maybe their goal is NOT to make as much money as possible??? It IS possible to have truly intelligent people running a business... people focused on improving humanity's existence instead of using everyone to make one person's life as "good" as possible... just a thought... what do i know
I sold my FB stock because of your analysis. FB stock went up to the moon a few months later. One of my biggest mistakes. I have PLTR so I won’t make the same mistake.
Bro if you sold meta at any level below 250-then you don’t understand valuation. Anyone who wasn’t buying below 150 is an idiot. Just bc a you tuber had a bearish stance on a stock you sold??? Got a lot to learn my friend.
Your first mistake is depending on someone to tell you when to buy and sell instead of hearing it as an opinion....you're gonna keep losing more then you make.
He lacks the understanding that, Palantir is not in the business of producing models, but in the business of orchestrating AI, and very few do it correctly.
I'm no expert but I feel like palantir are well aware of their competition and do having a pricing strategy - they are pricing AIP low to remove friction for companies with the like of AWS and Azure already and when they see how it works and how valuable it is they will be stuck with it and pricing power will ensue
They have explicitly stated they can price out its competitors with a better product. Not worried about them falling behind--they pay money for good talent, which hurt them in the near term, but it's paying them dividends in the long term. Been a holder of PLTR since its DPO in 2020 and glad to have it today.
@@fernsmoraname a time when governments were ever worried about budgets!!!? Palantirs clients aren’t going to pay for a cheap, hackable product or startup with no history. Not going to happen…
@I_want_stocks I have a separate account where I used to buy $100 worth of stock and never look at it or touch it.( $1k / year budget) I don't remember how many shares I received but last time I looked it was up around $14k . Also have Amazon , tesla ... Prefer to forget about palm and AOL. I have a completely different account with a different bank to do more active trading. They are far away from each other so I'm not tempted to touch it. .... a friend bought me 3 bit coins for x-mas when they were worth $30 . I thought I lost them until I went through my old boxes during covid. Hundred or two hundred don't hurt if they don't make it, but it kills that horrible feeling of. I should have kept it, or I should have bought it. .... I lost a bunch of money during. Com but saw the financial crisis coming. When I bought a house. ... at least you can sleep in it no matter what tue price is.
@micro-organism-pv5gd that's not what I was referring to but jobs getting kicked out of his own company covers that scenario. Lots of want to be Ai out there. Someone will get lucky., and I think it will be luck .
1 month ago i wrote here that this is fear mongering at its best and that you could put any name instead of Palantir in this video. The whole video is complete usless
I like Alex’s videos, this one I can’t figure out though. If you look at what Karp is saying in the recent past, it only pointed to positive events…not Doom. Puzzling
Alex’s analysis of the underlying technologies is always very insightful. But his investment acumen is suspect, which makes sense since his background is in science not finance.
This is not a consumer product. It’s enterprise software. Your apple comparison is apples to oranges. Enterprises care only about ROI. Karp is saying in his strategy that he is basically going to start the pricing out low, give enterprises the software and charge them over time as they recognize the roi. That is exactly what his strategy should be. Other than that all you’re saying is that there is competition. Point taken. And that they aren’t growing as fast as you’d like. Point taken. But the market is obviously pricing in reaccelerating growth. If you don’t think that will happen, fair enough. But with a massive and ever increasing TAM, I happen to think it will, and that there’s plenty of room for all the players you mentioned.
My cost basis on PLTR is a little over $9 per share. PLTR is growing, 17% is what I got from the clip here. From what I have read AI is going to be a monster and it seems there is room for more companies to make a killing than what we have to chose from now. C3-AI get's 85% revenue from just one customer. So they don't seem like big competition. MSFT is always competition as are other players in this sector. I think owning several of the AI companies will be a winning strategy. I own 5 and I will hold all of them and if just 3 of 5 are big winners, I'll be a happy camper. Great video but doesn't make me want to sell PLTR..
Thanks for the video man, although just a few things I disagree with: I think the Apple comparison does hold true better in a B to C environment (where consumers can be lazy) rather than B to B. I think business won’t have a choice but to go for the best if it means they’re not competitive. If your competitors are seeing massive YoY improvements simply due to better software, you won’t be questioning the ease of integration. Eventually you will have to bite that bullet. Yes, distribution is a big advantage, but also complacency can lead to the downfall of the incumbents which you mentioned. Also, Palantir have improved on the demos and also are well aware if the need to modularise their offerings and go further downstream. Final note, Apple won in the end because they had a far superior product, first. Palantir did also start from roots of identifying the consumer’s problem (government, yes) and developing a solution to combat that, not the other way around.
Apple also won in the enterprise. People started refusing to use their company provided blackberries because they already had an iPhone and didn’t want to use two devices. Companies jumped on the opportunity to have their employees buy their own hardware.
I like how you bring up the dichotomy of Alex Karp's value perspective and Steve Jobs product market fit perspective. Did you consider that Alex's context is B2B while Steve's was B2C (in the beginning)? If you did consider this how did it inform your commentary on this matter. If you did not, do you have any new considerations?
This video is fear mongering at it´s best. You can pretty much put any name there instead of Palantir, Meta, FB, Apple Microsoft and so on. If any company has any competition in this world this video could be their video (insert name here). Also i see a person down here writing: I sold my FB stock because of your analysis. FB stock went up to the moon a few months later. One of my biggest mistakes. I have PLTR so I won’t make the same mistake. Your answer: Yeah, a few months after they COMPLETELY CHANGED DIRECTION. Maybe re-check your opinions on a stock more than twice a year? How can a company doing a thousand thing "completely" change directions? They are not makeing 1 type of rubber ducks, then change it to a rubber dog. A company the size of Meta have so freaking many lines they are working on and we probebly don´t know half of them. Meta has a preliminary line on each segment with a plan B, C, D, E, F, G if A fails and i am sure Palantir is no different.
