Why Russia Can’t Replace TSMC
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- In late February 2022, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC announced that it would halt shipments to Russia per a new round of sanctions.
The TSMC halt ended shipments from fabless companies like Baikal, MCST, Yadro and STC Module. Intel and AMD have stopped their shipments to Russia as well.
In recent years, Russia has been looking to create their own supply of semiconductors. While there are some interesting domestic design successes, domestic capacity to manufacture those designs have been falling farther and farther behind.
We find ourselves living in strange times. In this video, we are going to do an overview of Russia's ever-worsening domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry.
Read Ian’s write up on the Elbrus: www.anandtech.com/show/15823/...
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- The Podcast: anchor.fm/asianometry
- Twitter: / asianometry
It's really unbelievable how systemically relevant TSMC is.
I would argue it's a national security risk.
@@juno1597 and for many countries !
@@TheNefastor yeah it's actually quite concerning that people don't talk about that more.
@@TheNefastor global supply of bleeding edge semiconductor technology essentially exist in one country that is at arm's length with a communist country with every incentive to have access to that technology if not for bleeding edge compute and intellectual property, but also possible access to back door information only those semiconductor manufacturers would be aware of.
If that supply chain was disrupted when we were already beyond capacity for this technology, it would take an extremely long period of time for the global economy to fully recover in this technology sector.
@@TheNefastor and the worst part is, this precious piece of global technological manufacturing that cannot be relocated, is protected by us believing that China will never behave like Putin.
Russia's dependence on TSMC is interesting because threats against TSMC would be bad news for Russia also, and of course, the whole planet at this point.
It's almost like Taiwan's defense is based more on technological strength rather than on military strength.
You can't attack that which you need to survive. Taiwan is a nation of clever, resourceful people. They've been forced by the CCP to adapt, and they've done much better than simple adaptation to the immense pressure. They're thriving.
As a nation they were very wise to invest in a field where they could become a world leader.
Taiwan has come so far from the post-war years of plantations and plastics.
The Taiwanese are what the Chinese people would be under a better government.
Just like no one puts down Koreans because of North Koreans because there is a South Korea.
Russia cannot hardly do anything because Putin and the gang of 100 had enough stolen all of the capital that could be used for such things. Just imagine, 30% of Russia’s GDP is owned by a little over 100 Russians.
There was a great video on Putin, which described how Putin, in his first government job, showed how he would protect officials who stole money from the state. Learning this, Boris Yeltsin nominated him for president, and Putin granted him immunity from prosecution for corruption.
In that first government job, he and friends stole over 100 million dollars that was approved for purchasing food. No food was ever purchased.
Putin invaded the Crimea because huge oil and gas deposits were discovered in Ukraine’s off shore economic zone just off of the coast of Crimea, and under eastern Ukraine.
The economy is in shambles and Putin and the gang of 100 have stolen so much of the counties capital, Russia doesn’t have any money to invest.
Can you just imagine how much money you have to steal to break the economy of a country the size of Russia? My Lord!
@@jimurrata6785 fun fact: plastic and semiconductor, both were preconditions given by the US, in exchange for their support.
Why Russia Can’t Replace TSMC?
Well...Is there a single country that can replace TSMC without importing production lines?
Russia is supplying his own needs with their own chip Baykal analog i5 2ghz quad used in desktops and laptops its their own architecture not intel or Amd
@@boburhsI'm sorry to disappoint you but:
1. Baikal-M is a low-end CPU, somewhat between Intel Atom and I3 in terms of performance.
2. It is manufactured by TSMC. "Was being manufactured", actually. Until the recent invasion.
3. It was in production for like three or four months. Considering small batches, you barely could find a single Baikal-M-based PC or laptop.
i dont even think you can move the production line
Possibly south korea in a few years with samsung and with SK hynix apparently trying. Possibly intel in a decade.
No one else comes even close.
@@cucurbito That level of performance is more than enough to keep industrial automation going.
No one can. TSMC is so important. It’s almost too important considering how close it is to a major conflict zone
Intel and Samsung are pretty much the only companies that come close. TSMC is still in a league of its own. If something were to happen to TSMC it would take other companies a few years to match TSMC's current manufacturing capabilities.
@@robertbranscum6883 hopefully that prevents wars doubt it tho
@@robertbranscum6883 It is one of the reasons that China will not invade Taiwan.
Everyone in the world is still dependent on the Chinese TSMC. There are almost no countries in the world that recognize Taiwan's independence from China. It would be a mistake to think that Taiwan will be able to maintain its independence from China for a long time. New technologies will come that will nullify today's ones, and Taiwan, betting on only one semiconductor technology, will lose everything. China is not in danger. This is a large country like Russia, where research is being conducted in 1000 or more areas. These countries have the resources to develop in all directions from space to medicine. Taiwan or Ukraine do not have such resources. Russians have their own production of chips, why is there no such thing in Ukraine? Because they abandoned the achievements of Russian civilization and decided to become the backyards of Europe, where there is no industry, science, medicine and future. Taiwan and Ukraine have no future.
That's why US government urged TSMC to set-up new factory in Arizona. American graduates are being sent to Taiwan for internships. It's also similar case with Samsung. If China and Taiwan unit then USA would not have to worry about chip shortage. Then USA can even embargo TSMC Taiwan via patent acts.
I always thought "why do TSMC, Samsung, Intel, etc.. always need to fight for the bleeding edge?". Watching this video gave me another perspective on chip fab politics. If any one company stops for long then someone will step in and take advantage of that hole in the market. Entire Countries are trying to catch up and take contracts away from market leaders. It's insane how competitive this market has become over the years.
you sleep for a minute and you're irrelevant. Intel made that mistake all too clear.
That is why China wants Taiwan so so badly.
@@Rob-vg6lw wrong on the last point. that's not why China wants Taiwan so bad.
China always wanted Taiwan.
Unification with China is as important as anything except to repeat the century of humiliation.
As a matter of fact until China is reunited with Taiwan the century of humiliation will not be considered expired. In other words its considered fundamental to the existence of the country in returning to its position of leadership of the world.
China need to not just keep abreast on semiconductor technology, they realize that they have to get ahead on their own.
@@Rob-vg6lw China wants Taiwan because they want unification and the strategic importance of Taiwans position
It's just different marketing strategies; you can be a leader like Apple or TSMC but at the same time invest a lot of money in research&development and in upgrading equipment; and you can be a "workhorse" and make already proven products that are in stable demand, using old technologies. In both cases you can earn or lose, depending on other factors.
Russia, of course, cannot replace TSMC, but can produce microcircuits with old technical processes. With this approach, you cannot become a market leader, but it is quite possible to solve pressing problems. Both Mercedes and Opel will take you from point A to point B, a Mercedes is simply more comfortable.
"Guns don't need a 7nm chip" is one of my favourite quotes.
