Why Starting CT side is a Mistake
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- Опубликовано: 10 сен 2024
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Is it better to start on the CT side or the T side? We go through all the data to figure out when you should pick one versus the other.
Want more stats just like this? Check out the Public Data Library: leetify.com/bl...
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Hey everyone, this video has been changed after the initial upload. After seeing a couple comments about the possibility of a mistake, we re-checked all of our data and found a bug when we processed the CS:GO data. As a result, we've removed the CS:GO portion of this video near the end. While the CS:GO figures were incorrect, everything for CS2 is still correct and remains untouched. We're very sorry and have taken steps to ensure this doesn't happen again!
If you saw the previous version of the video and are still curious about the CS:GO data, here's an unlisted video of that section: ruclips.net/video/QgCJZAdYz04/видео.html
So let me get this straight.
CS:GO was a significantly CT-sided game, so starting CT-side was better.
Meanwhile CS2 is a T-sided game, so starting T-side is better.
Seems like while everything about CS2 data still stands, this is a significant part of the video. If I were you, I'd reupload the video WITH the CS:GO comparrison.
Is it possible you can reanalyze the data set to exclude "first games of the day"? and only look at games 2 and above?
I've been riding the "T-side first" train for a while for 5 reasons
1) Your W-key needs to be "warmed up" a bit
2) People may be still getting their comms warmed up
3) There's a higher pressure to make early 'in-team' adjustments T-side
4) Despite how bad T side goes, people are either saying or thinking "At least we have CT next"
5) There's a concept called 'Hard-Easy' in a book called "Eat that Frog" where basically you start your day with the most difficult task that you're dreading. Once you do the task, everything else feels like a total relief for the rest of the day, and you feel good because you accomplished something big and dreaded. Same applies for T side IMO.
The team that starts T picked the map… maybe it isn’t necessarily that the team that starts T is at an advantage, but the team that picks the map is at an advantage.
Would be nice to see the stats for faceit because knife rounds are used to decide sides instead of it being tied to whoever picks the map getting T side
I am actually astounded that they didn't control for that. Not only do people pick the maps they are comfortable with, but Premier actually shows them their opponents' recent winrate on that map. A lot of people gravitate towards picking where they have the best advantage possible.
not always .. that's assuming the other team chose CT even on a T sided map.
this distinction in terms of decision making doesn't really matter for the purpose of this video. Picking tside trends towards higher win %, we don't need to know exactly why that's the case to infer from the data. Video thinks it might be to do with rounds (could explain why csgo is more even), but it could be due to something else. Although doesn't the team that pick the one map of two, NOT pick which side they start?
@@Taziod That’s a big reason why this might be. The one that picks the map, usually get to start T-side as they don’t get to pick sides.
It is not mentioned in the video but when the pressure comes in, it is easier to conclude the map as a CT than T.
are we sure the data wasn't 60% for starting 3-0 in csgo? it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense that starting with a 3-0 lead gives exactly 0 indication as to who will win the game
are we sure Map pick is usually T start.
@@chatterbox- no, the one at 6:43
Probably best to just ignore everything said in this video, to be honest. Most comments explain a lot of the errors in this one.
Most likely some intern likes T side and tried real hard to prove his conclusion right.
i think its because the team that gets the final pick of the map doesn't get to pick the team, and since CT is usually picked, the one that picks the map is usually T
im surprised you didnt mention that
This is a huge point.
But how does it matter for premier?
@@runek100
Team A picks Mirage.
Team B picks CT side.
Team A plays mirage on T side. According to statistics in this video, that's 51.3% winrate.
Now did that happen because team A picked mirage, or because they started as T? This video claims it's fully because they started on T side. But what if Team A is just super good in mirage and that's why they picked it?
@@benshulz4179 the second team would most probably pick mirage too tho
@@runek100 No, Team B cannot pick a map. In premier, there's a ban phase. After that, one team picks a map, and the other picks the side.
