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I Valued Every Stock I Own
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- Опубликовано: 15 авг 2024
- 🎉 5,000 Member Patreon: / josephcarlson
💵 Dividend Portfolio: click.linksyne...
🚀 Growth Portfolio: click.linksyne...
📈 Qualtrim Website: qualtrim.com/
Joseph Carlson After Hours: / @josephcarlsonafterhours
00:00 Introduction
01:55 Qualtrim Scenarios
07:21 S&P Global
09:50 Mastercard
12:10 Costco
16:14 Intuit
17:40 VICI
18:36 Apple
20:34 Texas Roadhouse
22:35 Canadian Pacific
24:40 Chipotle
27:52 Union Pacific
31:00 Moody's
Instagram: / joecarlsonshow
Twitter: / joecarlsonshow
My Favorite Investing Books: amzn.to/3KwyIhG
All the tech I used to make this video: amzn.to/4547DLk
Some of the links are affiliate links.
About Joseph Carlson:
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on RUclips full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances.
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Why u hold ur cash in sgov as opposed to m1 high yield savings?
I could be wrong but I believe m1 savings pays higher interest than sgov and has no expense fee
Hey Joseph, how does this new tool account for dividends/ buyback
Just by the best of the best of the best in every category end of story
Does Qualtrim support listings on TSX?
I cannot use it. Super slow does not load data. I live abroad but does still not work with US vpn.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
“Leila Simoes Pinto’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
I have a three fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe, who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Colleen has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Best investing and most consistent youtube channel
For sure !
Love me some joe. This dude is on the money 90% of the time.
Yh that I agree. 100%
But would nice if Jo talk about other stocks more often than his own stocks.
yes, consistent and insightful!
Hands down
Personally, I think investors will start to seek more market diversification. Can I confidently invest about $40k into the markets this year? I'm still not sure how rates will effect the market just yet, which worries me a lot.
I think investors who are wary of changing market trends should seek out bear market directions from certified strategists/planners. Safer that way
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfOlio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024
Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisOr?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisOr I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
I appreciate you sharing this. When I looked up the woman you named and read through her credentials, it was obvious that she was a complete professional. I just need her to respond to the message I wrote her.
I currently have a $280k stock portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and QQQ overlap too much to make sense holding both?
You might also follow a lots stocks across other industries. I'll advise you to work with a financial advisor who can assist you decide when is the best to buy and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire since you don't have to act on every forecast.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 this year.
that's a double up in two years! seeing a lot of news on the rally, investors will make tons of profit with the right picks. would you mind disclosing info of this person guiding you please? my problem is I do not trust my guts in today's mkt
Sure. She's known as Camille Anne Hector. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should look her up online.
Hey Joseph, liked the video. I do however think that the valuations are quite a bit rich, mainly for one reason. For most companies you are assuming 2-3% FCF yield, which is ~33 to 50 PE. Which from a historical perspective is quite high, to say the least. Most of them are amazing quality businesses, but still at some point, the growth will stagnate, at least for some if not many, what will be the reasoning for the market to give them such a high premium over the rest of the stocks? Thinking of a prime example as Intel, Cisco, Micron. Excluding some restructures in the business currently, last few years they have had multiple times over revenue and profit compared to 2000s, where valuations were sky high, but then reality came in and those valuations cannot be sustained over a longer period of time (except for very few stocks). How likely do you think it is that a few of your main companies go to a FCF yield of 4-6-7% ?
Totally agree! I would rather base my estimates on 4% FCF yield
What about AMZN? Would be interesting to see your IV estimate Joseph.
Looking forward for the Storyfund Portfolio.
Will this approach also work for a new investor with about $250k or more hoping to create a start up portfolio? Or please how would you advice they go about it? It's all reliable advice that I'm searching for.
Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my $1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Heather Ann Christensen is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Heather appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
i’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place, Personally with insights from my advisor Emily Lois Parker I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
impressive! love the strategy
I looked up Emily Lois Parker on the internet out of curiosity; she has a strong résumé
smart, because if you have stakes in different etfs, grade bonds and others...you wouldn't be pressured to sell during the stock markets downturn
This conversation is like watching a group of comic book villains baiting the proverbial hook to catch new investors who are probably in the range of 35-75 years old... Its comically bad. Can Emily Lois Parker help ME get 37% returns within 27 days?! TAKE MY MONEY😂😂😂
I love reading the comments sections on all his videos. Always someone recommending a female advisor with a middle name and then another person replying just checked her out and got a call. 😂😂😂
Valuation is one thing a lot of people miss, especially when it's about high-dividend paying companies, forgetting that high dividends are sometimes for supporting the stock price of under-performing companies. I have a good portion of my portfolio in dividend and growth stocks, and I've realized up to 20% over the last six months. It's yet about a strategic approach, rather than running after 'hot' stocks or high dividends.
