I grew up on the farm in the 60s - 70s. 530AM milking cows, farm work (chores field work, other animals, etc.) then the evening milking ending around 830 PM in winter a couple more hours working tobacco leaves till 1030 PM. No vacation (cows do not take time off). Equipment was not powerful, but plenty dangerous. My how times have changed. Many people have video games running all day long (while supposedly working). Robot - Food preparation comes with liability. McDonalds per se. Sky is the limit if this thing can learn by watching video.
From video is not same as by watching video. They are talking about video they create with all sensor data and correct cameras. I don't know why so many people which should know something about AI make this mistake (it is not to you, but so many "youtubers" )
From the perspective of an old guy, it's hard to put myself into the mind of a young person. I've only done gaming once back in 1995. I couldn't believe how it caught on. I still go to the shop & make things on the lathe, sometimes designed by myself. And do many outdoor activities. That being said, the bot really has my interest. I could be free to do all the household chores I hate, for the exception of cooking, which I really enjoy. I could go on a rant about cooking, but to sum it up it's a thing a person can do to make very interesting and high quality meals in any ethnicity you chose. As of late I've really been into Thai with all the amazing flavors it offers. The hard part is finding the proper ingredients.
Keep updating us. Thanks. On a lighter note, our son has robotic cleaners in his home. So, one day while it was cleaning, it went into a wet area and screeched… wet something or other. And I actually responded verbally. I was talking to a robot!! I chuckled to myself. Yes, there was a similar comment about hating housework…. I feel you and i am the same. Having said that, i find cooking therapeutic. I suppose i will need to work side by side with the robot. 😊
My suggestion would be that, if you guys have more to say on a topic, you should extend the podcast. It's not like RUclips has broadcast slots that you need to stick to... just keep rolling and hash it out
The added efficiencies of ai might be seen as deflation which makes things cheaper, which makes any human’s service proportionally more remunerative since a quantity of money buys more than it previously could
Robots will augment our work and replace work in only specific rote tasks. An Optimus could: clean the dishes, cut the grass, vacuum the floors, clean the bathroom, eash the windows, play chess with me - at my level so i can win 50% of the time 😊. Then there is social benefit workers- forest fire robots, reforestation robots, remove invasive plants, capture crop pests. Build houses, plant maintain gardens, flowers, vegetables. Fix pot holes in roads, maintenance of power grid, so many tasks we neglect until it becomes a problem.
... three comments: 1) funding will come from universal basic income; 2) work will not be eliminated, only toil will be eliminated ... people will be free to pursue their avocation ... and earn additional income; 3) driving to work is part of the economy ... purchase of automobiles, gasoline, breakfast, the morning paper, radio advertisements, books on tape, etc ...
Thanks for this update and discussion. On Optimus, I'm not sure how the developer concept would work for new skills. As the robot can learn, couldn't a good sushi chef just "teach" the robot by allowing it to just watch him make sushi?
So far it took a robot car watching over a million videos to teach it to drive in Version 12… so just have your bot watch a chef create sushi a million times!? No, but maybe an app developer company could handle that task learning and sell it to the bot market profitably.
Sam, I think it's maybe worth breaking down how disruptive the AI/Robotics developments will be to employment between the short/Medium term and the Medium/Long term. I agree that ultimately employment will catch up, but with the speed with which this is moving, I can't see how some very basic jobs like drivers and warehouse pickers will all be able to retool to something useful, at the same time that accountants and call center workers are also looking for work because their jobs have disappeared. These AI developments are such an across the board movement, I think the short term is going to be crisis mode with long term leaps to our wellbeing and employment. That's my take anyway.
18:09 I don't see how it would work "skill app", because with end to end system, where this app would be? How it would work? It would required retrening to learn it. It could use new recipe if it could cook, but it would not be what you said. And even thinking to using at home... what a waste of it, it is worth a lot more in factory, yes, it will end in homes, but first put value on what is closer, and replacing 80% of factory workers would be great, but as you said with robotaxi, when you lower cost, it create more opportunity.
I asked the question regarding Tesla Bot in the Ark Q&A following the FAV conference… again, is Ark building in Tesla Bot and AGI into its valuation of Tesla for ARKK?