Guys before you go haywire and sell everything make sure you understand a RUclipsr’s job is to make videos for a living and this guy is the pinnacle of that and I’m convinced him like many others don’t really understand markets and how they really work. Be safe out there and do your own research.
Fabric and Q arent just inferior, they simply dont do the same tasks. Neither one has ontology, they simply are trying to integrate an LLM into their workflow. Yes they have a huge advantage in distribution, but if anything their limitations will be an advertisement for PLTR. Your solution seems inferior to bootcamps they are running. Using their software on a fictional company might be interesting, but its far more interesting to have it done on your company with your data with experts helping you. Jobs point applies more to the public and layperson, not companies looking to solve their complex problems. If PLTR cant keep up with demand they must be doing something right.
Good analysis and you definitely give good reason to be hesitant on Palantir, and you’re right that the best product doesn’t always win. Devil’s advocate response: AI is a different animal. I think Karp is right in that companies will pay for the best product. We’re seeing that with Nvidia. There is a mindset that if you don’t have the best AI, your AI will get beat and you’ll be in danger of falling behind and becoming obsolete. Not getting the best product increases your risk of that happening.
I’m not confident enough in Palantir to make it a core position, but like the risk/reward profile for a small stake. We’ll probably start to get an idea of what way it will shake out after the upcoming earnings call. I see the stock either skyrocketing or plummeting after reporting.
You are so much better than MeetKevin, or Jeremy. You seem to always bring me a perspective worth thinking about, and I rarely feel you are trying to sell me anything, such as a "class" or an "expensive" membership. This is why I tend to want to watch your stuff, and seem to only skim theirs.
Legitimate concerns. MSFT will be able to do 80% of what PLTR can do with a significant cost advantage and ease of deployment. PLTR will own the large-scale complex customer that still uses legacy IT systems, but for the majority of businesses, the AWS vendors will be able to offer a good solution. If anything, this will cause a more rapid conversion to an outsourced IT cloud infrastructure once companies see that this conversion comes with a solid AI-enabled data analysis solution baked into the product versus needing to spend millions and millions to deploy a more complex PLTR product. But again, I am not saying PLTR will not be viable = they will still be a good player for the large-scale legacy companies.
"The best technical product never wins". I can confirm that first hand after 20 years of experience in software in silicon valley and in Europe. If you focus primarily on the technology you forget about the customer's real needs they will always prefer inferior products with good marketing and you will lose.
one of the best (if not the best) analysis on Palantir, fully agree on how view its problems, the strengths in its product, and weaknesses, or to say lack of focus on the pricing side of things. Big respect for all these amazing videos, ganna spend time to watch them all and learrnnnnn!!!
Palantir should consider commoditizing some part of their technology that is more cookie cutter to a subset of their customer base. This is important for the company to scale.
Thanks for the Video helps me know more about PLTR. However, I see PLTR a little different view as you do w/t Karp's business pricing strategy. I do agree with his choice of keeping the service price high to maximize profits. PLTR has different products, different customers compared with other companies that have common every day products like AAPL or MSFT. I would invest in PLTR for a specific niche market.
You always earn a like. I have PLTR and Alex Karp is what swayed me to finally jump in. It's finally green and the long covered call I've been holding will expire worthless in Jan. You've given me something more to think about, whether I'll just sell another call and hold, or take the small profit and move on.
Upcoming earnings for PLTR will give an important clue if new AIP strategy is working. I expect big, really big results from Palantir, and will be doubling my position before the next earnings report. I anticipate all of the questions presented here to be answered in 2024.
PLNR, one person shouldn't wear every hat, it's not always a good fit or look, great recommendations, I hope they at least consider it. Great stuff, I enjoy and learn so much from your show, thanks!
Palantir has not really ever targeted the market of smaller business entities or to be a player in "retail" AI software (MSFT, etc) ...as they are geared towards mega enterprises and government operations. They already have partnerships with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN and are forming others, as they deem suitable for their future growth. I think PLTR will dominate the specific segment of AI they have targeted. PLTR will continue to be a long term hold for me (dca $10.5), just like my AMZN (dca $38.4; 334%) and APPL (dca $18.5; 939%) have been.
So true, it's not about the technology or tech team... it's all about the business side and those relationships. Speaking from my experience as an engineer and field application engineer in several silicon valley companies.
These are valid questions. I see last year as the Gold Rush era of AI. There's gold in those hills. Nvidia been raking it in since they own the picks and shovel. Everyone else is setting up shop at the base and trying to figure out how they'll make money/mine gold. This year will be crucial.
@@TickerSymbolYOU You read something in my comment that wasn't actually there, either explicitly or implicitly. Read my question again and, think for a moment, and answer. You might consider posting a video explaining how Palantir succeeded despite the challenges brought on by its arrogance or how it succeeded despite nonstop negative press, promulgated by CNBC, Bloomberg, and their analysts who all share the same worldview. Just a thought.
This how Palantir always operated since day 1. Revenue and cash flow grew significantly. I really don’t understand why it is a no go now. PLTR grew in 2023, other big tech still recovering. I noticed that the negative opinions here on youtube are stemming from sentiment rather than changing fundamentals. This video is an example. And to be honest, that sounds bullish for PLTR since it is not a busy trade and retail exposure seems low.