But precision missiles, drones, and fighter jets do
@@joefioti5698 No. Already back in the GeForce 3 days governments were freaking out because an off the self product was fast enough to do the job that had required application specific chips up until then. Missiles and drones can probably do perfectly fine with 90nm class shit. And I'd be surprised if there is any non-experimental fighter jets with anything better than 28nm chips in them.
@@joefioti5698 Lol the Minuteman 1 ICBM has only got 4k of memory, 4k was and still is all it takes to take a bird from one place to another place on the planet.
@@outsideworld76 All thanks to the missile not needing to load node_modules
7nm chips aren’t radiation resistant and do not meet the reliability requirements for military systems.
In the 1980s it was joked that Russia produced the world’s biggest microchips.
@@user-fc6bh9ms2p And the user manual is in Russian. How to shoot it.
Largest in world microchips produced in US. Both nowadays and back in 1980s. Strongly recommend to find photos, they are much bigger than you can imagine.
I work in structural steel fabrication, and one of the projects I'm producing steel for is the TSMC plant in Arizona. It's a huge facility.
Hahaha wow what a story Mark!
So how is your sex life? And I love Lisa so much.
I recently drove by it, huge is an understatement
Do you realise this facility in Arizona will be staffed based on diversity not skill?
@@slavakotelnikov2440 how do you know? You work there? Or are you just another Russian bot spreading bullshit?
@@slavakotelnikov2440 I really don't care. I'm getting paid to fabricate the steel for it not to care what happens after that.
From the 90s and onwards, Russian vacuum tubes became quite popular in the audiophile community worldwide, with manufacturers like Electron and Sovtek being very well received.
Ukraine as well, in both circuit and display tubes.
I don't think I've bought anything Russian except razor blades in the last decade at least.
@@hyphen2612 I know, but since the video is specifically about Russian tech, I only mentioned Russian tubes.
Let's hope they are able to replace all those transistors with them
@@barbadolid5170 Haha, good one!
Only because Russian and Chinese tubes are all that are still being made. Both of them pale in comparison to the quality of NOS US or Western European tubes, but those are getting rare and expensive...
Amazing!
To give some sense of how old the 180nm node is, the original Willamette Pentium 4 released in 2000 was fabricated on a 180nm node. The 90nm node is what Intel used it to make the Dothan refresh of the Pentium-M in 2004, and the 65nm was used to make the Core 2 Duo in 2006!!!
AMD's dark days in 2012-2016, during the Piledriver/Steamroller/Excavator era (before Zen) Global Foundries was struggling to move beyond the 32/28nm nodes!
Nice geekwork. From what I understand, making chips smaller (process node) only goes to the following issues: less defects per wafer (smaller is better), different nodes and designs designs have better power consumption than others (90 nm was an energy hog), and the smaller the process node, the higher the volume (you can fit more chips on any given wafer). Arguably for Soviet 'low volume' and "not sophisticated' designs, you can get away with 0.18 micron (180 nm) production. But I'm glad the Russians are backwards.
Core 2 Duo is still a very capable, I'm still using them today.
Sadly each subsequent process nodes bring less benefit (still some benefit) than previous ones.
We might be nearing a soft plateau where nodes after or even 3nm itself will be substantially more expensive than 5nm/7nm for the foreseeable future and the benefits maybe marginal.
The major Innovation might move to design space and specialisation - amd zen 2 (3000 series) was on tsmc 7nm as is intel 12th gen on intel 7nm process, the performance difference between them is staggeringly huge (apple m1 is on 5nm)
I still have my Pentium 4 computer working as it has a 3.5" floppy I can write to for my 1995 CNC mills uploads
@@raylopez99 Do not get fooled that russians are "backwards". Note that analysis focused on bleeding edge chips.
Strategic chips are sensors, transducers and memory chips. Also microcontrollers.
Smaller nodes get lower production yields.
Also in case of nuclear war and widespread nuclear fallout, manufacture of small node chips will become progressivelly difficult.
Soviets know well why going below 100um is not worth it, at least from military standpoint.
Last but not least rad-hard design is norm in Russia, also because of things like radioactive dust from their nuclear test sites and re-processing plants. Russians are used to protect their equipment.
West is not. Very few people and factories protect their equipment, enjoying priviledge of living in non-radioactive world.
I used to live in a place with merely 5x of background radiation due to uranium mining and re-processing operations nearby. This causes many issues, even in electronics like switching inverters or transmitters, where transistors operate close to their breakdown voltages.
It is all manageable, but comes with extra cost.
Your video inspired me to do some rough calculations which end up demonstrating the progress in semiconductor manufacturing quite well: The Motorola 6502 CPU (from all your favorite 80s computers) was manufactured an an 8um process. If you attempted to manufacture a Ryzen 5 (from 2017) on that 8um (8000nm) process instead of a 14nm process, the CPU die would be just over 22 square meters to fit in the same number of transistors.
It would then run only at 2MHz like the 6502
So, if the node process is x1000 bigger (in width of transistor), wouldn't area be 10⁶ times bigger? What's the area difference between these nodes?
@@aebisdecunter I divided the number of transitors in the Ryzen 5 by the number of transistors in the 6502 and multiplied that by the published die size of the 6502 at 16.6mm^2
That's not even a chip at that point, that's a cake.
Motorola did not make the 6502, it was made by MOS. MOS was bought by Commodore.
Could you do a video on TSMC dependance on Russian made C4F6, sapphire substrate,Palladium and ASMLs dependance on Russian neon. The semiconductor industry is an interdependent ecosystem
Russia makes the world's biggest microchips.
Old joke, couldn't resist
I get it, biggest means worst because chips and transistors should be small.
Explaining for people who didn't get it.
@@Moses_VII I get it but somehow having it explained makes it funnier.
The complete joke sounded like this (in my youth): Soviet microchips are the biggest microchips in the world. They have eight legs [pins] and four handles. For transportation.
russian microchips are equipped with four handles for ease of transportation
@@Moses_VII bigger is also slower, in general. I think they will be more power hungry (more powerful??)
Everyone relies on TSMC. Even Intel are using TSMC for their discrete GPU fabbing. This isn't simply a problem for Russia. What is does mean is that if TSMC goes down for some reason Russia won't be hit as hard as the rest of the world. A more interesting question is why can't TSMC be replaced?
High end semiconductor manufacturing is front-loaded with capital investment and takes time to bear fruit. It's a poison pill for bean-counters and shareholders who need immediate return on investment, and that's why domestic manufacture here in America has gradually been replaced by domestic design + outsourced fabrication. It would take several years and a lot of boardroom bravery to replace TSMC so I wouldn't expect it to happen unless the shit truly hits the fan.
Sheer amount of money they are pouring into themselves at the cost of profit.
