Maybe We Shouldn't Buy EVs... Yet? Are PHEVs and HEVs "Better"?
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- Опубликовано: 5 фев 2023
- An EV might drop your personal consumption to zero, but using the same scarce resources to make full hybrid or plug-in hybrid vehicles might make more environmental sense at the moment. Trouble of course is: we don't live in a rational world where all the stakeholders will think of the common good. So...
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I’m so glad you’re covering PHEVs. I truly love them. They’re no stopgap, they’re the logical transition. BEVs are still too compromised for most people but the tech will improve. PHEVs have so much potential to drastically change the way people are fueling/charging and work well for almost everyone.
One other thing to note, going full ev means you don’t have nearly as much to maintain since there is much less moving parts. No oil changes, no belts, no spark plugs, no transmission fluid, etc.
. That's not directly relevant to the topic.... But at least you make sense..... About if we are producing enough batteries to be able to produce enough BEVs at this time.... Or not?
numERous is bEV owners have been saying They agree..... with a line of reasoning that says the opposite To what they did....
@@nc3826 I'm just saying that it is a relevant point to my decision to buy a Niro ev. And I would think to others as well as the topics that Alex spoke of.
agreed your point was relevant too... Even if Alex didn't focus on it....
And for what it is worth... I was just ineptly trying to compliment you, on making a logical counterpoint.... Which was rare for the comments that I read...
I just do not understand how people can agree with what Alex is saying and still own a BEV? But that is a separate subject...
So what? BEV’s are far more expensive and carry a larger initial carbon footprint. Also your list is disingenuous as only oil changes are frequent enough to ding the costs of a vehicle before its sold by the average new car consumer.
Not to mention the much cheaper operating cost, that trolls never mention.
Alex, you're argument is sound and correct today but I believe in the medium term the market and governments will solve the lithium problem. There's plenty of lithium deposits, it's just getting at it is the problem at this point. In the coming decades, recycling will assist the demand. The larger problem today is the the other metals in the batteries, but future chemistries should help there too, like less reliance on cobalt, for example. You've also succinctly summarized Toyota's argument against EVs. But you're smoking analogy is apt, but not in the way you intended. No amount of smoking is acceptable. Of course hybrids and PHEVs are better than regular ICE but the faster we eliminate the burning of fossil fuels, the better. Let's focus on the bottlenecks for BEV (and lithium) production to mitigate the amount of time that hybrids and PHEVs are an acceptable alternative. I worry that Toyota's approach is kicking the can down the road because it's more profitable short-term, than a thoughtful approach to current limitations.
Having evolved from Prius hybrid (2005) to CMax Energi PHEV (2013, 21 miles EV range with 7 mile office commute) to Mach E BEV (2021), I agree that plug in hybrids are absolutely positive steps. I would add that they can be “gateway cars” to BEV since you get used to plugging in, looking for Level 2 free charging etc without any range anxiety and begin to crave more battery driving and fewer gas station trips.
You are on another level when it comes to vehicle reviews! Please keep them coming and thank you for sharing!
Except a EU study found out that most PHEV owners don’t plug in at all, so it’s efficiency is even worse than a traditional hybrid because it’s heavier.
Thanks to distortions caused by government-action.
That study makes no sense, depending on fuel prices. Where I am, charging my PHEV is equivalent to gas around $1.20 a gallon, so obviously it makes sense to charge whenever possible.
@@mattv5281 These are BMW owners. Plug in to get 10 miles of electric range. Not worth it.
@@mattv5281 The study makes perfect sense knowing its context, but watch EV enthusiasts keep bring it up not understanding what an own goal it is.
Please cite the study or it didn’t happen. Thanks
I appreciate your perspective. The issue though is that studies have shown that most consumers almost never plug in their PHEV - so moderate range EVs are the way to go. We need to reduce emissions, and battery production will increase.
This argument only works in a strong command economy. We can't force people to buy hybrids and we can't force car companies to only produce hybrids. The logic makes sense, but it requires car manufacturers and car buyers to all cooperate.
One missing piece of the video would be around the need for cleaner air. In NYC, having fully electric buses could have a huge impact on air quality and the buses could be used for grid stabilization when off duty.
I think this argument makes sense, but if I was to buy a hybrid instead of an electric, I don't know how to convince 49 other people to also buy a hybrid (instead of fully electric or gas). Partially because of the politics and emotions, people tend to be on one extreme or the other.
Additional fuel economy regulations would likely receive huge political pushback, which could backfire. Even if we could increase fuel economy regulations, how do you prevent BEV manufacturers from taking up the vast majority of battery supply, when they can sell every car they make, at almost any price?
don't know how to convince other people to also buy a hybrid instead of an suv icev....
Ain't life a bitch;)
Right on, Alex. Thanks for speaking up for us PHEV owners. Back in the 70’s Briggs & Stratton made a hybrid that got my attention. It was gasoline powered to the rear wheels, and electric powered to the front wheels. Eventually the iconic Prius came along, and for a lot of years it was the best economy car to buy in California. Yes, my brother in law had a diesel Jetta that got 55 mpg, but he lived in Nevada, and obtained that mileage by having a 55 mile one way freeway commute. I owned a Prius. Then a Leaf, and a Smart EV, (when I was commuting). After retirement, the mission of my cars changed, and I bought an Audi A3 eTron, replacing my Audi A4 Avant, and a Fusion Energi to replace my 11 year old Leaf with 46% battery SOH.
After 2450 miles the Energi shows 60.1 mpg, the Audi is 45.3 over 2 years. On the kWh side, I would have to consult the cars, but basically I can charge both cars in 2 hours at home using my Juicebox level 2 charger the cost is about $1.50 per charge.
Alex, and other RUclipsrs always present the cutting edge in automotive technology, so thanks to him for this video presentation. It is what I have been trying to say for the last 2 years. Work incrementally and take small steps to success. In my career, I went 11655 days without a traffic accident. After that I went into management, so I quit counting.
Thanks again, Alex. Great job on this one.
And just an FYI,
I am not a new car buyer because of the prices, always buy one owner certified preowned cars for the best value.
This argument makes sense and is probably true in the short term, but it also assumes that the number of vehicles produced is a fixed number, which is also why Toyota is pushing this line. The reality is that if you seriously want to address climate change and environmental destruction from battery production, there need to be fewer cars manufactured, which means we need to figure out ways for people to drive less. I don't know if this is a popular opinion on a RUclips channel dedicated to reviewing cars, but I think it should be acknowledged if we actually want to do the math on battery manufacturing.
