I agree with your analysis here. I track some of the cards you noted (numbered Topps Chrome Mbappe, CR7 and Messi rookies, early Maradona) and this stuff all seems strong right now. The base ultramodern stuff is weaker b/c the collector base isn’t there yet. As for ultramodern rookies, the rare ones with 1 or 2 sets will be the real test cases. For instance, if someone like Arda Guler or Mathys Tel sees on-field production go up in the next couple years, you’d imagine their prices would jump. Most other promising young guys are in too many sets!
I think with vintage the sample size for a lot of cards is quite small and so there is a huge discrepancy between individual copies eye appeal and price. I’ve seen lots more “beat up” cards being moved than ones with great eye appeal so that’s always going to effect the sale price
Just wandering around Gemrate. It feels like the steam has fallen off on getting recent modern sets graded. 2018 Prizm World Cup - 57,000 total graded but 1,000 in the last 6 months 2019 Topps Chrome UEFA - 18,000 total, but 1,000 in the last 12 months 2019 Topps Chrome UEFA - 16,000 total, but 1,000 in the last 8 months. 2022 Prizm World Cup - 24,500 total but 1,000 in the last 2 months. (Submissions for that set haven’t flatlined yet…) Oddly enough, soccer still looks to be around 30,000-40,000 new slabs a month. With the club and continental club seasons done in Europe, I don’t know if the Euros or Copa America will create a quick jump, maybe a higher floor for players who win the titles over the next few weeks in Germany and the US.
Interesting considerations and numbers behind. However we are in a market exuberance phase: S&P, high tech, crypto all at all time high. All assets, from "safest" to most speculative. It might be a local top also for cards, to be tested if market conditions deteriorate
Yeah I would generally agree... super hard to call a bottom... super hard to generalize to the "market", but in general, I think that we may have bottomed generally. Certainly I think that the Messi bottom was likely late last year, but there are some odd data points (even within the same card)... in general, higher end stuff has done better than lower end stuff and it is still a great time to be a collector as long as you are not chasing the highest grades of the most elite cards... those have done pretty well for sure.
Card collecting is most popular in the USA. Soccer isn’t popular here compared to other sports. Rest of the world is into soccer but isn’t that into card collecting and in general have a lot less money than Americans( imagine a Brazilian kid in the slums dropping 2 thousand on a Messi kaboom…). That is why the soccer card market is behind. If you’re buying soccer cards you’re banking they catch up in the next 50-100 years to be completely honest. I mostly stick to pokemon but I’ve been dabbling in sports cards and if you aren’t buying football(American) or basketball you are just losing money most of the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree with the broader premise. Soccer is clearly no where near a lot of the American sports, but that is a big part of the appeal. Would I rather collect one of many American sports and have a tenth or a hundredth of the buying power, or collect the biggest sport in the world at a much higher level. One major factor you don't discuss is supply. Sure America has a great demand for sports cards, but the supply is just as grand. You have 150 years of baseball to collect, 80 years of basketball, another 80-100 of football, 100+ of hockey, TCGs, Non-sport, plus the junk wax era and the modern parallel era. While there is mass demand there is also mass supply. In the case of soccer, it's the biggest sport in the world, and most issues are country wide, with potential world-wide appeal. A much more favorable and forgiving ratio. American sports cards may feel like a safer play, but I can say for myself that had I put my collection money into basketball/football instead of soccer, I would've absolutely gotten clobbered. To this day those sports are still going down 10-20% every 6/12 months.
I feel American collector tends to go more for the high end stuff while Europeans and the rest of the world *raises hand* are used to sticker albums and basic Adrenalyn sets with no fancy insets. I would not be surprised if that eventually changes.
@@UsmntSoccerCards i agree with all of that bro, i am about to buy some soccer cards cause I think long term I mean if it gets popular in the U.S you are talking about Messi/Ronaldo cards shooting up into the millions so long term its a fantastic hold imo which is the good thing about them. going to pick up some cr7 and american players like Pulisic. As soon as Cavan Sullivan gets rookie cards i am scooping up any of those I can as well
I´m Icelandic and been collecting for a few years, just recently I´ve seen more collectors popping up here in soccer, its mostly been nba collectors. I think if you look at soccer cards as a investment its for your children or grandchildren. We can pick up grail cards for a few grands right now, its not gonna be that easy in the future.
Sorry.. I should say no one collects them as an investment. You're better off collecting wrestling or something more popular if you're gonna collect obscure
I agree with your analysis here. I track some of the cards you noted (numbered Topps Chrome Mbappe, CR7 and Messi rookies, early Maradona) and this stuff all seems strong right now. The base ultramodern stuff is weaker b/c the collector base isn’t there yet. As for ultramodern rookies, the rare ones with 1 or 2 sets will be the real test cases. For instance, if someone like Arda Guler or Mathys Tel sees on-field production go up in the next couple years, you’d imagine their prices would jump. Most other promising young guys are in too many sets!