I am extremely proud of myself that I add a few thousand shares of Palantir recently. Palantir is a cash cow already with zero debt. US commercial sector grows 70 ％ YoY.
I remember when you basically did a similar video about NVidia, back then I thought you were legit, so I changed my mind and didn’t buy. And then it exploded.
You comparing Apple hardware 20 years ago to SaaS and AIP today seems odd, not mention saying Microsoft and AWS are competitors. I don’t believe you really think C3ai is a Palantir competitor too, unless you’re on the short side of a trade and hoping your thesis will put downward pressure on the company stock, that never works for more than a day at best. I used to watch your videos and now I remember why I haven’t in a long time and if I remember correctly you’re a ARK fanboy. I find analysis weak when they seem to be emotionally invested in a person running a fund based off hype and not fundamentals. But that’s what makes a market.
Excellent analysis with some very valid questions asked! The Star Wars demo is brilliant and would love to see it come into fruition. Palantir have certainly grounded their confidence after a successful year, and I believe in them, but as you’ve stated there are absolutely some adjustments required in order to truly hit the ground running.
the naivety of "we know the best product will win amazes me and means i am not investing in them. Betamax was better than VHS - but VHS won.. .the best product does NOT automatically win to win you need "good"/saleable products (not best), good marketing, good sales and good strategies... PLTR just throws all those out. sad :(
Interesting arguments. My counter would be that Palantir makes AI solutions to beat the competition. So if they are their own client they will be trying to crush the opposition in their field. They let the others decide pricing and features to then beat them on features and price. My guess is their main problem in growing is hiring AI experts. You can only scale employee count so fast, if you want to stay EBITDA positive.
I respectfully disagree. I purchased shares the day of the direct listing with the intent of holding at least 10 years. I only wish I had more money to purchase more shares.
Is pltr revenue growing? Yes Is pltr profit growing? Yes Is the number of clients growing? Yes Is pltr ahead in their specific business? Yes Is AI business growing? Yes, so even big competitors come, there is still room to grow for all the participants. Are rates going down? Yes Is liquidity surging? Yes Rates down and liquidity up excellent for this type of stock independently of the growth/profit analysis. Is pltr price overstreched? Yes Can it consolidate? Yes All in all i do not see pltr doomed at all. If pltr is doomed then the 40% unprofitable stocks in the Russell 2000 are also doomed and investors are piling up on them now that Powell has fully pivoted. Good luck to all investors
You pretty much pointed so many good things about the company, I like Alex Karp he’s a smart brave guy and I trust him to drive the company into prosperity
"Trust Palantir with their data". AI has a lot of potential to pressure Palantir; however, the "trust" factor and its ultra-high security clearance are moats that Palantir will help them defend their position as they continue to develop and expand its AI applications and tools. Very informative video and worth keeping a very close eye on.
I honestly don’t think you have enough of a background to say Palantir is doomed, especially by next year.. Like you said, you barely scratched the surface of foundry, let alone AIP, or any of the vendors.
I’ve been dollar cost averaging PLTR since 2020 from $11 up to $30’s down to $7 and back up to $20. PLTR had a huge advantage. 50% of their sales are government so protected from recession. 18 years experience, consistent revenue growth, no debt, profitable, better price to earnings than other ai plays. I’ll be holding and buying PLTR for years to come. The absolute floor IMO for this stock is 150B so that’s 2 xto a bearish valuation long term. And lastly it doesn’t matter who wins the ai wars to PLTR. Any LLM come out on top and PLTR grows. My 2 cents. Lastly
So will you sell your PLTR positions and purchase AI Stock? Question: If any of the AI developments / Working models were show or asked how to make Forge work better would that AI program be able to make it better and not violate patents?
thanks Alex for your insights, its helps stay based on our expectations on the potential performance of the compagny, i will still keep my position for the two to tree upcoming years to see, as they just need couples of tweacks to make it
They literally develop custom software for companies via forward deployed engineers. How is that not meeting customers at their needs? That clip of Karp saying they have no monetization strategy is old now. Bootcamps are changing that. It’s proving to be a brilliant sales tactic. At least Snowflake thinks so. Steve Jobs is talking in more of a business to consumer context vs B to B I think. You do know they have been letting businesses use products for free right? That’s not gonna help their yr over yr growth. Don’t you understand their growth strategy? Nice video but now they are laying a foundation for future growth.
Great video, even if palantir went up so much, your arguments are still very valid, but I believe that what you have pointed out are not fatal weaknesses, when you have a solid product in hand, pricing strategy is really not the most difficult part.
According to Palantir’s latest quarterly report, which covers the period from October 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, its NDR by segments are as follows3: US commercial: 150% US government: 141% International government: 161% Total: 131%
Product Market Fit for Enterprise / non B2C areas is a bit different than B2C. Steve Jobs does indeed make a great point about B2C products. For B2B the decision maker will look at the numbers and decide for the rest of the department or company what tool/software they will use. Palantir seems to have a head start when it comes to the value proposition for large enterprise / governments. Until Amazon or someone similar comes bragging that they are signing similar contracts to Palantir's NHS one, I think they will continue to seem to be ahead.
Nope! He had an NDA for the use of Foundry! He exited the deal while in compliance and let us know that it ain’t all sunshine like we thought! It cost nothing to pay attention!!!
great insights as usual, Alex - appreciate the effort sharing this "story" - as an investor, i grow unsure about PLTR.. they're not an AAPL, CEO needs to score more "trust" , and as a company i don't see that huge of an addressable market that can ensure growth and appreciation of their stock.. it's just a niche player.. so will always pass on them
That was a good analysis. I’ve always thought you were way too product focused and not enough delivery focused. I learned a long time ago, at great monetary loss, that company success comes from a product that is: Adequate Well supported Readily available Most superior products fail! Betamax!