I do think that moving towards an all hybrid fleet would be a great start, but I also think that we should still be innovating in the realm of BEV and PHEV now. That way those of us who can afford the more expensive vehicles can serve as the early adopters that will help to work out the kinks as we move towards an all electric future.
It’s not just limited resources with respect to cost, it’s also an overall limit on materials to build large batteries. Eventually we’ll build everything electric, but until then a hybrid is really the way to go.
Very rational and measured approach Alex! Whether you energy independence or green house has emission reduction - everyone in hybrid is the more realistic way to get us there - incentive for partial electrification is the better ramp up and leap to full EV adoption since the premium is so high
I totally agree that going all EVs quickly isn't an option and we should think about intermediate stages. But, I think PHEV should be the way to go so that people also get used to with some plugging in. Every day I had answer how difficult it is to charge and how impractical an EV for long drive.
Really liking these editorial type of videos. Appreciate your knowledge and insight.
More Please!
I fully agree, which is why I bought a new Honda Hybrid. Hopefully, I can go all electric after that car.
The +40 EV miles covers all daily driving from our 2018 CT6 2.0E plug-in. The smaller than EV battery at 18kw is all that is needed for most.
Interesting argument and one that I agree with. I recently "upgraded" my 2014 BMW i3 w/REX with a 2022 Chevy Bolt. Both vehicles have very similar functionality, and it is not lost on me that the Chevy Bolt's battery is three times the size of the i3's so they could theoretically build three times as many vehicles with a REX using the same amount of batteries. Oddly enough, the REX (265 lbs) is lighter than the 22kWh batter pack (450 lbs) that comes in the i3 and much lighter than the 65 kWh battery (947 lbs) that comes in the Bolt while being more useful than a 65 kWh battery alone. One could easily argue that a vehicle with a REX is better suited for trips in West Texas due to the lack of DC fast chargers. I don't understand why no other manufacturer has made a PHEV with a 60-70 mile range and a REX. In fact, BMW has abandoned the idea. I don't get it.
You might be the market for the Mazda MX-30 with Wankel range extender.
@@jamesvandamme7786 Maybe.
real friends don't suggest buying an overpriced Mazda MX-30.... i hope you hacked your i3 REX, to gain the full use of its gas tank.... and to improve its REX hold function... Good luck getting more and better DCFC in Western Texas....
btw real Texans should get a BEV pickup truck with a range extender, like the coming RAM Revolution REx...
@@nc3826 I bought it used and it came hacked. Having "Hold State of Charge" at 75% infinitely increases the utility of the REX. I would gladly buy a BEV pickup if there was one for less than $30,000 or $40,000. I can't afford more than that. That's a major reason I got the Bolt.
@@chrisb508i3 REX 2.4 Gallon Gas Tank, is Software Limited To 1.9 Gallon in the US unless it's hacked, so I hope that was done too...
and the sub $40,000 BEV pickup, has left the port.... after the Ford Lightning base price was raised....
This is why I don't understand why you get the tax credit for EV/PHEV and not hybrid.
This is why I don't understand why you get the tax credit for EV/PHEV.... But not for electrically driven mass transit oR bicycling or walking;)
Thank you for the sanity. Also worth considering is the environmental impact of mining and refining and reclaiming required metals and sources of the additional required electricity: coal, natural gas, nuclear etc.
I have been saying this for years. I still hope to own an EV and charge it with solar some day, but the lowest hanging fruit for me now is a PHEV for the family and an HEV + motorcycle for me. HEVs are the best use of batteries for emission reduction on a per kWh basis.
the only real moral and logical low hanging fruit is to keep the car you already have for as long as possible, or if you have to, buy the cheapest less polluting used cars, till you will have the opportunity to buy a good EV, used or new.
Buying new ICE, hybrid cars today is just a waste, of money for you, and resources for the world.
@@USUG0 sounds like I should grab one of those early 90's Roadmasters! I've got 3 kids and need as much space as I can get. At least they're easier to repair than today's vehicles.
That said, I was really impressed with the new Sienna hybrid that we rented for a family trip last year. The last 6hrs home brought in 40.2mpg (I had to double check the math!) thanks to a little stop and go. We had it filled to the gills with all sorts of stuff. But, we just can't afford a newer car; the Sienna's are going for around $40k depending on the trim.
@@USUG0 AND I WILL BUY A FULLY LOADED 2023 OUTLANDER PHEV ANYWAY!
@@USUG0 I feel like buying used helps avoid the manufacturing waste.
@@RichardJoashTan good for you. There is never shortage of suckers. And, carmakers know that. 😛
Besides, that's a phev. Although, of course, instead of improving the previous platform which was closer to how a phev should be engineered, they switched to the meh nissan one
I wouldn't say all hybrid is best, but I would say we need more hybrids. I think if you can afford an EV and want one, go for it. We should incentivize infrastructure improvements, which is largely driven by consumer demand.
At the same time, I'm not telling my mom to buy an EV. It's not straightforward yet, and they're expensive. We can absolutely get a lot of bang for the same buck by putting hybrid drivetrains in more vehicles, and hopefully in heavier vehicles (e.g. trucks). But also keep in mind people drive cars for a long time, so saying "let's all drive hybrids" is setting us up for 10-20 years of gas consumption.
Like everything, it's complicated, and a mixed approach is probably best
Coherent plans are impossible. This makes just as much sense at gunning for 1 BEV and 1 ICE in a 2 car household as often is my argument to get around lithium shortages. The problem is we're not all invested in coming to a consensus. That makes it literally impossible. You can't tell everyone to make the choice they want and then hope they make the right choice in a coordinated fashion with others, especially not on a hot button, partisan issue like EVs, electrification, and the environment overall.
Great video! At an individual level, PHEV have nearly the same problems as BEV - they are far too costly and scarce. Most of the available PHEV are equal to or more than 50k in the US, and you wait months or years to get one. And many do not qualify for federal credits, which seems to skew pricing. Desirable hybrids also have long wait times.
My kids enjoy silent ride to school and back in Chrysler Pacifica PHEV. I use gasoline on long trips and sometimes in the winter when it is too cold and that car’s heating comes mostly from ICE unfortunately unless you start slowly to heat the cabin.
