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I can see china taking back far east republic state. I would hope that once putin dies, china makes the the first move and takes back its ancestral lands
Some points to ponder not covered in your excellent presentation. 1. Look at a population density map of Russia....with a total population of 140,000,00, 80% resided in European Russia or about 112 million with the remaining 28 million scattered throughout the remaining vastness of Asian Russia. That 28 million is about the populations of Belgium and the Netherlands combined. 2. By definition a nation's sovereignty requires control of its borders. An impossible task for your sketch of Far Eastern Russia, Siberian Russia, and the Ural manning tens of thousands of miles. Especially considering that those populations are clustered on small cities and towns. 3. Break up will result in landlocked territories with scant transportation to world markets....Who gets controll of the Russian rail system components. Siberian republic claims the train roadways. Moscow says, ok, but all our locomotives, freight, maintence trains, etc return to Moscovy, leaving unusable rail tracks. 4. Transport of goods across borders within that vastness could not be effectively controlled, no customs, no duties, no income. 5. None of those three eastern divisions would develop economically save for a few enclaves generating energy sources. Same with coastal areas. 6. European Russian in such a scenario would lose control of the eastern pipelines as they would be vulnerable along their entire length despite the possibility of transit duties at every pass through state. Your presentation always provoke closer thoughts about possibilities and consequences...far reaching. Thank you.
Could you do a video about global birth rates? The main reason for low birth rates in countries like Korea and China is just the ridiculous costs piled onto young people. Which country is willing to lower those costs, despite short term economic fallout? In the 60s costs were low, life was simple, jobs were worth it. Oh, how that has changed for my generation. The solution isn't hard, or complicated, but different to any other problem we've faced. A good topic in my opinion.
its called capitalism, the squeezing of profits out of overworked populations, capitalism does not care about reproduction because it only aims to gain profits short term
@@fareflight2029 Well if the situation in terms of work and financials was easier for young people, that issue would be solved. In China, 1/5 young people are jobless. In S. Korea things aren't better
asia is INSANELY focused on education. Like literally to the point where it's unhealthy - you put your studies before everything else in your life. Also I don't think the cost is the biggest reason. Many people choose their careers over starting a family which is quite normal in the west and it's effects are not as bad. both japan and korea have "tried" to encourage people to have more children but their efforts were laughable. Nothing will change unless they start to recognize it as a problem and actually take steps to fix societal issues.
This channel has emerged from the clutter to distinguish itself. A must- watch for those interested in the larger picture of Eurasia and the post-WW2 world. Regards, Kev
this is happening RIGHT NOW. a communist metropolis attacked former colonies. and i bet moscow will be totally unable to repeat it right after the upcoming defeat.
An excellent series, no one has addressed these scenarious as thoroughly. Most commentators insist on extrapolating the present, unchanged, but only one thing is guaranteed - change!
More people have adressed these issues more thoroughly. This series was a nice recap, peppered with Grey CGP's rules of power, but also missed a lot and gave wish-wash coverall scenarios. Provided a good basic understanding of politics in general, I think a day of research plus some ChatGPT inquiries can prepare a script like this. What will happen in Russia's future will be more dramatic by a factor of hundred.
@@Enyavar1 Well, if you know so much more, why don't you post an explanatory video. We would all like to know more about what will most likely happen from a real expert like yourself. Don't hold out on us - let's hear it ?
@@ericwillis777 Never claimed to be an expert though, only that the script was not revealing any new insights to me, but missed several things. But yeah, pay me for a day's work, and I'll crib you together the script you want. Visual effects and reading it for the audience - now THAT you will have to do in your own studio. Vlogging on youtube requires more than a script.
@@Enyavar1 I would't pay a self appointed, self acclaimed, know- it- all, a nickle for anything but his own hummiliation - I'm not suprised that you think that what you learn, or don't learn, is of any interest to anyone except yourself. Perhaps you should spend your time more fruitfully by seeking what you conside better sources of information, and leave the mundane, which is, of course, far below your level of erudition, for the rest of us, who don't aspire to your own, high, levels of hubris and self esteem.
Yeah I don't see a democratic turn taking place anywhere in current Russia... All the ethnic groups inside Russia are in love with strong men who do nothing but exploit them...
@@Alex-hu5eg When Russia dies. Instead of Moscow should be independent Zalessia Rus Federation.Novgorod Republic,Pskov Republic. Russians deserve better oppurtunites to have aforomentioned Republics as the new Fatherlands.
Considering the shaky economy, I'm keen to know best, how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and sometimes earn up to $160K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
I concur to financial planning. I'm quite lucky exposed to finance at an early age, started job at 19, purchased first home at 28, got laid-off work at 36 just after the rona-outbreak in 2020, going forward, immediately hired an advisor to keep my head above water, and in return, I'm only 25% short of $1m after subsequent investments to date.
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Hey GTBT, I think this could be a very interesting and important video topic. I live in the US and this is controversial but there is a very clear authoritarian movement growing in this country. As someone constantly exposed to American media it’s hard to understand but an outside perspective could be helpful for a lot of people.
Can you expend a little bit more on that? It is a common trend in Europe. It's the only answer in the eyes of the governments to the civil unrest and public dissatisfaction caused by gradually lowering the standard of living and ever widening wealth inequality. What's your perspective living in the US?
"there is a very clear authoritarian movement growing in this country" Yeah. It's called CONSERVATISM. Always has been. Extremist rightwing conservative republicunts and useless centrist democraps. Groups like climate activists, IPCC, Antinatalists, Atheists, LGBTQ groups get SILENCED. Look at Florida's anti-constitutional attempts to silence/ban talking about homosexuality and transgender people. Yet politicians are COWARDS and refuse to stop REAL QUANTIFIABLE PHYSICAL HARMS, EVILS, such as the Holocaust of factory farming.
@@peao010109 I agree with everything you said except Id like to caveat that with, while the majority Democratic Party is inherently tied to corporate interests and complacent by inaction, it is the only party( of two😫) that actively hold up American institutions. The Republican Party on the other hand is the aggressor of pushing unpopular, terrifying policy and rhetoric that I and a lot Americans find extremely threatening. The right has a very powerful propaganda arm that had successfully brainwashed millions of people into a false reality…
You might be overestimating the value of nuclear weapons in post-breakup states. It's not always appreciated that such weapons have a limited shelf life. They require periodic maintenance and remanufacturing to remain usable. If successor states lack the local capacity to perform such servicing activity those assets will become worthless militarily.
They will still be a problem in terms of nuclear profilerarion and terrorists getting their hands on the expired warheads. You don't need weapons grade material for dirty bombs.
I started watching this episode, then I realized it was the last of a series, I wanted to go back and watch it from the begining but I could not, it is so catching that I couldn't stop watching it.
An interesting topic. Autocratic countries are always unstable. But Russia is so big and diverse, with so many outside and inside actors, that it is impossible to predict. I naively hope for a revolution and the emergence of a democratic Russia
Excellent analysis! Back in September I was arguing this same point with a friend about China feeling the need to secure territory to the north in the event of a Russian collapse. China pushing north to claim territory may sound out of character for the hermit kingdom, however doing may be seen as a major positive so long as their expansionism is framed through the lens of global security. Not everyone would find this so positive, however, and as you pointed out the US would be equally inclined to create a buffer in the Russian far east. I would also add that SK, Japan, and Canada would be likely to join the US since a China which claims territory north of North Korea would gain ports that are outside Western containment in the South China Sea . Likewise, North Korea would NOT be happy about such a move, and would be inclined to retaliate (or at least kick and scream)
Yes, China will secure adjacent regions if Russia will collapse. But it's more likely that China will simply help the Moscow based government to return control of those brake away "republics". Much better global publicity and less problematic
North Korea is the Hermit Kingdom, not China. China is not walled off from the world. And it doesn't seem out of character at all. China already has maps showing cities that used to be in China, but now in Russia, under their Chinese names. Also, the arc of Russian-Chinese diplomacy at the moment is giving China more access to those areas. Why wouldn't they just take it if there is a break-up?
@@MATyoriy77 This is under the assumption that the new Moscow leadership will be pro-Beijing. The assumption is going to be that Russia is going to break apart as a result of the Ukrainian War being such an epic disaster for Russia that the government literally can't maintain control over it's entire country. Any post Ukrainian War government in any part of Russia will work to realign itself in a way that will secure themselves. Any primary goal of post war negotiations/alliances on the part of any post Russian state will be to secure capital, and that means most states will work with the EU/US to establish trade relations/get sanctions lifted. China and India will not provide the favorable prices the EU/US will for the same goods. Their ideology looks at this as a situation to exploit, which will lead to lopsided deals. In the case China does invade, Ukraine will have provided a great model for the US and the EU by extension of how to deal with this situation. All the US/EU has to do is exactly what they did with Ukraine. Unlike with Russia (where the ultra nationalist far right has idolized Russia), the support for China is relatively weak in the US. This will be uncontroversial to provide military aid to fend off a Chinese invasion (especially if US troops are marginally involved).
