The Corona Economy with John B. Taylor
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- Опубликовано: 14 июл 2024
- Recorded on March 25, 2020
In this first of a new series of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson conversations done via webcam, Peter Robinson talks to John B. Taylor, the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics. They discuss the huge impact of the COVID-19 virus on the US and world economy, the likely impact of the federal government's multitrillion-dollar relief efforts, and what the economy might look like as we get to the other side of this crisis.
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I work in a restaurant that is an actual historical landmark. You two may have heard of it. It’s called the Moss Beach Distillery in Moss Beach, CA. I burst into tears today too. I’m the bookkeeper. I have been the bookkeeper there for 18 years. I can’t even pay PG&E for the first time ever. We already laid of 90% off our staff.
I love listening to your interviews Peter. Thank you. Think I’ll go now before I burst into tears again.
Susan B The food service industry is going to be very badly hit. From the fears of contaminating the food, to social distancing, to never having volume again to sustain itself. Robotics will play a very big part in that Industry.
Thank you Peter and John for getting this out. It's much appreciated.
Hoover Institution has changed my life. Peter Robinson has taught me not only crucial economic and governmental principles, but how to better communicate and elucidate information from my peers. From Friedman and Sowell to John Stossel, from Davis Hanson to Scalia, plus all of Peter’s other fellow Hoover Institution fellows and guests. It is the best wealth of information on the internet.
However, there is a key pillar of the conservative base that is all too often being missed in Uncommon Knowledge (though VDH, Kellyanne Conway, and JD Vance sometimes touch upon it). I think the most important leader of this pillar is probably Tucker Carlson. His ratings are absolutely through the roof, particularly with young people, such as myself who is 27. He is essentially a Steve Brannon-esque populist figure (although he does often acknowledge the risks of populism unlike Bannon.) I really enjoy Tucker’s show, and I think he does speak on behalf of a "forgotten" portion of America. He resonates with me. Even though I understand that some of "his" underlying arguments are misguided, perhaps flat out wrong, I also think that sometimes the "chamber of commerce" portion of the right wing tend to minimize the effects of outsourcing/globalization and treat that trend like an inevitability rather than a choice.
To really be on the cutting edge of what is "uncommon knowledge" I think you need to get Tucker on the show.
I am a huge fan, and I enjoyed the show as always. Thanks for putting out this content during these trying times.
Thank you for doing an episode of Uncommon Knowledge like this. It is critical, and doesn't require a book to review!!
My, how things have changed in just a few days. The President's address this evening reflects the impact of the health threat rising above the economic threat. It seems that the prediction in loss of lives has tipped the scales. I cannot imagine what else people will do with the money they get besides buy things. We are consumers, after all. I just hope that they honor the rules of social distancing, etc. so that the curve begins and continues to dip. Thank you for this vlog post, Mr Robinson and Taylor.
Mr. Robinson, I've watched, enjoyed and benefited from the many UncKnowledge interviews you've moderated. Thank you. That you're continuing valuable, relevant conversations despite uncommon times is testament to your commitment to education through exploration and discussion. Please continue your public service as long as possible/practical. Best regard to you/yours.
Peter Robinson is the best interviewer ever!
Peter Robinson is a great interviewer - he takes the step into online interviews with aplomb and the usual gusto, humour and incisive questions - and of course listening.
Edit : And a nice, sound, positive message from John B. Taylor
Thanks guys
Excellent interview. Thanks for posting this so quickly. Stay safe.
Great professor! Felt lucky to have him as my econ 101 professor.
Mr. Robinson, thank-you for preparing and sharing this video.
Thank you for carrying on under such exceptional circumstances.
At the 25:00 mark the word “Impetus” was utilized by esteemed guest John Taylor to describe the spark the economy and markets so need to thrive again. I would like to pose the question did the Corona virus expose the ailing economy and is it not being used as “catalyst” for the ailing economic growth through “automation” which is part of the new 4th industrial revolution that upon us and forcing us to transition?Unfortunately the government isn’t articulating this very well so that why I enjoy these conversations.
Many Blessings and Thank you Peter Robinson and Uncommon Knowledge. Long time supporter 🙏🏽✨📚🍎
The reason the people did not spend is they paid their house back payments, rent, utilities, and groceries, and still ended up loosing thier homes anyway.