Haters gonna hate LMAO , PLTR is going to make people a lot of money, ignore this take its bogus and just wants to promote his sponsors . This is all old news
Great idea to build a Foundry version of Star Wars. It would be a great online multiplayer persistent world and suck in every company IT staffer to play it at home. Staff who would have to be told to “evaluate this for benefits to us,” will play themselves into obsessed Palantir salespeople. 🤩 Note: I’ve been in computers since 1970. Every consultant group projects every conceivable market/trend will grow 40% per year. People only hire consultants to hear good news and 40% is a bankable number. Karp is right-by ignoring the 40% targets he can organically flow into the 12,000% opportunity. Great report!
It seems that Alex Karp is not that ambitious in making as much money as Palantir could make, and this is a bad thing especially for the stock owners of Palantir. Palantir as a company will do just fine. But their business side.....Nvidia is a greed greed company. And we all know how big it will become.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a crypto market for just few months and now they are millionaires , all thanks to Mrs Moraine, God bless you madam 😇
Like I said in the video, Palantir has the best AI software in the world. That’s not the point of this video and the most recent earnings call doesn’t invalidate anything I said. The price is just higher.
Doubt it. He is just like the rest of the analysts. The narratives follow the stock price. Talk shit about the stocks when the prices are down. Kiss the CEOs' ass when the stocks are at the top. lol
This is a very good skeptical take on PLTR! In addition to the Star Wars idea (which might run into IP issues) there's also Eve Online, which has a complex data model, including a simulation of another world's economic system.
9:20 that's such a perfect way to describe something like Slack versus MS Teams. When we switched over to Teams 2 years ago everyone universally hated it compared to slack, now we are still using it lol
@@TickerSymbolYOU in case of bullshit apps which anyone can make, i agree. But in AI, the product that will win is the one which unlocks the most value. The user interface and user friendliness doesn’t matter.
![Noob To Max With DRAGON REWORK In Blox Fruits [FULL MOVIE]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/LnBMOinoOvA/mqdefault.jpg)
You can protect your privacy and support the channel by getting 20% off DeleteMe at joindeleteme.com/SYMBOL20
maybe their goal is NOT to make as much money as possible??? It IS possible to have truly intelligent people running a business... people focused on improving humanity's existence instead of using everyone to make one person's life as "good" as possible... just a thought... what do i know
I sold my FB stock because of your analysis. FB stock went up to the moon a few months later. One of my biggest mistakes. I have PLTR so I won’t make the same mistake.
Yeah, a few months after they COMPLETELY CHANGED DIRECTION. Maybe re-check your opinions on a stock more than twice a year?
Bro if you sold meta at any level below 250-then you don’t understand valuation. Anyone who wasn’t buying below 150 is an idiot. Just bc a you tuber had a bearish stance on a stock you sold??? Got a lot to learn my friend.
These comments can't be real. Unbelievably entitled and self-centered, did 29 real people actually agree with this!? Idiots.
Do not blame. Take responsibility for your own decisions and actions.
Your first mistake is depending on someone to tell you when to buy and sell instead of hearing it as an opinion....you're gonna keep losing more then you make.
This one aged like fine milk ...
why?
Like other TSU videos... cough "buying AMD over Nvidia" cough
@@ΒύρωναςΛαδιάς 16$ - 28$ in the past 6 months... 70% ROI... This was dogshit analysis, and was completely wrong.
He lacks the understanding that, Palantir is not in the business of producing models, but in the business of orchestrating AI, and very few do it correctly.
@@ianluyten1210 it did didn't it, but as always it's good to see different points of view
I'm no expert but I feel like palantir are well aware of their competition and do having a pricing strategy - they are pricing AIP low to remove friction for companies with the like of AWS and Azure already and when they see how it works and how valuable it is they will be stuck with it and pricing power will ensue
They have explicitly stated they can price out its competitors with a better product. Not worried about them falling behind--they pay money for good talent, which hurt them in the near term, but it's paying them dividends in the long term. Been a holder of PLTR since its DPO in 2020 and glad to have it today.
When you try to out price your competitors, it is a race to the bottom.
@@fernsmoraname a time when governments were ever worried about budgets!!!? Palantirs clients aren’t going to pay for a cheap, hackable product or startup with no history. Not going to happen…
It's one of those stocks you want to keep and forget until they rule the world .
( i still have apple from 1995)
May I ask how much is your apple stock is worth now?
@I_want_stocks I have a separate account where I used to buy $100 worth of stock and never look at it or touch it.( $1k / year budget)
I don't remember how many shares I received but last time I looked it was up around $14k . Also have Amazon , tesla ...
Prefer to forget about palm and AOL.
I have a completely different account with a different bank to do more active trading. They are far away from each other so I'm not tempted to touch it.
.... a friend bought me 3 bit coins for x-mas when they were worth $30 .
I thought I lost them until I went through my old boxes during covid.
Hundred or two hundred don't hurt if they don't make it, but it kills that horrible feeling of. I should have kept it, or I should have bought it.
.... I lost a bunch of money during. Com but saw the financial crisis coming.
When I bought a house. ... at least you can sleep in it no matter what tue price is.
@@I_want_stocks he is lying
@micro-organism-pv5gd that's not what I was referring to but jobs getting kicked out of his own company covers that scenario.
Lots of want to be Ai out there. Someone will get lucky., and I think it will be luck .
