Idk if the villain was telling the truth a real pro would lie in that spot and say “yeah bro I had aces” to make the fish feel better and keep him in the game
what's sharp with calling 4!bet pfr here? You're either beat or you're not! Paying $1, 000 (330 bb) just to get opponent's hand info I found a little bit expensive.
@@pot_kivach160 Are you saying he should've folded KK to a 4-bet? Against an aggressive reg? He didn't call "for information". He called because he's usually going to have the best hand here.
Bart, great video as usual. One suggestion - the new background my look nice for people that like to see nice bookshelves, but it is distracting to me. I prefer a blank background where I can more clearly focus on the cards. Even better would be to shrink your face to a small square and you can show the entire hand history instead of just hand by hand. That way, people watching can take a break in case they get interrupted and they can come back to watch the video without going backwards to see the preflop action.
Idk if the villain was telling the truth a real pro would lie in that spot and say “yeah bro I had aces” to make the fish feel better and keep him in the game
We obviously didn’t talk about the hand in the moment we ended up playing another big pot against each other and talked about it later I doubt he was lying his first question to me was did I have the king of diamonds in my hand
@@joshsheppard21 You were the hero here? I think you made a very disciplined and correct fold. I don't think V has any bluffs here. He might get to the river with AdKd, but he's not going to triple-barrel as a bluff with that hand. As played, he's got AA or QQ, and KK is just toast.
We’re assuming that the villain is playing his cards and not the player. Hero is repping a one pair hand with his passive play. Is it not possible that villain turned a no pair or low pair into a bluff to fold out a queen or a better pocket pair? Also, what is Hero’s table image? Has he given the villain any reason to think that he will over-call or over-fold?
Could we make the case that AQ is a better river call here than KK? With AQ, V has 4 combos of AA/QQ for value and 12 combos of AK some of which he might bluff with. He only needs to decide to triple with AK 1/6 of the time to make it a profitable call. Whereas with KK there’s 9 combos of AA/QQ and only 8 combos of AK. Obviously this goes out the window if V value bets KK on the river but I’m not convinced many will.
The thing that's overlooked when we do the combo-counting is how the various combos get played. In position, V won't necessarily always 4B pre with AKo. V is probably only c-betting flop with AdKd and AcKc. AdKd might barrel turn, but AcKc probably won't. AdKd is probably not barreling the river, because what is he trying to fold out? AdKd becomes the worst hand for V to have on this runout. Hero might fold another AK, but hero probably isn't getting to the river with any other AK. AdKd is really the only AK combo that gets to the river on this board. When V has AdKd, hero is weighted towards 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 2 of AQs, and 6 of QQ. How many of those are folding here, without having the Ad or Kd?
I think min raise flop/small bet turn pretty nice. If they call/call, we check the river and they bet, we can find an easier fold. Their range much more defined in that line and far fewer bluff possibilities
I ran a similar spot sb vs HJ 4! And it looks like on river we mix about 50/50 agnostic of suit. I think "indifferent" is perfectly accurate. I might randomize by picking one of my cards to give the fish a fun show and keep table lively
I really don’t think he has aces . He is lying . Aces would never shove there. A 1/3 to 2/3 bet is understandable but not a shove . Because the hero can have all the slow playing sets on the board and he should be scared of that . If he is trying to extract value from Qx kind of hand he would bet smaller and be prepared to fold if hero shows strength with check raise .
@@joshsheppard21 Not for nothing, but knowing a lot of peeps play raise or fold in the SB, I might check back AA on the river. SB could have QQ, but also some sneaky straights with A2s/76s/65s. I don't love V's jam, because there aren't many hands SB can have that will 3B pre and call on the river.JJ/TT are going to fold. V is really just trying to get value from KK with no diamond.