In Canada if a PHEV has more than a 50km EV only range it still qualifies for full EV rebates, and if it is less range it gets half the rebate. They still will almost never pay for themselves with the added cost.
@@Snerdles Canadian fed rebate is 5k. It covers the Phev upgrade option in Hyundai, but wait time is simplify ugly.
@@shichynwang In NB they match that too, so you get 5k off from the feds and 5k off from the province. Maybe look in to buying there and then register it in your home province if it's cheaper to do.
Alex is 100 percent right on the money!!! As a former F-150 Lighting Lariat Owner who got a Lightning before Ford Corp jacked up their prices (and I had a good dealer MSRP). In the colder Pacific Northwest the realistic range got down to 250 miles (Extended Battery 131kWh). So a person cannot stray from a home charger. Otherwise the DC Station costs is way WAY more than fueling up our ICE Honda Ridgeline (especially now that gas is less). But like Alex said, even if gas was $5 a gal. it's still cheaper (I'll expound further below).
So, I know several folks that have traded in their Lightnings, after being frustrated w/Public & Private DC charging stations that do NOT work. Which then can have 2 or 3 people waiting in line to charge. Which is NUTS! And what is the future going to be?...when all these vehicles are purchased used by folks in apartments? (referencing a previous Alex video) & people are waiting 50 minutes to an hour at DC charging stations because they cannot charge at home at all...what then?
It's pretty interesting, especially living in an area where it would seem local government & the (3) Pacific Coast States (WA, OR and CA) don’t seem to be thinking of future consequences, or confused why things aren’t working. Just like the drive to keep taking down clean energy producing hydro electric dams, but then on the news...they actually ask people to “please don’t charge you EVs as the energy grid is stressed"…what?! are you kidding. But I chose to buy the Lightning...yet if the government forces people to buy EVs. They better think about all the consequences...yea right!!! ha ha 🤪🤣😇I've talked to more than a few Ford Fleet Managers...where there seems to be a swelling of those who need trucks to do their work…where forcing them to adopt super short range trucks is not viable. It will make food & goods even more expensive because of more time labor & cost. Plus, many dealers cannot sell their expensive Lariats and Platinums and are incurring big flooring costs.
Anyway, as I started to mentioned above...it may sound nuts, but our Honda Ridgeline consistently gets between 26.3-26.6 MPG at the pump for highway use. So by the time a person goes on 1,200 mile trip w/how long it takes to charge the Lightning & having to pay for a hotel (where we could have driven straight through)...or even without the hotel & not counting what person's time is worth. DC charging away from home costs WAY more than if gas was back up to $5 per/gal. 🤪It is pretty shocking...but easy to figure on a spreadsheet. So I'm not an extreme anything...but I believe we should take care of what we've been given, yet we were also given a brain to use & when something doesn't make sense. We need to use our brains, too!
I've owned 35 vehicles in my life (5 have been hybrids)...2 - 2004 Prius; 07Camry Hybrid; 13 Avalon Hybrid Limited w/Tech Pkg (rattle trap); 2015 Accord Hybrid Touring (best no rattle, solid, great car). One of the things I love most, is the ability to stand on the accelerator all day long & still get 38-44 MPG (in the case of my Accord Hybrid). I simply LOVE the instant torque of the electric motor. So me personally, there is "fun" in getting good MPGs (as it makes me "feel" like I should drive to the beach without spending $100). I'd love it if Toyota put like the Crown's Hybrid Max into a Tacoma...then it'd have instant torque, a great AWD system that's usable everyday, towing, mileage range, instant re-fueling, & get about 30-32 mpg.
So I agree, going from one extreme of ICE ONLY to EV ONLY...well the Ford Lightning proved to me it's basically just a glorified Nissan Leaf that a person can only drive around town...and is now bloody expensive with Ford Corps price hikes!!!
Anyway, from a previous Ford Lightning Owner...while I must say the Lightning is & was a kick in the pants...it still was just not worth it...and I hope this might help others out there! 😇
I've been thinking this for some time. Glad to hear a clear analysis of the rationale supporting it. Of course, my e-bike saves even more resources... when the trip is appropriate to using it!
Great video! More such comparisons are needed for ICE vs Hybrid vs PHEV vs EV!
This was my arguments on Twitter for the past 12 months, the only caveat is,
you still need electric vehicles to push the market to produce more batteries
No. A large demand for hybrids and PHEVs is sufficient for that.
Good point. Since BEV is the long term goal, I think the current mix of HEV, PHEV, and BEV are good enough for pushing industry forward.
The lithium price has gone up almost 10x since 2020, almost like an outbreak. Mining and refinery are less flexible industry with big upfront cost. So easing the curve from the demand side benefits to the consumers and more long term, cumulative environment impacts.
@@MistSoalar The issue is that BEVs use ridiculous size batteries compared to HEVs. For example, a Rav4 Hybrid uses a 1.7 kWh battery, a Rav4 Prime PHEV uses an 18.1 kWh battery (over 10 times the size) and a comparable Tesla Y AWD uses an 81kWh battery. That’s nearly 48 times the size!
48 Rav4 hybrids is 47 more customers to satisfy than a single Tesla! Right now, BEVs account for just 5.1% of all new car sales. That’s all! Imagine if 70% of all cars sold were electrified! That would be a much bigger stimulus!
@@afcgeo882 Agreed. BEV camp (including myself tbh) often states lithium is abundant in the crust, but it's as rich as hydrogen in the universe. We may have to tap into more lesser ideal deposits and spend more energy for the industrial uses.
@@MistSoalar Lithium isn’t the biggest issue in those batteries. Cobalt is.
I try to tell ppl .. drive less.. fly less but most importantly consume less will help the most .. not working out well 😖😖
Try starting another pandemic, that seemed to work;)
@@nc3826 insert GIF 'greatest idea ever' here
insert GIF.... dear FBI. I was just joking....
Good points. However, people are going to do what is best for them and EVS are best for individuals and eventually will be best for the the communities. As a car owner, I don't want to maintain 2 engine types (EVs and ICE). It will be way cheaper to own an EV, so the individual will weight that cost of ownership.
My dad has the 2023 Kia Niro EV Wind. He has had it since last May 31st of 2023. So in a month it will be his one year anniversary with it. He still loves his a lot.
