The fact that Trump's floor is so goddamn high is what is truly irritating. He could shit himself on live TV and he'll still be polling around 40% nationally.
1 day. Just 1 day until Kamala gets to show these guys that make up Trump's floor that she is the only sane person at the debate. 1 day until my family can really see what Kamala is about.
9 percent said they needed to know more about him? ALL media has been directly or indirectly about him for 8 years and these people are like "hmm i dunno"
I’ve been saying that for a long time. From the outside (I’m English), it just makes no sense. Like, I get it, 35% of people are in a cult. And 10% of people (I imagine the most affluent 10%), Will hold their nose and vote for him, for the tax cuts. But who are these 10% of people who are undecided? Like, what the literal, ever-loving, Satan-shagging fuck?
@@blacxthornE I used to think those “man on the street interviews” the late night shows do were fake. Surely people weren’t that unaware or uninformed. After listening to Sarah Longwell (Republicans Against Trump Strategist) interview undecided voters in focus groups, I’m shocked just how real they are.
I'm worried about this country. HOW COULD THERE BE PEOPLE WHO ARE UNAWARE WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE??? It takes a second to type that into google. Pure laziness.
Unfortunately most people it seems just don't pay much attention to politics until nearly election time, usually when the debates begin, so we'll see. She can't mess up as bad as Biden.
The subsequent ABC poll released this evening has her up by 6 points. The last 13 polls before that NY Times poll today had her leading, so that poll is an outlier...
Yeah that was really strange. This is definitely a garbage poll. Nothing happened between their last poll and this one and she loses like 3-4%? Wtf?? Bizarre
I ran into an old high school friend last week while wearing a Kamala shirt, asked if she was excited to vote. She had no idea who she was. Blew my mind. I guess I should reveal I live in south Louisiana. Most people here do not pay attention to politics or policy. It really sucks.
it is mind blowing that people have never heard of the candidates. i get not knowing what they’re about, but not even knowing who they are? nuts. especially because we have billboards in our pockets showing us images nonstop
Even if your pocket billboard only gets fed by your choosing through the algorithm, do they really not see literally anything about news and politics… in an election year of all times?! Unfathomable to choose to be that ignorant on what completely impacts your life.
The new NY poll had 29% democrats and 31% Republicans and 32% independents. This underrepresented democrats. This is a trash poll for a national sampling. June NY poll The NY poll had 28% democrats and 29% Republicans and 34% independents. April NY poll had 32% democrats and 26% Republicans and 32% independents. See the trend, they are messing with the numbers more and more to keep it a 'close' race.
Definitely; they need it to be close, so normalising someone who has admitted himself on tape to not believe in his "fraudulent election scheme" (Yes, he said that about his own efforts to overturn the election!) that his gullible, simpleton supporters believe, is ethical for more eyes on ink.
@@donkey3187 The question will be whether Harris can grow her percentages in the battlegrounds. She has a serious ground game which will help with voter turnout. Also late breaking unpolled undecided voters will impact it as well. There are new 2024 issues such as reproductive rights, Jan 6, and threats against democracy. Factors we’ve not had to consider in previous elections. Polls are one gauge but they don’t tell the whole story. This has been one of the craziest elections in history. It’s too early to call it today.
@@donkey3187 lmao he’s polling in the low 40s, exactly where he was down the stretch of those two elections. He’s in a lot more trouble this time, as Harris is younger and more likeable than his prior opponents, her VP is immensely popular (as his is unpopular), and the polls are oversampling rural white land lines to a historic degree. Trump needs to be up 8 points to win. The most likely outcome is he loses in an Obama 2008 style landslide.
Elections usually say something about America. I understand what Trumps win in 2016 said about America. I really don't understand what a Trump win this year would say.
It would say that social media and the 24-hour mainstream news have created a society where people no longer agree on what reality is anymore, and when people can't agree on objective reality I have serious concerns for the future of our country.
I know the election is still Trump's race to lose in certain respects, but my thing still is that, i don't know anyone who's ever actually done one of these polls. Who are these people???
Very old republicans. There were articles complaining by pollsters earlier this year that polling was getting very difficult because no one answers their phones anymore. The hit rate was less than 1% (people who took the survey vs. those who didn't). Polls this year are going to pretty shaky.
