2023 Oscar Predictions - Best Picture | November
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I do think the Oscars will nominate an international movie, they've been doing for a few years and I can see "All Quiet on the Western Front" getting it
Or Decision to Leave
RRR too it amazing movie
I'm hoping for Triangle of Sadness
Is aftersun international?
@@RareCinephile no. To be eligible for International Film, over half of the film has to be in a language other than English.
I will audibly squeal in joy in my living room if Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio makes it to a Best Picture nom, especially because it's one of his passion projects and my most anticipated movie of the year. But I wish Netflix could give us a taste of the original songs that'll be in the movie, one of which will be called "Ciao, Papa" and IS ALREADY NOMINATED for a Hollywood Music in Media Award, along with Best Score and Best Musical Film.
Frfr, why hasn't that score/soundtrack been released on spotify yet. Driving me crazy lol
I think I have to say Pinocchio makes it in, entirely because I am a lifelong animation junkie and if I didn’t predict it (then it actually makes it in) I would be really embarrassed - like you said, I think Avatar is #9 and Pinocchio is #10 (and we’re gonna keep an eye out on Aftersun pulling a CODA)
No.9 and 10 could be All Quiet on the Western Front and Avatar : The Way of Water.
If All Quiet on the Western Front gets nominated I´d be over the moon but I´m already excited for Top Gun: Maverick and Banshees of Inisherin getting in so I feel like Im asking for too much
I wonder Black Panther 2's less-than-stellar reception opens the door for The Woman King to get nominated. Especially since that's going to look like the far better African warrior epic by comparison to the Marvel product.
I think All Quiet is higher than 17. Could get so many technicals... Nightmare Alley only got technicals...
My personal choice would be Pearl (obviously has no real chance). My second favorite was Tar (which I’m hoping does win). I thought it was significantly more convincing (not “realistic”, but convincing that it is talking about reality) than either Banshees or Women Talking (the other real competitors I’ve seen). Women Talking was good (and should win screenplay for the dialogue), but not really cinematic. I was actually disappointed by Banshees; it had great acting, but I just didn’t buy the storytelling.
Horrible choice awful movie X was better Pearl is dreadful
What about All Quiet on the Western Front for Netflix best picture and international film? Also do you think they will nominate one African American film for best picture? I’m thinking Woman King or Till. I feel like if they don’t nominate an African American film that will be the main story/scandal
Woman King deserves the nomination imo.
To the Indians screaming "RRR Wasn't nominated because of politics" are so delusional. Why do yall love to bring politics into everywhere.
India has submitted 55 films throughout the years (33 Hindi) (10 Tamil) (3 Malyalam) (3 Marathi) (2 Bengali) (2 Gujarati) (1 Telugu) (1 Assamese)
Now suddenly only this year its politics?? What about last year when a Tamil film was submitted by India or the year before that when a Malyalam film was submitted? Where was the outrage then?
Decision to Leave is my favourite film of the year so hoping it can squeeze in at #10
It's in my top 2 right now, I'm hoping it'll at least be like Drive My Car and get best picture and international feature nominations.
I think all quiet on the western front makes it into picture
3 international films are in contention. I think academy should give the best international feature to All Quiet on the eastern front. They should nominate decision to leave director for Best director. & They should nominate RRR into the Best Picture. That's how they can recognise all three
Best Picture:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Women Talking
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Babylon
5. TAR
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Pinocchio (Netflix)
Please you guys need to EEAAO off that first place you guys jinx it every year😭
18:07 peak Elvis impression
People keep thinking and talking about “favorite” film when the title of the awards says it: Best Picture. Two completely different things.
