Revealed: The Small Cap Stock I'm ALL-IN On
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- Опубликовано: 7 апр 2024
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thoughts on the glassdoor reviews?
They aren’t great. The company is scaling and addressing the OCS burnout. Wish it was better
What do you think of XVIVO Perfusion from Sweden, who is progressing well in this space?
Thank you.
Love the content, keep it up Brian. However, a few things you may have potentially overlooked on this analysis.
The years until full year 2028 results is 4.75 instead of 4.1 (unless this was calculated a whilst back but on YE 2027 forecasts?). The current market cap with net debt is $2.9bill (not much impact). But the larger point, their recently 3 year avg dilution is 9.5% annually, and TTM was 10%. If we assumed only say 5% avg dilution over the next 5 years, on the basis they are hitting profitability, the share price return (instead of the market cap growth) is instead only circa 7%. You may obviously choose to use a lower avg dilution amount, but this impacts the return forecast
That's great color. I don't expect anywhere near the same level of dilution, but you're right to take that into account. FWIW, I fully expect them to hit 10,000 before the end of 2028, so it doesn't change the outcome *in this case*, but that is something to fix for future calculations. Thank you!
My bets on small caps are bill, pagaya technologies (alternative to upstart) and nervgen pharma (potential cure for spine cord injury)
Here's a dumb q: how do they make money? on each transplant? who pays?
I agree that Transmedics is a great growth stock/company. I got in more than a year ago and then took profits before it was clear how the airline acquisition would affect profits. As soon as there was information on this I got in again and it is almost a 2 X for me since then. On the evaluation I think that taking Southwest as a business model results in underestimating their margins, a better way might be to check margins before and after the airline acquisition.
What percentage of transplants require long distance transport?
The point of the airline purchase was to be able to increase the radius of potential matches for OCS use. This, plus the significant increase in tissue survival time greatly increases the transplant radius for matches. The whole goal of Transmedics OCS is to increase transplant availability and efficacy. They are creating synergy with OCS plus air transportation. I have purchased and added since Feb 2020 DCA of $20. It may be pricey above $75 or so.
Allowing long distance expands the total number of transplants which can be made, so the % will likely increase versus the overall transplant volume over time. However, most of the current volume don't need very long distance jets (hence why they can be transplanted currently), so in my opinion TransMedic long range jets won't be cost effective options for the majority of transplants
Look at the waitlist, it’s essentially all of them. Some can be on a waitlist for 5-7+ years depending on the organ if they get one at all
TMDX seems like a great opportunity to invest in a company that fits well into a future you want to see!
I’m in
This makes me nervous, so much can go right..
My first question - how far along are they at in being able grow heart, lungs etc from stem cells?
good question but here is a follow up.. Will TMDX be used to transport those grown organs from lab to hospital?
@@leweezo33 wouldn't they possibly grow on site of the hospital? I don't know if they can grow or if possible..
It is something that could be a future reality
@@Turtytreeandaturd I think that (while I hope for the possibility of such innovations) this is WAY into the future
@@stoffelbrian Thanks
@@Turtytreeandaturd I would think not just because you would have to spend huge on having a lab that grew and stored organs. I would think that having a few organ sites in stratgic parts of the country that could get organs to several hospitals quickly would be much better and easier.. I would be far more worried about them coming up with 3D printed robotic organs. But that is FAR away
Does this company's stock have 10x potential?
I hate TAM analysis but love the company. Waiting for a better entry.
A quick pushback on your southwest comparison. Wouldn’t it be best to compare to a private jet company. Many cite HIGH margins due to the fact their demand and cost are high. Same with organ transplant, the demand is constant/high. You don’t have EXTREME overhead like a public airline like Southwest which needs to cater to customers. The customers in this case can’t talk lol they just beat i the machine. So Private Jet companies have VERY high margins I believe.
I agree. The real benefits of the airline acquisition are that they removed the bottle neck of available charter flights which results in an increased number of organs that can be used and that they save the money that would usually be the profit of thew charter flight company. A good way of looking at how the airline acquistion affected the profitability is to compare margins before and after the acquisition. They went down a bit but not as much as I would have thought. I don't remember the exact numbers but if I'm not mistaken gross margin decreased from around 70 to around 60%.
well 2028 is quite a long way from here but surely something to watch
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Great company, it will make organ harvesting a lot easier
Honestly looks like a good short. Lots of hypotheticals.
You have a better chance at better multiples investing in CHWY, WBD, or TOST with far less risk
Do hope you didn't!
Buying at 40 a share
Well, this smells nothing like Theranos does it?
No, it doesn’t. FDA approved. I’ve talked with doctors who use this. It isn’t a pre revenue company
I would suggest researching the Transmedics CEO. This nothing like Theranos.