Still have Amazon at 20 bucks lol
If it's anything like the arguments against TSLA "The competition is coming" ... it's all good :)
Not reall musk making cheap teslas now
Any new update on rethinking the PLRT Doomed headline?
Haha 😂 yeah,
I hope you didn't sell your PLTR position. I held on to my 1800 shares, should have added more when it retraced to 15, but I can't complain.
1 month ago i wrote here that this is fear mongering at its best and that you could put any name instead of Palantir in this video. The whole video is complete usless
I like Alex’s videos, this one I can’t figure out though. If you look at what Karp is saying in the recent past, it only pointed to positive events…not Doom. Puzzling
Thank goodness I did not dump the stock and held it!
Alex’s analysis of the underlying technologies is always very insightful. But his investment acumen is suspect, which makes sense since his background is in science not finance.
You turned me on to PLTR at $7.68. Life changing!
Awesome and congratulations!!
You do understand Palantir has had partnerships with Google Cloud, Azure and AWS since 2021, yes?
And as of today, also Oracle Cloud. This vid “analysis” aged sooo badly lol
I doubt that they are really doomed.
He clarified at the end, that they are doomed from "reaching their full potential." That is a bit easier of a prediction to make.
Still...@@cupwithhandles
yup! @@guvna542
When this video was made PLTR was around $6. Today, a couple of months later its around $25.
You're either really bad at math or you've traveled through time. Either way, this comment is totally bogus.
Wasn't $6. It was $16.
Now $25
Still a decent return.
This is not a consumer product. It’s enterprise software. Your apple comparison is apples to oranges. Enterprises care only about ROI. Karp is saying in his strategy that he is basically going to start the pricing out low, give enterprises the software and charge them over time as they recognize the roi. That is exactly what his strategy should be. Other than that all you’re saying is that there is competition. Point taken. And that they aren’t growing as fast as you’d like. Point taken. But the market is obviously pricing in reaccelerating growth. If you don’t think that will happen, fair enough. But with a massive and ever increasing TAM, I happen to think it will, and that there’s plenty of room for all the players you mentioned.
Agree that analogy was completely off base; its more like comparing AAPLs to Lasagna - Ordinary people vs Enterprise IT and Data workers.
Man, that was excellent. Don't see content like this in the stock space.
I appreciate you!
My cost basis on PLTR is a little over $9 per share. PLTR is growing, 17% is what I got from the clip here. From what I have read AI is going to be a monster and it seems there is room for more companies to make a killing than what we have to chose from now. C3-AI get's 85% revenue from just one customer. So they don't seem like big competition. MSFT is always competition as are other players in this sector. I think owning several of the AI companies will be a winning strategy. I own 5 and I will hold all of them and if just 3 of 5 are big winners, I'll be a happy camper. Great video but doesn't make me want to sell PLTR..
Which 5 AI companies do you currently own?
@@brianbell5887 PLTR, NVDA. SOUN, AI, ADBE
Thanks for the video man, although just a few things I disagree with: I think the Apple comparison does hold true better in a B to C environment (where consumers can be lazy) rather than B to B. I think business won’t have a choice but to go for the best if it means they’re not competitive. If your competitors are seeing massive YoY improvements simply due to better software, you won’t be questioning the ease of integration. Eventually you will have to bite that bullet. Yes, distribution is a big advantage, but also complacency can lead to the downfall of the incumbents which you mentioned. Also, Palantir have improved on the demos and also are well aware if the need to modularise their offerings and go further downstream. Final note, Apple won in the end because they had a far superior product, first. Palantir did also start from roots of identifying the consumer’s problem (government, yes) and developing a solution to combat that, not the other way around.
Exactly what I was thinking
Apple also won in the enterprise. People started refusing to use their company provided blackberries because they already had an iPhone and didn’t want to use two devices. Companies jumped on the opportunity to have their employees buy their own hardware.
@@MartinRigbyRGB But Oracle is always more better than MSSql.
I like how you bring up the dichotomy of Alex Karp's value perspective and Steve Jobs product market fit perspective. Did you consider that Alex's context is B2B while Steve's was B2C (in the beginning)? If you did consider this how did it inform your commentary on this matter. If you did not, do you have any new considerations?
This video is fear mongering at it´s best. You can pretty much put any name there instead of Palantir, Meta, FB, Apple Microsoft and so on. If any company has any competition in this world this video could be their video (insert name here).
Also i see a person down here writing: I sold my FB stock because of your analysis. FB stock went up to the moon a few months later. One of my biggest mistakes. I have PLTR so I won’t make the same mistake.
Your answer: Yeah, a few months after they COMPLETELY CHANGED DIRECTION. Maybe re-check your opinions on a stock more than twice a year?
How can a company doing a thousand thing "completely" change directions? They are not makeing 1 type of rubber ducks, then change it to a rubber dog. A company the size of Meta have so freaking many lines they are working on and we probebly don´t know half of them. Meta has a preliminary line on each segment with a plan B, C, D, E, F, G if A fails and i am sure Palantir is no different.
I love the fact that they have a model for every individual company, it shows their strength not their weakness
Guys before you go haywire and sell everything make sure you understand a RUclipsr’s job is to make videos for a living and this guy is the pinnacle of that and I’m convinced him like many others don’t really understand markets and how they really work. Be safe out there and do your own research.
Fabric and Q arent just inferior, they simply dont do the same tasks. Neither one has ontology, they simply are trying to integrate an LLM into their workflow. Yes they have a huge advantage in distribution, but if anything their limitations will be an advertisement for PLTR.
Your solution seems inferior to bootcamps they are running. Using their software on a fictional company might be interesting, but its far more interesting to have it done on your company with your data with experts helping you.
