Big Cat is HEATED with Will Compton over Analytics Debate, "YOU'RE SO DUMB!"
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- Опубликовано: 25 янв 2024
- Big Cat and Will Compton preview the 2023 NFL Season's Conference Championship Picks with Kayce Smith. The Pro Football Football Show Conference Championship Picks: Presented by Chevy Silverado
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The thing that doesn’t make sense to me is that the Bucs 2 pt percentage was 40%…so doesn’t that make it simple math that Big Cats stance is wrong based on his simple math? Why would you use the league average…? Different offense, different chances…
That's what I said !! Certain teams are not built for 2pt plays. Bucs are not that good down on that side of the field. Also, it felt like a momentum change when they didn't get it.
It also factors in PAT success which is not 100%
Using analytics to decide to go for it and then running a statistically improbable play is exactly willa arguement. He is saying you are doing math but not factoring all variables that make it a good or bad choice to go for it
That might be a reasonable argument but that was not wills argument lol
Team analytics typically factor that in
Exactly.
Big Cat is wrong on this. Missing that 2 pt sucked the life out of the Bucs offense. Killed the vibe and it’s positive vibes only
Oh fr? You were on the sidelines?
What analytics don’t take into account are a specific team’s talent, their redzone/goalline package, injuries, flow of the game, etc. I think that’s what Will is saying.
exactly. people think everyone has a 50% chance of converting the two point but in reality this is not the case for many teams when you take matchups into account
Oh Will is definitely right but bc won't allow it
Exactly what Will’s saying. Hard to argue that with people who’ve never been in the situation of playing in actual sporting event that means something
Kaycee’s got some great Knocks
Horny RUclips comments. I bet ur a CEO
Fresh milk 🤤
Have you seen the cakes?!? Chefs kiss.
Lmao
ruclips.net/video/ocH-aauM_wU/видео.htmlsi=00DVLQHzYXxSS8AD
I love how Big Cat acts like he’s the football guy when he’s talking to someone who’s actually played in the NFL lmao
You would def kick the extra point instead of go for 2
Crazy that a recent player would bring in the mentality of the team after missing the first 2 point conversion
Damn BigCats crazy annoying about the going for 2 shit. Bro just keeps calling Will stupid & dumb like relax w that. Analytics obviously make sense & have a place in football but I agree with Will too that vibes wise if you don't get it on the first one then there's SO much pressure if you score again to get that second 2 point conversion. Plus if you get two touchdowns and miss on both 2 pt conversions that coach is going to look like a fucking IDIOT. & I bet most of the player probably agree with Will on this one.
Kick the extra point. Go down the field , last drive knowing you have a chance to win versus having to convert two point just to tie.
Thats dumb. If you save going for two for just the 2nd touchdown you automatically lose if you dont get it ... If you go for two the 1st time you at least give yourself a chance to still tie it with a 2 point conversion on 2nd TD. So you still win if you get the 2 point conversion on 1st try AND can still tie it on next TD if you fail.
@@alessandroscuderi7300so in the end either you- have a chance to win or tie, or, win or lose and you would pick the ladder? Thats not even mentioning the vast difference in amount of pressure to tie a game with a 2 pt conversion.
"IT'S NOT ANALYTICS, IT'S SIMPLE MATH!!" someone please tell Big Cat what analytics are
Dude analytics by definition means it’s complex math
I think you need to look up the definition hoss
Tampa's redzone offense is 27th in the NFL
thats probably why they shouldnt go for 2
but you do gotta go off vibes in those situations
Gamblers like Big Cat see football the same as blackjack, dice or even a coin toss. That’s why analytics make so much sense to them
It's not analytics to go for 2 down 8.
exactly
The point of it is to win the game in regulation, not play for the tie. If your goal is to tie, then yes you kick the XP
@@tqt927what if they fail the first 2 point attempt? Then the team is put in a situation where they not only have to make a stop on defense but they then HAVE to make the next 2 pt attempt or they're left losing by 2 points and looking dumb as hell. I understand analytics say 2 pt attempts are successful 50% of the time but lets not act like what Big Cat is saying is the right thing to do every time the opportunity presents itself. If my team did what the Bucs did last week during a playoff game, I'd lose my shit
@@1neOfN0ne the thing is that it’s for specifically winning in regulation because of the wonky OT rules. Though I will say I wonder if that’s still the case because they changed OT playoff rules so that both teams get a possession, you can’t get screwed out of not having the ball in OT, I wonder if that changes the formula because teams would be more willing to go to OT
Lmao Will hates numbers because they hated him when he was learning simple math in gradeschool
WIll is right. If going for 2 is sooooooo great, why don't teams do it every time??
Big Cat lowkey never wrong. Not the easiest guy to have a debate with.
Plenty of teams did when they were up 3 this year
Did you even watch the video? That’s not the argument lol
@@paulconaty2538 You didn't watch the video. Say it with your chest next time, don't add the "lol" coward.