We have to come to terms with the very real fact that the racism runs deep throughout the Midwest and white Americans in general. That whole department of white volunteer firemen who were fired because of their racist comments was not a one off station. As a white guy living in the middle of a very white semi upper middle class suburb in a Midwestern red state, the racism, even amongst the Millennials and the Gen Zs is rampant. They will deny it all day long everyday, but it's there. It comes out when they think no one is looking. And since voting is anonymous, it comes out in the voting booth.
I just don’t see why this new Siena poll can’t be seen as just capturing another swath of that electoral and what it’s already been feeling. most siena polls have favored Harris, now we get one, what, a week later from the last one SLIGHTLY favoring Trump and well within the margin of error. I admit I don’t understand the methodology behind polling, but this doesn’t strike me as cause for much concern. And if Siena had favored GOP voters, then this still overall looks good for Harris. (I’d never before heard that-Siena’s not a junk poll.)
You're right. However the media knows that Democrats panic very easily. So they'll push these lesser known polls as headline breaking news stories to keep people tuning into the media frenzy.
if how close this race is is making any of you nervous please do everything in your power donate and volunteer to protect this country from this vile orange authoritarian traitor. protect the lives and rights of you and your loved ones, don't you sit on the sidelines being a spectator and a single vote!
@@miamiexplorer6451 My brother died from the virus that the orange traitor "always wanted to play down" (his quote from an interview with Bob Woodward). It tore my family apart, and I miss him every single day. The way he handled the pandemic caused the deaths and long lasting damage to our lives, including the economy. Part of economic policy is how you handle unexpected crises, and he bungled it badly with fatal consequences. I hope you never have to lose your loved ones or economic security due to people wanting to "own" the other side.
Listen boys… I’ve got Sept27 out of the money puts that say trump dumps his stock in his stupid social media company and crashes the stock, and a bad debate performance out of him would be most helpful. It’s all gotta go below $11.50, so we need to make this happen.
If he sells it might straight up crater. The entire premise of the meme stock pricing is his cultists believing he's going to take Truth Social and make it surpass meta and the like. If he has no stake in it this illusion will vanish. Get ready for the pump and dump!!
Don't forget Sept 17/18 Fed bank meeting. Interest rates are tipped to be cut, removing a bit of mortgage stress for a good chunk of the electorate. If Biden makes an announcement about how the Dems Economic policy is working and will improve even more under Harris, I'm sure there will be a few more votes going her way.
@@graphite2786 Maybe, but not on the time horizon I'm taking... which is basically gambling. I'm hoping Debate + Fed + Lockup gets these things printing.
What I find interesting is that this poll has Trump up, but their swing state polls from just a few weeks ago have her up in North Carolina and up big in Arizona
@@goosegaskins It's interesting because democrats usually aren't up in swing states and down in the popular vote. Maybe the polls swing, but a couple weeks is a short period of time.
DONATE TO LOCAL RACES IN PENNSYLVANIA, THEY CAN TURN OUT VOTERS MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN ITSELF. 3 local candidates in PA that can run up the numbers of straight ticket Dem voters: Ashley Ehasz, PA-01 Jim Wertz, State Senate District 49 Janelle Stelson, PA-10 Consider donating to these people, tell your friends and family to look into these races. It’s all going to come down to PA this election.
You probably do, it's just not the kind of thing that anyone would find interesting enough to mention. Even if you don't, that's not an argument that holds enough water to invalidate anything.
My biggest takeaway from that poll is 21% said they'd vote for Harris today, and 21% said they'd vote for Trump today with 58% saying they couldn't say who they'd vote for today. So, there is lots up for grabs there on the number of undecided. Additionally, for demographics, the poll skewed very old with something like 55% of respondents above 45.
I expect the upcoming debate should be able to make people make up their minds. That’s what I’m really waiting for. I hope (and optimistically expect) it will go well
As an independent, I see how both sides LOVE polls when they are in their favor and then try to discredit ones that are not. To take any polls seriously after 2016 is just 🤯
I'm tapping out of politics going forward, seeing the repeat of 2016 vibes all over again. That NYT poll is contradicting all other polls, but notice how much attention it got? Yeah, I'm out. I'll vote, but I've got heart disease and the high blood pressure that comes with it; I literally can't afford to get enraged at the MSM sitting on the Trump side of the scale all over again. Once was enough. Not watching that MSM-designed "debate", i.e., Trump Show, either
Trump should be on 2%. The fact that 40%+ of voting Americans looks at the thing, and think "Fook yeah! I can vote for that!" tells me everything I need to know about the place.