Jobs point applies more to the public and layperson, not companies looking to solve their complex problems. If PLTR cant keep up with demand they must be doing something right.
Good analysis and you definitely give good reason to be hesitant on Palantir, and you’re right that the best product doesn’t always win. Devil’s advocate response: AI is a different animal. I think Karp is right in that companies will pay for the best product. We’re seeing that with Nvidia. There is a mindset that if you don’t have the best AI, your AI will get beat and you’ll be in danger of falling behind and becoming obsolete. Not getting the best product increases your risk of that happening.
Definitely can understand that argument. I'm not convinced but it's a solid viewpoint. We'll have to wait and see which way it shakes out.
I’m not confident enough in Palantir to make it a core position, but like the risk/reward profile for a small stake. We’ll probably start to get an idea of what way it will shake out after the upcoming earnings call. I see the stock either skyrocketing or plummeting after reporting.
Wow, your suggestions for PLTR are amazing. That would make them unstoppable.
I think so too!
You are so much better than MeetKevin, or Jeremy. You seem to always bring me a perspective worth thinking about, and I rarely feel you are trying to sell me anything, such as a "class" or an "expensive" membership. This is why I tend to want to watch your stuff, and seem to only skim theirs.
This video was only released a month ago, but has already aged like blue cheese 😂😂😂😂
Glad to finally get your updated perspective.
Legitimate concerns. MSFT will be able to do 80% of what PLTR can do with a significant cost advantage and ease of deployment. PLTR will own the large-scale complex customer that still uses legacy IT systems, but for the majority of businesses, the AWS vendors will be able to offer a good solution. If anything, this will cause a more rapid conversion to an outsourced IT cloud infrastructure once companies see that this conversion comes with a solid AI-enabled data analysis solution baked into the product versus needing to spend millions and millions to deploy a more complex PLTR product. But again, I am not saying PLTR will not be viable = they will still be a good player for the large-scale legacy companies.
"The best technical product never wins". I can confirm that first hand after 20 years of experience in software in silicon valley and in Europe. If you focus primarily on the technology you forget about the customer's real needs they will always prefer inferior products with good marketing and you will lose.
one of the best (if not the best) analysis on Palantir, fully agree on how view its problems, the strengths in its product, and weaknesses, or to say lack of focus on the pricing side of things. Big respect for all these amazing videos, ganna spend time to watch them all and learrnnnnn!!!
Palantir should consider commoditizing some part of their technology that is more cookie cutter to a subset of their customer base. This is important for the company to scale.
Thanks for the Video helps me know more about PLTR. However, I see PLTR a little different view as you do w/t Karp's business pricing strategy. I do agree with his choice of keeping the service price high to maximize profits. PLTR has different products, different customers compared with other companies that have common every day products like AAPL or MSFT. I would invest in PLTR for a specific niche market.
You always earn a like. I have PLTR and Alex Karp is what swayed me to finally jump in. It's finally green and the long covered call I've been holding will expire worthless in Jan. You've given me something more to think about, whether I'll just sell another call and hold, or take the small profit and move on.
Alex Karp payed himself an insane of money to run palantir and he is the reason why you should not want it.
I have a rather large position in PLTR. Started buying at the DPO. I'll see where it's at in 5 years. Not worried about.
2024? No way... PLTR is just getting started, my friend.
Upcoming earnings for PLTR will give an important clue if new AIP strategy is working. I expect big, really big results from Palantir, and will be doubling my position before the next earnings report. I anticipate all of the questions presented here to be answered in 2024.
you made it, the result came in BIG
PLNR, one person shouldn't wear every hat, it's not always a good fit or look, great recommendations, I hope they at least consider it. Great stuff, I enjoy and learn so much from your show, thanks!
"Palantir shares rocket 30% after revenue beat, strong demand for AI".
I think you need to go onto Palantir weekly and discuss these with Arny. I feel there is counters to much of this. But it's valuable.
Always happy to chat with other investors
agree would be good to hear from all sides
Wish we still had code
Palantir has not really ever targeted the market of smaller business entities or to be a player in "retail" AI software (MSFT, etc) ...as they are geared towards mega enterprises and government operations. They already have partnerships with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN and are forming others, as they deem suitable for their future growth. I think PLTR will dominate the specific segment of AI they have targeted. PLTR will continue to be a long term hold for me (dca $10.5), just like my AMZN (dca $38.4; 334%) and APPL (dca $18.5; 939%) have been.
So true, it's not about the technology or tech team... it's all about the business side and those relationships. Speaking from my experience as an engineer and field application engineer in several silicon valley companies.
These are valid questions. I see last year as the Gold Rush era of AI. There's gold in those hills. Nvidia been raking it in since they own the picks and shovel. Everyone else is setting up shop at the base and trying to figure out how they'll make money/mine gold. This year will be crucial.
How would you update this video, after the release of Palantir's earnings yesterday? Are you going to post an update video?
Good one! Who is his daddy NOW!!!
Listen to the actual concerns I laid out in the video. They’re all still true.
@@TickerSymbolYOU You read something in my comment that wasn't actually there, either explicitly or implicitly. Read my question again and, think for a moment, and answer. You might consider posting a video explaining how Palantir succeeded despite the challenges brought on by its arrogance or how it succeeded despite nonstop negative press, promulgated by CNBC, Bloomberg, and their analysts who all share the same worldview. Just a thought.
This how Palantir always operated since day 1. Revenue and cash flow grew significantly. I really don’t understand why it is a no go now. PLTR grew in 2023, other big tech still recovering.
