Visa bulletin prediction based on I-485 inventory data analysis - EB India
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- Опубликовано: 18 сен 2024
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You explain it really well. Whether it’s good or bad news, your explanation is clear, logical and provides an outlook. So thankful to you
Thank you Piyush!
@@MandarKasture How likely it is for EB2 to reach 2014 end in the next 2 years? Based on this are you saying that EB2 reaching 2014 again is a remote possibility?
@@MandarKasture Also do you think it will take >5 years even for the filing chart to reach end of 2014?
Even though the topic is boring and not a good news, please help by hitting the like button to spread awareness on this topic
One of the issues is the way USCIS tries to support their argument. People in Seattle who had a lot of people with priority dates from 2011 and 2012 are still waiting which a ton of people from 2013 and 2014. And one might say, maybe because of documentation issues, others are delayed. But that's not the case. Also, the majority of the applications went to the same processing center.
The total inventory for Eb1s this year is around 56K. as per the inventory, 36K available + 8 K awaited this year... which makes it 44K. Despite giving 44K, there will be a remaining of 12K.. DOS numbers not included, Eb2 porting in (Feb. Mar, Apr, May, June) not included, Also, visas already awarded from Oct 23 to Feb 24 not included (not showing up in the inventory).. There should be progression for EB1 to Aug-Sep 2022.. in July bulettin, possibility of Jan 23 is also there. I dont know what data I am missing apart from this.
@@kangeyan2007 your prediction is totally wrong. We are in September and we have not even went before Feb 2022 for eb1 india.
you are a master storyteller. you build up the suspense and keep us on the edge with engaging USCIS content
Ha ha ..how else could I ever keep the viewers engaged in a dry topic like immigration :)
@@MandarKasturethe reality is very bitter I’m not sure how people are enduring this uncertainty what motivates them on a day to day basis keen on knowing
@MandarKasture "D" would highly likely be numbers
Here for "D" Excel file has note - D Disclosure standards not met. This means those no are very limited / small that USCIS can not disclose those. That might prove the identity of those applicant. So I think whoever doing math - they can ignore them.
At 16:06 zombie petitioners. I love that description. In fact I used the same word on trackitt 2 years ago and I got abuses in return but frankly speaking those zombies don’t deserve GC only they have left the US. I still stand by my word even though I have GC now
I was looking this analysis for so long , thanks Mandaar for sharing this 🎉
Thanks Prashant hope it helps
Thank you very much Mandar. You have responded excellently well my queries raised by me a few days back. Highly appreciated.
My pleasure. Hope it helped
Approximately 10yrs ... I think A lot of EB2 will downgrade to EB3. So combined 55k Pending AOS will take approximately 10yrs @5600 visa numbers per year for EB2/EB3. Expect all the Pending AOS to start trying for EB1 which previously was not worthwhile.
I agree
Also lot of EB2 are going in uncapped F category too when their US born kids turn 21. I think that will clear a significant backlog than many think.
So it is evident that Indian National with priority date in Jan 2015 under EB2/EB3 should wait for 10 years for his priority to be current.
As EB2 34k pending I485 and EB3 18K pending I485 with total of 52k and allocated is 5.6k for both EB2 and EB3 per year
unfortunately that is what the numbers say
Hi,
Very nice video, could you please add the links of the data sources, so that we can view the numbers too. Thanks!
This is such a reality of Indian slavery in US for at least 2 decades if not more, individuals takes less risk also in order to maintain the status. I'm also part of the slavery, have faced racism and politics at leadership level but being on visa just puts you on backfoot and restricts your voice and opinion, it's like live with what you have and just work with heads down. India being one of the largest consumer market for all the US companies and our favorable business policies, hoping something works out for people who've bee just living in uncertainty and visa trauma for last two decades. Been waiting from 2015 and going to go on compelling circumstances EAD as I'm about to loose my job. Just keep on renewing every year and take advance parole.
Hello Mandar,
Thanks for explaining the details and helping the community. I have one question-my priority date is Feb 13th in EB2 and I would like to know if you have any predictions about my date whether it can become current in EB2 or EB3 (in this coming 2-3 months)?
Year of your PD matters ;)
Mandar thank you again for all the videos. I know you spend hours researching to do this. One minor recommendation, you should put break up of when the dates would be current based on this data point. It will give some confidence for people who are waiting in line.
Hello,
Visa Bulletin Family based chart table
Chart A for consular processing Or Chart B for consular processing
Which Chart should i follow Now me in India? Thanks!