I honestly think Top Gun: Maverick has a better chance of winning than people are giving it credit for
I see Tom Cruise winning Best Actor over Brendan Fraiser. Cruise has 3 nominations no win, biggest movie of the year, great performance, and way more passion than anyone towards The Whale
I could honestly see it winning the Golden Globe Drama (Bohemian Rhapsody style)
@@seankoontz4235 there's more love for Elvis than there is the Whale. I just don't see Bremdan Frasier winning
@@SoulKnightKing do you think teller could get in if maverick over performs
@@slimnave4846 the first avatar won Gg drama and director
Justin trying to describe ELVIS.... I laughed so hard I cried
At this point, I wouldn't put EEAAO at the top of my list but you know what they say: "go hard or go home." I think it's main obstacle will be the preferential ballot 🗳️
Aftersun gets my BP vote. A truly wonderful movie, though some may not find it “accessible” as it does require paging attention to small details to really appreciate its full impact
Everything Everywhere all at once will NOT win Best Picture!
Agreed
Same here. We all love it but that doesn't mean that the Academy voters will do the same.
Yes I hope so
I think that EEAAO is not a best picture winner. It’s divisive. I’m an older movie goer. I did NOT like it at all. You young guys are stuck on this. I guess you need to stir up some competition to keep people listening to you. But this year when I,look at the contenders, the “ message” film that the academy looks for is Women Talking. That is the only film that can take down The Fablemans.
My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 11.11):
10. The Whale
9. Babylon
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. TÁR
5. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Everything Everyewhere All at Once
2. Women Talking
1. The Fabelmans
The Woman King is my clear 11. I had it on there as soon as a few days ago, but I just feel it didn't stay enough in the conversation to contend against the other large scale blockbusters, which are having a very good year in the awards scene. Elvis is my 12 but I also feel that it's a bit too mainstream-leaning to compete in this year's crop. These are the only 2 movies I think are right on The Whale's tail (no pun intended). Here are some other top contenders and why I think their chances are slimmer:
13. Till: has better chances than people are thinking but unlikely to overcome the "small" and "downer" stigmas.
14. Decision to Leave: All Quiet seems to have claimed the token international movie spot, but don't count this one out entirely.
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: the reviews actually made me lose what little hope I had. Most notably, this movie's not gonna be able to compete with the other strong mainstream blockbusters of the year. This is not this year's Black Panther, Top Gun: Maverick is.
16. Aftersun: I have it as my 5 in Original Screenplay but it'll have to tough a job trying to sneak into here.
17. Triangle of Sadness: the 73% and the lack of other nominations will put this movie's hopes to bed.
18. She Said: nobody wants to see a Harvey Weinstein movie, and even less people than that want to see another generic investigative journalism movie. Still putting it in for Adapted Screenplay though, if only because of the barren wasteland going on there.
19. Pinnocchio (Del Toro): Soul being robbed of an Original Screenplay nomination shows that the Academy had lost what little respect for animation it had between 1991-2016, which already was less than they should've.
20. Empire of Light: if any Rotten movie has a chance it's this one, but I think this year The Whale is gonna take the Don't Look Up slot.
21. Glass Onion: a sequel to a movie that wasn't nominated won't be nominated unless it's much better recieved. It's math.
22. Bardo: weird, bad and international is a terrible combination. Not counting on the recut either.
23. White Noise: nobody seems to push for this.
24. Emancipation: pfffffffffft.
25. RRR: only on here because I wanted a number that divisible by 5 and I wouldn't put The Son on here if the well being of my penis depended on it.
Any other movie, I won't respect with a comment at this time.
Wakanda Forever is more an MCU sequel than a Coogler superhero movie sadly 😢
@@jenniferariesta6464 I'd love that to happen because I love the MCU and I was thrilled when the 1st one was nominated, but sadly it doesn't seem to be in the cards for this sequel. In all fairness I haven't seen it yet but I'm planning to do so in theaters.
I absolutely agree that GDT's Pinocchio feels like the missing 5th slot in Adapted Screenplay. I never really bought that Top Gun could get in.
It's unfortunate to see how one of the best made if not the best-made movies TAR being relegated to the bottom tier just because it's not pandering to the masses. The good thing is Blanchett will win Oscar for a masterful performance.
I disliked Tar and loved Field’s previous two films.
I could see the academy go for deadwiyler or cate but also we still need to see Robbie in Babylon
Personally, I would like to see top gun. Maverick win best picture but that’s not gonna happen.