Robot in the home is a crazy idea. Stacking burgers in McDonalds, sorting recycling garbage, last mile delivery. Tesla could charge $30k upfront then 3k per month licence fee.
yeah, they talking about robots in home, when is not even close, when they ignoring robots in factories, but maybe it is easier for them to imagine it, even is far from today? But is something I would not prefer from people which are building models, they should not behave as common people.
I'm with Andrew... If no one has any income, then there won't be "consumers" to fund or drive the direction of projects and products. UBI or some other alternative will be the only ability to close the economic loop.
Increased productivity does not lead to fewer working hours until the critical mass of people in the workforce are not willing to work 40 hour work weeks. Check out 1943 James Martial Lapeyre shrimp peeling machine, and John Maynard Keynes’s 15 hour work week from 1930.
Once we have AGI, all human jobs are gone. By definition AGI can do every job better than a human, so there will be a strong economic incentive to replace humans everywhere. There might be special cases where we will want a human in the loop despite the inefficiency they introduce, but it's going to be much more rare than people think. Without AGI there will be human jobs, but only for the most talented ones. AI can already do many jobs, that doesn't require high skills, and Tesla's latest Optimus demo shows that manual labor isn't safe either. Combined with ChatGPTs new multimodal capability it will soon be able to do a lot of manual tasks, even complex ones. Likely dexterity will be the limiting factor, but not for long.
Excellent... keep brainstorming! Fascinated by the discussion of The Bot, especially. Are you open to looking at some of the brainstorming I've done (alone) on the potential role and training opportunity for The Bot as part of the Tesla Robotaxi model? I've done a whole series of videos which could/should stimulate some interesting conversation at your end. Let me know via comment. SoCalFreddy
19:42: "Are you arguing that people aren't going to have jobs because of automation?" Automation by definition means a job you no longer need to do. And automation in the limit means there won't be any job, at all. 19:51: "I think that is a highly unlikely outcome given human ingenuity and the history of the labor markets." Using the history of the labor markets with robotic automation is the wrong model to forecast the future with AI automation. Automation in the past with robotics is the automation of motion (skeleton & muscle). Automation in the future with AI/AGI/ASI/etc is the automation of thought (brain). Although both robot and AI are automation, the roles in jobs they fulfill are distinctly different. The Venn diagram of all remaining jobs is inversely related to the union of robot & AI, AGI, ASI, and beyond in a free market. 22:28: "I think history of automation is you take labor that's not captured by the economy and you bring it into the real paid economy." The technology that makes unpaid labor into paid labor possible will naturally be applied to all aspects of labor since the underlying technology is the same.
These are great. You can look to history as something of an analogue to what will come. The Great Depression was to a large degree the culmination of rapid technological advancement. This time the technological shift is going to be even more rapid and far-reaching. Things just take time and planning to recover.
Most of the great depression was caused by the same thing that causes the 2008 crash....greed and speculation with other people's money and no regulations, and a republican president that was a moron and made it far worse by sticking his head in the sand. God bless FDR. Our greatest President by far.
legislation usually is put in place once some damage is already seen The fear in this case is will the job market and labor force adapt and evolve fast enough? My sense is no
If a bot can learn from watching, what's the big deal about having the bot watch me do it & then it does it! Right? I think the bot's going to blow up the market! YAY !!!
20:55 I know is political incorrect to say that people lose jobs, but this will be reality. People which saying otherwise, they basing on past like industrial revolution or computers, but they forgetting one important thing, each time skill level go up, education was created not because countries wants educate people, they was created to allow people works in new industries, where you must read for example instruction. When when you work at farm, you could not read and it was no problem. And education didn't change with computers, but how many people have problem with simple formula in excel? And they learn from others. But what it mean when you rise level again? And do you forget that industrial revolution wasn't nice for people, and they destroyed machines because they take they job. As coal miners was said to them, that they will find new job, how it end? That most didn't. But we must remember that to sell product someone must buy it, and to buy it, he/she must have money from somewhere. But this migration to robots will not be nice as many would wants.
Automate away as much toil and drudgery as possible. Let life be a quest for fulfillment and awe. I'm hopeful we can eliminate most material scarcity for all humans, and then turn our efforts toward curing disease and aging.