In premier, you have a huge advantage if you are the team that picks the map.
You can't just ignore that because "maybe the other team also wanted to play mirage". In premier you can see what maps the enemy is good at. Nobody would pick a map they are bad at. (except at low ranks)
This video fails to take Team A's advantage into account.
Thanks for the advice, we lost after CTs got 8 rounds in a row
Skill issue
Did you pick the final map? Thats a big factor to consider
What did you expect? To magically win every game now
That was because of how you played though lol if you’re actually serious 😂
good breakdown mahone 👍👍👍
not really, lot of errors
Another theory/factor:
The team which chooses the starting side doesn't get to choose the exact map. And that is the team that is most likely to start ct, since most players tend to choose ct to start.
So the team that starts t-side often gets the last map choice, giving them a potentiall overall edge on winning the map.
If first three rounds of the game give 73% win rate, I would be curious to see how extreme the odds are after winning the first 3 rounds of each half. Also mind blowing to see the stark difference in win rate after 3 rounds won between CS:GO and CS2. The first three rounds in CS:GO being just statistical noise is wild.
It could be that premiere players tend to get toxic after losing 3 rounds in cs2?
This being uploaded after the liquid faze game is wild
Consider the fact that Ts have an inherent advantage of being able to abuse peaking advantage with a 1 shot weapon. The confidence you can gain by even one great kill/round can carry you through a game into second half.
Peeking. Peeking. You peaked in high school, but flopped English, because it's peeking.
@@acex222 Thanks for the constructive criticism! Glad to see your peak is being the grammar police on a Leetify video.
@@acex222delete your account
My intuition is that you can group up and get your comms and teamwork together on T side. And then clean up on CT.
Add to that the fact that CT economy is harder to manage and you have all the explanations, great video.
It works both ways. If you start as T and lose the half by 8-4. Then you lose the pistol round as CT, the game is pretty much over because you'll have no room to make mistakes, especially regarding the economy.
It's easier to win pistol round with glocks and if you happen to win the pistol round your random team mates are less likely to start raging at the beginning of the game. This is why I intentionally died on the knife round on faceit so we were more likely to have t start. I proved this correct way too many times when I grinded soloq to 10.
Great video, @Leetify! Your thought process was laid out well and the language used was easy to grasp.
My two cents is this, Idk how to prove this with data but here goes:
i like T side first cause with glocks and AKs and smgs + peekers advantage, it feels like if I have a cold start I can still get some good rounds/kills in.
On CT its good if Im warmed up but if Im not then usps+tougher economy snowballs and also gets into ur psyche for the next half and it feels harder to come back from (not always but often enough)
great video btw!!
I think another thing too is the fact that T side you require communicating with your team compared to CT side where you can go the round without talking to your team that much, starting T means more people will actually talk and so they're more likely to talk for the duration of the game compared to starting CT less people usually talk and so if they don't talk at the begin their not gonna start talking once the sides flip usually.
@@josephhutchins8 oooo hadnt thought about that until you wrote it but definitely agree
> I explain to the team in chat in 5 seconds why they need to change their voice to T-side.
Do not. People have explained pretty well in comments why this video is dubious. In short, statistics kind of wack, and premier pick and ban system not accounted for.
I kinda found that if you start t side your random teammates will more likely start to comm more for the rest of the game. Whereas, if you start ct side, your team doesn’t really comm that much and by the time we hit the 2nd half they go completely mute on t side
My logic is CT side is better for Solo queue, less comminication and planning required, by the time you switch to T's, hopefully you have a feel for the team and the communication
Me and my friends generally start on the side we feel less confident in. This won't always be the same site or the meta site on a map becuase on some maps we just prefer the "weaker" side. But that way we can always finish a map on our stronger side after also being more familiar with the enemies and how they play. This has never really let us down so far.
We do make exceptions to this rule tho. When are warmed up very well and feel confident we sometimes choose our strong side first to get a good lead and maybe steamroll the enemy. Sometimes it works sometimes this leads to a fumble in the second half. But we aren't pros so its all about having fun anyway.
