What also adds to the challenge facing civilisations is - wear and tear. In today's terms - no system stays in one piece unless repaired continuously - and that means as if we have to start the Industrial Revolution from scratch every morning. “In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most. No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future” (2017).
This talk was given in 2007. You can figure that out by what he says at 8:19. He makes a blunder at 17:50 claiming that a 2 to 1 return on energy means 2 barrels of oil costs 3 barrels of oil.
Did you even learn anything from the talk, his entire work is on how complex societies collapse, not how societies learn from past mistakes and make some utopia. We're already mid collapse, and because of globalization, so is the rest of the world
Its 2021 and we haven't reached peak oil. Will it come much later in the 2030s? Fracking has taken recoverability much further, and I'm certain it won't be the last innovation to extend recoverability.
wroteEven as Catton's book did not make an impact on the thousands of well meaning economists, scientists, industrialists and politicians, it panned out to show how disaster prone and shortsighted we are, as a species. The book does not roll out prophecies - instead it explains that the of population, consumption, emissions, pollution, production and industry would lead to an eventual overall collapse, , before returning to normalcy (stability).
7:42 The first chart should compare the EROI of solar, wind and fossil fuels. The EROI of solar is absolutely abysmal. The energy payback time according to google is anywhere between 6 and 10 years based on a bunch of variables such as where and what type of panels. Even assuming a 30 year lifespan, it's between 3 and 6. In my mind, it is questionable that new panels made in the last 5 years will last 30 years. They are 1/10th the price of panels made in 1992. While productivity gains, cheap Chinese labor and scale have helped, lower build quality is probably also a main driver of these lower prices. Anyone remember the separating panels made in China like 10 or 12 years ago? Yeah, almost all of them had to be replaced.
... as a German Biologist and Pythagorean - it is our Self Domestication that creates a new Species - Homo Domesticus- who is creating a synthetic Techno Sphere - and the Bio Sphere - BIOS TOPOS has only value as cosmetics, vacation, adventure ... We are used to have anything we wish and dream instantly easily available - as long some one gives us Credit enough to pay for it. The Credit Business drives the madness. As a Biologist I see no way to ever STOP that - and certainly never to repair any of the damages. We blameshift Others - against whom we existentially need to protect us and start Prevention Wars. Look at the Middle East, Lebanon, Syria - the endless destruction of even the same Religion fighting wars of Terror with total extinction. I have no hope for Homo Domesticus. Self Extinction is unpreventable....
TTainter's work on energy production isn't worth a penny. He charted peak production of 32M barrels per year for 2010, (12:20) and then rapit declining, while actual production of liquid carbonates today, 2023, is 82.3M barrels per DAILY according to I:WCOP.. What does that say about the other thematic sectors that span the scope of his work?
This is a strange lecture. First, it has excellent references, now I know where this whole EROEI fetish is coming from. I also remember the shockwave of ideas like this back then in 2007, it was definitely in the air in certain circles that decline may be imminent. Second, the lecture is interspersed with teeny-tiny errors here and there that indeed diminish things, not the overall conclusion of course, but things like the timescale, so this also shows why some people think this is a slappy way to use science.
I understand some of Tainter's perspective. But his excursion into Roman history, and into his hypothesis about high and low energy gain runs into Peter Linebaugh's excursion into the enclosing of the commons and how people once lived on the land and had lived for millennia. This isn't to say that foolish notions did not lead to severe and fundamental changes to the land and hence the way to live on it. The chopping down of forests is the first evil. People may use what is in the forest, and this includes its trees, but not in such a way as to destroy the forest itself. Part of the delight in life is to be surrounded by it, this includes forests. The problem with his way of thinking is that it uses electricity and its generation as the only form of energy when we know that up until a few hundred years ago, there was no electricity except as lightning. It's a wonderful thing, but we did quite well without it and I don't think we truly need that much of it. We must find ways to live using as little electricity as possible by using design principles that utilize natural processes while returning to using the original solar powered engine know as muscle power. Physical use of the body is necessary for health. People have to go exercise because they don't use their bodies in the service of their needs, which doesn't require all the much work at all. And your time was totally your own. You could do with your time whatever you wanted. And people did wonderful things with their time. They created beautiful things, sang songs, developed a wonderful culture, and had deep bonds with each other. So, the wrap up this journey down a rabbit hole, this business with energy is based on a false notion. Humans can eat and live directly from the land. All that's needed is a little input of our energy and the return on investment is a long life and for generations in perpetuity.
