Don't watch this. My complete speculation on Aptera's funding needs.
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- Опубликовано: 28 апр 2024
- Aptera is going to need a lot more money than I think a lot of us are thinking. We're not home free after $60 million.
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There is a biblical story about later vineyard workers getting a better deal than the earlier ones. Not a great analogy, but useful. Most of us who have invested a limited amount mostly just wanted the company to survive and our cars to show up in the driveway. Not a big deal if others make more money, if their money assures production. Two important "ifs".
Love the analogy
Well said. We’re ok with dilution if it results in getting us to production, it’s a sacrifice we have to be willing to accept.
I agree completely that this isn't a big issue for me. Being an early investor is a risk and I fully expect them to try to bring in additional funds, at least $75M. But I expect them to get to profitability a lot faster.
Dear Steve,
Thank you for all your fine videos. I always look forward to them. When i look at Aptera, I see that they have made some great strides already.
1. The vehicle is designed.
2. The dies for the body are built and validated.
3. The suspension is (pending final dial in) pretty much ready.
4. The solar panels are in production.
5. The batteries are being produced.
6. They have production sites lined up in Carlsbad and Modena.
7. They have 48,000 orders - the first 2,000 of which are backed up by at least $10,000.00 of investment, often much more than that. Those orders will not likely be canceled.
8. They have a core of extraordinary people working for them.
9. They have set crowdfunding records.
10. They have government (at least California) support.
I suspect we will be pleasantly surprised. I sure hope so. ;-)
In the beginning the assumption that the burn rate is over $4 million I believe is wrong. More like $1.2/$1/5 million a month. The head count is now only around 31 people working there. So the burn rate most likely is lower by a great deal. The other part, it matters very little what the stock price does after the IPO. Market cap, becomes a measuring device, yes, however if they pulled in $250/300 million on the offering, then get a Department of Energy ATVM loan, then path to production is fixed. I think the industry as a whole currently is not favorable but that can get better too.
Tesla hurt themselves by selling lots of cars to Hertz, who decided they had made a mistake and flooded the market with used, cheap Teslas.
Agreed
The burn rate is indeed lower (we already had that discussion here a few videos back), and I feel Steve also counted the production cost twice in some way. So it won't be THAT much money that's needed. I think Aptera has a real shot because as the effects of climate change will increasingly get worse, more people will want this type of product. They're smart and efficient doing the right thing. Having said that, of course it will be super hard.
@@haraldriegler6000 I agree 100% I think this Steve is a troll.
I think there’s several errors in Steve’s #s,, if they ramp to 20,000/year right out of the gate, AS per the plan , his numbers don’t add up.
So sorry you missed your apple and Tesla Opportunities. It’s been said many times that where some see fear, others see opportunity, and nothing revelotionary happens without risk and being bold. The future belongs to the bold is a statement that’s been proven many many times. Back in 2018 I invested in a company that had previously failed and looked to do so again, I saw the promise in their product, and me and my buddy profited handsomely of our somewhat meager investments, he’s now a multimillionaire off of it, true story. If both of us had lost our initial investments it wouldn’t have been the end of the world, both of us only risked what we could realistically could afford. Neither of us were what you would call wealthy by any stretch of imagination at the time. We basicly just risked just NOT significantly increasing our net worth.
This is probably why they insinuated that the ATVM loan request amount was going to be way more than the 50ish million they said they needed for production tooling mid last year. Your numbers make sense. My speculation on this is the reason they are going to the UAE is they couldn't find the money in the U.S. (on terms they could live with) and the UAE is looking to invest to diversify their economy. Good video thank you!
I'm not quite sure it's so linear as "didn't work here, let's try there". Investor relationships can take a while to build, so it's likely that - as the team has often mentioned - there are multiple ongoing conversations where the funding source has not taken action yet for one reason or another, OR, Aptera is not ready to move forward on terms due to broader fundraising strategy.
Looking at a conventional car (ICE or EV) manufacturing facility -- Ford, GM, Tesla, whoever -- it's not suprising they need such deep pockets. Aptera -- it appears -- has a much simpler built-out model which should really reduce the burn. Time will tell...
I'm just hoping to get my accelerator vehicle and my money back. That would be fine anything else is gravy.
I like your honesty. I value your OPINION, and will make my OWN investment decisions. 😅
Beats other YT’ers who like to project ‘expert’, smarter-than-you, Opinions.
THIS is the hard part? As always, thanks for your analysis Steve.
"The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you get one more yard
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part..."
Im confused. The need is $95,000,000 to begin production, yes? Then sell 6,000 vehicles to break even @ $35,000 per vehicle? This gets to your $210,000,000. But the $210,000,000 is revenue from sales; not investment. What am I missing?