Spot on! You just beat me to it.
What are your current picks, and how do you go about selecting them?
So I replicate Lauren Marie Dale through an algorithmic system. Lauren has showcased outstanding expertise, offering insights into intelligent diversification and effective risk management.
Ran a quick check on Lauren M. Dale, she looks checked out. Is she that good? What's the fee structure?
Absolutely. Despite the wild market since 2022, I'm content with the reassuring results. I find it better to invest a bit for peace of mind than worry about market fluctuations and yet get burned.
I'm trying to avoid new buys now in order not to get sucked into a bear trap. On the other hand, I’d love to know best possible areas and ways to invest amid downtrend. I’m worried with the numerous bank failures as of late, am I better off reinvesting my savings in the stock market or do I wait?
@terhagenSettimo I'm looking to give stocks another shot after staying on the sidelines since the pandemic, if you do not mind, could you explain a little bit how you're getting guidance and how can I contact the advisor?
Thanks for sharing. searched for her full name and her website popped up, I set up a call with her
SCAM ALERT
"I own a couple railroads." yeah, I like saying that too.😊
I'm just wondering how you got your intrinsic value for these stocks. I think that they are priced pretty fairly and you think the value ranges well. I am Trying to find intrinsic values for some of my own stocks on my watch list and would like to know your system.
@JosephCarlsonShow What formula did he use to get to the undervalued, fair and overvalued prices for each stock?
You should do this on the after hours as well! Great video
absolutely!
Great insight Joseph, as always. What do you think about Everest Formula to value stocks? Seems a good new way to understand stocks from a value investor perspective.
I use the Everest Formula portal and it's one of the best tools I have ever used
Thank you! Why did you choose MA over V ?
Take a look at ROE and ROA. Mastercard outperforms along those lines.
true, thx, margins better though at V@@GrindThisGame
How do you arrive at intrinsic value? What calculation do you use?
What about SCHD?
Just got on the treadmill. Now watching. Thanks Joseph.
same 😂
Unlikely. Too coincidental.
Constant self improvement! I like that
Incredible stuff. I came across your channel this weekend and plan to watch each video in detail. Your channel is the best resource I have seen so far for anyone wanting to learn how to best invest in individual companies. Outstanding. I hope you continue to keep creating educational videos
How do you calculate the way from FCF Yield to Annual Return. Don't get this part. Could you please help?!
Hi! in Hungary where i live you cant use M1. What portfolio tracker do you recomend instead of?
Once again another great insight into your investment mindset with explaining why 👏👏
When you say “returns” during your evaluation of a stock what exactly do you mean?
The return as in your gain per share since purchased?
YOY return?
Back in Oct 2022 I watched one of his stock analysis episode, bought NIKE that was down to somewhere around $85, 4 months later is was up $120 where I sold. Joseph is the best financial youtuber.
What app do you use for drawing on the screen? (The red pen)
What do you think about hersheys at this price?
I think it's looking like a snack! I did a video on it a month ago and all the fundamentals looked great! Wide moat, great brand, consistent cash flows, and low liability risk! Only challenges I see the market is perceiving are rising cocoa prices, and Ozempic
Amazon?
If you aren’t willing to sell Costco and go to cash (since you feel alternative companies are also fairly to over valued), then what is the point of doing this analysis?
Every morning you look at your portfolio and decide not to sell a company, you are effectively making a decision to buy it at the current price and valuation.
Tax implications are certainly something to consider, but if valuation truly matters, even taxes become moot at a certain level of overvaluation.
I don’t believe that making the decision not to sell is the same as making the decision to buy. Most great investors have had a bit more leniency on sell criteria than they did buy criteria. The valuations help create an anchor point and if these companies do get egregiously high in valuation I will start to take gains.
You could have picked CNR and CP. I have both.
Hey, I would love to have you explain where your cash flow numbers come from because I can't get the same results as you do? Thanks
Can someone explain why higher FCF yield leads to a lower annual return?
Yeah, I was confused on that as well. Shouldn’t it be the other way around. A higher yield would make the stock more valuable.
