Why the Russian Air Industry is Kaput
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 11 июн 2024
- The Russian Air Industry keeps (or kept) on pushing new concepts and prototypes, but what do we find below the the public bling-bling? Join Chris as he talks to independent analyst Stanimir Dobrev on the state of the Russian air industry.
- Check out my books -
Ju 87 Stuka - stukabook.com
STG-44 Assault Platoon - sturmzug.com
German Panzer Company 1941 - www.hdv470-7.com/
- Support -
Patreon: / milavhistory
Channel Memberships: / @militaryaviationhistory
PayPal: www.paypal.me/MilAvHis
- Recommendations by Stanimir Dobrev -
Dobrev, Sanimir: Dwarfing the Giant: The Reality of Russia’s Military, Part I, 19th September 2018, international-review.org/dwar... (last accessed 05/11/2022).
Dobrev, Sanimir: Dwarfing the Giant: The Reality of Russia’s Military, Part II, 14th November 2018, international-review.org/dwar... (last accessed 05/11/2022).
General recommendation is to look at local and regional sources as the information contained there is 'less' filtered. These are in Russian:
Examples include:
vpk.name/
www.vedomosti.ru/
www.business-gazeta.ru/
www.kommersant.ru/
flotprom.ru/
mil.press/
novayagazeta.ru/
bmpd.livejournal.com/
baza.io/
63.ru/
- Social Media -
Twitter: / milavhistory
Instagram: / milaviationhistory
- Sources -
Stanimir Dobrev
Thumbnail:
Chkalov Novosibirsk Aviation Plant by Kremlin[dot]ru, wiki commons
- Timecodes -
00:00 - Intro
00:53 - State of Russian Air Industry
05:57 - Problems in producing aircraft
10:00 - What's the money (going)?
15:44 - Reliance on foreign imports
19:41 - Civilian/military air industry synergies?
24:30 - Recommendations
- Audio -
Music and Sfx from Epidemic Sound
Old Russian joke: day after day, year after year a man would leave his factory with wheelbarrow filled with rags and trash. The guards would inspect him everyday when he left but could never find anything valuable. On his last day before he retired the gaurd said to him "I know you were stealing but I could never catch you with anything. Tell me now, what were you stealing?"
The man replied "Wheelbarrows".
Golden! XD
Pretty sure that’s not just a russian joke.
@@elmanitasdeplomo If told in a Russian accent it is.
@@finallyfriday. ha, ha …ha
Brilliant :D
What's as loud as a chainsaw, belches smoke and uses a gallon of fuel to cut an apple in 3 pieces? A Russian machine designed to cut an apple into 4 pieces.
This didnt make any sense also smoke isnt loud smok can make sounds
@@Silver_Prussian You must have super human hearing, because I never heard smoke, flames sure, but smoke, never.
I heard this joke on tv series Chernobyl.
@@qRESCO That's right, lol, I may not have repeated it exactly like the mine foreman, but you get the gist.
@@scottkrater2131 did you edit your comment cuase it sure had a mistake in how the words were put together
One thing that was missed on the civilian side is the inconsistency of manufacturing spare parts and manufacturer support. It was one of the big problems with the Super Jet that stopped it from really ever existing outside of Russia.
exactly. Your design can be as fast and phenominal and cheap as possible, if you don't offer our company support we won't even bother with you. This is why every Linus tech tips megafan makes me roll my eyes when they wonder why in IT we don't just all use the newest computer that just came out. We rely on companies sending agents and replacements when things break, and they absolutely will.
The logistics and quality of the product support is just as important as the product t itself. Unfortunately airbus and Boeing doing this exceptionally well.
And the source for this is ?
@@Silver_Prussian Aero Mexico and CityJet Ireland ..
@@damienhill6383 and what do they say exactly
,,Uhhh russia need western technology" you know how many bullsh*t articles i habe seen ? None of the go in detail in what exactly the russian lack so much. They can make parts for their own planes the evidence for that is in the an124
I followed the whole process of dimitry rogozin beeing head of Roskosmos over the years.
If this is how most or all of russian ministers run their offices, then is`s a gigantic mess. He raised his own wages while quality control on the soyuz, proton and progress programs was failing and had significant failures. He was recently injured while playing "war hero" in ukraine. It`s insane.
he was celebrating his birthday and was shelled?
@@doughboyjr9418 well dont celebrate your birthday in a warzone then lmao.
Charitably Rogozin was diving to protect his wife when he took shrapnel in his backside.
@@jamescobban857 Huh…he doesn’t strike me as someone who cares about anyone, or anything but himself.
Soyuz and progress have been mainstays of the International Space Station - without them, no access to space station for anyone. Proton is being phased out. His great achievement is 98 launches without accident, so basically, no accidents since about 2018. That is not only a massive improvement on the constant accidents that were occurring before him, but it is actually the best performance of any space program in the world.
Something I read about some of the factories in the soviet union: instead of outright stealing money from the plant, which would be risky, the people in charge would have some workers produce other goods than what the factory was supposed to officially build. Those products would be sold on the black market and generate revenue for the officers in charge of the factory. I wonder if this is still happening today.
I guess that joke of stealing a sewing machine from an AK factory rings some truth
@@adamoconnor695 And that's why you want to replace it with good ol'fashion Russian corruption? 🤣🤣🤣👍
One of my close friends in Finland who traveled to Russia about 8 times per year had these amazing snow shovels at his summer cottage on the lake. The blades were made from Titanium-most expensive snow shovels ever built. They were from a Russian factory that made aluminum snow shovels, but the plant managers couldn’t get deliveries of the required aluminum, so they made some back-door deal with a Titanium plant making sheets of Titanium for aerospace/defense. They ran the Titanium sheets through the shovel blade dies and cranked out Titanium shovels to meet their state-mandated quotas. “Nyormala" as the Russians would say.
Yes I still do it in aeroflot...good move, I drive new BMW not Lada😂
Of course, they steal chips from washing machines in ukraine and building new ones with sheets of metal from aviation factory. And then they send them back via airmail.
Of all the "Russian Bear" analysts out there I like listening to Stanimir Dobrev the best because he at least brings a lot of information to the table that other people don't have because they don't have the required language skills, haven't done the research in low profile sources as he has, or (usually) both.