Great discussion, Alex! While I appreciate your rational approach to allocating currently scarce resources in the most logical way to maximize positive environmental outcomes, that's not the way free markets tend to operate. Demand doesn't always conform to logic, with emotion often shaping demand more than logic. And this is typicaly what happens when technological disruption affects a market. Think digital flat screen TVs, smartphones, and music and video streaming. Such transitions are rarely smooth. There are lots of bumps in the road that create dramatic shifts in supply/demand curves. Like it or not, that's where we're at with the EV, PHEV, Hybrid, ICE vehicle market equation. So, yes, we could have a more immediate positive impact on CO2 reductions, if our limited battery resources were allocated to hybrids and PHEVs, but that's not what a lot people want to buy, nor is it what many manufacturers want to produce. For example, until very recently, Toyota sold it's "Prime" PHEVs pretty much in CARB states only. I wanted to buy a Prius Prime for my wife a couple of years ago, but couldn't get one in Georgia. I bought a used VW e-golf online instead. And if I'm honest, after driving EVs (Nissan Leafs) for the last 6+ years, I don't ever want another ICE vehicle. I hate listening to gas engine noise and otherwise dealing with ICE vehicles and gas stations. However, I will consider trading our e-Golf and Prius V (used for trips) for a 2023 Prius Prime (finally a pretty good looking Prius), if Toyota can manage to actually make it relatively easy to buy one in Georgia.
I argue this point with my friends almost every time I get a chance. I own both plug in and full BEV. But when they say electric is better for environment, my mind explodes 😂
Yes, it depends on how much you drive and where you get your electricity. If you drive less than 20miles a day then you rarely have to use gas, then PHEV is better
alex wants you to donate your batteries from your BEV to a PHEV owner😂😂😂😂
@@joeisawesome540 if they are REALLY environmentally conscious, they would buy hybrid/ plug in hybrid. Driving 6 plug in 50 miles every day is better for environment than one BEV driving 50 miles…
@@Abevlife Again, it depends on the source of electricity and how far you would drive, and if you plug in daily. PHEV suits people who go only locally on a daily basis.
@@joeisawesome540 This is the dilemma that I am in now. We have a Jeep Grand Cherokee 4XE, and consume very little fuel as my wife makes most of her kid shuttling runs within the 26ish mile range, and we have an L2 charger at home. I want to jump to a BEV in a few years with my current ICE commuter, but the pricing of PHEVs and range like these Niros make it very tempting to just go with the PHEV option. My round trip commute is roughly 22ish miles.
Really well said on the cold turkey vs harm reduction. Sounds like something my therapist has told me lol
Great vid. recently swapped over to a HEV, do wish I would've jumped into a PHEV directly, but I couldn't find resources that calmed the anxiety and uncertainty like this channel. exactly like discussed just the option of having a HEV helped me make one step towards EVs and I'm pumped to go full EV in the future when I have the means (charging/money) as I rent still and work doesn't have chargers. I'm ready for the future!
One of the things that I feel like was a swing and a miss was with toyota and ford not making the trucks be phev. The worst of mpg these vehicles get is in the city. Using them as a phev and getting them charged at night then heading out to work would be a huge cost mitigation for many and they are volume sellers. I realize this would affect payload but then adjust springs and components to do that and keep payload ratings acceptable.
The other idea I had was doing this with a 2500. They have the chassis to accept the weight and would still have decent payload ratings. But reduce their emissions considerably. I do realize that most of the truck world is not ready for that yet.
Great info as always! I think its a good idea to get your feet wet by getting into a Hybrid or Plug in and get a sense before jumping into a full EV. That's what I did and now in a full EV vehicle and love the fact I don't have to go to gas station(sort of) but do have another vehicle which is gas and hoping to change that to Plug-in as car prices are finally coming down but need to figure out which car now qualifies for Fed/State incentives.
His point is we "still" do not produce enough batteries, at affordable prices...
So for everybody that already bought a BEV.... He's telling all of you you did the wrong thing.....
Alex rhetorically asks, Maybe We Shouldn't Buy EVs... Yet? his answer is NO
So for everybody that already bought a BEV.... He's telling all of you you did the wrong thing.....
Please explain to me how you and so many people can rationalize, how this is about getting their feet wet?
I've had 8 years of experience with a Chevrolet Volt PHEV and it's been great. I can't imagine a better vehicle to get a taste of the EV experience.
As I sit here watching this with the key to my Kia EV6 RWD Wind in my pocket, I must admit that your numbers are compelling: a little better in a lot of cars goes much farther toward reducing emissions than does a lot of battery in one car. I think where I’ll still sleep easy at night with my decision to get an ev instead of some hybrid is that I can influence my own behavior and purchasing decisions-but I can’t really influence others’. Hopefully you can! Videos such as yours were an outsized portion of my research into which ev to buy, and I’m sure others shopping for hybrids will be able to say the same.
Your stats and data tell everything. We need to push towards HEV and PHEV more than BEV. I remember the video you did a couple years back showing why Toyota was fighting the straight ev push. You can make 6 PHEV cars instead one fully electric car. Problem is hybrids just aren’t as sexy as a full electric.
Using the 6 PHEV = 1 BEV theory, I believe I can convince 6 family members to move from ICE to PHEV if inventory exists. I also believe most of the new PHEV owners who use those cars less then 30 miles a day could avoid significantly more gas consumption annually than I would as the otherwise willing owner of the BEV!
Unfortunately the Green movement is ideologically uncompromising doesn't exhibit much common - if any -- common sense. The short term (next 5-10 yrs) of this shortsightedness is gonna wreck havoc for consumers, automakers and on the environment. Maybe, just maybe the long term effect will show some benefit.
Good video, I of course say that because I agree with your reasoning. Seriously, you brought the temperature down on what could be a hot topic. Well done.
Thanks in part to your long term test, I bought a RAV 4 hybrid three weeks ago. Thanks again.
Loved the breakdown! now i want to read up on Lithium reuse/recycling. Thank you Alex!
I'm with you. but we have to consider, hybrid works only if you do a lot of city driving, for someone in the country or having a lot of long-distance driving, a plug-in or an EV would be a better choice.
I wish I could get my hands on a PHEV.. but the brands have made it next to impossible to get your hands on one since stock and supply is really really low (especially in Canada).