You know I wouldn't care if they raise the price to 45 or 50K. It would still be cheaper than the Roman candle Teslas. And you would save on car insurance in the gasoline and charging.
You're not missing anything. He mixed up revenue with expenses. Unless he's assuming that Aptera is selling cars at cost, which they definitely aren't. As he said, he's not a financial analyst. Edit: Or, if he's assuming that they need an entire year's expenses in cash at the start of the year, which isn't true. The first car sold can pay help to pay for next month's production. It's smarter to have a lot of runway, but if necessary, Aptera could get away with just having enough money to get them through a couple of weeks of production, and use deliveries to fund subsequent production. And I believe that Aptera has stated that they have enough funds for low volume production, and just need funds for high volume production. So, that means they could limp along with low volume production either until they bootstrap their way to high volume production, or additional investors are attracted by their deliveries of vehicles.
Since you said for one year and 9 months, you're not really accounting for revenue once production begins. If Aptera can achieve even 6,000 vehicles produced within the first year of production, $210 million, the margins should lessen the additional capital requirements. Aptera's capital needs will really depend alot on the timing for new vehicle development and manufacturing expansion. Final assembly in Carlsbad requires far less human labor than any competitors. Production run rate should ramp up past 6,000 vehicles a year after the first full year.
It is always good to hear opinions/speculation when prefaced as such, especially when in regards to something important. Particularly when interjected into conversations surrounding fact(s)
the $210M isn't a fund raising aspect though as that is cars sold... they need to ramp up production though to get 6k+ cars/year though, so their burnn rate may increase as they balance how to do that
THIS!!! Everyone upvote this!!!
By the time the money raking-in finishes the model will be obsolete. I really wanted this vehicle to happen, but the hypnotic trance the public continues to be bombarded with looks nowhere near completion.
I think your thoughts are reasonable and well measured.
I know that most of us want and believe Aptera will succeed. But the reality is that most startups don't survive.
They need a big time investor or two and a larger customer base then what I think any 2 seater will have.
They will also have to overcome the EV stigma. There is a reason why so many EV companies are struggling. Even if Aptera can help with those concerns you atill have to convince the public at large of this fact. It's not an easy thing to do.
Aptera only has to get to production and make six thousand units to reach profitability. It usually takes $2B for an auto company to get to first deliveries. Aptera has a winning chance to achieve this with less than half that cost.
@@barnabasseadog7660 I hope you are right. 🤞
I'm hoping we get some really good news in the next update which is almost upon us.
I am an accelerator. Like many of the comments here, I did not invest to make money. Never invest what you can't afford to lose. I just wanted to support the company as much as I could to help get them to production. I have high hopes and their story speaks to me and many people I know.
'thank you' for bringing me back to reality. a hard pill to swallow
I appreciate your realistic view on Aptera. The paragraph right before what you read is also worth considering. "The company lacks significant working capital... We will incur significant additional costs before significant revenue is achieved. These matters raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue..." As I've said many times, I hope Aptera is successful but a start-up car company is a very hard thing to make successful and more often than not they fail.
Spot on!
Of course it’s difficult to pinpoint exact figures, but I think that your assessment is close. Thanks for the perspective. I hope that Aptera address this. So far they’ve been transparent while leaning optimistically, but it takes more courage to do so when the forecast is less than optimistic.
I am on the rleader board, but I agree there is a comming problem. If the first PI's are produced this summer and they still have not recieved the major investment(s) that they need it will be a problem.
I am hoping that investment(s) will come in.
Production intent vehicle is to prove claims of safety, efficiency, and yada yada yada. Once those third party tests are published, if the are as good as Aptera has seen on the computer simulations, the money will come because the story is now confirmed. I believe that getting around 330 MPGe will turn a few heads, Toyota Prius owners will say "what?" I too am on the leader board.
There are two things that I am concerned about with respect to Aptera: Does the hub motor have durability?; and their go-to-market strategy. I think they should have had a few minimally viable vehicles out on the road gathering real life data on the hub motor and generating market interest. This vehicle is so efficient that it does not need the solar to be marketable. They should have gone to market with a model wthout the solar and generating revenue - and add the solar at a later time.
The solar is fully ready and not a blocker to production. We'll see some good info in their may update
I don't remember where, but a couple of years ago Sandy stated that Aptera would need hundreds of millions to begin production
The one thing you’re missing is the profit on the 6000 units which should be about 10-20 %
That profit is what keeps the lights on and pays for the overhead
1 recall and that 10% profit is gone....there will be recalls
@@shrimptopian3392
I reside twenty-six miles from Aptera Motors, and am quite prepared for any recall that may result.
@@shrimptopian3392 Depends on the nature of the recall. Every car company has recalls. Many can be handled with an OTA update. Many others can be handled by the customer, with a part shipped from the company. Good news is that the Aptera simply has fewer parts than traditional cars, so fewer things to go wrong.