Why do I call Stanimir a "Russian Bear"? Because he's "bearish" on Russia. Get it? . . . OK, I'll leave quietly by the back now.
bad dum tss
You're being misled. He's not an analyst. He's a paid propagandist. Sad that this channel doesn't declare his affiliations.
@@jamesrowlands8971 What are his affiliations? Serious question. I've looked him up, checked his social media and he's a pretty standard "expert." Much more sober than most, even correcting writers making specious claims. So what affiliations make him a propagandist?
@@Humorless_Wokescold he's employed directly by the anti-Russian oligarch George Soros.
At the end of the interview Stanimir give his sources for this information, like any serious journalist, those who doubt him can check.
The Russian economy is too small to achieve their aerospace goals, even if they were competent.
US taxpayers pay twice the annual Russian GDP ( 1.6 trillion ) in sales taxes alone . we pay 3.2 trillion every year
@@BigDsGaming2022 That's because you're rich. The Canadian economy is bigger than that of Russia (and the gap is currently increasing) with the Canadian population 1/4 that of Russia. The Canadians offer all sort of services to their people that the Russians will never see outside of a couple of cities. They even live a full decade longer than the Third World Russians.
@@abrahamdozer6273 Canada even has toilets while over half of Ruzzia does not
@@BigDsGaming2022 Canada had toilets and a lot of other things long before most Europeans or British people did. My mother grew up on a farm that had in the 1920s, phone service (because the telephone was invented about 60 kilometers down the road from them) AC electricity (because Nicholas Tesla's first generating dam was about 30 kilometers from them) natural gas for central heating and cooking (because a pipeline ran right by the farm from the nearby gas fields) and running water along with the AC electricity. All of this 100 years ago on a farm in the country. When Canadian servicemen went to Britain and Europe during WWII, a lot of them were boggled by how backwards te British and Western Europeans were. They went from the modern North American world to thee "old" world. Russian was and still is the "old, old" world for the most part.
@@abrahamdozer6273 while I accept that North America had, in general, a technological head start on Western Europe in the early-to-mid 20th century, I do think your chosen example is extremely flawed - as you point out meticulously, it was only the case at that particular residence because they were situated just right. With Canada being such an enormous country, I expect that it would have taken quite a while for _most_ rural areas to have these sorts of facilities.
Lest we forget, the relatively recent problem with the demo flight of the commercial aircraft. The problem is endemic. You can't run an aerospace company with a Russian sense of humor. I've spent almost my whole career in aerospace, as a tech designer, granted. Making sure the engineering is done right, and the mistakes made are caught and fixed is everybody's responsibility. Not the bosses alone. Can't be otherwise.
What you say is true, but it is not the Russian way.
I Ruszian wurk in air manufacturers. It busses fault. I dunt giv fucker if plane clash..as long as I'm not on it😂
You are correct if the purpose of an aerospace business is to deliver aerospace products. I don't think this is the case in Russia.
I once discovered a major screw-up that someone else made and told my boss, whereupon he lit into me to fix it. I reminded him it was not my responsibility and I didn't cause the problem.....
He yelled at me even louder and said..."ANYTHING...let me repeat that because it's important...ANYTHING!, that causes problems for this company is your responsibility to fix!"
I spent the next two days fixing the problem, and spent the rest of my career there fixing any problem I could find! Then they laid me off when times got tough. Oh well.
@@jaykellett2327 Big Yellow Taxi: "Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you got 'til it's gone."
I worked in Independent Test for a software firm. The firm built a record for delivering trouble-free software. On the next contract, the customer asked the firm to reduce the bid. So what did the firm do? Cut Independent Test.
What happened?
Errors in delivered software skyrocketed. FYI it costs a helluva lot more and takes a helluva lot longer to fix problems in delivered software.
Interesting and frank conversation. I remember during the Gorbachev years that the civilian aircraft industry was one of the areas that they thought the Russian military industrial complex could turn into a competitive supplier to the west - either entire aircraft or components.
And it never happened, for now obvious reasons...
And China is still using Russian derived engines for their planes. The Soviet Union was great at a few things, and had a high point where they were going to space and making the fastest fighter jets in the world. However all of it was with great cost to everything else.
The irony of it is not that the Russian airforce use a consumer GPS, but there is a dude in a basment building his own 3D printed A10 cockpit with all the functions.
Seen any garmins in Su-35s?
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t i can't tell what aircraft it is from the cockpit view.
@Георгий Мурзич lol you tell us russian rat. Although if there's one thing I've learned from this war don't believe a single thing a Russian says its most likely a lie. You really like to embellish your strength only to show you're very weak so weak you have to cry if "Russia doesn't win the war well use nuclear weapons" 🤣 its just getting embarrassing I expected so much more from you.
I call it "building for propaganda" instead of "building for substance".
Chris, you've killed it last year with all the content, conference and books last year. And this year seems to go right on where last year finished. Thank you for all your hard work!
Thanks buddy!
@@MilitaryAviationHistory can I ask why you don't declare Stanimir's associations given they're highly pertinent to whether or not he should be taken at face value?
I agree. You're really turning into a goto powerhouse analyst. I'm very glad for you.
@@jamesrowlands8971 How come you keep repeating Stanimir is a paid puppet in multiple threads without even once presenting sources, or even specifying who you believe he is associated with?
@@johanmetreus1268 I have clearly stated who he is paid by, in multiple threads. I'm repeating myself, because the owner of this channel is being decietful by not presenting this important information about Stanimir's background.
To understand how the russian society works somebody has to understand the simple principle of "always doing the opposite you are told to do".
The president says: " There will be no mobilization" = Run for your life there will be a mobilization.
"Your jobs are safe" = Look for another job.
"We are experiencing some difficulties on the frontlines, but we will win" = We are loosing the war.
"This is a product manufactured in russia with 100 percent russian parts" = 1 percent are russian parts. 10 percent are US parts, the rest is chinese.
"I made sure this was absolutely 100 percent produced in russia" = Run for your life.
"Our money is safe" = Yes, OUR money. Meaning your money is MY money. And MY money is the money of the president and his friends.
