Ohio State 41 - 17 The biggest difference in my mind between this and the first game is how Jim Knowles is handling the defense. Thanks to Nick Saban commenting about Ohio State's antiquated defense, Knowles has played far less base four man and significantly more calls of stunts and blitzes that have been effective in using the talented players he has. Honestly I see Oregon scoring about half of what they did before.
I think the B1G is 4-1 vs the SEC in the postseason. It’s getting really old losing to the wolverines, but I think they greatly improved throughout the season and now that loss doesn’t seem quite as unfathomable as it did a month ago.
One thing that is interesting to me is Oregons defensive line performance in Autzen vs. at away games. They have 28.5 sacks at home vs 12 sacks away. I believe the silent count advantage that they get in Autzen is significant.
Giving OSU credit for multiple FGs is… bold. Feels like we have a good shot to win it in a first to 30 kinda game, but there’s no world where our kicker wins us the game.
Oh... and with the way parents name their kids now, it is hard for me to trust anyone named Kayden or Jayden. Where do parents cone up with these names? Go, Buckeyes!
@ I’d even take haubeil or neurnberger at this point. It’s ridiculous that we somehow have a kicker that consistently misses easy kicks. Almost like coaching special teams by committee isn’t working or something…
"There's a very good chance Alabama blows Michigan out." Michigan up 19-10 with 4:44 left in the game. Is this where we finally admit that we've been wrong about Alabama being good all season (and have an SEC bias) or is there nothing that will make you come to Jesus and see the light.
The refs even helped them on their final drive. Big 10 3-1 against SEC right now, with illinois up, and all match ups minus the ohio state tennessee game had SEC favored. Not to mention michigan had more crucial opt outs in this game. Just hilarious the way the narrative for this season went and how it's unfolding infront of our eyes lol
OSU - 38 Oregon - 28 Oregon defense concerns me. They didn't shut down Ohio State offense in the first game. In their last game, on a neutral field with Penn State, they gave up 500+ yards and 37 pts. Oregon has proven to be able to outcome everyone. But I'm taking the more experienced team and coaching staff. Ryan Day and Lanning are similar, with the only exception Day has done this before. And is a rose bowl champ too. He knows how to prepare for the off-season. I think Lanning is learning.
I understand the defense woes for Oregon, I get it. But I don’t think Ohio state can win a shootout type game against Oregon. Oregon carved their secondary like no one else all year. Ohio state can win a defensive game, but first to 40 is Oregon all day
@@Ourboros1234Ohio State also played soft zone basic keep it in front of you defense against Oregon last time. They’ve since changed how they play defense. Ohio State 100% would be just fine in a shoot out type game. It all depends on what Ohio State team shows up. The angry aggressive team against Tennessee or the scared to lose team. If they’re aggressive it could get ugly for Oregon quick. If they’re conservative it could get ugly for Ohio State quick
@@Ourboros1234Are you serious? It took a bad performance by Ohio State’s secondary, and no pressure on Gabriel, and Lanning having to use trickery to get the edge, and pulling that intentional penalty crap at the end, to only win by 1 point, at Oregon! This will be a different game, and outcome, at a neutral site! Ohio State wins by, at least 14 points! 🌰🏈
When people say wonder why Buckeye fans are the way they are it’s because of the consistency. There is no other team in college football that SHOULD have more Nattys than they do.
Thanks for the video :) This is a tough one to call. It boils done to which version of Ohio State shows up. I am betting that Chip and Day are going to lean into the skill players that they have. For that reason, I think that Ohio State wins in another relatively high scoring game. I have Ohio State at 42, Oregon 35. Have a great New Years and thanks for all of the 2024 content.
Ohio State punted 3 times in the first game and Ohio State A) was on the road, B) had 5 false starts, C) had Howard fall over on a 3rd and 4 leading to one of those punts. Oregon could not stop Ohio State's offense and Ohio State's offense is more cohesive than they were then. Judkins was also playing with a broken wrist/hand. Ohio State is gonna put up 40+ (might even flirt with 60).
Also a very bizarre fumble by judkins. And Burke was impersonating a TSA agent wanding passengers rather than actually tackling. Felt like OSU played a C grade game and Oregon played an A game.
remember all the hate on psu bc we were saying how illinois was a decent win and the nerds saying how illinois would be on the very bottom of the sec... well how did that go when they beat up on the mighty sc team that should have been in the playoffs... not even gonna mention the alabama team lol
It's been a rough year for the SEC fans. I'll never fully understand the conference fans but whatever it's been bad for them this year. I assume the SEC will bounce back in the long run. Too much money in the SEC and Big Ten. Bama will be interesting though. They were among the richest of the cheater programs but now that everyone can spend money? I don't know. Texas, Miami, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ohio State have a lot of wealthy donors.
Lol I thought about this statement during that illionois game...even if illinois would have lost that game to SC, the way they were saying that was hilarious especially in hindsight. & let's not talk about their takes on michigan and alabama 😭
They shit on Penn State all the time especially Josh. They are extremely critical about Penn State but always makes excuses about their beloved SEC teams. Georgia never had the number one strength of schedule because SEC sucks this year.
