that would enhance it a bit, but if you're only looking to sell a couple of them, then by all means charge $60,000. You'll get the Hollywood a-listers and that's about it. It will be as obsolete as the model x. If you think you're going to sell billions at that price your nuts. If you price them at $20,000 you will probably sell a billion of them at least and maybe more as they become more efficient at basic tasks.
It's probably not too unreasonable for the first million or so. Later, 10k/y will be a great deal for almost any profitable work. That's probably a billion bots. That's 10T revenue/year. I believe we'll have useful autonomous bots in the near future, and that dictates insane profits for the industry winner. That's why my money's in Tesla. Granted, Elon's comments about selling them is puzzling. I can't see why they'd leave that much money on the table. I expect a subscription for the AI part.
Thumbs down on your videos with Randy Kirk. If he can promise not to ever bring up politics, especially when it doesn't contribute to content, I'll begin watching him again.
It isn't his fault that the left tends towards corruption - politics started it. They shouldn't have been involved: Not the right, not the left, not god. Delaware is not a civilized state!
Some of these people are so delusional. Just because you had runup now doesn’t mean lunatic fantasies like 20m vehicles/year and 10 million bots/year. Also btw FSD is great ADAS and nothing more. There is no robotaxi.
@@VasuJaganath The glass is half full, but with hemlock tea. Exponential improvement occurring under your nose, but because it is happening in slow motion you and many other people cannot see it. This will be your regret. It will be a phase change in transportation.
2 weeks later and Elon hits Randy’s predictions on bot.
I think the hint by the NHTSA that they would defer to manufacturers of self-driving vehicles to self-regulate is a major factor in the current run-up.
18:00 Re: FSD Take Rates. From what I’m hearing, even with “free” trials to new buyers, plus showroom demos, general technophobia is still much too great to engender anything but novelty adoption. One year out? Near 100%!
Merry Christmas Herbert and Randy…the stock rise is the perfect storm of a perception shift to what Tesla will become sooner than most people know or think. A lot of growth drivers in the pot brewing….klp
Robots making robots
Happy Holidays to $all 🎉
Tesla could also get into advertisement, like hotels, restaurants, along the way. I would not mind getting prompted to stop at a nice place to have a cup of coffee, a piece of pie, or whatever.
An entire factory wing of Optimus building Optimus would be the one for me. Now that's a reveal!
when there's enough robots mining resources from the ground , purifying mined items, building parts, DIAGNOSING EACH OTHER AND FIXING EACH OTHER, serving us with whatever we need, may end up being Kingdom of Heaven on Earth.
Ya’ll are both great and i love your optimism.😊❤❤
“The used cars will be gone” HW3 included?
We were told by Elon that all hw3 vehicles will be upgraded for free if hw3 can’t do FSD.
@@AKJammer1 Why would you believe that?
So holding my 4005 shares until 2030 is a good idea?
Show off 😅
Congrats
no,- will become too rich and that will make you crazy. Sell your shares before for your own sake!!
Better let me hold some of those for you 😅
Oh brother. 🙄
If you're under 60 years old.
What a lovely Christmas bonus on Dec 24!
great to see this channel sub growth. Kudos to Herbert and guests ☮️❤️🎶
Talking of driving to NYC - Black Tesla showed exactly that on a video today. Two takeovers on the drive in busy traffic on all sorts of roads (and a tunnel).
Most international FSD buyers do not have a workable FSD and wont get for a while- therefore, Tesla cant bank the income from them yet.
If it costs them $20k then what will they sell them for? $40? $60? Either way they are not gonna rent them for $60 if someone could buy them at $60. Where are you getting these numbers?
4000$ a share in 2030 i ll be more than happy
Comment of the Year!!!!
My comment is that UBER in it's current form is a Conglomerator of Cars in different brands to deliver mobility to all.
JUBER will be UBER that conglomerates owners of Bipedal Robots (Tesla/Atlas) Robots to be rehired for a Spot Job for employers. It's the Jobs Uber.
Duuuuuuude. I have comment of the year!!!
Thanks for the forecast! I need some advice: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
@@AdryanaAlef Yeah, I’m also closing in on retirement, and I have benefitted much from using a financial advisor. I didn’t start early, so I knew the compound interest of index fund investing would not work for me. Funny how I pulled in more profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years.
@@SimretBielke Please can you leave the information of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need of one.
@@VeziSalsa I've shuffled through investment coaches; they can positively impact an individual's portfolio. But do your due diligence to find a coach with grit that withstood the 2008 crash. MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY was better and smarter than all the advisors I have ever worked with. I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
@@SimretBielke Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible.
Merry Christmas gentlemen
What’s nuts is Optimus will be able to build Optimus..which can be on an infinite loop of the amount of Optimus you can build. Scaling is going to be nuts. It’s the first product that can build itself.
Optimus - Where are these built? If we're talking about large numbers of robots where is the production line and it's capacity?
Funny that Herbert said ‘you were Uber Bullish..’ instead of Tesla bullish. Randy didn’t notice and the next five minutes is essentially praising uber when you both meant Tesla. That might confuse people that don’t regularly watch.