Thanks for the laughs. But sadly you are 💯 correct on everything. Now how do we get the Russian’s to realize this as well. 😂
Have you ever been in Russia or just saw some cartoons?
@@salimmazariboufares3118 I grew up in the soviet union and speak russian. I know the culture very well. But i am no russian. Yes i have been to russia multiple times. People there are not that much different than people in the west.
But there are simply things you know you can not talk about. And things which you can not write about. Even when you disagree with a lot of things the government does.
I think people in every part of the world don´t want war and live a life with a stable job and raise there children if they have any. People are not born monsters.
@@Navinor No Russians are definitely not like westerners, the thinking is different, the mind set is different, nothing of what you've said is true, complete BS. It does not seems to me like you're someone who really understands what is Russia, Russian people or the Russian culture. Like most of the other ex URSS countries, you found nothing better in the past 30 years as to cultivate a Russophobic mentality.
@@salimmazariboufares3118 Dude, stop writing bullshit. I still have relatives in russia and even in the ukraine on BOTH sides of the conflict. You know nothing about me.
Do you know why a lot of people in the west have problems with the russian mentality? Because it ALWAYS contains a streak of paranoia. It is always "they don't know us" or "everybody is against us".
Do you know how many westerners who try to be on a good side with russians are getting shunned by russians themselves the moment they are mentioning they are not from russia?
Russians hate it when you point out how their society really works. Best example right now is the military draft.
Everybody is a great patriot but when the people from the military come to get you to the frontline people flee to georgia, kazhakstan or finnland.
In russia the speech itself has often an "undertone" to it which russians know to read. Things often are not the ways they seem and russians know that. A russian will basically never tell you the truth to the face. Yes he will yell at you for some other reason, but will never have a "real" discussion.
I speak perfect russian. When i am talking to people from the USA and mentioning i was born in the soviet union i am rarely getting a hostile reaction.
YOU are a PRIME EXAMPLE to see what happens when people with even russian relatives from a former soviet republic try to talk about russia.
EXACTLY this is why a lot of people hate russian behaviour. You take everything as a personal attack!
Thank you for the very insightful interview Chris and Stanimir!
I worked in Air Force HUMINT. Fascinating interview!
Whilst a lot of newer Russian planes look great on the outside, you just know that somewhere inside that sexy exterior, there are 1950s relays, clockwork stuff and parts made of the finest shonk. There's always been a "smoke and mirrors" thing about Russian fighters and bombers and although the wallpaper looks nice, there isn't much wall behind it.
This describes all of Russian industry, particularly government run/sponsored industry.
It's Russian culture essentially. Everybody keeps BSing each other so everyone gets to hear what they want to hear, all the way to the top.
Things fall to pieces when reality can no longer be hidden/denied.
Its those washing machine chips
Don't forget the 5 inch Garmin civilian satnav held with cable ties on the instrument panel with maps 20 years out of date......
@@a5cent Exactly this. I grew up in the soviet union. To understand how the russian system works, people have to understand that basically everything said in public is open bull***. Everybody is a patriot in public. Everybody is a hard worker in public. But in reality there is a second subsystem behind the "public system" where you belive and do exactly the OPPOSITE preached in public. Every person living in russia knows this game.
And because EVERYBODY is lying, it gets very chaotic. Because of this russia does not understand the west. In the west there are social subsystems too. But not literally everything said in public is a lie.
Russia has a Potemkin Air Force and Aerospace Industry.
Always an outstanding video and presentation.
Corruption isn't the "only" problem, but it's pretty serious when SU57 procurement funding keeps buying mansions and villas in Western Europe.
What good is Su-57 Felon procurement if Russians are afraid to use it??
Isn’t the Russian defense budget a 20th of the US ?…
@@nihluxler1890 Exactly. With that small amount of cash, they have done extremely well.
As if there is no corruption in the west,it's probably higher than Russia
@@AhmedAdly11 I mean one of the main issues in the first few days of their invasion of Ukraine was their armored vehicles having tire blowouts and the crew abandoning the vehicle or spending two days searching nearby farms and junkyards to try and find a spare to fix their vehicle. Come to find out the higher ups were spending their funds on cheap Chinese made tires that they probably found on Wish and then they would pocket the difference of money if they would’ve bought more durable tires that hold up significantly better than the wheelbarrow tires they ordered. I can’t remember the numbers but it was mind-boggling the amount of armor that was lost as a result of neglecting simple maintenance. So I would say no they haven’t done good for what they have.
I hope all our German friends go out and tell their politicians to FREE THE LEOPARD!!!
More interesting and informative than I even thought. Excellent work!!!
A most insightful interview and video Chris. Although I would disagree with the title assertion that the Aerospace Industry is kaput. It certainly struggles with inconsistent and often misplaced funding and personnel shortages (which I have heard of in passing) but to say its dead would be a bit much.
It's a video title, not a dissertation ;)
@@MilitaryAviationHistory And I take no real issue with it. It's part if the RUclips business afterall. Or as Derek of Veritasium calls it, "Legitbait" and I have no problem with it if the content is excellent as yours is.
It's just after seeing so much trash with similar titles and thumbnails on RUclips I am predisposed to be rather negative toward such titles on instinct.
It's Kaput, its low build quality of Their civilian Jets an poor after-market support ( for decades in their Military Branch) along with the Cultural Stupidity Of Cheapness. (India and Britain suffers those same sloth ridden Traits) ...Its only because it exists that it's spoken of .. Worth LM to throw them a few Billion a Year just to make Targets for F-35.. Thank goodness for Communist China..
@@MilitaryAviationHistory it's kind of click bait, is it not? I think it's sensationalism that doesn't really fit the objective lens you typically employ. It just seems out of character and likely gives people ammunition to discount your commentary out of hand. Personally, I'd avoid it in the future.
I mean the industry is not capable of mass producing a modern aircraft, civilian (at least without importing core components) or military, that is not a sign of health.
Props to this Stanimir guy coming on with this dope gaming headset
Wonderful interview! Thanks so much.
Excellent interview, extremely enlightening. Thank you.