@@recoil53 indeed. China is the exact opposite of a hermit kingdom; they want to be the most powerful and influential state on Earth. Unfortunately for them, people do not trust them as much as they used to.
Paradoxically, a potential breakup of Russia is one of the scariest propositions I could think of. Just imagining nuclear warheads dropping into the hands of crazies sends shivers to my spine. Thank you for this great series - utterly enjoyable, just like this whole channel.
For some time, yes. Fortunately, nukes are very very and expensive to maintain (need a lot of expertise and infrastructure) and the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium will decay over time. Fuel system on missiles is expensive to maintain. Thermonuclear weapons need certain gasses in every two to three years and so forth. Tritium half life is something like 12 years if I remember correctly. Also the launch codes are not easy to bypass. How many of the current nukes is well maintained to begin with? I'm not saying its not scary, but its not as scary as it could be.
@@mielivalta The fissle material alone is a nightmare, a dirty bomb made from it even if not sophisticated could irradiate a large landmass and causing untold cancer and death
@@mielivalta you have made good points, but the thing to remember is, yes a 250 kiloton warhead dropped on a city is bad but, and that’s the key word, all that would need to happen is that some crazy fucktard would have to do is disassemble the warhead and use it as a dirty bomb over a nations farm land, that’s the danger of Russia collapsing, all it takes is one over North America, Europe, or Asia and bam none of us can imagine the casualties much less the aftermath, here’s hoping nothing happens lol, I’m hoping to move back to the home country in a few years, either way all of you stay safe and keep your powder dry, we live in interesting times
As someone who has lived in Russia for a while I would like to point out that there are HUGE differences between Russia and Yugoslavia. Namely, that there are much better relations between ethnic Russians and virtually all other ethnicities (except maybe Chechens). People who have not lived in Russia struggle to appreciate the fact that Tartars, Bashkirs, Dagestanis or Yakuts are not yearning for independence, they just want a larger share of the oil money and maybe more cultural autonomy, including status of their own language
@@นงนภัสเวเลคอฟสกี้-ว5ฌ The autonomous republics are not very prosperous except maybe Tatarstan. If you look at how people live in Dagestan or Buryatia it is significantly worse than in any European Russian city. Nevertheless, treatment of ethnic minorities is definitely better than treatment of native Americans in USA as you say.
The effects of global warming on the region should be taken into account, especially in the Russian far east, Siberia and the rapidly thawing Arctic Circle. It will be a hotbed of competition for resources, shipping lanes, strategic advantages and business opportunities. Not only will all the major players be involved but even nations like Canada, and Denmark (through Greenland) become involved the closer one gets to the North Pole.
@@teckmenglee8060 How exacly does it affect the west? Anti-global warming regulations are doing more harm than global warming itself,at least in the EU.
I know that you couldn't cover everything, but it is very important not to forget about Africa and how much they depended on Russian grain and food imports. It would be a dangerous time that could unleash a new wave of uncertainty and instability across the African continent
Thank you for this 'hypothetical' series. Also thank you for the 'visual aids' in this video. The little graphics really help drive the point across to some of us who are a bit more visual in learning. If possible please continue to add these visual aids (IE; the little AK's moving across the screen to show weapons transfer, or the smoke/icons showing internal strife, etc). Thanks for the amazing production quality! ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thank you for this fascinating and well-considered report! I learned a lot. I will point out that there is one major factor that everyone keeps leaving out--or rather two factors that will seek to resolve each other. 1) China's population collapse is drastically skewed to a mostly male population. 2) Not only has Russia's population collapse been worsened by the war, but this worsening has most drastically drained marriageable men from its Asian regions--the regions bordering China. No border will stand up to the necessity for these two populations to combine.
If the RF financial situation continues to decline toward bankruptcy as it is, then this could be the trigger to instability across the federation and lead to regions gaining some greater local control. The breakup could go in stages versus a sudden collapse. The RF is the unnatural compote of peoples, languages and regions pulled together by the czars and the CCCP and such groupings are inherently unstable. Empires are gone. They don’t work in a modern world. I believe the RF will decay and crumble once the financial situation starts the process.
@@deivydasjuonys6487 But Argentina is doing much worse with the economy than in comparison with the Russian Federation. Argentina holds the record for the number of bankruptcies and in the 20th century Argentina was also the aggressor, attacking the Falkland Islands, which belong to Britain. As a result, Argentina lost and the regime fell. (I know that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the conflict in the Falkland Islands are not correct to compare. But I asked about the economy, and not who the aggressor is).
While this is certainly preaching to the choir, I always enjoy reminding people of the Budapest memorandum as most still have not heard about it. Good job summarizing it here.
@@Lausanamo I have the greatest respect for the person who made this video. He has obviously gone to the trouble of learning English as a non-native speaker. That could not have been easy.
@@tbyte007 I myself am not a native speaker, and from where I'm from(France), people consistantly correct each other as well as tourists. This is very annoying. But I believe unless the mistake in the foreign language is one that can spread to other people, such as when it is made by a parent or teacher, then it is not worth correcting.
@@Lausanamo You both make good points, but I believe in the spread of correct knowledge, so I'm in favor of correction. That's what I would want when I attempt to speak a foreign language, or even when I make an error in my native language. It helps me to become better.
@@luongo7886 They surely will. Right now they observe and learn. Who will stop the Chinese if they'll do the same what Russia done on the Crimea? Sending unmarked soldiers to one of the Syberian regions separated from the Russian Federation won't be a problem for them. Chinese have long claimed rights to parts of land currently owned by Russia.
@Lương Đỗ what I've actually been thinking too as a non-liberal Appalachian American, China wants Russia to keep up the invasion to not only debt trap them to back their near artic nation claims, but to use russians as bullet sponges for a tiawan invasion, and finally to annex much of russia in debt relief, the greedy Chinese are still very upset over Manchuria
If you look from the perspective of the last couple of thousand years Russia is not just another European state. It is more next in line of the empires born on eastern steps, like Scythians, Khazars, Huns, Mongols. All of those empires disappeared without a trace.
@@pawew.6830 Exactly! And what do you think Russia will do? If that happens, I think America will help Russia like they are helping the Ukraine right now. How ironic, isn’t it?
Just one nitpick. Oil and gas is being portrayed as a major, traded resource in the future. That is unlikely. One of the unintended consequences of the current war is to push energy importing countries harder towards renewable energy and energy self-sufficiency. It's likely that China will also move in this direction, based on rational self-intetest. And it begs the question of what other exports will replace oil and gas in present fossil fuel exporting countries.
Rare Earth minerals, materials used in batteries (lithium, cobalt, etc.), copper, timber, probably steel. Assuming that a full transition to renewable (and nuclear?) energy is physically and politically/economically possible, there probably won't be a single "master resource" that gets universally traded and fought over like oil, except maybe water as climate change worsens.
I like your content covering geopolitics, but all of this speculation is a bit boring. I'm 8 minutes in, and every sentence seems to start with "possibly," "could," or "perhaps." I think your other content is more important, or at least it was more engaging. Still, however, your videos are very well made. There's lots to unpack from each and every one.
Interesting series of videos. However, I do not think you adequately explained why the collapse of the Russian empire would be likely to result in a series of smaller states. As you rightly note, there have been two Russian collapses over the last 100+ years - a not uncommon event, therefore - but both times the successor state was, by and large, a continuation of what went before. Why should this time be different?
Good questions. The majority here are pro western who are just happy to thumbs up a video that says Russia fails. They are unwilling to critique the scenario postulated.
I would not be that sure that Germany (and others) will put much effort in reorganisation of Eastern European energy supply. We are in the process of becoming "CO2-free" and there will be no more demand for fossile energy source. Moreover, once we (hopefully) succeed, other nations may follow this example and switch to energy which is for free and does not imply dependency on other countries.
That's the future. People and "experts" alike always asume disuption will take many decades and will go slow and orderly. In reality it always follows the same s-curve every time and we jump from 10 to 80% adoption in the span of a single decade. Only leaving the edgecases that will adopt over time as technology further develops. We are quickly moving in on that 10% as we speak and the economics are rapidly moving towards renewables being the only option for any economy to maintain its competitiveness.
After what happened to Ukraine no country will *EVER* agree for denuclearization and give up their nukes. As of today most Ukrainians consider Budapest Memorandum the singular worst failure in Ukraine's independent history. Exchanging the most powerful weapons in the world, which guaranteed immunity to invasion, for empty promises.