Josh I guess your take on Ohio State wasn't just a little off. Guess that offensive line is just slightly better than you thought. You couldn't have gotten this take any more wrong than you did. Ohio State is a buzz saw after that Michigan game. The part you didn't consider is the emotion.
Great analysis as always, boys! The injuries to offensive line, more than *anything* led to the uneven performances. First losing Simmons (preseason AA), LT *in the Oregon game* for the year, then his replacement, Zen Michalski in the Nebraska game, then losing their Rimington Award winning Center Seth McLaughlin for the year ahead of the Indiana game. That the offense is functional at ALL is beyond what I expected given the OL. The best G playing LT, rotating Gs, and backup center. OL was the Achilles heal going into the season, how well this patchwork plays will be the deciding factor.
Well... all of the SEC fans said that the Tennessee defense was going to cause Ohio State all kinds of problems. Then, after the Buckeyes destroyed the Tennessee defense, every SEC fan said that Tennessee sucks.
I have seen Day put a game plan together and score 41 vs uga when the dline was better than osu's oline by making the run game just be something to think about but they didn't have Hendersons explosiveness that game. I believe the defense and wr's win this game for osu.
I feel like Oregon is going to pull some more tricks out of their ass in this one. Look for more onside kicks, 12 man, maybe even a trick play or 2. OSU is pretty vanilla with their calls in big games so we will see how it goes. I think if Oregon just lined up regularly against OSU I think this is the Buckeyes game to lose. We will know pretty early how this one will go
@@Shibdefend I know but feel like Lanning is still going to pull something out of the bag of tricks. It's almost like playing Clemson years ago, there will be some smoke and mirrors, or somebody's duck running on the field lol
I was at the Ohio State vs Tennessee game and it was apparent in the first Ohio State possession that Tennessee couldn’t handle Ohio State’s speed. I don’t think there is a college linebacker that can cover Treyveon Henderson when he is used in the passing game. I don’t think there are a lot of safeties can handle his speed.
Really love the channel guys! I am wondering how you square picking against your own model by 16 points diff (+9 buckeyes in model to -7 in your pick) especially after your model having a whole year’s worth of data now and should be more accurate as the weeks are added to the data right?
The model is just a trend predictor, not an absolute. The model also says that it has a very very poor lock on OSU (low consistency score), and we tend to think that has to do with OSU at OL. And given we’ve already seen Oregon beat OSU the model in real life is honestly kind of useless here.
@ interested to hear you guys talk about the outcome after the fact on this and maybe leaning into your brand and trusting the raw numbers a bit more and not being influenced by your human gut feeling biases…which seemed to burn you here…. Was there any analytical case to be made that Oregon was a better overall team on a neutral field than Ohio State? Wasn’t the overwhelming conventional wisdom that the raw data clearly showed OSU is the stronger overall team? Just seems so odd that you just disregarded your model by THAT much and claiming yourself that it is “kind of useless”. Maybe you guys can go back and learn some things from this embarrassing oversight…and do a Ryan Day…and come back and lean into what you guys do best…see what I did there? 😉 love your guy’s content and looking forward to better analysis of the numbers going forward!
Interesting commentary, thanks guys. I hope commenters don't get too wrapped up in the predictions of the model and Josh and Daniel. I think this game will all come down to how the QBs and the Ohio State offensive line plays, and no one can predict those things with closely matched teams. Another interesting item is that Ohio State seemed to rotate a lot of interior offensive linemen vs Tennessee, will that continue? I am curious to see how OSU adjusts their defense compared to the first game. Has Knowles truly learned about pressure and will they rotate key players to keep them fresh? Too many things to predict, let's just hope for another great game.
Hey, Josh, I would like to brag on myself and say I do read the explanation and enjoy the consistency score in the model. But I especially enjoy the content.
I think Ohio State has the higher ceiling, but Oregon more consistently brings their A game. I have respect and admiration for Oregon. But my Buckeyes are going to show up offensively and take the roof off(I hope). Ohio State 45-31
What do you guys think about what Saban said about teams struggling with tackling in bowl games because of the long rest and no live tackling in practice?
IMO my Buckeyes gave away the first against Oregon. Poor pass defense on deep throws, no sacks, 2 lost fumbles and poor clock management at the end of the game. Plus bad penalties. Yet they still had a legitimate chance to win the game at the end. I don't believe these teams are evenly matched. If both teams played their A+ games i would pick OSU 10. Give me 42 - 28 Buckeyes. #GoBucks #MichiganStillSucks
OK....I've watched both your OSU vs TENN and now this vid (OSU vs OREG). Obviously it is after the game. I'd love to have a breakdown of the "breakdown" from the model and your thoughts. I'm looking forward to your breakdown of OSU vs TX.