I love these interviews they are so professional well done ✔️
I was initially worried, I saw a nearly 30 minute interview video and was concerned about how long that would take. But wow, if anything it was over too soon! Very interesting conversation. I could have listened for another hour.
"Everyone can land (once)" :)
Great insights as usual Chris. Looking forward to your next project :).
Excellent conversation! Gives a great insight into the issues the Russian aviation and defense industry in general are facing
They still owe my country 2 Billion pesos for those Mi-17's the last President wanted but ultimately dropped...
@@chooseyouhandle Price-per-performance, if you don't have high operational requirements for the equipment, Soviet/Russian stuff is often way better
@@talltroll7092 Price/performance for Russian systems? Yeah no.
@@LRRPFco52 IF you don't have high operational requirements for them. If you want to invade a NATO member or ally with them, yeah, maybe not, but if you want to play in the sandpit with all the other poor kids, they are pretty good. The T-55 is still the tank operated bythe largest number of countries worldwide, for instance
@@chooseyouhandle they use old hueys and were buying new ones from Canada, but then the Canadians threatened Duerte over his attacks on crime so he got angry and just cancelled them. Now they are buying more expensive Blackhawks because of the sanctions on Russia and also turkish attack choppers.
@@talltroll7092 Often true. But when it comes to performance, in the military the old maxim often applies - you get what you pay for...
Before the new "Ilyushin" plame crushed, there was also the incident with new "Kamov" transport helicopter, which crushed due to sub-standard parts installed on it.
Prototype crash... Oh, that never happens in western countries
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t
Нет, блядь, it wasn't just "a prototype" issue, someone really cut corners and got counterfeit bearings or parts for main rotor axis. It was cheaper, so there it goes, nobody will notice, right?
That lead example was really good, never thought about how much their raw resources might be effected by stopping exports, always just kinda thought of them similar to oil. Great video as always!
Nice video as always!
Stanimir Dobrev is a very interesting person. I hope that you can have him on more often
Are we all going to ignore the Post-it notes on the wall? "The pattern is full" "Going in for guns" and "Everyone can land (once)"
Brilliant analysis and video, of an excellent topic. Thank you.
Excellent guest. Stanimir Dobrev 👏🏻👍🏻🙏🏻
There's something that is a bit about the subject. The Su-57, the 5th generation fighter that was developed by Russia from the PAK FA program was developed with Indian funding. There was another project called the Sukhoi/HAL FGFA or PMF. That aircraft would have been an Indian version of the Su-57. There was no development in the Sukhoi/HAL FGFA or PMF because all the money went into developing the Su-57 and after that the Indian version would have been developed. It was a smart move on Russia's part. Still, it does show that they didn't have the funding. India and HAL withdrew from the project.....at least for now.
My question from an industrial scaling standpoint is: Where are they going to get all the semiconductors and TRM elements for all the sensors specified in the Su-57? It’s supposed to have 3 AESA Radars in the nose, various antennae distributed throughout the airframe, missile warning sensors, cameras, nice glass cockpit, DFLCS, FADEC, EW systems, etc. That’s a lot of X-Boxes I guess. They have to buy civilian electronics, process them through a grey market component extraction scheme, then solder the Western microelectronics into their boards. What a horrendous supply chain to try to manage. What happens when someone exploits that supply chain with malware and failure-designed components?
@@LRRPFco52
I never said the Russians don't have problems. They don't have the infrastructure right now. The Chinese might be able to provide some of those components.
We'll manage :)
Let me just remind you that US once bought titanium from USSR to build SR-71 and SU had no idea thei it was US who bought the metal
I understand that Indians got so fed up with Russian delays and excuses that they bought Rafale fighters from France, wonder if the Brahmos program is really as succesful as both Russia and India are pretending
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t There is a major difference in complexity between selling material and developing a semiconductor industry.
Even with the Soviet Unions far greater resource potential than Russia they failed in developing one, which puts major doubts on the capability of a contemporary Russia to be able to construct one especially taking into account the major brain drain Russia is facing.
Does Stanimir have a blog or a RUclips channel ?
Great content!
Thank you
These was a program for the SSJ to replace the joint venture engine with a Russian engine, the PD-14. A bit of a surprise that they weren't able to resolve the issues with the combustion chamber, Snecma (French) is usually a capable manufacturer and they are the ones who built the engine core.
Imagine other nations who have competing interests with Russia. They learn that Snecma is building the turbine cores and that licensed US technology is being used on the Superjet. Use your imagination for the rest of the story. Also, Russia isn’t known for its maintenance, preventative checks and services, and is a harsh climate with thick, sub-freezing air a constant. That’s good for engine performance, but not durability. These factors can all combine into reducing critical parts life in the turbine cores.
@@LRRPFco52 I fly the Dash8. I know Russia seems cold, but altitude is cold. It's pretty normal for it to be -40 in the cruise. The aircraft can handle -57, after than the fuel starts to thicken. So the ground in Russia isn't actually cold for aircraft, nor is it particularly more salty than anywhere else. Perhaps the air density is high, but as you set a particular power on take off, not a fuel flow rate, denser air actually result in a cooler running hot section, which is good for engine life. France wasn't using US licenses for the engine core, it's based of the M88 French core. Possibly there is some old license from the CFM56? But that was half French anyway. Perhaps the avionics were US, although no trouble there. You don't actually maintain the combustion chamber. That's actually the problem, that they ARE having to do maintenance in it at only 4000 hours. I had a check and Safran are trying to fix it. The used military tech, that went poorly in the Rolls Royce Trent as well. Took Rolls a couple of years to fix. I'm not to sure we can blame Russian maintenance, hot sides don't get any and other Russian aircraft don't have this issue.
@@greybuckleton Tracking on higher altitude air temp. Been flying since the 1970s, worked in aerospace and defense since then.
There's something about US technology in the Sukhoi Super Jet that governed sales I was reading about. My only other guess would be sabotage or designed lower life expectancy.
