'Superforecasting': The people that predict the future - BBC REEL
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- Опубликовано: 17 янв 2023
- The power to predict the future is often the stuff of myths and superstition. But according to the Good Judgement project by the American psychologist and political scientist, Philip Tetlock, the ability to predict the future is a skill that can be learned and developed. He has spent 40 years studying how some people are particularly good at seeing what is around the corner.
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Executive Producer: Camelia Sadeghzadeh
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The funny part of the editing of this video is that while laughing off tarot cards, the researchers basically just rediscovered what fortune tellers already knew, which is that keen observation of human behavior and a knowledge of the workings of human societies is the key to telling fortunes. Reading cards for instance is not just literally reading the cards, its also about reading the client, hearing their inflections, and understanding their wants, desires, regrets, motivations, etc. Of course the fortune teller also excells at pandering and is even better at telling people what they want to hear than they are at making accurate future predictions.
But the principle is the same and it is one that no doubt goes back to the Sumerian astrologers who for all of their computations of astronomical positions, used their own judgement to make the final prediction.
Very true. Laughing at tarot cars is like laughing at graphs and charts. They're not different. People have access to informatio over many layers. Emotions, thoughts, sensations, observations and so on. Each of them requirs their respective set of tools. It's like an architect and a construction worker mocking each other for their respective tools when both have very valuable means to create a house!! And them working together is what gets the very best and complete results.
If we are talking about predicting with diverse background, then that is pretty much what has been done for ages by humans in the spiritual scene. many languages and tools are allowed there, many ppl from many backgrounds are there. Many methods and skill levels are present. Science has developed from places of "superstition" just to return to understanding that they were judging things from their perspecives that they did not understand. When t the end of the day, all perspectives belong together to see all sides of the issue at hand.
I do wonder when we'll all get mature enough to respect each others work, discoveries and tools and do a better job at working together in all matters of importance. Instead of constantly working with just one puzzle piece each and lots of people having to go though a huge lot of effort to figure out where they'll find all puzzle pieces to their "need for support" while their providers point fingers at each other and show 0 undertsanding for the respective "others".
😅Guess we're making good progress here n there? Anchient meditation techniques or body movements being acknowledged and improved on both sides and such?
@Jon The validation with fortune tellers, both good and bad, has been around for centuries. If you mean scientific validation... then all that has happened here is that this group has taken the basis of fortune telling and channeled it into a methodology that can be scientifically validated. So one validates the other. Again, a great deal of the focus of fortune telling is graft, but this methodology could just as easily be applied to graft, with even better success because of the validation backing it.
It really is about learning to disregard the received 'wisdom' of your society, overlaid, embellished and simply degraded by time as it is, when reality is clearly presenting a different story. This video was focused heavily on the process of collecting and comparing information in an analytic way. The weak part of this is that one is relying on a basic pool of information which itself may me greatly limited.
Very well said
I'm guessing that intellectual modesty was a common trait too, as opposed to people who are convinced of their deep intuitive powers.
I would also bet that many of them don't have strong (partisan) political beliefs.
it can suck to have that capacity. Half of the time you feel crazy, cause you pick up on patterns years early and when everyone ends up shocked by the turn of events, you get frowned upon for not reacting with shock, as you've already felt dead inside for a while over trying to warn ppl, but understanding they lack the data to do so and you not being perceived as creditable enough to serve as enough reason for change.
It isn't before several rounds (granted you survive them and stay sane enough) that people eventually figure out, that following your "gut feeling" might not be a bad idea. The concept of Highly Sensitive Persons (HSP) plays into this. Based on how ... was it ~25% of animal herds being born with more perceptive nervous systems and being the first to flee. Them being followed by their peers and thus having better survival chances as a group. And some of us being born (& trained by life) that way, too.
Great ❤
Only time I saw things from the future was in a dream. No lie. But it only happen once or twice and it was when I was a child.