@buddyshaff1 All good, the games are played on the field, not on paper. If they were played on paper, we beat Georgia twice and OSU beats Oregon twice and Michigan. But, the games arent and they didn't. Looking forward to a big game next week! Lets go! HookEm!!
That's the wrap. I'm an Ohio State fan, but we have no room to complain. We should have beat Michigan if we wanted a higher seed. Better to have a real challenge for Day and Chip to measure their system going forward too.
lol watching this after embarrassing Alabama loss to Michigan. Daniel I used to curse you (gently) for saying Milroe held Alabama’s offense back. You were right. All along. Happy new year guys!
I think the prep time is more of an advantage for a good team when both have the time off. But in this case I think Buckeyes playing is a huge advantage because of how dominant they were vs Tennessee and best game or not, it was the first time all season they aggressively went down the field with passing game. Oregon got the rest but that also comes with rust. Buckeye also revamped whole D mindset after first Oregon game and are gonna actually show up this time around. Bucks win big 42-27
OSU has been playing slow and steady all year round. Deliberately NOT blowing teams out. Trying different schematics. Some games were close and others were lost. As of the Vols game, Day and Chip are finally going full throttle on the Lambo. Buckeyes by 14. “Where was THIS team all season long?!” - hiding in plain sight.
@@onymoubefore the playoffs, they ranked in the 120’s in pace per play in all of FBS. That was intentional to keep people fresh for a potential playoff run. It wasn’t intentional to lose obviously, but playing slow was 100% intentional.
I don't buy that at all. I love the thought, though. The Buckeyes played well against Tennessee, and I think that they will win by 20 against Oregon. I just don't believe that the Buckeyes played badly or lost deliberately. If you are a Buckeye fan, no one calls Ohio State "OSU" anymore.
Great analysis as usual. I do have concerns about Ohio state offensive line. Though they did go up against a very talented Tennessee line. My concerns with Oregon are if you look at any of the games, they faced against elite offenses they have given up nearly 30 points per game. Wow the only game Ohio State has given up over 20 was versus Oregon and that might’ve been Mohr to not haven’t played an elite offense yet that year. Also, the defense just having its worst game of the year. Which probably has something to say about Oregon as well. But, if the defense has shown up against all the teams, they have played since I’m not sure I see Oregon scoring more than 21 to 24 points. And if Oregon’s defense shows up like it has against elite offenses. Do they keep Ohio State under 24? So I am going Ohio State 33 Oregon 24 .
Bama should have cancelled their bowl game with Michigan they’re gonna get punished by the committee for losing big non conference games and miss the playoff
lol just watching this taking about a bad take with bama and Michigan let’s stop with the sec is better stuff I think today we seen it’s far from the truth
I am not completely sure about how "the model" works. But Josh might want to consider "weighting" games based on recency. Georgia's lambasting of Clemson in week 1 has far less relevance to games at the end of the season than games towards the latter half of the season. If all games are weighted equally, It doesn't adequately reflect a team's growth or development during the course of the season. Nor does it reflect injuries, or a team on a hot streak like Ohio State. Weight the last 4-6 games more heavily than the first 6-8.
OSU has no room to complain that anything about our playoff path is unfair. We lost 2 games and earned this seed. Now go earn a title. I see a tight game that either team can win, but if both play "A" games, OSU wins.
Is he really comparing beating Boise State and SMU as equal to what OSU and Michigan have done in the playoffs. Franklin beat SMU at home too. They are not equal.
Oregons defensive line will be the big surprise due the theory that Oregon is strictly an offensive team. Ask yourself, who is stronger. Oregons defensive line or Ohio States offensive line. You are over your skis on the Tennessee game. Look at the big picture. The SEC this year along with ESPN are trying to get what they believe they deserve so with that comes over hype of SEC teams. The reason for this behavior is due to the new system and making sure they get what they want. They wanted to set precedent by getting as many teams as they can in the play off in the first year. So teams like Tennessee get over hyped all year. We also have a tendency to go along with it because they have had really good top tier teams. That doesn’t mean middle tier teams are always as good as they say. The Tennessee game was fools gold. Let it go. Oregon did let Penn State score a lot of points and I don’t care about a flu rumor. I also still think that Oregons defensive line is more imposing than Ohio States offensive line and this will be the difference. I think Oregon will win by a little more than last time. It’s not going to be a blow out but they could win by ten. I do think defense will affect both sides this game more than last time. Oregon wins 28-17. I’m even a little uncomfortable saying Oregon gets 28. It could be more like 24. Ohio State will put pressure on Oregon but Gabriel will handle it better. Howard will throw a pick. I keep getting told I’m wrong but I really feel like I’m nailing it. I’ve been really wrong in the past so who knows. I’m not even close to an expert at all. I just think I see what went on with middle of the road teams in the SEC. Feels like people don’t recognize the politics of what’s happening. Look at ESPNs rankings this year. It’s been ridiculous. Ohio State should run first pass second. That sounds crazy but Oregon has a tougher time with the run. Run and get your big plays from the elite receivers. Run to pass 60-40. Oh by the GoooooDucks!!!!
lots of words here, but you didn't say much. should have said "OSU by 20." sorry your blabbering mess didn't inspire your team buddy. better luck next year.