Look up the definition uber
Thanks, Herbert! I haven’t heard any channel speak about Elon’s need to compensate his employees with reasonable priced stock. In the past, a split has occurred around $500 per share. Are we due for a split?
By 2030 I think tsla share price will be around $20 000 per share
You had a 10,000 stock price and sold at 460? Please do tell.
Expecting it to go back down so he books these profits now and buy back in.
@@trina2100 LOL I know what his intention is. The stock pulled back and rallied after 3 days. That does NOT work with a stock that is this strong. Tell him to post his trades. Let's see how that plays out.
@ well I’m unfortunately in the same boat. I sold at PATH and shoulda bought back in at $418 last week. Not looking good for me lol. Ima learn my lesson one day.
@@trina2100 This is my exact point. These guys know a lot about TESLA. They don't know shit about the stock market. And they hide behind the BS that they say it's not financial advice. But people are listening to this crap.
@ yeah I decided my next entry I’m just gonna hold. Maybe buy shares here and there to trade once I establish my core position.
RANDY💪❤
I want Elon talking to me in voice AI in my bot and Tesla!
Randy is a pure optimist. Everything he says will be true. Just add 5 years to his estimates. I don’t see FSD truly viable until HW5. The car must be able to learn” local knowledge. Right now it drives as if you were the first time through an area. No learning. All learning is done on the general level at the main computers. I can’t teach my car to back into my garage and don’t see that happening anytime soon.
Let’s see who’s right
I disagree. Local knowledge is such an obvious move. When Tesla hasn't done it yet, I'd think it's either because they want to make sure it works flawlessly in new environments first, or they simply don't have the capacity yet.
Herbert is Amazing 🎉
There needs to be a new acronym for FSD in Optimus, because we're saying the cars have FSD but we're not saying what it is in Optimus.
Call it cranium
No need for a name in Optimus. Unlike the car, the robot will be useless without. Just call it the OS or something.
We love Randy!
The problem is there is no 22:30 feature roadmap published to determine feature completion. For example is it necessary to include the ability to speak in the vehicle and provide instructions on where to drop you off. What about people who don’t speak and need to just pointing. Are these deal breakers to be able to deploy a service without a driver.
When FSD started being sold last decade Robo Taxi was never a consideration. FSD is a subset Robo Taxi requirements.
I can off the top of my head see at least two solutions to your problem. You can too, if you engage your brain for a minute.
The alpha is amazing.
If a factory full of Optimus bots are working 24hrs a day building Optimus bots the sky is the limit for Tesla!
Herbert and Randy: I believe you need to start, including in your conversations that the robots will be building more robots. In other words, the machine that builds the machine.
This could be endless upscale for production of robots.
Love this show.
Happy Holi guys 😊😅
Bots in space will absorb alot of specialized manufacturing capability
Herbert looking sharp in this video, nice haircut!
How does this channel have less than 100k followers!!!!!????
FSD profit recognition is probably limited to Left Hand Drive markets, the RHD market effectively only has Enhanced Autopilot.
If you want to see how FSD operates, have a look at the "Savage Junkie 96" video recorded in Manhattan NYC. Absolutely awesome.
Great discussion.
Yes Keith! I’ve got similar and will DCA A lot before then! You Will be very happy if you at least keep them! Absolutely
Due to all of the preliminary training requirements which would far exceed that of human training, their value for immediate use is hindered, imo 60k usd is 50% too high.
you would train one per isolated task, so equivalent to cloning humans with intact knowledge and motor-nerve development
Super! 😅👏👏👏
I'm sitting here watching the precursor to Star Trek. This day and age really is fascinating. Thanks to Elon and team.
Voice and Facial Recognition should already be done.
😊
We may have optimism about Optimist, but sales may disappoint us just as car sales are doing today.
I wouldn’t trust a guy with that kind of shirt on
😅
Your touchiness can get in the way of wisdom.
I would love to see a successful Starship landing on the Moon, with a dozen or more Optimi walking onto the elevator and then down, down, down to the surface where they spread out to begin working at many different tasks guided by human remote operators back on Earth. HUGE opportunities in this for testing new equipment from hammers to Moonsuits without risking a human. Equally huge opportunities for proof of concept regolith gathering, refining and making endless varieties of new equipment in situ. All sorts of shelters, cobblestone paths and roads as well as safer landing pads for the humans' future landings. SO. MUCH. TO. DO. Randy, we will need infinite supplies of drool rags just for Larry, you and me, much less the rest of the world, and the rest of the world will be watching all of it. Endless 24x7 marketing of Opimus. Wouldn't THAT be a great Christmas 2025 present to the world!!!
Sorry, but people that say they have ZERO interventions on V12 instantly lose all credibility with me…
Define intervention. I’ve driven from Pensacola to downtown New Orleans and back a couple times with no “safety” interventions with 12.5.4. I’ve “Intervened” by pressing the pedal due to slow speed, but it wasn’t a safety issue.