@@GoClimbARockEh
Show me a ev startup that did not have a physical recall
We can always count on AOC to illuminate issues many do not want to acknowledge. Thank you! This one is an elephant in the room. All is speculation since nobody on this forum or other related Aptera forums, have sufficient information to estimate reliably, even those with experience in the industry. My first comment is that the value is not a point value. There are many inputs and all have some variability. Therefore the actual value is a range. That range also varies as these variables are not static neither is the environment, so that range varies from day to day. My experience under these conditions is to use risk assessment simulation software to provide a range and look at at statistics that characterize the resulting distributions. Regression analysis or factor analysis can be used to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the required funding to help focus efficient management efforts. Time is running out for Aptera. The longer they go without the funding they need the harder it will be to get someone(s) to sign up as potential investors will be reluctant to sign up wondering why nobody else has to date if it is such a good deal. I hope Aptera is looking at worst cases and working on Plans B, C, etc. and not not looking through rose colored glasses.
Haha. Love the title!
Reverse-psychology clickbait!
Same
Wow!!! I don't know how feel about your take Steve. Disappointed or hopeful? Numb... that's how i feel. Numb...
I reserved my Aptera in July 2021. I eventually became an Ambassador and investor (not an Accelerator). Based on the latest info provided by Aptera Motors I was anticipating a late 2025 delivery. Now? Hell I don't know. Let's hope they find the $$$ they need to go into production. GO APTERA IN 202?
Aptera is a risk, but I'm not worried. Because the reward for success is well worth it, and I think that the market is really waiting for a super efficient, and sporty, NON-crossover/pickup EV.
Aptera seems awfully slow and conservative for a tech company. Despite their lower cost of capital compared to mainstream BEV manufacturers it’ll take significant time to ramp up to the number of employees needed to assemble their vehicles. They will encounter significant hurdles once production starts. I hope the conservatism doesn’t become their Achilles heel.
The 1 euro deal has significant renovation requirements that add six-figures to the valuation of those properties.
Yes I was going to say there is something like a three year commitment to make the place habitable and a minimum amount of cash to do it. Then you have to hire an architect and contractors.
I only looked at one area where there was an established crew doing most of the work, so it would just be a matter of getting on their schedule.
That made me look at houses that weren’t ruined, but just needed updating
The question is, will their burn rate be the same as when they were purchasing and cutting massive blocks of steel for tooling, had a whole team of engineers And had to front the cost of several other parts and materials. Or maybe it will break even since the next phase of tooling will begin? Either way, the intrinsic value of the design far exceeds that of its non-existent competitors
I think that when they finish the PI builds they will be able to prove efficiency drag coefficient and safety. This will lead to much more excitement and confidence that will allow for the money required to get to production with favourable terms. This will lead to qualification for the government loan which will allow them to grow to profitability. The IPO is another option to fund manufacturing to profitability. Time the IPO for the greatest return to allow for maximum growth and expansion. Focus on the three wheeler till profits can fund either vertical integration or expansion into other vehicles depending on strength of partnerships. I like the idea of solar clad buildings, back up power supplies and battery management products that could be in the works already. Rotary sawmills driven by Elaphe hub motors powered by my Aptera car would be so cool.
I suspect that the actual tests will fall short of their compulsively optimistic projections, but will still indicate a highly efficient vehicle that offers value in every component they addressed in design. Hopefully there are investors with a “glass is half full” perspective.
It’s solar efficient, and dynamically slippery in the air stream.
Breakeven is at the RATE of 6,000 annually. That means 115 a week to break even. It doesn’t take a year!!! What it takes depends on inventory needs, credit terms and other production needs, but certainly NOT producing all of those 6,000 units!!!
In the auto industry the idea of being niche is a pretty hard sell. The big players have a hard enough time. As was said here about many of the other EV brands out there none are even close to being in the clear.
I sometimes wonder if a very, very niche EV product might be more easily successful, thinking here about the old "kit cars" of the 70's and 80's and if Aptera might have gone that direction.
It would be a completely different idea and one that doesn't speak to their philosophy of changing the landscape of EV etc. But for the DIY crowd there might be enough folks looking to put in their own sweat equity to make such a thing sustainable. Similar say to the kit airplane market. It's small but it's always there and serves the community it is in.
I was thinking ~ $150MM to $250MM to get to initial low volume production. Still very low.
Working Capital can kill rapidly growing companies (inventory, AP/AP). Most people don’t realize that to increase production. You’re working capital needs increases quicker.
The $150 to $250 MM will be raised over multiple rounds.
I don’t think there needs will get towards $1 B unless they’re expanding to another factory.