@ it’s ok. I’m not a baby. They beat us pretty bad. That has to be one of the worst beat downs we move received in a long time. Honestly I can’t remember a worst one. I’ll be rooting for the Bucks. Can’t have the SEC winning another one.
@ it did. I truly believed what I said. That was an absolute shocking game. They overwhelmed them quickly. What i saw in Ohio States defense is what pictured Oregons defense to look like. I saw that against Washington. Crazy part is I noticed certain shows had similar ideas which surprised me and realy gave me confidence and then lol the game started. Go Ducks!!! Go B1G!!! Go Bucks!!!
Ohio State 41 - 17
The biggest difference in my mind between this and the first game is how Jim Knowles is handling the defense. Thanks to Nick Saban commenting about Ohio State's antiquated defense, Knowles has played far less base four man and significantly more calls of stunts and blitzes that have been effective in using the talented players he has. Honestly I see Oregon scoring about half of what they did before.
@@johnbochenek5526 this ended up being an epic prediction
Dude you might actually be right
@@MacaroniCeroni thx... A blind squirrel 🐿️
Great call!
Hey Brother, maybe you can help "The Nerds" with "The Model"...because you were almost dead on! Go Bucks!!!
That Alabama statement held up well lol
😂
SEC, SEC, SEC 😂😂😂
These guys still living in 2018
I think the B1G is 4-1 vs the SEC in the postseason. It’s getting really old losing to the wolverines, but I think they greatly improved throughout the season and now that loss doesn’t seem quite as unfathomable as it did a month ago.
They have to address this. Aged awful 😂
One thing that is interesting to me is Oregons defensive line performance in Autzen vs. at away games. They have 28.5 sacks at home vs 12 sacks away. I believe the silent count advantage that they get in Autzen is significant.
Wow. Good call out!
@ thank you! It’s worth noting that 7 of the 12 were against UCLA and Purdue.
But it doesn't matter if they get Five in this game. Expect it. Michigan exposed that weakness.
Excuse me sir??
@@Picasso-f9jhmm
Giving OSU credit for multiple FGs is… bold. Feels like we have a good shot to win it in a first to 30 kinda game, but there’s no world where our kicker wins us the game.
I trust him to hit 32 yard FG's. I trust him to hit a 32 yard FG to win the game. I just don't trust any FG outside of 35 yards.
Oh... and with the way parents name their kids now, it is hard for me to trust anyone named Kayden or Jayden. Where do parents cone up with these names?
Go, Buckeyes!
@ fielding is better from 40 and out than 30-39. He’s just inconsistent. I don’t trust him anywhere on the field.
@cabe115 A 32 yard FG is nothing but an extra point..... right? Lol. I could never kick a ball. Does Mike Nugent have eligibility left?
@ I’d even take haubeil or neurnberger at this point. It’s ridiculous that we somehow have a kicker that consistently misses easy kicks. Almost like coaching special teams by committee isn’t working or something…
"There's a very good chance Alabama blows Michigan out." Michigan up 19-10 with 4:44 left in the game. Is this where we finally admit that we've been wrong about Alabama being good all season (and have an SEC bias) or is there nothing that will make you come to Jesus and see the light.
The refs even helped them on their final drive. Big 10 3-1 against SEC right now, with illinois up, and all match ups minus the ohio state tennessee game had SEC favored. Not to mention michigan had more crucial opt outs in this game. Just hilarious the way the narrative for this season went and how it's unfolding infront of our eyes lol
OSU - 38
Oregon - 28
Oregon defense concerns me. They didn't shut down Ohio State offense in the first game. In their last game, on a neutral field with Penn State, they gave up 500+ yards and 37 pts. Oregon has proven to be able to outcome everyone. But I'm taking the more experienced team and coaching staff. Ryan Day and Lanning are similar, with the only exception Day has done this before. And is a rose bowl champ too. He knows how to prepare for the off-season. I think Lanning is learning.
I understand the defense woes for Oregon, I get it. But I don’t think Ohio state can win a shootout type game against Oregon. Oregon carved their secondary like no one else all year. Ohio state can win a defensive game, but first to 40 is Oregon all day
@@Ourboros1234Ohio State also played soft zone basic keep it in front of you defense against Oregon last time. They’ve since changed how they play defense. Ohio State 100% would be just fine in a shoot out type game. It all depends on what Ohio State team shows up. The angry aggressive team against Tennessee or the scared to lose team. If they’re aggressive it could get ugly for Oregon quick. If they’re conservative it could get ugly for Ohio State quick
@@Ourboros1234Are you serious? It took a bad performance by Ohio State’s secondary, and no pressure on Gabriel, and Lanning having to use trickery to get the edge, and pulling that intentional penalty crap at the end, to only win by 1 point, at Oregon! This will be a different game, and outcome, at a neutral site! Ohio State wins by, at least 14 points! 🌰🏈
Penn State just exposed Oregon’s defense in the Big 10 Championship Game, scoring 37 points, and rushed for 297 yards! 🌰🏈
@@Ourboros1234Hindsight.