I noticed that the negative opinions here on youtube are stemming from sentiment rather than changing fundamentals. This video is an example. And to be honest, that sounds bullish for PLTR since it is not a busy trade and retail exposure seems low.
Been waiting for you to talk about palantir again, glad to have your insight
I am extremely proud of myself that I add a few thousand shares of Palantir recently. Palantir is a cash cow already with zero debt. US commercial sector grows 70 ％ YoY.
I remember when you basically did a similar video about NVidia, back then I thought you were legit, so I changed my mind and didn’t buy. And then it exploded.
yeah, if only I made 10+ videos talking about Nvidia being a good investment before and during that explosion.
@@TickerSymbolYOU More proof that your narratives just follow the stock prices. LOL
You comparing Apple hardware 20 years ago to SaaS and AIP today seems odd, not mention saying Microsoft and AWS are competitors. I don’t believe you really think C3ai is a Palantir competitor too, unless you’re on the short side of a trade and hoping your thesis will put downward pressure on the company stock, that never works for more than a day at best. I used to watch your videos and now I remember why I haven’t in a long time and if I remember correctly you’re a ARK fanboy. I find analysis weak when they seem to be emotionally invested in a person running a fund based off hype and not fundamentals. But that’s what makes a market.
Excellent analysis with some very valid questions asked! The Star Wars demo is brilliant and would love to see it come into fruition. Palantir have certainly grounded their confidence after a successful year, and I believe in them, but as you’ve stated there are absolutely some adjustments required in order to truly hit the ground running.
Great observation. Think I'll hit the ground at a fast walk !! Glad I limited my investment !
Can someone please send this video to Alex Carp!
the naivety of "we know the best product will win amazes me and means i am not investing in them.
Betamax was better than VHS - but VHS won.. .the best product does NOT automatically win
to win you need "good"/saleable products (not best), good marketing, good sales and good strategies... PLTR just throws all those out.
sad :(
Interesting arguments. My counter would be that Palantir makes AI solutions to beat the competition. So if they are their own client they will be trying to crush the opposition in their field. They let the others decide pricing and features to then beat them on features and price. My guess is their main problem in growing is hiring AI experts. You can only scale employee count so fast, if you want to stay EBITDA positive.
Hopefully you sold me your PLTR a month ago around $14. Thanks! Its worth almost $24 now!
I love all these comments that look at the thumbnail and don't watch the actual video 😂 I didn't sell at all
lol this video not gonna age well bad look bro a lot of rambling not a lot of facts
Excellent video and spot on. People that use AI know the issues with Palantir
I respectfully disagree. I purchased shares the day of the direct listing with the intent of holding at least 10 years. I only wish I had more money to purchase more shares.
Is pltr revenue growing? Yes
Is pltr profit growing? Yes
Is the number of clients growing? Yes
Is pltr ahead in their specific business? Yes
Is AI business growing? Yes, so even big competitors come, there is still room to grow for all the participants.
Are rates going down? Yes
Is liquidity surging? Yes
Rates down and liquidity up excellent for this type of stock independently of the growth/profit analysis.
Is pltr price overstreched? Yes
Can it consolidate? Yes
All in all i do not see pltr doomed at all.
If pltr is doomed then the 40% unprofitable stocks in the Russell 2000 are also doomed and investors are piling up on them now that Powell has fully pivoted.
Good luck to all investors
You pretty much pointed so many good things about the company, I like Alex Karp he’s a smart brave guy and I trust him to drive the company into prosperity
"Trust Palantir with their data". AI has a lot of potential to pressure Palantir; however, the "trust" factor and its ultra-high security clearance
are moats that Palantir will help them defend their position as they continue to develop and expand its AI applications and tools.
Very informative video and worth keeping a very close eye on.
Appreciate the technical research you did to make the video. Makes you more credible.
I honestly don’t think you have enough of a background to say Palantir is doomed, especially by next year.. Like you said, you barely scratched the surface of foundry, let alone AIP, or any of the vendors.
your overall game plan how PLTR can reach their full potential is brilliant, hope CEO Alex K to at least hear your voice!
I’ve been dollar cost averaging PLTR since 2020 from $11 up to $30’s down to $7 and back up to $20.
PLTR had a huge advantage. 50% of their sales are government so protected from recession. 18 years experience, consistent revenue growth, no debt, profitable, better price to earnings than other ai plays. I’ll be holding and buying PLTR for years to come. The absolute floor IMO for this stock is 150B so that’s 2 xto a bearish valuation long term. And lastly it doesn’t matter who wins the ai wars to PLTR. Any LLM come out on top and PLTR grows.
My 2 cents.
Lastly
So will you sell your PLTR positions and purchase AI Stock? Question: If any of the AI developments / Working models were show or asked how to make Forge work better would that AI program be able to make it better and not violate patents?
this headline aged well ...
thanks for the video, great research as usual.
Party on With The Retail Palantir People 🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️
Great Video Alex! Thank you! So cool that CodeStrap helped Introduce you to Palantir! 🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️
CodeStrap really is a legend
thanks Alex for your insights, its helps stay based on our expectations on the potential performance of the compagny, i will still keep my position for the two to tree upcoming years to see, as they just need couples of tweacks to make it
They literally develop custom software for companies via forward deployed engineers. How is that not meeting customers at their needs? That clip of Karp saying they have no monetization strategy is old now. Bootcamps are changing that. It’s proving to be a brilliant sales tactic. At least Snowflake thinks so. Steve Jobs is talking in more of a business to consumer context vs B to B I think. You do know they have been letting businesses use products for free right? That’s not gonna help their yr over yr growth. Don’t you understand their growth strategy? Nice video but now they are laying a foundation for future growth.