@@cpm4778 oooooooo big tough guy! The conversation was all about when and why you go for it in that situation. It’s okay man. Just watch the video
@@paulconaty2538 they both have valid points but the way big cat argues like a weasel in order to never be wrong is outrageous. You sir are an idiot. Don’t tell anyone they should do anything.
Big Cat says its simple math like that is the only determining factor in football lol. Will played the game and understands how it all works but he's being told by people who have never played that he is wrong, and that math is the answer to winning a game, not the players or coaches or weather or any other factor that actually mean something in the game. Big Cat is one of my favorite guys at barstool, but he is dead wrong. Glad you stood your ground Will.
Big Cat is so incorrect and I hate how right he thinks he is
Dan saying it’s not analytics then bringing up percentages and chance of success sums up his twisted brain perfectly
I freaking love the shows today! 💯👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
more KC less you idiots
Here is an analytic that Big Cat is not taken into consideration. 48.2% of 2pt conversion were successful. That means the majority of the time, a team will fail on a 2pt conversion. You have better odds of calling head or tails on a coin toss than a team converting a 2pt conversion. The play matters a lot because pass plays success rate is 43.4% out of 739 attempts. Run plays have a 61.7% success rate out of 258 attempts.
Why are you speak about 48.2% as if it was 10%? lmao.
I’d give Big Cat 1 million $ if he could explain how he got to this answer… he clearly doesn’t understand the math and is just parroting someone else’s thinking.
BC calling Will dumb in this scenario is wild. He himself doesn’t actually understand the math 😂
Imagine playing 10 years in the NFL and a theater kid from Newton, Mass is lecturing you on football strategy because he watches it on the couch 10 hours a day.
Dumb comment. As if major coaches and analysts at the highest level don't agree.
Kacey’s front porch looking refinished
Absolutely
ruclips.net/video/ocH-aauM_wU/видео.htmlsi=00DVLQHzYXxSS8AD
I back Will a little. Just glad my team won. Go Chiefs
I agree with Will. Because you missed the 2point now you NEED another 2point conversion just to tie, if you want to win. Put your balls on the table on the last play TD, don't put yourself in a position to chase
you're chasing regadless, lmao. Who the fuck would go for 2 down by 7 meaning if you don't get it, you lose the game? Some of you don't get it.
If I'm down 14 and I make the 2 point play, now I can win the game outright. If I don't make it, I'm still in a position where I can prevent myself of losing the game. This last scenario is the exact one I would be by kicking 2 extra points (That can also be missed by the way).
The game is already lost, why would I go for a route that doesn't give me a chance to win it BEFORE OT
In Will’s best case scenario you go to overtime. In Big Cat’s best case scenario you win. There’s a bigger chance of losing outright for Big Cat, but also the higher chance of winning outweighs that. Big Cat’s strategy is higher risk but the reward (statistically) outweighs the risk.
I think you missed the entire argument
You clearly didn't watch the fucking vid idiot. Will said you wait for the 2nd TD if you want to be that aggressive and win it there.
Big cat is just a robot of regugertated bits/takes these days. Sad to see
“People who don’t understand football, analyse with stats”
Pressure, momentum, stakes, individual teams (not whole league), timing of the game eg. going for two when fresh vs going for two last play of the game. All not accounted for with season wide stats across a whole league of teams, which say it’s 50/50. And they matter.
Great rack
ruclips.net/video/ocH-aauM_wU/видео.htmlsi=00DVLQHzYXxSS8AD
what if u dont get the second 2 pt attempt BC??? lots of pressure to play with
god Big Cat preaching this shit to a person who was in the NFL for 10 years is unbelievably annoying
Doesn’t mean will is right
Big Cat is 100% right here. Its not about who played in NFL.
@@Dong-ChanLee exactly. It makes 0 sense.... you can go for two on the second touchdown to win? Im confused?
@@Dong-ChanLee Being down 8 instead of 7 should not have been discouraging. Its still 1 score.
Was it 10 years? I’m not so sure a year 10 took place.
It's six one way, a half dozen the other. Also, if the other team knows an extra point can now beat them it will change that team's defensive strategy.
Converting a 2 pt conversion is literally never a 50-50 shot first of all
Kayce with the blue and the eyes 👍🏼
Ask Brandon Staley. He was an analytics coach. Emphasis on WAS
I think what 'analytics' doesn't really take into account a certain teams specific talent for such plays. Is your FG kicker good? Is your offensive line beat up to get a 1 yd gain on 4th down. There are so many variables, and alot of depends on situational substitutions.
Dan is just another guy who yells insults and feels like that makes his point..it doesnt
I agree with Will, football is not a quarter
Big cat is 100% right in this situation
Give you the chance to go to OT with tons of momentum, how does big cat not consider that at all
Defense and team is pumped if u spot a 2 point conversion
The dumb momentum thing is already baked into the percentages.
A failed two-point try does drop momentum, just as a successful one sends momentum through the roof. I've been on both sides.