Caleb Downs and that Defense is the difference maker in this one. They’re playing at all cylinders than they were compared to the first time.
I'm really looking forward to this reaction video
The patchwork OL looked pretty good. There were multiple plays that Howard have forever to stand in the pocket. I have faith in them.
josh can I get an update on. your hot take that are always right on osu o line?
so do we get no more videos now since the sec completely shit the bed?
I want a game review video from the two of you on this.
When people say wonder why Buckeye fans are the way they are it’s because of the consistency. There is no other team in college football that SHOULD have more Nattys than they do.
💯
Michigan won. In fact, the Big 10 is 4 and 1 against the SEC, and but for Iowa's collapse against Missouri, they would be 5 and 0.
LOL, no you can't see through stuff like this. Pick against Ohio State the rest of the way at your own peril boys. This train can't be stopped. O H!
Thanks for the video :)
This is a tough one to call. It boils done to which version of Ohio State shows up. I am betting that Chip and Day are going to lean into the skill players that they have. For that reason, I think that Ohio State wins in another relatively high scoring game. I have Ohio State at 42, Oregon 35. Have a great New Years and thanks for all of the 2024 content.
too bad Oregon couldn't keep up with the osu scoring!!
Ohio State punted 3 times in the first game and Ohio State A) was on the road, B) had 5 false starts, C) had Howard fall over on a 3rd and 4 leading to one of those punts. Oregon could not stop Ohio State's offense and Ohio State's offense is more cohesive than they were then. Judkins was also playing with a broken wrist/hand. Ohio State is gonna put up 40+ (might even flirt with 60).
Also a very bizarre fumble by judkins. And Burke was impersonating a TSA agent wanding passengers rather than actually tackling. Felt like OSU played a C grade game and Oregon played an A game.
😂😂 Oregons bout to blow that back out 😂😂
@@cubegamer1210 lmao
@@cubegamer1210 you called it! Blew out their backs!
@@cubegamer1210 No, Oregon got they back blown out🤣🤣🤣🤣
The big 10 is the best conference this year.
I think maybe, just maybe…the entire SEC stinks this year.
Afraid SEC not up to standard Big ten has taken the baton .
😂😂😂😂 Take was HOT GARBAGE
Don’t think anyone, including myself, expected that blow out.
Daniel had Josh's lunch these last two games this week
Its ok Josh, it happens to the best of us. Go Bucks!
remember all the hate on psu bc we were saying how illinois was a decent win and the nerds saying how illinois would be on the very bottom of the sec... well how did that go when they beat up on the mighty sc team that should have been in the playoffs... not even gonna mention the alabama team lol
It's been a rough year for the SEC fans. I'll never fully understand the conference fans but whatever it's been bad for them this year. I assume the SEC will bounce back in the long run. Too much money in the SEC and Big Ten. Bama will be interesting though. They were among the richest of the cheater programs but now that everyone can spend money? I don't know. Texas, Miami, Michigan, USC, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ohio State have a lot of wealthy donors.
Lol I thought about this statement during that illionois game...even if illinois would have lost that game to SC, the way they were saying that was hilarious especially in hindsight. & let's not talk about their takes on michigan and alabama 😭
They shit on Penn State all the time especially Josh. They are extremely critical about Penn State but always makes excuses about their beloved SEC teams. Georgia never had the number one strength of schedule because SEC sucks this year.
Josh I guess your take on Ohio State wasn't just a little off. Guess that offensive line is just slightly better than you thought. You couldn't have gotten this take any more wrong than you did. Ohio State is a buzz saw after that Michigan game. The part you didn't consider is the emotion.
Great analysis as always, boys! The injuries to offensive line, more than *anything* led to the uneven performances. First losing Simmons (preseason AA), LT *in the Oregon game* for the year, then his replacement, Zen Michalski in the Nebraska game, then losing their Rimington Award winning Center Seth McLaughlin for the year ahead of the Indiana game.
That the offense is functional at ALL is beyond what I expected given the OL. The best G playing LT, rotating Gs, and backup center.
OL was the Achilles heal going into the season, how well this patchwork plays will be the deciding factor.
Working pretty well. Oregon Joins Tennessee behind the ole wood shed
Well. That Alabama thing didn’t even work out lol. Quite the contrary.
Well... all of the SEC fans said that the Tennessee defense was going to cause Ohio State all kinds of problems. Then, after the Buckeyes destroyed the Tennessee defense, every SEC fan said that Tennessee sucks.
@ Josh…you should trust your model more!
Bama by multiple scores over Michigan. Womp womp… clowned again by UM backups this time.