That is because Phev margin is small. OEMs are no charity. Carbon footprint is only an excuse.
Good points, and definitely worthwhile considering, especially now for larger vehicles, like minivans, but I think a few really important things were missed in this analysis.
As you say, new EV purchases are limited by the supply of batteries, but it's also limited by many other slow factors. The average car is used for 12 years, so people aren't going to buy right away. EVs need new models, designs, and manufacturing lines, and batteries need mines, new processing pipelines, and new supply chains. All of these take years or decades to dramatically increase, which means we are not in a position to consume all the new batteries on the current demand anyway. According to statista, worldwide battery production is projected to be 2,700 GWh by 2030. That's pretty close to your 3,000 GWh demand for 2030. I'm not sure if these projections account for the possible improvements in battery energy storage density or new technology. If they don't, then we could be at higher levels. And if there are good government incentives for research and mining, then there's no reason to suspect we can't hit much higher than that 2,700 GWh projection.
As people switch to BEVs, we are seeing manufacturers also work on improving all sorts of other efficiencies: air drag and tires come to mind, but this could easily be seen to drive the market away from SUVs and large trucks and towards station wagons. Alongside the huge increase in BEV demand one could easily see that there will be a huge increase in charging network demand. A 200 mile range vehicle with many 350kW charging station options would be fine for long distance travel. It might even result in smaller batteries to save money, thereby keeping a fully electric fleet but being more efficient on the manufacturing of batteries. And battery recycling could reduce the demand on the lithium battery market. No doubt new EVs will drive up these pipelines, which might have side benefits to all the consumer electronics as well.
But if we are going to be imagining an "all together now" future where we can act in a unified way, there are lots of things we can do to reduce the number of cars on the road. Consider that the EU has almost 30% fewer cars per person than the US. If we decided that we wanted more high-speed rail, more pedestrian-centric city construction, etc, we could reduce the number of annual vehicle miles travelled by a lot. I would argue we need to do this regardless of whether or not we are using BEVs or ICEs.
Should the lifespan of the battery also figure into the evaluation? My Sonata PHEV is in the shop to get the big battery replaced after just 50k miles and 5 years -- under warranty. The dirty little secret of PHEVs is that if you try to minimize ICE usage, you might be deep-cycling your battery a lot more than you would if you did the same commuting miles in an EV. In 5 years, I probably cycled my PHEV battery around 1,000 times (some days twice ... then came the pandemic). With a typical EV, that number might have been 250 over that same time and distance -- about once a week. And my EV would not be in the shop ...
Another inconvenient truth to discuss that is related to this topic: Fuel economy. It literally says "Your mileage will vary" on the window sticker. EPA numbers are a hypothesis; an educated guess, if you will. People have to stop getting mad if they got 29 mpg on a road trip when the car is rated for 30 mpg on the highway.
I have made comments saying this on multiple EV channels (including this one) - glad to see a proper video explaining it. Three points you did not specifically state:
We already make enough battery cells to make all cars HEVs.
The cost extra cost of an HEV vs. the equivalent ICE vehicle pays for itself in two or three years for a typical driver.
HEVs require zero charging infrastructure.
I enjoyed your math comparing the three models. Still want to keep my 07 Mazda 3 that keeps on going and going and going.
I believe we see that most people don't plug in their PHEVs which defeats the purpose of them. (from statistics/polling I've seen)
Ok, but my 2 main motivations for wanting an EV are 1 - I hate the smell of gas and dont want to EVER have to go to a gas station again and 2 - stick shifts are getting so hard to fidn i decided its time to go for a different kind of 'cool' car
Having just visited Japan recently (Tokyo) I noticed a few interesting things: 1) The most obvious is the size of the vehicles. Over there a Toyota Aqua (the discontinued "Prius C" over here) is a mid-size car, kind of like an Accord. They have several small Kei-size cars that almost look like toys. It makes sense for their many small one-lane residential streets. Number 2) is the amount of hybrids they have over there. Most of the taxis are all this Toyota hybrid unique taxi-looking car and the bigger minivans they have are all hybrids too. There's very few pure BEVs over there. So Alex's "dream" of all Hybrids, while I think has zero chance of ever happening in America, that specific model is kind of playing out right now in Tokyo. And finally, as an addtitional observation from when I lived in Japan as a kid in the 90s, the smog level has so drastically decreased it's amazing.
Excellent video Alex, we are on the fence about things, this will helps us with our decision between PHEV vs EV, we currently have an HEV
Another great video with intelligent points to consider (as always!).
I agree that moderation is the best first step for the majority of people. But you didn't mention full gas vehicles that get great mileage. I think there is still a solid niche for gas only vehicles that can reasonably compete with HEV's on their own terms. My wife's CRV Hybrid averages 37mpg on long distance trips on the highway, but we normally use it in commuting and in the city driving where it shines, with closer to 40+ mpg. My 2019 (gas only) Audi A5 continues to outshine it's EPA Hwy estimate, as it actually gets an average of 38mpg (with cruise set at 78) on long distance interstate, driving, which is what I prefer to use it for.
Not everyone's lifestyle can accomodate such disparate or costly vehicles, but my point is that batteries aren't the only option for those of us wanting to cut back on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas production. Depending on your needs and lifestyle, you may have more options than you think.
The Audi / VW 1.8 & 2.0 Turbos are a wonderful example of high efficiency ICE engines. Unfortunately very few other engines come close.
Thanks for this. I have heard that there are significant costs (pollutio) of handling the waste disposal of batteries, which offsets some of the extra damage caused by using cas to power the car. If this true?
There's some additional end-of-life costs for BEV compared to ICE, but that difference is negligible. Especially compared to the emissions difference for the several years the car would be driving around.