"I don't like making predictiongs, especially about the future." ~ Mark Twain Everyone's speculating about every business entity because most know so little about the "Details" about companies operating expenses, revenues and future revenues.
AOC,
Let’s start at what we know then try to guess at what we do not know.
To me two things we relatively know with decent certainty, one it would take 2 hr to produce one Aptera on one assembly line. Two, Aptera needs to produce 6000/ year to break even.
With those info, we can deduce with some confidence that Aptera needs two assembly lines and run both three shift a day.
Next we need to know how much equipment would cost per assembly and how many people are needed per assembly line.
If we know that, we should be able to estimate how much funding Aptera needs to equip the factory and nine months expense before revenue start coming in.
We also know, once the operation starts, the total operating break even cost would be 15,000,000 /month from revenue of 6000x30,000/year assuming each LE price is 30,000.
If we all do it together, I think we will have a better picture of what Aptera is facing.
Assuming for 9 months leading to production, the cash burn rate is the same 15,000,000/month, the total upfront money Aptera needs is 9x15 + 60 or 195 millions. Call that 200 M.
We actually know nothing. Some unvalidated numbers have been discussed at a very high level.
@@johnmalcom9159
Of course we do not know, but it is not the point, is it?
The info I cited comes directly from CA.
So you are doubtful of everything?
I thought you are on the side of Aptera.
@@Kukaboora Thanks for acknowledging that we "Don't know" and it is the point. Then why proceed with high level statements that don't represent the whole story or any story as things at this point change frequently. That is the true definition of head in the sand speculation.
@@johnmalcom9159
If you read the post you should have know that AOC tried to answer the question of funding that Aptera needs.
I just try to suggest some way to get close to the number.
I do know these:
1. CA said in one of the past presentations that it would take 2hr to produce one Aptera on one assembly line.
2. The break even point is 6000 Aptera/year.
Those two were statements from CA.
We also know that the price for LE is between 30-35 k, this also directly from CA.
So if I have to guess, I would start with those numbers.
If you summarily dismiss all those, I think you are just a bitter cynic.
I follow Canoo pretty closely. The stock is down because no one believes they'll make it to actual production, despite having a pretty healthy order book. They've probably delivered low double digit vehicles in the last 12 months, all hands built. If they can actually scale the stock will skyrocket
I really like Canoo, but their subscription based model is worrisome.
@@paulas_lens agreed. I hope they abandon that.... If they ever make it to real production
I'm betting they can't make them cheap enough with no clear path to profitability.
I appreciate the candor and a little dose of reality :)
I think a key variable is being ignored: buzz. Most people still know nothing about Aptera, just as was the case with Cybertruck. Then those trucks started appearing in public and the buzz has been immense. Aptera will be similar if they can just build a few … for media to try and for people to see. The buzz will massively increase investments and orders.
Thanks Steve. By the way, how did that marathon go?
Anyone who is an early investor that may be concerned about this should just remind themselves that if this is what it takes for Aptera to reach production, that's a hell of a lot better deal than them closing their doors because they couldn't get enough investment
Love the title! And you’re right, it IS negative speculation. It’s normal to offer large blocks of stock at a discount. Since they drastically cut back on workforce, and other cost cuts I’m sure their burn rate is 1/3 to 1/4 what you’re saying. Also if they imeddiately ramp to 20,000 units/year they’ll be in the black the first year by a significant amount. Steve and Chris have said this is the plan. Of course as you say investors are going to compare them to conventional car companies so they have that perception to overcome. Also like others here we mainly invested to get them to a point where it becomes much more likely they can get those investors, and I think us accelerators have accomplished that, now it’s up to Aptera to bring us across the finish line so to speak. I’m fully aware of the risk but am optimisticly cautious and fully aware of what I’ve gotten into. I also think Chris and Steve are extremely cognizant of what they need to do to get us across the finish line so to speak. The biggest hurdle in my mind is getting public perception onboard with such is considered by many to be an odd looking car, hopefully there’s a BIG investor out there that feels and understands about Aptera the same way we do, I’m confident there is, they just have to find them.
I sure wish they would get a highly-regarded full-time CFO.
highly-regarded full-time CFO = $$$$
@@jameshwang4750 No highly-regarded full-time CFO = no $$$$. At least that's been the situation for at least the last year.
Hi Steve, thanks for sharing!
Thanks for the warning. I didn't need to watch. Thumbs up thought.
I've been waiting for an Aptera since 2007 and might come off as a curmudgeon with my comments.
I believe Aptera could slot in right behind Tesla as an EV company. But to do that they need to have a realistic product-market fit. Without a realistic product-market fit they could also end up a zero. Life is "non-linear" and both outcomes are possible.