Great analysis as always. One contention/suggestion - in the case of Russian migration into Old continent -> it might actually be rather Eastern part of EU this time, which would be most natural and most preferred target destination (similarly to fleeing Ukrainian refugees today) ... or in different type of balance between West and East at least (compared to African/Middle East migrants)
One thing I would add to the point about massive economical growth of some post communist countries - its not about suddenly understanding how to make money or just about not being exploited puppets of Moscow anymore. For example pre communist Czechoslovakia was *really* developed, in early 1920s it was one of the most developed countries globally and its later GDP per capita and wages was easily comparable to those of of Austria or Finland. Since 90% of all of that was due to economical power of Bohemia and Moravia, its easy to see why Prague had the third highest GDP per capita of all the EU regions in 2019. In general, many people see Europe through the cold war optics and dont look into pre cold war era, which would reveal so much about what and why goes on with the economy, opinions and politics of these countries.
Very insightfil, even if highly speculative! I see 2 things missing from your analysis: First, the collapse of the USSR led to widespread conflict eg between Armenia/Azerbaijan over Karabakh, Georgia/Abkaziavrtc etc. Its impossible to imagine your scenario without widespread conflict, civil wars, ethnic cleansing etc. How would Siberia & Far East determine their border if not through war? The Chechens would seek to dominate the North Caucusus but surely the Ossetians, Kalmyks etc would resist? Secondly, foreign influence will be key. Would the Far East be aligned to China or Japan/Korea/US? Given the rivalry there this will be a major source of tension. Im surprised you see few changes in the west. Given the major draw of euro-atlantic integration for both economic and cultural reasons, wouldnt Karelia, Kuban, possibly even St Petersburg want to split from Moscow and join the EU?
Something important to know, for all who are interested in history and/or support Ukraine: Rus' ought not to be confused with modern “Russia”, which derives its name from the Rus' but historically is a completely different state, which almost all its existence was at war with the Rus'. Just like the Holy Roman Empire was actually Germany, “Russia” is actually Muscovy, despite their best attempts to convince everybody otherwise. Its name “Russia" received only in the 18th century, when Peter I simply changed Muscovy’s name into the “All Russian Empire” (Russia originates from Rosia, name used by the Greek Orthodox Clergy in regards to Rus') Under the reign of Cathrine II Muscovites where even punished for continuing to identify as Muscovites, and were forced to call themselves Russian. Lands that Russia (Muscovy) claims were part of the original Rus', but actually weren't, are Novgorod, Suzdal, and Ryazan, since in historical texts of XI-XII centuries they are mentioned as separate entities from Rus'. They can be considered parts of extended Rus', although their culture was distinct from main Rus'. In 1493, Muscovite duke Ivan III appointed himself to be the Great Ruler of All Rus'. No other kings acknowledged that. From that point on Muscovy started to make false claims on Rus' ownership. “Russia” is an offshoot of Ukraine and not the other way round, despite what Soviet and Russian (Muscovite) historians have been trying to say for years. A Slavicised Finnic, then later, Mongolized offshoot. Kyiv was a developed cultured capital when Moscow was just another swamp village. Germany used to call itself the Holy Roman Empire, that didn’t mean they became the Romans, and all of a sudden had a right to claim whole of Italy and its history, but yet, that’s exactly what Russia (Muscovy) did in regards to Rus'-Ukraine, which is a horrible injustice!
here we go again, no, Germany did not call itself the Holy Roman Empire, Germany did not exist till 1870, the Holy Roman Empire was ruled by the Habsburgs for 600 years, starting in 1273, if you continue to falsify history, nobody will believe your side of the Ukrainian history en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habsburg_monarchy
Yes. Putin supporters (the "Z" cults), like Trump supporters (the "Q" cults), may not want to acknowledge ACTUAL history --- saying it's something else --- but when the GREAT KHAN's armies marched into eastern Europe, the land they clearly conquered was from Kyiv to Moscow, known as Kyivan Rus, NOT "Russia" or even "Moscow," both of which are modern constructs. Nobody --- not people in Ukraine or people in Russia today and no other educated historian or ordinary person --- said Mongols never existed and they never conquered eastern-northern Europe all the way to & through the Polish-Hungarian-Slovac-Romanian regions. Different people & different historians gave different accounts as to why the Mongols didn't push further and into Western Europe, when they had already conquered all of eastern Europe; some said because of the severe weather and terrains; others said because some of the leaders had to return to the east, for the election of another Great Khan, due to the passing of Genghis son, so on and so forth... But what is NOT disputed, again, is that when the Mongols conquered what we would today describe as "Eastern Europe" ---- from present day Black Sea, Romania, Slovakia, Hungray, Ukraine, Poland, Moscow ---- words like "Moscow" or "Russians" did NOT exist. It's KYIV (and other Slavic tribes in or around Kyiv) that did. One other thing, as you noted, that NEITHER Ukrainians NOR Russians dispute.... is that BOTH modern Ukrainians and Russians claim to have started from tribes in or around today KYIV; so, as you said, it is NOT Moscow that gave birth to Kyiv; it's the opposite. Asserting Moscow gave birth to Kyiv and that's why Moscow has the historical right to "reclaim it" (like Putin's Alternate Reality supporters do), for example, would be like asserting Washington gave birth to London and it has the right to "reclaim," for "historical reasons" (like Trump's Alternate Reality supporters sometimes would do). That is just utter rubbish. Russians know it and so does everybody else. But Putin and his crazy "Z" supporters, again, are cult people like Trump and his "Q" supporters: they PRETEND they're from Flat Land, an Alternate Reality where history as we know it on Earth is alien to them; they make random assertions as they wanted. BTW, the "Holy Roman Empire," a bastardizing of the phrase ROMAN EMPIRE ----- as you noted, which allowed Hitler & Others to arbitrarily assert that the GERMANIC PEOPLE had a glorious & advanced CIVILIZATION stretching back "2,000 years".... and that means, Hitler said, if the Germans of his time, 1920s - 40s, wanted to RETURN to that glorious root of theirs, they needed to do it though Hitler's mighty and victorious NAZI regime... and THAT was by rejecting the subhumans like the Jews, the "Asiatics" (that's what they called the Russians & others a bit to the east of them, DUE to the influence/conquest by Asians/the Mongols) & others --- it NEVER WAS an empire... so, forget about it being a "holy" one... It's really THE DARK AGES of Europe, literally.... And, BTW, that "Holy Roman Empire" started around the time crazy CHRISTIANS were strong enough to convert the first (& weak) Roman Emperor, Constantine, in early 300AD. Historians like to say it's in the middle of the 400AD (476AD, etc) that secular Rome fell; but that's just fancy record keeping. Again, by the time CRAZY, illiterate Christians killed the great and last Greek mathematician, Hypatia, in Alexendria (today Egypt), in early 400AD.... it was ALREADY TOO LATE... most books and other real secular Roman and Greek knowledge and institutions were burnt or destroyed by Christians. The fall of ROME really started in Constantine's time, early 300AD. From the time Christians murdered the last great Greek scientist, early 400AD, to the beginning of the Italian Renaissance, 1400s..... it generally was, again, known & described as the DARK AGES of Europe, literally. Christians, again, burnt any and all scientific books ... as well as books on commerce and trade, politics & governance.... books and ideas and human advances made and shared, from the time of CLEISTHENES and PERICLES down to Alexander, who built the great city of ALEXANDRIA, in northern Egypt, ~300BC... where, again, the last great NON-CHRISTIAN Greek astronomer and mathematician Hypatia lived ... where she was murdered, in broad day light, by Christians, for teaching unGodly ideas, etc. Any and all things that Greeks and Romans had gotten from Northern Africa, the Middle East, Persia, India, China.... anything that dealt with mathematics, medicine, science, astronomy.... all were destroyed, burnt, or banned by the time of Hypatia's murder. THAT is the real history of Europe.... The Romans and Greeks were the ONLY TWO TRIBES who became CIVILIZATIONS..... not the illiterate Germanic tribes (like the Vandals, Goths, etc.) or the Vikings or the Franks or the Norse or the Slavs (from which the term SLAVIC came, from which the term SLAVE came).... or any others, like the English and Spaniards and Portuguese who would "made it big" some hundreds of years later...
Very good series. I'm happy to see you use and list sources and offer your own perspective. Too many of the other channels out there just speculate through a western lens, without any deep understanding of the region.