I have seen Day put a game plan together and score 41 vs uga when the dline was better than osu's oline by making the run game just be something to think about but they didn't have Hendersons explosiveness that game. I believe the defense and wr's win this game for osu.
that is true, but Stroud is a much better/bigger passing threat than Howard
right on bucko
I can't wait to hear how Josh explains this one. EVERYONE KNEW THAT OHIO STATE WOULD WIN BIG.
What happened in the Alabama/Michigan game anyway?
It should be a close game. Feel like Ohio State is peaking at the right time. Ohio State 31 - Oregon 27.
Does one game constitute peaking? Because one game prior was ugly and far from peaking
I feel like Oregon has been scouting Ohio State for over a month because they thought that would be the title game. 31-24 Ducks.
I feel like Oregon is going to pull some more tricks out of their ass in this one. Look for more onside kicks, 12 man, maybe even a trick play or 2. OSU is pretty vanilla with their calls in big games so we will see how it goes. I think if Oregon just lined up regularly against OSU I think this is the Buckeyes game to lose. We will know pretty early how this one will go
@@dvontayrobinson3308the 12 man rule was changed ye cant ever use that again
@@Shibdefend I know but feel like Lanning is still going to pull something out of the bag of tricks. It's almost like playing Clemson years ago, there will be some smoke and mirrors, or somebody's duck running on the field lol
One thing that wasn't talked about, and we know now, is what happens if OSU plays better than they did against Tennessee.
I'm sorry. If you thought that Oregon would win, you were at 20% chances before the ball was first snapped.
This was a fun watch after the game
I was at the Ohio State vs Tennessee game and it was apparent in the first Ohio State possession that Tennessee couldn’t handle Ohio State’s speed. I don’t think there is a college linebacker that can cover Treyveon Henderson when he is used in the passing game. I don’t think there are a lot of safeties can handle his speed.
#15 Ernest Haussman?
I hope your baby and wife are doing well, my friend. Love the content yall put out but real life comes first! Keep up the good work yall!
O-H!!!
I-O
Nebraska after Oregon and the week before Penn State was the ultimate trap game. Everyone should ignore that game.
Not to mention they changed the whole defensive scheme for that game and the rest of the year.
Yes, Daniel. You're the only one that seems to see that Penn State rushing so well is a big key to the game. THAT'S WHY MY BUCKEYES WILL WIN BY 20.
Nice
i missed this prior to the game. i'm guessing the models didn't have THAT happening! 41-21 and it WASN'T even that close!
Y’all need to apologize for your Illinois slander lol
Really love the channel guys! I am wondering how you square picking against your own model by 16 points diff (+9 buckeyes in model to -7 in your pick) especially after your model having a whole year’s worth of data now and should be more accurate as the weeks are added to the data right?
The model is just a trend predictor, not an absolute. The model also says that it has a very very poor lock on OSU (low consistency score), and we tend to think that has to do with OSU at OL. And given we’ve already seen Oregon beat OSU the model in real life is honestly kind of useless here.
@ interested to hear you guys talk about the outcome after the fact on this and maybe leaning into your brand and trusting the raw numbers a bit more and not being influenced by your human gut feeling biases…which seemed to burn you here…. Was there any analytical case to be made that Oregon was a better overall team on a neutral field than Ohio State? Wasn’t the overwhelming conventional wisdom that the raw data clearly showed OSU is the stronger overall team? Just seems so odd that you just disregarded your model by THAT much and claiming yourself that it is “kind of useless”.
Maybe you guys can go back and learn some things from this embarrassing oversight…and do a Ryan Day…and come back and lean into what you guys do best…see what I did there? 😉 love your guy’s content and looking forward to better analysis of the numbers going forward!
I had just seen that Xichigan beat Bama. I wonder if they will have the same energy after losing to them? That’s back to back losses to Xichigan.
In the same year
Can you do OSU vs NY Giants?
Josh I’m waiting for the apology video ☺️☺️
Gotta be completely honest "The Model" needs much work...much much work
You haven’t seen Ohio State reach its ceiling yet, but you will before the end of the year!
I mean, at least by the end of January!
End of century.
No preview for the fiesta bowl???
Interesting commentary, thanks guys. I hope commenters don't get too wrapped up in the predictions of the model and Josh and Daniel. I think this game will all come down to how the QBs and the Ohio State offensive line plays, and no one can predict those things with closely matched teams. Another interesting item is that Ohio State seemed to rotate a lot of interior offensive linemen vs Tennessee, will that continue? I am curious to see how OSU adjusts their defense compared to the first game. Has Knowles truly learned about pressure and will they rotate key players to keep them fresh? Too many things to predict, let's just hope for another great game.
Your model has it about what I think it’ll be. Vegas is screaming for people to pick Oregon plus the points.
Josh, Josh , Josh... this didn't age well.
Hey, Josh, I would like to brag on myself and say I do read the explanation and enjoy the consistency score in the model. But I especially enjoy the content.
I think Ohio State has the higher ceiling, but Oregon more consistently brings their A game. I have respect and admiration for Oregon.
But my Buckeyes are going to show up offensively and take the roof off(I hope).