For me this "solar mobility" angle is designed more for VCs and angel investors than actual consumers. I really think the product they should be trying to make is the lowest cost American build commuter EV possible without the solar panel gimmick. Getting rid of the solar panels in V0 will offer the following benefits. (a) It reduces the amount of engineering needed for the car, which (b) reduces the time needed to test and get to production while (c) reduces the # of parts and cost to produce the car.
This means they will be able to get a car into people's hands soon with a lower build complexity and cost.
If they want "solar mobility" in a V2, they should go for it. I'm just afraid, that going for it right out of the gate with V0 will kill the entire thing.
I'm hoping for an Aptera but worried.
No doubt any startup represents and immense task to support, and particularly an automotive startup. I do not envy Aptera's current position, nor the job in front of them to take it to be self sustaining!
I don't pay super close attention to abterra but I am a reservation holder. But.
I thought the accelerator program was gonna get us to production.Obviously, they were just burning that money to get to production.But not actually get production started. And with interest rates as high as they are right now.I see a path for them to completely fail sad.
They were pretty clear that the accelerator program wasn't going to be enough to get them to production. But it was enough to fund some production tooling, like the molds used by cpc
Please forgive me if i missed it, but i didn’t see the credits for the 2000 sold Aptera’s with the Accelerator Program or even the 600 breakeven sold when doing the financial analysis. Also, clarification is needed for the burn rate. Always remember that "Success Breeds Success"; Once a few production models are delivered, an IPO will solve these financial challenges and the public will make this one of the hottest IPOs in history. I am all in!!
There are no sold Apterae. The 2,000+ are investments and entitle the 2,000 to purchase one of the first 2,000 LE's. produced. If sufficient funding can not be procured to support production, there there is a chance that the 2,000 will not be produced.
Tesla was already making and selling cars in 2013. Aptera has been going round and round this mountain for years now.
In late the '40s my father, a great auto/aircraft mechanic, put down $500 deposit on a superior car startup, the Tucker. In a capitalist country, it would have been #1. No such country exists.
Politics, e.g., "The Big Three" conspired with politicians to kill their competition. The USA drifted from mostly capitalist, 1800s, to socialist/fascist, 1900s.
An amazing entrepreneur, Elon Musk, overcame all the political obstacles and built an empire. How? My guess: His would be enemies have only two weapons, the initiation of deadly threats and fraud (propaganda) accessed by conspiring with the govt., but they didn't perceive the disruption, the looming innovations, the genius, until it was too late.
It's a better world now. Our species may even survive an extinction event when it goes multi-planetary.
Aptera has Steve, Chris, Sandy. They are extraordinary. They will make the difference between success or failure, not comparisons to other startups, stats, the economy, the govt.
You are not crazy.... production cost tons of money. Aptera had this grand dream of opening production with 40 cars per day. IMHO, that's what's killing them. No shame in start production slow and ramp up. Even Tesla is ramping production with Cybertruck. Sticking to 40 cars per day is like abandoning their crawl, walk, run principle.
With the dismal performance of IPOs, why even bother with an IPO??
My favorite reply when people ask me for financial advice. "I'm not a financial adviser. I don't play one on TV or RUclips. I never stayed at a Holiday Inn. Anything I say can and will make you lose money. Now, what is your question?"
lol Good one!
You can't tell me what to do I'mma watch who I want while I'm at work, especially if they're entertaining😂😜
Not one mention in any of this about market conditions. Two very critical factors are affecting EV stock prices right now. Most of the rest of the world except the US is experiencing a slowing global economy. The world economy is approaching peak oil production. From what I hear, as oil production peaks and the global economy eventually picks up, oil prices will rise. But due to boom in solar, wind and electricity storage, electricity prices won't. This should flip the script on EV demand.
Oops. Too late, already watched it 😨
This is why they plan to IPO at the beginning of production
We will see what comes of their visit to the UAE, if Gamma ever gets there.
Sooooo, does everyone have a happy feeling that they will get there car in their garage anytime before they die of old age ?? I don't and haven't for a long time now. For all those who invested lumps of money in this company before not, I only have one thing to say, "ha, ha, ha, I really wish you well". i still have my deposit in and waiting in line, but after getting pushed further and further down the list, I'm just laughing silly now.
Diluting our stock sucks. I for one would cancel my 3 orders, as much as I have loved the concept since the 1st one, the one that went bankrupt.
Dilution is to be expected in a start up. If you invested, every investor who bought in after you caused you dilution. It just means that your % share of the company ownership went down because new stock was issued. They will almost certainly issue new stock if they IPO, diluting all previous investors, but that's a good thing because it allows them to raise money. Ideally when they IPO the shares you have Will be worth significantly more, so even though you were diluted you still have way more value
Next video better be the “but good news...” video :)
Wait for Aptera's May update
I do not mind a bit of gloom&doom, as the odds are indeed against any new EV startup and Steve showed it clearly at the beginning of the video.