Me: These pollsters never contact me. Who tf are they talking to! Pollster: Hi, who will you be supporting… ? Me: *Report Junk! ----------- 😂 🤦🏽♂️ I don’t trust people I don’t know contacting me!
You couldn’t say this enough, talking to your inner circle is SOOO important. Even talking to republicans family members who are pretty set in their ways, yeah it’ll be like talking to a brick wall, but it’s still doing the work.
What to talk to them about, vote Kamala and let another 15millions illegals in the country and turn this once great country into a third world crime ridden sh..hole ?
How have they changed the questions in the poll. They did the same thing in 92 when Clinton was way ahead of Bush. They changed the poll to give the impression that it was tightening.
I don’t put a lot of stock in polls. That said, it infuriates me that Judge Merchan delayed sentencing AGAIN to after the election. I do believe a lot of voters were waiting to see if he was going to get jail time, and think voters had a right to know that before casting their ballots.
Hearing about the new delay did slightly annoy me too. But I am not mad at Judge Merchan because he kept his courtroom running efficiently and wrapped up the trial before the end of May. By the time T. was onstage in Milwaukee he was a convicted felon. Not all judges would have achieved that.
I think it is, and even if it's not, it is ONE poll. I guess we can't have only good news, somehow. Let's hope it's not a trend. You have to ask, WHAT CHANGED? Nothing changed to make this poll make sense.
@@xtinkerbellax3 it was caused by printing trillions of dollars during the pandemic and giving it to people while they sit at home doing nothing while the supply chained got backed up. The democrats were the ones enforcing all of the pandemic restrictions 2 years after they should have been ended.
Imo NYT/S poll will be going to a B or C tier pollster after this election is over. Most of their recent polls have all been weird as shit on the cross-tabs. I think the new ownership of the Times is screwing with their polling arm.
NYT/Siena Poll shows 31% Democrats 34% Republicans and 29% Independents voting. If you "correct" and use 34% Dems 34% GOP and 26% Indies voting - because Indy voters are less "engaged." This would probably give Harris a narrow edge.
I saw how he answered his own 13 keys. Some of his own answers are questionable. Basically, he answered them in a way to get the results that he wanted. His answers corrupted his own system. Garbage in. Garbage out.
I honestly don't think this is going to be a 50/50 election. This the one time that I accept that this is the most important election in our life time, and I thing everyone else knows this, as well.
Democrats need the race to be as close as possible so they can maximize selling out to right wing neoliberal donors, and minimize obviously popular progressive policies, which they might be able to strategically dangle over our heads in a future election.
At least explain your conspiracy theory in detail next time you post something like this, this is the same level of discourse as the maga election deniers.
Does no one understand what "margin of error" means? If you repeatedly measure two quantities whose difference is smaller than the margin of error of your measurement, it would be bizarre if the larger quantity _always_ measured larger and the smaller always measured smaller. I feel like that should be emphasized up front. If you are looking at ten different polls, they should not all favor the same person, if the difference is 1-2% and the margin of error is 3%.
Should, yes. But that doesn't mean it can't. Social science stats is murky like that. A lot depends on polling methodology. And also voters changing their minds. I don't think stats was designed for this. But it's used this way because there's a lot of money in it.
I feel these pollsters and media need engagement so they keep the information skewed to make it look competitive. Because people who are voting for Trump are locked from day one.
The issues that are important to voters this year play into Trump's hardheaded reputation: inflation, immigration, crime. But having Harris as the candidate over Biden was primarily about limiting losses on the down ballot races. If she wins, it's a bonus.
The fact that Trump's floor is so goddamn high is what is truly irritating. He could shit himself on live TV and he'll still be polling around 40% nationally.
In my experience the average Republican would see it and simply pivot to "Joe Biden sniffs hair" or some other emergency brain shut down phrase.
Their ideological commitment to protecting guns and punishing women is legendary.
1 day. Just 1 day until Kamala gets to show these guys that make up Trump's floor that she is the only sane person at the debate. 1 day until my family can really see what Kamala is about.
@@pacelive3472 I appreciate your confidence. I'm nervous.
@@goosegaskinsi too am also nervous. kamala’s been okay in some moments but that’s about it
9 percent said they needed to know more about him? ALL media has been directly or indirectly about him for 8 years and these people are like "hmm i dunno"
I’ve been saying that for a long time. From the outside (I’m English), it just makes no sense.