They reinvest almost all of their profits instead of taking fat paychecks - and they make a lot of profit, and they are at the top of their game right now, to compete with that intel might need government investment from USA, hence
TSMC can be replaced but at what cost? "10", 14++ and 28nm fabs exist in the US in the mean time, they're just not as cool as 10/7/5/3nm. As for domestic Russia, well, the military usually drives their progress. This situation might be a good kick in the ass for more R&D on their end. GAAFET nanowire tech is the near future for smaller transistors and it's been known of for a while now. Make that economical and you solve one of the big problems of the cutting edge while everyone else is dumping cash into the same ol' but ever smaller FINFETS.
That's a tall order though. There are hundreds of individual and cutting technologies that go into fabricating them let alone designing them. 130 and 90nm tech is still tough but a lot easier comparatively.
Or they could simply develop something unique and pretty irreplaceable like their RD7 Rocket engines but in the chip space.
If their shit is so good and runs Linux, world will be like "wuh? need some of that" kind of like how Apple's M series designs are turning heads.
@@miinyoo with a hefty cost and work.
@@JohnDoe-420 that’s exactly right. Bean counting globalists f cked us up. TSMC are only this big because it was outsourced to them. US gave away their tech again.
Hi, I would love to see a video on Russian blue sapphires (40% world production), neon gas (60% of the world production) and micro elements and other stuff the world's production chains need.
The question here is how will those influence production of semi-conductors around the world?
It will affect the world like American Civil War when South was producing 80% of world's cotton - Disordering the supply chain for about a year untill other countries starting their own production. Producing resources is much easier then making final product.
U forgot uranium,fertilisers
@@mushroom4051 potash, titanium and even rare earth. The list grows every time I check it out.
We'll keep buying they'll keep selling.
Even 15 year old computers are perfectly usable today.. you can still do a lot with slightly outdated tech.
True. Especially if your old tech gets maintanance timely.
@@user-kg5lk7xl2x this is part of the problem we are now sewing with Russia's military hardware, the lack of proper financing due to paying off bribes, and a lack of maintenance. This is why we are now sewing Russia's military is a paper military that only looks good on paper. I have old game systems that are 15 - 20 years old and had a laptop that lasted for 10 years, but these things require care and maintenance. Unfortunately the economics and politics of Russia are much like China, full of corruption. This isn't to say Western Nations don't have issues, especially America due to the huge divide between the Ruling Class and those at the bottom of the economic ladder.
@@ernestmac13 Most of what you are hearing about Russian Millitary is a bunch of Ukraine and USA propaganda, its worse than you can imagine and people like you lack the ability to realize that it is propaganda and just believe it.
Obviously Russia has some good stuff, they have top of the line S400, S500, S550 air defenses in the world. They have hypersonic missiles. I mean, they have some good stuff.
Any tank in the world is obsolete from a shoulder fired homing missiles. USA only bombed countries into the stone age who are basically goat herders and had no air defenses, night vision capability. Ukraine has a very large army, well trained and stocked with modern weapons from NATO, and is also getting all the intelligence from the world.
@@ernestmac13 I wouldn`t say that Russian military tech is so bad that it looks good only on paper, especially given that not too many countries in the world engineer their own military and other tech, while Russia does. But of course Russian tech could have been a lot better if not internal problems. China... China`s laws include death penalty for corruption, and you can see news about execusions now and then. Their anti-corruption laws are a lot tougher than Russian laws. And I`m writing this from a 10-year-old laptop that still works great :D
not really the case.
"threatened sanctions over The Crimea Thing"
Ah yes, The Great Crimea Thing of 2014, as it is commonly known
He could have said Crimea Affair, Crimea Controversy, Crimea Crisis, etc.
@@Moses_VII crimea river. 🤪
@@benjaminlynch9958 It's funny how the crimeans really didn't shed a single tear. The referendum was totally fake, but then a bit later a western organisation made a poll in Crimea, and the support for ascending to Russia was absurdly high, but not as high as the result in the referendum.
Sometimes the Russians really shoot themselves in the foot. That time, they had a fake referendum when didn't need to 😆
@@pettahify there was no time, puppet government was planing give it for usa military bases immediately
@@Timsturbs No they weren't. That's a massive lie.
*Anandtech update:* Rostec, Yadro, and Syntacore will transition to RISC-V architectures.
Looking forward to your in depth video! This was really interesting. I still use vacuum tubes from the soviet military in my guitar amp! So interesting to learn about Russian technology, and manufacturing. Thank you for taking notice of today's events, and how it all fits together.
many of us get this wrong , yes smaller nodes are better for power consumption / thermals / higher frequency = more performance but bad for military's use and violent atmospheric environment . also the most important thing is the engineering behind the architecture , if you can achieve a very optimized complex architecture with what ever nodes you have , you can make it work by just using less voltage or less transistors , thus a less powerful 65nm chip but a very efficient one is capable of running anything's and can be comparable to the latest nodes in term of power consumption / perfomance , or maybe a bit less powerful but capable of every task out there . so yeah it's all about how smart they are ...
you get it right
No it’s not about their IQ level. To be relevant in modern tech world you have to bring something valuable to the table and be accepted as part of the team.
Russians think they are smart and should be treated as equal, but in reality they haven’t accomplished anything in all those years. Not a single industry in Russia can claim its 100% locally made.
Every car they ever made was purchased or stolen and they can’t even copy it properly.
Computers are not communist, because they „take away“ work.
In my german city, computers were banned from the cities office in the 90s to prevent job loss from automation.
-Not getting rid of tedious tasks is philosophically insane.
Every automation is a blessing, when the profits don’t accumulate in a single place.
That's crazy. Was that east and west Germany or just 1 side?
@@pqsk It was probably his ONE municipality. I can think of other municipalities in Germany which went somewhat digital early (there are privacy/law related issues why a lot of communication can't be purely electronic specifically) and even maintained their own Linux distro for a while.
Oh my god. That sounds so small town german.
@@pqsk
It was in west Germany and the ban is obviously not in effect anymore.
Complete facepalm, when I heard about it.
ah but commrade... tovarsch... stop spewing that reactionary kapitalyst nonsense
now praise the genocidal... i mean great leader and get byak to the tank factory
Not to be confused with *Micron* (US founded and big player on memory manufacturing)
Not to be confused with Omicron (coronavirus mutation).
Or Macron (the president of France).
Not to be confused with Macaroni (dry pasta shaped like narrow tubes).
Russia Not to be confused with
potato's for chips 🍟 not Vodka
Yep I almost got confused then saw him spell Micron with a 'k'.
Thanks for this clarification 🤓
One thing to consider is that military systems demand reliability, so chips go through years of testing or general use before being accepted.
that's the main target of Elbrus, use for industry/military to avoid potential "hidden capabilities/backdoors" of a western processor
That's very close to being the exact opposite of the truth. Contracting offices make a great show out of insisting on "military specs," but that's just bureaucratese for "must appear to work when first delivered."
Military rockets typically work 30% of the time. Guns of all kinds, from the sidearm pistol up through big league artillery, are produced and distributed en masse exactly because most of them miss most of the time. Tanks sit around for years and then have a half-life measured in hours once they're sent into use.