I wish EEAAO win many awards 🥰😘❤️
I don’t
@@taitavrit664 who cares 👍
@@mr.introvert6173 You will when EEAAO either walks away empty handed, or wins only supporting actor and that’s it
@@taitavrit664 It's the most diverse movie and the American award circuit favours that currently. You're crazy if you think it'll get one win. At the very least it'll win supporting actor and editing. More than likely screenplay too and maybe best picture.
If you think A24, the worst distributor in terms of awards campaign, is going to have 2 movies in Best Picture you're dead wrong sorry
#RRRForOSCARS
dk why but i have a weird feeling banshees could grow through the year and sneak a best picture win after it wins it at bafta, mainly just cus nothing else really feels right
Me: want to watch Double Indemnity right now
The Oscar Expert: Releases 2023 Oscar predictions
Me: Fuck!!!
I really enjoy your in depth yet clear film talk. Did you take film courses in college or are you self-taught?
I believe they've mentioned going to film school before, at least one of them does/did.
Yeah, in their first Q&A they both said they went to film school.
Honestly think The Banshees of Inisherin has a shot at winning, considering how everybody loves it, and would be a movie that everyone could get behind. I mean all it would need is an acting and screenplay package, witch isn't out the question
I can't see it winning Original screenplay tho
I agree. I think it's being wildly underestimated given the glowing reviews.
Honestly it's crazy too think that the first animation stdio not a Disney subsidiary to have a shot at best picture would be the studio who made Sid the Science Kid and Dinosaur Train
This year’s best film thus far is RRR and its country won’t even admit it 😬
Yeah. This is so sad
delusional
Fablemans have a better chance to win best picture than everything everywhere all at once
I agree, but parasite winnning over 1917 meant a turning point for a reason.
@@ChrolliForever but it would be unlikely for this upcoming Oscars because eeaao came out too early in the year
@@nathantucker8489 indeed, but look at silence of the lambs. Its possible. And a real best picture winner should stood the test of time.
@@ChrolliForever only time will tell
Brother Bro, your hair is looking 🔥🔥🔥! Love it!! Keep it growing. Sorry to be so superficial, but, oh, well…🤣
A24 will so not get two Best Picture nominations in one year. The Whale is not happening.
I've literally posted the same comment on this channel since the first prediction. Let me repeat "Don't underestimate James Cameron." Glad it took a trailer for people to understand. Watch out for Avatar 2. Don't think it'll win BP, but it'll be a huge thing below the line and a BP nomination. Hell, could Cameron shock with a BD nomination?
i wouldn’t take banshees seriously for the win, it’s not the winning type… you can say it could defy that but it won’t, it has no bigger picture message or that fabelmans nostalgia/film about the industry thing going for it
Neither was Coda
@@magmahotdesigns erm CODA absolutely did? a film that let deaf actors portray and represent deaf roles, had a message about communication… by bigger picture messages i mean this. a lot of reviews mentioned representation and highlighting the fact that it embraces deaf culture. awarding coda is the acknowledgment of this.
These two consider Letterboxd scores as if the Oscars are voted for by Gen Z 😭
underrating women talking way too much
my Oscars 2023 Best Picture predictions (November 2022):
top 10:
Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
The Whale (A24)
Women Talking (Orion Pictures/MGM)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney-Marvel Studios)
All Quiet On The Western Front (Netflix)
The Woman King (Sony-TriStar)
The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Pinocchio (Netflix)
Decision To Leave (Mubi)
I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony Pictures-Columbia)
next-in-line:
The Banshees Of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Tár (Focus Features)
Aftersun (A24)
Triangle Of Sadness (Neon)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Avatar: The Way Of Water (20th Century Studios)
Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (A24)
Turning Red (Disney-Pixar)
Wait Till RRR bags some Oscars
After hearing the two tracks released today, Babylon is winning score
Where is Thomas Newman? He needs to win so badly.
I came here just to hear you guys talk about Babylon and was disappointed :(
Top Gun should win best picture, everyone enjoyed it and it made a cash load at the box office. Crowning Tom Cruise best picture would be a great moment for Hollywood
Not everyone enjoyed it. That’s like saying everyone enjoyed the last Spider-Man, etc. Many people did, but plenty of people were not and are not fans of that type of film. It still could win tho, it’s still a very Hollywood type of film. Haha
The visuals are great, but the story....seriously? The original had the same problem.