@@1vailchris I think in live poker it’s still a jam It’s not alot of 4 betting going on in these game and he didn’t really know me much other than playing at the same table for an hour I would have jammed aces there as well so many love players fold button is broken when they have top pair lol
I would have played a different line more often than not, but in that spot on the river, I call. I'd feel my KK is almost face up by then, so villain knows I'm going to fold more than the required MDF, as I lose to AA, lose to QQ, and block AK. If he is sitting there with the other KK, he is free rolling to fold me off the chop, especially knowing I have Kd. If he has AK, he knows there is a 2/3 chance I have Kd if I have KK. Then if he thinks I fold KK with Kd even 50% of the time, he can bluff any 2 cards. The line taken gives you less info about where you're at, than what I would have done. I would have gone from 20 to 70 instead of 105 preflop, and would have minraised when he came back 225 instead of 300. Click to 380 or 400 representing AA, and fold if he shoves preflop or tries getting the money in later. Losing 210+550 on the flop and turn was unnecessary, if you take a line that shows where you're at. Those two streets alone are double the max I lose to AA in that hand. I only lose more if I get a read that is wrong, that he's representing AA without having it. I'm not convinced he had AA. While his question about whether hero had Kd might mean he was also smelling AA vs KK, he may have asked due to having another K in his hand, rather than due to having AA. He may have had AKs, AKo, KK, or even KQs, though the 300 argues against KQ of any sort. Whenever I call in a spot like that, it's a chop way more often than I expect. That one other combo of KK, being overplayed, but overplayed well. "You almost pushed me off the chop. Good hand, sir." Then I smack the table twice, and everyone at the table stops bluffing me and tries taking me to value town for the next few hours. I take that into account. Knowing where the pendulum has swung on your table image, is one of the most important factors in poker.
I liked the old background. Less distracting. Black and white was so simple and clean. The make-up is distracting too. Remember Bart, poker is 80-90% dudes.
10s is better to call the turn than KK. You want him to have AK, very few people 4 bet AQ so 1010 and KK are basically the same except KK blocks the bluffs we want him to have.
@@1vailchrisI mean you’re basically just hoping he’s tripling off with AK. I wouldn’t be tripling off with AK in V’s spot because every time I have in this scenario I get snapped by QJ 😂
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj Big difference between what I expect my opponent to have when I call and what we're hoping V will have if we call. The comment up top is that this is just a sigh call. Really? Why? This isn't a spot where V might have made an improbable inside straight on the river when hero flopped top set and slow-played it. That's a sigh call. Hero's just got KK in a spot where V could have AA, or top set, and occasionally will have a straight with A2s/76s/56s. Hero really isn't beating anything but a bluff here, in a spot where V really doesn't have any bluffs. V only gets to the river with AdKd, and he's not triple-barreling with that hand.
If you're going to fold an over pair to a queen high board, just fold to the 4 bet. Not sure how this run out could be any better for the hero. You showed weakness the whole way. You don't think a good player would seize on that and put you to the test on the river?
Hero's close the bottom of his range on the river. From the SB, he could be 3B'ing with hands like AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ/KQ as well as some combos that make straights, like A2s/76s/56s. KK/KQ are the absolute bottom of his range that gets to the river. What hands does V have that hero is beating, when V 4B's pre, then goes bet-bet-bet on this runout? Do you think V is jamming AQ/JJ/TT or AKo here?
Depends how good the villain is. If he’s good, this should be indifferent, or close to that. If he’s less good, thus imbalanced, then which way? From what he said of how the fellow was playing, sounds more likely it would be towards not bluffing enough. Also most players under bluff the river.
And most players under 4bet preflop, against a less balanced player we should fold KK 100% of the time on the river imo, against a balanced player mixing a call is reasonable
@@1vailchris That’s a good point, but also a good reason to be balanced. If you’re balanced, you’re at worse break even, but do better when your opponent deviates from optimal play. On the other hand, if you’re unbalanced, you open yourself up to the possibility of being destroyed.
@@ewallt I guess I disagree. In order for balance to have value, our opponent needs to be indifferent. When our opponent is going to call too often, we can't bluff as often, and need to be unbalanced. I think V actually is somewhat balanced here, because he's betting with AA, knowing hero could have QQ. He's going for thin value in a spot where he could be value-owning himself. There's really no need for V to continue barreling with AK if he'd be betting AA for value as well as QQ. Like, just think about what AK combos get 4B pre, then go bet-bet-bet. Only AdKd even gets to the river like this. But AdKd is probably giving up and checking back, because what is V trying to get hero to fold at that point? Without the Ad or Kd in his hand, hero can call with AA/KK/AQ, in addition to QQ. The way this was played, V doesn't really have any "bluffs", so betting AA or QQ is balanced.