Like, I get it, 35% of people are in a cult. And 10% of people (I imagine the most affluent 10%), Will hold their nose and vote for him, for the tax cuts.
But who are these 10% of people who are undecided? Like, what the literal, ever-loving, Satan-shagging fuck?
@@blacxthornE I used to think those “man on the street interviews” the late night shows do were fake. Surely people weren’t that unaware or uninformed. After listening to Sarah Longwell (Republicans Against Trump Strategist) interview undecided voters in focus groups, I’m shocked just how real they are.
9% of people will vote for anything on a survey no matter how unbelievable it is. I've heard it called the "crazy floor" and it hovers around 5-15%
The corporate media need to hold Trump up because he’s great for their ratings
EXACTLY 💯
NY Times is cooked. They have skewed right. Nonetheless lets vote.
theyve been right wing, libs have just been denying it for years until it became too blatant for them to ignore anymore
Trying out to be Drumpfistan’s Party Organ???
The NY poll had 29% democrats and 31% Republicans and 32% independents. This underrepresented democrats. This is a trash poll for a national sampling.
NPR/PBS is just as bad; the press as an arbiter of truth and a bulwark of democracy has left the building.
bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Without a close race the media loses eyeballs. That's it.
I'm worried about this country. HOW COULD THERE BE PEOPLE WHO ARE UNAWARE WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE??? It takes a second to type that into google. Pure laziness.
How do these people function in life…
The business class spends A LOT of money and effort making it feel like our vote doesn't matter, so why should people care who the nominees are?
no they know who they are and Trump is 40000000 times better than any dem
Unfortunately most people it seems just don't pay much attention to politics until nearly election time, usually when the debates begin, so we'll see. She can't mess up as bad as Biden.
A lot of people really don't care about politics or know much about it.
The subsequent ABC poll released this evening has her up by 6 points. The last 13 polls before that NY Times poll today had her leading, so that poll is an outlier...
Yeah that was really strange. This is definitely a garbage poll. Nothing happened between their last poll and this one and she loses like 3-4%? Wtf?? Bizarre
Still, Harris should campaign as if the NYT poll were the most accurate
I ran into an old high school friend last week while wearing a Kamala shirt, asked if she was excited to vote. She had no idea who she was. Blew my mind. I guess I should reveal I live in south Louisiana. Most people here do not pay attention to politics or policy. It really sucks.
it is mind blowing that people have never heard of the candidates. i get not knowing what they’re about, but not even knowing who they are? nuts. especially because we have billboards in our pockets showing us images nonstop
Even if your pocket billboard only gets fed by your choosing through the algorithm, do they really not see literally anything about news and politics… in an election year of all times?! Unfathomable to choose to be that ignorant on what completely impacts your life.
I warned people about that. Biden is a brand. Harris isn't. That could have an impact on election day.
That place is corrupt af from what i hear
Maybe because she’s not out there interviewing. She’s a terrible candidate and is running an awful campaign. It’s Hillary 2016 redux.
M$Ms focus on national level polling is for ad dollars and should be talked about less. The Siena poll is weighting black respondents funky again
I think we're going to see a record number of black males voting Republican/Trump this year. This could make a significant difference in the race.
The new NY poll had 29% democrats and 31% Republicans and 32% independents. This underrepresented democrats. This is a trash poll for a national sampling.
June NY poll The NY poll had 28% democrats and 29% Republicans and 34% independents.
April NY poll had 32% democrats and 26% Republicans and 32% independents.
See the trend, they are messing with the numbers more and more to keep it a 'close' race.
NYT and WAPO have gone overboard to sane wash for Trump this year. But totally agree this is a 50/50 election.
lol..um, no. Trump is polling far higher than he did in 2020 or 2016..thats means he's winning the electoral vote by a lot.
@@donkey3187 Are you Trump's burner account? 😂 He very well may win the election, but it's extremely unlikely he'll win the popular vote.
Definitely; they need it to be close, so normalising someone who has admitted himself on tape to not believe in his "fraudulent election scheme" (Yes, he said that about his own efforts to overturn the election!) that his gullible, simpleton supporters believe, is ethical for more eyes on ink.
@@donkey3187 The question will be whether Harris can grow her percentages in the battlegrounds. She has a serious ground game which will help with voter turnout. Also late breaking unpolled undecided voters will impact it as well. There are new 2024 issues such as reproductive rights, Jan 6, and threats against democracy. Factors we’ve not had to consider in previous elections. Polls are one gauge but they don’t tell the whole story. This has been one of the craziest elections in history. It’s too early to call it today.