Ohio State 45-31
What do you guys think about what Saban said about teams struggling with tackling in bowl games because of the long rest and no live tackling in practice?
Daniel knows so much ball. Josh should take notes
well, I still think the bye team has a disadvantage because of all the time off. So far, 3 bye teams, 3 losses.
I dont disagree with the bye disadvantage, but that stat you posted is a lil skewed due to the faulty auto-bid and seeding in the CFP
Daniel is abuot the only analyst picking Ohio State.
Except Vegas.
cause all the other analysts are dumb....obviously. like pat mcafee. watch, everybody will be picking the bucks on 1/10
Drives me nuts, notifications for your videos always get lost on RUclips for me.
IMO my Buckeyes gave away the first against Oregon. Poor pass defense on deep throws, no sacks, 2 lost fumbles and poor clock management at the end of the game. Plus bad penalties. Yet they still had a legitimate chance to win the game at the end. I don't believe these teams are evenly matched. If both teams played their A+ games i would pick OSU 10. Give me 42 - 28 Buckeyes. #GoBucks #MichiganStillSucks
And watching Penn state of all offenses go to work on Oregon makes you hungry.
refs tried to give the game to them remember that interception that they called a complete pass?
@@ced.2x we did play like ass in the first matchup. Glad to show you the real team
Told y'all! ##GoBucks #MichiganStillSucks
OK....I've watched both your OSU vs TENN and now this vid (OSU vs OREG). Obviously it is after the game. I'd love to have a breakdown of the "breakdown" from the model and your thoughts. I'm looking forward to your breakdown of OSU vs TX.
Looking forward to the Semi's previews
Daniel's picks have been better than Josh's picks. Good. Go, Buckeyes!
Tough take on Alabama v Michigan lol
I am hoping Josh is right. As a Texas fan, I would much rather play Oregon than put Quinn against that OSU defense. Should be a great game either way!
haha, too bad pal! looks like you guys have a big L coming in nine days.
@buddyshaff1 All good, the games are played on the field, not on paper. If they were played on paper, we beat Georgia twice and OSU beats Oregon twice and Michigan. But, the games arent and they didn't.
Looking forward to a big game next week! Lets go! HookEm!!
Oregon played PSU while OSU rested. Its all relative
That's the wrap. I'm an Ohio State fan, but we have no room to complain. We should have beat Michigan if we wanted a higher seed.
Better to have a real challenge for Day and Chip to measure their system going forward too.
@ianbuchanan8921 If they can win it all this season against these teams they will have earned it.
Yeah….a month ago
@@thechicagostaleys Yep, you think it doesnt matter? Time to rest and heal matters. Plus the starters were out early against Tennessee.
lol watching this after embarrassing Alabama loss to Michigan. Daniel I used to curse you (gently) for saying Milroe held Alabama’s offense back. You were right. All along. Happy new year guys!
Another sad bias prediction from Josh
Been waiting for this, let’s go!!
8:25 😂😂😂 SEC! SEC! SEC! More overrated bums
LMAO dead wrong again... congrats!
I think the prep time is more of an advantage for a good team when both have the time off. But in this case I think Buckeyes playing is a huge advantage because of how dominant they were vs Tennessee and best game or not, it was the first time all season they aggressively went down the field with passing game. Oregon got the rest but that also comes with rust. Buckeye also revamped whole D mindset after first Oregon game and are gonna actually show up this time around. Bucks win big 42-27
Great prediction Jango! Even better than you expected! 😂
lol
OSU has been playing slow and steady all year round. Deliberately NOT blowing teams out. Trying different schematics. Some games were close and others were lost. As of the Vols game, Day and Chip are finally going full throttle on the Lambo. Buckeyes by 14. “Where was THIS team all season long?!” - hiding in plain sight.
Lol "Deliberately"
@@onymoubefore the playoffs, they ranked in the 120’s in pace per play in all of FBS. That was intentional to keep people fresh for a potential playoff run. It wasn’t intentional to lose obviously, but playing slow was 100% intentional.
I don't buy that at all. I love the thought, though.
The Buckeyes played well against Tennessee, and I think that they will win by 20 against Oregon. I just don't believe that the Buckeyes played badly or lost deliberately.
If you are a Buckeye fan, no one calls Ohio State "OSU" anymore.
You’re an idiot. Losing to Oregon the first time proves this is completely wrong.
You are incredibly stupid. Losing to Oregon and Michigan proves this take is completely wrong.
The freeze point doesnt exist for osu offense as a whole. It might for parts of it. There was many freeze points for the ducks offense.
Even the model didnt come close to predicting that.
Great analysis as usual. I do have concerns about Ohio state offensive line. Though they did go up against a very talented Tennessee line. My concerns with Oregon are if you look at any of the games, they faced against elite offenses they have given up nearly 30 points per game. Wow the only game Ohio State has given up over 20 was versus Oregon and that might’ve been Mohr to not haven’t played an elite offense yet that year. Also, the defense just having its worst game of the year. Which probably has something to say about Oregon as well. But, if the defense has shown up against all the teams, they have played since I’m not sure I see Oregon scoring more than 21 to 24 points. And if Oregon’s defense shows up like it has against elite offenses. Do they keep Ohio State under 24?