However, the manufacturing of Aptera is a game changer in the auto industry, even leapfrogging Tesla IMO.
Still plenty of pitfalls to avoid ahead, but I remain hopeful.
We owe to future generations solutions like the Aptera.
I an watching it.
Can't judge your investment prowess, I'm still waiting on my Elio to get delivered...
😄😄😢
@@ApteraOwnersClub Still own 275 shares worth a whopping 14 cents! Fingers crossed my Aptera shares net out a little more :-)
Am I getting sthg wrong Steve. The 210.000.000$ are earned when selling the 6000 apteras in one year so this could only be a liquidity issue if they don't have the money early enough in the year. Cheers
No I think you're right. They would recoup the $210 million from sales revenue but you need that money upfront to pay the workers and suppliers
@@ApteraOwnersClub but for sure they don't need $210million all at once up-front. You also have to take into account the difference between sales price and self-costs which hopefully are way lower. Anyway I am very optimistic and a small investor and hopefully sooner than later also managing to get my aptera to Austria. Great chatting with you and I have to admit you are doing really an awesome job with you channel. Thank you so much it's really exciting following this journey.
I started to listen but couldn't make it.
It can be progressive funding to a certain extent. But realistically they need ipo.
Are you forgetting that 2/3 of that 300 million comes from sales of vehicles. Yes they need to raise that 100 million to get to production, but after that first 600 units, revenue starts to come in, and above that 6000 vehicles it starts to become profitable.
I would compare Aptera to Tesla in regard to innovation and first principles approach. Many of the companies you show are not innovative at all. They came at the problem from the exact same route every car company that fails did. Light year is the only company I would look to for some of the same innovation.
I hope that they are able to secure the funding that they need.
I don't understand why the company would need continued investment income after they sell enough units 6000 to be profitable. Future production should be funded by past sales income. Rivian and Lucid have problems selling their vehicles for a profit. With a smaller battery pack and decreasing prices of all of the key components of electric vehicles, this is not a problem Aptera will have.
Canoo, Rivian, and Lucid currently have no path to profitability. That's the difference. People can't seem to wrap their heads around being able to manufacture 20,000 vehicles per year in a 77,000 square foot facility without miles of overhead tracks and billions of dollars of giant machinery. This is like when Henry Ford made the assembly line happen. After Aptera hits profitability people are going to look back and say, "Why didn't I see it?"
You are crazy… crazy awesome! It’ll be fine - and if it does die, well, we did a good thing and it was a really fun journey to do what is right. It’s worth the risk.
The answer is in the attempt.
If Aptera doesn't want to go down as a scam, they need to start producing some vehicles and start getring them in the hands of people this year, additional $55M or not. That $5M a month burn rate should start producing some vehicles. 800M is very high valuation, 10x Fisker at this point!
This is coming from someone on the leaderboard.
No real use comparing it to fisker at this point. Their stock crashed hard when people stopped buying their cars because they sucked. I would say it's a role of the dice whether they make it to the next 2 years or not
@@GoClimbARockEh Right, and we don't know how Aptera will sell or will sell at all, outside of the may be 2K accelerators, Many there might be looking for selling their place in line for a profit or waiting for windfall from IPO, so need to start making it real without any further delay, even if say at rate of say 5 vehicles a month.
Aptera current burn rate is more like $1.4M a month. The $5M assumption is based on previous years. Aptera path to profitablility is clearer than any other EV startup, and they will ALWAYS need money.
So just start making a product without little if any testing? Anyone assuming this vehicle is ready to go is kidding themselves. They have no working pre production prototypes and have a staffing shortage. Plus no manufacturing equipment or any reveal how CPC is going to make the rollers needed for Carlsbad.
If you have a plan for them to get this to market faster, I’d love to hear it.
@@billsmith5960 Why without testing at this point? with autocycle classification, they need not as thorough testing as say Fisker Or a Lucid would have required. The company could have some production plan and hard dates that are not "9 months" from an uncertain date. The "How" lies with the management.
I'm glad I made the decision to go with Zero as my electric motorcycle provider. I'm happy Aptera is going to be my SEV provider.
Zero isn't publicly traded and it's still going strong. I'm not sure Aptera will have to be publicly traded, but I'm glad they're doing everything they need to do to make it possible for them to do so.
I also love how you help us look at things, Steve.
Thank you 🙏.
I was looking at a Zero but the style of the bike just wasn't for me at the time. Plus it really didn't have the range I was looking for and was pretty pricey.
@@artboymoy Yes, that has been a frustration of my dealer - that Zero appeals to a pretty narrow band of riders. I happen to be lucky that the style of the bike is perfect for me, and the range meets my "very suburban" needs.
I hope 🤞 as battery technology improves, Zero is able to expand their offerings.