Life without electricity ( and without modern medicines, especially antibiotics and painkillers) was pretty miserable for many many people. And, poor things, they didn’t have the Internet......😉
There was a whole lot of hardship in the pre industrial age. Malthus and Ricardo ("iron law of wages") described it accurately. Occasionally, some catastrophe, usually a plague or famine, would kill off a large part of the population which would make the survivors somewhat more prosperous for a while, but then the population would rise again and living standards would decline again. About a third of children born would die by the age of 6, and about 47% before the age of 20, although this was a blessing in disguise genetically speaking.
Pretty dumb comment, do you want to live with little to no electric? Which means no cell towers hence no cellphone with Internet. If you wouldn't downt recommend it as govt policy
@@Knaeben Water recycles. Cake is made from renewables. Oil is finite (no matter what some wishful thinkers may tell you, there is no infinite, self - renewing supply of inorganic oil). In one sense, there will always be some oil in the ground, but at some point the amount of energy required to extract it will exceed the amount of energy supplied by the oil extracted. The juice won't be worth the squeeze.
If we had not reached peak oil there would not be such a scramble for marginal resources like oil sands and fracking (tight oil). These are only being exploited now because the discovery rate of conventional oil has collapsed.
They stabilize it through the house of cards called financing. In 1980 we had the choice to conserve or spend resources like wild pigs. We chose to roll with the pigs. Live fast and short and die hard.
![Gunna - HIM ALL ALONG [Official Visualizer]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/HiCxoDeo0hc/mqdefault.jpg)
What also adds to the challenge facing civilisations is - wear and tear.
In today's terms - no system stays in one piece unless repaired continuously - and that means as if we have to start the Industrial Revolution from scratch every morning.
“In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future” (2017).
This talk was given in 2007. You can figure that out by what he says at 8:19. He makes a blunder at 17:50 claiming that a 2 to 1 return on energy means 2 barrels of oil costs 3 barrels of oil.
Fascinating lecture - from ants to the Roman Empire to us.
Great lecture. All students and governtment officials should view it.
Did you even learn anything from the talk, his entire work is on how complex societies collapse, not how societies learn from past mistakes and make some utopia. We're already mid collapse, and because of globalization, so is the rest of the world
"inflation rates like 1930s Germany" -- 1920s, not 1930s. German inflation peaked in 1923.
Its 2021 and we haven't reached peak oil. Will it come much later in the 2030s? Fracking has taken recoverability much further, and I'm certain it won't be the last innovation to extend recoverability.
Fracking extended nothing and in fact added to the imminent collapse of our planet.
wroteEven as Catton's book did not make an impact on the thousands of well meaning economists, scientists, industrialists and politicians, it panned out to show how disaster prone and shortsighted we are, as a
species. The book does not roll out prophecies - instead it explains that the of population, consumption, emissions, pollution, production and industry would lead to an eventual overall collapse, , before returning to normalcy (stability).
7:42 The first chart should compare the EROI of solar, wind and fossil fuels.
The EROI of solar is absolutely abysmal. The energy payback time according to google is anywhere between 6 and 10 years based on a bunch of variables such as where and what type of panels. Even assuming a 30 year lifespan, it's between 3 and 6. In my mind, it is questionable that new panels made in the last 5 years will last 30 years. They are 1/10th the price of panels made in 1992. While productivity gains, cheap Chinese labor and scale have helped, lower build quality is probably also a main driver of these lower prices.
Anyone remember the separating panels made in China like 10 or 12 years ago? Yeah, almost all of them had to be replaced.
Low gain -> China
High gain -> USA
So the future of our society will be made of equality and authority.
... as a German Biologist and Pythagorean - it is our Self Domestication that creates a new Species - Homo Domesticus- who is creating a synthetic Techno Sphere - and the Bio Sphere - BIOS TOPOS has only value as cosmetics, vacation, adventure ... We are used to have anything we wish and dream instantly easily available - as long some one gives us Credit enough to pay for it. The Credit Business drives the madness. As a Biologist I see no way to ever STOP that - and certainly never to repair any of the damages. We blameshift Others - against whom we existentially need to protect us and start Prevention Wars. Look at the Middle East, Lebanon, Syria - the endless destruction of even the same Religion fighting wars of Terror with total extinction. I have no hope for Homo Domesticus. Self Extinction is unpreventable....
The hydrogen-renewable economy is fully capable of upgrading global energy networks.