Best movies i have seen this year in no particular order:
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
RRR
All Quiet on the Western Front
Triangle of Sadness
The Banshees of Inisherin
I think one of these movies should win the best picture. I do think Triangle of Sadness has no chance of getting nominated much less winning. It is very low in rotten tomatoes.
I think The batman deserves to be in Top 25 at least
How abt Indian Film RRR, directed by SS Rajamouli. This film submitted its nominations to oscar 23
"Bill Nighy is not even that big of an actor" damn maybe I don't believe in free speech after all.
Seeing the Fablemans on Thanksgiving day
18:06
Good out of context bit
RRR🔥🤩😍✨
EEAAO overrated movie of the year
If Black Panther gets in and The Batman doesn't, I'm gonna scream.
This may be a dumb question but why isn't Avatar considered an animated movie in the vein of Polar Express/Christmas Carol? I know this might be a stretch but like...
Cause there are live action sequences
It’s not.
avatar triangle of sadness and pinocchio
You guys need to switch The fablemans with everything everywhere
Seriously lol
Would love if after all this Top Gun just ends up winning lol. Would love to see the reactions.
I feel like She Said makes sense to have at 9 or 10 now. Screenplay is in, Mulligan could easily be in. That’s a great combo to have. Hear it played so well at AFI too. It could also really hit home for the Academy.
The trouble is that those two are the only categories it's competing in right now.
@@oskari7121 Yeah but for a 9 or 10th slot that’s pretty good.
My only worry is the Brad Pitt drama. But I also think a lot of people will nominate it without even knowing Brad Pitt produced it... But I still have it low in my 10
I'm waiting for the full Oscar Predictions video at the end of November.
I'm going bold with my predictions by putting Bardo in there. I don't think it's getting nominated, but it's 1/100 on GoldDerby and it still has a decent enough shot (Academy loves Innaritu and it's been performing a lot better lately than it did at Venice), so if it happens to somehow squeeze in I'll get it on good odds.
18:07 there's a moment every video where I realize exactly why im watching this channel
I think there's a genuine chance that TGM could win Best Picture
What? Never
agreed!!! sometimes it just works out for the film that everyone loves and I think that it genuinely could.
How people still hype up The Batman is tragic and hilarious at the same time 🤡
"maybe even editing...on the scariest day"
Yes been waiting for this for a while just saw banshees Armageddon time decision to leave about to see after sun later today
I think Netflix throw all the chips into all quiet
i really hope Aftersun get oscar love because i loved it
Curious - why leave in WOMEN TALKING when beloved recent films like MASS + ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI couldn't get in, or hardly score any nominations? (same kinda situation: takes place in singular/limited confined space + important subject matter (school mass shootings/gun violence | race relations during civil rights, etc.). With so many people complaining about the color grading as well - what makes WT different than those other two to firmly hold a high ranking?
Other tidbits I think about:
TAR might be this year's FOXCATCHER (gets big noms but left out of picture because too brooding/cold about a niche profession)
TILL could be this year's SELMA (the sentimentality angle with an even more noteworthy lead performance about USA's past)
WAKANDA 4EVER - although the critics scores are coming in much lower than first, audience scores are significantly higher as of 11/12. Could it be the LORD OF THE RINGS of superhero movies for the Oscars, assuming Coogler takes on a 3rd and makes that his magnum opus?
Love the channel!
Women Talking is way better than those two films in every aspect. Also is way more relevant and urgent than them.
@@pb.j.1753 Interesting. I haven't seen it yet but plan to. Just curious - what makes you believe it is "more relevant and urgent” than the other two? I agree the theme is important, but what makes it more important?
Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front were honestly really underwhelming to me. All Quiet especially seems like such a generic movie to get the international push above options like Decision to Leave and Close.
I need Close and Aftersun to at least get a nom!