Military procurement specialists talk about reliability a great deal. Then they talk about reliability a great deal more.
Russia has always lagged behind in technology development/manufacturing. But a great side effect is that they are one of the last remaining manufacturers of good old tubes/valves. So essential for us metalhead guitar players.
It's been a while that DSP already caught up with Tubes. Nowadays, you can only hear the difference if your eyes are open and your pockets are empty and burnt. With closed eyes and an intact pocket, it's impossible to distinguish them.
@@the80386 Yeah. I've been playing around with Fortin Nameless by Neural and it's pretty crazy how analog it sounds.
@otto Lincoln No thats the Darvaza gas crater. Although now that you mention it, Russians did start the hellhole!
Oh no, we need fix GAS CRATER... Its ookay alexi, I have grenade and molotov cocktail! #burningeversince
You can get a tube sound with DSP, but can you really *feel it like analog?*
@@BritishBeachcomber darksydephil
I'm always so impressed by the quality of your research and story telling. Here's another outstanding video. Thank you!
Don't take everything you see at face value, he made major mistakes before as he mainly reads straight from Wikipedia without much research rather than a simple google search.
It is very good because it's niche, and a well sourced video essay
I’m not perfect. But I certainly do more than a simple google search.
@@Asianometry half of the world's neon gas is produced in Ukraine .and because neon gas also plays a role in the production of soc. Russia-Ukraine war, will exacerbate the situation of delays in the production of SOC
@@Asianometry Don't worry, China will replace Taiwan and Samsung in SOC production in the next few years
This channel is way underrated. Thanks for this review. I kept thinking while watching this that foreign firms better review security practices.
i'm blow away by this superb channel, you doing some incredible job of collecting, analysing and presenting info. Big kudos. Subscribed.
TSMC & ASML
Russia has very talented software engineers. Hardware talent? It's hard to even guess. The way they manage stuff, their government, the corruption... all of these are probably a huge factor in why manufacturing lags behind others. This is just my uninformed perception as an outsider, but it really feels like Russia stifles its own innovation by trying to control way too much of its (private) industry. That said, rough times usually lead to innovation and who knows what kind of new CPUs we'll see coming from Russia, based on ARM or RISC-V. I hope Russia will get on the right path, but I'd also like to see it be more innovative - for good purposes that is.
Well, as a Russian i wouldn't say that we're lagging behind because of excessive control. It's likely on the contrary. The only reason MCST and Baikal currently exist is because of bailouts and the help of the government in terms of lawmaking policies and giving grants for development of the new stuff. And only after 2014, when Russia decided that we need to depend less on imports, only after our government started to support our microelectronics industry, we have started to see some new tech that can be considered relevant. Without control and support, there wouldn't even be any russian microelectronics at all, because no business would want to massively invest in something this risky and complicated and it's easier to just build an another shopping mall or re-brand imports as domestics and just start selling goods that are already manufactured.
Actually, re-branding imports as "domestics" and some shady companies exploiting loopholes in our laws of what can be considered domestic is a huge problem here. And that leads to the huge chunk of money being lost on this "domestic" manufacturing instead of going to the companies that actually develop and manufacture their tech in Russia. So I'd argue that there's a need in more strict control, especially now, when Russia desperately needs its own manufacturing and not just developments. This stuff won't just appear magically out of nowhere, the sad reality is that it needs to be controlled and supported by the government in order to even exist, you can't just let it go into a free-float and hope that the market would sort itself out.
@@Warr1on By excessive control I meant measures to steer companies either in or away from the direction wanted by the government. And I might be wrong about this in Russia, but having experienced communism in my own country (Romania), I've seen how companies were "stimulated" to grow into the direction the Communist Party wanted, instead of allowing businesses to take part in the free market. Basically, politics steered and shaped the industry for some agenda.
Re-branding imports (finished products) as domestic products is fraud, which should be illegal everywhere. So this is not what I meant by control.
The industry needs more support indeed, but no steering. The market knows very well what it needs, the industry can easily recognize that, so the government should only support this and even make sure that (domestic) competition can exist, so that the need for talent can grow and innovation to occur as a result.
@@kneekoo State control in a communist country can be efficient and productive. A good example is China, whose economy has caught up with the United States. Communist Vietnam also makes a lot of progress in microelectronics and produces its own processors. At the same time, you can find dozens of free-market democracies on the map that don't produce any technology of their own at all. Open your eyes - democracy and free market is not the decisive factor. Of course, one can always remember the unsuccessful attempt to build socialism in Romania. But what is the practical meaning of this? You live in the past.
@@WatcherSCP Living in the past? It looks like you're advertising communism or you completely missed my point about control done wrong. That's the problem, it's not about communism, but rather typical to communism. China made the same mistakes in the past but they learned. Russia (leadership) needs to learn too.
Free market actually means free - free to succeed and free to be mediocre or fail. If people expect their governments to manage businesses, that's a pretty broken system. Innovation needs to be stimulated and the government should get out of the way otherwise. Too many rules and regulations, or too much control hurt progress. Even the USA has too many stupid rules, regulations and laws that hinder the progress of Tesla and SpaceX. So again, my point was about excessive control.
"Guns dont need a 7nm chip"
...yet...
don't forget that not just TSMC is this important, also the only manufacturer of it's EUV lithography machines ASML. all of the chip foundries that are on the cutting edge of processing nodes 11nm-ish and smaller use ASML machines and it being a Dutch company will prevent any of these to be exported to Russia they are also incredibly difficult to smuggle in especially since they need highly experienced technicians to set them up on site and only a handful of these machines are produced each year.
Jenže komponenty pro ASML se vyrábí po celém světě , a tady stačí aby se to kdekoliv zadrhlo a je konec.
Now canon is trying to make it’s own chip making machines so Russia can mass buy it unless Japan has also sanctioned them
TSMC is a decades of tireless work.. you can't just "replace" it.
OK, but hold up: The US has had the same problems, just a few generations forward. Granted, Uncle Sam has supposedly stepped in and is working to get this fixed, but for years, it has been impossible to build both the smallest chips and the largest wafers in the continental United States.and these new fabrication plants in the US are going to take years and years to go into production. And until then, all sorts of things could cause such a project to become cancelled. A successful invasion of Taiwan would devastate the US in terms of availability of secure reliable chips.
Russia can't replace TSMC, but they can definitely bolster their domestic efforts. Especially now, that they don't have a choice anymore.
If anything can be learned from Russian history, is that they always managed to stay at least "good enough" to be relevant. Like that D student who never studies for tests but always manages to avoid failure.
Except this D student studies harder than everyone
@@jenykoo I'm Russian too :)
But I live in another country.
No,they don't. They don't manage thing well, they fail time abd time again USSR fell apart the same fate awaits Russia. They will get much smaller with w managment.
@@paulbedichek2679
that's just in your wet dreams, but can't be further from reality
@Alex Vig The diffence to today is that the USSR could rely on the combined know how of the former east bloc and the dismantling of the east german industry and its engineers at the time after the war (space race). Now the "D student" is on his own.