@@1vailchris I was commenting on the theory, that is, the math. Being balanced, that is, playing gto, always has value, because the best anyone can do against you is break even. Any departure from the optimal leads to loss, the greater the deviation, the greater the loss. So if you could play gto (an impossibility for humans), you’d never lose (except because of variance), but you’d win less than someone else who played exploitively well against someone else who was unbalanced. In the point you made about bluffing less against someone who calls too much (I think that was ur example), the correct adjustment is not to bluff less, but not to bluff at all. That’s why being unbalanced can lead to being destroyed. For example, in this given hand, if the pro were balanced, hero would have to play mdf, to lose as little as possible (he’s always going to lose, because it’s a polarized range vs. a defending range), but he loses the minimum this way. If villain is not bluffing because he’s afraid hero won’t fold enough, he gives up a lot of value if he’s wrong, and the more he’s wrong (hero actually overfolds, or just plays balanced), the more he gives up. There’s a dynamic here that the more unbalanced your opponent is in the other direction than you guessing, the worse you get destroyed. The more you’re out of line in your guess, the more you’ll get destroyed. If the pro thought hero was calling too much and as a result bluffed a little less than optimal, and was wrong, he’d lose just a little. But if he went whole hog on his read, and didn’t bluff at all, he’d lose a lot. Otoh, if he’s correct on his read, and never bluffs, he’ll do relatively better, by however much he’s deviating, than someone who plays gto. The key point here is that if you guess wrong about how to exploit, you open yourself up to being exploited in a far greater way than what your exploit would have gained you vs. playing balanced. There’s not an even trade here. You’re risking more to gain the same amount, meaning your read must have a certain degree of probability (depends on the size of the bet, but definitely markedly above 50/50) of being correct to make up for the risk involved.
Has to be a fold, as painful as it is. Hero loses to AA/QQ, some slivers of A2s, and occasionally some overly-aggro 76s/65s. V is likely to check-back with AQ/A5, JJ/TT, and his missed diamond draws. Hard to find bluffs when V 4B's pre and goes bet-bet-bet against an unknown opponent playing lower stakes. If hero is never 5B'ing pre, then even AA becomes a marginal call.
I agree it's a fold with kings, because you're blocking AK and you're not blocking AA, or QQ. That makes AQ a better hand to call with than KK. But I don't know if AQ should call here either.
@@gabrielrockman Yeah, good point about the blockers. AQ would just be hoping to chop, at best, but also loses to KK. Even with AA, the way this was played, V could have QQ and some slivers of A2s. It's not a spot where I want to get stacks in and hope my over-pair is good.
@@1vailchris I don't think AQ would be hoping to chop. I don't think that the villain is turning AQ into a bluff on the river, or betting AQ for value on the river. I think calling with AQ is bluff catching, hoping to catch a hand like JJ, AK, diamonds, or some random suited connector that decided to do a 3 barrel bluff. I think AQ might be a call, especially since all of the AQ suited hands don't block the Ace high diamond draw bluffs, and since it leaves just one combo of QQ. But I'm on the fence about AQ being a call. KK is not a snap fold: it's more of a think about it for a minute, and then realize that it's definitely a fold type of hand. So you're definitely right in describing it as a painful fold.
@@gabrielrockman I dunno about AQ betting river. I can see checking back with AQ, but I can also see a pro betting thin for value. In that scenario, calling with AQ would be hoping to chop. I could see calling here with KhKs, but hero's specific combo of KdKc is just the worst KK, because it blocks V's AdKd and AcKc bluffs. At this stack depth, I think V could have 4B with A2s, and I wonder if V could have 4B with 76s/56s, so calling with any KK is dicey. The way this was played, it's hard for me to see calling with AQs. Even though we're unblocking V's diamond draws and reducing QQ to one combo, we're still losing to AA/KK, and potentially some straights, if V is ever 4B'ing pre with A2/76/65. I'm not sure V is going to be over-valuing JJ/TT or triple-barrel bluffing often enough after we 3B pre and call flop and turn.
Sia the Bot is only allowed to play in HCL because she is an anime character come to life. She’s a nit who never bluffs not a GTO robot despite the nickname. She’s not GTO and crush Live Poker teaches lots of exploitative plays…Why can’t he just admit it was a bad call against a nit? Granted she’s a good nit unlike Nitucci who randomly spews or makes terrible calls because his starting hand was good and he has entitlement tilt.
What's with the "grandparents summer home" background? 😂
Bart is in his summer house for the winter
😂😂
Bart looks cozy
Honestly it's pretty distracting. Much harder to see the overlay graphics.
@@kzkilla808still very easy imo
I like the fold with the King ♦️ Very few bluffs in his range at the river. It stunk of AA.