Using Leetify's bell curve data for T start on side Nuke, you can actually cross reference this with your own games on Nuke T side to determine if there are suspect players in your game.
Me and my friends used to always prefer nuke on premier no matter what, then we always picked the t side just because glocks are so op and with an appropriate strat you can win pretty much 70% of pistol rounds. Then it snowballs to the second and third round if lucky enough.
What else would you like us to look into? Let us know below!
More vidoes like this pls
W video! I am not sure if this is a thing your data shows but has the peekers advantage increased from CS:GO to CS2?
Such a good video, how do you have so little subs, +1 from me
What is more possible? comeback on CT or TT? I guess it's TT. What maps have best potential for comeback?
Do those statistics also apply to faceit level 8 and above?
As many viewers have pointed out there are some underlying variables (e.g. Is it T side that wins more or the side that picks the map?).
For me I love CT mainly because even at 20K elo most people don't know how to run a default on T side or they are too afraid to take space or they don't know set smokes or whatever. Coordination is in the toilet most of the time and individual skill matters a lot more. It's easier to defend than attack and if we just focus on the gameplan of just shoot them or frag out we can often rack up a ton of rounds then snowball a lead to make 2nd half less of a consideration.
T side soloQ is definately worse, you have to take space alone, and people get overly afraid of molotovs and smokes. But that also means that you can abuse CT side smokes and mollies easier.
I solo q alot on premier. I've not watched the video yet, but tbh I'll always pick CT first because it's the easier side for a team thats full of randoms because you just need to give comms and support when needed. It's also a bit of a morale boost to have a solid CT side going into the T side and will persuade people to do more if they know they have a good chance of winning. If I was 5 stack I'd probably do T side first though.
My buddy and me have a theory. If you start on T and can gather the troops to run down the CTs first round before they can gain chemistry and learn who they can trust/ play with
Economy takes huge role here. T-sided weapons are cheaper and losing a round on the T-side does not punish you as much as on CT side. It's one thing to be able to afford a slightly worse m4 for 1800 (AKA galil) is something else to actually save for one either 2900 or 3000.
The team that starts T side generally performs better because those that push for a T start normally specialize in T weapons. Such as the AK. The AK is the most used weapon in the game regardless of which side someone plays most.
There's something called confidence interval that is crucial to understanding statistical data. A difference of 1.5% with a confidence interval of 2% means that you really can't draw any conclusions. I'm curious as to what the values are here, but I suspect that the very small differences in win rate could easily fall within this interval, making this matter inconclusive.
PLEASE give us some shorts or something on some of the more nuanced stats. How positioning is calculated and Util usage. tyty.
I talked about with a friend of mind and my theory is if you start T side and the team actually enjoys the T side getting a 3 round streak or a total of 7 to 8 rounds will lower the other teams Moral. Since like we know CT is the "better side" to play as you dont have to do the first move. Now losing this many rounds make people go in to a negative state of mind. Thus resulting in poor decision making, toxic behavior and other negative traits for the next half.
Man, that is a really solid video. Super valuable content! Thanks for helping us win more cs2 games 🎉
I'm 23k atm and one of the differences that helped me get better the last few weeks is starting T. Your opponents aren't sharp when they are watching Mirage B aps for 1 min and then get pushed. Meanwhile you've peeked every corner, made a kill on mid and some pre-fires. It helps me stay sharp. Once i'm warmer up i'n ready to play CT and make some aggressive peeks.
I would rather lose CT than win T. I don’t pick CT because “it gives us a better chance to win” or something I pick it to ensure I get all 12 rounds as CT at least. If I start T and win 13-0 I’ll have only played 1 CT round. Much better to start CT and have played 12.
do you have a cool m4 skin?
???what
Leetify finally remembered their RUclips account password
Amazing video! Really shows the power of Data Science and waht we miss by not looking at the numbers.
this video is poorly researched though, the power of incorrect statistics isn't that amazing.