So I am going Ohio State 33 Oregon 24 .
I will give you Nerds one thing. I like your model better than most every other model. Go, Buckeyes!!!!
8:36 damn that bama take didn’t prove out lol
Bama should have cancelled their bowl game with Michigan they’re gonna get punished by the committee for losing big non conference games and miss the playoff
lol just watching this taking about a bad take with bama and Michigan let’s stop with the sec is better stuff I think today we seen it’s far from the truth
SEC!! 😂 Still defending tennessee in this vid and throwing strays at michigan lol. Texas looked good yesterday btw 😅
Backups are in, game was too easy
Bucks by 14 at least 🅾️🅾️🅾️ I had a few bourbons but I think we win
🤣🤣🤣 I was almost right!! OH!!!
IO!!!
The model was correct in thinking Ohio State would win by more than a touchdown.
U think alabama is going to blow michigan out huh lol that didn't age well
I am not completely sure about how "the model" works. But Josh might want to consider "weighting" games based on recency. Georgia's lambasting of Clemson in week 1 has far less relevance to games at the end of the season than games towards the latter half of the season. If all games are weighted equally, It doesn't adequately reflect a team's growth or development during the course of the season. Nor does it reflect injuries, or a team on a hot streak like Ohio State. Weight the last 4-6 games more heavily than the first 6-8.
3 sentences on the ASU and Boise games in the Oregon video is probably a sufficient preview of both games 🤣 coming from a PSU fan lol
Alabama prediction didnt live well.
"Back in a bad place?" Josh... did you see the Ohio State/Tennessee game?
Alabama isn't looking so hot right now.
OSU has no room to complain that anything about our playoff path is unfair. We lost 2 games and earned this seed. Now go earn a title. I see a tight game that either team can win, but if both play "A" games, OSU wins.
Appreciate the content
Is he really comparing beating Boise State and SMU as equal to what OSU and Michigan have done in the playoffs. Franklin beat SMU at home too. They are not equal.
Do you really not think Ohio State gets emotional for the Oregon rematch?
3 losses to Michigan didn’t seem to motivate them enough
Unit vs Unit numbers don’t make sense
Oregons defensive line will be the big surprise due the theory that Oregon is strictly an offensive team. Ask yourself, who is stronger. Oregons defensive line or Ohio States offensive line.
You are over your skis on the Tennessee game. Look at the big picture. The SEC this year along with ESPN are trying to get what they believe they deserve so with that comes over hype of SEC teams. The reason for this behavior is due to the new system and making sure they get what they want. They wanted to set precedent by getting as many teams as they can in the play off in the first year. So teams like Tennessee get over hyped all year. We also have a tendency to go along with it because they have had really good top tier teams. That doesn’t mean middle tier teams are always as good as they say. The Tennessee game was fools gold. Let it go.
Oregon did let Penn State score a lot of points and I don’t care about a flu rumor. I also still think that Oregons defensive line is more imposing than Ohio States offensive line and this will be the difference. I think Oregon will win by a little more than last time. It’s not going to be a blow out but they could win by ten. I do think defense will affect both sides this game more than last time. Oregon wins 28-17. I’m even a little uncomfortable saying Oregon gets 28. It could be more like 24. Ohio State will put pressure on Oregon but Gabriel will handle it better. Howard will throw a pick. I keep getting told I’m wrong but I really feel like I’m nailing it. I’ve been really wrong in the past so who knows. I’m not even close to an expert at all. I just think I see what went on with middle of the road teams in the SEC. Feels like people don’t recognize the politics of what’s happening. Look at ESPNs rankings this year. It’s been ridiculous.
Ohio State should run first pass second. That sounds crazy but Oregon has a tougher time with the run. Run and get your big plays from the elite receivers. Run to pass 60-40.
Oh by the GoooooDucks!!!!
lots of words here, but you didn't say much. should have said "OSU by 20." sorry your blabbering mess didn't inspire your team buddy. better luck next year.
@ it’s ok. I’m not a baby. They beat us pretty bad. That has to be one of the worst beat downs we move received in a long time. Honestly I can’t remember a worst one. I’ll be rooting for the Bucks. Can’t have the SEC winning another one.
@ericroberts7485 fair, can't argue with that. when push comes to shove, seeing the SEC lose is a nice consolation. you're a good sport!
I don’t think your prediction was horrible… but it did go bad ina hurry.
@ it did. I truly believed what I said. That was an absolute shocking game. They overwhelmed them quickly. What i saw in Ohio States defense is what pictured Oregons defense to look like. I saw that against Washington. Crazy part is I noticed certain shows had similar ideas which surprised me and realy gave me confidence and then lol the game started. Go Ducks!!! Go B1G!!! Go Bucks!!!
Alabama should have made the playoffs…..😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Oregon suck balls