Agreed. Blocking diamond combos makes this a spot where you fold kings since you block too many bluffs
Idk if the villain was telling the truth a real pro would lie in that spot and say “yeah bro I had aces” to make the fish feel better and keep him in the game
This caller is one of the smarter players to call in for sure
Damn Bart, streaming from Martha Stewart’s living room now 😂😂😂
I understand trying something new, but don't love the new background. Distracting and makes the graphics harder to see.
This caller is pretty sharp, listening to his thought process.
Except for his pre-flop, that sizing is horrendous. Like what kind of action is he hoping to get? Because he sure as hell got it
@@ticenits1926 you think I should go small with a 3bet out of position ? Lol what size do you think is correct
what's sharp with calling 4!bet pfr here? You're either beat or you're not! Paying $1, 000 (330 bb) just to get opponent's hand info I found a little bit expensive.
@@ticenits1926 For OOP, his 3-bet sizing was pretty standard.
@@pot_kivach160 Are you saying he should've folded KK to a 4-bet? Against an aggressive reg? He didn't call "for information". He called because he's usually going to have the best hand here.
nice; you built shelving since Monday's call-ins!
Bart, great video as usual. One suggestion - the new background my look nice for people that like to see nice bookshelves, but it is distracting to me. I prefer a blank background where I can more clearly focus on the cards. Even better would be to shrink your face to a small square and you can show the entire hand history instead of just hand by hand. That way, people watching can take a break in case they get interrupted and they can come back to watch the video without going backwards to see the preflop action.
this is an excellent suggestion, please consider
Not a fan of the fake background. Its distracing for the graphics. Still love the hand breakdowns though, so I deal with it.
Idk if the villain was telling the truth a real pro would lie in that spot and say “yeah bro I had aces” to make the fish feel better and keep him in the game
We obviously didn’t talk about the hand in the moment we ended up playing another big pot against each other and talked about it later I doubt he was lying his first question to me was did I have the king of diamonds in my hand
@@joshsheppard21 You were the hero here? I think you made a very disciplined and correct fold. I don't think V has any bluffs here. He might get to the river with AdKd, but he's not going to triple-barrel as a bluff with that hand. As played, he's got AA or QQ, and KK is just toast.
@@1vailchris yes I am hero on the call and I agree spot is very underbliffed and I don’t beat value
@@joshsheppard21I really enjoyed this call, your thought process was great!
@@Chemissed-qc1bt thanks bro I thought it was an interesting spot
Dude got the "it's 2 o'clock somewhere" emergency Zoom meeting background lol
is this crush live poker or crush live rooming rooms?
haha congrats on 90,000 subs bart
it's very inviting to newbies!
We need to discuss this background...
It looks fake.
@@EllieBanks333 pretty sure it is.
He said he had aces. Classic.
So i ran a sim 😅 KK with diamond mixes call/fold 50%
Wow... Really tight spot
I find these calls so insightful. Thanks Bart + caller! Going to check out CLP.
Is there an argument for 5 betting with kk preflop because we are out of position to villain? I think I'd rather call the 4 bet when I'm in position.
what are you 5betting then to not be exploited by a thinking opponent?
I think we should explore a small 5bet pre with KK since it’s 300+bb deep. Or are we just never 5b there ?
Background is too bright for my taste.
One of those hands that is very intense when it's "live bullets flying", but really just a coin flip or gut instinct as far as a "correct" decision.
I love the greeting: "How's it goin'?" "How ya doin'?" Like, doesn't even respond, just throws the question back at Bart.
Are you a native English speaker? That is incredibly common.
@@pandascoutAs a 100% native English speaker the whole "How you doing? ... No, how are you?" is one of many reasons I hate small talk lol.
Where is the black velvet painting of "dogs playing poker"?
Pocket KK?? H burnt 350 BB without even seen the hands that beat him?
towards the end of the video i was like HE HAS ACES, FOLD UR HAND U SAVED A THOUSAND BUCKS. END OF STORY.what a genius i am.
Help from the chat ... Flatting here in the sb with KK is still a 100% no go??? Or could you make a case for it ?
We’re assuming that the villain is playing his cards and not the player. Hero is repping a one pair hand with his passive play. Is it not possible that villain turned a no pair or low pair into a bluff to fold out a queen or a better pocket pair?