The service quoted like driving it will not be performed by humans and therefore can not be counted as a service where a human us involved. We are going to a different era . Today in every service a human is involved, We can't compare today's services with future services where humans aren't involved.
I think artificial intelligence’s leaning capacity should be kept at a controllable level…. Giving AI the ability to learn and advance at its own levels could possibly lead to humanity’s great downfall and demise eventually…. However, I hope the rise of AI could help make easier without the negative outcomes for us all…
people have their habits. and once developed they‘ll stick with them. a change of habits will require the ok of some kind of authority. or the necessities of something very important. like the workplace, or health, or so.
What if 1 of them thinks it's a survival game and can't be stopped I think people are not thinking about multiple outcomes of self walking and thinking
If they could think... they aren't as humans, they learn, but it is on servers and takes hours, not as human on fly, so with today technology I would not afraid this. I would more afraid people which lose they job.
Eyeballs. eyeballs, eyeballs. The number of people on earth (decreasing) that have time on their hand (increasing) still only have available up to ~24 hours a day. This is the upper limit of what is possible to fill up with services, games and activities. Even if AI and robots will do all the work, including developing new robots and AI as well as maintaining all biology-based entities, that hard limit is still there. Now add reality and time to get there, and you may have some useful numbers. That's assuming we don't kill our species or waste even more time and resources on wars and other civilization ending crap. History seems to indicate the odds of that is not stacked in our favor...
I grew up on the farm in the 60s - 70s. 530AM milking cows, farm work (chores field work, other animals, etc.) then the evening milking ending around 830 PM in winter a couple more hours working tobacco leaves till 1030 PM. No vacation (cows do not take time off). Equipment was not powerful, but plenty dangerous. My how times have changed. Many people have video games running all day long (while supposedly working).
Robot - Food preparation comes with liability. McDonalds per se. Sky is the limit if this thing can learn by watching video.
From video is not same as by watching video. They are talking about video they create with all sensor data and correct cameras. I don't know why so many people which should know something about AI make this mistake (it is not to you, but so many "youtubers" )
From the perspective of an old guy, it's hard to put myself into the mind of a young person. I've only done gaming once back in 1995. I couldn't believe how it caught on. I still go to the shop & make things on the lathe, sometimes designed by myself. And do many outdoor activities. That being said, the bot really has my interest. I could be free to do all the household chores I hate, for the exception of cooking, which I really enjoy. I could go on a rant about cooking, but to sum it up it's a thing a person can do to make very interesting and high quality meals in any ethnicity you chose. As of late I've really been into Thai with all the amazing flavors it offers. The hard part is finding the proper ingredients.
Keep updating us. Thanks.
On a lighter note, our son has robotic cleaners in his home. So, one day while it was cleaning, it went into a wet area and screeched… wet something or other. And I actually responded verbally. I was talking to a robot!! I chuckled to myself.
Yes, there was a similar comment about hating housework…. I feel you and i am the same. Having said that, i find cooking therapeutic. I suppose i will need to work side by side with the robot. 😊
Please discuss this more. I feel like it was only getting started, and it is an issue that needs to be dived into deeply.
My suggestion would be that, if you guys have more to say on a topic, you should extend the podcast. It's not like RUclips has broadcast slots that you need to stick to... just keep rolling and hash it out
The added efficiencies of ai might be seen as deflation which makes things cheaper, which makes any human’s service proportionally more remunerative since a quantity of money buys more than it previously could
Robots will augment our work and replace work in only specific rote tasks. An Optimus could: clean the dishes, cut the grass, vacuum the floors, clean the bathroom, eash the windows, play chess with me - at my level so i can win 50% of the time 😊. Then there is social benefit workers- forest fire robots, reforestation robots, remove invasive plants, capture crop pests. Build houses, plant maintain gardens, flowers, vegetables. Fix pot holes in roads, maintenance of power grid, so many tasks we neglect until it becomes a problem.
... three comments: 1) funding will come from universal basic income; 2) work will not be eliminated, only toil will be eliminated ... people will be free to pursue their avocation ... and earn additional income; 3) driving to work is part of the economy ... purchase of automobiles, gasoline, breakfast, the morning paper, radio advertisements, books on tape, etc ...