Peter, your show is the best, true to the point, you give everyone the benefit of the doubt, great quests also. Thank you.
End The Fed
Surely a little computing technology could have put the old Uncommon Knowledge backdrop on our screens 🤔
What Peter says twenty minutes in is spot on. Doctors see 'A World as Medicine' - WHAT IS (and then of necessity exquisitely limited to their one limited and also often isolated Specialization); Businessmen see 'A World as Whole', WHAT TO DO ABOUT WHAT IS (and then diversified to span the entire Market in which it operates - including Medicine). The one Specialization by definition has a limited view; the other, an overview. The President MAY NOT allow the livelihoods of hundreds of millions to be destroyed on one limited Specialization. Since Classic Conservatism in Britain is clearly and increasingly falling to Authoritarianism my hope is on Americans, that group of the economy to whom Peter refers as 'The Worker' and its echoing answer, those few Men of Reason in the 'Financial World'. You MAY NOT allow your lives to be destroyed and your Freedom to be taken from you so freely. Your Founding Fathers are turning in their graves!
Good Job, Peter, John
...I have been listening to wise and educated people over the last month as they speculate about the how and why of our economy as it is being stressed by an interruption of full production
...at a full pace, the economy pits value against cash-flow and capital accumulation on paper without noting the time value of money as it accumulates at a steady pace, no matter what
...then 'organic chemistry' is accounted for (pain, suffering, and psychological damage)
...The problem with this comprehensive analysis is that one doesn't establish a 'base capacity' of either side
...Take insurance as an example
...The people that have to file for unemployment insurance are counted and analyzed as to cost but never as to time and the lag period for compensation
...imagine every 'Insurance Entity' protecting itself into infinity by declining all claims
...even if they admit that they owe, but cannot pay a certain amount
...will the recipients be able to save their home from foreclosure as they fail payments over and over in favor of food and gas for their car
...The 'Economy' has always operated around time and timeliness with insurance taking up the slack (allegorically)
...in reality, every person experiences a failure (uncompensated) several times in their life
...When you have the system failing everyone (as it seems to be now) at once ...Pandora's Box (Paradox) it cannot recover TRUST (hard-won, easily lost...forever) and chaos takes the lead as inflation kills value in short order
...then humanity is on the 'Food Standard' ...again "Will Work for Food"
...Now, add in the 'Medical Component' for a relentless demise of civilization and a rise in desperation and no quantitative easing (on paper) will cover it (historically speaking)
recovery will occur as soon as the threat/fear of the virus is over and the feds step back and let the free market do its thing.
Just read David Rockerfellers quotes just a few on them,,, then read www.slideshare.net/workingwikily/gbnrockefeller-scenarios-on-technology-development and you know exectly what is going on at persent If you want any more evidance look up Aaron Russo on utube,,, you don't need any more.
Fully agree. Thank you for sharing!
Thanks John and Peter.
Peters interviews are fantastic but special kudos for doing this one to address such an immediately arresting issue. Stay well and do more. Many thanks from a neighbour north of the border.
If this series was a video game, this would be a bonus unlockable video
Great advice. We need to keep the wheels of the economy going. Let us support our local businesses, restaurants, take outs, etc. Let us make a real difference with the stimulus money
19:24 - 22:00 is spot on!!! 🔥
Good job on your internet interview production. Lighting and sound were not distracting which is the most common challenge you tubers seem to have. Good content as well.
Trying to make sense and predictions for, the 'science' of economics and the communication 'skills' of our President. Good luck gentlemen. Enjoyed the effort given though. Keep the Uncommon coming, be safe be well.
Perhaps we will stop having so many unjustified "no home based businesses" zones and rigid business category zones that restrict creative new business types?
Interviews such as yours, are essential; you should meet in person sitting at a six foot table.
Thank you for another excellent discussion. I appreciate the information esp being trapped at home.
"A few people reading the bill---probably not many in congress" Sadly, true for almost all bills.
For any small business to get a PPP check, the banks are requiring you have a business account with their bank.
Wrong as it may be a lot of small business owners do not have business bank accounts as they usually cost more one way or another.
None of these people were ever given access to PPP money.