One thing is, the vast majority of the electronics we use is not on these super fine nodes. 250, 180 and 130 nm are still used massively, copper AND aluminium. But even if they have capacities with these nodes doesn't mean they have the designs in hand, even cloned..
This is a good video. I especially appreciate the quality of the narration.
Thanks for the great content!
No one can replace TSMC because no one willing risk their live working 15hr a day as a engineer for Intel, Amd, nVidia etc. other then Taiwan.
Even for x5 of salary at common times?
Its that how it will be., at least in China.
Nice work. Very interesting. Well narrated. Thank you!
Thank you for yet another excellent knowledge patch.
More broad question is whether ANY country could build commercially successful chip on their own without cooperation with ANY other country.
Intel already does in the USA
Píšete blbost - skenery jsou z Nizozemí - jejich díly se vyrábí po celé Evropě.
But does Russia need to replace TSMC? They're not a major electronics manufacturer and you don't need commercially viable processes for low volume weapon production
True. Kind of like automotive electronics, would not surprise me if they are still at 180 nm feature size.
Don’t underestimate the effect of this. Losing these bleeding-edge capabilities in manufacturing can hurt, _a lot._ Especially if your military equipment as it is depends on any ICs that they just lost access to.
Short term, their ability to make war may be hampered, depending on how many spare parts they have for whatever weapons and weapon platforms depend on these ICs.
Long-term, this will be devastating. China is the only country that might come to their aid and their abilities also fall far short. During the Cold War, Russia lagging in semiconductors and electronics in general hampered their abilities to make things like radars, as well as miniaturizing them to fit in weapons (eg missiles). There’s a reason Russia depends on semi-active air-to-air missiles so much.
@@liesdamnlies3372 long term this all depends on how fast China catches up. If it takes no more than 10 years they should be ok
@@liesdamnlies3372 Besides what ghyu says, perhaps Putin cares about economic advancement as much as dictator Kim does in North Korea?
consider the fact its not just tech companies but also software companies pulling out, russia could end up hopelessly behind technologically
I feel as if I had just inadvertently joined a high-level government foreign policy briefing. Excellent stuff!
Your video sound of your speach is clear, but there is sth with equalization/mic used that makes it quite difficult to understand even with higher volume levels.
Content very good, thx.
Great research and can't challenge the conclusion.
I agree that PRC will be the main source of supply replace sanctioned supply. As a Strategic Partner, China is motivated to help Russia be as strong as it can .. without sacrificing it's own interests.
I anticipated TMC chip sanctions and in my reading I came across 2 points not mentioned here that can soften the impact of chip sanctions.
1) Russia has long declared chips Military Strategic items and has unregistered chips fabs inbedded in classified military/Aerospace institutions. Obviously what help they can offer the wider Russian Industry is unknown as they are classified but analysts have said the RU Gov has been preparing to upscale these production lines in anticipation of chip sanctions since 2014
2) The type of chips Russia is most dependent on. Russia is not a producer of many bleeding edge electronics, ie phones, graphics cards, supercomputers. Most of the chips required by Russian manufacturers are for heavy industry; Resource Extraction, Energy, Agri-tech, Heavy vehicles (Rail/Shipping). So that reduces the dependency on the highend chips TMC produces. (But the Russian Tech start up sector, like YANDEX, will suffer)
YES Chip sanctions are going to impact, set back and force Russia to restratergise how it produces electronics.
But chips are probably the least of Russian Industries probs. It has suddenly found itself cut off from Western markets. Huge sections of its supply chains will need to be re-orintated or even re-constituted. Entire Industries will dissapear. Russia is going to change to a completely different economy focussing exclusively on trading with Asia, Sth America and Africa.
Also more curious where this will be wartime measure to push russia to stop the waror long term
For consumer market, can always reexport it from China. People will gladly do it
@@789know The war probably has a limited strategic goal of replacing the corrupt, judeo-globalist government of Ukraine with one friendly to Russia, so it can be expected to be over shortly.
The problem is not that the Russian industry needs a lot of chips, but that the Russian economy needs computers, which are no longer supplied. You need a lot of chips to build a computer. You might be able to get some from China, but all of them... Futher, Chinese manufacturers need to be extremely careful that they don't end up on western blacklists and most important of all... it'll be difficult to get payments from Russia. So yes, China will be the best place for Russia to get chips, but it's not that China is going to solve Russia's chip problems.
@@danielmantione What?? USA doesnt make computers.. they use Chinese parts and assemble chinese factories to assemble them into computers with US Brands.
There is ZERO!!! risk of China restricting supply to Russia.
They are "Strategic Partners". Russia is China's closest Ally.
And USA will never risk a sanctions war with China. If they could they would have already.
USA is completely dependent on access to the Chinese market and Chinese Manufacturing and Labour.
And thats no the biggest threat to USA by sanctioning China.
China has now overtaken the USA as the largest Foreign lender to other countries.
More countries are dependent on Chinese Banks now than they are on US Banks.
If USA tries to sanction China, China will retaliate against US Banks and then the rest of the world will have to chose to stay with either USA or China. EU/CAN/AU/NZ/JPN/ROK will stay with USA.. the rest of the world will stay with China.
It's stuns me our under-informed about how powerful China has grown in just the last decade.
There is a reason you are being taught to fear/hate China... USA can't compete with China is a Free Global Market.
@@danielmantione Russia has oil, China needs oil. China has basically everything else Russia needs.
The part around what chips Russia actually exports in high volumes made me suspicious about something that happened/is happening here in Brazil. The current "miliciano" government is cracking down on the semi-conductors and micro-chips investment, saying that it would close CEITEC (aparently it's the only latin america company able to design an fab silicon based chips) even in the current scenario that presents a huge window of opportunity. But even without this opportunity we could at least supply the internal demand for these low tech chips that Russia exports, but for some reason the governments refuse to buy from CEITEC, instead they choose to become more depended on imports, just like it's highly depended now on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus after paralyzing the construction of refineries and 5 factories of oil derivatives that could produce fertilizes and supply our internal demand.
Excites my imagination...
I wonder about the corruption angle. Paid to keep quiet?
CEITEC was an inefficient waste of money, as most state-owned enterprises in Brazil are. Glad that got shutdown, together with the useless space program that only waste money.
How could an enterprise created by that corrupt president that sponsored dictatorships abroad actually produce anything useful? How about allowing private enterprises to work in Brazil, if you think that having a semiconductors company around here is important?
I'm satisfied with foreign industries. I really don't get this "it must be produced here" mentality.
@@fredericomba You see the problem here gentleman and gentlewomen? "The government is fighting corruption!" by disinvestment and dismantling the national industry. "The market/private sector will solve our problems!", like if the private sector was ever prevented from doing their business. What they actually mean is just selling everything to the foreign capital. Example? They stopped counstriction of various fertilizer fabs and refineries, also sold fertilizer fabs we already had making the country highly dependent on imports. Ask him how this is working for the price of food. And that recent presidential visit to Russia? One of the reasons was to sell one remaining fertilizer fab to them.