Thanks for this update and discussion. On Optimus, I'm not sure how the developer concept would work for new skills. As the robot can learn, couldn't a good sushi chef just "teach" the robot by allowing it to just watch him make sushi?
The robot itself can't learn, you need a huge supercomputer for that.
So far it took a robot car watching over a million videos to teach it to drive in Version 12… so just have your bot watch a chef create sushi a million times!? No, but maybe an app developer company could handle that task learning and sell it to the bot market profitably.
@@andrasbiro3007yes it will be able to learn.
@@MashDaddy
Maybe some fine-tuning of existing skills, but anything major requires a supercomputer.
Sam, I think it's maybe worth breaking down how disruptive the AI/Robotics developments will be to employment between the short/Medium term and the Medium/Long term. I agree that ultimately employment will catch up, but with the speed with which this is moving, I can't see how some very basic jobs like drivers and warehouse pickers will all be able to retool to something useful, at the same time that accountants and call center workers are also looking for work because their jobs have disappeared. These AI developments are such an across the board movement, I think the short term is going to be crisis mode with long term leaps to our wellbeing and employment. That's my take anyway.
18:09 I don't see how it would work "skill app", because with end to end system, where this app would be? How it would work? It would required retrening to learn it. It could use new recipe if it could cook, but it would not be what you said.
And even thinking to using at home... what a waste of it, it is worth a lot more in factory, yes, it will end in homes, but first put value on what is closer, and replacing 80% of factory workers would be great, but as you said with robotaxi, when you lower cost, it create more opportunity.
Every Amazon/UPS/USPS/Fedex delivery guy could have a robot to help deliver to door, then eventually replace the delivery fleet..
I asked the question regarding Tesla Bot in the Ark Q&A following the FAV conference… again, is Ark building in Tesla Bot and AGI into its valuation of Tesla for ARKK?
Don’t forget Optimus can be used for 24/7 security , guarding different positions on military posts , guarding homes , forests planters so forth
Guarding rare Cacti in the southwest
Robot in the home is a crazy idea.
Stacking burgers in McDonalds, sorting recycling garbage, last mile delivery.
Tesla could charge $30k upfront then 3k per month licence fee.
yeah, they talking about robots in home, when is not even close, when they ignoring robots in factories, but maybe it is easier for them to imagine it, even is far from today? But is something I would not prefer from people which are building models, they should not behave as common people.
I'm with Andrew... If no one has any income, then there won't be "consumers" to fund or drive the direction of projects and products.
UBI or some other alternative will be the only ability to close the economic loop.
Increased productivity does not lead to fewer working hours until the critical mass of people in the workforce are not willing to work 40 hour work weeks. Check out 1943 James Martial Lapeyre shrimp peeling machine, and John Maynard Keynes’s 15 hour work week from 1930.
Once we have AGI, all human jobs are gone. By definition AGI can do every job better than a human, so there will be a strong economic incentive to replace humans everywhere. There might be special cases where we will want a human in the loop despite the inefficiency they introduce, but it's going to be much more rare than people think.
Without AGI there will be human jobs, but only for the most talented ones. AI can already do many jobs, that doesn't require high skills, and Tesla's latest Optimus demo shows that manual labor isn't safe either. Combined with ChatGPTs new multimodal capability it will soon be able to do a lot of manual tasks, even complex ones. Likely dexterity will be the limiting factor, but not for long.
What are Andrew's social media?
Excellent... keep brainstorming! Fascinated by the discussion of The Bot, especially. Are you open to looking at some of the brainstorming I've done (alone) on the potential role and training opportunity for The Bot as part of the Tesla Robotaxi model? I've done a whole series of videos which could/should stimulate some interesting conversation at your end. Let me know via comment. SoCalFreddy
19:42: "Are you arguing that people aren't going to have jobs because of automation?"
Automation by definition means a job you no longer need to do.
And automation in the limit means there won't be any job, at all.
19:51: "I think that is a highly unlikely outcome given human ingenuity and the history of the labor markets."
Using the history of the labor markets with robotic automation is the wrong model to forecast the future with AI automation.
Automation in the past with robotics is the automation of motion (skeleton & muscle).
Automation in the future with AI/AGI/ASI/etc is the automation of thought (brain).