I treasure Peter's work and don't mean to be a jerk, but for Mr Taylor to suggest (former) working class people use their $1200 check to buy an exercise bike is a bit outrageous. No, we'll be using that money to buy heating fuel, food, car repairs etc--you know, that pedestrian stuff us regular people have to concern ourselves with, regardless of how much we'd like to stimulate Wall Street's economy. This is the kind of disconnected elitism that results in the '08 bailout, 30k to performing arts centers etc. I'm sure Mr Taylor is a nice guy, but come hang out with us once and a while and see what this 2 trillion giveaway looks like from our $1200 perspective. Sorry if any of that is unfair. Keep at it Peter, you are a blessing.
Thank you! I wish we put the business people and the Economist to the same rigorous test to integrate other externalities into their decision making, once this crises is over. It’s very interesting to see how quickly we are holding the Public Health officials to account! We never think of how the scientists might be feeling (in ok times) when the system does not take into account the issues they raise that we don’t understand.
When I spend now, I have nothing for later. Bills come every month and when there is uncertainty it is stupid to buy a washing machine instead of food. Smart people will not spend that money. The only one increasing the money supply and thus devaluing it is government. This is the reason we have a huge federal growing debt. Where is this money coming from??? How much will this increase the federal debt?????
The Dow went down about 10,400 points from February 21 to the recent low, and has come up about 3,600 points since that time. However, this seems to be more of a bump that helps Wall Street than Main Street. Isn't it possible that the usual Keynesian Monetary and Fiscal policy is mainly helping the rich rather than the poor? The 1200 per working person one-time handout adds up to about an eighth of the 2 trillion spending package.
You can't compare 9/11 with this virus. The aftermath of 9/11 did not kill anyone. This virus is killing thousands. It has already killed more than the 9/11 attacks.
why so few comments, are they being deleted
I would love to order take out but I don’t have a job anymore because my employer was shut down. How can I spend money I don’t have?
It's April 6 and the Gov. of Georgia issued a stay at home order but reopened beaches "for the economy." He seemingly doesn't acknowledge the repercussions of beach traffic in Florida or the festival in New Orleans. For the next two to three months we need to be careful about doing things for the economy that have the opposite positive impact for health and the economy longer term.
Chris Record I think, as terrible as this may sound, that Americans need to get out there and mingle about, Americans need to feel the power of their decisions as far as starting up the country again. Hey, if there is a reflash, will all crawl back into our homes and thank God you survived and crack on.
Encourage people to buy on line? Further concentrating power in Amazon while small business will be destroyed.
“Take advantage of the extra money you are getting .” This guy is CLUELESS. The money from the government is not “extra.” People are hurting. They are not working.
We are now approaching 42,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US and have several more weeks left in April.
where are all the comments???????
Dollars are not money, they are currency
Do you part people! Order some takeout!
Get your local pizza!
Get your Red Robin burgers for pickup. Support your favorite Restaurant!
This is hurting my daughter and her family both have been laid off wording how to pay bills this is not what they want both hard working married one child who is 3 and 27, 30 they have been doing everything right. If the elderly which I'm 63 are the risky ones that were doing this for I for one would take the greater risk so my daughter could continue to have a great life, if it's for me to die so there life is free of stress then Lord take me now .
if you own a restaurant, that can do takeout, best thing you could do is try to publicize how you are going to ensure you will not contaminate the food. what ppe you will wear etc.
jon b I’ve been a baker and a cook all my life. It’s the only professions that use all 5 senses. A cook or baker cannot wear a mask and do their job properly. Now if you want assuredness of non contaminated food, then what you are wanting is the use of robotics for the food service industry. That’s a PANDORA BOX, be careful what you wish for.
THE SUPREME COURT MUST STEP IN TO PROTECT THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS OF ALL AMERICANS; THE CONSTITUTION GUARANTEES A REPUBLICAN FORM OF GOVERNMENT TO ALL STATES ARTICLE III. SECTION 4.
PRESIDENT FDR'S NRA ACT IS CLEARLY THE SAME CASE AND THE COURT STRUCK IT DOWN.
The powers granted under the state of emergency do not include circumvention of the SUPREMACY CLAUSE OF THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION.
Nice
Wealth and power are being consolidated. That's your problem
Those walking around the hospitals in N Y find no traffic..no ambulances sirens no lines
Inflation is never the answer
If "needed" funds are mostly put into savings accounts and such, how could they have been "needed"?
Sounds like we’re screwed.