Man, you are likely never been in Sineria and Far East to think it could be different states). These areas are sooooo huge, so desolate that it's typical to have a closest neighboring town in 250 km)). All Siberia plus Far East have he same population as Moscow agglomeration. Everybody who thinks on its future moves to central and Souther Russia. The longer typical Siberian town exists, the less elder people it has. Who actually built those states? Sullen silent people immersed in their everyday problems? Whose children moved to Moscow 10 years ago. Man, you have no idea what you're talking about). But I was born in Siberia, molded by it. The majority of my classmates didn't leave region the size of 2 France simply because it's too long and too expensive to travel somewhere. It's a dead territory. The best way for everyone beyound 30 is to leave it and forget forever. Ans what's more important 90% are Russians). All the national Siberian minorities are too little in number and to poor to do something as establishing new states. No man, Siberia will remain a resource colony for Moscow, which will continue to sell its colonies to China.
The bigger issue about the speculation about "militias" is whether or not there's going to really be anyone left. Most of the remaining "soldiers" are brand new with little to no training. This is pretty unlikely as there are only a handful soldiers with any real training. More likely, the US, and by extent the EU, would be to put a western friendly leader in power in Russia. This is a disaster for China, but they don't have the ability to come to the negotiation table as a result of the war's conclusion and who they backed. The bottom line is Putin is likely out. China doesn't have enough leverage in a post-Ukraine War as they backed the wrong horse here.
Turning towards the West would be by far the best move for new emerging states. The West has huge economic, diplomatic and military ressources and they are willing to welcome them as independent nations. They additionally wouldnt seek to exploit their ressources and submit them like for example China.
@@Fillipok That's cute. All a Russian can do is harm civilians, innocents, women and children. Defeat is coming and every day it becomes more obvious. Russian Army started to burn their own ammunition in the backline in order to try to stop the war on its tracks. It is already a ruined state, ready to fall like dominoes.
I couldn't find the free access to Janusz Bugajski's book in the description; if want to have a look, you google the title of the book and "pdf" however and can find it freely available provided by the Jamestown Foundation.
Were Russia to collapse, then the transatlantic strategic partnership will face an uncertain future without a unifying threat. Unlike eastern Europe, Western Europe just doesn't view China as a threat, so it wouldn't be disincentivized from competing with the US for influence over Greenland-Iceland and South America.
A Russian collapse would make the transatlantic partnership even more necessary, at least until all the nukes and nuclear materials were tracked down and some sort of stability achieved for the new post-Russian states. Given that the West, especially the US, has not shown much success at "nation-building" in recent decades, the Atlantic-Pacific alliance will have to get good at it, and if possible work out cooperative deals with China. Ultimately, everybody benefits if the region currently under Muscovite control is stable and peaceful, and war between the West and China can be avoided. Hopefully, our "leaders" will understand this, and not end the world over ego, greed, and lust for power.
As A Kazakh 🇰🇿, I am excited that My Country will soon be more important than ever before if Ruspizdetskiys Rotten Empire were to ever collapse for the third time in their life.
What about the military option for de-nuclearization? Since nobody wants nukes to go around willy nilly, and no political solution exists, i'd almost expect spontaneous coordination between china and nato to just walk in amongst the chaos and secure nuclear sites from the east and the west. I'd also expect the nukes to be unusable in the short window of time after breakup, just like they were in ukraine.
NATO would secure the western russian regions while China would secure the middle region along with parts of the southern region. The US would probably secure parts of the eastern region using bases in Japan and South Korea.
yeah Russians wouldn’t take too kindly to a foreign occupation. Most Russians hate the west and would literally fight Taliban or Vietnam style against any so called peacekeeping force. Russia is too big and uninvadvable to control or coordinate an occupation. China would also never leave the territories that they go to secure nuclear weapons. and also Russia wont collapse since 70% of Russians are ethnic Russians.
@@Nils.Minimalist Yea I bet like 20% of them actually work. But thats enough, because you can still take the fissile material off the ICBM and make dirty bombs with it.
Excellent analysis. I would add one further factor that permeates it all: the undeniable fact that chaos is cash. This is significant in that certain persons and groups are inevitably both shielded from the negative effects of chaos and better positioned to acquire control of the resulting flow of cash. For an example consider who the main benefactors were of Russia's previous transitions from Tsarist form to Soviet form and then to Neotsarist form. Hint: to find the benefactors of that last transformation look for the superyachts.
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I can see china taking back far east republic state. I would hope that once putin dies, china makes the the first move and takes back its ancestral lands
1991
PLEASE USE ANTI- COLONIAL TERMINOLOGY , YOU SAID - MOSCOW EMPIRE, WRITE IT ON YOUR MAP INSTEAD OF SO - CALLED - " RUSSIAN FEDERATION "
Some points to ponder not covered in your excellent presentation.
1. Look at a population density map of Russia....with a total population of 140,000,00, 80% resided in European Russia or about 112 million with the remaining 28 million scattered throughout the remaining vastness of Asian Russia. That 28 million is about the populations of Belgium and the Netherlands combined.
2. By definition a nation's sovereignty requires control of its borders. An impossible task for your sketch of Far Eastern Russia, Siberian Russia, and the Ural manning tens of thousands of miles. Especially considering that those populations are clustered on small cities and towns.
3. Break up will result in landlocked territories with scant transportation to world markets....Who gets controll of the Russian rail system components. Siberian republic claims the train roadways. Moscow says, ok, but all our locomotives, freight, maintence trains, etc return to Moscovy, leaving unusable rail tracks.
4. Transport of goods across borders within that vastness could not be effectively controlled, no customs, no duties, no income.
5. None of those three eastern divisions would develop economically save for a few enclaves generating energy sources. Same with coastal areas.
6. European Russian in such a scenario would lose control of the eastern pipelines as they would be vulnerable along their entire length despite the possibility of transit duties at every pass through state.
Your presentation always provoke closer thoughts about possibilities and consequences...far reaching.
Thank you.
Do a US collapse next 👉🏼😵💫👈🏽
I love how we all went from "Will Ukraine fall in 3 days?" to "What are thr consequences of Russia collapsing?"
At the end of 2023, the question will be “will Russia collapse in the next 3 days?”
"Reality is stranger than fiction"
What are the consequences of the United States Collapsing?
This was predicted. Russia will collapse when Ukrainian sun rises, too hard to stomache.
@@donald2665 Will never happen during YOUR life!
Could you do a video about global birth rates?
The main reason for low birth rates in countries like Korea and China is just the ridiculous costs piled onto young people.
Which country is willing to lower those costs, despite short term economic fallout?
In the 60s costs were low, life was simple, jobs were worth it. Oh, how that has changed for my generation.
The solution isn't hard, or complicated, but different to any other problem we've faced.
A good topic in my opinion.
Cost of living isn't the only reason. Lack of socialization and loneliness also stack on to the already catastrophically low birth rates.
its called capitalism, the squeezing of profits out of overworked populations, capitalism does not care about reproduction because it only aims to gain profits short term
Broker here and in the US at least we have managed the issue well. 30% of 25 year Olds own a home.
@@fareflight2029 Well if the situation in terms of work and financials was easier for young people, that issue would be solved.
In China, 1/5 young people are jobless. In S. Korea things aren't better
asia is INSANELY focused on education. Like literally to the point where it's unhealthy - you put your studies before everything else in your life.
Also I don't think the cost is the biggest reason. Many people choose their careers over starting a family which is quite normal in the west and it's effects are not as bad.
both japan and korea have "tried" to encourage people to have more children but their efforts were laughable. Nothing will change unless they start to recognize it as a problem and actually take steps to fix societal issues.
This channel has emerged from the clutter to distinguish itself.
A must- watch for those interested in the larger picture of Eurasia and the post-WW2 world.
Regards,
Kev
thanks Kev
Why because it's anti-Russian?
@@TheRealBillBob ok bot
@@TheRealBillBob I mean, russia is a land of lies, so I suppose you could say that speaking the truth is "anti-russian"
"Yugoslavian war on steroids"
this is happening RIGHT NOW.
a communist metropolis attacked former colonies.
and i bet moscow will be totally unable to repeat it right after the upcoming defeat.
Sounds epic
U r correct.
Love that idea
Yuuuuup
An excellent series, no one has addressed these scenarious as thoroughly. Most commentators insist on extrapolating the present, unchanged, but only one thing is guaranteed - change!
Almost everyone is talking about it
More people have adressed these issues more thoroughly.
This series was a nice recap, peppered with Grey CGP's rules of power, but also missed a lot and gave wish-wash coverall scenarios.
Provided a good basic understanding of politics in general, I think a day of research plus some ChatGPT inquiries can prepare a script like this.
What will happen in Russia's future will be more dramatic by a factor of hundred.
@@Enyavar1 Well, if you know so much more, why don't you post an explanatory video. We would all like to know more about what will most likely happen from a real expert like yourself. Don't hold out on us - let's hear it ?
