Selling Picks vs Betting Professionally | Circles Off Presented by Pinnacle Episode #88
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- Опубликовано: 30 июн 2024
- Johnny from betstamp and Rob Pizzola are joined by Steve Fezzik to discuss his start in sports betting, the top-down approach, origination, playing back on numbers, touting, and much more!
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Simon Hunter Episode - • FAKE Professional Spor...
SHOW INDEX...
(00:00) Intro
(03:07) Steve Fezzik
(12:15) Top-Down Method & Origination
(42:10) Where is the Action
(49:04) Selling Picks
(1:10:49) SharpClarke Disagreement
(1:16:00) Speaking in Absolutes
(1:20:13) Simon Hunter Episode
(1:23:20) Advice for the Super Bowl
(1:26:59) Advice to Younger-Self
If you want more from Rob Pizzola, Zack Phillips, and Johnny, check out the rest of their content on www.thehammer.bet
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Loved this one, the 90 minutes flew by. I thought all three came across well (Johnny could have maybe been a smidge less aggressive).
Just now watched this episode and read the comments.
I think what Johnny did is what makes this podcast unique and thought provoking. Rarely do guests get challenged to defend themselves on other podcasts. I simply saw it as him playing devils advocate. To me, if I’m Steve, the answer to those questions is simply selling picks is the ultimate risk free free roll. Steve stated historically winning 53-54%, which isn’t a huge edge, but better than 99% of public.
I think Johnny’s point would be more significant if you are a Billy Walters.
Great job guys!
Well said.
This was a really interesting interview and almost like a crossover interview. It is difficult who to obtain information from as ‘just a guy’ regarding sports betting. There is an incredible amount of arrogance/ignorance in the space (like anything else). You have to be a disciple of someone or completely shit on a person, there’s no middle ground. For example, People love trolling Fezzik who has a million dollar bank roll. I totally appreciate this podcast and Rob’s availability on Twitter etc. It’s difficult sifting through the ‘cool kids’ crowd in gambling Twitter and who actually can teach me something. I really appreciate you guys and your interviews. People also need to understand that their opinion isn’t a fact, it’s just an opinion 😂
Great episode
i had some hesitation when i saw fezzik but this was an excellent interview
In terms of their discussion of touts - All of them are wrong. First off. How would they know how many clients Fezzik has. Maybe he has a million clients than give him $2 million in yearly sales. Thats why someone would sell their picks.
Second. Selling your picks to people who then make the same play wont change the line as much as people think. Maybe a line would go from -190 to -220... big deal. Not worth a discussion for 20 minutes arguing. And there would be someone else betting the other side to bring it down to -190 again.
I love how jhonny explain why the parlay is invented. :)
Excellent podcast, probably the best one yet. I love listening to Steve Fezzik. He always brings a wealth of knowledge and if you actually listen to him, he’s always making great, substantive points. The host arguing with Fezzik about selling picks was ridiculous.
There are certainly differing viewpoints on the pick selling industry.
I disagreed he had great points. Because most touts couldn't make money on their own betting without selling their picks.
In terms of their discussion of touts - All of them are wrong. First off. How would they know how many clients Fezzik has. Maybe he has a million clients than give him $2 million in yearly sales. Thats why someone would sell their picks.
Second. Selling your picks to people who then make the same play wont change the line as much as people think. Maybe a line would go from -190 to -220... big deal. Not worth a discussion for 20 minutes arguing. And there would be someone else betting the other side to bring it down to -190 again.@@randyharris3175
As for the opening Lindros would be for sure a hart trophy candidate in today's style of NHL... One can imagine his career had he reported to the nordiques... Fezzik, good for him that's he is a purple wild cat graduate
By far the best interview these guys have done. They need to bring him back.
i hope you guys dont take this too negatively. i have caught up on all the episodes. even the old audio ones.
this is the best sports betting podcast but you dont work to your strengths enough. Johnny is terrible in these interviews and i find he often detracts from them. this episode is case and point where he derails the conversation to argue about something that doesnt matter and he refuses to let it go. In other interviews he just randomly pops in and changes the subject completely as if he wasnt even listening to the guest. there has never been an interview where i have ended the episode and thought that johnny actually brought something to the table
johnny is very good at breaking down sports betting concepts though. i think he could be utilized more heavily there and i really enjoy the topical episodes that u guys do.
anywys just wanted to give feedback. this is a great pod and i will always listen but it can be improved in a major way
I thought Johnny was actually the best part of this episode. Probably my favourite one yet, great work guys.
Johnny 100% was the best part. The industry has a lot of BS so pressing him with questions was the best thing Johnny couldve done this week.
Johnny... and most people... are not going to fair well when debating Steve. Fezzik is so bright and so quick. "Would you tail Steve?... Anyone answering no is not too bright". Most NFL teams could use him on staff... ahead of his time.
Johnny knows that Steve is a very smart person. He was questioning whether or not people tailing the service picks can win in the long run (due to pick availability and CLV).
Mike McDaniels has a podcast? bet 😭
Very incedible stuff/interview. What about “Prop” bets opposed to Line Value or Totals.? It compartmentalizes the variances that go into a whole Team/Side or Both as well a Totals. Do You think the Market has caught up with this proponent of Betting? Thanks Guys!
Beginning to mid season or when a player is coming from injury or a great player on a cold streak no but otherwise yes. Example you could bet mlb Milwaukee Christian yelich home run prop 7 games into season then the books caught on and took him off.
I like the tough questions!
The Bid E - Eric Lindros. Captain Canuck
I can understand why people sell picks it would cut variance, buy buy picks buy picks unless but I don't why anyone would buy picks unless they were betting more than a couple of thousand per game
In terms of their discussion of touts - All of them are wrong. First off. How would they know how many clients Fezzik has. Maybe he has a million clients than give him $2 million in yearly sales. Thats why someone would sell their picks.