Although both robot and AI are automation, the roles in jobs they fulfill are distinctly different.
The Venn diagram of all remaining jobs is inversely related to the union of robot & AI, AGI, ASI, and beyond in a free market.
22:28: "I think history of automation is you take labor that's not captured by the economy and you bring it into the real paid economy."
The technology that makes unpaid labor into paid labor possible will naturally be applied to all aspects of labor since the underlying technology is the same.
Can we put some of these stocks if they go public into ARKX? Would be a great addition to the fund.
These are great. You can look to history as something of an analogue to what will come. The Great Depression was to a large degree the culmination of rapid technological advancement. This time the technological shift is going to be even more rapid and far-reaching. Things just take time and planning to recover.
Most of the great depression was caused by the same thing that causes the 2008 crash....greed and speculation with other people's money and no regulations, and a republican president that was a moron and made it far worse by sticking his head in the sand. God bless FDR. Our greatest President by far.
typo on slide
legislation usually is put in place once some damage is already seen
The fear in this case is will the job market and labor force adapt and evolve fast enough? My sense is no
More Tasha, please. Thanks dudes.
Will individuals start to get involved in robotic ownership consortiums? A robotic labor investment pool.
If a bot can learn from watching, what's the big deal about having the bot watch me do it & then it does it! Right? I think the bot's going to blow up the market! YAY !!!
Yes, exactly correct, you will be able to teach the robot how to perform a task, the way you like it done.
20:55 I know is political incorrect to say that people lose jobs, but this will be reality. People which saying otherwise, they basing on past like industrial revolution or computers, but they forgetting one important thing, each time skill level go up, education was created not because countries wants educate people, they was created to allow people works in new industries, where you must read for example instruction. When when you work at farm, you could not read and it was no problem. And education didn't change with computers, but how many people have problem with simple formula in excel? And they learn from others.
But what it mean when you rise level again? And do you forget that industrial revolution wasn't nice for people, and they destroyed machines because they take they job. As coal miners was said to them, that they will find new job, how it end? That most didn't. But we must remember that to sell product someone must buy it, and to buy it, he/she must have money from somewhere. But this migration to robots will not be nice as many would wants.
90% of the US population were farmers in the 1800s. Today about 1% of the population is a farmer. Is 90% of the US population unemployed today?
Automate away as much toil and drudgery as possible. Let life be a quest for fulfillment and awe. I'm hopeful we can eliminate most material scarcity for all humans, and then turn our efforts toward curing disease and aging.
The service quoted like driving it will not be performed by humans and therefore can not be counted as a service where a human us involved. We are going to a different era . Today in every service a human is involved, We can't compare today's services with future services where humans aren't involved.
I think artificial intelligence’s leaning capacity should be kept at a controllable level…. Giving AI the ability to learn and advance at its own levels could possibly lead to humanity’s great downfall and demise eventually…. However, I hope the rise of AI could help make easier without the negative outcomes for us all…
people have their habits. and once developed they‘ll stick with them. a change of habits will require the ok of some kind of authority. or the necessities of something very important. like the workplace, or health, or so.
We would be defensive against it bc they can satellite shift
What if 1 of them thinks it's a survival game and can't be stopped I think people are not thinking about multiple outcomes of self walking and thinking
If they could think... they aren't as humans, they learn, but it is on servers and takes hours, not as human on fly, so with today technology I would not afraid this. I would more afraid people which lose they job.
Eyeballs. eyeballs, eyeballs. The number of people on earth (decreasing) that have time on their hand (increasing) still only have available up to ~24 hours a day. This is the upper limit of what is possible to fill up with services, games and activities. Even if AI and robots will do all the work, including developing new robots and AI as well as maintaining all biology-based entities, that hard limit is still there. Now add reality and time to get there, and you may have some useful numbers. That's assuming we don't kill our species or waste even more time and resources on wars and other civilization ending crap. History seems to indicate the odds of that is not stacked in our favor...
What about ai hacking on the people
Musk will have his own bot army delivered by self driving armor clad trucks and rockets.
People will get the Universal Basic income
College professors will start forcing students to do oral exams to offset chatgpt.
They would never make a 2x better game. They dont even make 1x games anymore