@@donkey3187 lmao he’s polling in the low 40s, exactly where he was down the stretch of those two elections. He’s in a lot more trouble this time, as Harris is younger and more likeable than his prior opponents, her VP is immensely popular (as his is unpopular), and the polls are oversampling rural white land lines to a historic degree. Trump needs to be up 8 points to win. The most likely outcome is he loses in an Obama 2008 style landslide.
Elections usually say something about America. I understand what Trumps win in 2016 said about America. I really don't understand what a Trump win this year would say.
It would say that social media and the 24-hour mainstream news have created a society where people no longer agree on what reality is anymore, and when people can't agree on objective reality I have serious concerns for the future of our country.
The establishment is falling apart at the seams and the country wants change? Maybe
It says the consequences of leaded paint and gasoline where worse than we thought
@@tigmiester4248 Couldn't want that much change since he got a spot already and was voted out
@@jorgepuerta6577don't forget asbestos and lead pipes
I know the election is still Trump's race to lose in certain respects, but my thing still is that, i don't know anyone who's ever actually done one of these polls. Who are these people???
People who answer calls from numbers they don't recognize. Make your own assumptions there.
I've been polled before but it was for a state that I didn't live in anymore so I wasn't able to respond
@@spockolaTrump voters are always ready to take a call from Q unlike Democrats that dont answer 😂😂😂😂
Very old republicans. There were articles complaining by pollsters earlier this year that polling was getting very difficult because no one answers their phones anymore. The hit rate was less than 1% (people who took the survey vs. those who didn't). Polls this year are going to pretty shaky.
We have to come to terms with the very real fact that the racism runs deep throughout the Midwest and white Americans in general. That whole department of white volunteer firemen who were fired because of their racist comments was not a one off station. As a white guy living in the middle of a very white semi upper middle class suburb in a Midwestern red state, the racism, even amongst the Millennials and the Gen Zs is rampant. They will deny it all day long everyday, but it's there. It comes out when they think no one is looking. And since voting is anonymous, it comes out in the voting booth.
Its Black voters turning away from KH
@@supplychainanalytics9114 -Okie Dokie
It is a good thing to have polls like this so people don't sit home thinking that she has it in the bag.
New polls today have her winning easily, plus 3 in NC and PA.
Which polls?
I'm interested to hear as well so commentating. Don't try and link anything, yotube will automatically delete it
@@gerardrosario3855 Quinnipiac (NC +3), WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA (NC +3), Morning Consult (PA +3). Found on RealClearPolitics & 538
Quinnipiac (NC +3), WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA (NC +3), Morning Consult (PA +3). Found on RCP & 538
@@patb3356 Thank you!
I'm seeing news organizations keeping poll numbers competitive to narrate a close election to sell papers.
I just don’t see why this new Siena poll can’t be seen as just capturing another swath of that electoral and what it’s already been feeling. most siena polls have favored Harris, now we get one, what, a week later from the last one SLIGHTLY favoring Trump and well within the margin of error. I admit I don’t understand the methodology behind polling, but this doesn’t strike me as cause for much concern. And if Siena had favored GOP voters, then this still overall looks good for Harris. (I’d never before heard that-Siena’s not a junk poll.)
You're right. However the media knows that Democrats panic very easily. So they'll push these lesser known polls as headline breaking news stories to keep people tuning into the media frenzy.
The New York Time sane washing Trump in their latest article.
if how close this race is is making any of you nervous please do everything in your power donate and volunteer to protect this country from this vile orange authoritarian traitor. protect the lives and rights of you and your loved ones, don't you sit on the sidelines being a spectator and a single vote!
I need to see what kamala says about Israel. If she keeps promoting this genocide I don't know what I'll do
I won’t sit on the sidelines, so I’ll be voting for Trump.
@@miamiexplorer6451 y tu no vives en bogota? Que haceis aqui?
@@miamiexplorer6451 My brother died from the virus that the orange traitor "always wanted to play down" (his quote from an interview with Bob Woodward). It tore my family apart, and I miss him every single day. The way he handled the pandemic caused the deaths and long lasting damage to our lives, including the economy. Part of economic policy is how you handle unexpected crises, and he bungled it badly with fatal consequences. I hope you never have to lose your loved ones or economic security due to people wanting to "own" the other side.
