How NOT To Choose Your Investments
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- Опубликовано: 3 окт 2024
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How NOT to Choose Your Investments | When Backtesting Becomes Misleading:
Back testing, or the process of using historical data to vet investing strategies, is one of the most useful tools in our financial researching toolbelt. But just like with any tool, there's a right way to use it and a wrong way to use it. This week we look at a few ways that back tests can generate misleading results.
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I throw darts at the WSJ stock listings. That’s how I pick. Is that wrong?
Another thing about P-Hacking is that academics are made or broken based on their ability to publish results, and publishers heavily prefer to publish the novel or new discovery. This means the incentive is to keep testing stuff until something weird is found, no matter if it makes no sense.
That type of environment can certainly incentivize P-Hacking, for sure! Thanks for sharing :)
I like this video, but I think the title is a little misleading. The content is actually *better* than the title indicates. It is some really good thinking about backcasting. A good follow up might be the issues of focusing on the worst case scenario.
Jake, thanks for the feedback! And I love the suggestion about taking a look at the potential issues of focusing only on the worst case scenario! In fact, I'm going to add that to my video to-do list right now as I think there's a lot to dig into with that topic :)
Definitely the worst type of backtesting is seeing a stock moon one day and going all in assuming it will continue to do so.
Worse than that is making a ponzi scheme out of it and spreading false information on the internet and harassing people who sell for any reason.
You know who you are.
Both good examples of misusing backtesting!