@@ericwillis777 Never claimed to be an expert though, only that the script was not revealing any new insights to me, but missed several things.
But yeah, pay me for a day's work, and I'll crib you together the script you want.
Visual effects and reading it for the audience - now THAT you will have to do in your own studio. Vlogging on youtube requires more than a script.
@@Enyavar1 I would't pay a self appointed, self acclaimed, know- it- all, a nickle for anything but his own hummiliation - I'm not suprised that you think that what you learn, or don't learn, is of any interest to anyone except yourself. Perhaps you should spend your time more fruitfully by seeking what you conside better sources of information, and leave the mundane, which is, of course, far below your level of erudition, for the rest of us, who don't aspire to your own, high, levels of hubris and self esteem.
If Russia were to break up i wouldn't be surprised if the republics start acting exactly like what Russia currently is.
Yeah I don't see a democratic turn taking place anywhere in current Russia... All the ethnic groups inside Russia are in love with strong men who do nothing but exploit them...
There would be a few free countries that would form out of it but yes, most would still remain a authoritarian shithole with nukes.
Eh, they'd have shorter reach. As long as the nukes are secured then the rest of the situation can sort itself out.
By what republic? Those are weak, even the checens are incapable of this. Moscow would not let this happen
@@Alex-hu5eg When Russia dies. Instead of Moscow should be independent Zalessia Rus Federation.Novgorod Republic,Pskov Republic. Russians deserve better oppurtunites to have aforomentioned Republics as the new Fatherlands.
Considering the shaky economy, I'm keen to know best, how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and sometimes earn up to $160K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
I concur to financial planning. I'm quite lucky exposed to finance at an early age, started job at 19, purchased first home at 28, got laid-off work at 36 just after the rona-outbreak in 2020, going forward, immediately hired an advisor to keep my head above water, and in return, I'm only 25% short of $1m after subsequent investments to date.
My Financial adviser is ‘’JULIE ANNE HOOVER’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
When this series is done it needs to be reuploaded but all together too. Its a VERY good documentary series.
I love this series, it sheds light on parts I couldn't even imagine, thank you for your work!
Hey GTBT, I think this could be a very interesting and important video topic. I live in the US and this is controversial but there is a very clear authoritarian movement growing in this country. As someone constantly exposed to American media it’s hard to understand but an outside perspective could be helpful for a lot of people.
Can you expend a little bit more on that? It is a common trend in Europe. It's the only answer in the eyes of the governments to the civil unrest and public dissatisfaction caused by gradually lowering the standard of living and ever widening wealth inequality. What's your perspective living in the US?
Europe and America will fall before Russia or China
"there is a very clear authoritarian movement growing in this country"
Yeah. It's called CONSERVATISM. Always has been. Extremist rightwing conservative republicunts and useless centrist democraps. Groups like climate activists, IPCC, Antinatalists, Atheists, LGBTQ groups get SILENCED.
Look at Florida's anti-constitutional attempts to silence/ban talking about homosexuality and transgender people.
Yet politicians are COWARDS and refuse to stop REAL QUANTIFIABLE PHYSICAL HARMS, EVILS, such as the Holocaust of factory farming.
@@peao010109 I agree with everything you said except Id like to caveat that with, while the majority Democratic Party is inherently tied to corporate interests and complacent by inaction, it is the only party( of two😫) that actively hold up American institutions. The Republican Party on the other hand is the aggressor of pushing unpopular, terrifying policy and rhetoric that I and a lot Americans find extremely threatening. The right has a very powerful propaganda arm that had successfully brainwashed millions of people into a false reality…
@@liquidus ditto!
Japan would get it’s islands back and provide recognition in return definitely economic help.
Does Japan really need those islands though with a dwindling population of their own
@@AngelSonevski 125 million population.
@@haruka6672 Yes but you would only need new land if the pop was growing :v Japan's is lowering last time I checked
@@AngelSonevski It is a necessity.
@@haruka6672 It is a big population.
You might be overestimating the value of nuclear weapons in post-breakup states. It's not always appreciated that such weapons have a limited shelf life. They require periodic maintenance and remanufacturing to remain usable. If successor states lack the local capacity to perform such servicing activity those assets will become worthless militarily.
Even if they can’t explode like a nuke would, the radioactive materials in them can still be used by terrorists to make dirty bombs.
They will still be a problem in terms of nuclear profilerarion and terrorists getting their hands on the expired warheads. You don't need weapons grade material for dirty bombs.
Yeah, but the factor of uncertainty remains.
I started watching this episode, then I realized it was the last of a series, I wanted to go back and watch it from the begining but I could not, it is so catching that I couldn't stop watching it.
An interesting topic. Autocratic countries are always unstable. But Russia is so big and diverse, with so many outside and inside actors, that it is impossible to predict.
I naively hope for a revolution and the emergence of a democratic Russia
For socialistic Russia.
@@HozainBoss socialism is democratic. So I choose this way too
@@NeSteve Well, it can be. Or not. Democratic socialism seems like the way to go.
@@incognitotorpedo42 it's very easy to get confused here. democratic socialism is not the socialism I am talking about.
Corruption seems to be to normalised in russia for democracy to flourish. It would need a great shift in social norms first.
What an amazing series! I look forward to seeing what next geopolitical event you'll be looking at!
Excellent analysis! Back in September I was arguing this same point with a friend about China feeling the need to secure territory to the north in the event of a Russian collapse. China pushing north to claim territory may sound out of character for the hermit kingdom, however doing may be seen as a major positive so long as their expansionism is framed through the lens of global security. Not everyone would find this so positive, however, and as you pointed out the US would be equally inclined to create a buffer in the Russian far east. I would also add that SK, Japan, and Canada would be likely to join the US since a China which claims territory north of North Korea would gain ports that are outside Western containment in the South China Sea . Likewise, North Korea would NOT be happy about such a move, and would be inclined to retaliate (or at least kick and scream)
Yes, China will secure adjacent regions if Russia will collapse. But it's more likely that China will simply help the Moscow based government to return control of those brake away "republics". Much better global publicity and less problematic
North Korea is the Hermit Kingdom, not China. China is not walled off from the world.
And it doesn't seem out of character at all. China already has maps showing cities that used to be in China, but now in Russia, under their Chinese names.
Also, the arc of Russian-Chinese diplomacy at the moment is giving China more access to those areas. Why wouldn't they just take it if there is a break-up?
@@MATyoriy77 This is under the assumption that the new Moscow leadership will be pro-Beijing. The assumption is going to be that Russia is going to break apart as a result of the Ukrainian War being such an epic disaster for Russia that the government literally can't maintain control over it's entire country. Any post Ukrainian War government in any part of Russia will work to realign itself in a way that will secure themselves. Any primary goal of post war negotiations/alliances on the part of any post Russian state will be to secure capital, and that means most states will work with the EU/US to establish trade relations/get sanctions lifted. China and India will not provide the favorable prices the EU/US will for the same goods. Their ideology looks at this as a situation to exploit, which will lead to lopsided deals.
In the case China does invade, Ukraine will have provided a great model for the US and the EU by extension of how to deal with this situation. All the US/EU has to do is exactly what they did with Ukraine. Unlike with Russia (where the ultra nationalist far right has idolized Russia), the support for China is relatively weak in the US. This will be uncontroversial to provide military aid to fend off a Chinese invasion (especially if US troops are marginally involved).
In less than a decade, China will annex most of Eastern Russia, i.e., "Asian" Russia!
@@recoil53 indeed. China is the exact opposite of a hermit kingdom; they want to be the most powerful and influential state on Earth. Unfortunately for them, people do not trust them as much as they used to.
This series has been excellent, love your work & looking forward to your next video.
Paradoxically, a potential breakup of Russia is one of the scariest propositions I could think of. Just imagining nuclear warheads dropping into the hands of crazies sends shivers to my spine.
Thank you for this great series - utterly enjoyable, just like this whole channel.
It's already in the hands of crazies - just with ones who has enough stuff to lose.
For some time, yes. Fortunately, nukes are very very and expensive to maintain (need a lot of expertise and infrastructure) and the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium will decay over time. Fuel system on missiles is expensive to maintain. Thermonuclear weapons need certain gasses in every two to three years and so forth. Tritium half life is something like 12 years if I remember correctly. Also the launch codes are not easy to bypass. How many of the current nukes is well maintained to begin with?
I'm not saying its not scary, but its not as scary as it could be.
They're going to need those nukes to keep China at bay...