Also, what is Hero’s table image? Has he given the villain any reason to think that he will over-call or over-fold?
Background.
Could we make the case that AQ is a better river call here than KK?
With AQ, V has 4 combos of AA/QQ for value and 12 combos of AK some of which he might bluff with. He only needs to decide to triple with AK 1/6 of the time to make it a profitable call.
Whereas with KK there’s 9 combos of AA/QQ and only 8 combos of AK.
Obviously this goes out the window if V value bets KK on the river but I’m not convinced many will.
I think that’s reasonable
The thing that's overlooked when we do the combo-counting is how the various combos get played. In position, V won't necessarily always 4B pre with AKo. V is probably only c-betting flop with AdKd and AcKc. AdKd might barrel turn, but AcKc probably won't. AdKd is probably not barreling the river, because what is he trying to fold out? AdKd becomes the worst hand for V to have on this runout. Hero might fold another AK, but hero probably isn't getting to the river with any other AK. AdKd is really the only AK combo that gets to the river on this board. When V has AdKd, hero is weighted towards 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 2 of AQs, and 6 of QQ. How many of those are folding here, without having the Ad or Kd?
Absolutely, I’m shocked this didn’t come up during the call
@@1vailchris great point that’s why I just felt like he had 0 bluffs that would play this way especially when I hold k of diamonds
@@1vailchris I feel like I know your yt tag are win a discord together or something ?
Is villain Rampage (Young, Asian, Boston, Splashy, Pro)?
Who knew Denzel Washington was also a poker player. . .
Background is too try hard
What? Is that english?
I think min raise flop/small bet turn pretty nice. If they call/call, we check the river and they bet, we can find an easier fold. Their range much more defined in that line and far fewer bluff possibilities
I ran a similar spot sb vs HJ 4! And it looks like on river we mix about 50/50 agnostic of suit. I think "indifferent" is perfectly accurate. I might randomize by picking one of my cards to give the fish a fun show and keep table lively
I really don’t think he has aces . He is lying . Aces would never shove there. A 1/3 to 2/3 bet is understandable but not a shove . Because the hero can have all the slow playing sets on the board and he should be scared of that . If he is trying to extract value from Qx kind of hand he would bet smaller and be prepared to fold if hero shows strength with check raise .
You realize it’s .5 spr the shove is half pot I’m not sure why you think axes wouldn’t shove
True I didn’t realize how much was the hero left behind on the river . But I still believe he won’t shove with aces .
@@rocky2324rocky any good player shoved there with aces idk why you think he wouldn’t
@@joshsheppard21 Not for nothing, but knowing a lot of peeps play raise or fold in the SB, I might check back AA on the river. SB could have QQ, but also some sneaky straights with A2s/76s/65s. I don't love V's jam, because there aren't many hands SB can have that will 3B pre and call on the river.JJ/TT are going to fold. V is really just trying to get value from KK with no diamond.
@@1vailchris I think in live poker it’s still a jam It’s not alot of 4 betting going on in these game and he didn’t really know me much other than playing at the same table for an hour I would have jammed aces there as well so many love players fold button is broken when they have top pair lol
So you only call a 4 bet with QQ plus ?? Lol
I thought you changed the background to black so we don’t go blind? 😎
Dont be scared. Call
Why is this not a 5-bet preflop?
$6 a half!!! That’s unreal
I must have too much money as I would have called...some days you just get beat but I want to see the cards.
Good thing I don't play often.
Im folding turn tbh :) I know im nit lol . I need to see my opponent do wild stuff otherwise im believing him
Instant call
Should put the matrix screensaver behind instead
New show name! “Better homes and gamblers”
I would have played a different line more often than not, but in that spot on the river, I call. I'd feel my KK is almost face up by then, so villain knows I'm going to fold more than the required MDF, as I lose to AA, lose to QQ, and block AK. If he is sitting there with the other KK, he is free rolling to fold me off the chop, especially knowing I have Kd. If he has AK, he knows there is a 2/3 chance I have Kd if I have KK. Then if he thinks I fold KK with Kd even 50% of the time, he can bluff any 2 cards. The line taken gives you less info about where you're at, than what I would have done.
I would have gone from 20 to 70 instead of 105 preflop, and would have minraised when he came back 225 instead of 300. Click to 380 or 400 representing AA, and fold if he shoves preflop or tries getting the money in later. Losing 210+550 on the flop and turn was unnecessary, if you take a line that shows where you're at. Those two streets alone are double the max I lose to AA in that hand. I only lose more if I get a read that is wrong, that he's representing AA without having it.