My predictions:
1- Babylon
2- The Fablemans
3- The Banshees of Inisherin
4- Top Gun Maverick
5- Evereything Everywhere all at Once
6- Woman Talking
7- TAR
8- The Whale
9- She Said
10- Avatar
Everywhere is really bad shouldn't be on that list. Top Gun Maverick is the #1
I don't see The Whale getting enough gas from A24 to get to Best Picture with all the different categories EEAAO is being regarded to already.
I'd say
1 - EEAAO
2 - The Fabelmans
3 - The Banshees of Inisherin
4 - Babylon
5 - TÁR
6 - Top gun: Maverick
7 - Women Talking
8 - Triangle of Sadness
9 - All Quiet on the Western Front (I don't think Netflix will let this one slip, it's their only shot for Best Picture this year)
10 - Avatar: The Way of the Water
Banshees will win I think. I mean fabelmans is this years Irishman, Mank, and First Man...... Banshees reminds me of spotlight or Greenbook.... aka the screenplay award, which has been winning the best picture way more than directing, or just applause politics at a previous award show like Coda or parasite but that hasnt happened yet
Rocketman was better than Elvis and got whacked with a single Song nomination
But Austin Butler is definitely getting into Actor this year whereas Egerton couldn't make it in even with great reviews. There's a significant correlation between Best Actor nominees and their films getting into Picture. That helps a lot.
@@KW-vy1rf Yes its quite crazy Taron didn’t get in with a Golden Globe win (over Leo Dicaprio) + SAG & BAFTA nominations
Emancipation will pay for the sins of Anton fuqua's Infinite. An embarrassing result for the director of Training Day
My main hesitation for The Whale - is A24 willing to push two films for Best Picture?
A24 couldn’t even put together a competent poster for The Whale I doubt they can put together an additional bp campaign with how much $$$ they’re pouring into EEAAO
I don't think anyone has The Whale on the radar for best picture. It might get a nomination, but it isn't much worth campaigning for beyond Brendan's performance.
I really don’t see EEAAO taking it
The Oscar Expert: Women Talking might win Best Original Score…
BABYLON: Hold My Booze
Why isn't All Quiet on the Western Front in the f*ckbasket??
I am hoping for The Fabelmans, She Said or Women Talking to win best picture.
She Said? That's a wild pick
@@lila2029 I guess we will see. Either way, looking forward to seeing the movie.
@@tonyg76 Why are you rooting for a movie you haven't even seen to win Best Picture?
@@thefilmseeker Good question. I guess I am hoping they are best picture quality when I see them. Mostly, I am saying the movies I have seen so far are not best picture winners at least in my opinion. These are TAR, Top Gun:Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
@@tonyg76 Fair enough, I suppose. All I can say is that She Said looks extremely mediocre for my tastes and Women Talking, which I have seen, was surprisingly underwhelming.
Does Top Gun: Maverick have a chance at winning Best Picture?
With Banshees being my favorite film of the year, I would love for that film to sneak up and snag best picture personally.
Nevertheless I know there's ppl here that would still eat up feature lenght prediction videos, guys.
All Quiet on the Western Front is definitely getting in Best Picture
Naomi Ackie should get an Oscar nomination for her role in the Whitney biopic.
Her acting is SUPERB in the film.
the exception of Everything Everywhere All At Once the rest are all white films..
Elvis is not best picture worthy. I really hope some others pull ahead and it gets the Judy treatment
*YOU DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG I’VE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS.*
I think RRR should be the the Oscar ceremony's next Parasite.
Thanks for introducing me to the new word 'fuck-basket'
If you ever need to do separate prediction videos l suggest you guys do acting categories and then below the line? You guys doing a separate Golden Globes vid later in the month maybe?
I put this on as background noise while taking a nap and I'm happy to say your BP predictions sent me into a pleasant sleep!
"Everything Everywhere All at Once is too explainy" said the same old fogies who would be completely lost on a movie like this without any exposition
Could avatar the way of water upset and win ?
I think The Fablemans is a good film but not the best picture. I feel like people are waiting for THE film that they really like. So, I guess TBOI and EEAAO might have a shot.
Avatar: The Way of Water is a lock for best picture
That Elvis reenactment was hilarious!