Around July last year a friend had a dream that my father-in-law would die in the near future. A few months later my father-in-law went for a scan and discovered he had late stage metastatic cancer, we helped to nurse him but they died 4 weeks later. Many aspects of the dream were completely accurate. 2 months later we are still in shock as he wasn't particularly old and no-one, including himself, had any idea he was ill. But the freakiest part of all is my friend's prediction, it's added such a surreal element to the whole thing. Since all this I am studying quantum physics, psychic ability, time distortion, anything to try to understand where the dream came from and how it was so accurate.
This has nothing to do with forecasting in this video. Super forecaters are using rigorous science to predict scenarios in many different fields.
The closest I came to this was participating in the IARPA Good Judgement platform for Team Carbon.
Wish I did more there, but was happy that my research got me to that point.
Criminal this only has 12k views out of a human population of 8 billlion -
The future is easy to predict, as evolution is a foregone conclusion
It was clear to me by age ten that there was no free will - that events flowed into and around each other and that any choice was an illusion. If you study Mathematics you can find this in detail. But strangely, that makes me think that the future could be very predictable - if you have followed the event chains and can reason from them.
The laws of probability
There is no free will if you blindly follow the highest propabability. But humans are very diverse and many love to change course and do so regardless of what probability says.
Everything exists.
Mathematics are a language and a way to trace, understand and predict information, but at the end of the day, so much more goes into the choices of people, that it's far from being that simple.
There's major differences between systems and individuals, too.
Assuming "there's no free will" in this existence full of diversity, is not just boring, but also disregarding of diversity itself. Choice exists. EVERY choice comes with costs. Propability is the scew occuring from certain cost seeming higher. However, they only appear that way from certain perspectives, too. And people very naturally undergo change, changing perspectives and thus, making choices. Calculating how x people made B choice form A B C, will not tell you without failure if the next and next and next person will take B, too. The odds are the same each time.
Sure, if you say that you could technically find the math to express all that is, then you can just as well say "all that is" and have the words express the very same. And yet, you will not be able to predict. For we have the choice to follow or not follow the next mathematically logical step. :'D
@@KxNOxUTA You don't understand. You cannot do other than your experience leads you to do. There is no free will only the appearance of it. Every event from the beginning of time creates further events. You were born, for example, in America - you cannot suddenly behave like a Hindu. You would have to study and learn about it first and you would choose it either because you had been led to rebel or because you were raised to try new things or because something in it matches your desires. All of which were part of your upbringing. Otherwise you grow up in pretty much the same manner as all American children. There is no free willl about any of that or even your denying me. Get it now?
@@seekthetruth8803 THAT religion is the LAST one I would choose since I am a woman. Why the prophet hated women I don't know, but he clearly did.
@@KxNOxUTA Theoretically butterfly effects may often throw people off course, but it's not likely that evolution would have allowed a species consisting of such individuals to survive. As more plausible must appear that populations act on a basis of stable, of reliable algorithms. You can watch with mankind how individualists are again and again harassed and hindered from influencing others.
🤔💜🧡💛💚💙🤨
The truth is more important than anything else, without it, you can not survive or thrive in reality.
Pretending or wishing something is or isn't true does not make it so.
Can you handle a truth?
There is no universe in which Ukraine defeats Russia.
I PREDICT I'm not going to hire this post production team.
OMG. Did someone get a deal on a cheap pack of plugins and run to nearest bulk stock site they could find?
This is WAY too busy to follow. Stop applying the same effects over & over. Simplify the concepts visually.
What he has to say is really interesting but the barrage of visuals chokes him out.
Pair down the imagery to things that directly relate to what he is talking about - not loose interpretations of his concepts and dozens of symbolic images. Focus on what he's saying and try a little voice-over to sew things together rather that awkward silence and forcing the viewer to read huge text on the screen.
Watch more 'Vox' videos and fewer 'Half as Interestings' (which I can only listen to for the same reason).
Think is easy. Act is hard.
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People can predict the future sometimes but that if god allows that to happen for reason protect your beliefs and stand firm