I'm not convinced he had AA. While his question about whether hero had Kd might mean he was also smelling AA vs KK, he may have asked due to having another K in his hand, rather than due to having AA. He may have had AKs, AKo, KK, or even KQs, though the 300 argues against KQ of any sort.
Whenever I call in a spot like that, it's a chop way more often than I expect. That one other combo of KK, being overplayed, but overplayed well. "You almost pushed me off the chop. Good hand, sir." Then I smack the table twice, and everyone at the table stops bluffing me and tries taking me to value town for the next few hours. I take that into account. Knowing where the pendulum has swung on your table image, is one of the most important factors in poker.
I liked the old background. Less distracting. Black and white was so simple and clean. The make-up is distracting too. Remember Bart, poker is 80-90% dudes.
dear lord, where the heck are you?
background
Lol I like how you edited in a background. The empty office was a little off putting.
10s is better to call the turn than KK. You want him to have AK, very few people 4 bet AQ so 1010 and KK are basically the same except KK blocks the bluffs we want him to have.
Good morning Bart
Please go back to black background. Light shelving makes it difficult to see white graphics.
👽
This is a sigh call.
What would you expect V to have that you can beat if you call here?
@@1vailchrisI mean you’re basically just hoping he’s tripling off with AK.
I wouldn’t be tripling off with AK in V’s spot because every time I have in this scenario I get snapped by QJ 😂
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj Big difference between what I expect my opponent to have when I call and what we're hoping V will have if we call. The comment up top is that this is just a sigh call. Really? Why? This isn't a spot where V might have made an improbable inside straight on the river when hero flopped top set and slow-played it. That's a sigh call. Hero's just got KK in a spot where V could have AA, or top set, and occasionally will have a straight with A2s/76s/56s. Hero really isn't beating anything but a bluff here, in a spot where V really doesn't have any bluffs. V only gets to the river with AdKd, and he's not triple-barreling with that hand.
If you're going to fold an over pair to a queen high board, just fold to the 4 bet. Not sure how this run out could be any better for the hero. You showed weakness the whole way. You don't think a good player would seize on that and put you to the test on the river?
Hero's close the bottom of his range on the river. From the SB, he could be 3B'ing with hands like AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ/KQ as well as some combos that make straights, like A2s/76s/56s. KK/KQ are the absolute bottom of his range that gets to the river. What hands does V have that hero is beating, when V 4B's pre, then goes bet-bet-bet on this runout? Do you think V is jamming AQ/JJ/TT or AKo here?
Exactly what I was thinking
Depends how good the villain is. If he’s good, this should be indifferent, or close to that. If he’s less good, thus imbalanced, then which way? From what he said of how the fellow was playing, sounds more likely it would be towards not bluffing enough. Also most players under bluff the river.
And most players under 4bet preflop, against a less balanced player we should fold KK 100% of the time on the river imo, against a balanced player mixing a call is reasonable
The issue I see is that V doesn't know hero well enough to know if he's going to let go of KK, so V may not be balanced with his bluffs.
@@1vailchris That’s a good point, but also a good reason to be balanced. If you’re balanced, you’re at worse break even, but do better when your opponent deviates from optimal play. On the other hand, if you’re unbalanced, you open yourself up to the possibility of being destroyed.
@@ewallt I guess I disagree. In order for balance to have value, our opponent needs to be indifferent. When our opponent is going to call too often, we can't bluff as often, and need to be unbalanced. I think V actually is somewhat balanced here, because he's betting with AA, knowing hero could have QQ. He's going for thin value in a spot where he could be value-owning himself. There's really no need for V to continue barreling with AK if he'd be betting AA for value as well as QQ.
Like, just think about what AK combos get 4B pre, then go bet-bet-bet. Only AdKd even gets to the river like this. But AdKd is probably giving up and checking back, because what is V trying to get hero to fold at that point? Without the Ad or Kd in his hand, hero can call with AA/KK/AQ, in addition to QQ. The way this was played, V doesn't really have any "bluffs", so betting AA or QQ is balanced.
@@1vailchris I was commenting on the theory, that is, the math. Being balanced, that is, playing gto, always has value, because the best anyone can do against you is break even. Any departure from the optimal leads to loss, the greater the deviation, the greater the loss. So if you could play gto (an impossibility for humans), you’d never lose (except because of variance), but you’d win less than someone else who played exploitively well against someone else who was unbalanced.