Great video, even if palantir went up so much, your arguments are still very valid, but I believe that what you have pointed out are not fatal weaknesses, when you have a solid product in hand, pricing strategy is really not the most difficult part.
According to Palantir’s latest quarterly report, which covers the period from October 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, its NDR by segments are as follows3:
US commercial: 150%
US government: 141%
International government: 161%
Total: 131%
Awesome Video! Great Work 🙂
Glad you liked it!
Product Market Fit for Enterprise / non B2C areas is a bit different than B2C. Steve Jobs does indeed make a great point about B2C products. For B2B the decision maker will look at the numbers and decide for the rest of the department or company what tool/software they will use. Palantir seems to have a head start when it comes to the value proposition for large enterprise / governments. Until Amazon or someone similar comes bragging that they are signing similar contracts to Palantir's NHS one, I think they will continue to seem to be ahead.
Congratulations Alex on the engagement 🎉 👏🏼
Thank you!!
Boot Camps solving many of these issues and making Palantir sticky.
I dont understand you praise foundry after using it.... but your last two videos you seem bearish on palantir. Am i reading this wrong ?
Nope! He had an NDA for the use of Foundry! He exited the deal while in compliance and let us know that it ain’t all sunshine like we thought! It cost nothing to pay attention!!!
great insights as usual, Alex - appreciate the effort sharing this "story" - as an investor, i grow unsure about PLTR.. they're not an AAPL, CEO needs to score more "trust" , and as a company i don't see that huge of an addressable market that can ensure growth and appreciation of their stock.. it's just a niche player.. so will always pass on them
Impressive video Alex! 😊
That was a good analysis. I’ve always thought you were way too product focused and not enough delivery focused. I learned a long time ago, at great monetary loss, that company success comes from a product that is:
Adequate
Well supported
Readily available
Most superior products fail! Betamax!
This video is not aging well...
It hasn’t aged at all yet.
@TickerSymbolYOU it's ok cramer keep giving out suggestions
Haters gonna hate LMAO , PLTR is going to make people a lot of money, ignore this take its bogus and just wants to promote his sponsors . This is all old news
10 trillion market cap by 2040.
Have you done any research on PLTR other than watching RUclips videos?
@@BrettWordon yes, and it’s going to the moon
I'll agree with you on that@@user-ys8dc2ni8z .Just look at all their , multi miilion dollar contracts this year alone.
Your videos are very informative and your video animation and editing is extremely engaging. Thanks
Great idea to build a Foundry version of Star Wars. It would be a great online multiplayer persistent world and suck in every company IT staffer to play it at home. Staff who would have to be told to “evaluate this for benefits to us,” will play themselves into obsessed Palantir salespeople. 🤩
Note: I’ve been in computers since 1970. Every consultant group projects every conceivable market/trend will grow 40% per year. People only hire consultants to hear good news and 40% is a bankable number. Karp is right-by ignoring the 40% targets he can organically flow into the 12,000% opportunity.
Great report!
You just may be glad that I sold my Palantir stock. Great job
It seems that Alex Karp is not that ambitious in making as much money as Palantir could make, and this is a bad thing especially for the stock owners of Palantir. Palantir as a company will do just fine. But their business side.....Nvidia is a greed greed company. And we all know how big it will become.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a crypto market for just few months and now they are millionaires , all thanks to Mrs Moraine, God bless you madam 😇
How about UIPath?
Have you changed your opinion after Palantir introduced AIP and brought in a lot more commercial customers?
Hey bud, what you do think about forge for investing in private conpanies?
As of today, this video didn’t age well. .in just four weeks. Of course the verdict is an on-going thing but dude. .
Like I said in the video, Palantir has the best AI software in the world. That’s not the point of this video and the most recent earnings call doesn’t invalidate anything I said. The price is just higher.
This guy has puts on PLTR. He's been wrong on a few stocks i know of so do your own DD. PLTR is going to be a beast.
I don’t have puts on PLTR for the record. I would definitely have to disclose that if I did.
Doubt it. He is just like the rest of the analysts. The narratives follow the stock price. Talk shit about the stocks when the prices are down. Kiss the CEOs' ass when the stocks are at the top. lol
the report says AI is supposed to be 1.1 trillion by 2032..... that is what we call the cart before the horse....
Wrong...
Great vid thank you! Ps The delete me looks fantastic thank you!
Lol. Go Palantir! This video should have been created after their last earnings, there was no disconnect at all.
Ive been saying your love of stocks that make no money for a year and half makes no sense. Why not follow Warren Buffet?
Nvidia and Microsoft make no money now? News to me.
Yeah Alex, you should really go hard into big oil. That's the true future...
This is a very good skeptical take on PLTR! In addition to the Star Wars idea (which might run into IP issues) there's also Eve Online, which has a complex data model, including a simulation of another world's economic system.
well they gained 30% today
I wonder if this person shorted the stock since the float is pretty huge.
Which is more promising as a defense tech startup? Palantir or Anduril
both good… by the way… palantir is heavily invested in anduril
The editing of your videos 😮
Karp should be hiring you!;-) I'm long PLTR but thanks for this video that brings some great insights.
9:20 that's such a perfect way to describe something like Slack versus MS Teams. When we switched over to Teams 2 years ago everyone universally hated it compared to slack, now we are still using it lol
Like I keep saying; Palantir has the best products. But the best products aren't always the winners.
@@TickerSymbolYOU in case of bullshit apps which anyone can make, i agree. But in AI, the product that will win is the one which unlocks the most value. The user interface and user friendliness doesn’t matter.