@@LRRPFco52 the USA doesn't seem to be directly involved in any way. Avionics are from Thales is seems and the M88 is an all French engine core (Rafale engine). Sales are pretty weak, but that's quite possibly due to the fact that regional jets are actually a very weak and saturated market and the SSJ does seem to have some dispatch rate issues. Its more or less the same price as the E-Jet, performance seems similar. The SSJ has a much bigger cabin which would be nice for passengers and a more advanced (Although troubled) engine. The magical fuel economy figures are not presented. Both are probably terrible choices compared to an A320NEO or an ATR72. The E jet seems to have managed a decent number of sales, perhaps the SSJ is just considered to high risk as its niche, so has less support and parts and then there is the politics. The engine situation frankly seems no worse than the 787 Trent. Its quite possible that the M88 is fine in the Rafale because they don't fly many hours and that they just didn't realise it wasn't going to last at commercial flight rates. And now there is so few SSJ engine sales they may be a bit less keen to invest in fixing it. Russia should probably consider competing in the turboprop market. With De Haviland all but dead ATR is the only player in the market, and Russia has some pretty impressive turboprop engines. A 100 seat turboprop might have a lot of appeal, and India and China are large operators of these types of aircraft. In the mean time it looks like they will get an all Russian engine on the SSJ, might be popular in the markets locked out from western equipment, which is growing rather rapidly.
There had never been any plans to replaced ssj engines with PD-14. The PD-14 was designed for MS-21, and had only finished the trials in 2022. Ssj is now waiting for PD-8 which is based on PD-14 and it will take a few more years for the engine to enter mass production
Excellent! Appreciate you doing the thorough job covering this story.
Much of this reminds me of something I read years ago from two Russians who had been state economists for the USSR in the decades before the USSR dissolved. They spoke heavily on the simply massive inefficiencies of the Soviet/Russian industries. One thing they said really stuck out to me: that by the 1970s Japan, which had essentially zero strategic resources and no oil/energy reserves, was able to produce high quality steel at HALF the cost of Soviet plants. Crazy. Russia had simply massive high quality iron ore deposits, huge oil reserves etc, but Japan, which had had its two largest industrial centers NUKED just one generation before, was making good steel for half the price as compared to Russia.
And now? 50 years later ???? Oh yeah they are no longer communists so what’s your point,
The explanation is simple - in central-planned economy like that of the USSR, there are no incentives to cut costs and increase efficiency. On the contrary, the higher your costs are, the more resources you will receive from the State .
Mr Dobrev’s headset is 🔥.
It looks like it came from a cyberman dj.
Nuts. now I’m trying to imagine Cyberman dubstep music. It’s not bad.
Chris, thanks for this interview. Mr. Dobrev provides clear insights into the hows and whys of Russias dysfunction.
Su-57 is not great, not terrible. It is the best they have and only built a few. While not fully stealthy if is an incremental improvement over Su-35. But the engines are particularly problematic and have a habit of catching fire. If they managed to work out the issues and build hundreds of them, Su-57 could help partially modernize their forces but that appears to be beyond their means.
Su-34 is their most modern ground attack fighter and it is not terrible but easily spotted by radar. If they had even a semi stealthy variant it might be more practical. Something like an Su-57 with an Su-34 cockpit and many external hard points for weapons, they wouldn’t be stealthy but at least less observable than an Su-34.
Tu-160M2 is their best bomber available. It isn’t stealthy but it is fast and has pretty good capacity and range. There is room for improvement there in stealth, reliability, avionics, and weapons loading interfaces. But they are an extremely expensive aircraft to build and operate and updating further or acquiring more in large numbers may be beyond their means. If this happened though they could partially modernize their bombers.
If they focused resources on a few of the most capable platforms and built hundreds of units of each then their military aircraft inventory would be more impressive but the cost to do that would be huge and the capabilities would only have modest incremental improvements.
The civilian aircraft and military aircraft are all suffering from lack of quality parts. Even the Chinese flankers have more reliable engines and more capable avionics than Russian flankers. The Chinese parts are not on par with the USA or Europe but are a notch above Russia.
If Russia sold out most of their aviation industry to Chinese companies and transferred some of their technology in, then reliability and production rates would probably improve. This is probably politically untenable. But not impossible.
China has been making an effort to create domestic parts to replace foreign options and have made significant progress towards that through a combination of research, espionage, adaptation, and development. The means is questionable but they are showing results. They have had particular focus on CFM engines used on 737 variants and others. CFM is a joint venture between GE and Safran and thus has access to some of the best technology in the world. They have gone beyond direct copying and are instead adapting engine technology for their own needs and production capabilities. This gives them a variety of related engine projects at different stages of development and for different applications. If Russia gained access to these engines and underlying technology their reliability and maintenance costs could improve. This possibility is a strategic threat.
Leasing of modern commercial aircraft to China and Russia has resulted in widespread IP theft. They also gained deep knowledge of reliable systems and can emulate them in their own designs. This is in addition to the widespread industrial espionage going on globally, providing technical information on a wide range of things. Eventually when this is incorporated into Russian industry, the traditional low reliability and build quality of Russian aircraft may become a thing of the past. But they have serious structural problems and corruption problems in their industry that is delaying that outcome. Fortunate for us, but we should not rely on that continuing.
China has better avionics, not better engines. Russia has had access to US patents and materials sample for generations due to treason within the US and exploitation programs, and they still can’t duplicate them because they don’t know how to run production management, supply chain management, or make quality electronics. Their most advanced industry, aerospace, lacks modern manufacturing facilities just in terms of clean floors, intact windows, proper ventilation, and basic safety, let alone modern production line automation, flow-through, and delivery schemes.
Total Quality Management is beyond their culture. It will never happen there. People talk about the Soviet collapse as an event that happened in 1989-1992, but it’s a continual snowball rolling down the hill that never stopped. It actually started in many ways with the Russian Revolution and Civil War, with a little bit of a post-WWII bump, but by the 1970s was well on its way down to failure, camouflaged by them becoming a net oil/NG exporter.
We’re watching the residue of the USSR slowly continue to fall apart in all domains of their society, whether looking at demographics, economics, military, industry, politics, education, infrastructure, and international relations.
I don't trust that the quality in China is any better.
They build for propaganda as well.
China has been replacing Russian engines in their Flankers with Chinese engines. They have vastly more industrial espionage resources than even the Soviet Union had at the height of their power.