Morons and traitors.
Because incompetent people rule the industries and countries and care only about themselves. Nobody wants to invest, spend, produce, and with open borders, it's not profitable either. They need to not only invest into their own industry, but also protect it from the cheaper TSMC ones at the expense of the quality of life in the near term.
Could be paid by Russia, as they always devise operations which blow up spectacularly in their own face (colonialist African intervention of "TchVK Wagner") and many others. Imagine if and when such a link would be discovered what kind of damage this would do to the Russian reputation worldwide (not even mentioning the current Ukraine disaster)
Seems like the contarian children are still in power in Russia.
Great vid. Love to see similar analysts of other countries.. esp among top players… i would like to follow the road race down to 2nm ..and beyond?
Excellent analysis, thank you👍
This is honestly one of the greatest TY channels! I sincerely thank you for sharing all of this knowledge with the world.
it is a propaganda channel
@@eng3d how so? Seems decently critical to me.
Отличный ролик, спасибо, крайне познавательно.
Very informative. Thank you!
Thankyou for a really interesting series of videos.
At an air show in Australia there was a large Russian transport plane my friends walked through, they lifted a panel cover and were surprised to see valves were normal electronics were expected.
The Russian were showing off how big the plane was.
All they could remember was valves.
That CAN be a deliberate choice. Valves do not fail in case of huge EMP from nuclear detonations...microchips will unless they are extremely well protected.
@@Kakker71 yep , could be.
sorry, you mean valves as in hydraulic controls where electronic controls are expected?
@@jorggggggg no, vacuum tubes in electronics but called valves in the UK I think
@@jorggggggg vacuum tubes that glow.
The electrical charge is changed in a controlled way to control the electrons flowing through it.
High voltage and wasteful of energy.
Very old technology, replaced with transitors in the West.
Don't forget that Russia has an almost stranglehold on a couple of vital substances needed for the very top-end integrated circuits. I have not yet heard of them being sanctioned, but, if Russia goes into counter-sanctions, there may well be a sudden reduction in all top-end processors.
That could be a problem. Russia is sitting on a wealth of natural resources. Which are used in high end ICs?
While they are used, Russia simply is the ones exploiting those natural recourses, they exist in other places around the globe and enough demand would drive those countries to start to tap into it. Look at lithium in the salton sea in California. Most of it comes from Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia, but as they have increased prices and costs of shipping have increased the salton sea is being tapped for domestic production.
@@erikanders3343 the way Californian politicians talk, I figured they'd rather eat a Russian nuke than defile their state with a new lithium mine. It's good to see more domestic production and less globalism.
I don't think they will mandate counter sanctions. They have already threatened the west against telling him to stick his gas and oil. They need all the business they can get to keep the economy running in any semblance of normality. Ordinary Russians are already dismayed at what is happening. I managed to get some messages before they shut down Facebook there. I know people in Russia that I have known for like 20 years and they were genuinely surprised that this wasn't just some little small operation, and started freaking out with me asking if I was joking around with them.
@@erikanders3343 Australia also has massive reserves of rare earths, the only thing stopping them being exploited are the greenies blocking permits. Same as with the US and Canada in effect.
I wonder about short term consumables like silicon crystals and photoresist. And packaging supplies like leadframes, bondwires and mold compound.
some food for thought ...
the massive costs associated with modern cleanrooms comes into play below 45nm... so 65nm could be signs of issue starting on that side, though its more likely the optics
also, commercial and military applications are two different beasts, suffice to say theres very few anti air or cruise missiles that fit in your pocket like a smartphone...and radar arrays require a lot of power, so are bulky devices regardless of chips used.. very few require very tiny low power devices as a specific requirement (like scopes/ir headgear etc)
chip design to maximise fixed function capability is the main objective for military design as it also relies on redundancy, not on getting one chip to do everything like commercial cpu's ...
Wonderful content. Is it true that TSMC is down at 5 nm. Even Chinese fabs are nowhere near to that.
The leading edge node is 3nm for next year
@@aravindpallippara1577 wow progress never stops.
@@fredfrond6148 the problem is the benefits of moving from one node to next is becoming marginal - apple m1 is 5nm, however while it's performance per watts is exceptional, from a raw computing standpoint it's less performant than an amd 5600x a 7nm chip that does draw 3 times the power (65W vs 20W) 5600x is a mid grade offering from amd (5950x the top offering roughly has 3 times the cores as 5600x)
@@aravindpallippara1577 damn you have just dragged me into water that is above my head. I was looking at buying an apple precisely because of the m1 chip. But obviously that makes no sense if I want a desktop. Thanks.
@@fredfrond6148 Honestly though, as much as I am an amd fanboy - get an intel 12the gen, especially any offering that has the 6 performance cores (12600 I believe), the performance improvement in lightly threaded applications is staggering (well like 15% more raw performance or so - still extremely huge when we are dealing with processors) - just make sure you have a beefy aftermarket cooler if you do multithreaded stuff like rendering, compilations
Russia could build chips for their own military equipment, just not the smallest & most advanced ~5-7nm "smartphone & notebook" chips.
But it's still proly easier to outsource it to China or other asian chip producing country than building your own factory.
military needs stuff that can survive at least emp ...thats old tech electron tube but more modern version.
Not for their most advanced weaponry like precision missiles and their modern fighter jets
Just check the news. We found all the crap in rockets and drones...
...they don't need to make the investment to produce such chips, those chips will always have a low return on investment and the West will always make them. The whole point is to protect that market and thereby maximize and collect the limited ROI that they do have.
Also in certain areas even parochial interest do want standardization as they make more money on the software than they would ever make on the hardware. Don't forget there are many layers stacked on top of x86/x64 chips, ARMs and what-not. All of those layers are targets for 2nd and 3rd party actors.
@@NoShame86 no, space is plenty in those vs a smartphone
I remember when we sold that 110 and 130 nanometer equipment to Angstrom. It was very unclear (at least to me) what they actually thought they were going to do with it. But we were happy to collect some cash.
Your channel is great. Thanks for your videos.
TSMC buy their lithographic machines from ASML. ASML works 24/7 and yet they can't fulfill their customer's needs. ASML is ages ahead of competition because they invested in NL universities and got some really brilliant minds.
And most of foreigh students there are from?
Let me help, big country asociated whit dragon in Asia...
@@ljubomirculibrk4097 Number one is Dutch then Indian and maybe it's Chinese after that. In general tho there are quite brilliant students from all over the world. Maybe a 5-10% is Chinese in that domain.
ASML is like a monopoly in their sector?