ROFL. The oil apologists have not watched this lecture. Most of it seems to have been too hard for them to understand.
TTainter's work on energy production isn't worth a penny.
He charted peak production of 32M barrels per year for 2010,
(12:20) and then rapit declining, while actual production of
liquid carbonates today, 2023, is 82.3M barrels per DAILY
according to I:WCOP..
What does that say about the other thematic sectors that
span the scope of his work?
56:25
Damn, I feel special now even though I ain't a student :(
This is a strange lecture. First, it has excellent references, now I know where this whole EROEI fetish is coming from. I also remember the shockwave of ideas like this back then in 2007, it was definitely in the air in certain circles that decline may be imminent. Second, the lecture is interspersed with teeny-tiny errors here and there that indeed diminish things, not the overall conclusion of course, but things like the timescale, so this also shows why some people think this is a slappy way to use science.
I understand some of Tainter's perspective. But his excursion into Roman history, and into his hypothesis about high and low energy gain runs into Peter Linebaugh's excursion into the enclosing of the commons and how people once lived on the land and had lived for millennia. This isn't to say that foolish notions did not lead to severe and fundamental changes to the land and hence the way to live on it. The chopping down of forests is the first evil. People may use what is in the forest, and this includes its trees, but not in such a way as to destroy the forest itself. Part of the delight in life is to be surrounded by it, this includes forests. The problem with his way of thinking is that it uses electricity and its generation as the only form of energy when we know that up until a few hundred years ago, there was no electricity except as lightning. It's a wonderful thing, but we did quite well without it and I don't think we truly need that much of it. We must find ways to live using as little electricity as possible by using design principles that utilize natural processes while returning to using the original solar powered engine know as muscle power. Physical use of the body is necessary for health. People have to go exercise because they don't use their bodies in the service of their needs, which doesn't require all the much work at all. And your time was totally your own. You could do with your time whatever you wanted. And people did wonderful things with their time. They created beautiful things, sang songs, developed a wonderful culture, and had deep bonds with each other. So, the wrap up this journey down a rabbit hole, this business with energy is based on a false notion. Humans can eat and live directly from the land. All that's needed is a little input of our energy and the return on investment is a long life and for generations in perpetuity.
Life without electricity ( and without modern medicines, especially antibiotics and painkillers) was pretty miserable for many many people. And, poor things, they didn’t have the Internet......😉
There was a whole lot of hardship in the pre industrial age. Malthus and Ricardo ("iron law of wages") described it accurately. Occasionally, some catastrophe, usually a plague or famine, would kill off a large part of the population which would make the survivors somewhat more prosperous for a while, but then the population would rise again and living standards would decline again. About a third of children born would die by the age of 6, and about 47% before the age of 20, although this was a blessing in disguise genetically speaking.
Pretty dumb comment, do you want to live with little to no electric? Which means no cell towers hence no cellphone with Internet. If you wouldn't downt recommend it as govt policy
focus on energy similar to ian morris' historometrics.
Also, Tim Allen sold the cocaine, and Marty Byrde laundered the money.
Perhaps the assumption we will run out of oil is a flawed assumption.
Just like the assumption we will never run out of water or cake.
@@Knaeben exactly!
@@Knaeben Water recycles. Cake is made from renewables. Oil is finite (no matter what some wishful thinkers may tell you, there is no infinite, self - renewing supply of inorganic oil). In one sense, there will always be some oil in the ground, but at some point the amount of energy required to extract it will exceed the amount of energy supplied by the oil extracted. The juice won't be worth the squeeze.
9 hours movie
He has not forseen negative oil prices. Wish I could see his face in 2020.
Yes, it will delay the inevitable depletion.
Lol you are an idiot
@@mkkrupp2462 it will never be depleted you dunce
More volume, please?
try 2005
Peak oil has not been reached, just look at the oil price.
+Rick ZW How naive. Saudi Arabia is manipulating the oil price.
Peak Oil is about producion rate, not sales price.
If we had not reached peak oil there would not be such a scramble for marginal resources like oil sands and fracking (tight oil). These are only being exploited now because the discovery rate of conventional oil has collapsed.
They stabilize it through the house of cards called financing. In 1980 we had the choice to conserve or spend resources like wild pigs. We chose to roll with the pigs. Live fast and short and die hard.
Collapse is not very pog champ.
LOL Alarmist have given up guessing when the peak will come.
+Rick ZW Keep your head in the sand like a good little boy.
@@stephaniewilson3955 Ogga booga
Typical academic BS