I love Randy, he is an interesting character. However, he is always too early on his valuation and product predictions. Optimus is a big unknown but my valuation would be around $5000 for 2030. This is mostly from FSD, RoboTaxi, and Optimus. The other businesses are big (very important to society) but in comparison they barely move the valuation needle.
Note my valuation forecast is more than 10X from where it’s today.
After 2030 Teslas AI will jump to other products and anyone’s guess is good from there!
When Tesla takes the liability? Most likely that will be a little down the line.
Not sure about that. They will have the data to know when SD is safer. Also look at the growth of the insurance division. Might surprise some people
JHC, this is FOS.
I think it will happen earlier
My math says one thousand stock price by inauguration in Jan. LOL, you are bears, not Uber bull and a bull😂
Wait a minute, gentlemen. Your numbers and projections may be accurate, but you've overlooked a critical external factor.
Every Optimus delivered and put into a factory displaces a worker whose income supported himself/herself and their family. Every autonomous Semi delivered, puts a trucker on the street. How long before the resistance and sabotage begins?
No one is addressing the social and cultural impact of this displacement.
For the first time in human history, we have a viable path for eliminating the need for most human labor. People identify themselves by the career they follow. What happens when they have no careers?
Do you expect no opposition by those who are displaced?
Has anyone seriously tried to develop a path and mechanism to completely change society? I've seen nothing in this regard.
Therefore, my conclusion is this will only continue until significant numbers of displaced workers begin to resist the changes imposed.
Unless preparations are made to facilitate the change, Tesla becoming CHOAM will hit an obstacle it cannot surmount.
We need a transition plan. NOW
10K 2030 is 85% year over year SP growth? 😮
I expect 40'ish % growth. But will gladly accept 85% 😂❤
This guy is full of stuff you find in Depends.
No data to back his BS.
With every single drop of stock ive been accumulating with money I would spent on smokes, starbucks, lottery tickets, dust collectors, dunkin donuts, cruise vacations. I can hardly wait for robotaxi delivering my optimus. Taxi drives up and door opens and out walks optimus. Imagine all that packing styrofoam and cardboard and wood NO LONGER NEEDED! First things 3TLV would do is cook us meal and clean the house. I would name my Optimus (3TLV) which would stand for three trillion, low voltage. Three trillion would be what Tesla's worth and LV is low voltage . My Tesla Model Y"s name is 3THV 3 trillion and HV High Voltage.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻💫
Tesla Cortex Training Computer System has already improved FSD to the point that FSD may already be safer than any human driver.
My prediction: By the end of 2025 Tesla stock price will have moved dramatically higher. $1,000 is possible!
or higher with Optimus
woooooooooooooo
I don't know what the hell he's talking about renting the bot for $60,000 a year. Nobody would pay that. You can hire a minimum wage employee for a third of that price and even with benefits it would be half. And there's no training or maintenance or anything. The price is 20,000. That's what Elon has talked about. That $20,000 price would come with some kind of software contract that would enhance it a bit, but if you're only looking to sell a couple of them, then by all means charge $60,000. You'll get the Hollywood a-listers and that's about it. It will be as obsolete as the model x. If you think you're going to sell billions at that price your nuts. If you price them at $20,000 you will probably sell a billion of them at least and maybe more as they become more efficient at basic tasks.
It is possible the bot could work 24 hours a day. 7 days a week. No holidays.
It's probably not too unreasonable for the first million or so. Later, 10k/y will be a great deal for almost any profitable work. That's probably a billion bots. That's 10T revenue/year. I believe we'll have useful autonomous bots in the near future, and that dictates insane profits for the industry winner. That's why my money's in Tesla. Granted, Elon's comments about selling them is puzzling. I can't see why they'd leave that much money on the table. I expect a subscription for the AI part.
How cool would it be to demonstrate Optimus' capabilities by climbing Mt. Everest. 😮
Thumbs down on your videos with Randy Kirk. If he can promise not to ever bring up politics, especially when it doesn't contribute to content, I'll begin watching him again.
Politics totally affected it. Going from a White House that was opposing everything Elon compared to a pro whitehouse
Your touchiness can get in the way of wisdom.
Politics can't be separated from anything Elon, his companies, or his products.
Bye 😅
It isn't his fault that the left tends towards corruption - politics started it. They shouldn't have been involved: Not the right, not the left, not god. Delaware is not a civilized state!
10,000 per share = ~ 30T market cap.
The entire S&P 500 has a 50T Market cap.
Seems a little far fetched.
Some of these people are so delusional. Just because you had runup now doesn’t mean lunatic fantasies like 20m vehicles/year and 10 million bots/year. Also btw FSD is great ADAS and nothing more. There is no robotaxi.
Savage Junkie 96 driving through Manhattan. I'll say no more.
@@VasuJaganath The glass is half full, but with hemlock tea. Exponential improvement occurring under your nose, but because it is happening in slow motion you and many other people cannot see it. This will be your regret. It will be a phase change in transportation.
The chance is 0. Please be rationally bullish, not irrationally bullish, in order to maintain this channel's creditability.
The chance of what?
Why squinting so much?