But we made it easy for them by even leasing Western commercial aircraft that then got inspected and had some features and technology examined and replicated to some extent.
China got particularly good technology from CFM engines on leased 737. Their most recent engines incorporate some of these features. They hide some development progress by not assigning new part designations despite significant changes.
They have greatly expanded aircraft production and this suggests that they have sufficient engine manufacturing capacity to put in them as they are not importing Russian engines in large numbers any more.
@@stupidburp But they have regular fighter engine explosions every year in the J-10 & J-11 series, with ruptured fuel cells and aircraft lawn-darting into the ground, people's villages, and ocean like clockwork.
Look at J-10 mishaps, for example.
Chinese engines are not as good as Western engines, they are just slightly better than Russia’s terrible engines.
12:03 an example of the Russian cultural concept of вранье (vranye), lies where you know I'm lying and I know that you know that I'm lying but as long as we both pretend I'm not lying then everything is okay...until somebody needs the thing we're lying about...like during a war.
Great dialogue! Aeroflot will need more than domestic production. If it plans to re-enter the international marketplace, the new Tupolev and Ilyusian design bureaus will need to re-certify their fleet for international service. That may require system updates with computer components and programming that are not available now during the sanctions.
Thx for the intersting insights.
Hey, I hate to go off topic. Question that's been bugging me this morning. Why did the Italian Air Force never adopt the BF 109 or FW 190?
I'm speculating, but my guess is that Germany needed every available airframe they could produce, and the Italian government wanted to foster its own aviation industry rather than build someone else's stuff under license.
@@scullystie4389 That would be my thought as well. The Italian aviation industry actually had some very nice designs, but the reality of their industrial capacity limited them. Still, they did know that they needed a domestic aviation and shipbuilding industry if you were going to be a first class power. As you said Germany never had the spare capacity to make planes for Italy. They likely supplied many as Italian losses mounted and Italy's industry couldn't replace losses, but it was more of an expediency to help keep Italian forces in the field and wasn't something Germany had planned on pre-war.
@@kentvesser9484 Germany did supply some obsolete 109Es to Italy around '43 I think, and likewise Germany used a handful of Mc.202 Folgores after Italy surrendered. I'm sure the 202 and 205 using Italian-built DB601/605 engines eased their integration into the Luftwaffe.
@@kentvesser9484 Yet the Germans went to the time and expense of sending parts of aircraft and equipment to Japan? And Allied bombing had not really affected production prior to the surrender of the Italians.
@@scullystie4389 I asked the question because Allied bombing really hadn't affected German aircraft production prior to Italy surrender. And the Germans spent the time and expense to send equipment all the way to Japan to produce aircraft and engines. It seems like additional German aircraft would have been helpful in the Mediterranean theater in Italian hands?
The war of the Soviet Union vs Afghanistan was the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia just triggered the beginning of the end for the Russian Federation. It may not happen quickly, but it will happen.
They were well on their way to collapse by the early 1970s, but they were headed towards being a net exporter of oil/NG at that time, so they were able to prolong and camouflage their underlying structural problems with revenue from petroleum. Instead of investing those revenues in revitalizing their domestic infrastructure, the money went into defense programs, Afghanistan, and their space program trying to compete with the US still. They had already suffered 6 major brain drains by 1972, so they were headed down into the toilet spiral anyway. They had a partial reactor meltdown of Reactor #1 at Chernobyl 1982 they hid from everyone, but when they had the famous disaster in 1986, which they couldn’t hide because it was contaminating the region.
The Russian collapse is still well underway like a glacier falling into the ocean slowly. It never ended.
Sources: University of Moscow, Economic History of the USSR
Russian studies from 1979-present
Living in Russia
Indeed.
It's so sad that the Russians always need to kill a lot of their neighbours to sort out their own internal issues.
The end for Russian Federation? You really should stop smoking that stuff and hit yourself with history book and the map.
@@LRRPFco52 minor correction: they couldn't hide the Chernobyl disaster because of the radioactive fallout that flew outside their borders. (There's some parts of Sweden today where it's not recommended to go picking mushrooms for eating, for example.)
@@mnxs That was the 1986 disaster that caused Sweden to shut down their reactor when plant workers' dosimeters were registering high readings and the Swedes thought it was something wrong with radiation leaks with them.
Chernobyl had a partial reactor meltdown in 1982 on reactor #1 that was kept secret.
Very interesting and informative.
I hope you have a great day! The wink was super cute.
Had a shite day, this is just fantastic right now! Thx!
Hey buddy, bad days happen, wishing you a fantastic tomorrow! Take care and keep that chin up
I wish you flights above the cloud cover, mate!
Loving the vatnik cope in the comments. Keep up the good work!
love your work
Fantastic interview! Thanks!
A good guest speaker.
He's a paid propagandist.
Companies in Western countries also buy a lot of titanium productions from Russia. In the future, that will change, and then the Russian titanium industry will be kaput.
Russia also does not have any large deposits of titanium. It used to get it from Ukraine during the Soviet times. Now it will need to buy it from India or China, but I doubt China will sell a lot of it to them due to not wanting competition.
Japan makes more Titanium than Russia now. China makes more than twice of what Japan makes, as of 2020 at least.
Well, we can still get it from urkaine, you know
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t If you mean Russia, then I doubt Ukraine will want to sell titanium to their biggest enemy.
Titanium is used in a lot of aircraft parts, especially jet engines. Ukraine will not want to help rearm Russia.
Russia threatening the world, also makes it less likely that the major economies will ever want to have anything to do with Russia.
@@willw8011 " If you mean Russia, then I doubt Ukraine will want to sell titanium to their biggest enemy."
Who knows if they'll still have titanium to sell after the war ends
"Russia threatening the world"
Did US threaten the world when it invaded Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan? Russia is threatening Urkaine, nothing more.
"also makes it less likely that the major economies will ever want to have anything to do with Russia"
India and china do want to have something. And they will. Especially the latter one
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t because of its high-tech uses, it's likely that titanium would be considered a strategic material by the powers-that-be. Assuming that Ukraine wins the war, I could easily see how they, perhaps under advisement of their allies, would opt _not_ to sell Russia any titanium.