Please bring back the Mahone Zone!!! It was so cool
Danny, this is awesome. Love the analysis here
I would like to know how agent skins affect enemies accuracy in duels, and which ones are the most broken by that metric
Just to think: isn't it easier to start on more difficult side, so it will get easier in second half?
1. Starting T side forces team communication early on. 2. Usually the T side picked the map.
The video was quick to dismiss the fact that ranks might matter. At every rank below 20k, the win percentages for starting T are 51.1% or higher, while at the 20k+ it suddenly drops to 50.6%.
So is it then because of a lack in skill? Are higher ranked players able to convert more CT-rounds? Do more blow-outs happen in lower ranks? Do higher ranked players eco more when they need to while lower ranks feel the pressure and buy when they shouldn't?
I trust this video because I always play as ct, so I brought the stat down
2:22 that spray down looks so smooth
It's a really great video, I think the greatest takeaway is that mental is a huge factor in a game. T side lets you tilt the enemy team if you win the first 4 rounds in a row, regardless of rank. I consistently run into the issue where shitters say "gg" after losing the first bunch of rounds, and I've noticed that those players tend to play poorly after doing so. It sucks that the MM experience is flooded with weak mental toxicity, but hey, it's part of the game.
if all of the data comes from cs2 games, we also have to take into consideration that some of the lower ranks are just genuienly worse at executing strats and attacks, therefore being worse on T side. So the team that goes 2nd half T side, most likely, will lose more often
comes from premier, too, and everyone knows CT side is better, so only the map picker plays T side. But since they picked the map, they have an advantage on it.
Always pick the weakest side FIRST. Cause when you enter last half, YOU set the pace of the game and because youre the strongest side, youre gonna win.
In my statistically irrelevant experience, starting T side always is an advantage IF you have randoms on your team. T side can dictate what happens a lot more, so you can learn and adapt to your current teams style.
I'd like to see data for only 5 stacks that have played the map together 5 times or more.
Picking the map must also make a difference.
I thought you have hundreds of thousands subs. That's crazy. Video is really impressive and informative.
+sub
i pick whatever my heart desires
most pro teams pick T side. I personally start T, to dictate the pace of the early game. If you get a commanding lead. then, that puts a large amount of pressure on the CTs next half. If you fail to get points on the board. Then you only have yourself to blame.
i've always picked t-side when im playing faceit or premier but majority of the time its a toss up since majority of the people i play with want ct side for certain maps or t side for others
i pick whatever side im better on that specific map so that i have the advantage of beating down my opponent early
babe wake up new mahone video just dropped
Nice analysis
I start T side cuz i dont wanna give out spots to hide as a CT to the enemy
Mahone always delivers, great stuff honestly! :)
Yooo cs tactics
How r u
always delivers... a badly reseached video? Doesn't account for team that picked side in premier, doesnt account for OT so each game in dataset is best of 12, etc.
Doesn't it really depend on the team formation, if you're playing against a 5 stack for example on Inferno playing T side is a nightmare as a solo queue mix. Whereas CT side on Inferno with a soloqueue mix is a death sentence due to rotates and usually losing banana a lot of the time.
i think its all just placebo cuz we just try to blame our incompetence on something, right? think about it and let me know if i´m wrong
People aren't warmed up when they first start a game so the CT's are more likely to miss important shots and give T's an opening.
Why cannot we see matches/friends of unregistered people anymore?
I think it's mainly netcode with peekers advantage etc
i wonder if these data just change when ppl know about them and now starting t side too often :D
Well, the beauty of all of this is that all that data collected means nothing in your next game.
There is so much more going on in every match than those numbers. You wanna know the truth?
The truth is that on CT side you have to buy a defuse kit and on T, you don't. There, solved it.
They should buff the usp-s or p2000!