Follow chart A (final action) for visa number availability
Helpful as usual Mandar , thank you.
Thank you!
Atleast you guys are lucky you got H1 B and 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
I have stopped seeing these immigration videos since nothing much of use happens. 10 years later we will be talking about a 25 year backlog for EB2. Just plain waste of time
I really the liked what you said at the end of the video "THERE IS MORE TO THE LIFE THEN JUST VISA. YOU SHOULD ENJOY YOU LIFE WITH THAT YOU HAVE❗" 😌😀
Thank you!
That is only true until one is hit by these things. I think immigration should be the first thing to sort in US for a long term success.
@@ShantanuNeema-qv6qi - This! Not able to attend major life changing ceremonies back home. Not able to travel to see weddings, births or even funerals. Not able to relax or make changes to life or work because we are limited by companies which will process the greencards (which are currently on hold by many companies). Easy to give advice but difficult to do it untill you are in that scenario. Even the waves seem calm and enjoyable when you are at the beach but it is different when you are on a ship in the middle of an ocean and the waves are turbulent.
@@SJND20 That is what I am saying, sort immigration first then all these things won't be an issue. Only option to work-around is getting in the EB1 queue. I disagreed with OC when he said there is more to life than VISA, it sounds good and I use to think the same not worried about immigration at all. But, when one gets hit by realities it is only VISA here which becomes a roadblock.
@@ShantanuNeema-qv6qi Yes, I agreed with you there! Thank you for being a voice of reason admist dismissive statements made by people who are already on the other side (or are just beginning their journey and have no idea about the impact this has on people stuck here for decades in limbo)
Does Eb2 and Eb3 have some overlap due to applications for same person in both categories?
USCIS has updated I-485 inventory data on 12 June. See data for EB1 India. Now >10,000 people are waiting with pending I-485. Have you any specific thoughts how dates will be move for EB1 India in upcoming fiscal year ?
Thanks for sharing Dhruvi. I will go through it and will cover in my next video
@@MandarKasture any updates on the sudden change that USCIS made to the EB inventory data? How did it change from 10k being available to unavailable?
Hello Mandar! Great content yet again.. what do you think the wait will be for October end 2013 for EB2/EB3? Thanks
“D” means disclosure standard not met and they mention below it’s a fraction like close to 0 based on my reading
I mention that later in the video but thanks
@@MandarKasture I assume that it is 10 or less as the minimum number for all other cells is 11.
People waiting over 15 years with employment approved case and cannot get nothing this is ridiculous
Hi Mandar, thank you for this wonderful explanation. Any predictions on April 2013 EB3 to be current?
Mandar - my priority date is Sept 14th 2012 eb3 India. Can u pls advise what does this i485 inventory mean for me ?I have been following the monthly bulletin and its a close call for me per the filing date chart
Hello. USCIS has updated this data. Please review and let is know you thoughts. This is completely different data set than what we saw few weeks ago.
Which shows 12785 awaiting availability starting September of 2020, compared to 5465 number we saw a few weeks ago. This new data was released July 12
Hi Mandar, thanks for detailed analysis videos, any predictions for March 2013 - Eb2, Eb3 to become current, looking for
pessimistic and optimistic dates
@@SJND20 Following - any predictions for Feb 2013 Eb2 or Eb3 :)
@@Igjt5778 Looks like by this year end.
Thank you Mandar for explanation since it’s very clear. One question, my priority date is 12/2012, do you think it will become current sometime this fiscal year?
No
Do you insights for EB1 india based on the latest i485 data published by USCIS?
Hello Mandar . My pd is Jan 2013 in Eb3 India category . Based on the chart what is your best guess scenario for my date becoming current ?
EB1 India moved to Feb 2022. Almost 11 months movement. I hope it continues to move again in October 2024.
Any guess when Sep 2012 to become current based on this inventory
Thank you so much 🙌🙏🙏
Hope it helps
Hi Mandar,
My PD is May’23 eb1c. Any estimate when it could become current?
how many application gets processed per month on an average for EB1?
I would estimate it to be around 400 approximately
@@MandarKasture oh ok , thanks for the response
Thanks Mandar, I did not see summary for the optimistic scenario, can someone please point to the time stamp
EB2 and EB3 Visa is only gajar to indians. After Every 2, 3 years .. USCIS jumped back to 2-3 years again and again
Until November 2022 the priority dates were current for EB1. It seems very high demand for EB1 Sept-December 2022. So does December 2022 numbers include i140s filed after December 2022 or is that number for i140s filed in December 2022 alone?