Great interview and insight into the Russian aviation industry.
Thanks! Now we know more!
Tank thermal imagers from France? Did I hear that correctly? ~17:50
French thermal imagers are present in a lot of Russian tanks. The French also tried to sell a Mistral amphibious assault ship to the Russians as well. Bonkers to think of it now!
These osint idiots usually have a knowledge lag of ten years.
Excellent interview. Many thanks for this.
Please explain around 13.5 mins.
Reduce ineffecieny. Is it meaning inefficiency is disappearing, or efficiency is improving? Double(-) usually implies the opposite. I think the intent is Inefficeny is increasing, or becoming less efficient?
Not just the air industry
Is this only the Russian commercial aerospace industry, or also the military aerospace industry as well?
Both and much more. The whole society is like this. I lived there from 2008-2009. It’s very primitive and backwards, like a place time forgot. Very cold, frozen, drunk, and dilapidated with zero signs of improving. The collapse never ended, but continues like a glacier sliding into the ocean.
@@LRRPFco52 Confirm. I studied, worked and travelled in Moscow/SPB/Kyiv on-and-off from 2002-2013. It's worse outside of Moscow/SPB. People in the West have no idea.
@@threethrushes I went through Saint Petersburg at least 8 times, lived outside of Moscow in a dacha village while going into Moscow every week, and also lived with Cossacks down in Obninsk.
The apartment buildings in Russia were falling apart, still heated by giant wood-burning boilers manually-operated in the basement boiler rooms. All the mail boxes were ripped out except in apartments owned by intelligentsia in special districts, and those looked like they had been built no later than the 1960s.
New apartment high rises were already heavily vandalized.
immer wieder gut!
nice track ir on the monitor :)
So, it's not just that they are corrupt - they are incompetent as well.
Ged
Excellence is discouraged
Sorry but where do you get your information?
The new issue is stress and pressure amongst the management and workers, having worked in an ex communist factory the in the late 90's it was scary the suppression mustered out to the workers, the factory worked in super silence, just a background hum . The result was hard to prove but the gear treatment plant either sabotaged the heat treatment process or had the wrong settings, the result was 1000's of gears failed under load but it took 5 years to sort it out with one in 10 gearboxes failing..
Dang, I hope you're in a better place in life sir. I couldn't imagine that.
Qunten Tarantino called. He's casting you as a young Hans Landa
Sounds like a mafia business model.
AND THIS. is why i subscribed.
For the channel to interview paid propagandists?
@@jamesrowlands8971 And look who the propagandist is... You!!! 🤡🤡
@@ltfreeborn incorrect. It's easy to verify that Stanimir is paid to produce propaganda.
@@jamesrowlands8971 Lets say that he is a "Propagandist" as you say. His claims on the Russian air industry aren't unfounded. That is a very real issue that can kill hundreds of people. Cannibalizing grounded planes to support the ones that can still fly is not a good thing. It'll help in the short term in reliving the shortage of aerial parts, but in the long term It'll leave you with skeleton planes that A: Can't fly, and B: if they could fly, they'll be too unsafe so they'll likely still stay grounded (they're also foreign aircraft just repainted Russian). And also where is this so called "Propaganda" anyway? Could you link a non Russian site where it states as such? And if you deny this, you have either, believed Russian propaganda or are a Pro-Russian propagandist.
@@ltfreeborn so what? The issue is not disclosing the partiality of the propagandist, not whether or not they back up some of the things they claim with verifiable sources.
What is the old saying, you don't win a war with bullets but by economics. Whoever has the better functioning economy wins.
Like North Vietnam and Afghanistan (x4!)?
@@johanmetreus1268 In each of those cases the US military was handicapped by politics and poor vision of objectives. You could throw in the Korean war as well. But in declared all-out war the better economy and logistics wins. Not sure why you want to resort to pseudo foul language. Doesn't improve your position.
@@Neuroguy1 I dare you to find any even remotely foul language in my post.
US military was in Afghanistan, but they got invaded several times before that, and the invaders always drew the short straw in the end, regardless if USA, Soviets, Brits or someone else.
As for Vietnam, what could the US military have done if they were not handicapped, short of total genocide like MacArthur got removed for demanding in the Korea war?
So given Russia is currently fighting the combined economies of the EU & USA, and not losing what's that say about our economies and industrial base?
@@jamesrowlands8971 The aid given to Ukraine is a drop in ocean that is the west's collective military budgets. It's costing pennies on the dollar to neuter the Russian military. After this war Russia will struggle its aggressive expansionism with its neighbors for decades to come, especially with the CTSO falling apart.
The reason the Russian political body has to throw tantrums and threaten to nuke half the damn planet is because in a conventional war they know Russia wouldn't stand a chance.
Remember the tank meeting Futin just had. He said 1 month to get the tanks, lol.
I was wondering if your guest could speak about the Civilian Russian (Boeing and Airbus) aircrafts that have been sent to Iran for their big repairs and overhauls. There seems to be some type of the agreements between Russia and Iran.
It feels like we are living through a major change in production. I know the circumstances are wildly different but I feel like this is similar to British shipbuilding pre ww2 vs post ww2
How so?
@@marseldagistani1989 Pre-2022 everyone was buying ammo & weapon systems for peace-time armies, just enough to sustain things.
After Russian invasion every weapon producer demands sky-rocketed globally in western world.
@@marseldagistani1989 After WW2 British shipbuilding died.
@@bruceparr1678 the primary reason being that the UK was effectively broke by VJ-Day, right? Just the whole post-war reconstruction thing (which is honestly fair enough, rebuilding your country isn’t a bad priority. Also establishing the welfare state and NHS, yeah do that over building ships).
@@SpiritOfMontgomery ....selling the ships, wealth creation, gives more money from taxation to fund the NHS. How do you think the Country's finances work?
Thanks Christoph and Stanimir. Truly informative. Some things, such as corruption and reinforcing failure, never change. Our Labour government in New Zealand, is just as bad when it comes to facing reality and rooting out corruption BUT they can be voted out!