Listen boys… I’ve got Sept27 out of the money puts that say trump dumps his stock in his stupid social media company and crashes the stock, and a bad debate performance out of him would be most helpful. It’s all gotta go below $11.50, so we need to make this happen.
If he sells it might straight up crater. The entire premise of the meme stock pricing is his cultists believing he's going to take Truth Social and make it surpass meta and the like. If he has no stake in it this illusion will vanish. Get ready for the pump and dump!!
Don't forget Sept 17/18 Fed bank meeting. Interest rates are tipped to be cut, removing a bit of mortgage stress for a good chunk of the electorate. If Biden makes an announcement about how the Dems Economic policy is working and will improve even more under Harris, I'm sure there will be a few more votes going her way.
You’re so real
@@graphite2786 Maybe, but not on the time horizon I'm taking... which is basically gambling. I'm hoping Debate + Fed + Lockup gets these things printing.
@@graphite2786usually rate cuts signals recession 🤦♂️
I think this poll called me and the questions were heavily right wing. It seemed Unprofessional..
Trumps ceiling is 46 Kamala's Ceiling 53. Look at Texas and Florida
Dream on fool. Trump wins easily. Harris is a HORRIBLE candidate.
What I find interesting is that this poll has Trump up, but their swing state polls from just a few weeks ago have her up in North Carolina and up big in Arizona
Why is that interesting? Don't polls fluctuate all the time?
lol she was up for like 10 minutes lol
If trump wins PA and GA then he wins
@@goosegaskins It's interesting because democrats usually aren't up in swing states and down in the popular vote. Maybe the polls swing, but a couple weeks is a short period of time.
Crosstabs, polling is odd. What truly matters is the actual results
I agree with you
Tbh, I've ignored most polling, even positive polling. I think the polls are going to be like 2016, except for Harris instead of Trump.
The polls in 2016 were correct. Hillary won. Except in America, popular vote doesn’t decide the winner.
Yes. The poll is cooked.
DONATE TO LOCAL RACES IN PENNSYLVANIA, THEY CAN TURN OUT VOTERS MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN ITSELF.
3 local candidates in PA that can run up the numbers of straight ticket Dem voters:
Ashley Ehasz, PA-01
Jim Wertz, State Senate District 49
Janelle Stelson, PA-10
Consider donating to these people, tell your friends and family to look into these races. It’s all going to come down to PA this election.
The New York Crimes
they've been biased for a whileeee. Makes sense when all the CEOs will make more under Trump
I don't know a single person who has ever participated in any national poll.
You probably do, it's just not the kind of thing that anyone would find interesting enough to mention. Even if you don't, that's not an argument that holds enough water to invalidate anything.
@@awagster Just sayin?" Have you participated in a NYT/Sienna poll ever?
Kamala’s goose is cooked.
My biggest takeaway from that poll is 21% said they'd vote for Harris today, and 21% said they'd vote for Trump today with 58% saying they couldn't say who they'd vote for today. So, there is lots up for grabs there on the number of undecided.
Additionally, for demographics, the poll skewed very old with something like 55% of respondents above 45.
Its about getting the non voters to vote.
Dang at 55ish I’m very old? Can I be young old?
@@drsuperhero He said that the poll skewed very old, not that people above 45 are very old. Duh.
@@drsuperhero we are old, sorry.
I expect the upcoming debate should be able to make people make up their minds. That’s what I’m really waiting for. I hope (and optimistically expect) it will go well
As an independent, I see how both sides LOVE polls when they are in their favor and then try to discredit ones that are not. To take any polls seriously after 2016 is just 🤯
The race is tied according to the adjusted averages of polls at fivethirtyeight. This Siena / NYT poll is in line with that finding.
I'm tapping out of politics going forward, seeing the repeat of 2016 vibes all over again. That NYT poll is contradicting all other polls, but notice how much attention it got? Yeah, I'm out. I'll vote, but I've got heart disease and the high blood pressure that comes with it; I literally can't afford to get enraged at the MSM sitting on the Trump side of the scale all over again. Once was enough. Not watching that MSM-designed "debate", i.e., Trump Show, either
I’m all polled out. I’m just ready for this to be all over.
I've utterly never seen cross tabs like that. plain and simple.
As exciting as the polls can be, they are snapshots. dont get excited over them. Vote.