@@mielivalta The fissle material alone is a nightmare, a dirty bomb made from it even if not sophisticated could irradiate a large landmass and causing untold cancer and death
@@mielivalta you have made good points, but the thing to remember is, yes a 250 kiloton warhead dropped on a city is bad but, and that’s the key word, all that would need to happen is that some crazy fucktard would have to do is disassemble the warhead and use it as a dirty bomb over a nations farm land, that’s the danger of Russia collapsing, all it takes is one over North America, Europe, or Asia and bam none of us can imagine the casualties much less the aftermath, here’s hoping nothing happens lol, I’m hoping to move back to the home country in a few years, either way all of you stay safe and keep your powder dry, we live in interesting times
Could you make another video on this series, giving a more detailed analysis of the impact to neighbouring countries? Mongolia, Central Asia, Caucasus
As someone who has lived in Russia for a while I would like to point out that there are HUGE differences between Russia and Yugoslavia. Namely, that there are much better relations between ethnic Russians and virtually all other ethnicities (except maybe Chechens). People who have not lived in Russia struggle to appreciate the fact that Tartars, Bashkirs, Dagestanis or Yakuts are not yearning for independence, they just want a larger share of the oil money and maybe more cultural autonomy, including status of their own language
In Russia, the ethnic minorities have their own prosperous autonomous republics. In the USA, the native Americans have RESERVATIONS.
@@นงนภัสเวเลคอฟสกี้-ว5ฌ The autonomous republics are not very prosperous except maybe Tatarstan. If you look at how people live in Dagestan or Buryatia it is significantly worse than in any European Russian city. Nevertheless, treatment of ethnic minorities is definitely better than treatment of native Americans in USA as you say.
@@benedict9870 ANY European Russian city? Boy, you sure made a lot of typos whole writing "Moscow".
@@polpol8956 No, he did not.
@@นงนภัสเวเลคอฟสกี้-ว5ฌ those “autonomous” republics are shitholes compared to western russia you damm well know that
The effects of global warming on the region should be taken into account, especially in the Russian far east, Siberia and the rapidly thawing Arctic Circle. It will be a hotbed of competition for resources, shipping lanes, strategic advantages and business opportunities. Not only will all the major players be involved but even nations like Canada, and Denmark (through Greenland) become involved the closer one gets to the North Pole.
global warming greatly affects western and asian cities but less so for Russia since tgeir land mass is so huge.
@@teckmenglee8060 How exacly does it affect the west? Anti-global warming regulations are doing more harm than global warming itself,at least in the EU.
I know that you couldn't cover everything, but it is very important not to forget about Africa and how much they depended on Russian grain and food imports. It would be a dangerous time that could unleash a new wave of uncertainty and instability across the African continent
Africa also depends on Ukrainian grain, which most likely will be a shortage this year to Africa!
Your channel, Perun, and Caspian Report has become my go-to for everything related to current geo-politics.
Incredibly detailed and well explained. Brilliant analysis
Just boosting the algorithm. Thanks for the great content.
I was waiting for this hope there's more to come amazing work guys.
Great work - most informative and probably a glimpse of the future - thank you
Can't wait for it..!!
Renaot B me too.
Thank you for this 'hypothetical' series. Also thank you for the 'visual aids' in this video. The little graphics really help drive the point across to some of us who are a bit more visual in learning. If possible please continue to add these visual aids (IE; the little AK's moving across the screen to show weapons transfer, or the smoke/icons showing internal strife, etc). Thanks for the amazing production quality! ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
О да, мы ждали!
Thank you for this fascinating and well-considered report! I learned a lot.
I will point out that there is one major factor that everyone keeps leaving out--or rather two factors that will seek to resolve each other. 1) China's population collapse is drastically skewed to a mostly male population. 2) Not only has Russia's population collapse been worsened by the war, but this worsening has most drastically drained marriageable men from its Asian regions--the regions bordering China. No border will stand up to the necessity for these two populations to combine.
If the RF financial situation continues to decline toward bankruptcy as it is, then this could be the trigger to instability across the federation and lead to regions gaining some greater local control. The breakup could go in stages versus a sudden collapse. The RF is the unnatural compote of peoples, languages and regions pulled together by the czars and the CCCP and such groupings are inherently unstable. Empires are gone. They don’t work in a modern world. I believe the RF will decay and crumble once the financial situation starts the process.
Argentina didn't collapse. Why should the Russian Federation break up?
America is an empire that exists today. And why would the territories inside russia try to leave the nation? The penalties are much bigger that way.
@@gladiator-cd1yu Argentina and Russian Federation are to different entities. Russia is aggressor, Argentina is not.
@@markobucevic8991 This is about America not the Russia. Is clearly off topic about USA.
@@deivydasjuonys6487 But Argentina is doing much worse with the economy than in comparison with the Russian Federation. Argentina holds the record for the number of bankruptcies and in the 20th century Argentina was also the aggressor, attacking the Falkland Islands, which belong to Britain. As a result, Argentina lost and the regime fell. (I know that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the conflict in the Falkland Islands are not correct to compare. But I asked about the economy, and not who the aggressor is).
I commend you for understanding that nuclear weapons are effectively useless, though extraordinarily "valuable" as an "exchangeable resource."
>EU would most likely open doors
Like it did to anyone trying to escape mobilization in Russia?
Lol true
While this is certainly preaching to the choir, I always enjoy reminding people of the Budapest memorandum as most still have not heard about it. Good job summarizing it here.
Who’s watching on June 24th?😅😂😂
Let's try it and find out for sure.
Notification squad. Keep up the great work!
Thank you... This 3 part series gave me a much deeper understanding of the geopolitics in this area of the world... Bravo👍
I really enjoy your video. Very thought provoking. BTW, the "u" in the words "guarantee" and "guard" are silent.
Not very nice to correct people, unless they pretend to be perfect, which they don't.
@@Lausanamo why? I like when I'm being corrected coz that way I learn faster.
@@Lausanamo I have the greatest respect for the person who made this video. He has obviously gone to the trouble of learning English as a non-native speaker. That could not have been easy.
@@tbyte007 I myself am not a native speaker, and from where I'm from(France), people consistantly correct each other as well as tourists. This is very annoying.
But I believe unless the mistake in the foreign language is one that can spread to other people, such as when it is made by a parent or teacher, then it is not worth correcting.
@@Lausanamo You both make good points, but I believe in the spread of correct knowledge, so I'm in favor of correction. That's what I would want when I attempt to speak a foreign language, or even when I make an error in my native language. It helps me to become better.
Good video. But I think the possibility that China may be inclined to take back Outer Manchuria is much greater than indicated.
Change is inevitable, it's the kind of change that will surprise everyone
Best type of videos to fall asleep to. Thanks👍🏻
Being Russian myself it's interesting for me to listen your point of view and prediction.
I am Vietnamese and I am very scared for Russia's future. I'm afraid that the greedy chinese will attack and take over Russian land in Siberia.
@@luongo7886 They surely will. Right now they observe and learn. Who will stop the Chinese if they'll do the same what Russia done on the Crimea? Sending unmarked soldiers to one of the Syberian regions separated from the Russian Federation won't be a problem for them. Chinese have long claimed rights to parts of land currently owned by Russia.
@Lương Đỗ what I've actually been thinking too as a non-liberal Appalachian American, China wants Russia to keep up the invasion to not only debt trap them to back their near artic nation claims, but to use russians as bullet sponges for a tiawan invasion, and finally to annex much of russia in debt relief, the greedy Chinese are still very upset over Manchuria
If you look from the perspective of the last couple of thousand years Russia is not just another European state. It is more next in line of the empires born on eastern steps, like Scythians, Khazars, Huns, Mongols. All of those empires disappeared without a trace.
@@pawew.6830 Exactly! And what do you think Russia will do?
If that happens, I think America will help Russia like they are helping the Ukraine right now. How ironic, isn’t it?
Very detailed video
As a ukrainian, I can certainly listen to russian collapse scenarios for hours. But these videos are masterfully crafted ❤
Just one nitpick. Oil and gas is being portrayed as a major, traded resource in the future. That is unlikely. One of the unintended consequences of the current war is to push energy importing countries harder towards renewable energy and energy self-sufficiency. It's likely that China will also move in this direction, based on rational self-intetest. And it begs the question of what other exports will replace oil and gas in present fossil fuel exporting countries.
Germanys switch to renewables is a total disaster and theirs no signs of China even being able to go fully renewable let alone trying to
Rare Earth minerals, materials used in batteries (lithium, cobalt, etc.), copper, timber, probably steel. Assuming that a full transition to renewable (and nuclear?) energy is physically and politically/economically possible, there probably won't be a single "master resource" that gets universally traded and fought over like oil, except maybe water as climate change worsens.
Great discussion
I like your content covering geopolitics, but all of this speculation is a bit boring. I'm 8 minutes in, and every sentence seems to start with "possibly," "could," or "perhaps." I think your other content is more important, or at least it was more engaging.