I have found that the quality of all three of my bikes has been good, and the company is great about resolving the inevitable issues that arise.
I suspect that like my Zero, Aptera isn't going to be for everyone, but it's going to be the perfect thing for enough of us to make them viable.
You did much better than I. I passed up the Zero for a Brammo Empulse R. I sure hope I don't end up with my Aptera being a cool orphan!
@@lectricbill3329I have the same hope 😊. It really was dumb luck. I didn't even know how to ride when I bought my first Zero S in 2012. I simply love being able to ride, now, though.
Oops. 6000 units.
Not “a bit apples to oranges.” Completely apples to oranges.
Really is pointless speculating until.....they actually produce THE.....vehicle so everyone can see for real (not body parts and computer renderings) what they are producing and what buyers will actually be getting and at what $$$
But reiterate, unless they get a move on...they will be left behind by the likes of BYD
The Binc is now 5 weeks in usa, but no pictures of Aptera working on it. 🤔
Break even means that above 6000 Apterae sold per year Aptera Motors will be profitable on the production of those vehicles in a year time, NOT that they need an additional 210 M$ investments to deliver those 6000 vehicles. This 210 M$ will be paid by the 6000 customers taking delivery, thus it is not another required investment.
I also think the burn rate estimated by Steve is not the current burn rate. Both CA and CMC have mentioned a much lower burn rate (1 to 1.5 M$ IIRC).
This said, I agree that substantial new investments will be required to allow for fast expansion.
Who the heck knows
The $56M they spent in 2023 included a lot of one time capex. CA said in an interview late in 2023 that their burn rate was $1.2M
A burn rate of 1.2M is exceptionally low for a company with 20 employees. If it all goes to salary + employment tax, That's ~25k salary per head
The 1.2 million is just not true, sorry
@@shrimptopian3392please cite your sources
What a clickbaity title. 😮
seems to be common with Aptera lately. Production starting in 2023, production starting in the UAE etc… Every day there are at least 5 clickbait titles on Aptera. I guess the company desires this to get more coverage.
Second comment, the value Aptera places on itself is not real. Of that eight hundred million dollar claimed value the vast majority is rolled into their Class A stock which they self awarded themselves over fifty million shares of, there were very few sales of Class A and they are all in that document you read from. They converted a number of SAFE investments to Preferred stock (class b) and then sold another block to Accelerators and others through various offerings. The only real valuation is on the shares investors have paid for, not their self rewarded stock. That self awarded stock is one major reason no large investor has invested. Its a like a giant poison pill - only class A has voting rights and they have not sold that class in any significant amount to other than Directors and above.
Aptera needs Tesla. That's the only way they win
No, Tesla does not see eye to eye with Aptera regarding solar cars. Plus, Tesla does not fully appreciate solar cars in that it would eat into the potential revenue from their supercharger network.
Tesla with too much of a say over Aptera's destiny would severely dilute its vision and charter, IMHO.
I am NOT a financial expert either, but I thought in the worst case scenario Aptera has a lot of options to get to production in comparison to other new car makers.
They can also consider going public (IPO) as the last resort to raise more money (i know it is not a good time now). Even though I am not a Trump supporter, I believe he is going to be elected and will jump start the World Economy.
Just my thoughts ......
i think so too about Trump improving the economy, for that I will support him. Everyone will be better off with him in charge.
Probably best to leave politics out of this. But I will note that Trump is the only modern US president to leave office with a smaller US workforce than when he started. He makes plenty of claims that he was the best ever for the economy, but the data do not support that
Pat Paulsen 2024
@@GoClimbARockEh Can't fault Covid on him. Fact is he started the ball rolling for mfg to come back to the US while all the previous exported American jobs.
Fact is presidents have far less influence on the economy than most pundits would like you to believe. Manufacturing jobs in the US were on an upward trend when Trump came into office, and that trend continued until the beginning of 2019, when the number of manufacturing jobs stopped growing, and began to dip slightly, all before covid. I don't credit Trump for the gains in his first couple years, and I don't blame him for the losses during covid. Manufacturing jobs are higher now than they've been in years. I don't credit Biden for that, but I certainly don't credit Trump
Last comment, profitability really takes a hit given shipping times from Italy, that is basically a month to ship and to insure a continuous supply to California means nearly a thousand units have been paid for that but are stuck in transport before they can be completed. Unlike a typical manufacturing line that is a significant delay from start to finish. Don't be fooled by their claims of forty a day and the part from Italy being just one part number, that is one very expensive part we can assume they paid for or accounted for as it was shipped.
Remember, it takes only 12 minutes to build one in Carlsbad. That means, the rollers being made at CPC need to be made faster or do a 24/7 operation just to account for shipping issues that come about. Last thing Aptera needs is to have a bunch of people on the payroll waiting around for those rollers to show up. At least it’ll give those two guys taking 90 minutes to wrap an Aptera a break.