I bought a Subaru Crosstrek PHEV in 2019. I was motivated by feeling the need for AWD after burying the front wheels of my Prius Prime in a snow drift on a high mountain pass road in New Mexico and being totally unable to back up. I still wanted PHEV and had limited resources so I had to get the most affordable PHEV with AWD at the time. With federal and state rebates, I paid $30,000. Since then, trying to finagle my daily driving to fit the very limited EV range of the Subaru has been a real challenge. You might think of it as pseudo range anxiety. This incorporates route planning, seeking to limit my speed to improve efficiency, etc. It’s pretty OCD. In any case, I’ve gotten around 75 MPG overall. My electric comes entirely from community solar. When Tesla cut the price of their AWD models and the energy bill loophole opened up, I was a bit tempted to sell the Subaru and buy a Tesla. But my decision was to stay the course and keep up my weird mental game of driving the bare minimum and in such a manner as to limit my gas consumption. I’m retired so my needs to drive are guided by a combination of essential and nonessential travel. I’m limiting the latter as much as possible.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. 😊
There is also the long term cost savings of Hybrid over ICE on things like brakes and tires. The eCVT doesn't have the belts of a traditional CVT and they run cooler, so in theory they should run forever whereas CVT belts need to be replaced at a significant expense.
Hybrid batteries will last a long time, even as the range reduces or the battery completely stop functioning (as I found when looking into used Chevy Volts) the car can still function as an ICE vehicle. Volt batteries are really expensive to replace, hopefully current, smaller hybrid batteries will be less expensive in the future, and possibly an upgrade to give the vehicle more EV range.
The problem with EV and Hybrid is the fast paced technology, and the apparent lack of interest of manufacturers to allow replacement or upgrades to keep used vehicles on the road and relevant. We have a Bolt EUV and Corolla Hybrid, it would be nice in 5 or 6 years to replace the battery at a reasonable cost and pass the cars down to the kids or sell them.
I agree. I love EVs and currently own a full EV after moving from great PHEV (18’ Volt).
I love my EV but i think it would be better to use those resources on Hybrids.
The faster we can reduce our dependence on foreign oil the better. If everyone drove a hybrid we just may be able to be self sufficient when it comes to oil production.
His point is we"still" don't have enough batteries to produce BEVs.... So how can a BEV owner agree, unless you regret your decision?
We have a 2018 CT6 2.0E plug-in with Voltec and love the almost 50 miles of pure EV driving before 2.0T gas fires up for almost 40 mpg cruising.
Hi Alex, I think you're making a very valid point here! The focus should be on the goal, i.e. reducing emissions according to a trajectory that gets us where we need to be. How it is being done, should be left open. In that aspect, Toyota's approach to offer HEV options in each model might get them where they need to be cheaper and more affordable to the end-user. If other OEMs follow a mixed approach with pure EVs and or PHEVs combined to get them there, good for them too, as long as the goals are met.
I'm very new to EVs and I never had an interest in learning about cars beyond the necessities until I began shopping for an EV. To me, a huge selling point for an all-electric battery vehicle is the reduced maintenance. Going hybrid just feels like I'm doubling my liabilities for breakdown potential. I want to reduce the need for oil changes and mechanical errors in the housing of those liquids. New tires will become a more frequent purchase for heavier BEVs, but it's something you can calculate and plan for. ICE vehicles can have $2,000 repairs because the oil melted through some plastic after 7 years (personal experience).
That’s not how that works. Electrical components simplify the entire system.
I think the direction we're currently going is good. If we all buy hybrids we won't put the urgency behind improving battery tech for fully electric. I prefer BEV because of the performance and convenience, not necessarily the CO2 reduction. The amount of performance and convenience you get from a BEV for the money can't even be compared to a hybrid or gas.
I have always thought this and it is nice to see real life numbers get put to it to really make it make sense.
It also kind of goes with people going from a hybrid to a PHEV or BEV, they are still eliminating their gas usage but not as much as if a previous ICE owner purchased a PHEV or BEV. I'm not sure of a statistic, but I bet it is proven that many PHEV or BEV owners' previous cars were hybrids and not ICEs.
I’ve been an ev-only driver for 8 years now, and I’m a huge tree hugger, but I think that PHEV trucks are the way to go for the next five or so years. Give them 50 miles of ev range, then 300 miles of gas range. Most People could do 90% of their annual driving on electric only, yet have no fear of range anxiety that currently keeps many of them from wanting to go electric
Some great points, one note would be most PHEVs have fairly low EV only range, which at that point for cost and complexity a regular Hybrid version may be just as good if not better. Like the Wrangler 4xE vs the eTorque Wranglers from 2018/2019, the eTorque got nearly 30mpg all day long,, the 4xE gets over 30MPG while the battery is charged but then drops to the mid 20s or lower after it's depleted, so the execution on some PHEVs is just not there compared to a regular hybrid.
Alex this does make a lot of sense. I don’t own a hybrid but do use a hybrid transportation model. We have a Hyundai Tucson with a 1.6T motor which is very efficient on the highway that gets 7L/100 km at 100kph. We have a used 2018 Nissan Leaf which is used for all short trips and have a level 2 home charger. It is very efficient and maneuverable in urban driving. The replacement for the Hyundai may be a hybrid.
Totally agree Alex on the Hybrid route vs PHEV or EV. Prices on PHEV and EV are just plain sky high for the common human and consume a lot of resources. Hybrid route makes more sense (for now). I own both a PHEV and hybrid and while I am not completely using no oil, I have noticed that it does reduce my footprint considerably then even owning 1 ICE vehicle. Yet, at the same time, I am not breaking my wallet trying to buy a EV that's comparable to when I own. Thanks for confirming what I have been feeling the whole time!
My wife has a Niro PHEV. She loves it. It's basically an EV because she rarely drives more miles than the battery can handle on a charge. Plus on the occasions she needs to drive long distances she can with no issues. She often goes thousands of miles before needing a fill up.
I appreciate that you are diving deep into this but I believe supply chain has to come into this conversation. If we aren’t developing and selling ev cars right now, then there wouldn’t be any incentive for companies to put capital into r and d, facility buildout, ev charging deployment, and all the other super important infrastructure in place. These things take decades to implement. We need the wealthier folks who believe they are “changing the world” to buy ev vehicles now because with each purchase, the unknowns become more known, money flows into the system, buildout occurs and eventually the Everyman will be able to buy an ev without it costing the insane amount it does now. The entire industry cannot pivot instantly once everyone is in a hybrid.
EV sales are continuously increasing year over year. -Travis
this was great! and if it was a presentation to all the carmakers and they followed the kumbayah thinking and your advice (and math) it would sell them.
however, you're talking to consumers, by and large. right idea, wrong audience. i'd love to see you reapproach this line of thinking from the point of view of a consumer with what's on the market and likely to be on the market in the coming years (with availability and price hikes, etc. factored in with the calculations). this is what i'm doing right now in search of a vehicle and i think it might be even more interesting for your viewers.
keep up the great work!