In the point you made about bluffing less against someone who calls too much (I think that was ur example), the correct adjustment is not to bluff less, but not to bluff at all. That’s why being unbalanced can lead to being destroyed. For example, in this given hand, if the pro were balanced, hero would have to play mdf, to lose as little as possible (he’s always going to lose, because it’s a polarized range vs. a defending range), but he loses the minimum this way. If villain is not bluffing because he’s afraid hero won’t fold enough, he gives up a lot of value if he’s wrong, and the more he’s wrong (hero actually overfolds, or just plays balanced), the more he gives up.
There’s a dynamic here that the more unbalanced your opponent is in the other direction than you guessing, the worse you get destroyed. The more you’re out of line in your guess, the more you’ll get destroyed. If the pro thought hero was calling too much and as a result bluffed a little less than optimal, and was wrong, he’d lose just a little. But if he went whole hog on his read, and didn’t bluff at all, he’d lose a lot. Otoh, if he’s correct on his read, and never bluffs, he’ll do relatively better, by however much he’s deviating, than someone who plays gto.
The key point here is that if you guess wrong about how to exploit, you open yourself up to being exploited in a far greater way than what your exploit would have gained you vs. playing balanced. There’s not an even trade here. You’re risking more to gain the same amount, meaning your read must have a certain degree of probability (depends on the size of the bet, but definitely markedly above 50/50) of being correct to make up for the risk involved.
what a Spectacular background! So warmer, so inviting! ❤
Has to be a fold, as painful as it is. Hero loses to AA/QQ, some slivers of A2s, and occasionally some overly-aggro 76s/65s. V is likely to check-back with AQ/A5, JJ/TT, and his missed diamond draws. Hard to find bluffs when V 4B's pre and goes bet-bet-bet against an unknown opponent playing lower stakes. If hero is never 5B'ing pre, then even AA becomes a marginal call.
Agreed, while still pure calling AA you aren’t fist bumping
I agree it's a fold with kings, because you're blocking AK and you're not blocking AA, or QQ. That makes AQ a better hand to call with than KK.
But I don't know if AQ should call here either.
@@gabrielrockman Yeah, good point about the blockers. AQ would just be hoping to chop, at best, but also loses to KK. Even with AA, the way this was played, V could have QQ and some slivers of A2s. It's not a spot where I want to get stacks in and hope my over-pair is good.
@@1vailchris I don't think AQ would be hoping to chop. I don't think that the villain is turning AQ into a bluff on the river, or betting AQ for value on the river. I think calling with AQ is bluff catching, hoping to catch a hand like JJ, AK, diamonds, or some random suited connector that decided to do a 3 barrel bluff.
I think AQ might be a call, especially since all of the AQ suited hands don't block the Ace high diamond draw bluffs, and since it leaves just one combo of QQ. But I'm on the fence about AQ being a call. KK is not a snap fold: it's more of a think about it for a minute, and then realize that it's definitely a fold type of hand. So you're definitely right in describing it as a painful fold.
@@gabrielrockman I dunno about AQ betting river. I can see checking back with AQ, but I can also see a pro betting thin for value. In that scenario, calling with AQ would be hoping to chop.
I could see calling here with KhKs, but hero's specific combo of KdKc is just the worst KK, because it blocks V's AdKd and AcKc bluffs. At this stack depth, I think V could have 4B with A2s, and I wonder if V could have 4B with 76s/56s, so calling with any KK is dicey.
The way this was played, it's hard for me to see calling with AQs. Even though we're unblocking V's diamond draws and reducing QQ to one combo, we're still losing to AA/KK, and potentially some straights, if V is ever 4B'ing pre with A2/76/65. I'm not sure V is going to be over-valuing JJ/TT or triple-barrel bluffing often enough after we 3B pre and call flop and turn.
Sia the Bot is only allowed to play in HCL because she is an anime character come to life. She’s a nit who never bluffs not a GTO robot despite the nickname. She’s not GTO and crush Live Poker teaches lots of exploitative plays…Why can’t he just admit it was a bad call against a nit? Granted she’s a good nit unlike Nitucci who randomly spews or makes terrible calls because his starting hand was good and he has entitlement tilt.
❤Love❤ the background!
Like that background.
Rampage is villain?!?😂