I'm currently deciding whether to go with Visa, Master Card or American Express. Which one would you suggest if I plan to hold it for a super long time? (10+ years)
I don't understand the reasoning of not selling (part) Costco if you consider it overvalued. You just showed us the are undervalued companies like Vici or CP... So is a bit confusing/contradictory.
why vici and not O realty income?
Fair valuations - I’m building up my cash position right now as well to hopefully 10% - I’ll be waiting patiently as well….
I am at 21%
I think 3% at the high end for the desired fcf yield is a bit rich? I understand paying more for highest quality businesses but paying 35-50 p/fcf seems a bit high price with little to no margin of safety.
Lump sum to investing is proven superior.
@@jasonbiletski4098 I like to use P/FCF better too.
@@jasonbiletski4098 Yeah, it for sure is. Of course everything can look like a no brainer investment if you justify that a 30x P/FCF is reasonable. For the vast majority of companies thats not the case though. Pretty inflated valuations imo.
Joseph, these are my favorite videos you do. Great content!
My model is very similar to you, but I sell when its over the intrinsic value every single time (eg: TXRH 70 to 128, MA 418 to 480), Im curious why you dont sell? Is it because you saw no other good opportunity? Or zen like Charlie? My Current position is META (414), GOOGL (130), PDD (110), Tencent (CNY 270) and BYD (CNY170), so far its going well.
Hey Joseph, where is NFLX in your portfolio? I didn't see it. Would have loved to hear your valuation on that one. Thanks!
in his story fund
NFLX is a bit expensive right now! But ofc it is going to be real tough to find this stock not trading at a big premium, since it's a monster!
Joseph really takes our comments into consideration, love this guy.
Qualtrim scenarios? Qualtrim just got ahead of the game, powerfull tool!
Hey Joseph, apple does a lot of share buybacks. So the shares outstanding are decreasing. Is that effect incorporated in these calculations?
Buybacks are done with FCF
hi j i would like to know wich stock on wich category please
Excited for this one!
For Mastercard, have you thought about delinquencies on cc bills. Similar to housing market crash with delinquencies on mortgage payments. Credit debt to GDP ratio just keeps soaring.
Fantastic video! Have you done a video in the past explaining your process of calculating the intrinsic value estimates for the companies in your portfolio? If not, please consider!
What about Netflix and Amazon??
They are both in his story fund! I think both are expensive right now, but it is going to be difficult to find these 2 stocks not trading at a huge premium due to both of them being monsters!
Would love to hear your thoughts on MELI
The entire market is red and Costco remains green. 46.5 PE RATIO
😅 ah Costco! I’m never gonna be able to buy a dip!
@@Thewealthyinvestor-cn3sg I still believe we will get a dip to the mid to high 5’s
Costco 🥶
46.5 PE Ratio is crazy... Think we might face some turbulences this year cause those PEs are not reasonable
I hope you make more of these videos. I like to know when I buy stocks at a fair value and not at overvalued price. 🤣 (You could also add your watch list stocks to these type of videos).
Hey Josephs how come you sold your position in realty income corp? You seemed to have a good outlook! Overall great video 🎉
why are returns going down if free cash flow yield is going up? isn't that backwards?
what I need to do to get the scenario tool in Qualtrim??
Would be interesting if dividends and buybacks were added to the return projections
no, since they both come from FCF.
They are already added. Both come from FCF
We have ways of incorporating it into the analysis by taking the free cash flow over the 5 year period and assuming they used it to do buybacks. This will be more clear in the next update on scenarios.
What’s the value of X when/ if your wrong?
Would love to see the same type of video for the other stocks you own!
Does qualtrim give some kind of intrinsic value?
Fantastic video JC, pls do more of these
Do you think GFL might become the next Waste Management? See their trucks everywhere in Canada.
Great video as always. However, I think assuming no margin expansion and using a more conservative future free cash flow yield gives more margin of safety even though the businesses are preditcable.
What your thoughts on cheap stores like 99 dollar tree etc. stocks are up high on charts
Hey Joe! When viewing your portfolio via the link under Description, I noticed Moody's is not shown. Is this link live or up to date? Thanks and I love your videos.
Hi Joseph, what are your thoughts on Bitcoin?