As well explained (and compelling) as any discussion on this subject I’ve heretofore seen. Nicely done!
Great video i already owned. a venza hybrid limited 2022 i really love it good on gas i don't need to worry about plug in yes some people crazy about 2 . 3. 4 seconds acceleration from 0 to 60 miles my venza take around 7.1 seconds is not bad not to slow that is why Akio toyoda he doesn't believe fully electric cars yet.thanks for your video
Thank you for the logical look at the current situation. Someday mostly full BEVs will make sense but right now we just need to maximize the reduction of burning fossil fuels.
Great stuff, Alex. This is exactly what toyota execs have been trying to show the world's economic forums for awhile now. Makes total sense.
But the double power is not overkill unless you live in the suburbs or city. A turbo-4 will see +40 mpg at the highway speed limit.
On paper, I could be convinced to agree with you, but only if the assumption is that we are at 100% utilization of battery resources. Furthermore, I see a hybrid as the stop-gap measure that you mention, but also the worst of both worlds from an ownership perspective. You have all the complexity and newness of an electric vehicle, plus the same maintenance and wear issues of a gasoline vehicle. Perhaps if one is leasing a vehicle or buying and selling vehicles as often as you do, the maintenance issues don't present as much of a factor. I don't lease and I don't change cars that often. If I'm going to take on the complexity of an electric vehicle, I'm willing to go all the way, not a baby step that I will be selling off in 2-3 years.
So I'm doing the most environmental thing I can do: Not buying any new car, reducing my usage of my current vehicles whenever possible, and maintaining them for peak efficiency. My next vehicle will be BEV unless someone can convince me that hybrid is the best option.
Gr8 video Alex. What about the resources needed to mine materials for batteries and disposing dead batteries? No one is talking about the carbon footprints that process required.
Hasn't Toyota been saying this for a long time and getting crucified by the environmentalist community?
I'd find Toyota's position on this more credible if they actually sold a meaningful number of hybrids.
In 2020 Toyota released a press release patting themselves on the back for selling 15 million hybrids, total.
Then in 2021, Toyota sold 10.5 million vehicles....2.5 million of which were hybrids, meaning 25 years after their first Prius 75% of their new cars sold are ICE.
@@JamesR1986 I'm not a Toyota guy or anything, but I am going to defend Toyota here. You do have to remember that Toyota sells cars in a lot of countries other than the highly developed places like North America and Europe. In most places in the world, being cheap and being able to fix a car when it breaks matters. ICE is a highly commoditized technology where people know how to maintain an ICE. You throw in a battery with all the computing necessary to run hybrid / PHEV / electric cars, they become unmaintainable by the mom and pop mechanics outside NA, Europe, NE Asia, etc..
I am surprised that Toyota even sells 25% of their cars as hybrids.
@@joshuaychung I'm just sick of the whining and sick of the excuses. (I was reading an article this morning about how a group of locals helped to kill a windmill project in Lake Erie, so, full disclosure, I'm moody right now)
It's not like we haven't had decades of warning about global warming the need to electrify our economy, if we want to continue to live 1st world lives.
@@JamesR1986 Exactly, Toyota is acting like pushing more people to hybrids is better yet if that was the case wouldn’t their whole lineup be hybrid only now? At least in countries like the US, they’ve had the technology forever. Also, Toyota actively pushes back on any BEVs, they aren’t like Kia/Hyundai where they push hybrids and BEVs. If someone can afford to put a BEV in their life it’s the best option.
Great vid and I love how Alex taking different perspectives of things and EVs are just not going to suit everyone.
Plus we are human so Kumbaya moments are rare anyways lol
lol even in the substance use realm, I think good data to suggest a progressive reduction instead of cold turkey. Great overview of the issue and examples to support it.
That’s very rational. Very well considered and thought out. Much unlike many people’s car buying decisions. 😅🙈
I think in the US at least, we tend towards the one vehicle we can do everything we need conceivably, instead of the vehicle we NEED most of the time, and occasionally renting when you need more capability. There’s that rugged individualism negatively affecting us yet again. Also, there are a lot of people who get triggered by anything that is “regulation” in this country, and goodness sir, that sounds like a whole lot of (very reasonable and smart) regulation!🙈
Thank you for making this video. I've had a similar conversation with more "progressive" friends re: electric vehicles, and it blows my mind that people can't wrap their minds around the fact that between increased demand in resources / scarcity of batteries / general skepticism of all-electric vehicles, we're going to need to ease people into these more environmentally friendly (and in my opinion more exciting!) new electric offerings. Plug-ins make the most sense for me personally but normal hybrids are probably the best option for a lot of people.
One interesting topic of conversation that's never had, though, and that I personally would like to hear more talked about, is the "cost" of resource extraction to build a new hybrid / PHEV / full electric vehicle vs. driving a used gas vehicle. Sure, your emissions will be much lower with any of the non-ICE options, but this does NOT take into consideration resource extraction for manufacturing a new vehicle at all. Part of me wonders if driving gas-powered used cars into the ground is technically "greener" than buying new hybrids for everyone, as the used cars already exist in the world, so the resources / labor / capital has already been extracted. Would be interesting to see you attempt to run a comparison on driving used gas cars forever vs. buying new electric vehicles in "woo let's save the planet!" terms.
Very well said, Alex! As you mentioned, building 50 HEVs is better than 1 BEV. However, we have to keep in mind that not all manufacturers have the knowhow/technology/patents to build a hybrid vehicle that gets good gas mileage. Among mainstream manufacturers, Toyota, Ford, Honda and Hyundai/Kia have them. Nissan, Volkswagen, GM, Chrysler and Mazda don't have it. For a company which doesn't have the technology, I think it takes far more R&D time and money to design a hybrid/PHEV engine than it takes to design a BEV.
The battery scarcity argument is mostly coming from Japan and particularly from Toyota because that is true for them. If you ask China, there is no battery scarcity and you can see BEVs taking off like wildfire there. BEVs with great range are being sold at low costs in China, just look at BYD for example.