@@doremon2006 I will copy paste what I've already suspected/known :P
"While Nikon, in Japan, is still a competitor in that market, ASML is the only option for EUV. Experts say it could take decades for any other company to catch up, both because of ASML's proprietary technology and because it's built complex, often exclusive, deals with hundreds of suppliers"
TSMC in Taiwan is crucial for the world at THIS moment. But in 10?? years this might be very different because the major players China and the USA realize it's important to have this capacity inside their borders.
The U.S. is already working on this. China is doubtless doing the same. Taiwan may need to start investing in their army more because their monopoly lasts only until either or both don't need them.
Drones need chips.
Very well researched! 😀
One thing I feel they could really capitalize on is the the growing interest in consumer-grade, open source RISC-V chips.
Having Russia produce the only trustworthy chips out there would be the ultimate irony.
All those oligarchs certainly have the money to create such an industry basically from nothing, but it seems they'd rather spend it on buying Western sports clubs instead of becoming the next silicon valley.
The HAD enough money. A billion rubles is worth about 10 million dollars today. Sure, they might have hard currency reserves of dollars and euros, but now they can’t buy the necessary equipment on the open market. I don’t know what that does to the price, but I’m pretty sure there’s a substantial mark up on the black market.
@@MarcosElMalo2 No I mean they have billions calculated in dollars. They're pretty much as rich as the the Sheiks in Saude Arabia.
@@MarcosElMalo2 They can't obtain it through a third party in China?
The oligarchs prefer to just funnel the government subsidies to their bank accounts.
As for they could’ve been another Silicon Valley….coulda woulda shoulda…but ain’t…and definitely not for a LOOONG time after February 24th
@@atomicskull6405 this would subject the Chinese third party to secondary sanctions. They have to resort to the grey/black market. Which of course is unreliable and totally not feasible if you need to run a data center for example, and need to have a steady stream of products always ready to ship at a moments notice.
... or maybe the 65nm flow is only for national security related IC programs, so they'll just keep it under wraps...
Well done research and drawn conclusion. Thumbs up to author. I would add that corruption and nepotism, thriving in ruling class of Russia or Putins mates, also contributed to bad luck of Zelenograd factories.
These tiny chips are great for consumer goods like cell phones but in my experience the larger chips are much more robust and better suited for harsh environments, but not cost effective.
And they draw sooo much energy. Bad if you need mobile IC's.
@@heinzb8219But perfect if you want to build a satellite, or a missile...
The USSR dissolving only set it farther behind the west because they stopped caring about actually developing domestic industry and instead just started to care about what is most profitable, and since Russian semiconductors were more expensive for less performance, it was more profitable just to dismantle manufacturing capabilities and import them, causing Russia's economy to undergo deindustrialization and become an import-oriented economy, at least until 2003 when it started to turn away from that, which also coincides with its economic recovery. These sanctions will likely lead Russia moving more and more towards a Chinese-style economy which will help accelerate industrial development, albeit it likely still will not catch up to things like TMSC for a long time since that would require a miracle.
No,Russias are very poor at innovating ,they will keep sinking. Just a question of how much damage they do in their death throes.
@@paulbedichek2679 Russophobia won't save your declining empire.
@@paulbedichek2679 It was sinking in the eyes of Poland as far as the written history of the two goes, meaning hundreds of years. And remember: each World War was started with division of Poland.
@@ShadeAKAhayate Don't tell lies, it doesn't help your case. WW1 had nothing to do with Poland, because Poland didn't even flipping exist. It was 1/2 in Tsarist Russia and 1/2 in Germany.
главное создать чипы для оружия ,а потом с оружием забрать чипы для игр ;)
...In 1974, the first microcomputers based on universal microprocessors were developed. Sectional processors of the K532 and K536 series (which appeared in the same year) made it possible to manufacture machines with a capacity of up to 16-32 bits. So there were 16-bit micro-computers. In 1977, the analog Intel 8080 was released - an 8-bit K580IK80 processor. He then became the basis for the creation of a number of PC models and micro-computers. Two years later, the world's first 16-bit single-chip micro-computer, the K1801E1, was developed. Based on the K1801BE1 in 1981, the K1801BM (a single-chip 16-bit microprocessor) was created...
Impressive article, well done
Thanks for the indepth research I always wanted to know how Russia got their hands on micro chips when they were being sanctioned so hard.
Well, thanks to the sanctions now we finally have solid reason to develop this area
@@grdev3066 go for it tovarisch
@@grdev3066 or they (you) could - I don’t know - stop invading your neighbors and become part of the family of free nations that want to do business with and help one another?
@@codycast What family of free nations?
@@limanac111 modern western liberal democracies that don’t invade their neighbors and threaten the safety of the planet.
But I’m sure you know this and are trying to make a counterpoint designed as a question.
One thing to note. Node sizes are not comparable to one another manufacturer. "If" Intel had their 10nm node ready back in 2016, it would of took TSMC 4 years to bring out the 7nm node to become a competitor to intel. That said, "If" that was the case, then Intel no doubt would be on 10nm++++ by now.
What will be interesting is Intel 7nm vs TSMC 3nm in 2023. (Moral of the story, lower nm doesn't always mean better performance when comparing different manufactures against each other).
Intel recently rename their nodes so that they are comparable to TSMC.
@@kazedcat simply renaming their chips doesn't change things, if Intel's chips are not the same size as TSMC's chips, it will struggle to compete unless it implements structural differences that make size less of a factor.
@@ernestmac13 since before the 22nm, the nuimbers don't refer to gate size. today it's only a number to differentiate processes rather than an actual dimension.
Intel's 14nm is almost comparable to TSMC's 7 under the electron microscope, yet one is twice the other..
I mean.. you wouldn't pump 1.5V of Vcore into a 7nm ryzen otherwise :)
-would of took-
*would have taken
Just curious: What's your first language?
@@ledoynier3694 Thats true , but problem is that TSMC is leading in semicoductor either way. For nothing current Intel Chips are manufactured by TSMC. IT was Thanks to TSMC that AMD managed to produce a processor that took Down Intel for many years. Now TSMC is working with 2nm process , So intel will never catchup TSMC. Unfortunately however TSMC do have a weakness and is their Government politics. They agreed to build their most advanced Fabs to America , just in case of a war with China and something else.
Eventually TSMC is giving US the rope , American need to hang by the neck TSMC
I remember in the early 90s, musicians couldn't get enough of the vacuum tubes from the former USSR! For technical reasons, tube amplifiers are superior to solid-state, but there just wasn't enough demand from musicians and audiophiles to continue production. But the ex-USSR computing industry came through for them.
a really good video. Thanks
You should take into account that Western industry is pretty creative in assigning node names to their technologies. Even 10nm AMD is pretty different from 10nm Intel.
Yep, more like FAKEnm.
TSMC have mastered chip production and and with the support of Taiwan it is incredibly hard to compete with.
Excellent report
A 152mm howitzer doesn't need cutting edge chips, but a T-90M or Iskander do. That is, if they are to be made to 2021 standards.