Second. Selling your picks to people who then make the same play wont change the line as much as people think. Maybe a line would go from -190 to -220... big deal. Not worth a discussion for 20 minutes arguing. And there would be someone else betting the other side to bring it down to -190 again.
I bet Maybe $50 a game, but even I know that there is Computer Bob who tracks Fezzik..for years now!?
Fezzik s picks make money, but for a$200 better the cost of picks makes a net loss.
Find a more professional guy than Steve. The guy is a TRUE TRUE professional.
Good interview! 👌
Hard to follow Fezzik sometimes. Says he was at an MGM property and they "voided the bet." Did not explain the circumstances precipitating their voiding of the bet.
Did they refuse to take his bet because they recognized him and did not want exposure to a sharp player? Did he present a player's card alerting the ticket writer to not take his bet? Does MGM want NV residents on their app to make bets only through the app?
Refusing or limiting action is noble compared to a book taking your bet, then refusing to pay. Happened to me at the Bally's Las Vegas. Amazingly dishonest group.
Fezzik is a great Handicapper. Won the SUPE 2 years back to back. Until anyone else matches that amazing feat, don't bash or disrespect this man.
Selling picks, courses, mentorships, premium discords, all are scams.
The problem with blackjack is they can Mess with the cards but even if They are legit and you get up on the casinoThey send a Ringer in at the table that takes cards when they shouldn't and stays when they should take a cardTo screw up theRotation
Everything about this comment is incorrect
Rob shoulda stepped in when Johnny started embarrassing himself about pick selling. That was hard to watch.
he is correct
Get dr bob on circles off!
J. Oofs
Johnny is so naive with so many his questions...like seriously....otherwise good podcast
Johnny makes no sense in his arguments against fezzik
he makes tonnes of sense tbh
Huge fan of all Rob’s content but gee Johnny was embarrassing in this interview. Steve answers questions openly and honestly and Johnny keeps going on and on. Johnny a little wet behind the ears, need to understand and listen.
Lol these little punks have such attitude. Very annoying. Fezzik is the goat.
Steve won't say it but Johnny's missing the entire point, he doesn't make $5,000 or 10k a year that's just laughable. I guarantee he makes probably $250,000 a year himself selling play. Not to get into how I know but trust me I know for a fact that is the case and you can start to see why he sells plays. For some reason he don't want to say this for a variety of reasons I assume but that's guarantee money and no risk. Shocked Johnny is this far off and clueless to this argument
exactly
If a book refuses or limits your action, you are not maximizing your potential as a bettor. Selling picks in that case makes sense. Why anyone would purchase picks winning at a meager 53 percent is another story.
Is trying to middle the Super Bowl like Steve +ev?
don’t understand the difference between fezzik and Brad powers and hitman except that you employ the other two
do you see hitman and powers marketing their services? i know i havent. fezz shoves his service down my throat every day
Fezzik
Fezzik doesn’t have a full time job, has a mansion… yeah let’s not believe this guy is a damn good handicapper
well not according to Johnny!!!!!!!! I mean Johnny over here is one of the best handicappers in the world according to him......
Fezzik was curiously reticent on Simon Hunter. Professional courtesy or something else?
These guys come off as jealous
Johnny is best part of the show its not close. He is only one who says it like it is and makes it more fun
Are you related or something? He is the most obnoxious person ever. Probably born into wealth if i had to guess because he talks to people like they are all stupid
Go listen to the Q&A episodes and then tell me if he says it like it is. Any question Ive ever asked about a prop gets glossed over entirely by him. Cant claim to be educating people and then skirt from any question that might hurt ur edge. Plusev Q&A was a breath of fresh air
If you are truly a great sports bettor, all paths will lead to creating your own sportsbook.
Fezzik is 0-0 on bets that weren’t stale numbers. Fact
88 Alan Page - the greatest 88 ever.
great episode. but stop mumbling, other guy! Speak up!
We have a new setup now. Everything should be more audible.
In terms of their discussion of touts - All of them are wrong. First off. How would they know how many clients Fezzik has. Maybe he has a million clients than give him $2 million in yearly sales. Thats why someone would sell their picks.
Second. Selling your picks to people who then make the same play wont change the line as much as people think. Maybe a line would go from -190 to -220... big deal. Not worth a discussion for 20 minutes arguing. And there would be someone else betting the other side to bring it down to -190 again.
Fezzik is sharper than Hitman and Pizzola
as somebody who has followed all three for years this is the funniest thing i have read in a long time
@@gobsmacked123 it’s close man but Fezzik has more pure mathematical capabilities than both of them. Phd level
88 Lynn Swann, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
NO ONE WINS ANY MONEY…ask Johnny.
9ers blowing the door off of chiefs.
Stan Sitwell's new wig is convincing
HOLY FN EGO (FEZZIK) !!!! Loser
You don’t know ball
What have You done for Me lately is engrained in the Public perception especially nowadays. Almost desensitization mind grooming. It happens in all aspects. Sportscards. Ex. If Purdy comes in and has a big game and wins 2 in row as a Backup QB all of the sudden His Cards go up 300% but say Jayson Tatum goes nuke for 1 month straight and cant be stopped His value/Need to have “Chase” aspect is on the front burner but lets say after that month he levels off and is just average than People seem to forget and move on. Its like when Purdy and Niners had that 2-3 game losing streak this year People were like oh no He’s a “Bust” or Purdys a “Fraud” Cards Tank and Perception gets smeared. Idk it will NEVER change unless You are informed, have a real sense of the overall interest at the particular subject!