We had a Kia Niro PHEV, it was great in the summer got over 1000 miles per tank but in the winter range was cut in half to 500-600 miles. On ours it had to run the gas motor on and off all of the time in EV mode for heat since it had no heat pump or PTC heater. It would best suited to warmer climates. It also lacked power in EV mode and still needed the gas motor from time to time even in EV mode. The PHEV just didn't live upto it's expectations and later on we traded it in on an Ioniq 5 AWD and went with a full EV.
Hybrids can loose their value depending on use. I think the F150 Hybrid gets 4mpg better in the city but on the freeway numbers are the same as the gas only truck. So on average city / highway combined it only gains about 2mpg. Although with a very small 1.4kw battery it doesn't use much in the way of battery materials.
Battery prices should fall again once all the new factories start coming on line. Currently China is only the 3rd largest producer of lithium and we can get more than enough from friendlier countries while becoming China independent.
This is what Toyota has been trying to do but everyone thinks they are just being old-fashioned, get the general public and more people into hybrids saved the environment a lot more than just getting a fraction of people into EV's
The demand for EVs is increasing demand for batteries which is a good thing. Manufacturers won’t invest in increased production without lots of demand. I hope people keep buying EVs so demand stays high and battery production increases faster than if everyone was buying hybrid cars.
Right on!
Positively brilliant journalism, Alex! Such a sensible approach to a global issue. Keep up the great (and entertaining) work!
Makes sense to me
Great Analyse. Not to forget the CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the fact that the electricity is not 100 % green (about 60 % in my country). Furthermore we tend to produce bigger and bigger batteries to extend range, but except for some longer trips, most people drive about 35 miles per day which my 13 kWh battery can cover but they have to carry an up to 10 times heavier battery all the time. Driving a PHEV (Golf 8 GTE) since 2 years, I use 0.5 liter per 100 km as my daily commute (30 miles) is covered in full EV mode. This PHEV experience also convinced me to buy a BEV as next car, but I wish I could use a small battery for daily use and switch to a bigger one just for longer journeys (see NIO battery swap stations system). I know many people just buy PHEVs for tax advantages and quite never charge them, but if PHEVs can convince reluctant people to switch to an EV like it did for me and reduce gasoline consumption considerably, let's go. Thank you.
Fantastic. So happy you made this video. I have been preaching this for years.
I always enjoy your reviews and analysis, Alex! One thing I’d love to get your take on, especially related to this debate. Where does the new Nissan Qashqai Hybrid, whose sole purpose of the gasoline engine is to charge the battery pack to run the electric motors, fit into this, and why in the world would they stop selling the North American version, the Rogue Sport?! Of all the idiotic things to not offer us, this has to be at the top. In a time when EVs are gaining momentum, but still battling range and charging worries, you’d think this unique and seemingly brilliant alternative would sell like crazy here. On top of that, it’s a really sharp-looking, affordable small SUV, making it even more of a no-brainer! Do you have any insights on why Nissan has seemingly lost their senses, and any thoughts on how that setup could factor into this discussion?
Love my PHEV Chevy Volt. Best car ever. Only go to the gas station on long trips. At 10 cents a kWh, it’s 1/3 the cost of gas to run.
Our 2018 CT6 2.0E plug-in is definitely the sweet spot for daily driving.
It will be interesting to see how Toyota’s fleet emissions compare to other manufacturers over next few years. Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids, while others will sell comparatively small number of EVs. Which will have greatest emissions impact?
I agree with basically everything. I'm all aboard going to a all EV future but we are just not there yet in the next 5 years with all the supporting cast members. I think PHEV makes sense for a lot more people since they dont need 100KWh batteries 80% of the time for commuting, where as you can probably make another PHEV or 2 with those cells. I know a Hybrid feels like such a stop gap to have the complexity of both systems in the car but it can work very well.
I just watched a video of a guy in the Hybrid F150 basically hyper mile 800 miles out of a tank of gas with 300 miles being driven on electric, getting 28MPG in a full size truck. Bigger battery on there to recover even more energy with regen or while towing and you could squeeze out even more. The Lightning recovered something like 10-20KWh on the way down the Ike gauntlet on TFL's test. I think there is a lot of potential out there, and solid state batteries will just be able to fit more energy in less space and not wear out as quickly which is ideal for smaller battery hybrid.
Great video Alex! 👍🙂
Really sound argument Alex and I completely agree. I have a 2021 Honda Clarity and for the life of me I can’t understand why Honda dropped it from their lineup. It’s a great vehicle. With almost a 50 mile range, we rarely use the gas engine.
Volvo did an extensive study of CO2 emissions from their XC40 ICE versus EV version. What they found when you include emissions building the vehicles it currently takes 78,000 miles for the ICE to surpass the emissions of the EV with current average electric generation.
A strong hybrid XC40 would raise the crossover point considerably.
The above example assumes a 1:1 ICE:EV factor. That is in isolation. Given resources and capacity many more hybrids can be made for each EV.
@@mart0225 I agree the XC40 gets 25 mpg versus 40-50 for some hybrids.
Accentully you are restating Toyota's argument and I've come around to agree this point of view. Now I wish there were more HEV options. Looking forward to see gas mileage for CX90.
I’d add that manufacturers should also update or modify how their software regulates battery use on hybrid vehicles.
My current Toyota seems to do a great job using the battery to assist my ICE but it almost never meets their set threshold for pure electric driving even at low speeds.
I purchased my first EV when the eGolf came out. It was totaled by a texting driver and I needed something to fill the void with as much room - or better- that was way cheaper to purchase and operate. I picked up a hybrid Niro the second month it was out, it was $5,000 less new (and had way better range lol) and cost me a little more than that price difference over 5 years for gas, upkeep, etc. When I sold it, it had 85% brake life left, and only ever went into the dealer for the regular oil change. The IONIQ 5 that replaced it is a wonderful vehicle, but it's over twice as expensive.
There's just no more frugal choice, or better choice for the planet, than a used hybrid in terms of TCO!
This is a valid point, and I use the same arguments when talking to EV-extremists (a.k.a Tesla fanboys). However, except for Toyota, long term reliability on vehicles with added complexity of hybrid or PHEVs is a question many people ask. Over time, there are more parts that can fail compared to a normal ICE. EVs on the other hand are far better in that. Can powertrain warranty or hybrid warranty cover most of the items that are prone to failure long term? Not everyone wants a Toyota, but they may not want to adapt to a more complex tech which many manufactures are just getting onboard with, only to get surprise repair costs few years later. How do you deal with such an argument?