I'll leave only one question. Who is suppliers of TSMC.
As always "necessity is the mother of invention", so I wonder if in the long run this will create a TSMC competitor. Also this would merge the efforts of both Russia and China to produce microchips.
I doubt such cooperations are possible the culture language gap is way too big between china and Russia. Without support from the rest of the would it would likely drag china down with secondary sanctions.
@@WILLPORKER US can't sanction china. You know why
@@WILLPORKER what "culture language gap"?
@@WILLPORKER the US sanctionning china means the immediate demise of petro dollar my friend
@@niyazzmoithu20 they've already been sanctioned once in the trade war... And china was losing hard until the wuflu outbreak
btw, 180nm chips are not as bad as they sound, they are widely used in lots of electronics, just not in computers.
Of course can, question only during which amount of time
Taiwan as a nation is hard pressed to exert millitary power or political power or even economic power for the most part but through TSMC, taiwan can exert global power that rivals some of the best. Thats cool.
Until China steps in and then things get messy.
TSMC needs to urgently build fabs to disperse production, having all your eggs in one basket is not acceptable any longer.
So... all China needs to do is simply threatening to destroy the TSMC Fab in Taiwan to keep Taiwan under leash? Seems like a double edged sword.
@@RobBCactive TSMC has a large number of domestic (Taiwanese) fabs but also have a few in China and the US. They're building new large fabs in Arizona and Germany IIRC. I can imagine the US would consider the strategic importance of Taiwanese manufacturing if China threatens to invade.
@@graham1034 Yes that's true but they have to disperse far more than already planned. The chip foundry market has consolidated and geopolitical factors and the exposed supply chain tempts malevolent actors to gamble
They have tons of obsolete computers with incredibly beautiful keyboards that simply don't get manufactured anymore. Each of those retro keyboards would sell for hundreds of US dollars. That smells like an opportunity for someone.
I'll get on a plane to Moscow immediately
Putins new job in a few months time
@@jthunders Feel free to get kicked by some kind of sanctions later. Although it will be not necessary - now Russian regime is spiraling down into North Korea 2.0. No one will allow you to get in soon. Neither get something out of there.
@@jthunders Welcome, comrade!
they have china beside them..
I enjoyed this.
Thank you.
The importance of TSMC for entire world is amazing. Just as the complexity of creating microchips in a first place. It's all a very interestic topic, thank you for info.
For their needs they can still buy from SMIC, Chinese manufacturer (not as advanced but still capable). Russia is not a big importer of electronics, their economy doesn't rely on them that much. Also another thing, TSMC ain't safe either, should China decide to invade.
Tsmc has 5 fabs almost built in phoenix
@@larryc1616 But it's main base of operations is still in Taiwan.
@@larryc1616 those are less advanced than the ones in Taiwan. Besides, TSMC 3nm fabs will go live earlier in Taiwan than TSMC 5nm fabs in Arizona.
@@larryc1616 I think you mean almost started to build in phoenix
It is a big question wether SMIC can produce a big chip like the Baikal-S. They are starting with 14nm, but that doesn't mean they can produce a 48 core chip. Further, I doubt SMIC will want to burn their hands, because SMIC depends on a lot of foreign suppliers. If they end up on a blacklist it is game over for SMIC.
According to online data the main chip imports for Russia during the period between 2017 and now are in fact from Infineon (Germany). Most memory imports are from Samsung and Micron/Elpida. TSMC are not even in the top 10 of their imports - over the past 5 years Russia has imported 100 million worth of semiconductors from TSMC, that's nothing. Consider TSMCs revenue for 2020 (hell even pre-covid 2019) only and you'll realize Russia is probably one of their weakest clients. Baikal and other manufacturers are absolutely irrelevant both in Russia and worldwide, so much so that even their websites are still under construction.
Russia doesn't need to manufacture when they can trade raw materials in return for ready-made chips with custom IMS from, for example, China.
Why Russia can't replace TSMC?
The answer is simple - because they never really needed them.
Do you need bleading edge for advance technology? I read some where f-22 uses intel i960 processors early 90s processor and it’s still the most bleeding edge fighter plane in the sky.
How do you know that they use only 1% of the data from their sensors ?
hey great video, but sorry if this is a dumb question but why is TSMC so far ahead of everyone else in the chip market?
TMSC isn't that far ahead from the competition, for example Samsung is very competative at the moment and Intel is catching up again. The videomaker should have replaced TSMC by ASML.
They were smart and invested in that technology...
India had the chance to invest that technology but the gov said.. why should we help you with your business...
I expect it will just be imported via China. Similar to how Iran imports sanctioned goods via Turkey.
Why would China help Russia? they hate each other,th US and EU can sanction China when Russia dissolves China ca benefit greatly by taking choice parts it wants. So far China or anyone hasn't shipped electronics to Russia. China can see both the sections and the destruction of the corrupt Russia military,China's military is far more corrupt they have their own industries, gulags ,and territories. Taiwan would beat China in a hands up fight.
Nice video!
The architecture of the Elbrus chips and their x86 compatibility layer are very interesting. Transmeta is probably the closest thing I'm aware of, but unlike Transmeta, Elbrus put more emphasis on performance and software bug tolerance over energy efficiency which led to some different design choices.
If it wasn't for the outdated manufacturing process, those chips could be (could've been?)
pretty competitive with the major CPU producers, in my understanding.
Good Morning!!! Would you discuss about N3E process by TSMC in detail? Thanks!
Hmm, I'm just thinking about what would happen if TSMC would get bombed to ground for whatever reason? Chip prices would go through the roof I guess.
Samsung would be the happiest.
All of the following is assuming China is the one doing the bombing. While Chip prices would go through the roof, Samsung and Intel would get rich instantly overnight as their fab capacity would become imperative going forward. Construction on TSMC's US facilities would rapidly be expedited while the rest of TSMC's fabs in Taiwan would be forcibly made inoperable with whatever equipment they can transport to the US would be transported. TSMC would move to the US. My guess is Intel would be forced to fully open up their fab capacity by the US government as well. Eventually though, global capacity would be restored as more and more fabs in the US, Japan, and South Korea come online. However, there would be a significant supply chain disruption as TSMC would go offline in the mean time.
@@wakannnai1 Looks like a good plan for US to bomb taiwan and blame china, he.
@@wakannnai1 DPRK can strike U.S bases and the infrastructure of occupied South Korea.
@@brujua7 And risk disrupting the flow of global chips and Trillions of dollars worth of economic value in the US due to a large number of fabless semiconductor companies in the US? That would never happen.
That is until China forces them to do it. China was building up all that infrastructure in Ukraine for years in preparation for Russia taking out the middle man.
Thanks for using easy english to understand and speking slowly.
If we see Malaysia here in the list at 2.30 isn't it because the table takes into account backend=packaging locations instead of frontend=fabs ? Other Asia would then probably be Philippines. If they were talking about front ends in this chart I would expect tsmc s share to be way bigger...