I'm retired now and have achieved a 22% return per anum in my 401k since 1/1/2008. I guarantee your portfolio will be cut in half or more during the next market correction. Earnings peak and knowing when that will happen for a given company with a PE over 20 is impossible so paying over 20 for any stock is simply a gamble that has become accepted today. Buying stocks with inflated PEs because of a belief in continued earnings growth is why the average investor fails to beat the market. My portfolio today has JBLU, PBR/A, MMM, WHR, and DOCU. Let's compare returns in 5 years.
A similar analysis of the primary equity indexes would also be interesting when compared to your portfolio as a composite.
How did you build over half a million in this portfolio? Just curious because it seems like such a big amount over a relatively short lifetime. Did you invest in individual stocks or was it through funds. What were your brokerage fees like? I started investing in S&P500 ETF’s, FTSE ETF’s and index funds in Vanguard. So far they’re interesting but I’ve been doing it for about 12 months now my return is about 10% but I’m dealing with small numbers of $3000. Any tips?
Why not start with current valuation in sector,? Future growth, market share hard to predict
Waiting patiently with a lot of cash is a good place to be
I’m right there with you I want to buy a few things now but the price is just too high
Same here! Started buying these companies but have stopped recently since their valuations are over the roof now
Thanks for the video man! My portfolio looks very similar.
Just buying etfs while im waiting on a dip for costco
@JospehCarlsonShow
You mentioned holding a lot of cash and waiting for your opportunity at the end of the video.
Will you DCA a set amount in the meantime?
Are you still looking into Arista Networks? You mentioned some time ago. The company is growing, price seems high but financials look good. Would be curious to hear about your analysis.
Joseph what do you think of ADM?
What about buying brkb ?
I don't agree with the opportunity cost. You can for sure find better opportunities than Costco going forward. Even a decent pick will do better over the next 5 years according to your own valuation. It's about margin of safety and the risk of losing money too.
Nice video. What about Canadian National Railway?
Great, video and thanks for being very transparent and thoughtful about your portfolio and how you think, but my only comment regarding your video is that Free cash flow is not discounted, unless I am missing something ?
I like your approach however, if you insist on carrying a 12 stock portfolio, I'd scale down on the "Financial sector" and add to the "Tech sector". Maybe drop SPGI and keep INTU, MA, and MCO and add NVDA to your "Tech Sector".
I'm super new to this channel. I'm loving your approach but am just confused on how there's 2 separate portfolios? You seem to usually refer to your dividend portfolio holdings - I didn't even realize you held Amazon for instance, until hearing it mentioned in another video and now from seeing your growth portfolio M1.
I'm curious as to the reason for this, and why it seems that S&P and Apple are considered to be in both funds. Other than that I'm loving your channel, and I look forward to getting through your other videos, thank you!
One thing about real investing, it does not make for interesting videos if you've already seen Carlson do a breakdown of his portfolio a thousand times. But this is real investing. Buy quality companies, hold them, watch them grow, adjust as changes occur.
As Peter Lynch said boring investing is generally good investing!
It'd be good if you shared your opinion about LVMH
I am currently holding NVO, MSFT, AMZN, XOM, TXRH and NU in order 🙏 I will be DCAing for the rest of the year
Let's go!! Great strategy! Best of luck
Joseph, when you make buys are you straight up buying or using Cash Secured Puts? Thoughts on the CSP strategy?
I believe he buys directly! And he does monthly buys until he gets to his target allocation %
For fun, do you have a "flop 10" ? Like 10 companies massively overvalued that we could "sell" ?
i think this tool only works for FCF generating companies, what about others..?
These projections are a fart in the wind
Thanks for listening to my comment and all the positive feedback it got!! Happy new year mate
Best investment channel on YT. Love the balanced and logical approach.
Hi Joseph, great insight on Mastercard. But how do you see the competitor, Visa? Visa is making good profits over the years too, how did you compare these 2 and why did you go for MA over V or even AXP?
Im curious, is there a reason why you chose to go with SPGI/ MCO and not MSCI?
Yes, its about the rating business.
Does Qualtrim support TSX (Canadian Stocks)?
Yes you can search TSX. Just use the drop down selector.
Is CP RAIL - undervalued ?
Waste management meets all your criteria except maybe the valuation
Well done. You should do your other fund too. Especially interested in your valuation of googl and amzn.
Regarding chipotle, their strategy is so obvious. Any time they reintroduce carne asada, it’s a buy.
Your work and dedication is incredible!!! Thank you for sharing your knowledge 🤩
I am buying anyway. I want to get out of cash. Thank you so much for your detailed assesment.