I think with vintage the sample size for a lot of cards is quite small and so there is a huge discrepancy between individual copies eye appeal and price. I’ve seen lots more “beat up” cards being moved than ones with great eye appeal so that’s always going to effect the sale price
I would agree with this 100%
Just wandering around Gemrate.
It feels like the steam has fallen off on getting recent modern sets graded.
2018 Prizm World Cup - 57,000 total graded but 1,000 in the last 6 months
2019 Topps Chrome UEFA - 18,000 total, but 1,000 in the last 12 months
2019 Topps Chrome UEFA - 16,000 total, but 1,000 in the last 8 months.
2022 Prizm World Cup - 24,500 total but 1,000 in the last 2 months. (Submissions for that set haven’t flatlined yet…)
Oddly enough, soccer still looks to be around 30,000-40,000 new slabs a month. With the club and continental club seasons done in Europe, I don’t know if the Euros or Copa America will create a quick jump, maybe a higher floor for players who win the titles over the next few weeks in Germany and the US.
Interesting considerations and numbers behind.
However we are in a market exuberance phase: S&P, high tech, crypto all at all time high. All assets, from "safest" to most speculative. It might be a local top also for cards, to be tested if market conditions deteriorate
Yeah I would generally agree... super hard to call a bottom... super hard to generalize to the "market", but in general, I think that we may have bottomed generally. Certainly I think that the Messi bottom was likely late last year, but there are some odd data points (even within the same card)... in general, higher end stuff has done better than lower end stuff and it is still a great time to be a collector as long as you are not chasing the highest grades of the most elite cards... those have done pretty well for sure.
Card collecting is most popular in the USA. Soccer isn’t popular here compared to other sports. Rest of the world is into soccer but isn’t that into card collecting and in general have a lot less money than Americans( imagine a Brazilian kid in the slums dropping 2 thousand on a Messi kaboom…). That is why the soccer card market is behind. If you’re buying soccer cards you’re banking they catch up in the next 50-100 years to be completely honest. I mostly stick to pokemon but I’ve been dabbling in sports cards and if you aren’t buying football(American) or basketball you are just losing money most of the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree with the broader premise. Soccer is clearly no where near a lot of the American sports, but that is a big part of the appeal. Would I rather collect one of many American sports and have a tenth or a hundredth of the buying power, or collect the biggest sport in the world at a much higher level.
One major factor you don't discuss is supply. Sure America has a great demand for sports cards, but the supply is just as grand. You have 150 years of baseball to collect, 80 years of basketball, another 80-100 of football, 100+ of hockey, TCGs, Non-sport, plus the junk wax era and the modern parallel era. While there is mass demand there is also mass supply.
In the case of soccer, it's the biggest sport in the world, and most issues are country wide, with potential world-wide appeal. A much more favorable and forgiving ratio. American sports cards may feel like a safer play, but I can say for myself that had I put my collection money into basketball/football instead of soccer, I would've absolutely gotten clobbered. To this day those sports are still going down 10-20% every 6/12 months.
I feel American collector tends to go more for the high end stuff while Europeans and the rest of the world *raises hand* are used to sticker albums and basic Adrenalyn sets with no fancy insets.
I would not be surprised if that eventually changes.
@@UsmntSoccerCards i agree with all of that bro, i am about to buy some soccer cards cause I think long term I mean if it gets popular in the U.S you are talking about Messi/Ronaldo cards shooting up into the millions so long term its a fantastic hold imo which is the good thing about them. going to pick up some cr7 and american players like Pulisic. As soon as Cavan Sullivan gets rookie cards i am scooping up any of those I can as well
I´m Icelandic and been collecting for a few years, just recently I´ve seen more collectors popping up here in soccer, its mostly been nba collectors. I think if you look at soccer cards as a investment its for your children or grandchildren. We can pick up grail cards for a few grands right now, its not gonna be that easy in the future.
Haha no one collects soccer cards in the US
Sorry.. I should say no one collects them as an investment.
You're better off collecting wrestling or something more popular if you're gonna collect obscure
@@PriceySweaterComments like this only make me feel better about collecting soccer ☺
Also - there are other places in the world that do collect soccer (and it’s the leading sports in terms of collecting)
@@itzikhanoch3033 yeah, Brazil and Portugal have booming soccer card markers
@@PriceySweaternot sure if your being cynical or not, if you are - whatever, if you’re not - the world is a big place bud
If you live in the US NO ONE IS BUYING SOCCER CARDS.
I singlehandedly invalidate your comment. Try again.