We need everyone on the left to support Harris. Because we care about Gaza and the future for young people. 💙🇺🇸
WE care about Gaza. SHE doesn't.
Harris, at least from what she’s said so far, is committed to not lifting a finger on Gaza.
@@IAmNumber4000but everything that Trump will do will be far worse. As they say, “don’t let perfect be the enemy of good”
@@thatpersonsmusic You're comparing what Biden/Harris have done vs what you fear Trump might do.
@@drapedblack7517 No, what Trump DID do.
Remember Jerusalem?
it’s definitely cooked. Most of these polls are.
Trump should be on 2%. The fact that 40%+ of voting Americans looks at the thing, and think "Fook yeah! I can vote for that!" tells me everything I need to know about the place.
The copium doesn't help anymore.😂😂 The final realiy check will happen tonight at the debate. Trump24
Every poll should post their exact methology next to the results, because some of them still rely on people answering cold phone calls
I live in Michigan and I have to say, it’s concerning the amount of enthusiasm there is for Trump in metro Detroit-it has 2016 vibes.
Me:
These pollsters never contact me. Who tf are they talking to!
Pollster:
Hi, who will you be supporting… ?
Me:
*Report Junk!
-----------
😂 🤦🏽♂️ I don’t trust people I don’t know contacting me!
It's not enough to just vote. Please talk to your family and friends.
You couldn’t say this enough, talking to your inner circle is SOOO important. Even talking to republicans family members who are pretty set in their ways, yeah it’ll be like talking to a brick wall, but it’s still doing the work.
What to talk to them about, vote Kamala and let another 15millions illegals in the country and turn this once great country into a third world crime ridden sh..hole ?
Fluidity? I got some fluid right here for these polls
How have they changed the questions in the poll. They did the same thing in 92 when Clinton was way ahead of Bush. They changed the poll to give the impression that it was tightening.
One would think by now we’d know everything knowable about Thomas Crooks.
its been since 2016 since we saw smug media meltdown....im looking forward to it again.
Pollsters have a vested interest in making this a horse race.
Who are they polling? People who answer a call from an unknown caller? I don’t know anyone like that
I don’t put a lot of stock in polls. That said, it infuriates me that Judge Merchan delayed sentencing AGAIN to after the election. I do believe a lot of voters were waiting to see if he was going to get jail time, and think voters had a right to know that before casting their ballots.
Hearing about the new delay did slightly annoy me too. But I am not mad at Judge Merchan because he kept his courtroom running efficiently and wrapped up the trial before the end of May. By the time T. was onstage in Milwaukee he was a convicted felon. Not all judges would have achieved that.
Modern polls are better at shaping opinions than reflecting them.
I think it is, and even if it's not, it is ONE poll. I guess we can't have only good news, somehow. Let's hope it's not a trend. You have to ask, WHAT CHANGED? Nothing changed to make this poll make sense.
Is 90% and of first comments bots now wtf?
Capitalism! 🎶 _screwing the consumer_ 🎶
Yes, DNC bots are full force on here and reddit. They are copying Republicans in that matter.
I can’t believe Trump is the favorite.
Seriously. People can't be this upset about inflation and immigration 😡
@@chrisyowell3013oh yeah and things will magically get cheaper with Trump in office 😏
@nick8243 especially when you kick out a lot of immigrants whose labor keeps prices lower.
@@chrisyowell3013 They can but they clearly dont understand what causes it or how to fix it if they'd vote for Trump.
@@xtinkerbellax3 it was caused by printing trillions of dollars during the pandemic and giving it to people while they sit at home doing nothing while the supply chained got backed up. The democrats were the ones enforcing all of the pandemic restrictions 2 years after they should have been ended.
Imo NYT/S poll will be going to a B or C tier pollster after this election is over. Most of their recent polls have all been weird as shit on the cross-tabs. I think the new ownership of the Times is screwing with their polling arm.
It was a highly rated poll just like it was a highly rated paper ... not no more.
Has anyone here ever been called for a poll?
The only poll that matters is in Nov.
STOP. LOOKING. AT. POLLS!
HARRIS/WALZ!!! 💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💙💙💙💙
Gee, I wonder who owns the NY Times? 🤔🤔🤔
Majority of my black friends are voting trump but they’re also mostly guys.