Tool up is $65 million, the following year they would need to raise another $60 million the following year with selling 2000 units in the first year. Operating costs will skyrocket with larger staff and production.
Doubtful they would need to raise 60 million in year two unless they were setting up a second production line
@@GoClimbARockEh their operating costs will probably double to over $100,000,000 and wont make any money the first year as they try to ramp production. what is their estimate for first year production of units produced?
@@RomanChaar you're probably an order of magnitude off if your estimate
@@GoClimbARockEh maybe, their current operating cash burn (OCB) with few employees and no factory is $58M, once they actually have a factory OCB will be well over $100M with double the employees and cost to build 2000 units in the first year @ $40k each, maybe they make 10% on each unit. $100M - $72M revenue = -$28M OCB. That's assuming ramping of production is smooth to make 2000 units and delivery.
this is extremely hypothetical of course lol
Unprecedented reality came through with this video.
The big deal of the day, however, is that in order to ever have something like this work, Aptera would have to become a viable manufacturer.
They have not shown the least bit of activity towards that end.
They should have been testing full-on mules with prototype components of their entire system 2 years ago. The production components should have been evolved variants of those. The assembly plans/stations should have been emerging in parallel.
You should have been able to see this focus with each passing “transparency session”.
At the very, very, least, you should have seen the BinC’s being built up with parts all lined up waiting for them.
You have seen absolutely nothing that suggests upcoming successful manufacture. They haven’t even started down that path.
The “break-even at 6,000 units/yr.” is their most useless claim to date. They’ve not done anything that suggests they have ANY credibility to make this claim. They don’t understand how to get there, the variables, the validity of their assumptions, anything.
Look at how the PI’s are being handled. An Aptera is not a complicated vehicle. That’s what you’ve been told. Many of us have built more involved kit cars.
Yet this has fallen dead-ass flat vs. that jovial “PI’s completed in the first few months of next year”, “crash data by mid-year”.
The crowdfunders will never be manufacturers.
Please, open your eyes.
They have a few parts, and an empty building.
The BinC is just a BinC. A gorgeous piece of work to be sure, but that’s all they’ve got because, on their own, the Carlsbad crew has got no manufacturing juice. Never did.
Stop speculating and just watch.
Yep
I wish they would have followed their original plan from 2019, low volume production and natural growth.
The first 100 would be very expensive, but at least it would be out there
The next 100 could have been cheaper, and they would have way more credit to set up a small production line making it a little bit cheaper again
To start with high volume you indeed need half a billion or even better a billion
They have already spent 240 million since 2019, but what do they have now for that money, not much
Hard to impossible to do all of those activities without capital
@@johnmalcom9159 People constantly comment about the lower Aptera $ relative to other organizations. They never comment on how many $ Aptera has gone through since Gamma without building a single vehicle inclusive of all systems that they intend ship as a warranteeable product someday. Pick a number. $15 million. Just think of the kick-ass development program you could run IF you were actually developing a product. Think of the position they would be in if they had 3 or 4 vehicles with full-on 3rd party validated performance. Think of how much more credible they would be as an upcoming manufacturer if they showed the capability in "pilot" form. They have not spent the money wisely to date.
@@johnmalcom9159 They haven't spent the capital consumed to date as a real manufacturer would. It would have been about the putting proven prototypes out that let the product speak for itself.
Aptera pretty much doomed themselves by splitting their supply chain across two continents and imposing a four to six week shipping event in their production process let alone being in a California location that is ten miles off the interstate, over thirty miles from the port, that has a small loading dock setup with access to the site not controlled by a light. Let alone no place to store finished product. Think about that shipping delay, that inventory in transit costs significant money that has to be on a near continuous cycle to keep the assembly line in California going without pause. The logistics of trucking the containers alone should stagger people
Its a clown show all around.
What a click baity title. You know, nothing says you can't ask someone who's more knowledgeable on a topic than you are to make a video...
Steve; I'm living off my dividends from REITs and BDCs. They are always fully invested in their business model and issue shares under their net asset value all the time. It is how they grow.
I am not sure why someone starts out telling us about his poor track record and then wants to give us his opinion about Aptera. So, I think I will just walk down the street and ask a random person his opinion. Never know, he might have a better track record on picking stocks. I just think I am going to call me stock broker and ask his opinion. As the saying goes " The past is history and the future is a mystery." No one knows, so it's going to be a chance. So, you make your bet or don't. Only time will tell. I am betting on Aptera. l am not going to hurt myself financially, but then again I own a Bricklin.
Being honest increases your credibility and puts what you say later into context. I appreciate this and enjoy the content of this channel.
@@alansnyder8448 to each his own.