Exactly. They can be voted out! This is what we Ukrainians are fighting for here in Ukraine. The ability to choose better leaders if the current ones fail us. We have this ability, not only legally, but practically and realistically. Recently the people of Belarus lost this freedom. Russia almost never had it. And now if Russia conquers us, we'll lose it too! That's one of the main things we are defending. At least that's how I see it.
@@Concord003 Agreed. Have the best year you can.
I must admit that I'm not particularly well-versed in New Zealand politics, but I find it extremely hard to believe that that country would have any sort of corruption issues that are even remotely in a comparable league to the shitshow that is Russia. Not saying there isn't corruption, that happens everywhere. But there are leagues of difference.
@@mnxs The scale will be different, I agree.
Always enjoy your work Chris
thanks
So Russia might defeat Germany in a Kaputtheitscontest?
Antonov in the Ukraine was the leader of the Russian aircraft industry.
That's a pretty sweet sweater.
Cool cyberman headphones
to me it just seems like russia's military ought to look more like the british military, keep the subs, scrap the carriers, cruisers, and any of the old 1-off soviet stuff, make a smaller but much more lethal ground force, pick a bomber to keep, use it for launching cruise missiles, ditch everything else, basically slim down, make more lethal
but but then they would have admit - and accept - not being an empire any longer! Just one more has-been country like GB, France, Italy, Spain.
That will never happen.
Coming from a brit, our military is so underfunded and underequipped that it may as well not exist tbh
There was an attempt, actually. The previous Russian defence minister before Shoigu (or whatever) was actually reasonably competent; a guy with a background in taxes and accounting. Unfortunately for Russia, his attempts at streamlining and optimising ruffled too many feathers, and he was replaced.
It would have to start with wide scale purges. Most of the Russian top brass is only there through corruption and inside deals. They don’t give a shit about anything but their position. The thing is, the entire Russian government is so corrupt that these generals would probably mutiny
That's not how Russia fights wars. It's still a massive empire, it needs a large army to maintain its borders and keep power within those borders. Thr United Kingdom is a small island nation with a small population. Two completely different nations require completely different styles of fighting.
I wonder how bad things will get if/when there's a coming out of sanctions for the commercial airline industry. When you consider Boeing and Airbus announced they would discontinue maintenance to Russian planes, there was an attempt by the lessors to repossess what planes they could. Russia retained many of them however. While they may cannibalize some of them for parts, I'd assume if they don't just get repossessed immediately, those planes will all need full maintenance checks (not quick or cheap) before anyone is going to be happy with them entering their airspace over populated areas. Also, the fact that Russia essentially stole the planes, a lessor would be hesitant to lease newer planes again to a Russian airline as they'd have a huge risk attached. Would you give collateral to someone that is knowing for taking off and not paying for it?
Those stolen planes will have to be written off as far as use in the west is concerned. Russian maintenance and especially maintenance records cannot be trusted. Because of this, no western leasing company will ever supply Russia again. Neither will Airbus and Boeing will sell them planes or parts direct, so Russia is screwed.
From my observation this is how everything works in Russia. If it's not made for export.... it's made poorly, under corrupt management, and in the most expensive way possible.
Not boring!!!
Russian Economy... is Potato.
Does this include the Russian Space Program also? I am saddened if it does.
It's basically dead since 2020.
Some launches for military and local companies, but every over program had been significantly shrinked or terminated.
thx
Russia is like a Chihuahua. Small dog that makes a lot of noise and bites everything. But it's still a small dog.
It's actually a big Chihuahua dog- but it's mostly fluffy dirty fur, underneath is a sick tiny dog.
Sooooo... Putin is a Mexican?
What does russia need to import? I think you said in regard to tu160?
Electronics, for one.
The fact that until 2022 Russian tank factories depend on, get this, Israeli and AMERICAN machined parts for their engines...
@@dashikashi4734 such as? How did they produce them before the union fell? And the tank thermal sights is bullshit. They copied the French design domestically
@@DRP3ck3r Copy is one thing, producing it is another.
Turbines for Mil helicopters engines were produced in Ukraine only. Post last February Russians can get them new and or past decade can't get started with new domestic factory.
There's specific materials for details and for tools. Sometimes they just can't get the "resolution" of these tools.
@@maciek_k.cichon any source for this?
What I would REALLY LIKE TO KNOW is…Are these types of open conversations happening in Russia between the folks that matter?
All i can say is, it's good that you say on the front page of your channel that you're a partner of the "United States Naval Institute Press".
They didnt made a good jet in like 70 years
Eh?
They certainly lack sensors and still use a seperate gps system.
I’m thinking the market for “independent military analysts” is booming. These guys, they seem to be mostly men, who were quietly toiling away in various think tanks or consultancies are now all over the media. They’re going to need stylists, PR specialists and entourages pretty soon.
He's not independent. Stanislav is a paid propagandist.
The Post it Notes seem Familiar XD
One question is that would india still buy additional flanker after getting hold of the rafale? To note is the procurement of singapore, that small country has a better air force even if some air force in the southeast asia is combined
Rafales are more expensive, have a smaller range, and carry less payload.
Singapore has a more rational procurement process for aircraft in part because they don’t have a large domestic aircraft industry to protect. Thus they can buy F-15s with fairly modern equipment included in them in significant numbers and not worry much about the industry implications or self sufficiency. They set aside the unfeasible and unreasonable and just picked the best option available to them. Then they simply signed contracts and made payments to make it happen in a short time period.
Singapore is small and can’t be self sufficient in all areas but doesn’t need to. Focusing economic activity where they have advantages helps fund budgets for all areas. They support domestic military industry where it is feasible and build some quality equipment but don’t bother trying where it is impossible which is prudent. India on the other hand is large and trying to do everything on their own, often even when it is impractical.
I suspect that given all the other challenges within India’s military aviation sphere that the Su-30 will just be gradually used up without direct replacements until the 2030s. At that point there will be a scramble to have competitions and new design proposals. They could just start gradually replacing them now with F-15EX but they probably won’t because their procurement process is dysfunctional.
*Kaputt
both are legit in English www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/kaput
@@MilitaryAviationHistory i know, the humor really didn't come across, i should have added an emoji or something. as a German i just had to do this 😉
oh you