That’s not true . As black I am yet to see a Trump black voter in my neighborhood
Where do you live? I'm in Minneapolis and seems like so many are for Trump now. @timcamer4702
Why is it tied tho??? If the 2 candidates are someone/anyone vs the person who pissed in your drink, then the choice is pretty fucking clear! 🤬
Never underestimate Trump's appeal with both dumb people and cynical rich folk. Our country is busted.
Conservatives are fine with piss in their drink if there's MORE piss in the drinks of the people they don't like.
“If black people don’t all go and vote for the black candidate something has radically changed in our society “ . That’s how this guy starts it off
NYT/Siena Poll shows 31% Democrats 34% Republicans and 29% Independents voting. If you "correct" and use 34% Dems 34% GOP and 26% Indies voting - because Indy voters are less "engaged." This would probably give Harris a narrow edge.
Polls come and go. But Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys remain.
I saw how he answered his own 13 keys. Some of his own answers are questionable. Basically, he answered them in a way to get the results that he wanted. His answers corrupted his own system. Garbage in. Garbage out.
Times is all in for tump
Of course. "The Liberal Media" is a conservative canard - and really rich, since they own most if not all of the Mainstream Lamescream.
One could argue that a horserace creates clicks and sells papers.
PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
She is making the same mistake HRC did, Go on Rogans show, go on your show... go on all the Nightly shows...
Sam is looking worried!
Go back to bed bot
@@TheJonnyEnglish who you calling bot?
Wasn't this poll weighted +3 Republican, too?
Hmmm. No smiles on your faces. Why is that?
I honestly don't think this is going to be a 50/50 election. This the one time that I accept that this is the most important election in our life time, and I thing everyone else knows this, as well.
Nah this is America, the land that reelected George Bush Jr.
Democrats need the race to be as close as possible so they can maximize selling out to right wing neoliberal donors, and minimize obviously popular progressive policies, which they might be able to strategically dangle over our heads in a future election.
yes dems can't win
She’s cooked theirs no other way to say it.
What did the poll say?
CRASH COURSE!!!CRASH COURSE!!!
The ones with the best polls are the parties them selves.
Look at how Trump behaves and you will see how well he is doing in the polls.
People forget that half of the citizens who are eligible to vote, counting those who are not yet register but could, just don't care.
Any poll where you (the public) get to see the results is pure marketing.
At least explain your conspiracy theory in detail next time you post something like this, this is the same level of discourse as the maga election deniers.
this is some BLUE MAGA nonsense
F the polls we all will Vote Vote Vote in high numbers Kamala 2024💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
why are there always Terraria explosions whenever Sam speaks
Edit: ok not all the time but at the start
5 polls have Kamala ahead by 4 points and all the sudden before the debate a poll showing Trump winning the popular vote 😅
Trump old stale Kamala up
you have to add 2 percent more towards
Trump who are non vocal voters but They will not say they are voting for Trump.
Polls don’t matter, just vote and vote for Harris.
Kamala Harris has my vote.
Don’t worry about black vote she will definitely get 90+
Not possible. Are you older? Older than 35? Young people, man. They want Trump.
I think the sentencing being pushed back again boosted trump in the polls.
Im just praying the next guy doesn't miss
Does no one understand what "margin of error" means? If you repeatedly measure two quantities whose difference is smaller than the margin of error of your measurement, it would be bizarre if the larger quantity _always_ measured larger and the smaller always measured smaller. I feel like that should be emphasized up front. If you are looking at ten different polls, they should not all favor the same person, if the difference is 1-2% and the margin of error is 3%.
Should, yes.
But that doesn't mean it can't.
Social science stats is murky like that. A lot depends on polling methodology. And also voters changing their minds.
I don't think stats was designed for this. But it's used this way because there's a lot of money in it.
Let’s go Harris!!!
polls always underestimate trump please vote blue, spread the word like we're 10 points down.
To be honest I'm sensing more and more that Harris is going to lose if she doesn't get her shit together with Gaza.
This election will be razor thin. Polls can be interpreted myriad ways. Read less poll results, contact more voters.
I feel these pollsters and media need engagement so they keep the information skewed to make it look competitive. Because people who are voting for Trump are locked from day one.
The issues that are important to voters this year play into Trump's hardheaded reputation: inflation, immigration, crime.
But having Harris as the candidate over Biden was primarily about limiting losses on the down ballot races. If she wins, it's a bonus.
What’s Emma smoking?? I want some… Don’t underestimate the Trump supporters that are un polled.
I’m not gonna get any sleep tonight, am I?
Not looking bueno for our Lefty siblings.