This data is for I485s and not I140s.
Yes Infosys TCS cognizant Wipro are all targeting L1 A and EB 1 C the only fastest employment GC option for those born in India
@@rohanutep81 no one is filing EB1C so easily, require lot of approvals and vetting now for EB1C eligible within company, e.g in CTS Only Sr managers and above who are with company for many year and after VP approval , then only they initiate the process
2016 jan , eb2 when can i expect dates to become current
anything beyond 2015 is tough to say.
Hi
Would it be possible for the priority date for eb2 reaches Jan 2013 by December 2024??
Likely
@@MandarKastureany predictions for EB2 April 2013 to be current
How do we track this if we are outside of the US. How can we predict when we would get the GC?
I-485 pending data analysis for EB India. So EB2 will take up to 10 years to reach Dec 2014 and EB3 will take 6 years? Am I reading this right...or going crazy? 🤯 Let me know what you think?
You are absolutely correct, 10 years to reach end of December 2014
It may reduce coz most will fake exp and move to eb1. Ppl with whom one has never worked claim to have managed employees in EB1 application! Some children may be able to sponsor parents. Also family of 4 may currently be counted in all 3 categories due to filing in each category.
Indians need to either return or keep working until they can without bothering about GC.
@@armaanm6075even after all this it takes atleast 6 to 7 years to reach end of 2014
On the Eb2 and Eb3 pending applications, what is your guess on the duplicates ? People who upgraded or downgraded between Eb2 and Eb3. Wouldn't that impact or reduce the pending applications inventory a bit ? In How to Read this Report they mentioned that could affect the inventory ?
The per-country cap applies primarily to the family-sponsored and employment-based preference categories, specifically EB-2 and EB-3. It does not apply to certain other immigrant visa categories, such as EB-1, EB-4, and EB-5, which are not subject to country-specific limitations. Is it correct?
No
Great video Mandar - any guess on when EB3 Jan 2013 will be current?
Between July and October will be my guess. Look at the chart
@@MandarKasture this year July- October? That's great, I was under the impression it will take longer than that. Thanks for the reply.
Why is EB3 ahead of EB2?
India born Canadian here. What is the best option for me to get a GreenCard? TIA!
Spotted a Pepsi in a previous video and now Starbucks... Dude you should also teach the audience how to find these besides immigration 😅
Good catch :) I doubt anyone else knows what you are talking about
@@MandarKasture Indeed .. it's a small community
Any news on bills related to capturing past unused visas?
Nothing gonna happen this year
@@arvindramanathan6278never going to happen
Kindly have a scenario for someone in dec 2014 an dhiw long it may take to get that individual GC hypothetically
Atleast 20-30 years
Hi, Please let me know if you are planning any master class for EB-1C.
I will if more people ask. If there is a demand sure
we need to add cases like mine who will be joining pending inventory, my PD is 15th July 2013, my employer is about to file my 140 in EB3.
Hi Mandar, when do you think 2014 jun will become current again? Your predictions
Not anytime soon
Any hope to be current in next 4 years?
What about ROW .I am from nepal
So i think i will be retired by then. Not good idea to stay.
😂😂😂
Thanks for this video and explanation.
I have one question related to spillover, which is unclear in this video.
How does the ROW spillover work? For example, If EB1 ROW unused Visas 5,000 (For the discussion), how will this 5,000 spill over to other countries (Like India and China)? Will these spill over to the EB1 category only (Horizantely) or move down to EB2 ROW, EB3 Row, EB4 ROW, and then come back to EB1 others? Please provide this information.
@Mandar, waiting for this info
When will EB2 2023 become current?
Never!
@@abhiverma812😂😂😂😂😂
if married - have a kid - 21 years wait
Eb1 priority date is March 2021, why did they give visa available till Aug 2022?
Hi Mandar!! I have my priority date in EB1 for Aug 2023! What optimistic scenario should I look forward for?
a family of 3 members get green cards, 3000 India cap…so, 36000/1000…….36 years to reach EB2 end of 2014…..if any spill over….then 30 years 😭😔
Those are 485 numbers not 140
Enjoy😂😂😂😂
Trump ye namaami
Bhai no way 1 jan 2015 onwards for both eb2 or Eb3 dream about GC in this lifetime . 10 yrs minimimum to reach 1 jan 2015. This is fact and nobody knows anything. Sad reality.🙄🙄🙄
😵
my friend filed 2021 december EB3 pakistan
still tons come from india to us for study