I dont know if its placebo or what, but in cs2 I feel glocks and galils are much stronger than in cs go, also the fact that whenever you give an ak to a great aimer he builds momentum from the start, basically the whole attacking team builds an aggressive mindset while the other team is on the defense more passive and not so ready, as soon as the side changes the team which was attacking is now defending with a higher situational awareness and readyness to react or play defense as the attacker the "d0nk or NiKo CT entry fragger style", also the fact that famas and m4a1s are trash compared to galil and AK. Ive being playing cs for over 23 years and thats my take.
galil has always been good
@@benshulz4179 No I didnt say galil is trash, I said it feels better in cs2. I said the ct sided rifles are trash.
Interesting video man, nice work
wtf leetify youtube channel?? posting BANGERS?
That's because the people who started on t side picked the map. That's why they win
I prefer to be ct last. Doesn’t matter the map. Even office. Ct sided office is super simple.
What about office?
It's all about aggression, you tap them hard in the beginning they might crumble, lose focus and thus lose the game
idk why but every time when we did bad as t and then had to be ct i was like thats winnable and mostly it was but if opposite if we fail as ct first we mostly lose the game i have no fkin idea why
Is hackers and banned players a part of that data group?
I'd rather start CT because I know I can do a semi comeback as terror if CT goes bad
mahone 🥰
mahone_tv ftw
great video
You will play most rounds on your picked side, so you'd want to pick the side with the highest winrate. But suspiciously, that's incorrect, by almost exactly 1% for every commonly played map. That's suspicious. Might have to do with:
- You specifically focused on "balanced" games, which is weird, you won't only get balanced games.
- Focusing only on "completed" matches means that surrenders aren't counted. Which is fine, because surrenders only happen in 4v5s...
- But it sounds like you have counted games without constant 5v5. CT side is worse side in 4v5, so that creates bias towards T side.
- You ignored OT. OT can be understood as a draw. Ignoring draws makes weird things happen at matchpoints: When one team reaches 12 points, the game must either be OT or a win for them. But because you ignored OT, the team that gets to 12 first is always a winner. - And you still counted every round after a team gets 12, even though that team cannot lose anymore.
fascinating and insightful video
The only reason I pick ct on maps like inferno or ancient is because the chances are random teammates will get unreasonably angry about starting on t side thinking it's worse.
I played 10 games to give a try
In 7 of them i played t side all losses
In 3 i played ct side all wins
Nice data, but in reality, on the ground the opposite is true
Better start ct side
What about the stats on the team that picks between the last 2 maps on the ban phase?
Anyway great content keep it up Ill watch every video
not accounted for, like a lot of other things.
@@benshulz4179 Sure but everyone has to be comfortable on 4 maps, plus if you aren't a stack then the map you end up on will be largely random anyway as people go oh no red triangle go brrr. Could be tho
@@Halfrando Not accounting for something as simple as this makes all the statistics in the video unreliable.
i always flop as a team and an individual starting t side, my winrate is impeccable starting ct tho
CT hold angles , T rushes , CS2 have huge peeker advantage so .. CT have no chance holding angles 80% of the time
imo
premier players are basically lvl 4 to 8 faceit players btw
my theory is when i get to pick sides i go with T because 4 randoms in premier is better as T than CT
In the future I'll pick T-side, so that they won't be winning more often any more!
No wonder FaZe came back from 11-1 against Liquid yesterday Kappa
It must be due to economy. Without util Ct side feels unwinable. T side without utility feels fine
In doubt Rush B
Yeah, I've been telling people this for ages, sadly I can't control my premier teammates.
don't let bandaid ripping get too popular or I won't get given T side more often
is this mahone? goat
Best option is to start cheater-side, or you'll definitely lose.
i added the bot on steam! good
The economy punishes CT side so much so it's better to start T side
There's huge holes in this analysis.
I love data
In this game advantages pick very big, so T said real imbalance
Wanting to scream this video to my teammates, im telling you when you start T you are able to WARM UP for CT
but the video kind of sucks? do not.