Still, however, your videos are very well made. There's lots to unpack from each and every one.
Excellent video
Swietna Analiza. Dzieki
Great material! Hope it will be instruction for the world
Interesting series of videos. However, I do not think you adequately explained why the collapse of the Russian empire would be likely to result in a series of smaller states. As you rightly note, there have been two Russian collapses over the last 100+ years - a not uncommon event, therefore - but both times the successor state was, by and large, a continuation of what went before. Why should this time be different?
Good questions. The majority here are pro western who are just happy to thumbs up a video that says Russia fails. They are unwilling to critique the scenario postulated.
Tsar fell, Russia never followed the Balkans. Soviets fell, same thing.
Who thinks Putin's demise would do something different?
Good, bad, this time one of the best. Thankyou.
I would not be that sure that Germany (and others) will put much effort in reorganisation of Eastern European energy supply. We are in the process of becoming "CO2-free" and there will be no more demand for fossile energy source. Moreover, once we (hopefully) succeed, other nations may follow this example and switch to energy which is for free and does not imply dependency on other countries.
That's the future. People and "experts" alike always asume disuption will take many decades and will go slow and orderly. In reality it always follows the same s-curve every time and we jump from 10 to 80% adoption in the span of a single decade. Only leaving the edgecases that will adopt over time as technology further develops.
We are quickly moving in on that 10% as we speak and the economics are rapidly moving towards renewables being the only option for any economy to maintain its competitiveness.
Thomas Munich a great foresight.
Thank you Hubert
Thank you for giving us these consinstently high quality videos!!
Yup. This is the most interesting youtube channe about geopolitic, at least for me.👌
60 seconds in I realized I didn’t read the title nor care because your channel is always fuego
I am from Russia. We, russians, dont need world without Russia
After what happened to Ukraine no country will *EVER* agree for denuclearization and give up their nukes. As of today most Ukrainians consider Budapest Memorandum the singular worst failure in Ukraine's independent history. Exchanging the most powerful weapons in the world, which guaranteed immunity to invasion, for empty promises.
" Saddam Putsein the Great Loser" is rapidly sending Muscovy back to 1917.
Hybrid Army of Free World, Down with pootler! I would not be suprised if the Moscow would later on turn into independent Republic of Moscow.
We are certainly living in intense times,
This features gives me some confidence that the inevitable collapse may not end in mutual destruction
Well well... this is awkard.
Great analysis as always.
One contention/suggestion - in the case of Russian migration into Old continent -> it might actually be rather Eastern part of EU this time, which would be most natural and most preferred target destination (similarly to fleeing Ukrainian refugees today) ... or in different type of balance between West and East at least (compared to African/Middle East migrants)
One thing I would add to the point about massive economical growth of some post communist countries - its not about suddenly understanding how to make money or just about not being exploited puppets of Moscow anymore. For example pre communist Czechoslovakia was *really* developed, in early 1920s it was one of the most developed countries globally and its later GDP per capita and wages was easily comparable to those of of Austria or Finland. Since 90% of all of that was due to economical power of Bohemia and Moravia, its easy to see why Prague had the third highest GDP per capita of all the EU regions in 2019. In general, many people see Europe through the cold war optics and dont look into pre cold war era, which would reveal so much about what and why goes on with the economy, opinions and politics of these countries.
Very insightfil, even if highly speculative!
I see 2 things missing from your analysis: First, the collapse of the USSR led to widespread conflict eg between Armenia/Azerbaijan over Karabakh, Georgia/Abkaziavrtc etc. Its impossible to imagine your scenario without widespread conflict, civil wars, ethnic cleansing etc. How would Siberia & Far East determine their border if not through war? The Chechens would seek to dominate the North Caucusus but surely the Ossetians, Kalmyks etc would resist?
Secondly, foreign influence will be key. Would the Far East be aligned to China or Japan/Korea/US? Given the rivalry there this will be a major source of tension.
Im surprised you see few changes in the west. Given the major draw of euro-atlantic integration for both economic and cultural reasons, wouldnt Karelia, Kuban, possibly even St Petersburg want to split from Moscow and join the EU?
Very interesting stuff. How about a similar scenario for the U.S.?
that would be even worse lol
A year later the trends are more in line with a breakup, but there is little overt planning or preparation for it.
Something important to know, for all who are interested in history and/or support Ukraine:
Rus' ought not to be confused with modern “Russia”, which derives its name from the Rus' but historically is a completely different state, which almost all its existence was at war with the Rus'.
Just like the Holy Roman Empire was actually Germany, “Russia” is actually Muscovy, despite their best attempts to convince everybody otherwise.
Its name “Russia" received only in the 18th century, when Peter I simply changed Muscovy’s name into the “All Russian Empire” (Russia originates from Rosia, name used by the Greek Orthodox Clergy in regards to Rus')
Under the reign of Cathrine II Muscovites where even punished for continuing to identify as Muscovites, and were forced to call themselves Russian.
Lands that Russia (Muscovy) claims were part of the original Rus', but actually weren't, are Novgorod, Suzdal, and Ryazan, since in historical texts of XI-XII centuries they are mentioned as separate entities from Rus'. They can be considered parts of extended Rus', although their culture was distinct from main Rus'.
In 1493, Muscovite duke Ivan III appointed himself to be the Great Ruler of All Rus'. No other kings acknowledged that. From that point on Muscovy started to make false claims on Rus' ownership.
“Russia” is an offshoot of Ukraine and not the other way round, despite what Soviet and Russian (Muscovite) historians have been trying to say for years. A Slavicised Finnic, then later, Mongolized offshoot. Kyiv was a developed cultured capital when Moscow was just another swamp village.
Germany used to call itself the Holy Roman Empire, that didn’t mean they became the Romans, and all of a sudden had a right to claim whole of Italy and its history, but yet, that’s exactly what Russia (Muscovy) did in regards to Rus'-Ukraine, which is a horrible injustice!
Well said
Identity theft. They should sue the crap out of them.
😌😌😌
Sounds like a modern Rome with its city dictating the territories around it.
here we go again, no, Germany did not call itself the Holy Roman Empire, Germany did not exist till 1870, the Holy Roman Empire was ruled by the Habsburgs for 600 years, starting in 1273, if you continue to falsify history, nobody will believe your side of the Ukrainian history
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habsburg_monarchy
Yes. Putin supporters (the "Z" cults), like Trump supporters (the "Q" cults), may not want to acknowledge ACTUAL history --- saying it's something else --- but when the GREAT KHAN's armies marched into eastern Europe, the land they clearly conquered was from Kyiv to Moscow, known as Kyivan Rus, NOT "Russia" or even "Moscow," both of which are modern constructs.
Nobody --- not people in Ukraine or people in Russia today and no other educated historian or ordinary person --- said Mongols never existed and they never conquered eastern-northern Europe all the way to & through the Polish-Hungarian-Slovac-Romanian regions.
Different people & different historians gave different accounts as to why the Mongols didn't push further and into Western Europe, when they had already conquered all of eastern Europe; some said because of the severe weather and terrains; others said because some of the leaders had to return to the east, for the election of another Great Khan, due to the passing of Genghis son, so on and so forth...
But what is NOT disputed, again, is that when the Mongols conquered what we would today describe as "Eastern Europe" ---- from present day Black Sea, Romania, Slovakia, Hungray, Ukraine, Poland, Moscow ---- words like "Moscow" or "Russians" did NOT exist. It's KYIV (and other Slavic tribes in or around Kyiv) that did.
One other thing, as you noted, that NEITHER Ukrainians NOR Russians dispute.... is that BOTH modern Ukrainians and Russians claim to have started from tribes in or around today KYIV; so, as you said, it is NOT Moscow that gave birth to Kyiv; it's the opposite.
Asserting Moscow gave birth to Kyiv and that's why Moscow has the historical right to "reclaim it" (like Putin's Alternate Reality supporters do), for example, would be like asserting Washington gave birth to London and it has the right to "reclaim," for "historical reasons" (like Trump's Alternate Reality supporters sometimes would do).
That is just utter rubbish. Russians know it and so does everybody else.
But Putin and his crazy "Z" supporters, again, are cult people like Trump and his "Q" supporters: they PRETEND they're from Flat Land, an Alternate Reality where history as we know it on Earth is alien to them; they make random assertions as they wanted.