Bring in Sowell please
Please bring back Thomas Sowell
What will? How about the reps protect our rights, and we will handle the rest.
You need glasses with no glare if you are to continue these podcasts, its 101.
I remember GW Bush telling people to go shopping. Obviously it didn't work then and it won't work now. This guy has little info to provide other than, we don't know and maybe that's a good idea.
give it a week or two and youll be glad there is restrictions this strong.
Respectfully, we’re in a recession and this guy recommends we order Teslas online? We’re in this financial mess because we’ve been borrowing and spending way beyond our means for way too long. The solution is not to continue spending ourselves into oblivion.
Establish a free tax day; a Black Friday; Christmas in July. The depletion of inventories will spur replacement production. Encourage new ventures in online distribution.
GOD BLESS AMERICA; PLEASE!!!!
1 Saint John 4:20
If any man say: I love God, and hateth his brother; he is a liar. For he that loveth not his brother whom he seeth, how can he love God whom he seeth not?
“We in the United States, above all, must remember that lesson, for we were founded as a nation of openness to people of all beliefs. And so we must remain. Our very unity has been strengthened by our pluralism. We establish no religion in this country, we command no worship, we mandate no belief, nor will we ever. Church and state are, and must remain, separate. All are free to believe or not believe, all are free to practice a faith or not, and those who believe are free, and should be free, to speak of and act on their belief.”
“At the same time that our Constitution prohibits state establishment of religion, it protects the free exercise of all religions. And walking this fine line requires government to be strictly neutral. And government should not make it more difficult for Christians, Jews, Muslims, or other believing people to practice their faith.”
“And there's something else. The ideals of our country leave no room whatsoever for intolerance, for anti-Semitism, or for bigotry of any kind -- none. In Dallas, we acted on this conviction. We passed a resolution concerning anti-Semitism and disassociating the Republic[an] Party from all people and groups who practice bigotry in any form. But in San Francisco this year, the Democratic Party couldn't find the moral courage or leadership to pass a similar resolution. And, forgive me, but I think they owe you an explanation.”
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN
October 26, 1984
There is a reason why the call it "debasing"
I am only USD 3,600 away from my Tesla!
How about the leichester method- quarantine the sick n their immediate close contacts - Let the rest take their chances
Hyperinflation coming soon to create one world currency. This is called strategic planning. Say goodbye to pensions and 401k.
Ordering take out when you are not earning money is not a wise use of resources. Everyone is in the same position. No earnings. Stimulus will not stimulate.
Flatten the corono economic curve.....
A whole society duped...
Let the hunger games begin...
Does this guy know anything about economics..?
Milton Friedman said it himself that spending doesn't stimulate the economy. .. It's productivity!
We don't need jobs... We need productive jobs
Wrong, spending a lot of money isn't good for our future. You should know better.
Trust this guy from one of the Bush eras? Not me.
Please stop playing the so-called layman card. What sort of layman are you trying to play.
oh please have some sage wisdom from thomas sowell
The treatment is worse than the disease. This is a modern version of bloodletting; superstition and all.
six feet apart or risk six feet under
People are gonna buy more toilet papers thus stimulating the economy
Wow this man has no interest in helping the economy for the general public. If people don’t have jobs or income they can’t spend money. They need to pay their rent or mortgage before they can buy take out. I don’t think he gets how many business may close and people will loose there jobs or 0 hour contractors won’t have work.
Or maybe just live healthy and do your own food
The introductions are generally too long and awfully self congratulatory. Get on with the talk.
No no no...dont go and spend your money on an exercise bike. You'll need that for something like food.
Spend spend spend, yikes.
Will you just let the man talk!
To the host: i don't understand why you seem to think you don't know what you are doing. You have one of the most intelligent interviews and guests. Maybe you're just being overly modest? -:p
Hmmm...
Have your family help you out on the lighting, it will take a day or so to try several different ways of your illumination, people here on youtube will crab about everything. Just an fyi
Trump promoting online buying and Amazon? Not in a hundred years
PAT PEOPLE IN GIFT CARDS TO KEEP THE CASH FLOWING!
Another Keynesian who thinks the Fed is a good idea.... Talk to an Austrian who can actually explain why this situation is so bad economically.
Capitalism is awesome! As long as it's bailed out by socialism every ten years.
First
test
Man, this one won't age well.