The 2-point conversation was about 17 minutes longer than it should have been. 🤮
“He’s on the bus that’s so cool” Go Ravens 💜🖤
17:56 to skip past the filler
Not saying Will is right or wrong, but it is wild that Big Cat could not understand Will’s point. But it does make sense considering Big Cat didn’t play sports. Not an athlete
If Todd Bowles is doing it you know the NFL as a whole in on this strategy. That man is the most risk averse coach in the game.
That caption is not a sentence/coherenr 😂
17:45 It's funny BC thinks this was scripted. Amon-Ra said on his podcast it was a mistake and wrong personnel. D'Mo was supposed to be in for that play.
what a show
People are siding with Will??? He is so wrong
Score 13 and take the two if the opportunity is to win is there.
Will said “and IF” you wanna go for 2 as a cherry on top to why he’s right
Going for 2 there also highly increases your odds of LOSING the game by not getting it
Great point
what a damn rack !!!!!!!!!
I 100% agree with Compton on this take
them going for 2 was incredibly stupid
I think Will is either not understanding the math on purpose, or he's just too dumb to even be capable of understanding the math. Looks like the game is going to just pass him by.
I agree with will momentum is a thing failed 2 point conversion hurts the momentum of the td. The teams strengths matter, different if the ravens go for 2 with Lamar than the bucs, have to look at the individual teams chances of going for 2
Big cat talking like he can fight
why does nobody take into account that it was a playoff game, if it doesn't work you are OUT - i understand it in the regular season, worst thing that can happen you lose a game you'd probably lose anyway. in the playoffs i figure you'd rather take OT than L
I'm in Will's boat
This reminds me of that yaurel and yanni thing
You can tell who played ball and who watched ball
No Nicky? I still clicky
Tf are they talking about nick Bolton being hurt
It's this simple.
50% chance it works favorably (Make 1st XP 2nd)
25% chance it works unfavorably (Miss both)
25% chance you break even (Miss 1st Make 2nd)
No, that's not true at all. You have to factor in the teams and the offense and Defense. Alot of teams struggled in short yardage redzone this year. How many teams can't get in with 3 chances.
@@andrewlee1573 Of course what I said is just a little bit oversimplified. However, historical leaguewide 2 pt conversion rates are about 47.5%. Even if you believe your team will convert at only a 40% success rate and assuming a 100% extra point conversion rate it breaks out like this:
40% chance it works favorably
36% chance it works unfavorably
24% chance break even which means it is STILL in your favor to go for 2
Go Birds !
Big Cat wrong on this
If it was smart to go for two, they would do it every time
Hey big cat congratulations on your ravens bet
Big cat wtf are you talking about you kick the ball
I'm on wills side I hate the analytics even if it shows out to be true
Why are you so rude to Brooke? I literally don’t understand.
I love Dan but I'm not sure he's 100% right. Will might be?
Kayce a 10/10
The Boy got hit in the head a few too many times to understand the going for 2 argument
Never forget Jerry said if the Ravens beat the Texans he would stop being a hater
Love bigcat but im taking Wills back in this. Numbers are definitely not king in situations like this
Will saying that they lost all the momentum in the failed conversation even thou they forced the punt and got the ball back is the dumbest thing I've heard
It did for the offense, they didn’t score again
I dont like going for 2 with a team like the Bucs. Certain teams like the Chiefs but not Baker.
Will hit it on the head with the ravens
My biggest fear would be arguing with big cat about anything.
What for? 😂
Big Cat is claiming to be the smart, math guy, when 2 point conversion attempts are under 50%.
Which throws this whole analytics thing out the window.
Also then critiques the play call on 2 pt attempt. What if the analytics said throw a fade BC??
These games are so easy... both No. 1's roll this weekend, and then the Ravens spank the 49ers again in two weeks. Lamar finally quiets the doubters.
Will is not dumb and didnt ever say peyton manning 2 to ryan leaf in the draft.
Wills right
Football isn’t a quarter
This is dumb. Imagine being down 14 and going for 2 twice and not getting it and losing. Big cat never mentions that all because a couple coaches started trying this method?
Will was right!
Just bc the math says that historically it makes sense doesn’t mean it always makes sense. Lib cat is a nerd Will is 100% right.
If a team is gonna let a missed 2 pt conversion ruin their momentum after a touchdown they were probably not gonna win anyway
Will 100% right. I hope big cat has to watch the bears do this and fail in a playoff game
I hate to do this but big cat is misunderstanding the maths regardless of wills beliefs. If something has a 50% chance of success and you fail the first time , then it doesn’t mean you are more likely to win the next time. If a coin lands on heads 10 times in a row it’s no more likely to land on tails the 11th time than the first. This is a common mistake when people misuse the term probability
Wil played the game, big cat only watches and doesn't when bets
Skip the first half
Chiefs vs Niners in a rematch, Patty Mahomes ends up winning his 3rd Super Bowl. Cementing his GOAT status even further…
You are so embarrassing wait Mahomes has 7 rings ???
Will is right
Can’t wait for a team to go for 2 up 6 and lose by 1 (hopefully in the playoffs) , analytics are overrated
Will is correct. Fair is fair. Will won.
Actually maybe big cat lost. Lots of put downs.