BTW, the "Holy Roman Empire," a bastardizing of the phrase ROMAN EMPIRE ----- as you noted, which allowed Hitler & Others to arbitrarily assert that the GERMANIC PEOPLE had a glorious & advanced CIVILIZATION stretching back "2,000 years".... and that means, Hitler said, if the Germans of his time, 1920s - 40s, wanted to RETURN to that glorious root of theirs, they needed to do it though Hitler's mighty and victorious NAZI regime... and THAT was by rejecting the subhumans like the Jews, the "Asiatics" (that's what they called the Russians & others a bit to the east of them, DUE to the influence/conquest by Asians/the Mongols) & others --- it NEVER WAS an empire... so, forget about it being a "holy" one...
It's really THE DARK AGES of Europe, literally....
And, BTW, that "Holy Roman Empire" started around the time crazy CHRISTIANS were strong enough to convert the first (& weak) Roman Emperor, Constantine, in early 300AD.
Historians like to say it's in the middle of the 400AD (476AD, etc) that secular Rome fell; but that's just fancy record keeping.
Again, by the time CRAZY, illiterate Christians killed the great and last Greek mathematician, Hypatia, in Alexendria (today Egypt), in early 400AD.... it was ALREADY TOO LATE... most books and other real secular Roman and Greek knowledge and institutions were burnt or destroyed by Christians.
The fall of ROME really started in Constantine's time, early 300AD.
From the time Christians murdered the last great Greek scientist, early 400AD, to the beginning of the Italian Renaissance, 1400s..... it generally was, again, known & described as the DARK AGES of Europe, literally.
Christians, again, burnt any and all scientific books ... as well as books on commerce and trade, politics & governance.... books and ideas and human advances made and shared, from the time of CLEISTHENES and PERICLES down to Alexander, who built the great city of ALEXANDRIA, in northern Egypt, ~300BC... where, again, the last great NON-CHRISTIAN Greek astronomer and mathematician Hypatia lived ... where she was murdered, in broad day light, by Christians, for teaching unGodly ideas, etc.
Any and all things that Greeks and Romans had gotten from Northern Africa, the Middle East, Persia, India, China.... anything that dealt with mathematics, medicine, science, astronomy.... all were destroyed, burnt, or banned by the time of Hypatia's murder.
THAT is the real history of Europe....
The Romans and Greeks were the ONLY TWO TRIBES who became CIVILIZATIONS..... not the illiterate Germanic tribes (like the Vandals, Goths, etc.) or the Vikings or the Franks or the Norse or the Slavs (from which the term SLAVIC came, from which the term SLAVE came).... or any others, like the English and Spaniards and Portuguese who would "made it big" some hundreds of years later...
Very good series. I'm happy to see you use and list sources and offer your own perspective. Too many of the other channels out there just speculate through a western lens, without any deep understanding of the region.
Not what "would" , but rather , what WILL.
Anglo-saxons vs the Russians, none of them will win...But the big looser is Europe hosting the anglo-saxon proxy war....
🧢
nah
Nice one!
I mean, this is basically inevitable.
its inevitable with everything
Thank you so much for the video, you are an inspiration for me to start a geopolitics channel in spanish
Man, you are likely never been in Sineria and Far East to think it could be different states). These areas are sooooo huge, so desolate that it's typical to have a closest neighboring town in 250 km)). All Siberia plus Far East have he same population as Moscow agglomeration. Everybody who thinks on its future moves to central and Souther Russia. The longer typical Siberian town exists, the less elder people it has. Who actually built those states? Sullen silent people immersed in their everyday problems? Whose children moved to Moscow 10 years ago. Man, you have no idea what you're talking about). But I was born in Siberia, molded by it. The majority of my classmates didn't leave region the size of 2 France simply because it's too long and too expensive to travel somewhere. It's a dead territory. The best way for everyone beyound 30 is to leave it and forget forever. Ans what's more important 90% are Russians). All the national Siberian minorities are too little in number and to poor to do something as establishing new states. No man, Siberia will remain a resource colony for Moscow, which will continue to sell its colonies to China.
great video!
The empire will fall.
...american one
@@andreyg.2388Russia first lol! 😂😅
@@paolosantiago3163 Stupid!? )))
The bigger issue about the speculation about "militias" is whether or not there's going to really be anyone left. Most of the remaining "soldiers" are brand new with little to no training. This is pretty unlikely as there are only a handful soldiers with any real training. More likely, the US, and by extent the EU, would be to put a western friendly leader in power in Russia. This is a disaster for China, but they don't have the ability to come to the negotiation table as a result of the war's conclusion and who they backed. The bottom line is Putin is likely out. China doesn't have enough leverage in a post-Ukraine War as they backed the wrong horse here.
Love your show. Very informative
Wow, this is very well done
The balkanization of Ruzzia, would make the Middle East itself look like a Picnic.
True
Turning towards the West would be by far the best move for new emerging states. The West has huge economic, diplomatic and military ressources and they are willing to welcome them as independent nations. They additionally wouldnt seek to exploit their ressources and submit them like for example China.
You need to be more careful with this. If this happens, then as a Russian, I will try to inflict maximum harm on you for the ruined state.
@@Fillipok That's cute. All a Russian can do is harm civilians, innocents, women and children. Defeat is coming and every day it becomes more obvious.
Russian Army started to burn their own ammunition in the backline in order to try to stop the war on its tracks. It is already a ruined state, ready to fall like dominoes.
😂😂
This would be a quantum explosion of the Yugoslavian War, and I was alive during those days, in Western Europe, but I couldn't understand it.
This is a brilliant explanation of the geopolitics of a breakup of the Russian Federation, which IMHO is likely in the near future.
Thanks!
great work man, I learned a lot about Russian demographics...💯🤘🏻
I couldn't find the free access to Janusz Bugajski's book in the description; if want to have a look, you google the title of the book and "pdf" however and can find it freely available provided by the Jamestown Foundation.
Were Russia to collapse, then the transatlantic strategic partnership will face an uncertain future without a unifying threat.
Unlike eastern Europe, Western Europe just doesn't view China as a threat, so it wouldn't be disincentivized from competing with the US for influence over Greenland-Iceland and South America.
>Western Europe just doesn't view China as a threat
i might be completely wrong but i think recent events might change this trend.
A Russian collapse would make the transatlantic partnership even more necessary, at least until all the nukes and nuclear materials were tracked down and some sort of stability achieved for the new post-Russian states. Given that the West, especially the US, has not shown much success at "nation-building" in recent decades, the Atlantic-Pacific alliance will have to get good at it, and if possible work out cooperative deals with China. Ultimately, everybody benefits if the region currently under Muscovite control is stable and peaceful, and war between the West and China can be avoided. Hopefully, our "leaders" will understand this, and not end the world over ego, greed, and lust for power.
It would be devistating for USA hegemony. European autonomy directly undermines USA global influence.
It'sPierce You are dead wrong.
@@katharinapeters6710 totally.
The sooner it collapses, the better!!!
Great video series. It would be great if you could have two series on the hypothetical collapse of China and the USA.
Fantastic work
As A Kazakh 🇰🇿, I am excited that My Country will soon be more important than ever before if Ruspizdetskiys Rotten Empire were to ever collapse for the third time in their life.
Гнилая🤡
Кстати учи китайский, ваш картонный суверенитет могут разрушить Китай в два мига
This is optimistic and I love it. It's still quite within the realm of possibilities. Peace and prosperity are founded in freedom of choice
What about the military option for de-nuclearization? Since nobody wants nukes to go around willy nilly, and no political solution exists, i'd almost expect spontaneous coordination between china and nato to just walk in amongst the chaos and secure nuclear sites from the east and the west. I'd also expect the nukes to be unusable in the short window of time after breakup, just like they were in ukraine.
NATO would secure the western russian regions while China would secure the middle region along with parts of the southern region. The US would probably secure parts of the eastern region using bases in Japan and South Korea.
yeah Russians wouldn’t take too kindly to a foreign occupation. Most Russians hate the west and would literally fight Taliban or Vietnam style against any so called peacekeeping force. Russia is too big and uninvadvable to control or coordinate an occupation. China would also never leave the territories that they go to secure nuclear weapons. and also Russia wont collapse since 70% of Russians are ethnic Russians.
*Aww heck yeah, let’s go!*
Rooting for the Siberian Republic
bigbad lara me as well.
Outstanding and informative
But who gets control of the 6,000 nukes? Terrifying.
They lied about their military strength, they also lie about their nukes.
@@Nils.Minimalist Yea I bet like 20% of them actually work. But thats enough, because you can still take the fissile material off the ICBM and make dirty bombs with it.
Excellent analysis. I would add one further factor that permeates it all: the undeniable fact that chaos is cash. This is significant in that certain persons and groups are inevitably both shielded from the negative effects of chaos and better positioned to acquire control of the resulting flow of cash. For an example consider who the main benefactors were of Russia's previous transitions from Tsarist form to Soviet form and then to Neotsarist form. Hint: to find the benefactors of that last transformation look for the superyachts.